{"t":"2026-09-19T23:39:35.670Z","v":2,"id":"7748d683-614b-47a8-9a20-81e2a9cf25f6","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Smoke I","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.00326207492709929,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.67,"year":1,"after":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":45,"treasury":39},"blend":0.1988,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-19T23:39:35.670Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Smoke I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Smoke I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Smoke I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":396},{"at":"2026-09-19T23:39:36.066Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Smoke I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Smoke I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":287}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"64a29e0a-ddf6-4e53-ba66-6cc823db421b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.84,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.05,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":287,"forecast":396},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-19T23:59:44.932Z","v":2,"id":"d9e3652f-789f-43aa-9547-96351c1ad0e2","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.505045397199875,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.69,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":42,"people":62,"treasury":50},"blend":0.2932,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-19T23:59:44.932Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.05,"3":0.59,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.11,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":396},{"at":"2026-09-19T23:59:45.329Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":287}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":2.31,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.28,"people":2.88,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":287,"forecast":396},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:00:06.672Z","v":2,"id":"5da51854-ce35-4991-98ce-f49f2848703d","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9309034897548771,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":68,"treasury":46},"blend":0.3692,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:06.672Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":62,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.14,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.65,"2":0.22,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":325},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:06.997Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":62,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"+3","church":"-6","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":315}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":49,"church":42,"people":62,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.28,"church":1.51,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.07,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":315,"forecast":325},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:00:11.349Z","v":2,"id":"f765f48b-87c1-4317-87bd-806b78024693","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.38644695930100403,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.82,"year":3,"after":{"army":55,"church":41,"people":65,"treasury":46},"blend":0.33359999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:11.349Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":68,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.29,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.34,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.5,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":335},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:11.685Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":68,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+6","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":279}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":68,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.88,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.52,"church":1.66,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":279,"forecast":335},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":6,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:00:21.390Z","v":2,"id":"8db5c575-e1bf-450d-8022-0f4dd85594b4","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.7690525391397369,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.03,"year":4,"after":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":66,"treasury":47},"blend":0.062,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:21.390Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":391},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:21.781Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":333}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":55,"church":41,"people":65,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.55,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.11,"people":1.97,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":333,"forecast":391},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:00:47.650Z","v":2,"id":"036feefe-be7f-4d97-afd2-9394f6741b05","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.7312592404142428,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.95,"year":5,"after":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":65,"treasury":52},"blend":0.3868,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:47.650Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":66,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.37,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.38,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":316},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:47.965Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":66,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":345}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":66,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.94,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.86,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":345,"forecast":316},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:00:58.015Z","v":2,"id":"eab92311-ef33-4ece-a754-ad796141eda1","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3009047745059166,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.93,"year":6,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":54,"treasury":48},"blend":0.3412,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:58.015Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":65,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.23,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.11,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":350},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:00:58.366Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":65,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":328}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":65,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.71,"people":1,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.97,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":328,"forecast":350},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:09.454Z","v":2,"id":"ac0c09d7-cce6-45c4-bd49-22c3ef8cd5ee","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.7046927522698341,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":50,"treasury":40},"blend":0.9872,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:09.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":54,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.15,"3":0.52,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.56,"2":0.09,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.75,"2":0.1,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":472},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:09.927Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":54,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"+3","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":393}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":54,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.24,"church":1.76,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.23,"church":1.6,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":393,"forecast":472},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:16.121Z","v":2,"id":"bd7d0bc9-e840-4399-ba2c-adca57f303ce","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.17763576847087714,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.73,"year":8,"after":{"army":52,"church":33,"people":38,"treasury":36},"blend":0.2692,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:16.121Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":50,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.22,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.28,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.89,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.62,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":314},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:16.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":50,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-5"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+4","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":305}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":50,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.52,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.36,"people":2.95,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":305,"forecast":314},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":4,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:32.000Z","v":2,"id":"fe1d48e6-7293-457d-b168-a381c73eff0d","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8519687964687475,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.12,"year":9,"after":{"army":54,"church":34,"people":42,"treasury":40},"blend":0.0496,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:32.000Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":38,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.71,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":340},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:32.340Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":38,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":282}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":52,"church":33,"people":38,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.8,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.03,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":282,"forecast":340},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:38.235Z","v":2,"id":"ed5a18ed-9d89-4299-95e0-2c3d13677134","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.74,"mock":false,"roll":0.9543173327937684,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.39,"year":10,"after":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":33,"treasury":37},"blend":0.614,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:38.235Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":42,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.68,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.22,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.11,"3":0.75,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.36,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":267},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:38.502Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":42,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"+2","church":"+8","people":"-10","treasury":"-4"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}}}},"latencyMs":351}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":54,"church":34,"people":42,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.2,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.69,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":3,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":351,"forecast":267},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":7,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":2,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:41.159Z","v":2,"id":"75c66f4a-a366-4b2d-929c-0e6ef890abc1","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.46,"mock":false,"roll":0.5166301327213656,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.02,"year":11,"after":{"army":60,"church":43,"people":30,"treasury":49},"blend":0.3016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:41.159Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":33,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.54,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.93,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:41.361Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":33,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"+2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":33,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.97,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":1.88,"people":1.69,"treasury":2.92}},"tokens":2570,"applied":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.07}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:43.840Z","v":2,"id":"2db54cf9-ef97-4d06-b552-01e1b43a6081","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5976924789385736,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":60,"church":45,"people":37,"treasury":58},"blend":0.3664,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:43.840Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":30,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.51,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.85,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.29,"3":0.65,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:44.052Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":30,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":60,"church":43,"people":30,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.63,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.08,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.64}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:46.524Z","v":2,"id":"dfade80a-cbfc-4256-bb66-b31db61d6b24","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.58,"mock":false,"roll":0.893102046978782,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.97,"year":13,"after":{"army":60,"church":45,"people":37,"treasury":63},"blend":0.7203999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:46.524Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":37,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.58,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:46.727Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":37,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":60,"church":45,"people":37,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.99,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.94,"people":1.93,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.16}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:48.967Z","v":2,"id":"68c6020f-ca59-414c-906f-224de4f6482f","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.9445998130568101,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.02,"year":14,"after":{"army":65,"church":54,"people":45,"treasury":61},"blend":0.045599999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:48.967Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":37,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.14,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.28,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.35,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.37,"4":0.58}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:49.146Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":37,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+4","church":"+8","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-8","church":"-16","people":"-16","treasury":"+18"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":60,"church":45,"people":37,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":0.69,"people":0.69,"treasury":3.5},"right":{"army":2.34,"church":2.69,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":5,"church":9,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-16,"people":-16,"treasury":18},"right":{"army":4,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:51.369Z","v":2,"id":"0c4ab058-e7c3-4a11-84b2-1760a04ad548","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.348777925702215,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":55,"church":49,"people":33,"treasury":48},"blend":0.37279999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:51.369Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":45,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.7,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.67,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.53,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:51.604Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":45,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-11","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":65,"church":54,"people":45,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.51,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.86},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.02,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:54.048Z","v":2,"id":"301ff039-1f8e-4007-9d91-6b3cd1a10462","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6811667713199072,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.03,"year":16,"after":{"army":65,"church":45,"people":26,"treasury":44},"blend":0.062,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:54.048Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":33,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.24,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.25,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:54.255Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":33,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+9","church":"-5","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":55,"church":49,"people":33,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.6,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.75,"church":1.62,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":10,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":9,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:56.936Z","v":2,"id":"1a2a4efd-a1c8-483a-a758-94c75c9e2e7b","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5052742317505885,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":63,"church":52,"people":31,"treasury":35},"blend":0.37279999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:56.936Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":26,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1882,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.19,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.44,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.31,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:57.101Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":26,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-14","treasury":"-10"},"Send grain":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":65,"church":45,"people":26,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.22,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.52,"people":2.35,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2571,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:01:59.758Z","v":2,"id":"d46a7d1a-0cb9-4947-a521-72308ebda7bb","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.35664957224095195,"step":12,"trap":0.09,"want":0.32,"year":18,"after":{"army":64,"church":53,"people":33,"treasury":36},"blend":0.128,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:59.758Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":31,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.09,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:01:59.926Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:01.880Z","v":2,"id":"6fa6347b-e466-4f1e-bcae-8cb66e8f5dea","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3154191424471693,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":64,"church":48,"people":21,"treasury":25},"blend":0.3664,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:01.880Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":33,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.25,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.63,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.89,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:02.046Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":33,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":64,"church":53,"people":33,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.54,"people":0.93,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.03,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:04.674Z","v":2,"id":"8d676646-d125-441e-a54e-783e702231bb","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2422524941910813,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.03,"year":20,"after":{"army":69,"church":49,"people":29,"treasury":34},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:04.674Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":21,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.66,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.22,"2":0.05,"3":0.52,"4":0.15}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.5,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.31,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.51,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.31,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:04.808Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":21,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+4","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-10","church":"+6","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":64,"church":48,"people":21,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":2.48,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.53},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.03,"people":2.6,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":5,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":6,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":4,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:07.065Z","v":2,"id":"33c88055-dea1-42de-8b27-21cfad443ff5","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.945029571343746,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.99,"year":21,"after":{"army":65,"church":51,"people":36,"treasury":37},"blend":0.3628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:07.065Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":29,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.63,"2":0.17,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.43,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.66,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.82,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:07.246Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":29,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-7","church":"-10","people":"-15","treasury":"-16"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":69,"church":49,"people":29,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.13,"people":0.72,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.08,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:09.544Z","v":2,"id":"0b12d2c9-a3fa-4e72-b9b6-eef98f91e5f1","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8283803593256824,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":61,"church":56,"people":49,"treasury":27},"blend":0.3856,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:09.544Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":36,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.19,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.38,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.74,"1":0.26,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.89,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:09.732Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":36,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-5","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+4","church":"-7","people":"-21","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":65,"church":51,"people":36,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.34,"church":1.44,"people":0.27,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":2.32,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-7,"people":-21,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:13.913Z","v":2,"id":"c01d13a5-83cd-4f66-93a4-12cc13d47091","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5517139028538947,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":58,"church":56,"people":47,"treasury":26},"blend":0.3592,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:13.913Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":49,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.4,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.72,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.66,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":292},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:14.205Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":49,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":347}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":61,"church":56,"people":49,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.49,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.9,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":347,"forecast":292},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:20.855Z","v":2,"id":"17ba6011-83be-4602-9a11-550cad2e9e8c","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.32,"mock":false,"roll":0.1493673916293059,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.98,"year":24,"after":{"army":58,"church":59,"people":37,"treasury":20},"blend":0.5576,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:20.855Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":47,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.07,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.42,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.29,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.46,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":388},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:21.243Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":47,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-11","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}}}},"latencyMs":400}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":58,"church":56,"people":47,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":2.19,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.34,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":400,"forecast":388},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-11,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.37}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:26.880Z","v":2,"id":"05863b2c-8adf-468b-b820-6c3433f3a827","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7139829535848043,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":25,"after":{"army":57,"church":61,"people":44,"treasury":25},"blend":0.3564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:26.880Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.32,"2":0.13,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.58,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.28,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.43,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":374},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:27.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-8","church":"-12","people":"-20","treasury":"-24"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":364}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":58,"church":59,"people":37,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":0.97,"people":0.3,"treasury":0.02},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.07,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":364,"forecast":374},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-12,"people":-20,"treasury":-24},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:30.612Z","v":2,"id":"ba19a7c9-a088-4a86-b814-e9a44d812650","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.5657411814595759,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.11,"year":26,"after":{"army":55,"church":65,"people":57,"treasury":22},"blend":0.59,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:30.612Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":44,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.63,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.65,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.48,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.49,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:30.838Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":44,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"+1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"},"Return it":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":57,"church":61,"people":44,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.27,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.58,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:33.499Z","v":2,"id":"fba2f918-55d0-467e-8703-aa1fdfd83ff2","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5440034481291625,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.05,"year":27,"after":{"army":51,"church":63,"people":51,"treasury":21},"blend":0.0308,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:33.499Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":57,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.38,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.54,"2":0.22,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.18,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.59,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.14,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.27,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:33.691Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":57,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-2"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":269}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":55,"church":65,"people":57,"treasury":22},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.69,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.77,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":269,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:36.543Z","v":2,"id":"97231799-0b78-4ed5-943b-40476ee5746a","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6415954528641932,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.97,"year":28,"after":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":52,"treasury":18},"blend":0.4004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:36.543Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":51,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.15,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.07,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:36.724Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":51,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+3"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":51,"church":63,"people":51,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.86,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.98,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:39.579Z","v":2,"id":"451d8918-7ed4-4a88-a9e1-72ac837affcf","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9766893188717496,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":29,"after":{"army":48,"church":65,"people":57,"treasury":19},"blend":0.36,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:39.579Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.67,"2":0.13,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.48,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.72,"1":0.28,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.59,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":315},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:39.894Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-15","treasury":"-20"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":52,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.37,"people":0.76,"treasury":0.3},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":2,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":315},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:42.591Z","v":2,"id":"a6731899-1a53-458a-81f4-25d18506274d","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6812469886240966,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":39,"church":66,"people":66,"treasury":20},"blend":0.36,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:42.591Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.03,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.69,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.16,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.56,"2":0.16,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.41,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":412},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:43.003Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+4","church":"-7","people":"-16","treasury":"-7"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-10","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":236}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":48,"church":65,"people":57,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.34,"church":1.43,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":1.2,"church":2.01,"people":2.64,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":236,"forecast":412},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:45.521Z","v":2,"id":"f37a7ae8-a68a-4d25-adc3-c405248da97c","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.6018677719300156,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.08,"year":31,"after":{"army":44,"church":61,"people":58,"treasury":9},"blend":0.5920000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:45.521Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.36,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.51,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.36,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.55,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.41,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.74,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:45.679Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-9","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":39,"church":66,"people":66,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.96,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.32,"church":1.53,"people":1.27,"treasury":0.97}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":4,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:53.313Z","v":2,"id":"b4201040-5400-4ce3-9e36-7c5ca68cde8c","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5377720286365182,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.03,"year":32,"after":{"army":44,"church":66,"people":58,"treasury":7},"blend":0.010799999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:53.313Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.17,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.37,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.5,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.66,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.53,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.19,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":327},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:53.640Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-10","church":"+6","people":"-6","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":316}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":44,"church":61,"people":58,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.49,"people":1.53,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.34,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":316,"forecast":327},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:02:56.705Z","v":2,"id":"8249c2bb-9cf5-4e0e-9861-de426414ed00","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4520509690173202,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.95,"year":33,"after":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":16},"blend":0.982,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:56.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.49,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.82,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.31,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.5,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.15,"2":0.04,"3":0.6,"4":0.15}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.52,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:02:56.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-14","people":"-11","treasury":"+8"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-3","church":"+8","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":44,"church":66,"people":58,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":0.85,"people":1.12,"treasury":2.64},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.66,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-10,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-14,"people":-11,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:03:00.660Z","v":2,"id":"fce1cc63-8b99-462c-8495-41afafd2e3a7","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7598176265926557,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.67,"year":34,"after":{"army":44,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":15},"blend":0.2412,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:00.660Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.47,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:00.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.87,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.32},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.95,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:03:03.379Z","v":2,"id":"59f72f80-ff53-476a-9911-13d954d31072","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.13102120938168027,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.58,"year":35,"after":{"army":39,"church":54,"people":34,"treasury":2},"blend":0.20879999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:03.379Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.33,"2":0.09,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.77,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.1,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.76,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.61,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:03.620Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"+1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-15","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":44,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":2,"people":0.79,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.37,"people":2.83,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":241},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T00:03:06.806Z","v":2,"id":"2575fb8f-4563-4971-bb54-747de8e10636","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Leopold I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.32086881305070647,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.87,"year":36,"after":{"army":39,"church":60,"people":34,"treasury":0},"blend":0.3196,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:06.806Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Leopold I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T00:03:06.987Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Leopold I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"-7","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"27526b2a-8754-4726-b540-9028d911de38","before":{"army":39,"church":54,"people":34,"treasury":2},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.19,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.39,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2665,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":-7,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:15:39.524Z","v":3,"id":"0aedebb5-4b28-4c5f-b4a9-caeac3d1beee","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Hildegard II","wisdom":0.85},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.31301314976166217,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":41,"people":59,"treasury":48},"blend":0.16700000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:15:39.524Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 85% of the time.","description":"Hildegard II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.34,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.22,"2":0.04,"3":0.54,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.56,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"3":0.75,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.49,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.37,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":366},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:15:39.891Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 85% of the time.","description":"Hildegard II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"+2","people":"-17","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-5","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":357}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5ddb69ca-ae8b-406a-a82e-f15e5c1c1c8f","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.16,"people":0.6,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":1.14,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":357,"forecast":366},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":2,"people":-17,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:15:42.855Z","v":3,"id":"1ac0c8d2-22b4-4975-8675-d5b38b42f597","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7408897810830268,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.42,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":54,"treasury":58},"blend":0.16,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:15:42.855Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.65,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:15:43.024Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f46a294f-df09-48b6-a923-fa4985097863","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.89,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.03,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:17:47.821Z","v":3,"id":"31a429f2-da06-47dd-b376-c2d550b161f2","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.84},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5801017122680909,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.91,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":54,"people":57,"treasury":57},"blend":0.15400000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:17:47.821Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 84% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.3,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.73,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.41,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":333},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:17:48.154Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 84% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-4","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-12"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":290}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d161eab2-d797-4c36-9b89-3d3dcffaf25f","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1,"people":0.67,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.23,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":290,"forecast":333},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:17:51.579Z","v":3,"id":"27b398e7-e1f4-48ab-81a3-add1e9f608ec","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.84},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9750715001405583,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.02,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":59},"blend":0.0116,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:17:51.579Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":57,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 84% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.88,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:17:51.786Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":57,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 84% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d161eab2-d797-4c36-9b89-3d3dcffaf25f","before":{"army":50,"church":54,"people":57,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.95,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.03,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2579,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:18:35.137Z","v":3,"id":"e54dc14a-a1b8-4246-be6f-f161fbe07997","card":{"i":null,"tag":"custom","speaker":null,"message":null,"left":null,"right":null},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.84},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.1477310996529062,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.96,"year":3,"after":{"army":46,"church":52,"people":52,"treasury":54},"blend":0.15360000000000001,"calls":null,"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d161eab2-d797-4c36-9b89-3d3dcffaf25f","before":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.7,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.86,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":303,"forecast":361},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:07.109Z","v":3,"id":"f2df304d-df70-47b0-a43b-26ea0a708498","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8035058712682988,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":56},"blend":0.015600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:07.109Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.86,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.91,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":426},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:07.535Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":346}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.83,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.06,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":346,"forecast":426},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:13.046Z","v":3,"id":"5823eb88-9073-47aa-bfc9-5f730a7a6565","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.41},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2364274501134005,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.11,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":54,"treasury":51},"blend":0.069,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:13.046Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 41% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.37,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.6,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.7,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":265},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:13.312Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 41% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-4"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":334}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6694b0b2-7209-4c3b-88eb-815be541e670","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.82,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.94,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":334,"forecast":265},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:21.415Z","v":3,"id":"e8401bb1-2f31-4ad7-8401-7c4b1c33572e","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.3527483017292663,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.97,"year":2,"after":{"army":41,"church":53,"people":62,"treasury":65},"blend":0.3382,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:21.415Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.51,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.17,"3":0.74,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.41,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.14,"3":0.75,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":394},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:21.810Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":374}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1.9,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":2.04,"people":2.66,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":374,"forecast":394},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-12,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:25.522Z","v":3,"id":"e98b0f73-5dcb-4a5d-a9da-67b756e03f28","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.01859943663641861,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.02,"year":3,"after":{"army":37,"church":51,"people":58,"treasury":58},"blend":0.0278,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:25.522Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":62,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.38,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:25.746Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":62,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":41,"church":53,"people":62,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.72,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.12,"people":2,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:31.713Z","v":3,"id":"2dcb7e8b-332c-48cf-b9ce-84f0e643d8b9","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.570395922539322,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.98,"year":4,"after":{"army":41,"church":50,"people":58,"treasury":54},"blend":0.23899999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:31.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":58,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.29,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.45,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.65,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.51,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":297},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:32.010Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:41.571Z","v":3,"id":"bbf30185-220d-4ac5-ace2-2b7dc764eea4","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2923633885211645,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":52},"blend":0.24119999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:41.571Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":58,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.17,"3":0.69,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.5,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.29,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":322},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:41.893Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":319}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":41,"church":50,"people":58,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.79,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":2.6,"church":1.82,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":319,"forecast":322},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":7,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:31:48.556Z","v":3,"id":"c34fa280-1100-4a0f-9cb8-539924224f3b","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.5619175839321779,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.09,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":61,"treasury":45},"blend":0.09,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:48.556Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.37,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.54,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.05,"3":0.72,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":303},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:31:48.859Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-4","church":"-14","people":"-10","treasury":"+9"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":310}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":0.83,"people":1.19,"treasury":2.77},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.6,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2577,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":310,"forecast":303},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-14,"people":-10,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:45:16.759Z","v":3,"id":"a5b03d13-11a1-4fa2-9ece-bb51626bdfc4","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Casimir I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.30489345083245833,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":45,"church":40,"people":38,"treasury":40},"blend":0.6766,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:16.759Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Casimir I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Casimir I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.55,"2":0.13,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.43,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.35,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.76,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":434},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:17.194Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Casimir I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-6","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"},"Send grain":{"army":"-2","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":269}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dd0f218b-5860-4bfd-a51a-71f9feb84bcc","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.12,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.65,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.24}},"tokens":2568,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":269,"forecast":434},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:45:17.783Z","v":3,"id":"56cfbeda-2e20-4e11-865f-9e4fb58488a7","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.7514396669571806,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.05,"year":1,"after":{"army":55,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":45},"blend":0.10400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:17.783Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.43,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.58,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:17.929Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ad89224-201b-4e83-a8ba-9238200dcf77","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.95,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.35,"church":1.84,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T01:45:22.310Z","v":3,"id":"19064569-9282-49fc-949c-d1d89794cc26","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.28142069517187496,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.96,"year":2,"after":{"army":55,"church":45,"people":44,"treasury":46},"blend":0.8214,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:22.310Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":49,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.63,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":346},{"at":"2026-09-20T01:45:22.657Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":49,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":281}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ad89224-201b-4e83-a8ba-9238200dcf77","before":{"army":55,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.56,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.07,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":281,"forecast":346},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.61}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:17:07.576Z","v":3,"id":"80a419e5-4849-4ee0-b99f-aec899b4fb24","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.6552015681017915,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.07,"year":7,"after":{"army":51,"church":63,"people":74,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6862,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:17:07.576Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.32,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":432},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:17:08.009Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Osric IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":349}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"5c765f54-a132-482e-b807-5c8edaf28dd6","before":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":61,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":2.44,"people":3,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.52,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":349,"forecast":432},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:49.654Z","v":3,"id":"e3a519fe-65cd-4a52-ab38-625d6f0339d4","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.04815464471976605,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.96,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":42},"blend":0.485,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:49.654Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.27,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.62,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.26,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.58,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.68,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":339},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:49.994Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":328}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":1.68,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.04,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":328,"forecast":339},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:51.661Z","v":3,"id":"4fa487ae-e9ae-4b65-9945-f3c7752689f3","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.6033930674041932,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.23,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":43},"blend":0.15000000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:51.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":45,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.33,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:51.855Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":45,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":51,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.31,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.51,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:53.673Z","v":3,"id":"5eb01e43-6b1b-4782-b7ce-c8dda9ab4324","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2346202927664316,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.85,"year":3,"after":{"army":48,"church":51,"people":36,"treasury":39},"blend":0.43,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:53.673Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.31,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:53.861Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":51,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.63,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.1,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:55.661Z","v":3,"id":"b22d310e-42bc-4b07-ad7c-38d877d8f2a0","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.1876642212400026,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.67,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":37,"treasury":40},"blend":0.825,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:55.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":36,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:55.834Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":36,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":232}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":48,"church":51,"people":36,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.92,"people":1.97,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.77,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":232,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:57.659Z","v":3,"id":"93061e7c-4240-444b-8bbf-bf1fc814c8f5","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8555121231329523,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":53,"people":40,"treasury":44},"blend":0.505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:57.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.12,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.39,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.63,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.5,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":268},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:57.927Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":37,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.91,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.05,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":268},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:45:59.666Z","v":3,"id":"a63a3602-1fe2-4ad8-b23a-3f0d1771f333","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6676751682037128,"step":12,"trap":0.89,"want":0.96,"year":6,"after":{"army":43,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":45},"blend":0.485,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:59.666Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":40,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.89,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.57,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.46,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.53,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:45:59.851Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":40,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":45,"church":53,"people":40,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.65,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":2.03,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:01.683Z","v":3,"id":"c2a2097a-e769-429b-af98-c3e7defcbb6d","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.599447954728519,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.31,"year":7,"after":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":58,"treasury":43},"blend":0.635,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:01.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.45,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.36,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.91,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.36,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":230},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:01.913Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"0"},"Hang him":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":43,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":2.35,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":1.61,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":230},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:03.679Z","v":3,"id":"e6b95984-630f-4d60-9b79-a5d89302ad35","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.08091487325037106,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.89,"year":8,"after":{"army":43,"church":58,"people":50,"treasury":36},"blend":0.545,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:03.679Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":58,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.49,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.23,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:03.875Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":58,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-8"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":58,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.82,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":1.03,"church":2.08,"people":2.73,"treasury":2.76}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-12,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:05.683Z","v":3,"id":"753e67bc-a66f-473f-9df7-640c0d1793b9","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.282472583268635,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.98,"year":9,"after":{"army":41,"church":65,"people":39,"treasury":31},"blend":0.535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:05.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":50,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.07,"3":0.66,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.47,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.26,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:05.875Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":50,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":43,"church":58,"people":50,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.46,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.3,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:07.684Z","v":3,"id":"f5120407-5be0-4962-b86d-6124d5ee1ccc","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9642953473283522,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.3,"year":10,"after":{"army":42,"church":66,"people":43,"treasury":36},"blend":0.16,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:07.684Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":39,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.66,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.52,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:07.878Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":39,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":41,"church":65,"people":39,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.78,"people":1.06,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.99,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:09.683Z","v":3,"id":"06a3e98a-7778-4870-b710-a67cdc25af4c","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.005999296447760427,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.32,"year":11,"after":{"army":43,"church":69,"people":52,"treasury":32},"blend":0.615,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:09.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":43,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.31,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:09.886Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":43,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":42,"church":66,"people":43,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.16,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.71,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:11.723Z","v":3,"id":"cbe4880d-5313-413d-bddf-24dc39b816f6","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5153707809404964,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.75,"year":12,"after":{"army":45,"church":72,"people":58,"treasury":33},"blend":0.385,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:11.723Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":52,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.89,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.83,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.62,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:11.866Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":52,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":43,"church":69,"people":52,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.65,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.15,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:13.669Z","v":3,"id":"9f63fa28-382d-4f05-a81d-46d1e97c360d","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8918778180161999,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":41,"church":73,"people":61,"treasury":34},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:13.669Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":58,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.63,"2":0.15,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:13.872Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":58,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":45,"church":72,"people":58,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.7,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":2.02,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:15.689Z","v":3,"id":"a117f0df-5a75-4aea-bf1b-8386008642f4","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.9233037884712076,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":42,"church":73,"people":60,"treasury":43},"blend":0.57,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:15.689Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":61,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.34,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.08,"3":0.51,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.22,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.89,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.33,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:15.862Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":61,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":41,"church":73,"people":61,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":2.09,"people":2.11,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.92,"people":1.8,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:17.686Z","v":3,"id":"806094ab-6615-4fad-9472-f752da993323","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.40644137561906124,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.99,"year":15,"after":{"army":38,"church":73,"people":54,"treasury":34},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:17.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.58,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.74,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:17.848Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":42,"church":73,"people":60,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.9,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.98,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:19.686Z","v":3,"id":"d92ba882-dc1d-481e-bc4e-ee9c739199b1","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5537285849282223,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.36,"year":16,"after":{"army":40,"church":78,"people":55,"treasury":35},"blend":0.19,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:19.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":54,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:19.855Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":54,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":38,"church":73,"people":54,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.54,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.34,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:21.691Z","v":3,"id":"fdea7923-3296-4a8f-b2a5-70ea34535281","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.8161356696574875,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":34,"church":76,"people":54,"treasury":31},"blend":0.545,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:21.691Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":55,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.22,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.46,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.37,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:21.873Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":55,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":40,"church":78,"people":55,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.99,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":1.74,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:23.677Z","v":3,"id":"0cfe0f81-976f-401f-a109-aecef087bf38","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9220568766553023,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":18,"after":{"army":36,"church":78,"people":59,"treasury":38},"blend":0.505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:23.677Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":54,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.57,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:23.821Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":54,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":34,"church":76,"people":54,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.75,"people":1.22,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.07,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:25.697Z","v":3,"id":"46c7a2af-3bca-40f8-99ca-32ceaee1f0ae","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9474164016652427,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.98,"year":19,"after":{"army":37,"church":78,"people":63,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:25.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":59,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.63,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.51,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.46,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:25.906Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":59,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":36,"church":78,"people":59,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.85,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.94,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:27.696Z","v":3,"id":"aee20403-6d72-4209-b9df-287001d7fe1a","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.07083321205599868,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":37,"church":75,"people":58,"treasury":34},"blend":0.535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:27.696Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.28,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.26,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.3,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.57,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.52,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:27.837Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":37,"church":78,"people":63,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.69,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:29.678Z","v":3,"id":"e2f78825-1f6e-45db-81a9-e59257e72795","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.19513259146973239,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":27,"church":72,"people":48,"treasury":17},"blend":0.505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:29.678Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":58,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.35,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:29.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":58,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-18"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":37,"church":75,"people":58,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.64,"people":1.07,"treasury":0.5},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.99,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:31.684Z","v":3,"id":"bfe3c75f-4127-44bd-bbcc-158bf661ee48","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.19413305185424057,"step":12,"trap":0.84,"want":0.73,"year":22,"after":{"army":18,"church":67,"people":40,"treasury":9},"blend":0.365,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:31.684Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.84,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.54,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.61,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.58,"2":0.27,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:31.857Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":27,"church":72,"people":48,"treasury":17},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.51,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.27,"people":2.43,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:33.682Z","v":3,"id":"f4194691-f0f5-4630-bcf4-b6528a91aab8","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7303815757564454,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.5,"year":23,"after":{"army":18,"church":68,"people":41,"treasury":9},"blend":0.25,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:33.682Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.56,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.6,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:33.854Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":18,"church":67,"people":40,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.87,"people":1.7,"treasury":0.99},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.01,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:35.683Z","v":3,"id":"591bcb14-c504-447c-b005-adf9d5826139","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2881278705499948,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":24,"after":{"army":7,"church":58,"people":27,"treasury":0},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:35.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Leopold IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1969,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.67,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.59,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.52,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.65,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.62,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.39,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.72,"1":0.28,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.26,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:35.904Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Leopold IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-21"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":795,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4e219983-7eec-4f2c-aa75-4fc787d1fba5","before":{"army":18,"church":68,"people":41,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.11,"people":0.74,"treasury":0.29},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.18,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.68}},"tokens":2764,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:37.698Z","v":3,"id":"87a89137-1564-46a4-8807-0c526a3ca9de","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.5538082857223621,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"blend":0.976,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:37.698Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:37.887Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":2.08,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.78,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:39.682Z","v":3,"id":"52866d4c-c62b-4e19-84b7-2bf3d52d6f4b","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.03237797323429925,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":46,"people":49,"treasury":50},"blend":0.442,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:39.682Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.42,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:39.860Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.42,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.39,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:41.682Z","v":3,"id":"d4a9f6c4-61e3-4a47-bb35-6b216704ada2","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.43633829533804946,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":47,"people":53,"treasury":52},"blend":0.41200000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:41.682Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":49,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.8,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:41.876Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":49,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-11","church":"-12","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":54,"church":46,"people":49,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.04,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.03,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-12,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:43.697Z","v":3,"id":"842c2265-12ac-46a4-9fc9-37c1c8c131b3","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2843017797895453,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.09,"year":4,"after":{"army":55,"church":50,"people":60,"treasury":60},"blend":0.05399999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:43.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":53,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.82,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.48,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.62,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:43.902Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":53,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":53,"church":47,"people":53,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.62,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.17,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:45.686Z","v":3,"id":"61aa05ff-748a-43e4-b784-cd6a9fe6c840","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6653799476000104,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.94,"year":5,"after":{"army":54,"church":54,"people":67,"treasury":65},"blend":0.382,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:45.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":60,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.29,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.76,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.76,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.47,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.82,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":309},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:45.995Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":60,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-15","treasury":"-12"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":55,"church":50,"people":60,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.03,"people":0.77,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.23,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":309},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:47.683Z","v":3,"id":"c398e3f1-e2bb-46fb-bb3d-a9bfdada4f3e","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.24004743989935373,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.01,"year":6,"after":{"army":51,"church":54,"people":68,"treasury":67},"blend":0.562,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:47.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":67,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.59,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:47.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:49.688Z","v":3,"id":"739d944d-3867-458e-8f45-ae18da4602f2","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6309906498885973,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":57,"church":53,"people":68,"treasury":67},"blend":0.402,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:49.688Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":68,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.83,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.21,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.51,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.27,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.51,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:49.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":51,"church":54,"people":68,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.81,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":2.41,"church":1.85,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:51.685Z","v":3,"id":"6d56efc7-0c6a-4aae-9a91-7e6f34bfa804","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.46404992518468413,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.97,"year":8,"after":{"army":59,"church":58,"people":77,"treasury":70},"blend":0.41200000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:51.685Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":68,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.66,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.6,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.48,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.32,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.82,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.71,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":261},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:51.946Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":68,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+8","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-15","people":"-18","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":272}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":57,"church":53,"people":68,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.83,"church":0.74,"people":0.48,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.31,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":9,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":272,"forecast":261},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-15,"people":-18,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:53.699Z","v":3,"id":"6f10eecd-2120-4bd7-8617-f32c0961ac9b","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.41416725389323594,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":59,"church":59,"people":78,"treasury":71},"blend":0.40800000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:53.699Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":77,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.89,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:53.897Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":77,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":274}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":59,"church":58,"people":77,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.95,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.97,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":274,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:55.692Z","v":3,"id":"80b347d5-72cd-4a40-ad2d-b7947d651ce3","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.42004793475899915,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.03,"year":10,"after":{"army":61,"church":60,"people":77,"treasury":76},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:55.692Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":78,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.3,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.61,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":265},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:55.957Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":78,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":59,"church":59,"people":78,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.88,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.99,"people":1.85,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":265},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:57.701Z","v":3,"id":"f7a67f56-8db3-4774-b5e1-b02f8cad8b81","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.12428237421846289,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.09,"year":11,"after":{"army":62,"church":54,"people":84,"treasury":84},"blend":0.066,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:57.701Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":77,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.08,"3":0.57,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.27,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.45,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.47,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.39,"3":0.6,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:57.840Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":77,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-13","church":"+5","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":61,"church":60,"people":77,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.92,"church":2.43,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.48},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.39,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":5,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:46:59.703Z","v":3,"id":"9bc1af05-e0b7-4e09-a4d1-3480c114563d","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.12371342440597854,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.98,"year":12,"after":{"army":61,"church":52,"people":76,"treasury":75},"blend":0.986,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:59.703Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.3,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.28,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.64,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.52,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:46:59.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":62,"church":54,"people":84,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.75,"people":1.29,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.89,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.16}},"tokens":2728,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:01.705Z","v":3,"id":"e24252f1-bd55-4d8d-b9c9-5f7d8ee6e5fb","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.04419887586079163,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":61,"church":53,"people":75,"treasury":75},"blend":0.988,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:01.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":76,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.57,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.6,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:01.918Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":76,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":243}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":61,"church":52,"people":76,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.83,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":243,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:03.705Z","v":3,"id":"129ec9e7-29fa-42b9-975c-656c63d9448e","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.0053844552528130585,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.11,"year":14,"after":{"army":52,"church":47,"people":66,"treasury":70},"blend":0.07400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:03.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":75,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.5,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.68,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.28,"3":0.71,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:03.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":75,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+4","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":277}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":61,"church":53,"people":75,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.43,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.48,"church":2.3,"people":2.7,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":277,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":6,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:05.834Z","v":3,"id":"e75b3d1f-0396-44fb-8c30-916f1d99045a","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.07791115052810271,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.21,"year":15,"after":{"army":48,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":65},"blend":0.096,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:05.834Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":66,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.19,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.27,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.56,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.96,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.63,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":344},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:06.179Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":66,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+5","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":52,"church":47,"people":66,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.51,"people":1,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.43,"church":2.43,"people":2.97,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":344},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":5,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:07.689Z","v":3,"id":"c32862f8-f599-4e51-bb1e-4accbe0e67b9","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.383460308260998,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.64,"year":16,"after":{"army":47,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":66},"blend":0.844,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:07.689Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.5,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.59,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.96,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.35,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.34,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":251},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:07.940Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"0"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":48,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":2.17,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.45,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":251},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:09.695Z","v":3,"id":"19c5b2c0-5640-4ea3-871f-78d923b9f90f","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.3205927654474068,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.75,"year":17,"after":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":61},"blend":0.342,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:09.695Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":68,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.57,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.07,"3":0.49,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.2,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.41,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.26,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:09.833Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":68,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":47,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.07,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.49,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:11.784Z","v":3,"id":"f1387168-6f6c-4c8f-9d28-512dc4397a06","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9956668386516292,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.98,"year":18,"after":{"army":45,"church":53,"people":66,"treasury":62},"blend":0.404,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:11.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.35,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.56,"2":0.17,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.68,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.32,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:11.976Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-16","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":296}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.56,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.44,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":296,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-16,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:13.695Z","v":3,"id":"bc1a66bd-831b-400d-8f58-6ec6f39dd919","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9520900693207852,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.97,"year":19,"after":{"army":44,"church":54,"people":67,"treasury":61},"blend":0.394,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:13.695Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":66,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.73,"2":0.2,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.71,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:13.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":66,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":270}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":45,"church":53,"people":66,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.51,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.99,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":270,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:15.697Z","v":3,"id":"30db8d94-3dcd-4e2d-a216-250e3b46839e","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.16104223038246324,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.8,"year":20,"after":{"army":43,"church":55,"people":68,"treasury":65},"blend":0.8600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:15.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":67,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1873,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:15.850Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":67,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":677,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":44,"church":54,"people":67,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.99,"people":2,"treasury":2.27},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.98,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2550,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:17.688Z","v":3,"id":"55916680-d467-45ff-8421-279e4a4f9b52","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6266385889270174,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.17,"year":21,"after":{"army":45,"church":47,"people":80,"treasury":65},"blend":0.098,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:17.688Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":68,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.62,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.81,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.09,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.63,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:17.938Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":68,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-14","treasury":"-8"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+11","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":252}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":43,"church":55,"people":68,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":2.43,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.24,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":252,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:19.715Z","v":3,"id":"f9977b16-2f61-41b3-ad67-3feba250d794","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.3272529666281765,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.03,"year":22,"after":{"army":37,"church":52,"people":71,"treasury":63},"blend":0.612,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:19.715Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.56,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.23,"2":0.04,"3":0.61,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.07,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.28,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:19.903Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-10","treasury":"-3"},"Stand":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":45,"church":47,"people":80,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":2.37,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.33,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:21.711Z","v":3,"id":"7660a1ae-61a0-4968-ad10-3c48629db5e6","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.07828365622781974,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":33,"church":50,"people":60,"treasury":62},"blend":0.41600000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:21.711Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":71,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.11,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:21.918Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":71,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":37,"church":52,"people":71,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.71,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.95,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2581,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:23.696Z","v":3,"id":"30ff84ff-d403-4609-a30b-e2e158f728de","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5648687888599553,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.6,"year":24,"after":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":70,"treasury":62},"blend":0.246,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:23.696Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.53,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.27,"2":0.03,"3":0.52,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.05,"3":0.8,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.35,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:23.864Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"+1","people":"-16","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+9","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":33,"church":50,"people":60,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":2.1,"people":0.65,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.19,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":1,"people":-16,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:25.700Z","v":3,"id":"ec97d070-1700-4d98-8da4-9586b20e4823","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.29959461471868276,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.5,"year":25,"after":{"army":34,"church":39,"people":59,"treasury":75},"blend":0.30200000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:25.700Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":70,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.55,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.97,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.17,"3":0.8,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":271},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:25.970Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":70,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":70,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.77,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.96},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.05,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":271},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.65}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:27.713Z","v":3,"id":"8963f5c2-6524-43eb-80b6-cc92e56aa073","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5112439835384812,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.98,"year":26,"after":{"army":36,"church":38,"people":59,"treasury":72},"blend":0.41000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:27.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":59,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.32,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:27.882Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":59,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":34,"church":39,"people":59,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.99,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.84,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:29.716Z","v":3,"id":"836202db-0744-4510-8e94-aacd6391e5c8","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9889297725026029,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.22,"year":27,"after":{"army":38,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":78},"blend":0.10600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:29.716Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":59,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.69,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.53,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:29.901Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":59,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":36,"church":38,"people":59,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.96,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.01,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:31.698Z","v":3,"id":"261e1707-de32-4756-9211-c593c0eb7d49","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.7299762689906724,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.97,"year":28,"after":{"army":39,"church":40,"people":63,"treasury":79},"blend":0.964,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:31.698Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":63,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:31.855Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":63,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":38,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":78},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.99,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.91,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:33.719Z","v":3,"id":"4d7d89de-0fe8-4495-95c7-8d9e43e33980","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.7342640143135934,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.33,"year":29,"after":{"army":40,"church":42,"people":75,"treasury":69},"blend":0.198,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:33.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":63,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.31,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:33.896Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":63,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":227}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":39,"church":40,"people":63,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.85,"people":1.28,"treasury":2.47},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.07,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":227,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:35.712Z","v":3,"id":"73603c72-fbef-494f-8a12-60d4ee1fba63","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.5,"mock":false,"roll":0.7078001145662514,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.04,"year":30,"after":{"army":41,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":75},"blend":0.316,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:35.712Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":75,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.44,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.05,"3":0.7,"4":0.05}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.25,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.53,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:35.946Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":75,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-7","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":40,"church":42,"people":75,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":2.15,"people":2.6,"treasury":0.99},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.76,"people":1.51,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:37.713Z","v":3,"id":"428b269f-d4be-42d2-a479-9c5af9509a47","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.898195733889182,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.9,"year":31,"after":{"army":30,"church":51,"people":70,"treasury":72},"blend":0.672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:37.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.49,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.06,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.29,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:37.970Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-12","church":"+10","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-10","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":41,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.34,"church":1.19,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":2.8,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":11,"people":0,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-10,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-12,"church":10,"people":-1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:39.717Z","v":3,"id":"1d85507d-e5e2-456d-a2a5-a77e71c14d01","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.28331805405813393,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.91,"year":32,"after":{"army":24,"church":43,"people":58,"treasury":61},"blend":0.37600000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:39.717Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":70,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1879,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.64,"2":0.11,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.66,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.81,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.3,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.34,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.8,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:39.953Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":70,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-7","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"},"Send grain":{"army":"+2","church":"+8","people":"+7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":30,"church":51,"people":70,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.25,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":2.69,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2565,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:41.718Z","v":3,"id":"0153298a-ef01-46eb-a718-da37072ef58e","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.007774671791566323,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.25,"year":33,"after":{"army":23,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":56},"blend":0.604,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:41.718Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":58,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.87,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.15,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.3,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.16,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.42,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:41.904Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":58,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-2","church":"+11","people":"+7","treasury":"-6"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":24,"church":43,"people":58,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":2.91,"people":2.62,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.72,"people":1.42,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":12,"people":8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:43.704Z","v":3,"id":"b517a3bf-9896-4388-a0d6-15e3a3eccb25","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.032515794578765966,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.13,"year":34,"after":{"army":19,"church":56,"people":53,"treasury":47},"blend":0.058,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:43.704Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":66,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.06,"3":0.48,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.7,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:43.883Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":66,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+11","treasury":"-1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-14","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":23,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.98,"people":0.85,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.29,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-13,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-14,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:45.716Z","v":3,"id":"fc6e8195-c5c5-4e43-9dba-7a7696aeb007","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.27,"mock":false,"roll":0.7337880965623953,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.9,"year":35,"after":{"army":13,"church":54,"people":51,"treasury":44},"blend":0.522,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:45.716Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.53,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.45,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.45,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:45.959Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-4"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":19,"church":56,"people":53,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.81,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.39,"church":1.73,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2712,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:47.701Z","v":3,"id":"92a6b789-d9ca-45a9-9c94-ea1e976af6d2","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.02534433732185004,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.98,"year":36,"after":{"army":12,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":46},"blend":0.974,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:47.701Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:47.896Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":13,"church":54,"people":51,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":2.01,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.18,"church":1.67,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:49.719Z","v":3,"id":"0961e587-0861-4495-8617-64059c003754","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6353210355178396,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.08,"year":37,"after":{"army":14,"church":45,"people":57,"treasury":54},"blend":0.032,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:49.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.64,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.6,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.34,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.5,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.26,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:49.897Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-15","church":"+4","people":"-11","treasury":"-18"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":12,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.78,"church":2.37,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.51},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.12,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":4,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:51.719Z","v":3,"id":"d26533b2-590b-4bff-900e-ae7aa26e6878","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6601771180751046,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.01,"year":38,"after":{"army":15,"church":47,"people":60,"treasury":59},"blend":0.004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:51.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.65,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.14,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:51.952Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":312}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":14,"church":45,"people":57,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.54,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.07,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":312,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:53.712Z","v":3,"id":"590ab9b7-2ce0-4466-b3ba-d93bf9a499cd","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.36335722665858894,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.19,"year":39,"after":{"army":16,"church":48,"people":66,"treasury":56},"blend":0.6759999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:53.712Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.46,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.42,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.1,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.14,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:53.871Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-11","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":15,"church":47,"people":60,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.99,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.09,"church":1.37,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-11,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:55.713Z","v":3,"id":"2c2da8dc-0a2d-4ec7-9984-f1da4a0c17da","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3514549350314693,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.03,"year":40,"after":{"army":15,"church":49,"people":74,"treasury":56},"blend":0.012,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:55.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.71,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.29,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:55.916Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-13","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":16,"church":48,"people":66,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.95,"church":1.57,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.04,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:57.698Z","v":3,"id":"11845165-77e8-42e0-89b7-33fcef66c7f8","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.38333659193872416,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.51,"year":41,"after":{"army":12,"church":52,"people":75,"treasury":49},"blend":0.20400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:57.698Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.48,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:57.847Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-4","church":"+2","people":"0","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":15,"church":49,"people":74,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.62,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":2.13,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:47:59.704Z","v":3,"id":"0eb3bd08-8f13-4a10-9393-39c1e691a6ed","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6310669902435202,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.85,"year":42,"after":{"army":11,"church":53,"people":77,"treasury":47},"blend":0.34600000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:59.704Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.41,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.35,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.58,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.6,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.48,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":247},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:47:59.951Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-18","church":"-8","people":"-16","treasury":"-17"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":12,"church":52,"people":75,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.5,"church":1.32,"people":0.64,"treasury":0.56},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.97,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":247},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:01.705Z","v":3,"id":"8fc166e4-39c4-4528-a06c-ece84021befa","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.64655964363792,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.96,"year":43,"after":{"army":4,"church":51,"people":76,"treasury":41},"blend":0.972,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:01.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.62,"2":0.19,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.62,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.4,"2":0.1,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.72,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.61,"2":0.13,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:01.914Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-7"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":11,"church":53,"people":77,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.77,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":1.55,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.96}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:03.726Z","v":3,"id":"e8535144-81d8-4cd1-b1b2-d5dffd113015","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4100646287852856,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.22,"year":44,"after":{"army":4,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":46},"blend":0.09400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:03.726Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.18,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.51,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:03.869Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":4,"church":51,"people":76,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.87,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.98,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:05.724Z","v":3,"id":"7ece0a6e-1aee-41e8-b912-7af086e4b654","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.73909192545459,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.03,"year":45,"after":{"army":1,"church":52,"people":83,"treasury":42},"blend":0.024,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:05.724Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.6,"1":0.25,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.4,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.49,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.1,"2":0.3,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.9299999999999999}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.25,"2":0.49,"3":0.1,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:05.958Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+4","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-17","church":"-2","people":"-17","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":4,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.61,"church":1.87,"people":0.57,"treasury":3.88},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.92,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2697,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-17,"church":-2,"people":-17,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:07.726Z","v":3,"id":"e9b249f9-d84b-4e42-989c-1e0dcf61db7a","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.006221035660980645,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.76,"year":46,"after":{"army":0,"church":56,"people":93,"treasury":40},"blend":0.44200000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:07.726Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.49,"2":0.32,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.48,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.78,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.42,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.09,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.55,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:07.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Philippa I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+3"},"Hang him":{"army":"-6","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6797fc3a-1eac-4eb3-bab9-07cdefea4b93","before":{"army":1,"church":52,"people":83,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":2.22,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":1.81,"people":1.26,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:09.720Z","v":3,"id":"2be0569f-7037-4f33-a532-5672cf70c62c","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.22687670507343016,"step":12,"trap":0.88,"want":0.97,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":43,"treasury":46},"blend":0.4228,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:09.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.88,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.51,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:09.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.72,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":2,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:11.720Z","v":3,"id":"bc3e164d-8f81-4e17-9d7a-6d7a4ca9832b","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.45590744371818204,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.84,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":47},"blend":0.3669,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:11.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":43,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.28,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":259},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:11.980Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":43,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":43,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.5,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.16,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":259},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:13.716Z","v":3,"id":"9d9c58c2-743a-4212-bb97-cb2eb539d73a","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.06661181137236216,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.45,"year":3,"after":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":49,"treasury":40},"blend":0.21060000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:13.716Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.74,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.32,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:13.852Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+3","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.65,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.32},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.29,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2645,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.11,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:15.714Z","v":3,"id":"dc9f58ef-a12e-4751-887a-891333a2b6b2","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.82112106287956,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.34,"year":4,"after":{"army":50,"church":49,"people":53,"treasury":44},"blend":0.15190000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:15.714Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":49,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.6,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.56,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.75,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:15.893Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":49,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:17.711Z","v":3,"id":"1a478f87-b904-4c29-a622-dc99dd7b93eb","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.9265076136625661,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.02,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":37},"blend":0.533,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:17.711Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1876,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.5,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:17.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:19.728Z","v":3,"id":"1c780dc9-fbdc-4564-bc3f-12d711d4db0f","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.13289226457393055,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.75,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":54,"people":43,"treasury":40},"blend":0.4878,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:19.728Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.3,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.15},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.58,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":-7,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.42}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:21.729Z","v":3,"id":"d4a439e8-ce38-400b-b5ab-435161b41fa9","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6361791407514739,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.36,"year":7,"after":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":54,"treasury":41},"blend":0.16050000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:21.729Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":43,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.72,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.42,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.71,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.72,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.61,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.35000000000000003,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:21.927Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":43,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":49,"church":54,"people":43,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.45,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.78},"right":{"army":2.18,"church":2.21,"people":2.87,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:23.728Z","v":3,"id":"1b997d18-9456-46da-8e09-de3d9c93ab4d","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.5047456035078612,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.27,"year":8,"after":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":63,"treasury":37},"blend":0.6462,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:23.728Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":54,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.33,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:23.931Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":54,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":283}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":54,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":2.17,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.66,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":283,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:25.720Z","v":3,"id":"565d0ee2-fb09-47d8-b190-f90b72ac575b","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.947863437840373,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.03,"year":9,"after":{"army":55,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":38},"blend":0.09839999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:25.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":63,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":1067},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:26.787Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":63,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"+1","church":"+9","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":63,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.25,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.78,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":2,"church":10,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":1067},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:27.729Z","v":3,"id":"59c4d950-be5a-4c1a-84ba-4379c1f0d3d0","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.23124507471759692,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.74,"year":10,"after":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":41},"blend":0.8711,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:27.729Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:27.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":55,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":2.01,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.13},"right":{"army":1.27,"church":1.61,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:29.714Z","v":3,"id":"f0dc1646-c9f0-4d83-91fb-59bf2b2ff6b0","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9618856011284971,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":77,"treasury":48},"blend":0.4314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:29.714Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.53,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:29.934Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.95,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.95,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:31.735Z","v":3,"id":"776d0f27-52c2-40cd-b7f7-5fcbc6019f09","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.8747143833350921,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.02,"year":12,"after":{"army":55,"church":70,"people":74,"treasury":46},"blend":0.4816999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:31.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":77,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:31.902Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":77,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}}}},"latencyMs":254}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":77,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.03,"church":2.06,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.73,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":254,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:33.720Z","v":3,"id":"bfac02b4-ebcf-452a-99bf-8888e53c4ce6","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.5613299190885057,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.52,"year":13,"after":{"army":57,"church":71,"people":78,"treasury":44},"blend":0.7423,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:33.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":74,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.66,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.45,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.09,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.12,"3":0.58,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:33.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":74,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":55,"church":70,"people":74,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":2.02,"people":2.27,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.36,"church":1.43,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":219},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:35.713Z","v":3,"id":"f05263fd-c37f-411b-9d8f-ffcc74f125d5","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5805016480261493,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.75,"year":14,"after":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":86,"treasury":46},"blend":0.3567,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:35.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":78,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.44,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.56,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:35.877Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":57,"church":71,"people":78,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.4,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.46,"church":2.37,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":7,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":6,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:37.719Z","v":3,"id":"203623b6-6137-4189-9cec-86e91498c4ac","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.6871513969994829,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.96,"year":15,"after":{"army":56,"church":73,"people":75,"treasury":34},"blend":0.9771,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:37.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.38,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.86,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:37.913Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":86,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.68,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:39.721Z","v":3,"id":"7acb4434-5ea8-4925-9282-f8e90352dfae","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8659597518225348,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.9,"year":16,"after":{"army":57,"church":83,"people":81,"treasury":24},"blend":0.4212000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:39.721Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":75,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.21,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.53,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.21,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.25,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:39.942Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":75,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Send grain":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":56,"church":73,"people":75,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.16,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.74,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2572,"applied":{"army":1,"church":10,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:41.718Z","v":3,"id":"6484d8f0-8709-4b80-8c2f-75e32a0dd2f8","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.394256721557366,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":85,"people":73,"treasury":13},"blend":0.46420000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:41.718Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.45,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.26,"2":0.05,"3":0.47,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.71,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.36,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.66,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.52,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:41.928Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":57,"church":83,"people":81,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":2.12,"people":1.22,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.7,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:43.731Z","v":3,"id":"6091bf97-2d62-4148-9fa9-02d5acb93443","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.27,"mock":false,"roll":0.5050643943435571,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.92,"year":18,"after":{"army":45,"church":87,"people":70,"treasury":22},"blend":0.5495000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:43.731Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1967,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.51,"3":0.26,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.48,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.66,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:43.882Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"-4","treasury":"+8"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":51,"church":85,"people":73,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":2.07,"people":1.66,"treasury":2.68},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.93,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2758,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":-3,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:45.735Z","v":3,"id":"96a9a286-f04c-4e30-ade9-ac268e7dbab4","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.45663292019244417,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.16,"year":19,"after":{"army":56,"church":86,"people":76,"treasury":12},"blend":0.3082,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:45.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.89,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.39,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.35,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:45.963Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":45,"church":87,"people":70,"treasury":22},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.94,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.42},"right":{"army":2.85,"church":1.85,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2672,"applied":{"army":11,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":10,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:47.718Z","v":3,"id":"ec4e464a-73e0-407c-8af9-f65783251f9e","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.17115984787113891,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.99,"year":20,"after":{"army":46,"church":82,"people":64,"treasury":0},"blend":0.5682,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:47.718Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Osric II, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.29,"2":0.52,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.41,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:47.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Osric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Osric II cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-11","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-19"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":782,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6c757c67-b103-4ef7-ab13-549757d01ecb","before":{"army":56,"church":86,"people":76,"treasury":12},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.06,"church":1.58,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.4},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.05,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2733,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:49.735Z","v":3,"id":"f52e6efc-53a6-4471-a7e0-a471bfad612a","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3211079750558934,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":44,"church":43,"people":40,"treasury":42},"blend":0.735,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:49.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.56,"2":0.27,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.39,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.62,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":281},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:50.016Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":249}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"adf82131-b5c5-4862-b584-6e6540123956","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.37,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.84,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":249,"forecast":281},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:51.734Z","v":3,"id":"056487b9-bda7-4879-acdd-a9ca02311184","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.7100941846009938,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.21,"year":2,"after":{"army":34,"church":52,"people":35,"treasury":35},"blend":0.3675,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:51.734Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":40,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:51.893Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":40,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+8","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+3","church":"-10","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":263}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"adf82131-b5c5-4862-b584-6e6540123956","before":{"army":44,"church":43,"people":40,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.29,"church":1.2,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.1,"church":2.67,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.33}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":9,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":263,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-10,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-11,"church":8,"people":-6,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:53.732Z","v":3,"id":"b7cf9867-ecd1-4a34-b44e-ff656400e8a6","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3074864937435027,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.9,"year":3,"after":{"army":30,"church":53,"people":28,"treasury":25},"blend":0.6775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:53.732Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":35,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.19,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.46,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9299999999999999,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.61,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:53.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":35,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"adf82131-b5c5-4862-b584-6e6540123956","before":{"army":34,"church":52,"people":35,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":2.03,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.12,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:55.724Z","v":3,"id":"33426298-db09-4e99-b3fc-c54a7859a1cd","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2479272801565524,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":35,"church":43,"people":8,"treasury":15},"blend":0.755,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:55.724Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":28,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.16,"3":0.58,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.41,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.79,"1":0.21,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.86,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:55.917Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":28,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+4","church":"-11","people":"-21","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"adf82131-b5c5-4862-b584-6e6540123956","before":{"army":30,"church":53,"people":28,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.37,"church":1.12,"people":0.22,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":2.37,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-10,"people":-20,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-11,"people":-21,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:57.722Z","v":3,"id":"376201fb-ccaf-4baf-9b0c-b28558848f8f","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7227240543780882,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":32,"church":33,"people":0,"treasury":0},"blend":0.75,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:57.722Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.45,"2":0.15,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.58,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.67,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.46,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.53,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.46,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":279},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:58.001Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-16"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"adf82131-b5c5-4862-b584-6e6540123956","before":{"army":35,"church":43,"people":8,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.06,"people":0.74,"treasury":0.66},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":279},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:48:59.739Z","v":3,"id":"acd54031-497d-4626-9e37-7376bf38aab6","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.9675362777434857,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":50,"people":57,"treasury":43},"blend":0.7976,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:59.739Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.06,"3":0.44,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.94,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.44,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.36,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.83,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:48:59.943Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-13","treasury":"+12"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.98,"people":0.95,"treasury":3.02},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.88,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.35}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-13,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:01.738Z","v":3,"id":"bcfaa7c1-a02c-486e-b551-8e1547c6fde6","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.254795632894641,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":42,"church":43,"people":39,"treasury":59},"blend":0.7866000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:01.738Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":57,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.64,"2":0.25,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.59,"2":0.28,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.58,"1":0.42,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.64,"4":0.32}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:01.899Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":57,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-8","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"+15"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":309}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":49,"church":50,"people":57,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.31,"people":0.43,"treasury":3.24},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.09,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-18,"treasury":16},"latency":{"advisor":309,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:03.741Z","v":3,"id":"e01b7f8a-faa8-4896-8b80-c80087b68070","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.476978039633398,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":33,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":68},"blend":0.791,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:03.741Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":39,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.03,"3":0.69,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":232},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:03.973Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":39,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+8"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":42,"church":43,"people":39,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.74,"people":1.45,"treasury":2.67},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.96,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":232},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:05.739Z","v":3,"id":"daf8a474-e259-4264-a157-7801e8aad40b","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6936282565310445,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.4,"year":4,"after":{"army":34,"church":42,"people":33,"treasury":71},"blend":0.31640000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:05.739Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.64,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":270},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:06.009Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":254}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":33,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.83,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.97,"people":1.89,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":254,"forecast":270},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:07.730Z","v":3,"id":"87bf1c07-77f2-4584-8e88-906e63abcfa9","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2845043555708342,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.72,"year":5,"after":{"army":33,"church":41,"people":31,"treasury":65},"blend":0.5638,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:07.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":33,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.74,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9400000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:07.883Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":34,"church":42,"people":33,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.81,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2580,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:09.725Z","v":3,"id":"2ed8c5a0-9cae-48f6-a5e0-66c59ec17f42","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6882678612436606,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.86,"year":6,"after":{"army":36,"church":48,"people":43,"treasury":64},"blend":0.673,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:09.725Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":31,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.28,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.26,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.41,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:09.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":31,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"+1","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+6","people":"+11","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":33,"church":41,"people":31,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.43,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.47,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":12,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":11,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:11.745Z","v":3,"id":"b0719b33-bfb7-42a5-b804-216d178c5692","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.37586410011824234,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":25,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":70},"blend":0.7788,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:11.745Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":43,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:11.972Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":43,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":36,"church":48,"people":43,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.58,"people":0.92,"treasury":2.45},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.96,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:13.730Z","v":3,"id":"e9036b97-bbef-49ad-9643-e9eebcbb8cd0","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.7330378795209456,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.75,"year":8,"after":{"army":23,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"blend":0.5982,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:13.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.74,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.42,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.32,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:13.974Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":25,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.34,"people":0.85,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.35,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:15.730Z","v":3,"id":"38c00b98-88f9-463a-8aea-5f5f4a74ef3e","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9547322019821418,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.28,"year":9,"after":{"army":25,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":67},"blend":0.22280000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:15.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.1,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:15.877Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":23,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.77,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.03,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:17.725Z","v":3,"id":"0132e9fe-6d1a-4e0b-ba81-75c2ffa4d8e1","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6113749534165218,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":24,"church":42,"people":29,"treasury":81},"blend":0.7888000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:17.725Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.69,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.58,"1":0.42,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.63,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.12,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.01,"3":0.71,"4":0.22}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:17.901Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-9"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-19","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":25,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":67},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.22,"people":0.42,"treasury":3.1},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.25,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-18,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-19,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:19.732Z","v":3,"id":"77397a07-2b7a-457a-a580-c8d7113bec70","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.6123545114700324,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.18,"year":11,"after":{"army":24,"church":39,"people":29,"treasury":85},"blend":0.2064,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:19.732Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.06,"3":0.56,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.36,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.45,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.11,"3":0.48,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.43,"3":0.39,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:19.948Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"-11","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":24,"church":42,"people":29,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":2.21,"people":1.05,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.65,"people":1.94,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:21.735Z","v":3,"id":"4d2223db-0dd3-449f-ba36-a7f4851243cc","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.46,"mock":false,"roll":0.4828819613293598,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.28,"year":12,"after":{"army":29,"church":37,"people":27,"treasury":83},"blend":0.31960000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:21.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.48,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.58,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.29,"2":0.48,"3":0.13,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":127},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:21.862Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":24,"church":39,"people":29,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.95,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":2.32,"church":1.76,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":127},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":4,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.09}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:23.733Z","v":3,"id":"251d7be6-ef53-4671-963c-e0b3b4d32152","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.3165740623806652,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.56,"year":13,"after":{"army":28,"church":34,"people":16,"treasury":83},"blend":0.4940000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:23.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.57,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.29,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:23.940Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"},"Meet them":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":29,"church":37,"people":27,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.69,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.84,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.11,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:25.750Z","v":3,"id":"47905407-8fa7-4f4b-acf2-ea66e068caeb","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.22},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6507338937421128,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.98,"year":14,"after":{"army":21,"church":24,"people":0,"treasury":90},"blend":0.7644,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:25.750Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1959,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.56,"2":0.33,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.64,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.45,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.24,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.18,"2":0.04,"3":0.52,"4":0.16}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.38,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":267},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:26.018Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-8","church":"-11","people":"-18","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8adfca21-245a-4fc6-ae21-2357422cdc11","before":{"army":28,"church":34,"people":16,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.09,"people":0.46,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.89,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2743,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-10,"people":-17,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":267},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-11,"people":-18,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:27.748Z","v":3,"id":"323767ec-b48b-42dc-b9f3-14e5f61acab0","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.35684156257819577,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.87,"year":1,"after":{"army":42,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6243,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:27.748Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.57,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.07,"3":0.62,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.66,"2":0.08,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.51,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:27.935Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-7","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":2.42,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.13,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-7,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.51}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:29.749Z","v":3,"id":"1554678e-b8c2-4c95-976e-38080f3f2c25","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6298766893249195,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.02,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":56},"blend":0.0239,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:29.749Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.53,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.33,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.65,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:29.950Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"+1","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":124}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":42,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.05,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.91,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":124,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:31.735Z","v":3,"id":"8e1f4e36-8996-4c2b-bb74-257c25cc20be","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5662280817382555,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.6,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":52,"people":48,"treasury":57},"blend":0.3816,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:31.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.79,"1":0.19,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.14,"2":0.05,"3":0.64,"4":0.11}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.65,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.37,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.57,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.12,"3":0.72,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:31.920Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+7","people":"-11","treasury":"+8"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+3","church":"-5","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":43,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.24,"church":2.6,"people":1.09,"treasury":2.63},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":1.61,"people":2.29,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-4,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:33.752Z","v":3,"id":"90c7f6d7-bd60-4a11-88e3-3cca8c05ce55","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.45,"mock":false,"roll":0.004175804952816886,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.01,"year":4,"after":{"army":38,"church":52,"people":44,"treasury":55},"blend":0.1816,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:33.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":48,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.22,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.49,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.46,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:33.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":47,"church":52,"people":48,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.91,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":2.52,"church":1.67,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":6,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.11}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:35.749Z","v":3,"id":"52e97627-d7fb-43d4-9182-e60320bc2cd3","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9550312038506699,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":45,"treasury":55},"blend":0.6139,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:35.749Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":289},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:36.039Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":38,"church":52,"people":44,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.95,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.02,"people":2,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":289},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:37.755Z","v":3,"id":"913c8357-9220-4abf-8e38-94d74bbffb9f","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8402145069366069,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.94,"year":6,"after":{"army":40,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":55},"blend":0.5811999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:37.755Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:37.895Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":45,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":45,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.86,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:39.753Z","v":3,"id":"5ba48d71-daa5-48d5-91ca-a2370c40a442","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.12391796562161117,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":36,"church":53,"people":40,"treasury":54},"blend":0.6178,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:39.753Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.43,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.88,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.75,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":299},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:40.051Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":46,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":40,"church":54,"people":46,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.81,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.1,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":299},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:41.752Z","v":3,"id":"a6fc6343-9f60-4a07-bb72-17e2c2480c8b","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3289957775708623,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.11,"year":8,"after":{"army":35,"church":55,"people":44,"treasury":55},"blend":0.06709999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:41.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":40,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.79,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.69,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.73,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:41.953Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":40,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-12","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":290}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":36,"church":53,"people":40,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.33,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.05,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":290,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:43.781Z","v":3,"id":"2c61bc06-fd92-4096-aadb-366cd1c9cf55","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6920841907491377,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6255999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:43.781Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":44,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.89,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.42,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.36,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:44.023Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":44,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":35,"church":55,"people":44,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.79,"people":1.53,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":2.88,"church":2.01,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:45.744Z","v":3,"id":"572812f5-9dd3-4769-9a96-01f520c3add3","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.43,"mock":false,"roll":0.25929601837599936,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.2,"year":10,"after":{"army":45,"church":61,"people":44,"treasury":52},"blend":0.2897,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:45.744Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.11,"3":0.6,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.3,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.6,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.15,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:45.945Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"-5","treasury":"+5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.35,"people":1.59,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.62,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":-4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.14}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:47.740Z","v":3,"id":"e53b1a3b-1e9b-4660-8dfd-d7a28ddc48a3","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4569655096686063,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":39,"church":55,"people":31,"treasury":39},"blend":0.6078,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:47.740Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":44,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.48,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.41,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.78,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.85,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.7,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.25,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:47.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":45,"church":61,"people":44,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.44,"people":0.87,"treasury":0.84},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.16,"people":2.87,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:49.760Z","v":3,"id":"86f5e067-1287-4663-b395-dd6aace0b5fd","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.014111185923592506,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.99,"year":12,"after":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":19,"treasury":38},"blend":0.6234,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:49.760Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":31,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.57,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.18,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:49.961Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":39,"church":55,"people":31,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.72,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.84,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:51.760Z","v":3,"id":"34e5ddd9-f134-4024-a4a4-340835b6e9bd","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7601381195693884,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.93,"year":13,"after":{"army":37,"church":54,"people":16,"treasury":30},"blend":0.5673,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:51.760Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.67,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":246},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:52.006Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-9","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":19,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.44,"people":1.21,"treasury":2.05},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.03,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":246},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-9,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:53.759Z","v":3,"id":"294cc021-489e-46bd-b5c2-88fd0d4a0e2a","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.39},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.5452701200594072,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.13,"year":14,"after":{"army":36,"church":45,"people":0,"treasury":34},"blend":0.4693,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:53.759Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.36,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.67,"2":0.17,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.46,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.25,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:53.994Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"-18","treasury":"+3"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"07b125d2-8cfb-4c23-a20b-29b274de9b20","before":{"army":37,"church":54,"people":16,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.49,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.14,"people":0.46,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-17,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":-18,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:55.761Z","v":3,"id":"27235a30-823f-4794-b8ca-2548e305fde2","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7970901015931782,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.42,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":55,"treasury":52},"blend":0.147,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:55.761Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.56,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.64,"2":0.11,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.61,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:55.978Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-7"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.72,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.03,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:57.762Z","v":3,"id":"68d404be-9bf3-4a0a-a586-d2987719abaf","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6257794674522816,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":52,"people":65,"treasury":44},"blend":0.339,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:57.762Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":55,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.82,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.62,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.04,"3":0.64,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:57.922Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":55,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":55,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.7,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.48},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.02,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:49:59.762Z","v":3,"id":"738599df-ea1b-49f2-8186-23a120c9e6eb","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.38840056179290383,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.01,"year":3,"after":{"army":55,"church":51,"people":69,"treasury":46},"blend":0.654,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:59.762Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":65,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.65,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.68,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.9,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:49:59.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":65,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+11"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":54,"church":52,"people":65,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.86,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.85,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.93}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:01.752Z","v":3,"id":"4e9b4066-0de4-4601-89fe-e87d08ba3939","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9553346893764891,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.53,"year":4,"after":{"army":56,"church":53,"people":70,"treasury":49},"blend":0.18000000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:01.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":69,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.42,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:01.887Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":69,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":243}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":55,"church":51,"people":69,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.64,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.05,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":243,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.07,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:03.745Z","v":3,"id":"99e07376-4dba-42d9-8f91-dc03cfc34bf2","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.8,"mock":false,"roll":0.6919790687300773,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.23,"year":5,"after":{"army":55,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":54},"blend":0.629,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:03.745Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.41,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:03.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":56,"church":53,"people":70,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.02,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.92,"people":1.85,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:05.749Z","v":3,"id":"1de45c85-6892-4e91-9f5f-a41874b0a0a9","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.6612974316807441,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.25,"year":6,"after":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":67,"treasury":54},"blend":0.649,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:05.749Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":69,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.69,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.5,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.36,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.53,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:05.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":69,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":55,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.33,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.1,"church":2.76,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:07.747Z","v":3,"id":"03a66281-ca3e-4d98-b518-993d6ef0a639","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.059733163168655956,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":35,"church":50,"people":53,"treasury":77},"blend":0.342,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:07.747Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":67,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.43,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.48,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.13,"4":0.86}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:07.992Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":67,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+6","people":"+6","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-14","people":"-15","treasury":"+22"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":67,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":0.82,"people":0.74,"treasury":3.83},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.51,"people":2.48,"treasury":1.51}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-13,"people":-14,"treasury":23},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-14,"people":-15,"treasury":22},"right":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:09.765Z","v":3,"id":"927806e3-a6ab-4438-9f6b-0568ee404d87","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7660644511287997,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.53,"year":8,"after":{"army":36,"church":51,"people":54,"treasury":76},"blend":0.16600000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:09.765Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":53,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.96,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.97,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.97,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":340},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:10.106Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":53,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":35,"church":50,"people":53,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.98,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.98,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":340},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:11.764Z","v":3,"id":"a5731ea0-0b12-40c4-8a7f-a0faf8e653ef","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.47657545718331606,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.03,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":62,"treasury":85},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:11.764Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":54,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.79,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.07,"3":0.44,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.79,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.43,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.37,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.6,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.29,"3":0.68,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:11.904Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":54,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-8","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":36,"church":51,"people":54,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":2.55,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.08,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:13.766Z","v":3,"id":"7a394668-8003-4940-8cd8-71ac2169393d","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.641683233132543,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.01,"year":10,"after":{"army":38,"church":58,"people":74,"treasury":77},"blend":0.703,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:13.766Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.49,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.02,"2":0.18,"3":0.67,"4":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:13.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+7"},"Return it":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":62,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":2.35,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.65,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:15.759Z","v":3,"id":"2c95c906-ff44-4c8f-847e-a38ca926461c","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.6435869310661293,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":37,"church":67,"people":81,"treasury":68},"blend":0.37400000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:15.759Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":74,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.62,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.28,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.37,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.64,"4":0.31}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":287},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:16.046Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":74,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-13","people":"-11","treasury":"+15"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-2","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":38,"church":58,"people":74,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":0.92,"people":1.1,"treasury":3.23},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.68,"people":2.48,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":287},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:17.753Z","v":3,"id":"0e843b6a-ee72-4bb4-a6c2-e01decb330eb","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9168825048246381,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.39,"year":12,"after":{"army":26,"church":70,"people":88,"treasury":73},"blend":0.817,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:17.753Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.58,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.39,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:17.935Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-3"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":37,"church":67,"people":81,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1.83,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":2.13,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:19.784Z","v":3,"id":"6b11556a-54fe-4333-b7af-e38d3a5c1853","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.7,"mock":false,"roll":0.6216753504066439,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.48,"year":13,"after":{"army":26,"church":67,"people":84,"treasury":74},"blend":0.6339999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:19.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":291},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:20.075Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":26,"church":70,"people":88,"treasury":73},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.7,"people":1.6,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.1,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":291},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:21.766Z","v":3,"id":"b9a3de33-5753-4d06-81fa-13c6521e4130","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.3215320295730977,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":16,"church":64,"people":66,"treasury":98},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:21.766Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.71,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.62,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.33,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.28,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:21.911Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-19","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":272}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":26,"church":67,"people":84,"treasury":74},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.7,"people":0.41,"treasury":3.92},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.97,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-18,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":272,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-19,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:23.770Z","v":3,"id":"0720b25d-83c3-41f8-b8cb-6f1f24a7cc69","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6782315228065523,"step":12,"trap":0.08,"want":0.79,"year":15,"after":{"army":17,"church":66,"people":69,"treasury":98},"blend":0.23700000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:23.770Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":98},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.08,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.84,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.66,"3":0.2,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:23.938Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":98},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":16,"church":64,"people":66,"treasury":98},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.8,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.09,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2732,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:25.767Z","v":3,"id":"b78124ef-95e7-4463-9dcc-ffe3f8b77a87","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.9352992849903887,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.96,"year":16,"after":{"army":17,"church":67,"people":72,"treasury":100},"blend":0.5680000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:25.767Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":98},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1961,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.73,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.17,"4":0.26}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.65,"3":0.28,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:25.919Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":98},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 98: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"696df837-c6c1-4f6b-aa98-7f90932bfcbd","before":{"army":17,"church":66,"people":69,"treasury":98},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.76,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.04,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2744,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.21}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:27.768Z","v":3,"id":"8ce569a9-f53a-478e-9339-4a1cdf502f20","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.6887413468534309,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":51,"people":59,"treasury":40},"blend":0.368,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:27.768Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.59,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.95,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.2,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0,"3":0.71,"4":0.29}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:27.992Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-11"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+15"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":289}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.23,"church":1.72,"people":0.96,"treasury":3.28},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":2.02,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":289,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.61}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:29.769Z","v":3,"id":"ffb07726-6f42-4410-8c3f-6093b10568c5","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8373389906916484,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":65,"treasury":35},"blend":0.25739999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:29.769Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":59,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.51,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.16,"4":0.82}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:29.957Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":59,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":48,"church":51,"people":59,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":0.86,"people":0.8,"treasury":3.78},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.54,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:31.767Z","v":3,"id":"31e62a69-c400-4bdb-948c-def40d591fe9","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.43262815884742434,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.6,"year":3,"after":{"army":55,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":42},"blend":0.13389999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:31.767Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":65,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.75,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.6,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.4,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.4,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:31.919Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":65,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-14"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":65,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.7,"people":1.13,"treasury":0.81},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:33.765Z","v":3,"id":"0f1f47bf-e014-4ce5-acc9-dbd59a582d6c","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.22386378135000728,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.01,"year":4,"after":{"army":54,"church":64,"people":81,"treasury":38},"blend":0.7131000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:33.765Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.51,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.9,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.39,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.23,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:33.925Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"+7"},"Hang him":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":55,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":2.36,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.71,"people":1.08,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:35.757Z","v":3,"id":"04600ca8-c31f-42ab-8dc1-b62833078441","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.23959453356119242,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.47,"year":5,"after":{"army":44,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":23},"blend":0.865,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:35.757Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.35,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.67,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.57,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:35.921Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-11","church":"-10","people":"-19","treasury":"-16"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":54,"church":64,"people":81,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.15,"people":0.38,"treasury":0.65},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.04,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-19,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:37.772Z","v":3,"id":"25497030-2172-40d7-95d1-29a7d5332597","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.8288587946824804,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.01,"year":6,"after":{"army":44,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":32},"blend":0.6499,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:37.772Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.94,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.22,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:37.976Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+8"},"Return it":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":44,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":2.33,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.74,"people":1,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:39.767Z","v":3,"id":"62f174bd-a922-485f-b3e7-d8540bbfb2ef","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.5631478397627223,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.23,"year":7,"after":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":55,"treasury":23},"blend":0.6882,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:39.767Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.53,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.65,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:39.968Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":44,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.97,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:41.758Z","v":3,"id":"6ed7e5f3-34c3-4106-83fe-23043de258b5","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8420081825890473,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.52,"year":8,"after":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":56,"treasury":23},"blend":0.8834,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:41.758Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":55,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:41.957Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":55,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":55,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.89,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:43.756Z","v":3,"id":"7eb808f5-4380-4d01-938a-59ecedf079f3","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.892939047509866,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.79,"year":9,"after":{"army":47,"church":57,"people":63,"treasury":25},"blend":0.17379999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:43.756Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":56,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.37,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.34,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":123},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:43.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":56,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":56,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.67,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.09,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":123},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:45.762Z","v":3,"id":"d08c1a23-b0ee-4974-b40e-ebc651fa45f5","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7748885104764456,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.6,"year":10,"after":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":65,"treasury":27},"blend":0.13389999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:45.762Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":63,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.41,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:45.923Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":63,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":47,"church":57,"people":63,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.94,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.04,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:47.758Z","v":3,"id":"151f5d61-2c82-4d96-8538-18df1a0543ad","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.12634110572848534,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":61,"treasury":37},"blend":0.27899999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:47.758Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":65,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.65,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.41,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.02,"3":0.73,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:47.955Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":65,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+9"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":65,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.82,"people":1.55,"treasury":2.76},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.97,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.51}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:49.755Z","v":3,"id":"bddb3af1-326a-4e88-99b3-e3e91d104dc5","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2908888666410243,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.19,"year":12,"after":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":66,"treasury":44},"blend":0.06359999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:49.755Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":61,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.74,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.43,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:49.941Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":61,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":61,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.75,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:51.772Z","v":3,"id":"bc2a1d0d-2c1b-4ab7-a817-cedf03b94431","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.61807572287641,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":78,"treasury":41},"blend":0.23369999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:51.772Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.63,"2":0.26,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.52,"2":0.36,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.08,"3":0.9,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.64,"4":0.32}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:51.946Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-17","treasury":"+15"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":66,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.46,"people":0.58,"treasury":3.25},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.19,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-17,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:53.767Z","v":3,"id":"693561c7-6ae1-4ba6-b611-dc8f38a34d57","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.884149576585165,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.42,"year":14,"after":{"army":44,"church":64,"people":79,"treasury":35},"blend":0.2857,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:53.767Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":78,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.82,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:53.958Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":78,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":78,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.56,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.12,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:55.780Z","v":3,"id":"2825a376-2b09-45ed-a9e0-cb40a3311c24","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.26127090983037204,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.98,"year":15,"after":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":77,"treasury":33},"blend":0.2532,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:55.780Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":79,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.36,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.11,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:55.971Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":79,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+8","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":44,"church":64,"people":79,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.8,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2.64,"church":1.89,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":9,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:57.778Z","v":3,"id":"75f649e6-67bf-49e7-a9d4-2909a888e0d5","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.09650560841283462,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.86,"year":16,"after":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":65,"treasury":29},"blend":0.2833,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:57.778Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":77,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.06,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.18,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.16,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:57.926Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":77,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+6","people":"-13","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":77,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":2.52,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.31,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:50:59.779Z","v":3,"id":"0b1de91f-1d92-4486-ba5d-c07d4b98c5aa","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.33078826170928877,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.43,"year":17,"after":{"army":50,"church":61,"people":67,"treasury":27},"blend":0.17719999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:50:59.779Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":65,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.88,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.3,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.46,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.25,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":329},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:00.109Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":65,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-4","church":"+11","people":"+3","treasury":"-10"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":65,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.89,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.08,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":329},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":11,"people":3,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.13,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:01.783Z","v":3,"id":"420fa232-aea4-4799-b5e5-e98a8685062c","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.3937244605351333,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0,"year":18,"after":{"army":51,"church":61,"people":70,"treasury":29},"blend":0.7189000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:01.783Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":67,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.82,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.63,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.07,"3":0.88,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":283},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:02.066Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":67,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"+11"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":61,"people":67,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.88,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.95,"people":1.36,"treasury":2.93}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":283},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:03.767Z","v":3,"id":"57344723-7da5-4d87-bd81-32adcdcc33fb","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.48991791021933984,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.71,"year":19,"after":{"army":52,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":30},"blend":0.15699999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:03.767Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":70,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.43,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.79,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.69,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.69,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.45,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.11,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:03.937Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":70,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-7"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":51,"church":61,"people":70,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.03,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.27,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:05.786Z","v":3,"id":"dcada6cd-5937-450d-83a4-ff8b179b6a55","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.2687061267961519,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":87,"treasury":23},"blend":0.2653,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:05.786Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.5,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.56,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.72,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.2,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.73,"4":0.2}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:05.960Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-17","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":52,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.45,"people":0.56,"treasury":3.09},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.16,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-17,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:07.784Z","v":3,"id":"2ec492ac-d1d4-4049-9709-e6204b665c38","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7156146236524703,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.94,"year":21,"after":{"army":50,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":35},"blend":0.9795,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:07.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.19,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.25,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.59,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.05,"3":0.75,"4":0.13}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:07.976Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"-6","treasury":"+11"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":87,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":2.28,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.95},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.55,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.35}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":-5,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":-6,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:09.789Z","v":3,"id":"5d82a0c9-4ab1-411c-b081-4cfb1b711d5a","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.8078408526302499,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.72,"year":22,"after":{"army":49,"church":67,"people":71,"treasury":32},"blend":0.9412,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:09.789Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.4,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.64,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.37,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.06,"3":0.76,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.33,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:09.985Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+8","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.53,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.35,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:11.791Z","v":3,"id":"de75db4c-3b82-4f3c-bbad-1417dd41d897","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.5508137890104781,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.96,"year":23,"after":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":73,"treasury":32},"blend":0.9047000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:11.791Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":71,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.46,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.05,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.13,"3":0.69,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:11.993Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":71,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":49,"church":67,"people":71,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.97,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.45,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:13.783Z","v":3,"id":"5ef95337-45b2-4e3b-83a5-8642908ed0a4","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5040999365739496,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.14,"year":24,"after":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":76,"treasury":34},"blend":0.045200000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:13.783Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":73,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.21,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.45,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.74,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:13.917Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":73,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":73,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.55,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.6,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:15.784Z","v":3,"id":"5f29c63f-ed91-4e53-bf88-231c0400dc28","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5913121231982179,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.29,"year":25,"after":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":79,"treasury":34},"blend":0.06879999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:15.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":76,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.24,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.72,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:15.964Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":76,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":76,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.68,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.03,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.43,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:17.784Z","v":3,"id":"011a1fbc-10b7-4fd0-89e7-6cf2ee3af8c3","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.22851719564025053,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.58,"year":26,"after":{"army":54,"church":79,"people":83,"treasury":39},"blend":0.13759999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:17.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":79,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.6,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.64,"2":0.2,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:17.947Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":79,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":79,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.71,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.09,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:19.775Z","v":3,"id":"3dbab579-b757-4380-a95c-59dd93f36950","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6918434039631738,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.99,"year":27,"after":{"army":55,"church":66,"people":71,"treasury":55},"blend":0.9979,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:19.775Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.75,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.46,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.53,"4":0.4}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:19.954Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"0","church":"-14","people":"-13","treasury":"+15"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":54,"church":79,"people":83,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":0.86,"people":0.89,"treasury":3.26},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.48,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-13,"people":-12,"treasury":16},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-14,"people":-13,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:21.774Z","v":3,"id":"826e85c1-65bc-45c4-8c95-49af0ae7e3c5","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.26116988493775795,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.66,"year":28,"after":{"army":56,"church":70,"people":80,"treasury":55},"blend":0.15439999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:21.774Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":71,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.19,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.58,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.27,"3":0.71,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:21.919Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":55,"church":66,"people":71,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.6,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.27,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:23.779Z","v":3,"id":"6cc84b98-623b-4da9-b7dd-7b1707dd8ead","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.059225200169248815,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.98,"year":29,"after":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":63},"blend":0.9958,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:23.779Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.66,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.15,"3":0.71,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.04,"3":0.59,"4":0.12}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:23.933Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-7"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-14","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":56,"church":70,"people":80,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.63,"people":0.83,"treasury":2.56},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.91,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:25.784Z","v":3,"id":"30974954-31e5-4146-864b-a9973bd17fcd","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5198144656165979,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.18,"year":30,"after":{"army":47,"church":69,"people":74,"treasury":71},"blend":0.04569999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:25.784Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.58,"2":0.16,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.54,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.91,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.52,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.29,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:26.017Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-7","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-20"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":288}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.29,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.3},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.07,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":288,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:27.777Z","v":3,"id":"6b53e21b-62c0-4592-ae86-b6c271d78b98","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.0942168916320898,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.98,"year":31,"after":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":77},"blend":0.22949999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:27.777Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":74,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.5,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.77,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.29,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.07,"3":0.63,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.43,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:27.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":74,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":47,"church":69,"people":74,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.39,"people":0.83,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.05,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:29.776Z","v":3,"id":"cbc4621d-797a-4bbf-bd1f-125694fa80a5","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.1008221529248432,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.95,"year":32,"after":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":58,"treasury":81},"blend":0.23899999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:29.776Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.53,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.17,"3":0.36,"4":0.12}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.33,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:29.951Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":77},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.85,"people":1.68,"treasury":2.24},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:31.774Z","v":3,"id":"7a912b3f-c4f5-4a12-8d8d-a3b2a4c2e454","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.12223316664186945,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.41,"year":33,"after":{"army":44,"church":64,"people":68,"treasury":77},"blend":0.8365999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:31.774Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.93,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.24,"3":0.74,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:31.961Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":58,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":2.09,"people":2.71,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.89,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:33.778Z","v":3,"id":"2c1c7fd6-d5e9-4d8f-94eb-d8f3cf9600ef","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.17852308378204018,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":1,"year":34,"after":{"army":32,"church":64,"people":53,"treasury":100},"blend":0.23369999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:33.778Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":68,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.77,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.55,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.35,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:33.961Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":68,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Casimir V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-13","church":"-1","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0ae01084-1cca-45eb-99b8-185bd3abeb75","before":{"army":44,"church":64,"people":68,"treasury":77},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.91,"church":1.94,"people":0.64,"treasury":3.93},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.97,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:35.792Z","v":3,"id":"7afb3d5d-0224-4788-acbd-8a0cfe6b6770","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9156151391440237,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":55},"blend":0.5438000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:35.792Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.32,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.67,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.15,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.6,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.2,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:35.951Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-15","treasury":"-15"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.53,"people":0.79,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.13,"people":2.82,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:37.793Z","v":3,"id":"8598e0ea-1262-409b-bfdd-9ec8870cbe2f","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4978723502170328,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.01,"year":2,"after":{"army":47,"church":54,"people":62,"treasury":55},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:37.793Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.23,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":130},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:37.924Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.72,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":2,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":130},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:39.779Z","v":3,"id":"f74b72ab-196f-4e07-ad1f-806ffa6d7cf8","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5344519753723322,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":59,"treasury":52},"blend":0.5538000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:39.779Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":62,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:39.956Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":62,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":47,"church":54,"people":62,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.89,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.07,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:41.794Z","v":3,"id":"ec2674e0-c57e-4bec-a389-b770778703ae","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8453655465505987,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":53},"blend":0.5492,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:41.794Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":59,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.6,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.78,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.38,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:42.011Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":59,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":59,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.63,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.17,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:43.791Z","v":3,"id":"52fa392a-c691-4629-aaca-990addd06fd9","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4533919266713031,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":37,"church":58,"people":53,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5392000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:43.791Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":67,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.59,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.34,"2":0.05,"3":0.47,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.07,"3":0.8,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.41,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":260},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:44.051Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":46,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.96,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.22,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":260},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:45.795Z","v":3,"id":"4200e3fd-b028-46fa-8da9-3ebc596dcb83","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7081418154702988,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.79,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":65,"people":55,"treasury":46},"blend":0.4312,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:45.795Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.19,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:45.947Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":37,"church":58,"people":53,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.47,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.48,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":6,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:47.780Z","v":3,"id":"ce05d13b-bec0-4ef7-86d8-955a4cb37b01","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3086184926074358,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.95,"year":7,"after":{"army":36,"church":65,"people":54,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5176000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:47.780Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":55,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:47.959Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":55,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":38,"church":65,"people":55,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.89,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:49.795Z","v":3,"id":"78fbdcff-7a49-48eb-94bd-545a6f898925","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.7735570950007711,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.89,"year":8,"after":{"army":34,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6416000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:49.795Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":54,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:49.997Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":54,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":36,"church":65,"people":54,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.72,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":2.11,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:51.804Z","v":3,"id":"1fdc5518-59e1-4eac-ba96-31f54ab28198","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.07430977840700503,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":31,"church":66,"people":58,"treasury":39},"blend":0.632,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:51.804Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.08,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.3,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:52.011Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":34,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.87,"people":1.2,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.86,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.59}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:53.798Z","v":3,"id":"a7c7673f-687e-46e3-b495-1471f8c041a3","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.17561351971979078,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0,"year":10,"after":{"army":32,"church":67,"people":60,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0046,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:53.798Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":58,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.72,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.63,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:53.994Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":58,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-14","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":31,"church":66,"people":58,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":1.57,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.68},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:55.796Z","v":3,"id":"f1b12ff8-07b9-4d8e-bb33-3e18d969c33b","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2601311790769911,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":27,"church":70,"people":58,"treasury":41},"blend":0.5538000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:55.796Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":60,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:56.002Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":60,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-6","church":"+2","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":32,"church":67,"people":60,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.17,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.03,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:57.778Z","v":3,"id":"74f42c2d-1827-4644-a5a1-2625d7b20dc6","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.31,"mock":false,"roll":0.8253727840081191,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0,"year":12,"after":{"army":27,"church":77,"people":59,"treasury":42},"blend":0.1426,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:57.778Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":58,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.37,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:57.950Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":58,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":27,"church":70,"people":58,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.33,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.54,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.38}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:51:59.783Z","v":3,"id":"e51cc14e-d88c-4252-bdc9-963eac49b97f","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.17630395153239053,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.09,"year":13,"after":{"army":27,"church":86,"people":61,"treasury":35},"blend":0.11760000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:59.783Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":59,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.27,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.55,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.76,"4":0.12}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:51:59.963Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":59,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-3","church":"-14","people":"-9","treasury":"+11"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"+1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":27,"church":77,"people":59,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":0.86,"people":1.23,"treasury":2.89},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.7,"people":2.11,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2579,"applied":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":2,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-14,"people":-9,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:01.779Z","v":3,"id":"295d4788-ea17-425a-9091-12aba1f56cd2","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.2901863698502347,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.95,"year":14,"after":{"army":22,"church":82,"people":55,"treasury":30},"blend":0.9316,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:01.779Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.7,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.16,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.61,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:01.964Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":27,"church":86,"people":61,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.6,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.52},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.02,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:03.796Z","v":3,"id":"249801df-5b80-430c-b69f-6afa390026a4","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.16369870980995782,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":20,"church":86,"people":53,"treasury":34},"blend":0.54,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:03.796Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.54,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.58,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:03.960Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"-3","treasury":"+3"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":22,"church":82,"people":55,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.28,"people":1.75,"treasury":2.26},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.92,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.36}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":-2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-3,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:05.780Z","v":3,"id":"584d718e-7563-4024-b4ae-f45593838cec","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.7422975141790542,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0,"year":16,"after":{"army":12,"church":90,"people":52,"treasury":34},"blend":0.4278,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:05.780Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.29,"2":0.27,"3":0.29,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.82,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:05.919Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":20,"church":86,"people":53,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.87,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.28,"church":2.26,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":4,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:07.779Z","v":3,"id":"c17710c3-43ce-4c2b-9a62-2e160cee9063","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.12827261873678397,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.92,"year":17,"after":{"army":3,"church":96,"people":45,"treasury":34},"blend":0.4968000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:07.779Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.34,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.18,"2":0.09,"3":0.47,"4":0.16}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.63,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.33,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:07.924Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-10","church":"+5","people":"-8","treasury":"-1"},"Stand":{"army":"0","church":"-13","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":12,"church":90,"people":52,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.42,"people":1.36,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":0.92,"people":2.24,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":6,"people":-7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":5,"people":-8,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-13,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:09.795Z","v":3,"id":"4523681f-c41b-4d10-9f88-35890433bef5","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3820308442769138,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.01,"year":18,"after":{"army":2,"church":96,"people":48,"treasury":36},"blend":0.0054,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:09.795Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.31,"3":0.42,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.75,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:09.977Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-5","church":"+2","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":291}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":3,"church":96,"people":45,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":2.2,"people":1.36,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.94,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":291,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:11.785Z","v":3,"id":"4d1446cd-63ad-46b9-9145-00cb16646da3","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.37131000965871563,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.99,"year":19,"after":{"army":0,"church":91,"people":46,"treasury":37},"blend":0.9716,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:11.785Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.74,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.38,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.24,"3":0.54,"4":0.06}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:11.958Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Edmund V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"-2","church":"+6","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4b59210b-6944-4c50-806e-abda3077a69c","before":{"army":2,"church":96,"people":48,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.54,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.47,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:13.778Z","v":3,"id":"fd1b4095-d143-4471-bf5e-2a89ffbb6b96","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0014918003748922715,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.15,"year":1,"after":{"army":41,"church":45,"people":42,"treasury":45},"blend":0.0486,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:13.778Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.61,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.41,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:13.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:15.777Z","v":3,"id":"c1ec8701-eed8-425c-8c0b-f54738857c39","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.24264047688364698,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.25,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":46},"blend":0.0862,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:15.777Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":42,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.84,"1":0.14,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.56,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.14,"2":0.06,"3":0.62,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.57,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.29,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.55,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.12,"3":0.67,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:15.979Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:17.859Z","v":3,"id":"27837237-1f70-4c03-88dd-91486c68a862","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.51697393978989,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.94,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9556,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:17.859Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":46,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:18.061Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.92,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.97,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:19.785Z","v":3,"id":"214a692b-48a7-4312-8b29-03a70b50bb5e","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8505619037823138,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.19,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":48,"treasury":48},"blend":0.0496,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:19.785Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":46,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.17,"3":0.64,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.29,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:20.019Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":46,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-8","church":"+7","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":2.55,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.53,"people":2.12,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":7,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:21.836Z","v":3,"id":"c0e11413-5a29-4015-be8c-33389b9aff51","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6582775066544471,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.04,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":51,"treasury":49},"blend":0.7498,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:21.836Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":48,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.68,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.63,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:22.006Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":48,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"+7"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":48,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.88,"people":2.16,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.92,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:23.801Z","v":3,"id":"b142a900-775b-4f77-886f-a45c2d1ae081","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.7739785570192832,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.04,"year":6,"after":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"blend":0.04,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:23.801Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":51,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.74,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.45,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:23.940Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":51,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+3","church":"+4","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":51,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.54,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":2.34,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":4,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:25.783Z","v":3,"id":"5e10ae71-1fe3-40ff-86d4-546f4eb4f553","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.160786542835605,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":43,"treasury":42},"blend":0.22119999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:25.783Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.74,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:26.017Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.46,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.01,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:27.807Z","v":3,"id":"362fbee1-1afc-43f3-a2d0-98962fa074df","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.4606102912987755,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.24,"year":8,"after":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":53,"treasury":32},"blend":0.19319999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:27.807Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.07,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.3,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:27.970Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":43,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.84,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.97,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:29.800Z","v":3,"id":"a283a36a-1872-43af-ad32-364c46e2f306","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4952893889881107,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.98,"year":9,"after":{"army":46,"church":54,"people":62,"treasury":33},"blend":0.22339999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:29.800Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":53,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.28,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.66,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.62,"2":0.15,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.38,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":222},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:30.022Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":53,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.43,"people":0.72,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.44,"people":2.7,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":222},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:31.803Z","v":3,"id":"be142c40-8d6c-44e5-ab95-d746121acc17","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9703602731611143,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.65,"year":10,"after":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":67,"treasury":42},"blend":0.1508,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:31.803Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":62,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.39,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.29,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:32.028Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":62,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+3","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":46,"church":54,"people":62,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.67,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":2.02,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":4,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:33.808Z","v":3,"id":"61293ddf-cc1b-492c-980a-fd73ee35b208","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5156348955973407,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:33.808Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:33.982Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":67,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.95,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.85,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:35.795Z","v":3,"id":"ab996f37-0b04-42db-8a31-9532c5da3ae6","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.4472441738899413,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.96,"year":12,"after":{"army":54,"church":54,"people":65,"treasury":37},"blend":0.25799999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:35.795Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":66,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.32,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.4,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.47,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:35.983Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.02,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":2.26,"church":1.84,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:37.797Z","v":3,"id":"f7dceeec-335b-4ed5-9667-4ef891a1b256","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.517653757230973,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":54,"church":60,"people":66,"treasury":37},"blend":0.2568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:37.797Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":65,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.25,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.38,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:38.005Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":65,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":54,"church":54,"people":65,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.32,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.79},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.4,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:39.788Z","v":3,"id":"5316ae6b-803d-421d-9ea1-6b26da7f1003","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8082098030076978,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":50,"church":59,"people":67,"treasury":41},"blend":0.22559999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:39.788Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":66,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.22,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.59,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.92,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.38,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:39.993Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":66,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-13"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":54,"church":60,"people":66,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.78,"people":1.22,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.85,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:41.790Z","v":3,"id":"27f14caf-ecbe-4050-8e44-5ad2f3a2c9b5","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.05267384979753653,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.94,"year":15,"after":{"army":37,"church":45,"people":50,"treasury":28},"blend":0.22239999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:41.790Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.64,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.59,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.5,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:41.975Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"+3"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-15","people":"-18","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":50,"church":59,"people":67,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":0.73,"people":0.51,"treasury":0.84},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2.31,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-14,"people":-17,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-15,"people":-18,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:43.789Z","v":3,"id":"55f7b3a2-30e4-4320-8e05-2c3f964e3ff5","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7093961788346224,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.94,"year":16,"after":{"army":37,"church":49,"people":56,"treasury":33},"blend":0.21459999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:43.789Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":50,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.21,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.79,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.67,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.64,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.48,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:43.990Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":50,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-8","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":37,"church":45,"people":50,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.01,"people":0.68,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.24,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:45.794Z","v":3,"id":"b9c04b9c-854a-4e41-a4fd-c0c01f240298","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5439636947841986,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":37,"church":51,"people":61,"treasury":36},"blend":0.22779999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:45.794Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":56,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.7,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.53,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.57,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:45.985Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":56,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+2"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":37,"church":49,"people":56,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.1,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.06,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:47.799Z","v":3,"id":"63346a92-0482-4ba0-b315-bcaede1a4536","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.842611302357057,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.01,"year":18,"after":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":64,"treasury":37},"blend":0.0021999999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:47.799Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":61,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.66,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:47.966Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":37,"church":51,"people":61,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.01,"people":2.16,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:49.812Z","v":3,"id":"4925889c-c09d-4fe9-ad7e-2f5c4bc9dcd5","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.1941378625474579,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":19,"after":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":66,"treasury":38},"blend":0.9744,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:49.812Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":64,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":261},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:50.073Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":64,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.12,"church":2.06,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.77,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":261},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:51.798Z","v":3,"id":"02344c5f-eae3-434e-8786-eb7152cf15ae","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8375892864613119,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0,"year":20,"after":{"army":43,"church":55,"people":70,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0078000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:51.798Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":66,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.58,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":283},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:52.080Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":66,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":66,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.79,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":283},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:53.803Z","v":3,"id":"e9653eb4-104a-4792-8540-29329afd327c","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.973496332255716,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.47,"year":21,"after":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":82,"treasury":46},"blend":0.11119999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:53.803Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":70,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.46,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.74,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.64,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.65,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.2,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:53.965Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":70,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-15","treasury":"-14"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":43,"church":55,"people":70,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.58,"people":0.71,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.12,"people":2.88,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:55.807Z","v":3,"id":"c0c4f2a9-0ece-4203-910e-d99b161fc170","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.41599813343330005,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":22,"after":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":78,"treasury":38},"blend":0.912,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:55.807Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.9,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:55.987Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":82,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.91,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.95,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:57.813Z","v":3,"id":"46295816-1476-4325-bb1b-b6f94d994576","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.5422819972070785,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":43,"church":57,"people":87,"treasury":34},"blend":0.3092,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:57.813Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":78,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.6,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.9,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.12,"3":0.74,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:57.986Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":78,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":282}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":78,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.73,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.89,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":282,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:52:59.818Z","v":3,"id":"8227b2cf-72f7-43de-9975-5f4a74496a5b","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.898995879355061,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":24,"after":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":85,"treasury":33},"blend":0.8964,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:59.818Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.21,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.58,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.26,"2":0.41,"3":0.18,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.29,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:52:59.975Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+6","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":43,"church":57,"people":87,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.77,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":2.53,"church":1.82,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":6,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:01.815Z","v":3,"id":"6e383f9b-d363-4795-b1bc-c05042272c3b","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7487137109817741,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.13,"year":25,"after":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":77,"treasury":22},"blend":0.8086,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:01.815Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.41,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:01.956Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":85,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.83,"people":1.26,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.06,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:03.818Z","v":3,"id":"9e572a6f-7489-406c-bce8-66a57c4fdb16","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.21485608004111323,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.71,"year":26,"after":{"army":45,"church":56,"people":78,"treasury":28},"blend":0.8582000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:03.818Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":77,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1876,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.52,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":276},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:04.094Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":77,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":680,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":77,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.98,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.96,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2556,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":276},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:05.819Z","v":3,"id":"99785e67-eda1-4064-8253-548935f85c4e","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.6637078678540673,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.16,"year":27,"after":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":82,"treasury":31},"blend":0.667,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:05.819Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":78,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.17,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.09,"3":0.73,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.18,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.25,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:05.979Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":45,"church":56,"people":78,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.05,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.64,"people":1.3,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-11,"people":3,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":-8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:07.807Z","v":3,"id":"5b2dcf94-0f70-4177-9751-88b49e3b01de","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.11533504884365264,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.95,"year":28,"after":{"army":42,"church":43,"people":73,"treasury":27},"blend":0.9812,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:07.807Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:08.016Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":82,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.69,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.04,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:09.809Z","v":3,"id":"9bbe7aa3-3328-4499-a3c4-daee7ac0e0d9","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.79,"mock":false,"roll":0.7901181570108486,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.9,"year":29,"after":{"army":47,"church":35,"people":71,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8142,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:09.809Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":73,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.49,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.28,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:09.978Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:11.807Z","v":3,"id":"374622e4-aa0c-478c-bd8c-aa2657e28ec5","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.7102627018759542,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.98,"year":30,"after":{"army":48,"church":36,"people":72,"treasury":30},"blend":0.9722,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:11.807Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":71,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.72,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:11.969Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":47,"church":35,"people":71,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.81,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:13.816Z","v":3,"id":"af7f722e-4183-410e-9122-10b2a5681807","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.44,"mock":false,"roll":0.5119961483960234,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.04,"year":31,"after":{"army":50,"church":26,"people":78,"treasury":22},"blend":0.352,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:13.816Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":72,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.06,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.31,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.31,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:13.946Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":72,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-4","church":"+10","people":"+4","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":48,"church":36,"people":72,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":2.83,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.1,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":6,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.13}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:15.824Z","v":3,"id":"2fc53327-5315-459a-b490-36db79ba609b","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.06322159195902222,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.17,"year":32,"after":{"army":42,"church":31,"people":63,"treasury":13},"blend":0.0842,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:15.824Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":78,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.76,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.25,"2":0.02,"3":0.57,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.14,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.69,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:15.959Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":78,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-16","treasury":"-10"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":50,"church":26,"people":78,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.37,"people":0.67,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.24,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-16,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:17.803Z","v":3,"id":"f85b8361-d1b5-4abc-8e20-352c77e0cc74","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8831794788805125,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.07,"year":33,"after":{"army":46,"church":23,"people":70,"treasury":22},"blend":0.015399999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:17.803Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.67,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.18,"2":0.02,"3":0.47,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.5,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.07,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.17,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.29,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:18.019Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-13","church":"0","people":"-17","treasury":"-23"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+3","church":"-9","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":42,"church":31,"people":63,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.91,"church":1.97,"people":0.61,"treasury":0.05},"right":{"army":2.26,"church":1.23,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2718,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:19.824Z","v":3,"id":"e6dc1f4f-4aaf-4590-bf75-59600171d4e9","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric III","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.08568226166330994,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.57,"year":34,"after":{"army":39,"church":13,"people":56,"treasury":0},"blend":0.12539999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:19.824Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":70,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Aldric III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.62,"2":0.15,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.67,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.73,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.54,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.91,"1":0.09,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:19.991Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":70,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Aldric III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-8","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a160a6ca-8d35-4261-85b1-d4fc23c583a1","before":{"army":46,"church":23,"people":70,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.05,"people":0.79,"treasury":0.1},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.04,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:34.400Z","v":3,"id":"d115523d-62fd-4e50-ad8f-2e228a9a8297","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.21787156430712962,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.97,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5308,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:34.400Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.57,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.85,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.24,"3":0.6900000000000001,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.17,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":394},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:34.795Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":369}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.82,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":2.12,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.69}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":369,"forecast":394},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-12,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.51}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:36.403Z","v":3,"id":"e2705596-ff80-4056-aa60-536c8759fbc1","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9016106696573287,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.9,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":50,"people":51,"treasury":44},"blend":0.35710000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:36.403Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":42,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.82,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.62,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.57,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.9,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.1,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.42,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:36.661Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":42,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.7,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:38.406Z","v":3,"id":"c5e607ea-659f-49dc-8431-5b6dae1b76d5","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.14033007011558052,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":44,"people":47,"treasury":43},"blend":0.4388,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:38.406Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.42,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:38.630Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":53,"church":50,"people":51,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.4,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.42,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:40.419Z","v":3,"id":"4f2c305f-3d72-441b-b927-c611d2eb6ad1","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.2520563032703542,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.16,"year":4,"after":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":49,"treasury":44},"blend":0.221,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:40.419Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":47,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.09,"3":0.64,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.31,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.61,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.12,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.56,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:40.621Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":47,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":53,"church":44,"people":47,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.48,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.62,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:42.411Z","v":3,"id":"aa77aaf6-620e-4188-9aee-f4c0ea609c48","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.20934228179463243,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.24,"year":5,"after":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":52,"treasury":50},"blend":0.0997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:42.411Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":49,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.18,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.46,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:42.622Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":49,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":254}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":49,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":2.21,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.06,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":254,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:44.424Z","v":3,"id":"38be8351-c95e-47ea-8741-ef21b4f8d709","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.48878431701715774,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.03,"year":6,"after":{"army":56,"church":43,"people":52,"treasury":55},"blend":0.0239,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:44.424Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.7,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.34,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:44.621Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":114}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":52,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.9,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.98,"people":1.89,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":114,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:46.415Z","v":3,"id":"54e8f717-14c5-4efb-aa08-d8bdfa573561","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.9968043228604526,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.53,"year":7,"after":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":51,"treasury":56},"blend":0.7191,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:46.415Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":52,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.89,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.49,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:46.574Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":52,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":56,"church":43,"people":52,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.03,"church":2.11,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.82,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:48.415Z","v":3,"id":"af83a530-a1d6-4c79-8231-a9c39f158636","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0799889073024318,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.97,"year":8,"after":{"army":54,"church":34,"people":38,"treasury":52},"blend":0.3905,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:48.415Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":51,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.44,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.7,"2":0.07,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.37,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.19,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:48.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":51,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-14","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":51,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.25,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.44,"people":2.69,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:50.414Z","v":3,"id":"1709f6aa-97f5-434c-8467-d8b3e875cdaf","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5224959173184032,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.89,"year":9,"after":{"army":55,"church":35,"people":41,"treasury":50},"blend":0.3532,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:50.414Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":38,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.6,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.66,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:50.603Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":38,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":54,"church":34,"people":38,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.48,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.01,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:52.414Z","v":3,"id":"f390aec0-f1f0-40df-b7ba-bf25163282a9","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.014372416811597732,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.61,"year":10,"after":{"army":53,"church":36,"people":30,"treasury":46},"blend":0.2562,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:52.414Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":41,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.41,"2":0.07,"3":0.45,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.26,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.4,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.26,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.54,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:52.611Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":41,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":55,"church":35,"people":41,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.99,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.6,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:54.413Z","v":3,"id":"3900aa98-0288-487b-9d81-f9b513cf0b15","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2346675072272697,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.75,"year":11,"after":{"army":42,"church":26,"people":16,"treasury":30},"blend":0.2986,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:54.413Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.76,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.62,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:54.581Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:56.417Z","v":3,"id":"780d7580-baf3-4e05-b761-1a4031c08421","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5882815910286099,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.91,"year":12,"after":{"army":43,"church":29,"people":19,"treasury":36},"blend":0.35490000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:56.417Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.49,"2":0.35,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.69,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.7,"1":0.3,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.52,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.44,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:56.627Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-14","people":"-20","treasury":"-14"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":42,"church":26,"people":16,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":0.82,"people":0.31,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.16,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-14,"people":-20,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:53:58.420Z","v":3,"id":"98dc3244-8c87-42fe-a8ba-f6d09fdc8603","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5182692027441014,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":16,"treasury":35},"blend":0.3922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:58.420Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.2,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.67,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.44,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.32,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:53:58.576Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+3","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":43,"church":29,"people":19,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.53,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":1.59,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:00.432Z","v":3,"id":"7c24b57a-6b3b-4cbf-84ee-416d4693c9ee","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8815470876175895,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":46,"church":25,"people":24,"treasury":30},"blend":0.3861,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:00.432Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.42,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.48,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.58,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.15,"3":0.71,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.23,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:00.600Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-18","treasury":"-4"},"Meet them":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":109}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":16,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.5,"people":0.49,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.95,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":109,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-18,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:02.426Z","v":3,"id":"2e9f69b5-6bb9-43d3-a413-1b93a84b1c3c","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9792354850492602,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.98,"year":15,"after":{"army":41,"church":24,"people":24,"treasury":35},"blend":0.3944,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:02.426Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":24,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.23,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.55,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.92,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.32,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:02.605Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":24,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-13"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":46,"church":25,"people":24,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.72,"people":1.21,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.83,"people":1.91,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:04.426Z","v":3,"id":"6b81af0a-7881-4718-9ff2-421092768baa","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4680293113105287,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.97,"year":16,"after":{"army":43,"church":30,"people":33,"treasury":38},"blend":0.3844,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:04.426Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":24,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.78,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.48,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.36,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.51,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.31,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.59,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:04.579Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":24,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-17","people":"-20","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":41,"church":24,"people":24,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.82,"church":0.59,"people":0.37,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.42,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":9,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-17,"people":-20,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:06.421Z","v":3,"id":"86fd0841-c203-493f-8388-db7e75353b8e","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.22101732619052084,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.01,"year":17,"after":{"army":41,"church":30,"people":34,"treasury":40},"blend":0.5956,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:06.421Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:06.661Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":43,"church":30,"people":33,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.95,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.68,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:08.423Z","v":3,"id":"0902fdb0-066f-4ca2-80f2-3f44d988b1fd","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.2026966198602116,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.99,"year":18,"after":{"army":44,"church":32,"people":36,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9717,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:08.423Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":34,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.78,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:08.575Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":34,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":271}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":41,"church":30,"people":34,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.18,"church":2.08,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.84,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":271,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:10.436Z","v":3,"id":"2e4499ff-4d62-4d53-9d08-d2a2c230ddc7","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.03832113869444331,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.19,"year":19,"after":{"army":35,"church":26,"people":27,"treasury":34},"blend":0.0863,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:10.436Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":36,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.5,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.71,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:10.580Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":36,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":44,"church":32,"people":36,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.43,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.46,"church":2.25,"people":2.6,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":6,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:12.432Z","v":3,"id":"fa85a646-1af0-40fb-aa31-478d2b8169ad","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.05315020294775863,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.97,"year":20,"after":{"army":28,"church":20,"people":18,"treasury":25},"blend":0.3844,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:12.432Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":27,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.68,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:12.570Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":35,"church":26,"people":27,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.42,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:14.428Z","v":3,"id":"59921fd0-7619-4186-a777-f0a9b6a1dc45","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6146487710315642,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":0.01,"year":21,"after":{"army":30,"church":21,"people":17,"treasury":27},"blend":0.0039000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:14.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1958,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.53,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:14.643Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":28,"church":20,"people":18,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.28,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.96,"people":1.81,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2742,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:16.446Z","v":3,"id":"a4b65a14-ea21-4d96-b165-6b88d36dacc3","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9706658612687546,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.24,"year":22,"after":{"army":33,"church":29,"people":29,"treasury":28},"blend":0.0936,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:16.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.57,"2":0.12,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.23,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.6,"1":0.4,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:16.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-9","church":"-10","people":"-19","treasury":"-6"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":30,"church":21,"people":17,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.19,"people":0.41,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2.58,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":3,"church":8,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-10,"people":-19,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:18.446Z","v":3,"id":"89ac6ff9-3484-42e6-8d61-0417f1f11573","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6221570942462671,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":23,"after":{"army":34,"church":32,"people":35,"treasury":31},"blend":0.3961,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:18.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":29,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.72,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.73,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:18.639Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":29,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+2"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-12","people":"-14","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":33,"church":29,"people":29,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":0.96,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.15,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-12,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:20.429Z","v":3,"id":"7400f56f-7178-4b20-9fda-9c2e2fa98089","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6375821549454987,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.2,"year":24,"after":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":37,"treasury":32},"blend":0.08410000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:20.429Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":35,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.22,"3":0.56,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.42,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.72,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:20.564Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":35,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":34,"church":32,"people":35,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.39,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.52,"people":2.11,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:22.428Z","v":3,"id":"b90850c8-dbfb-47a7-adb0-8a16dd6027e3","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8303933036104618,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":25,"after":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":36,"treasury":31},"blend":0.9839,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:22.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":37,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.54,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.43,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:22.600Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":37,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":111}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":37,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.94,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.85,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.51}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":111,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:24.445Z","v":3,"id":"ee6b7069-5f09-4e6e-b50c-7de296739a2a","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8716425488528252,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.15,"year":26,"after":{"army":29,"church":37,"people":32,"treasury":32},"blend":0.0768,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:24.445Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":36,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.48,"2":0.22,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.3,"2":0.25,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:24.631Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":36,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"0"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":36,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.84,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":1.72,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:26.446Z","v":3,"id":"505bde83-c1de-4393-95dd-5f1b2c8bb36c","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9588516944788279,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.03,"year":27,"after":{"army":32,"church":44,"people":39,"treasury":31},"blend":0.0422,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:26.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":32,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.69,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.43,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.47,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.31,"4":0.64}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:26.615Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":32,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+6","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-15","people":"-15","treasury":"+18"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":29,"church":37,"people":32,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":0.71,"people":0.79,"treasury":3.53},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":2.52,"people":2.48,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":7,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-15,"treasury":18},"right":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:28.447Z","v":3,"id":"d1030fd8-9f6c-46d8-a029-2cb58e69df44","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.40477458285000356,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.14,"year":28,"after":{"army":27,"church":44,"people":39,"treasury":24},"blend":0.06070000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:28.447Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":39,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.13,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.4,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.61,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.63,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:28.610Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":39,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-16"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":32,"church":44,"people":39,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.13,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.64},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.91,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:30.441Z","v":3,"id":"4cac196a-f28f-4092-96bd-66dfc15b3db5","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.861470735808457,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.12,"year":29,"after":{"army":29,"church":36,"people":51,"treasury":26},"blend":0.0712,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:30.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":39,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.06,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.65,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:30.664Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":39,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+11","treasury":"+1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"-15","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":27,"church":44,"people":39,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":2.11,"people":0.78,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.25,"people":2.91,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:32.448Z","v":3,"id":"87b38770-3522-481e-ad98-80ffb763a010","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.3699415799387,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.98,"year":30,"after":{"army":22,"church":37,"people":48,"treasury":25},"blend":0.4798,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:32.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":51,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.18,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.27,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.48,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.52,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:32.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":51,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":29,"church":36,"people":51,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.99,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.79,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:34.430Z","v":3,"id":"09c43042-bb70-48af-9a2b-c67f9f131cca","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8180251509611265,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":31,"after":{"army":22,"church":38,"people":49,"treasury":24},"blend":0.3861,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:34.430Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":48,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.89,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:34.642Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":48,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":22,"church":37,"people":48,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.92,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.98,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:36.433Z","v":3,"id":"dde5de85-482f-449a-8215-e10f225bfc11","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8080677096798197,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0,"year":32,"after":{"army":23,"church":39,"people":53,"treasury":29},"blend":0.0061,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:36.433Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":49,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.79,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.6,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.53,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:36.651Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":49,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":22,"church":38,"people":49,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.76,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.02,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:38.438Z","v":3,"id":"32d3689a-cf7a-4d23-8350-c635bb6e590b","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.427532845535745,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.65,"year":33,"after":{"army":24,"church":32,"people":63,"treasury":27},"blend":0.2718,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:38.438Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":53,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.54,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.34,"2":0.04,"3":0.46,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.05,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.69,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.38,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:38.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":53,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"-16","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+9","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":23,"church":39,"people":53,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.92,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.34,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:40.433Z","v":3,"id":"6a1cdb13-a81f-4727-91bd-7b50e0d8991a","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.04445595540350711,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.95,"year":34,"after":{"army":25,"church":33,"people":64,"treasury":28},"blend":0.9621999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:40.433Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":63,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:40.608Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":63,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":24,"church":32,"people":63,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.97,"people":1.97,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.9,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:42.447Z","v":3,"id":"3985cd98-aa7f-4baa-9c42-0beb64fef03e","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.5881600164880605,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.51,"year":35,"after":{"army":21,"church":34,"people":74,"treasury":22},"blend":0.3148,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:42.447Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":64,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.54,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.96,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.15,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.9,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:42.616Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":64,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-7"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":25,"church":33,"people":64,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.73,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.93},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":2,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.44}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.62}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:44.447Z","v":3,"id":"e42a3757-832a-48fa-8e46-077b518b1a12","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.6473577284662193,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.5,"year":36,"after":{"army":20,"church":36,"people":75,"treasury":13},"blend":0.3536,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:44.447Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":74,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.74,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:44.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":21,"church":34,"people":74,"treasury":22},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.5,"people":1.54,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.11,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.49}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:46.436Z","v":3,"id":"f38089a8-b038-4019-a7fd-e820f5b41e47","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9211059626634028,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.04,"year":37,"after":{"army":17,"church":27,"people":78,"treasury":7},"blend":0.0339,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:46.436Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.68,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.43,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.07,"3":0.64,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.25,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.65,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.41,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:46.662Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-8","treasury":"-4"},"Stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"+2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":766,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":119}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":20,"church":36,"people":75,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":2.42,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.13,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":119,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:48.436Z","v":3,"id":"ff9786cf-a906-462d-b9f8-0b641d506615","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.4579654016010486,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.89,"year":38,"after":{"army":14,"church":22,"people":68,"treasury":2},"blend":0.8961000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:48.436Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.44,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.24,"2":0.32,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.12,"2":0.05,"3":0.7,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.51,"2":0.26,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.46,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:48.603Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":17,"church":27,"people":78,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.49,"people":1.09,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":1.75,"people":2.39,"treasury":0.47}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":5,"treasury":-18}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:50.436Z","v":3,"id":"8a66e6fd-a113-47fa-a766-55fcdb9c9975","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.6907501435597323,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.61,"year":39,"after":{"army":12,"church":20,"people":56,"treasury":11},"blend":0.8357,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:50.436Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.45,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.31,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.39,"2":0.05,"3":0.39999999999999997,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.9,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.58,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.51,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.06,"3":0.78,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.28,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:50.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-13","treasury":"+8"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":14,"church":22,"people":68,"treasury":2},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.78,"people":0.92,"treasury":2.68},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":2.01,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2732,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.23,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:52.437Z","v":3,"id":"c3c6d10c-b9d2-469b-8610-4743b0978109","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.773312687931202,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.92,"year":40,"after":{"army":10,"church":20,"people":59,"treasury":9},"blend":0.3588,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:52.437Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1961,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.53,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.35,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.72,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.68,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.34,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:52.623Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-16","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-19"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":808,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":12,"church":20,"people":56,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.7,"church":1.33,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.39},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.94,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2769,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:54.435Z","v":3,"id":"22ecbf17-47cc-4393-8332-3c19bf12ddae","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6361968331023271,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.92,"year":41,"after":{"army":4,"church":18,"people":57,"treasury":3},"blend":0.9383,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:54.435Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1965,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.58,"2":0.26,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.64,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.29,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.44,"2":0.12,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.71,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.16,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.42,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:54.653Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-11","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":808,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":10,"church":20,"people":59,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.74,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":1.11,"church":1.48,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.54}},"tokens":2773,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-11,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-18}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:56.437Z","v":3,"id":"52b54b07-4d5a-4ef8-a3c6-95f6df080229","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.28222253130950237,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.58,"year":42,"after":{"army":1,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":2},"blend":0.7995999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:56.437Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1967,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.44,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.93,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.61,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.28,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.42,"2":0.27,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:56.631Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-4","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-2"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":805,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":4,"church":18,"people":57,"treasury":3},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":2.15,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":1.3,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2772,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:54:58.437Z","v":3,"id":"6bc5311b-1615-40f7-8568-2faae9ef31a0","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Theobald II","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.6989958696420198,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.92,"year":43,"after":{"army":0,"church":18,"people":68,"treasury":0},"blend":0.5723,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:58.437Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Theobald II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1969,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.47,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.47,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.22,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.25,"2":0.54,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.29,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:54:58.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Theobald II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":788,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":271}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"34a4b3cf-24f3-4217-bcd2-da1038e71950","before":{"army":1,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":2},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.75,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.38,"church":1.7,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2757,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":271,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.31}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:00.435Z","v":3,"id":"afa926cf-6939-4b8e-9c7a-6472d609a191","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Theobald I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2864389391620099,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":36,"treasury":34},"blend":0.7283999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:00.435Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Theobald I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.07,"3":0.5,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.59,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:00.646Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-17"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":250}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1d2cec2-d7cb-46f3-9389-63beeba8196d","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.1,"church":1.07,"people":0.72,"treasury":0.62},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.99,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":250,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:02.459Z","v":3,"id":"7129d39c-49ad-404e-82b7-12f3e232d84f","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Theobald I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.30946829510154217,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":58,"church":32,"people":16,"treasury":26},"blend":0.7283999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:02.459Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":36,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Theobald I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.18,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.4,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.73,"1":0.27,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.65,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:02.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":36,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+5","church":"-9","people":"-21","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1d2cec2-d7cb-46f3-9389-63beeba8196d","before":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":36,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.39,"church":1.23,"people":0.28,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":2.25,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-9,"people":-21,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:04.444Z","v":3,"id":"e067d206-6b4f-4e90-8773-52b5dae60f1d","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Theobald I","wisdom":0.28},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.613276618022951,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.03,"year":3,"after":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":7,"treasury":18},"blend":0.30160000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:04.444Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Theobald I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.62,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:04.652Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Theobald I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":728,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1d2cec2-d7cb-46f3-9389-63beeba8196d","before":{"army":58,"church":32,"people":16,"treasury":26},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.92,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.52,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.24}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:06.458Z","v":3,"id":"9545bb47-8da8-421e-a7a4-7e32e0fcad3d","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Theobald I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.76,"mock":false,"roll":0.7526193163925681,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.13,"year":4,"after":{"army":62,"church":19,"people":0,"treasury":8},"blend":0.3064,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:06.458Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.25,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.49,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.53,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.47,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.28,"2":0.53,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:06.626Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1d2cec2-d7cb-46f3-9389-63beeba8196d","before":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":7,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.84,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":1.28,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-8,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.52}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:08.441Z","v":3,"id":"f8cbf6ef-aa6d-4aa8-978e-dcc9a8ab40b6","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.7519344036953615,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.3,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":40,"people":51,"treasury":43},"blend":0.3252,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:08.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.2,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.39999999999999997,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.12,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:08.616Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":2.9,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.09,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.35}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":1,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":0,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.17}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:10.450Z","v":3,"id":"f7f24a4e-b417-4fe4-af1b-022dbadb1c92","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3499158080865803,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.51,"year":2,"after":{"army":48,"church":36,"people":47,"treasury":36},"blend":0.4071,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:10.450Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.63,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:10.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":242}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":50,"church":40,"people":51,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.56,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.22,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":242,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:12.442Z","v":3,"id":"f3103381-1f81-4c51-9648-716db8c7d845","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6639765724844611,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.98,"year":3,"after":{"army":35,"church":20,"people":32,"treasury":25},"blend":0.7763,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:12.442Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":47,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.47,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.73,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.85,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:12.595Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":48,"church":36,"people":47,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":0.55,"people":0.66,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.17,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-16,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-17,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:14.445Z","v":3,"id":"6516107c-ee54-464c-9908-25598f400a7d","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.06583081218646658,"step":12,"trap":0.87,"want":0.79,"year":4,"after":{"army":27,"church":10,"people":23,"treasury":17},"blend":0.6241000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:14.445Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.87,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.5,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.71,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.44,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.44,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:14.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+5","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-9","church":"-11","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":35,"church":20,"people":32,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.1,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.28},"right":{"army":2.26,"church":2.38,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2674,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-10,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-11,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":3,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:16.462Z","v":3,"id":"94ed9e44-f2c0-4389-abb0-0265401b2f1c","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.49626872230735386,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.22,"year":5,"after":{"army":28,"church":10,"people":24,"treasury":19},"blend":0.1738,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:16.462Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.32,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.43,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:16.627Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":112}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":27,"church":10,"people":23,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.33,"people":1.48,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.95,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":112,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:18.444Z","v":3,"id":"25dd3d74-89c8-4abc-858f-d724e29c8a17","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5454454293708753,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.97,"year":6,"after":{"army":21,"church":3,"people":14,"treasury":6},"blend":0.7663,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:18.444Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.45,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.44,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.56,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.5,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:18.591Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-8","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":28,"church":10,"people":24,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.36,"people":1.11,"treasury":0.84},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.81,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2740,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:20.443Z","v":3,"id":"959705f9-98dd-47cf-851e-de483893a1e2","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.21},"know":0.63,"mock":false,"roll":0.17086015598806292,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.21,"year":7,"after":{"army":19,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":8},"blend":0.2982,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:20.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.31,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.49,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.52,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.74,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":317},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:20.760Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 21% of the time.","description":"Radulf I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":797,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"677e2820-4398-42d6-8380-eaba190cd8b0","before":{"army":21,"church":3,"people":14,"treasury":6},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.57,"people":1.56,"treasury":2.07},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.65,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2752,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":317},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.25}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:22.458Z","v":3,"id":"2390a20a-a2e9-4885-8b73-ce11fc3aa5b7","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.848304746812272,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":41},"blend":0.4048,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:22.458Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.15,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.4,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:22.625Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-5","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+6","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:24.457Z","v":3,"id":"d4de65df-d49a-45ac-81d1-89ec7b487307","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2384511641300262,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.72,"year":2,"after":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":35},"blend":0.27199999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:24.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.26,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.25,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.4,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":331},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:24.789Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":46,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.38,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":2.37,"church":2.59,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":331},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:26.446Z","v":3,"id":"00d52c59-3401-4d25-b602-7bf7b133990a","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2680794748047506,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":48,"church":40,"people":39,"treasury":13},"blend":0.3628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:26.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":52,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.39,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.82,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.59,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.37,"3":0.59,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:26.607Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":52,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.16,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.08,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:28.460Z","v":3,"id":"faafeb30-3828-4f7a-80fe-6e526fe1fbb2","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9284281227859452,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.92,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":7},"blend":0.3312,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:28.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.58,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:28.686Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":48,"church":40,"people":39,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.62,"people":1,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.9,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:30.443Z","v":3,"id":"da7ca8a8-9585-40c6-a218-f2225341bced","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.1531241602476554,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.33,"year":5,"after":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":60,"treasury":7},"blend":0.746,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:30.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.5,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.89,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.27,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.38,"2":0.28,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":277},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:30.720Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":2.29,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.36,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":277},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:32.448Z","v":3,"id":"9f70bd12-608b-4edd-9b82-fd3b5a38dff9","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5771351275636203,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.48,"year":6,"after":{"army":44,"church":46,"people":66,"treasury":11},"blend":0.17279999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:32.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.55,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.35,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.47,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.34,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:32.623Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-13","church":"-10","people":"-16","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":60,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.89,"church":1.19,"people":0.7,"treasury":0.66},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.06,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-10,"people":-16,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:34.449Z","v":3,"id":"7c206742-947e-4e80-9412-26cc12ae1854","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7583009557208493,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":37,"church":46,"people":66,"treasury":3},"blend":0.3792,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:34.449Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.36,"2":0.09,"3":0.43,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.71,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.5,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.65,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:34.607Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-18","treasury":"-23"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":44,"church":46,"people":66,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":0.95,"people":0.52,"treasury":0.12},"right":{"army":1.35,"church":1.93,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-18,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:36.446Z","v":3,"id":"739f4b9a-deb3-47ea-9826-51f3a2ba13c6","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.36365748035247747,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.11,"year":8,"after":{"army":37,"church":46,"people":64,"treasury":15},"blend":0.039599999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:36.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.64,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.34,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.22,"2":0.42,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.09,"2":0.1,"3":0.71,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.39,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.08,"3":0.78,"4":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:36.657Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":727,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":37,"church":46,"people":66,"treasury":3},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.84,"people":2.49,"treasury":0.43},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.92,"people":1.76,"treasury":2.92}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:38.449Z","v":3,"id":"7272d129-7d68-45fc-bee1-5104dda3782d","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5045633456101459,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.34,"year":9,"after":{"army":41,"church":38,"people":63,"treasury":13},"blend":0.7496,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:38.449Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.53,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.57,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.08,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.24,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.75,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:38.684Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+7","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+3","church":"-9","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":37,"church":46,"people":64,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.24,"church":1.25,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.05,"church":2.56,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-11,"church":7,"people":-6,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.32,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:40.449Z","v":3,"id":"3ec60145-9aaf-4833-a83b-c2f933e2820a","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7410834289702481,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":30,"church":41,"people":73,"treasury":21},"blend":0.3564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:40.449Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.38,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.78,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.61,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.17,"3":0.69,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:40.620Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-15"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+2","people":"+9","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":41,"church":38,"people":63,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.51,"people":1.06,"treasury":0.78},"right":{"army":1.04,"church":2.13,"people":2.73,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:42.451Z","v":3,"id":"49ad27ae-7efe-400c-a900-d7ff96dc032c","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1999586893595371,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":29,"church":34,"people":65,"treasury":10},"blend":0.3628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:42.451Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":73,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.14,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.57,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.64,"2":0.18,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.71,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:42.643Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":73,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":30,"church":41,"people":73,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.33,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.12,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:44.460Z","v":3,"id":"9687f03a-76e5-4e62-b1a3-a5c3f870619b","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.8898821385970257,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.83,"year":12,"after":{"army":24,"church":33,"people":65,"treasury":5},"blend":0.4588,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:44.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.43,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.44,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.54,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.56,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.32,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:44.615Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":29,"church":34,"people":65,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.64,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":1.87,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2718,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:46.452Z","v":3,"id":"208be16d-77a7-4035-bcbc-5ddbc05d732a","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.16908013621209816,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.91,"year":13,"after":{"army":22,"church":26,"people":55,"treasury":0},"blend":0.8908,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:46.452Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":5},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.42,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.54,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.74,"2":0.08,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.21,"2":0.39,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.46,"2":0.31,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.41,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:46.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"03f85bf9-0631-4295-b6ed-70803e2ee45e","before":{"army":24,"church":33,"people":65,"treasury":5},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.36,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.03,"church":1.72,"people":2.1,"treasury":0.43}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":-19}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:48.459Z","v":3,"id":"7875db69-c051-4c32-abe7-2064f6fcc38b","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.9011273049046125,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":58,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":48},"blend":0.7625,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:48.459Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.41,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.39,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.12,"3":0.47,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:48.640Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":1.84,"people":1.81,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":2.56,"church":1.91,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":8,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":7,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:50.450Z","v":3,"id":"4908c86d-51a3-44f0-a1da-1e573bbdd6e0","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4708729609444129,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.76,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5396,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:50.450Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.67,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.13,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":273},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:50.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":58,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.44,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.86,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":273},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:52.468Z","v":3,"id":"d3f2346e-d80a-487c-b108-dc8c9ee9edab","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.5082410705058398,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.88,"year":3,"after":{"army":49,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9032,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:52.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.22,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.24,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.15,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.08,"3":0.51,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.27,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:52.675Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-2","church":"+11","people":"+5","treasury":"+3"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":50,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":2.9,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.25},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.68,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":12,"people":6,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.465Z","v":3,"id":"1210aa0d-bf09-4cae-9743-c57e5dc06d99","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.07034574848768105,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.74,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":50,"people":32,"treasury":48},"blend":0.5428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.465Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.32,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.39,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.39,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.593Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":44,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":316}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":49,"church":56,"people":44,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.4,"people":0.9,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.34,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":316,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.585Z","v":3,"id":"23a8da24-fa3a-4d89-ab5f-1b46dd86b6e7","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.511849769898431,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.06,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":61},"blend":0.105,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.585Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1881,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.49,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.85,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:54.749Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"+10"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e557f87-c035-4800-b404-869e7b94c4fb","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.94,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.95,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.87}},"tokens":2567,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":10}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.57}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:56.467Z","v":3,"id":"01253419-6199-4874-af96-7ab5c17bdcb1","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.00424141442457282,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":36,"church":46,"people":20,"treasury":55},"blend":0.7144999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:56.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":32,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.85,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.58,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.92,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.11,"3":0.75,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.04,"3":0.6,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:56.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":32,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-9"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":232}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":47,"church":50,"people":32,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.59,"people":0.93,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.97,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":232,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:55:58.470Z","v":3,"id":"c32e19fa-84d5-4064-8cc3-83651bf8fe18","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.217098082209513,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":40,"people":2,"treasury":66},"blend":0.71,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:58.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.5,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.45,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.66,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.25,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0.73,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:55:58.683Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+1","church":"-7","people":"-19","treasury":"+10"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":36,"church":46,"people":20,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":1.43,"people":0.45,"treasury":2.85},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.99,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-6,"people":-18,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:00.455Z","v":3,"id":"119274b6-edba-4ef8-bf19-1b63590322de","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.29},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.34191124187998234,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.8,"year":7,"after":{"army":35,"church":24,"people":0,"treasury":58},"blend":0.568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:00.455Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":2,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.5,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.44,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.83,"1":0.16,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.55,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.41,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.45,"2":0.08,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:00.616Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":2,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-4","church":"-17","people":"-22","treasury":"-9"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"41b076a4-1172-456c-8be6-a95a4edaa036","before":{"army":38,"church":40,"people":2,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":0.59,"people":0.17,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.13,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-16,"people":-21,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-17,"people":-22,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:02.453Z","v":3,"id":"88430b34-2851-4abc-8b08-fb93eed951b3","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.64199852430909,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.81,"year":1,"after":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":52},"blend":0.2017,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:02.453Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.82,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.91,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.69,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:02.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.76,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2.09,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:04.460Z","v":3,"id":"5367523b-32d8-4c17-ba42-10910f4407e2","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8138043418717993,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.01,"year":2,"after":{"army":57,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":54},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:04.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.7,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.73,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":282},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:04.742Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.86,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.27,"church":2.04,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":4,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":282},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:06.468Z","v":3,"id":"2c4d1ab7-a15e-43fb-9de4-6ee0392a6142","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.24007347667468393,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":57,"church":47,"people":53,"treasury":53},"blend":0.2653,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:06.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":57,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:06.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":57,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":57,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.44,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.45,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:08.468Z","v":3,"id":"15c54d6b-a17d-44ab-b77a-caeaeff64f37","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.37009032984181767,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.17,"year":4,"after":{"army":59,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":60},"blend":0.0673,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:08.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.52,"3":0.47,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:08.675Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":119}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":57,"church":47,"people":53,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.92,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.03,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":119,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:10.464Z","v":3,"id":"ccbdc6cb-a0b2-4a30-9c23-237639fd017e","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.36015012859153095,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.84,"year":5,"after":{"army":60,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":62},"blend":0.20009999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:10.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":122},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:10.585Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":59,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.89,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":122},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:12.464Z","v":3,"id":"32282596-a597-419f-8ec4-8271733600df","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7630507656644723,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":59,"church":50,"people":58,"treasury":62},"blend":0.20789999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:12.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:12.649Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":60,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.96,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:14.466Z","v":3,"id":"633d3ac2-7ebb-40b2-9e7d-96810b0f34a2","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.06164843620713145,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.95,"year":7,"after":{"army":46,"church":36,"people":40,"treasury":50},"blend":0.22319999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:14.466Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":58,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.59,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.44,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.67,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.31,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.81,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:14.685Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":58,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-15","people":"-19","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:16.467Z","v":3,"id":"3c95a66f-67e9-4aa1-8c8e-30cdadadeb97","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1925680627232329,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.01,"year":8,"after":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":43,"treasury":55},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:16.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.73,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.2,"3":0.25,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.63,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:16.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":46,"church":36,"people":40,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.71,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.03,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:18.457Z","v":3,"id":"b9605d4d-a18b-432d-84ad-59215e195d72","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4821764556325483,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.14,"year":9,"after":{"army":43,"church":38,"people":45,"treasury":51},"blend":0.053099999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:18.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":43,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.1,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.67,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:18.658Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":43,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.25,"church":1.15,"people":0.87,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.46,"church":1.96,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:20.455Z","v":3,"id":"ff7fc252-5c97-4af5-9a43-4f682dc789e3","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.20157760089474075,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.02,"year":10,"after":{"army":44,"church":39,"people":46,"treasury":52},"blend":0.02,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:20.455Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.86,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:20.594Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":43,"church":38,"people":45,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.93,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2580,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:22.460Z","v":3,"id":"5df50863-b516-4179-9664-508a9e89d087","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.20675784168142952,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":42,"church":38,"people":38,"treasury":41},"blend":0.23159999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:22.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.28,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.61,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.93,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.35,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:22.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":44,"church":39,"people":46,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.85,"people":1.28,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.5,"church":1.83,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:24.454Z","v":3,"id":"0feaa30f-1e0d-41fe-a6cd-d71f7f55b3d5","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.17366566276515916,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.17,"year":12,"after":{"army":45,"church":40,"people":44,"treasury":50},"blend":0.0436,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:24.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":38,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.81,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.55,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.7,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:24.643Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":38,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-15"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":42,"church":38,"people":38,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.66,"people":1.21,"treasury":0.71},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2.07,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:26.453Z","v":3,"id":"20fb571c-318e-4a3f-9f58-4b2d01040e85","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.3395464785713105,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.02,"year":13,"after":{"army":47,"church":43,"people":45,"treasury":52},"blend":0.027899999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:26.453Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":44,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.86,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.32,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.74,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.88,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:26.631Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":44,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":45,"church":40,"people":44,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":1.49,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.14,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:28.469Z","v":3,"id":"54d2d7a7-44ae-4feb-b01e-5cab8620c3c5","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2556616346899565,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":44,"treasury":52},"blend":0.21579999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:28.469Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":45,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.22,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.28,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.52,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:28.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":45,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+3","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":47,"church":43,"people":45,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.79,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.29,"church":1.79,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":3,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:30.470Z","v":3,"id":"57e09fce-4dcd-43d9-a066-8083c07af15f","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.4618343569550514,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":42,"treasury":50},"blend":0.9842,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:30.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":44,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.58,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.45,"2":0.44,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:30.629Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":44,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":44,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.94,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.85,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:32.460Z","v":3,"id":"f91411bb-b4d8-456e-87cc-c270488a43f1","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.41801301962403903,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.98,"year":16,"after":{"army":53,"church":40,"people":41,"treasury":47},"blend":0.22159999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:32.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":42,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.14,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.29,"3":0.41000000000000003,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.63,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:32.663Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":42,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":42,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.98,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.83,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:34.474Z","v":3,"id":"3e8dc8c0-1349-4184-a41b-582045c7619a","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.5315246084534366,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.07,"year":17,"after":{"army":54,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":44},"blend":0.7099000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:34.474Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":41,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.6,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.4,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:34.667Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":41,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":250}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":53,"church":40,"people":41,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.34,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.55,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":250,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:36.476Z","v":3,"id":"84bf8968-7f61-40ad-9890-66a415a61175","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.07279550363058607,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.86,"year":18,"after":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":47,"treasury":50},"blend":0.20429999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:36.476Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":54,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.07,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:36.717Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":54,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":54,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.88,"people":1.36,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.97,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":241},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:38.479Z","v":3,"id":"7e719880-fdcb-433d-bd9a-8a992cbe5a3f","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.2949291249741619,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.5,"year":19,"after":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":42},"blend":0.2946,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:38.479Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":47,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.62,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.97,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.14,"3":0.83,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.89,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:38.634Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":47,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":47,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.74,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.91},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.05,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.52}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:40.480Z","v":3,"id":"4ec6a273-69b1-4ee8-be93-2d3dc27c6c5a","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.023879095559298014,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":20,"after":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":46,"treasury":32},"blend":0.21159999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:40.480Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.74,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.42,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.73,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.71,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.68,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:40.624Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.43,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.98,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:42.478Z","v":3,"id":"bfc606c7-87cc-4eab-84e5-547744e7fbad","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9514949014583511,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.24,"year":21,"after":{"army":35,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":38},"blend":0.05829999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:42.478Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":46,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.4,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:42.645Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":46,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"+3","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":46,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.27,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.81,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":3,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:44.480Z","v":3,"id":"3ba95962-3659-4cea-bb20-da8444257bbd","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9907542505165108,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0,"year":22,"after":{"army":37,"church":42,"people":51,"treasury":43},"blend":0.0079,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:44.480Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":48,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.82,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.75,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:44.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":48,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":35,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.81,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.06,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:46.482Z","v":3,"id":"f5504287-e0be-4f1d-8129-891b4b26bec0","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.874879457898998,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":1,"year":23,"after":{"army":40,"church":44,"people":53,"treasury":44},"blend":0.9763,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:46.482Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.82,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:46.636Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":37,"church":42,"people":51,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":2.07,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.83,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:48.469Z","v":3,"id":"d8b03902-faa1-4950-a486-0968986e2f83","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6684822484307753,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.98,"year":24,"after":{"army":38,"church":44,"people":63,"treasury":40},"blend":0.26899999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:48.469Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.12,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":265},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:48.734Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":40,"church":44,"people":53,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.7,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.9,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":265},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:50.467Z","v":3,"id":"b3f0fef4-8f77-4c0b-aa34-fad418ec8e6e","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7278418310640078,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":25,"after":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":72,"treasury":41},"blend":0.21949999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:50.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":63,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.32,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.62,"2":0.15,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.4,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:50.669Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":63,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-6"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":38,"church":44,"people":63,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.44,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.36,"people":2.7,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:52.485Z","v":3,"id":"ac4563a4-6d8a-4ddf-ab35-d0358b04e056","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.02049888125670085,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.11,"year":26,"after":{"army":30,"church":44,"people":64,"treasury":34},"blend":0.0389,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:52.485Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":72,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.5,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.6,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.3,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:52.708Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":72,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":72,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.49,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.46,"church":2.38,"people":2.66,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":6,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:54.470Z","v":3,"id":"d7aa652b-4c94-4af1-b00c-0ef4283e9c3d","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.905838888389416,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":1,"year":27,"after":{"army":28,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":35},"blend":0.21789999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:54.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":64,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.6,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":250},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:54.720Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":64,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-12","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":30,"church":44,"people":64,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.09,"people":0.97,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.04,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":250},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:56.472Z","v":3,"id":"835426c0-063a-43d9-bc17-4eb3f4a59560","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.005927668590487878,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.93,"year":28,"after":{"army":24,"church":35,"people":54,"treasury":23},"blend":0.20319999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:56.472Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":68,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.27,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.77,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.43,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.51,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:56.649Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":68,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":28,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.06,"people":0.72,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.13,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:56:58.470Z","v":3,"id":"4d6f865a-7788-4948-ac7a-3fb20226e5d2","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.9222694684155948,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.32,"year":29,"after":{"army":19,"church":36,"people":55,"treasury":29},"blend":0.2568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:58.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":54,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.42,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.3,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.49,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.42,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:56:58.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":54,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+5"},"Take the pass":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":24,"church":35,"people":54,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.86,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.97,"people":1.97,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.36,"prudenceConfidence":0.52}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:00.470Z","v":3,"id":"7511d2b2-5bdc-41bb-aae8-66438665b3b0","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.02758156255413935,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.89,"year":30,"after":{"army":8,"church":29,"people":36,"treasury":18},"blend":0.18689999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:00.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.65,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.47,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.87,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:00.712Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-12","church":"-8","people":"-20","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":247}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":19,"church":36,"people":55,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.34,"people":0.34,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":2.27,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":247,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:02.487Z","v":3,"id":"66c3b367-ff0f-4dbd-8ec2-1457e5a3b292","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6333353860327324,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.03,"year":31,"after":{"army":8,"church":29,"people":35,"treasury":23},"blend":0.006299999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:02.487Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.7,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.54,"2":0.25,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.76,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:02.666Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-13","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-14"},"Turn him away":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":8,"church":29,"people":36,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.89,"church":1.73,"people":1.28,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.93,"people":1.87,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2702,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:04.475Z","v":3,"id":"ad1ca946-2196-47c6-9d1c-1dbfaad69d00","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.1478354339288399,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.96,"year":32,"after":{"army":6,"church":29,"people":34,"treasury":24},"blend":0.9837,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:04.475Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:06.472Z","v":3,"id":"80a7733a-735c-4cd1-95f3-cebf500826ea","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8853294129339606,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.08,"year":33,"after":{"army":7,"church":32,"people":39,"treasury":33},"blend":0.0168,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:06.472Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.71,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.9,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.31,"3":0.66,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:06.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":6,"church":29,"people":34,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.43,"people":1.14,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.15,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2709,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:08.471Z","v":3,"id":"49009c7f-f283-40b0-8a82-e64890a66ede","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.349622800475085,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.77,"year":34,"after":{"army":3,"church":32,"people":38,"treasury":36},"blend":0.9279999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:08.471Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.66,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:08.637Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+2"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":724,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":7,"church":32,"people":39,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.92,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.18},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":1.89,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:10.473Z","v":3,"id":"44e98715-5259-44da-b20c-7124b294f549","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.12391729867753454,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.15,"year":35,"after":{"army":3,"church":36,"people":50,"treasury":30},"blend":0.03939999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:10.473Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.38,"2":0.44,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.38,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.04,"3":0.64,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:10.710Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-6","church":"-7","people":"-19","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":3,"church":32,"people":38,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.39,"people":0.39,"treasury":2.49},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.23,"people":2.88,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:12.477Z","v":3,"id":"b4148ebf-2703-42db-a321-a7700a0c1192","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5992172804535927,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.84,"year":36,"after":{"army":1,"church":38,"people":60,"treasury":20},"blend":0.19219999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:12.477Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.48,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.04,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:12.656Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":3,"church":36,"people":50,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.64,"people":0.89,"treasury":2.21},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.09,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2740,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:14.478Z","v":3,"id":"1e4f14cd-6812-45fd-997a-4b526c2d4c97","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7359220062979246,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.64,"year":37,"after":{"army":2,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":14},"blend":0.1344,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:14.478Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.37,"2":0.12,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.45,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.49,"2":0.32,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.54,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.51,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.34,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:14.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-14","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"-14"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":1,"church":38,"people":60,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.83,"church":1.52,"people":1.42,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.02,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.44}},"tokens":2717,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:16.497Z","v":3,"id":"cf6a5dac-bb17-4426-8851-e992bb76455c","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.579493247602997,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.93,"year":38,"after":{"army":0,"church":40,"people":66,"treasury":12},"blend":0.21109999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:16.497Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.4,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.5,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.47,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.63,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.22,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.56,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:16.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Sigrun III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-18","church":"-7","people":"-17","treasury":"-21"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1da009c-459d-4b80-b66e-66c40b7f6fc2","before":{"army":2,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.53,"church":1.4,"people":0.58,"treasury":0.25},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":2,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2719,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-7,"people":-17,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:24.931Z","v":3,"id":"f3c0f4db-8296-4c1b-b6ae-e328efcd168a","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4392707140772649,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":38},"blend":0.6831999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:24.931Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.21,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.64,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.85,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.75,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.85,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":389},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:25.320Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":344}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.4,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.03,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":344,"forecast":389},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:26.933Z","v":3,"id":"60516cbf-e9c7-427a-a21c-bdb8a3ab696d","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.3414679887105907,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.57,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":39},"blend":0.44839999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:26.933Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.75,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:27.162Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":46,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.58,"people":1.4,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.18,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:28.937Z","v":3,"id":"30b64d71-7eef-4ef4-8eaf-d4776827b6de","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.904515832924883,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.04,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":33,"treasury":38},"blend":0.0304,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:28.937Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":32,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:29.116Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.93,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.92,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:31.031Z","v":3,"id":"cee884b9-3447-4bbc-a72e-ffd2a40090f2","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7993010862165661,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":39,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6763999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:31.031Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.18,"3":0.41,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.77,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.79,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.79,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.56,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.86,"1":0.14,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:31.188Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"0","church":"-12","people":"-14","treasury":"-22"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":33,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.13,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:32.936Z","v":3,"id":"46e61bae-5b6c-42f9-a55f-2e626ac10e63","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.71814937739704,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.76,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":41,"people":36,"treasury":42},"blend":0.6447999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:32.936Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":39,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:33.127Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:34.965Z","v":3,"id":"52924dbc-3c77-412d-b4fb-9a3bf899e0e1","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.8979527496964823,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.07,"year":6,"after":{"army":45,"church":39,"people":31,"treasury":37},"blend":0.358,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:34.965Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":36,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":232}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":45,"church":41,"people":36,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.84,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.79,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":232,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:36.938Z","v":3,"id":"994a187b-9ef8-4bb7-adff-9b216e013ed3","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.04091195401546743,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":29,"people":21,"treasury":27},"blend":0.6831999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:36.938Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":31,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.4,"2":0.15,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.61,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.69,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.7,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:37.140Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":31,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":45,"church":39,"people":31,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.05,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.13,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:38.954Z","v":3,"id":"34520a83-eb4d-460f-bd63-2531de43c8f9","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5354891300897331,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":47,"church":22,"people":10,"treasury":17},"blend":0.6896,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:38.954Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":21,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.37,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.56,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.65,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.16,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.78,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.19,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:39.140Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":21,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":44,"church":29,"people":21,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.37,"people":1,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.01,"church":2.2,"people":2.66,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:40.941Z","v":3,"id":"c23a2c0e-30cc-49a9-bd3b-6ba95fa91a73","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.769611868268707,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":41,"church":23,"people":13,"treasury":19},"blend":0.6799999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:40.941Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.51,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.38,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.66,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.69,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":317},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:41.258Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-7","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":47,"church":22,"people":10,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.25,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.29},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.99,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2739,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":317},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:42.956Z","v":3,"id":"40549736-eb08-43be-bd65-a01be9188532","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.09372024048697924,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":39,"church":8,"people":0,"treasury":0},"blend":0.6863999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:42.956Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Radulf II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.42,"2":0.07,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.32,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.55,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.31,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.52,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.84,"1":0.16,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.57,"2":0.33,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:43.103Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Radulf II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-3","church":"-16","people":"-20","treasury":"-22"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f254078b-d856-499d-874e-a0212799154a","before":{"army":41,"church":23,"people":13,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":0.63,"people":0.32,"treasury":0.17},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":1.82,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-15,"people":-19,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-16,"people":-20,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:44.943Z","v":3,"id":"48be93d5-a3dd-4dcb-90b2-bc3c7a7581a2","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.44,"mock":false,"roll":0.8204350995282965,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":36,"people":51,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5464,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:44.943Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.35000000000000003,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.05,"3":0.72,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.38,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.51,"2":0.03,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.29,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.5,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":231},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:45.175Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+11","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-15","people":"0","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.9,"people":1.58,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":0.73,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-14,"people":1,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":231},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":11,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-15,"people":0,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.12}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:46.943Z","v":3,"id":"d5744dc8-7f90-4ae3-805f-9a5555e4424a","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2973665505937313,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.44,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":40,"people":51,"treasury":45},"blend":0.09979999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:46.943Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.59,"2":0.22,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.51,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:47.103Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":50,"church":36,"people":51,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.45,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.25,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2645,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:48.944Z","v":3,"id":"48e356b0-28b7-4304-a0e9-addd0a04e601","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6855730186457427,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0,"year":3,"after":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":39},"blend":0.048600000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:48.944Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":51,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.62,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.18,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.61,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.26,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:49.116Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":51,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-6","church":"-16","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"0","church":"+10","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":51,"church":40,"people":51,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":0.67,"people":1.34,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.8,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":1,"church":11,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-16,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:50.948Z","v":3,"id":"4fd52d5d-cf44-4f31-bdde-9b004d6a4ef9","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.6338679739837569,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.06,"year":4,"after":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":49},"blend":0.18960000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:50.948Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.42,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.85,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.59,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.15,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:51.159Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.19,"church":1.88,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":1.06,"church":2.18,"people":2.7,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-11,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:52.947Z","v":3,"id":"3805df32-3fcd-414a-b478-96635aba884b","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7340825452271162,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.95,"year":5,"after":{"army":42,"church":51,"people":68,"treasury":58},"blend":0.19669999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:52.947Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.71,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.62,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.63,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.41,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.38,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.28,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:53.147Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-10","church":"+8","people":"-12","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.68,"people":1,"treasury":0.58},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.69,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:54.958Z","v":3,"id":"44ba5637-7ab7-4341-abc3-01324dba346c","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.7198564567978651,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.82,"year":6,"after":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":78,"treasury":55},"blend":0.21249999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:54.958Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":68,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.71,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.38,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.45,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.12,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.12,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.45,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:55.155Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":68,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-5","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-11","church":"0","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":42,"church":51,"people":68,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":2,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.61,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2647,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-4,"people":10,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:56.963Z","v":3,"id":"653a30b0-ed31-4998-a606-61f89a1ec67c","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.3660934409637904,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.57,"year":7,"after":{"army":50,"church":44,"people":74,"treasury":50},"blend":0.35129999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:56.963Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":78,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.22,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.46,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.38,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.45,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.37,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:57.110Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":78,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+6","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-11","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:57:58.949Z","v":3,"id":"f8ccd3f7-048e-4d6c-af2c-c878b565da5c","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.5898567973352438,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.27,"year":8,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":77,"treasury":44},"blend":0.1323,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:57:58.949Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:00.968Z","v":3,"id":"e7741cd0-d0aa-48af-ad01-90d63dc6d51c","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.7094896431552786,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.96,"year":9,"after":{"army":53,"church":49,"people":78,"treasury":48},"blend":0.24719999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:00.968Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":77,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":2.14,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.89,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":2,"people":-4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:02.954Z","v":3,"id":"33345911-f306-4c1e-be34-3a3952fba08c","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.506990747256979,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.14,"year":10,"after":{"army":55,"church":54,"people":90,"treasury":46},"blend":0.0428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:02.954Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":78,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.47,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.7,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.6,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.86,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.63,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.29,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:03.211Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":78,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":292}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":53,"church":49,"people":78,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.39,"people":0.87,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.31,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":292,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:04.957Z","v":3,"id":"c6960097-25bb-4030-b9bf-fa1e1472a64c","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9102107125376198,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":48,"church":66,"people":76,"treasury":30},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:04.957Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.28,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.13,"2":0.03,"3":0.44,"4":0.35}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.66,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.27,"3":0.56,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.29,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:05.150Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-8","church":"+11","people":"-15","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":55,"church":54,"people":90,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":2.93,"people":0.79,"treasury":0.59},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.27,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":12,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":11,"people":-15,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:06.956Z","v":3,"id":"cf71bdaa-a523-4a0c-ab1b-2eb046083bf6","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.411279321415539,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.93,"year":12,"after":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":84,"treasury":25},"blend":0.29819999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:06.956Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":76,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.07,"3":0.5,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.96,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.27,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.34,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.04,"3":0.82,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:07.143Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":76,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"-12","treasury":"+10"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":48,"church":66,"people":76,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":2.21,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.81},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.67,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":7,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:08.965Z","v":3,"id":"f2599a32-e3f1-4583-b1a9-2e6146d4eff4","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.42528831054729,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":28,"church":74,"people":80,"treasury":35},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:08.965Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.12,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.38,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.03,"3":0.6,"4":0.22}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.46,"2":0.14,"3":0.25,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.74,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.43,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.14,"3":0.72,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.56,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:09.133Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+10","people":"-5","treasury":"+9"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":84,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.23,"church":2.84,"people":1.62,"treasury":2.72},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.2,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2736,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":11,"people":-4,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":10,"people":-5,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:10.956Z","v":3,"id":"ff6975bc-c2d4-46ae-b438-e928181199c7","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.636970359145069,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.08,"year":14,"after":{"army":24,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":34},"blend":0.8252,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:10.956Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.52,"2":0.15,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.45,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.56,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.31,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.39,"2":0.13,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:11.146Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":28,"church":74,"people":80,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.23,"people":0.51,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.15,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:12.952Z","v":3,"id":"4c503cdf-5b8f-4ca1-b591-118fbe176cbf","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8598229977414424,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.1,"year":15,"after":{"army":26,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0433,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:12.952Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.36,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.5,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.2,"3":0.78,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:13.126Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":725,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":24,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.72,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.31,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.74}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:14.979Z","v":3,"id":"c25393a9-ca73-47ef-ae76-4a290b90ead6","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.16021541788176163,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.56,"year":16,"after":{"army":27,"church":74,"people":79,"treasury":42},"blend":0.8273,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:14.979Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.88,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.73,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.42,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:15.192Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":26,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.17,"people":2.57,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.85,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:16.971Z","v":3,"id":"4274101a-ec31-4717-812f-1ffac3c0e0a3","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.6805525250501228,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":23,"church":66,"people":79,"treasury":43},"blend":0.27719999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:16.971Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":79,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.31,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.06,"3":0.7,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.7,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.45,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.1,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.24,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:17.211Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":79,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-5","church":"+8","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":27,"church":74,"people":79,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":2.7,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.21,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:18.975Z","v":3,"id":"866716d7-e421-4727-b7af-b5e2ed6280cd","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7162498461097313,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.89,"year":18,"after":{"army":19,"church":66,"people":77,"treasury":41},"blend":0.18529999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:18.975Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":79,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.25,"3":0.36,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.52,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.68,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:19.136Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":79,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":23,"church":66,"people":79,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2.02,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.9,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:20.963Z","v":3,"id":"8f3a02b5-07dd-4d6e-9c75-4bc071e10898","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7610864470226912,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.19,"year":19,"after":{"army":14,"church":68,"people":86,"treasury":30},"blend":0.060399999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:20.963Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.22,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.59,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.08,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.39,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":245},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:21.208Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"+4"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":19,"church":66,"people":77,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.72,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.35},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":2.07,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":245},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:22.971Z","v":3,"id":"54a7ca19-caf9-43d5-bf66-5bee1582af14","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.29851785017167254,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":9,"church":57,"people":85,"treasury":21},"blend":0.21429999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:22.971Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1974,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.91,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.26,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.9,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.29,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:23.126Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-6","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-6","church":"-12","people":"-2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":795,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":14,"church":68,"people":86,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":2.91,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":0.99,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2769,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-1,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-12,"people":-2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:24.959Z","v":3,"id":"8ae17e7c-3f56-45ef-a927-88d6360b78b5","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.77,"mock":false,"roll":0.10664517709025478,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.06,"year":21,"after":{"army":4,"church":48,"people":70,"treasury":8},"blend":0.6351,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:24.959Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.67,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.56,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.71,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.54,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:25.177Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":782,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":9,"church":57,"people":85,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.19,"people":0.7,"treasury":0.81},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.24,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2736,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-16,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:26.976Z","v":3,"id":"7145f359-776c-48fc-ad0e-2d70bff1d550","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.57,"mock":false,"roll":0.4269758734896152,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":0,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":0},"blend":0.6517,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:26.976Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.33,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.05,"3":0.65,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.7,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.56,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.33,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:27.141Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"0","treasury":"-2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-5","church":"+5","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":782,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e78b1fa4-ea4a-422f-af8f-05b9f570121f","before":{"army":4,"church":48,"people":70,"treasury":8},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":2.39,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.24,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2748,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:28.973Z","v":3,"id":"b34ca81f-f353-457d-8006-d572e6ff120e","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5884239601647512,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":48},"blend":0.17820000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:28.973Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.53,"2":0.3,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:29.120Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-8"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.52,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":1.87,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:30.981Z","v":3,"id":"333dc5f9-8172-4bc9-a4e2-666185529ab5","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.08397405861914375,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.71,"year":2,"after":{"army":40,"church":48,"people":42,"treasury":40},"blend":0.136,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:30.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.62,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.76,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:31.177Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.84,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:32.965Z","v":3,"id":"9fd378b1-5d00-4785-a668-39b82b0b01d0","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.006256402600953059,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":33,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":23},"blend":0.21280000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:32.965Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":42,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.63,"2":0.09,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.36,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.08,"3":0.55,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.17,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.38,"3":0.61,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":364},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:33.329Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":42,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-8","church":"+4","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":40,"church":48,"people":42,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":2.37,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.49},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":1.43,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.59}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":5,"people":-12,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":364},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":4,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:34.973Z","v":3,"id":"4b9f12db-da91-4afb-bc24-97f175edcf7d","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.42826813146467235,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":29,"church":54,"people":36,"treasury":24},"blend":0.19640000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:34.973Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.24,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.45,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.87,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:35.165Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"+1","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":33,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":1.49,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":2.04,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:36.967Z","v":3,"id":"aab47ca2-0336-418c-99f8-09231dfc185a","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.37283184532340075,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.05,"year":5,"after":{"army":31,"church":55,"people":38,"treasury":25},"blend":0.0172,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:36.967Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":36,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.75,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:37.138Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":36,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":29,"church":54,"people":36,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.93,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.98,"people":2.11,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:38.965Z","v":3,"id":"172a1cea-ff3f-4125-827f-43d2345705bb","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.4574972725486175,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.52,"year":6,"after":{"army":30,"church":58,"people":51,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8972,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:38.965Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":38,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.5,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.62,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.33,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.29,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:39.103Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":38,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"+1"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":31,"church":55,"people":38,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.2,"people":3,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.51,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:40.965Z","v":3,"id":"111ec122-0e7f-4ca3-b6e6-7268e5e61f91","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.39423695882534093,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":28,"church":60,"people":53,"treasury":33},"blend":0.19640000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:40.965Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":51,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.51,"2":0.17,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.3,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.63,"2":0.24,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.54,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.45,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:41.131Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":51,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":30,"church":58,"people":51,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.59,"people":1.25,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":2.05,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:42.983Z","v":3,"id":"9741767b-e13c-4c9a-934f-1ece5f514e9d","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.29419891286427635,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.99,"year":8,"after":{"army":26,"church":61,"people":57,"treasury":39},"blend":0.18640000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:42.983Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":53,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.67,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.86,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.72,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:43.141Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":53,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-14","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":28,"church":60,"people":53,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.86,"church":1.37,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.63},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.03,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:44.977Z","v":3,"id":"dca1f9d9-7a40-4cbc-9bc3-06d4aaec426b","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1681174061768751,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.49,"year":9,"after":{"army":28,"church":62,"people":61,"treasury":46},"blend":0.09640000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:44.977Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":57,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.82,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.46,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:45.128Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":57,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":26,"church":61,"people":57,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.82,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.01,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:46.981Z","v":3,"id":"39a7766d-e094-430f-b8b1-eeffc24dda6a","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.33005394980042224,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":29,"church":64,"people":65,"treasury":45},"blend":0.19460000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:46.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":61,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.13,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.62,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.67,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":125},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:47.106Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":61,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-13"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":28,"church":62,"people":61,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.52,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.05,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":125},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:48.981Z","v":3,"id":"c85e9b79-43dc-4d88-83ae-932200e9e7f5","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.28127947052057056,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":22,"church":65,"people":66,"treasury":41},"blend":0.21280000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:48.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":65,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.05,"3":0.64,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.24,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:49.163Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":65,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+5","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-15"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":29,"church":64,"people":65,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.42,"church":1.14,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.77},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":2.02,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:50.993Z","v":3,"id":"f3365bb7-db83-400c-b27d-22a57ba00e3e","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.16534438271543372,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.99,"year":12,"after":{"army":13,"church":51,"people":53,"treasury":30},"blend":0.19460000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:50.993Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":66,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.62,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:51.143Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":66,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-10","church":"-15","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:52.981Z","v":3,"id":"d796d678-47ed-4a2a-b6e9-29182918db55","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4957289829576801,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":14,"church":59,"people":59,"treasury":20},"blend":0.18000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:52.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.39,"2":0.05,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.51,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.68,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.56,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.27,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.48,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:53.216Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-15","church":"-11","people":"-17","treasury":"-17"},"Send grain":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":13,"church":51,"people":53,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.75,"church":1.06,"people":0.62,"treasury":0.58},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.56,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-11,"people":-17,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:54.974Z","v":3,"id":"9ddf7945-5ed7-4763-83f1-cb2801e52bc6","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8866574420968296,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.94,"year":14,"after":{"army":14,"church":59,"people":59,"treasury":16},"blend":0.20200000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:54.974Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1965,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.8,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.49,"2":0.41,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.36,"2":0.04,"3":0.48,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:55.128Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":793,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":14,"church":59,"people":59,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.06,"church":1.74,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.95,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2758,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:56.982Z","v":3,"id":"8241d966-bb6e-40bf-bd36-aa19e2967e5b","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.22952683587556177,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.74,"year":15,"after":{"army":18,"church":66,"people":70,"treasury":16},"blend":0.13320000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:56.982Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.6,"2":0.15,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.24,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.41,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.55,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.56,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:57.152Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-8","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":781,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":14,"church":59,"people":59,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.29,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":2.53,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2737,"applied":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:58:58.984Z","v":3,"id":"1c9a884e-2b2f-4a12-a1bb-add9f64ba112","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.74,"mock":false,"roll":0.326167409901978,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.01,"year":16,"after":{"army":13,"church":64,"people":63,"treasury":2},"blend":0.6086,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:58.984Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.45,"2":0.4,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.47,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.28,"2":0.49,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.46,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.66,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.39999999999999997,"1":0.29,"2":0.13,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:58:59.180Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-13","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":18,"church":66,"people":70,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.75,"people":1.37,"treasury":0.72},"right":{"army":0.88,"church":1.47,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-13,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.49}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:00.982Z","v":3,"id":"4ccc52f2-7669-4464-81ae-b58b83edadc0","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8297172476697903,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":14,"church":65,"people":67,"treasury":0},"blend":0.17820000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:00.982Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.49,"2":0.1,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.56,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.5,"2":0.4,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.63,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.54,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.3,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.49,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:01.150Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa III sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-19"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e94c051d-f23e-473a-94ab-ced3e711d638","before":{"army":13,"church":64,"people":63,"treasury":2},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.39,"people":1.18,"treasury":0.45},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.04,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:02.984Z","v":3,"id":"7b9608db-ec79-45d9-ba3c-8d9c6342389c","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6070100437573323,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":41,"people":60,"treasury":48},"blend":0.23640000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:02.984Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.04,"3":0.7,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.1,"3":0.8,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:03.161Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"+9","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+8","people":"-13","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":2.64,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.16,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":8,"people":-13,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:04.984Z","v":3,"id":"abc46acc-793a-45e9-9647-a4b14ed25e05","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9859488742649598,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":45,"church":32,"people":69,"treasury":45},"blend":0.20320000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:04.984Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":60,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.41,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.26,"2":0.04,"3":0.56,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.82,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.07,"3":0.76,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.52,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.4,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:05.166Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":60,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-14","treasury":"-8"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":48,"church":41,"people":60,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":2.21,"people":0.8,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.14,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:06.974Z","v":3,"id":"1f6aca8f-7365-4bb3-8941-43c1b205df12","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8751799497001618,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.04,"year":3,"after":{"army":46,"church":36,"people":78,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0317,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:06.974Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":69,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.52,"2":0.23,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.57,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.22,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.18,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:07.182Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":69,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":45,"church":32,"people":69,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.54,"people":0.82,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.22,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:08.987Z","v":3,"id":"01884796-9ba5-43eb-bc5b-b6c2185ece04","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.737555817112632,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.33,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":37,"people":82,"treasury":49},"blend":0.07270000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:08.987Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":78,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.6,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.4,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.71,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.68,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:09.177Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":78,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":46,"church":36,"people":78,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.91,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:10.989Z","v":3,"id":"cb7c1149-3f57-4f38-ab9b-9cb6ec4dd381","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5449003985359555,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":46,"church":29,"people":65,"treasury":54},"blend":0.17660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:10.989Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.37,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.05,"2":0.05,"3":0.74,"4":0.09}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.6,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.38,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:11.121Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"+4"},"Return it":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":47,"church":37,"people":82,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":2.3,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.27,"people":0.51,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2702,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:12.988Z","v":3,"id":"9e60839b-8209-4147-addf-a18288709bf0","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8683929340332297,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.03,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":68,"treasury":56},"blend":0.0383,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:12.988Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":65,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.32,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:13.167Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":65,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-3","treasury":"-6"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+7","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":723,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":46,"church":29,"people":65,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.32,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.57,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":2,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:14.972Z","v":3,"id":"77a74309-05b6-468f-adcf-80d702b1e45f","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.0773454043022237,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":37,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":38},"blend":0.18980000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:14.972Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":68,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.7,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.59,"4":0.17}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.86,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.4,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.4,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.43,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.36,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":260},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:15.232Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":68,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-12","church":"+9","people":"-13","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":68,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":2.71,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.44},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.7,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":10,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":260},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":9,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:16.975Z","v":3,"id":"a9c45d80-05a9-4601-aa6a-159970ac7a83","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.7411140726105108,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.96,"year":8,"after":{"army":33,"church":45,"people":55,"treasury":42},"blend":0.23790000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:16.975Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.33,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.43,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:17.202Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":37,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.13,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.76,"people":1.8,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:18.972Z","v":3,"id":"fcb759d0-f8f4-4457-ac2c-2331094a5442","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.888241684571482,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.85,"year":9,"after":{"army":32,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":48},"blend":0.9413,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:18.972Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":55,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:19.115Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":55,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":33,"church":45,"people":55,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":2.15,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.82,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:20.972Z","v":3,"id":"3d8c000c-63d0-4f48-bc09-bbf49fdb3361","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5953210325618743,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.14,"year":10,"after":{"army":33,"church":52,"people":68,"treasury":49},"blend":0.03210000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:20.972Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.49,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.69,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.64,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.12,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.7,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.33,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:21.122Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"},"Fix it now":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":32,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.42,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.29,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:22.976Z","v":3,"id":"695efb58-214e-4442-8765-fcab10222acb","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.6395960863330217,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":35,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":57},"blend":0.24470000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:22.976Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":68,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":3.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.02,"3":0.68,"4":0.24}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.24,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.59,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.22,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:23.144Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":68,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-11","church":"+13","people":"-10","treasury":"-17"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"+2","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":727,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":33,"church":52,"people":68,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":3.09,"people":1.13,"treasury":0.6},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.05,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":13,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:24.989Z","v":3,"id":"75629950-9b8e-4505-a23e-d3077e6aa5c0","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2153539718038493,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.01,"year":12,"after":{"army":36,"church":44,"people":74,"treasury":61},"blend":0.0183,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:24.989Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":71,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.7,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.81,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.61,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.75,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:25.118Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":71,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-14","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":35,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.84,"church":1.39,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.68},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.09,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:26.990Z","v":3,"id":"b398ebec-9e7c-4023-b3a4-08322ea27938","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3850918961848748,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":37,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":63},"blend":0.18490000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:26.990Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":74,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.1,"3":0.7,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.67,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:27.223Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":74,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-10","church":"+8","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":36,"church":44,"people":74,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.67,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.6,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":8,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:28.975Z","v":3,"id":"6f61d294-cde0-414c-b9d1-f337d1417dc9","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.7846885460119355,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.43,"year":14,"after":{"army":33,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":61},"blend":0.1395,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:28.975Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.25,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.48,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.57,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:29.142Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":725,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":37,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":2.1,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.94,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2669,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:30.989Z","v":3,"id":"fc0578ea-6676-4482-b096-f384f831b0eb","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.01964338843245983,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.35,"year":15,"after":{"army":30,"church":49,"people":75,"treasury":56},"blend":0.101,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:30.989Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.29,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.57,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:31.167Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":78,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":238}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":33,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.7,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.19,"people":1.97,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2647,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":238,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:32.988Z","v":3,"id":"6084358e-385f-4e3b-a537-656147982806","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5703467577192793,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.04,"year":16,"after":{"army":26,"church":51,"people":77,"treasury":56},"blend":0.015100000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:32.988Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":75,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.16,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.62,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.79,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.69,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.59,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:33.156Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":75,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":30,"church":49,"people":75,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.37,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":2.12,"people":2.11,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:34.990Z","v":3,"id":"a08899ce-0d85-41f1-94c0-ac583911e9b9","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.9247068742929136,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":23,"church":45,"people":78,"treasury":59},"blend":0.4107,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:34.990Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.07,"3":0.75,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.64,"2":0.16,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.45,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.3,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:35.147Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+10","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"0","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":26,"church":51,"people":77,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":2.8,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.4,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":10,"people":-6,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.42}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:36.991Z","v":3,"id":"1f160b8a-9f9d-4733-a201-0963b424a9b1","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.00285416748485412,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":1,"year":18,"after":{"army":21,"church":54,"people":68,"treasury":57},"blend":0.30280000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:36.991Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":78,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.04,"3":0.73,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.39,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.4,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.51,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:37.239Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":78,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+8","people":"-11","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":23,"church":45,"people":78,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.65,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.2,"people":1.94,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2645,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":-10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":8,"people":-11,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:38.979Z","v":3,"id":"b3a1b788-e90d-42e8-9340-bc37930d973c","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8272732793316382,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.02,"year":19,"after":{"army":14,"church":55,"people":69,"treasury":53},"blend":0.0449,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:38.979Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":68,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.07,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.75,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.63,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.48,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:39.126Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":68,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+2","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-15"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":21,"church":54,"people":68,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.16,"church":1.13,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.32,"church":1.97,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:40.990Z","v":3,"id":"58d988d4-3d72-46e8-8a3b-e0393c308fda","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6530923057432265,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":14,"church":50,"people":79,"treasury":51},"blend":0.17000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:40.990Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.56,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.28,"2":0.02,"3":0.53,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.14,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.2,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.37,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:41.143Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-10","church":"+2","people":"-15","treasury":"-6"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"+9","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":14,"church":55,"people":69,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.2,"people":0.78,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.49,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":2,"people":-15,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:42.976Z","v":3,"id":"f3d9b027-3f41-4409-81fd-7990ac8e4c18","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9063422780983639,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.04,"year":21,"after":{"army":13,"church":54,"people":89,"treasury":46},"blend":0.006800000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:42.976Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.47,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.49,"2":0.21,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.48,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.46,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.2,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.06,"3":0.68,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:43.133Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-6"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-18","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":14,"church":50,"people":79,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.64,"people":0.48,"treasury":2.53},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.24,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-18,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:44.991Z","v":3,"id":"c3f811ef-fb89-49f7-bc51-6b67c586fdf1","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.6387658029289225,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.24,"year":22,"after":{"army":10,"church":53,"people":81,"treasury":53},"blend":0.8376,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:44.991Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.5,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.67,"4":0.07}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:45.150Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":13,"church":54,"people":89,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.84,"people":1.28,"treasury":2.5},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":2.08,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:46.977Z","v":3,"id":"46521ad2-6354-467b-b266-ca5f51f69433","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.8801326355029551,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.27,"year":23,"after":{"army":7,"church":54,"people":85,"treasury":60},"blend":0.6933,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:46.977Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.5,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.44,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.27,"2":0.45,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.71,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.4,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.78,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.36,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:47.113Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-13","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-14"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":10,"church":53,"people":81,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.88,"church":1.42,"people":1.13,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.97,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:48.995Z","v":3,"id":"b2d34366-0f2c-4ea2-9e66-730641f359ab","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.462035561245441,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.58,"year":24,"after":{"army":5,"church":54,"people":83,"treasury":60},"blend":0.18160000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:48.995Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.04,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.68,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:49.144Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"-6"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":7,"church":54,"people":85,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":2.19,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.91,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:50.992Z","v":3,"id":"ac4c0914-3fd5-4994-a2f2-366484b2a316","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Theobald III","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.36,"mock":false,"roll":0.5174145788817734,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":25,"after":{"army":0,"church":42,"people":84,"treasury":55},"blend":0.4688,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:50.992Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Theobald III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.63,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.44,"2":0.27,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.04,"3":0.79,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.4,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.65,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.2,"3":0.4,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":298},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:51.290Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Theobald III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+10","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"},"Stand":{"army":"-6","church":"-13","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":767,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"dad6c8bb-4b64-4965-aaca-57d2cf6e867a","before":{"army":5,"church":54,"people":83,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.84,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.05},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":0.94,"people":2,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":298},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":10,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-13,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.28}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:52.975Z","v":3,"id":"7677af80-c375-4779-ae42-f84507f66247","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.12251588018797333,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.95,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:52.975Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9299999999999999,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:53.161Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":246}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.63,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.09,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":246,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:54.986Z","v":3,"id":"8b63670d-82a7-4e45-88c3-0e4bda72254b","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5471656146910071,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.08,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":52},"blend":0.066,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:54.986Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:55.123Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.85,"people":1.99,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:56.994Z","v":3,"id":"eb741e85-531d-438d-beba-0dab1771387f","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.8404053768222173,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":58},"blend":0.9794999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:56.994Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1876,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.51,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:57.131Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":681,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":2.01,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.94,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2557,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T02:59:58.981Z","v":3,"id":"e623826e-c78e-4822-8d6b-8ebf864f1fc4","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5963679270871087,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":43,"treasury":57},"blend":0.657,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:58.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.94,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9299999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.8,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T02:59:59.151Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":50,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.79,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.05,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:00.987Z","v":3,"id":"d2ee23f0-5545-4169-a027-45e1973869d7","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.5329088903450794,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.33,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":53,"treasury":50},"blend":0.2775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:00.987Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":43,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.98,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.17,"3":0.8,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":277},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:01.265Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":43,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.03,"church":1.8,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.95},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.08,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":277},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:02.980Z","v":3,"id":"c03c44f6-9941-499f-b0f6-ed9091d043a7","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.346002373998451,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.8,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":50},"blend":0.8315,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:02.980Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":53,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.76,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.61,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.32,"3":0.65,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:03.143Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":53,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+7"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":53,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.77,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.81,"people":1.37,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:04.983Z","v":3,"id":"97ad6e7c-bf9a-4bd0-a20c-3d73514cfe7b","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6397638857466998,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":46,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:04.983Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.76,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.38,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:05.199Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.57,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.2,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:06.982Z","v":3,"id":"64da84f2-c701-42f3-8315-4f9c70f9eed9","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.16259954262283083,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.19,"year":8,"after":{"army":48,"church":34,"people":51,"treasury":54},"blend":0.14800000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:06.982Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":46,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.79,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.32,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.31,"3":0.66,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:07.179Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":46,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-6","church":"+10","people":"-10","treasury":"-15"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":46,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.84,"people":1.2,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.16,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":10,"people":-10,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:09.004Z","v":3,"id":"55839f18-e271-47a9-a9e9-31c5a134b892","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9337603326077946,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":35,"people":53,"treasury":55},"blend":0.6535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:09.004Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":51,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:09.152Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":51,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":48,"church":34,"people":51,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.88,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.02,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:11.004Z","v":3,"id":"6ce33c3c-5c56-4c29-bae0-0e6a42902b06","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.176357617396802,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.04,"year":10,"after":{"army":44,"church":36,"people":56,"treasury":52},"blend":0.029500000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:11.004Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.14,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.71,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:11.224Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"0","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-7","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":50,"church":35,"people":53,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.11,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.96,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:13.025Z","v":3,"id":"10e6d87a-d535-4795-9041-a52eb3536d90","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.03779253899764656,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.94,"year":11,"after":{"army":34,"church":23,"people":44,"treasury":73},"blend":0.6214999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:13.025Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":56,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.75,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.39,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.25,"4":0.71}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:13.151Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":56,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-14","people":"-13","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":44,"church":36,"people":56,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":0.81,"people":0.95,"treasury":3.65},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.58,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-13,"people":-12,"treasury":21},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":126},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-14,"people":-13,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:14.997Z","v":3,"id":"7c216944-7032-4ba7-b9ac-cc854b1bdc22","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.506604390789571,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.86,"year":12,"after":{"army":32,"church":20,"people":33,"treasury":79},"blend":0.5835,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:14.997Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":44,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.76,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:15.162Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":44,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+12","treasury":"-8"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":243}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":34,"church":23,"people":44,"treasury":73},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.7,"people":1.02,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.1,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":243,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:17.002Z","v":3,"id":"0500c231-e903-4620-90d3-4b5dab170c33","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8058241933289059,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0,"year":13,"after":{"army":33,"church":21,"people":38,"treasury":83},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:17.002Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.61,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.51,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.85,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.7,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.66,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:17.155Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-3","church":"-15","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":32,"church":20,"people":33,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":0.72,"people":0.92,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-15,"people":-13,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:18.997Z","v":3,"id":"2f9b10a9-10a4-43d1-84b8-9f97fa9c7bc4","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.23325603655417293,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.41,"year":14,"after":{"army":13,"church":28,"people":31,"treasury":90},"blend":0.277,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:18.997Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1961,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.16,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.59,"4":0.12}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.54,"2":0.14,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.31,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.19,"3":0.55,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:19.221Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+6","people":"-8","treasury":"+6"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+1","church":"-5","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":33,"church":21,"people":38,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.26,"church":2.52,"people":1.33,"treasury":2.5},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.59,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":7,"people":-7,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":6,"people":-8,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:21.013Z","v":3,"id":"d1bc81e8-be29-4eca-8280-30eaaa85dd2d","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.8102351699912793,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0,"year":15,"after":{"army":10,"church":24,"people":25,"treasury":85},"blend":0.2835,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:21.013Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1959,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.22,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.33,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.3,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.19,"2":0.46,"3":0.1,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:21.191Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":13,"church":28,"people":31,"treasury":90},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.93,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.59,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2739,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:23.005Z","v":3,"id":"5a37255c-a880-4a42-9302-31127eee62bd","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6670930823818144,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":10,"church":25,"people":26,"treasury":84},"blend":0.6535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:23.005Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.35,"2":0.42,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:23.188Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":10,"church":24,"people":25,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.87,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.99,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2697,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:24.981Z","v":3,"id":"4edc890f-e904-47f3-9051-b121f3b37154","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.36167910379706036,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":2,"church":24,"people":23,"treasury":88},"blend":0.65,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:24.981Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.48,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.6,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.62,"2":0.32,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:25.185Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+3"},"Investigate":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":10,"church":25,"people":26,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.86,"people":1.65,"treasury":2.22},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.89,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.36}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:27.003Z","v":3,"id":"64029d83-817e-4be3-a3d6-138ea26b1b52","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":0.35},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.151853181680496,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":1,"year":18,"after":{"army":0,"church":23,"people":14,"treasury":94},"blend":0.6535,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:27.003Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.09,"3":0.69,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.36,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.65,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":282},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:27.285Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 35% of the time.","description":"Margarethe III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"0d4a9637-bf86-4576-8e27-59aac8cd952c","before":{"army":2,"church":24,"people":23,"treasury":88},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.81,"people":1.16,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.82,"people":2.48,"treasury":0.8}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":282},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-14}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:28.985Z","v":3,"id":"2f2940b6-c9d4-4e08-8c2a-39ca06a94423","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.765142901349495,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":48},"blend":0.9977,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:28.985Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.36,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.46,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.48,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.45,"2":0.36,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:29.153Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.79,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.21,"church":1.66,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:31.003Z","v":3,"id":"e4f74564-da62-458c-890f-c08afc92afd5","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3820789748067486,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":37,"church":42,"people":36,"treasury":37},"blend":0.7746000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:31.003Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.64,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.3,"3":0.66,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:31.240Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+5","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":46,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.38,"people":1.05,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.3,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:33.006Z","v":3,"id":"4e4a81c6-d91f-4c09-8b8b-51b8593a1ecc","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5333318908954794,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":29,"church":39,"people":39,"treasury":25},"blend":0.7761,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:33.006Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":36,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.61,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.34,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.08,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.54,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.24,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.87,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.42,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:33.169Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":36,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":236}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":37,"church":42,"people":36,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.69,"people":2.14,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.89,"people":1.69,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":236,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:34.992Z","v":3,"id":"7d40e761-9099-49ae-b4b3-d3a3f8dcbb4c","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9553150077271053,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":28,"church":42,"people":44,"treasury":33},"blend":0.77,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:34.992Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":39,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.53,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.43,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:35.145Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":39,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-11","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-19"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":29,"church":39,"people":39,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.34,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.43},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.16,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:37.002Z","v":3,"id":"e96e657e-1483-4dd4-9dea-59c1c2a453b1","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.20066694139882757,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.19,"year":5,"after":{"army":29,"church":43,"people":46,"treasury":36},"blend":0.1486,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:37.002Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":44,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:37.148Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":44,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":28,"church":42,"people":44,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.79,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:38.986Z","v":3,"id":"b6cae19e-35f5-450a-8b6d-cfe14cd10f4c","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4317407204498669,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.97,"year":6,"after":{"army":24,"church":41,"people":40,"treasury":26},"blend":0.7492,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:38.986Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":46,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.54,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.52,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:39.130Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":46,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":29,"church":43,"people":46,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.77,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.92,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:40.984Z","v":3,"id":"5ced3569-da52-425d-bc28-2b8e6a8e2b6f","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.15836649636001576,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.82,"year":7,"after":{"army":15,"church":36,"people":31,"treasury":19},"blend":0.6336999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:40.984Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":40,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.46,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.42,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:41.156Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":40,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":24,"church":41,"people":40,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.49,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":2.29,"people":2.42,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:42.993Z","v":3,"id":"34cc1a1f-924c-4196-b128-db5919dd4004","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund III","wisdom":0.23},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.21590977222106966,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":5,"church":29,"people":19,"treasury":0},"blend":0.77,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:42.993Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Edmund III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.63,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.37,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.74,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.57,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.45,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:43.194Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 23% of the time.","description":"Edmund III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-11","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-20"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":782,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"66d7dbfb-2562-434f-9623-58357f1e619d","before":{"army":15,"church":36,"people":31,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.36,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.32},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.1,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2732,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:44.991Z","v":3,"id":"fc347ddf-b2d9-450e-91d4-fd28561cb827","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3547119506284475,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":44,"church":63,"people":40,"treasury":34},"blend":0.4816,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:44.991Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.58,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":3.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.72,"4":0.19}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.79,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.31,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.28,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:45.169Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-7","church":"+12","people":"-11","treasury":"-17"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":724,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":3.02,"people":1.09,"treasury":0.62},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.08,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":13,"people":-10,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":12,"people":-11,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:46.999Z","v":3,"id":"a563109f-d134-4358-baff-eae3b1753df2","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9421181847353046,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.27,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":67,"people":52,"treasury":25},"blend":0.17820000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:46.999Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":40,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.52,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.45,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.66,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:47.205Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":40,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-10"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":44,"church":63,"people":40,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.82,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.25,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:48.990Z","v":3,"id":"1bda1d7b-844c-4cb3-90e4-ee9b37677b93","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.23897857535696443,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.73,"year":3,"after":{"army":41,"church":72,"people":65,"treasury":29},"blend":0.8596,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:48.990Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":52,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.44,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.33,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.32,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.3,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:49.183Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":52,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"+3"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":43,"church":67,"people":52,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.31,"people":2.97,"treasury":2.22},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.67,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:51.005Z","v":3,"id":"959c3177-fb6c-4c12-813e-74f83acd5d1b","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.1539678477730797,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.16,"year":4,"after":{"army":52,"church":72,"people":71,"treasury":19},"blend":0.1114,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:51.005Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":65,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.9,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.39,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.27,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:51.204Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":65,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+5"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":41,"church":72,"people":65,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.82,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":2.86,"church":1.9,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":10,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:53.005Z","v":3,"id":"079113fb-b76d-4870-b804-fa62a63977cb","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6698963275294054,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.85,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":70,"people":69,"treasury":15},"blend":0.39099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:53.005Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.29,"2":0.32,"3":0.3,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.68,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.56,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.6,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.48,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:53.155Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-10","treasury":"-15"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:54.988Z","v":3,"id":"1c91bde4-8084-4be5-8065-51789b3e3606","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.49616658085278287,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.38,"year":6,"after":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":70,"treasury":16},"blend":0.17479999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:54.988Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"left":0.38,"right":0.62}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9400000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.55,"2":0.22,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.59,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.54,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:55.161Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":50,"church":70,"people":69,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.49,"people":1.31,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.29,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2712,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.24,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:56.993Z","v":3,"id":"8d6599ed-4703-489f-960f-03ba544007f3","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8924665674609056,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":81,"people":59,"treasury":21},"blend":0.9845999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:56.993Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.05,"3":0.65,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.62,"2":0.17,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.4,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.18,"2":0.09,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.32,"2":0.35,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:57.198Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":70,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2.53,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.26,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:00:58.993Z","v":3,"id":"7b0d30a1-dfdd-4840-814d-d782a3042bfe","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.3879908286897229,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.02,"year":8,"after":{"army":48,"church":74,"people":46,"treasury":3},"blend":0.5492,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:58.993Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.25,"2":0.1,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.5,"2":0.13,"3":0.14,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.61,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.41,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:00:59.205Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+3","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-19"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"+2","people":"0","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":44,"church":81,"people":59,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.32,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.42},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":2.17,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-8,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:01.009Z","v":3,"id":"f9a5e585-8fb4-4a55-bdb6-52ac90a23347","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.40032456876364964,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.91,"year":9,"after":{"army":42,"church":74,"people":31,"treasury":15},"blend":0.9532,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:01.009Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.51,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.33,"2":0.04,"3":0.44,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.63,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.53,"2":0.26,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.3,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.8,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.46,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:01.193Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"-16","treasury":"+11"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"+4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":48,"church":74,"people":46,"treasury":3},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.92,"people":0.64,"treasury":2.88},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.56,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2701,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:02.994Z","v":3,"id":"d0eb40a9-dc5f-4a7c-8798-d3577b76e3dd","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.07228172927348853,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":37,"church":76,"people":17,"treasury":1},"blend":0.45999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:02.994Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.24,"2":0.04,"3":0.52,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.79,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.75,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.57,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47,"2":0.34,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:03.143Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":31,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"+7","treasury":"-6"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"-15","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":42,"church":74,"people":31,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":2.07,"people":0.76,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.11,"people":2.62,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":-15,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:05.016Z","v":3,"id":"230d6001-3f6e-4e49-ac15-29ef7a8a1ff9","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.54},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4700834810173229,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":31,"church":64,"people":21,"treasury":0},"blend":0.45999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:05.016Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.23,"2":0.04,"3":0.44,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.36,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.69,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.24,"2":0.07,"3":0.57,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.28,"2":0.27,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.52,"2":0.23,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":230},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:05.247Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 54% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-19","treasury":"-13"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-7","church":"-13","people":"+3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e5a9314a-7a13-4190-b4b8-2a5d7d2fb316","before":{"army":37,"church":76,"people":17,"treasury":1},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.92,"people":0.4,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":0.91,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2719,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-12,"people":4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":230},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-19,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-13,"people":3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:07.008Z","v":3,"id":"a984c664-1113-42aa-9b34-a638e9a788e9","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.54,"mock":false,"roll":0.10302587575571254,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0,"year":1,"after":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":46,"treasury":50},"blend":0.162,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:07.008Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.35,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.08,"3":0.68,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.4,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.67,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.39,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:07.174Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-10","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"},"Stand":{"army":"+5","church":"-11","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.61,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":2.39,"church":1.1,"people":2.11,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2578,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":8,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":5,"church":-11,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.08}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:09.012Z","v":3,"id":"041a9e95-fd17-4f65-8d38-845782de274c","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.62,"mock":false,"roll":0.6828854698551123,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.61,"year":2,"after":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":41,"treasury":56},"blend":0.613,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:09.012Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.38,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.07,"3":0.68,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.24,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.53,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:09.165Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"left":0.62,"right":0.38}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":46,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.97,"people":2.5,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.68,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.23}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:11.010Z","v":3,"id":"a29e6333-899d-400c-8f4d-a3aa9dd2edbb","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7038793567323309,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.79,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":53,"treasury":57},"blend":0.5559999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:11.010Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":41,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.21,"3":0.39999999999999997,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.29,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.41,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:11.187Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":41,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-6"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":41,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":1.29,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.18,"church":2.57,"people":2.91,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":3,"church":8,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:13.010Z","v":3,"id":"fdb341dd-3798-44c9-8b95-737c347ae2b3","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.09507298595846936,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.81,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":61,"people":48,"treasury":52},"blend":0.582,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:13.010Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":53,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:13.150Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":53,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.75,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2,"people":2.02,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:15.010Z","v":3,"id":"07c88884-39d4-4680-a6cc-57b44d8e8e45","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9720809854295467,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":52,"treasury":51},"blend":0.703,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:15.010Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":48,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.14,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:15.200Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":48,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":44,"church":61,"people":48,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.32,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.09,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:16.996Z","v":3,"id":"fa6d6d30-e014-4f6f-9fed-f9b2e258624b","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.4320578351602975,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.05,"year":6,"after":{"army":47,"church":64,"people":54,"treasury":53},"blend":0.047,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:16.996Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.61,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8200000000000001,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.49,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.75,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.62,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:17.236Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":45,"church":63,"people":52,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.68,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":241},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:19.010Z","v":3,"id":"d6a72af4-40a5-45a0-bb3f-cca3f95a003a","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.9744373996605122,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.08,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":65,"people":52,"treasury":64},"blend":0.146,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:19.010Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":54,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1881,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.51,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.61,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:19.167Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":54,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"+10"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":684,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":47,"church":64,"people":54,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.99,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.96,"people":1.73,"treasury":2.82}},"tokens":2565,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":10}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:21.012Z","v":3,"id":"af3fe430-f04f-44ea-b80c-6c194eb8ce0c","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.0055305466627668665,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.21,"year":8,"after":{"army":40,"church":64,"people":37,"treasury":88},"blend":0.156,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:21.012Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":52,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.67,"2":0.16,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.29,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.03,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.08,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:21.239Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":52,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":47,"church":65,"people":52,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.8,"people":0.69,"treasury":3.93},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.98,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-15,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:23.013Z","v":3,"id":"cf775b27-0dd9-4699-9142-79dc3affc052","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4309700235220979,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":21,"treasury":66},"blend":0.9969999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:23.013Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.26,"2":0.22,"3":0.32,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.6,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.47,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.51,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:23.192Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-2","church":"-12","people":"-17","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":40,"church":64,"people":37,"treasury":88},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":0.99,"people":0.6,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.09,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":-16,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-12,"people":-17,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:25.005Z","v":3,"id":"45021a0e-72fc-4f88-ac6d-88b4705de2ed","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3767283034086233,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.84,"year":10,"after":{"army":35,"church":45,"people":7,"treasury":66},"blend":0.594,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:25.005Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":21,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.34,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.59,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.68,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.29,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.13,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.4,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":294},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:25.299Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":21,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":21,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.26,"people":0.71,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.86,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":294},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:27.014Z","v":3,"id":"2bfc8253-d220-489a-a266-5a0cd0c0325e","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8232859209666934,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.96,"year":11,"after":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":4,"treasury":65},"blend":0.6719999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:27.014Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.53,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":258},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:27.273Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":35,"church":45,"people":7,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.72,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.6,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":258},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:28.998Z","v":3,"id":"616ab89f-13ed-48b1-b6bb-61fe5b835201","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.25569486048873924,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.05,"year":12,"after":{"army":32,"church":47,"people":17,"treasury":61},"blend":0.33499999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:28.998Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.6,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.81,"4":0.13}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.63,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.82,"1":0.18,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.12,"2":0.62,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:29.184Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-12","people":"-22","treasury":"-1"},"Return it":{"army":"-3","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":34,"church":41,"people":4,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2.44,"people":3.04,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.04,"people":0.18,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-12,"people":-22,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:31.002Z","v":3,"id":"179ff206-369e-44de-bed6-3f84ce19994d","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7835696168179362,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":29,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":52},"blend":0.7,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:31.002Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.21,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.4,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.66,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":3.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.86,"4":0.1}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.69,"2":0.22,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:31.179Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+1","church":"-12","people":"-23","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":32,"church":47,"people":17,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":1.03,"people":0.11,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":2.44,"people":3.04,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-12,"people":-23,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:32.999Z","v":3,"id":"77349951-0006-4f72-8c7e-e7d2d683c47b","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6515618782172352,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.3,"year":14,"after":{"army":19,"church":61,"people":23,"treasury":46},"blend":0.495,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:32.999Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.52,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.5,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.08,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:33.151Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+7","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-9","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":29,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.32,"church":1.26,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.07,"church":2.6,"people":1.3,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-9,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":7,"people":-8,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:35.014Z","v":3,"id":"34e1482e-31c7-4394-9418-7af5a77d1c00","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6910630309674866,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.99,"year":15,"after":{"army":5,"church":52,"people":12,"treasury":37},"blend":0.696,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:35.014Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.56,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.44,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.44,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.68,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.62,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.21,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:35.231Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-15","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":19,"church":61,"people":23,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.76,"church":1.18,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.14,"church":1.76,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-14,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:37.031Z","v":3,"id":"0ee1fba3-5d19-425a-8f5f-f3fed34740e2","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.3},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.09767211188638747,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.93,"year":16,"after":{"army":0,"church":45,"people":0,"treasury":32},"blend":0.651,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:37.031Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.56,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.63,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.63,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.28,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.28,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:37.163Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Godric IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-16","treasury":"-6"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"8f500df3-0f52-4a50-9e45-5a49c99d77f9","before":{"army":5,"church":52,"people":12,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.3,"people":0.64,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.03,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:39.005Z","v":3,"id":"d47c99dc-7c95-466c-b1b5-d60101ba580b","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.41,"mock":false,"roll":0.2863298034449262,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0,"year":1,"after":{"army":55,"church":40,"people":53,"treasury":46},"blend":0.2255,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:39.005Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.36,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.09,"3":0.71,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.39,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.75,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.45,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:39.175Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.63,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":2.34,"church":1.09,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":8,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":4,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.19}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:41.018Z","v":3,"id":"24865eb4-a560-4b15-be11-858bb491e453","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4637508016607881,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.03,"year":2,"after":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":53,"treasury":48},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:41.018Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":53,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.38,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.69,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:41.187Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":55,"church":40,"people":53,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":1.65,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.07,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:43.015Z","v":3,"id":"4f4b4419-0643-472a-8332-0858175f2b90","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6874279522605935,"step":12,"trap":0.09,"want":0.61,"year":3,"after":{"army":60,"church":44,"people":57,"treasury":49},"blend":0.291,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:43.015Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":53,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.09,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.75,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:43.170Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":53,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":53,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.77,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.06,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:44.997Z","v":3,"id":"f1dec98e-17bb-42f9-97c5-6c50a3b20ba8","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9314231346054778,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.81,"year":4,"after":{"army":61,"church":47,"people":65,"treasury":50},"blend":0.3755,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:44.997Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.78,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:45.194Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":60,"church":44,"people":57,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.43,"people":1.06,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.16,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:47.001Z","v":3,"id":"4813b921-0610-4f0c-84a6-47de1146dd95","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9627017639455153,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":61,"church":49,"people":71,"treasury":58},"blend":0.45549999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:47.001Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":65,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.55,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.41,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.86,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:47.163Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":61,"church":47,"people":65,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.67,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.08,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.59}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:49.018Z","v":3,"id":"bdc83aa4-d06e-456f-a46e-21b23da927c7","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.0036877509910657746,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":66,"church":39,"people":60,"treasury":46},"blend":0.472,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:49.018Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":71,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.08,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.69,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:49.169Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":61,"church":49,"people":71,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.1,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-10,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-11,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:51.000Z","v":3,"id":"8f875038-4cf5-4b2d-b1bb-901a78ae0b11","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.1128119129634213,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.05,"year":7,"after":{"army":62,"church":39,"people":60,"treasury":48},"blend":0.5175000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:51.000Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.64,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.78,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:51.183Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":66,"church":39,"people":60,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.89,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.8,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:53.019Z","v":3,"id":"8ad781cb-4347-40a8-a2f3-7f78478111cb","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6439355280170431,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":63,"church":48,"people":68,"treasury":39},"blend":0.46099999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:53.019Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":60,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1879,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.2,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.56,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.85,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.33,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.3,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:53.157Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":60,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Send grain":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":62,"church":39,"people":60,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.19,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.63,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2566,"applied":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":8,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:55.019Z","v":3,"id":"0daf86e0-eb9f-42c8-864d-66ff95001b16","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.1024504462323379,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.58,"year":9,"after":{"army":66,"church":40,"people":53,"treasury":49},"blend":0.2885,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:55.019Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":68,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.43,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.2,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.67,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.59,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.07,"3":0.91,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.06,"3":0.76,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:55.230Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":68,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"-16","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":63,"church":48,"people":68,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":1.23,"people":0.67,"treasury":2.79},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.37,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":-16,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:57.021Z","v":3,"id":"fbd9ed5d-4c0e-48b2-9070-0db464eda498","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.901046794041775,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":55,"church":44,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.46749999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:57.021Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":53,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.36,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.86,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.61,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.18,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.12,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":229},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:57.250Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":53,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+5","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":66,"church":40,"people":53,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.43,"church":1.54,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":0.98,"church":2.25,"people":2.71,"treasury":2.76}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":229},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-12,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:01:59.020Z","v":3,"id":"51f1dc87-234a-4b43-acc4-ba675491e546","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.5832281605676095,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.9,"year":11,"after":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":64,"treasury":61},"blend":0.9384999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:59.020Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:01:59.235Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-6"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":55,"church":44,"people":63,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":2.02,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.3,"church":1.8,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:01.025Z","v":3,"id":"7bb96b17-ece1-4317-859b-ee46366863bf","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.42776574120085464,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.95,"year":12,"after":{"army":56,"church":38,"people":53,"treasury":57},"blend":0.48799999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:01.025Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":64,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.63,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.37,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.33,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.97,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:01.227Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":64,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+6","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":64,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.31,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.49,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.03}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:03.023Z","v":3,"id":"c5fab93f-2116-482a-8444-040b3dfd835f","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4969310201611108,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.74,"year":13,"after":{"army":62,"church":46,"people":65,"treasury":58},"blend":0.33849999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:03.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":53,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.27,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.26,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.43,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.43,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.47,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:03.186Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":53,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-4"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+5","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":56,"church":38,"people":53,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.42,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":2.39,"church":2.56,"people":2.95,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":6,"church":8,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":5,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:05.020Z","v":3,"id":"56fd4ada-98ff-42bf-959c-2266fb6eee66","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.002590426296793513,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.1,"year":14,"after":{"army":61,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.0945,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:05.020Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":65,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.18,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:05.200Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":65,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":62,"church":46,"people":65,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.31,"people":1.71,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.75,"people":2.55,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:07.024Z","v":3,"id":"9c0cbc02-1758-4465-99b5-0d5e9d63f755","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.15120534280549913,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":59,"church":34,"people":52,"treasury":48},"blend":0.45549999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:07.024Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.25,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.67,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:07.206Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":61,"church":39,"people":63,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.47,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.07,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:09.008Z","v":3,"id":"9a377a10-9021-42b0-bdb5-30fdedc7f34f","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5817894576695504,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":54,"church":36,"people":57,"treasury":49},"blend":0.46099999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:09.008Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":52,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.27,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9400000000000001,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.61,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:09.235Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":52,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"+1","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":59,"church":34,"people":52,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":1.48,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":2.08,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:11.006Z","v":3,"id":"c8f34c23-c0e4-4f02-a923-eaa96ab88ccc","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9792479616205885,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":69,"treasury":39},"blend":0.4775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:11.006Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.19,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.45,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.58,"1":0.42,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.9,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:11.206Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+4","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":54,"church":36,"people":57,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.34,"people":0.42,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":2.31,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:13.027Z","v":3,"id":"087643bf-21af-40f7-ab62-0ed31c066d85","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.020295669990376464,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.35,"year":18,"after":{"army":45,"church":37,"people":61,"treasury":33},"blend":0.16299999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:13.027Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":69,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.62,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.15,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.66,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:13.182Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":69,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":51,"church":41,"people":69,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.57,"people":1.29,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.05,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:15.037Z","v":3,"id":"3d13ee3a-9a8e-4c4f-a10b-93cc84766b90","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6183268287408288,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.15,"year":19,"after":{"army":44,"church":37,"people":69,"treasury":31},"blend":0.095,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:15.037Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":61,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.62,"2":0.17,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.52,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.27,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.95}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.29,"2":0.52,"3":0.11,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:15.203Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":61,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-15","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":45,"church":37,"people":61,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.85,"people":0.78,"treasury":3.9},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.94,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-15,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:17.024Z","v":3,"id":"930310e5-11b7-4a3b-b7e6-a5c29acb16a9","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6221816559549573,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.49,"year":20,"after":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":71,"treasury":31},"blend":0.22599999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:17.024Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":69,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:17.209Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":69,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:19.027Z","v":3,"id":"eda20186-0119-4957-a354-8d3c015ef981","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7985356810408173,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.98,"year":21,"after":{"army":44,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":39},"blend":0.44649999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:19.027Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":71,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.2,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.64,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.55,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.39,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:19.162Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":71,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.18,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.1,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:21.032Z","v":3,"id":"9277dcba-097c-4914-b8c9-61f1e82b626d","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6409668881639721,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.99,"year":22,"after":{"army":42,"church":41,"people":81,"treasury":45},"blend":0.45099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:21.032Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":77,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.69,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.58,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.71,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.6,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:21.168Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":77,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-14","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":44,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.87,"church":1.39,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.62},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.04,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:23.028Z","v":3,"id":"c0804ffe-a7d7-4531-bd2d-5c52355799b8","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.172191055692003,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":38,"church":39,"people":73,"treasury":51},"blend":0.925,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:23.028Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.18,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.55,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.09,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:23.180Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":42,"church":41,"people":81,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.73,"people":1.24,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.97,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:25.026Z","v":3,"id":"9d2f1d87-3bae-43cd-9bdb-0d9ac0ccde3d","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.323772413132551,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.99,"year":24,"after":{"army":38,"church":32,"people":66,"treasury":42},"blend":0.45099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:25.026Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":73,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.12,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.63,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.58,"2":0.19,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.7,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:25.230Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":38,"church":39,"people":73,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.37,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.13,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:27.031Z","v":3,"id":"8e326e1c-7921-413d-8191-6fcb02c60d37","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8887662428607641,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.03,"year":25,"after":{"army":39,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":43},"blend":0.019,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:27.031Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":66,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":278},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:27.309Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":66,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":38,"church":32,"people":66,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.96,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.13,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":278},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:29.016Z","v":3,"id":"910080e3-9294-4e1b-90fc-2b0a30e6cc40","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.17233653249234648,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":1,"year":26,"after":{"army":47,"church":27,"people":56,"treasury":41},"blend":0.4775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:29.016Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":69,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.71,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.81,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.25,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.55,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:29.161Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":69,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+7","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-3"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-8","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":39,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.55,"church":1.44,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.35,"church":2.12,"people":2.71,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":7,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:31.032Z","v":3,"id":"c10f897a-4907-4c13-88dc-0bed1c6fef57","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.0666837536452396,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.35,"year":27,"after":{"army":53,"church":19,"people":55,"treasury":41},"blend":0.5865,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:31.032Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":56,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.27,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:31.221Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":56,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+5","church":"-9","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":47,"church":27,"people":56,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.41,"church":1.22,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.77,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-8,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.57}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:33.027Z","v":3,"id":"8c16b6c3-1d65-46af-9475-632f7e7c0d60","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.823736540937573,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.99,"year":28,"after":{"army":49,"church":23,"people":61,"treasury":43},"blend":0.44549999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:33.027Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.67,"2":0.18,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.46,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.69,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.57,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.66,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:33.237Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-9","church":"-17","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":53,"church":19,"people":55,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":0.56,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.66},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.22,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2655,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-17,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:35.018Z","v":3,"id":"f7f4a054-fdf2-414c-89fd-3fb15368f34f","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.45962520984872945,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.63,"year":29,"after":{"army":51,"church":25,"people":67,"treasury":50},"blend":0.2945,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:35.018Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":61,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.43,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.59,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.51,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:35.173Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":61,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":49,"church":23,"people":61,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.73,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.08,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:37.101Z","v":3,"id":"60e161eb-1dba-4bfe-b82e-932e46dc35b6","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.015942291991466684,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.97,"year":30,"after":{"army":53,"church":26,"people":72,"treasury":41},"blend":0.882,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:37.101Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":67,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.43,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.63,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.8,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.61,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:37.295Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:39.018Z","v":3,"id":"a877ec88-8b67-4e57-b781-c5e3cc67f16d","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.2853354479715513,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.01,"year":31,"after":{"army":53,"church":27,"people":83,"treasury":31},"blend":0.08700000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:39.018Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":72,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.23,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.08,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.31,"3":0.5700000000000001,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":268},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:39.286Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":227}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":53,"church":26,"people":72,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.82,"people":1.36,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.99,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":227,"forecast":268},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.71}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:41.060Z","v":3,"id":"aa06915e-2f82-48ae-8232-894bf85dab27","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.3623198354028825,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.93,"year":32,"after":{"army":46,"church":24,"people":72,"treasury":32},"blend":0.963,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:41.060Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.24,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.23,"3":0.59,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.41,"2":0.11,"3":0.43,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.44,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:41.274Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"-5"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":53,"church":27,"people":83,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":1.64,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.93,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:43.033Z","v":3,"id":"510db488-4b32-4fc6-bb93-ced530862ae4","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.16225257341677124,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.89,"year":33,"after":{"army":40,"church":19,"people":63,"treasury":16},"blend":0.40599999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:43.033Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":72,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.33,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.79,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.48,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.26,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:43.190Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":72,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-17"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":46,"church":24,"people":72,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.51,"people":1.14,"treasury":0.62},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.15,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.74}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:45.023Z","v":3,"id":"c49d48f1-69f1-4a01-a2be-2394ccc958e1","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.1948539338342561,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.91,"year":34,"after":{"army":36,"church":13,"people":59,"treasury":12},"blend":0.4205,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:45.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1971,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.53,"2":0.35,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.51,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.48,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.56,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:45.198Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":792,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":40,"church":19,"people":63,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.44,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":1.77,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2763,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:47.035Z","v":3,"id":"436ce097-8711-447b-9c9a-a26a746a70e2","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.22796894712644566,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.08,"year":35,"after":{"army":35,"church":12,"people":57,"treasury":24},"blend":0.047,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:47.035Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.44,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.26,"2":0.46,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.08,"2":0.07,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.54,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.83,"4":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:47.207Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":36,"church":13,"people":59,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.8,"people":2.64,"treasury":0.62},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.86,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.93}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:49.023Z","v":3,"id":"e1ab2317-2a52-4c96-a4f2-b9fd7566f107","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5687864544564019,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.97,"year":36,"after":{"army":35,"church":12,"people":53,"treasury":16},"blend":0.9755,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:49.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":12,"danger":["church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:49.188Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":12,"danger":["church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":35,"church":12,"people":57,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.88,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.29},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.74,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:51.036Z","v":3,"id":"4b944de8-6b13-4692-bd5d-37e71d99d5a4","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5046501359743507,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.93,"year":37,"after":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":58,"treasury":12},"blend":0.424,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:51.036Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":12,"danger":["church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.45,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.43,"2":0.04,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.39,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.48,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.18,"2":0.04,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:51.187Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":12,"danger":["church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"0","church":"-11","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":35,"church":12,"people":53,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.05,"people":1,"treasury":2.23},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.31,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2735,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":-12,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:53.035Z","v":3,"id":"5032ac09-bd9d-46b1-8733-94d14c6f44e6","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.45678775215355816,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.5,"year":38,"after":{"army":34,"church":25,"people":50,"treasury":7},"blend":0.2415,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:53.035Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.62,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.64,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.26,"2":0.17,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.11,"3":0.7,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.32,"2":0.29,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.49,"2":0.37,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:53.193Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-4","church":"-14","people":"+2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":58,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":0.87,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.55,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-14,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:55.039Z","v":3,"id":"ff058f66-d8c6-4db0-b43c-4ab65e05d01f","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Radulf I","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.31,"mock":false,"roll":0.9437800666112424,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.01,"year":39,"after":{"army":32,"church":20,"people":40,"treasury":0},"blend":0.17500000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:55.039Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.34,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.25,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.61,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.29,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.58,"2":0.12,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.74,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.34,"2":0.1,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:55.178Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Radulf I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7a36589f-3a62-4759-ad98-e4266d5b0b95","before":{"army":34,"church":25,"people":50,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.77,"people":1.39,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.51,"people":1.11,"treasury":0.9}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-13}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.38}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:57.036Z","v":3,"id":"63a5851f-f394-4e20-a01f-3c4d904e50a0","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.6660881386725037,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.06,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":44,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3151999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:57.036Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.66,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.32,"3":0.56,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:57.209Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+5"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.79,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.77,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:02:59.032Z","v":3,"id":"f305d079-9909-49f8-9c10-f803874dc64b","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.3535526710268033,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.93,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":39,"treasury":54},"blend":0.6951,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:59.032Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":44,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.42,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.41,"2":0.48,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.43,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:02:59.198Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":44,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.8,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.6,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:01.022Z","v":3,"id":"63c39748-076d-4182-a30a-3f0e68a871b5","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7504432297800796,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.96,"year":3,"after":{"army":43,"church":51,"people":45,"treasury":59},"blend":0.6845,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:01.022Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":39,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.21,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.73,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.64,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.52,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.76,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:01.207Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":39,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-8","church":"-13","people":"-17","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":39,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":0.89,"people":0.62,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.23,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-13,"people":-17,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:03.022Z","v":3,"id":"d7eb7b6e-3ffd-4af0-b82d-7176416d5206","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.2971019722133341,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.02,"year":4,"after":{"army":41,"church":51,"people":46,"treasury":61},"blend":0.29839999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:03.022Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":45,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:03.184Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":45,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":43,"church":51,"people":45,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.94,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":1.63,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:05.023Z","v":3,"id":"9bfe4c12-3ab6-49f0-8f34-08cecff15ecb","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9611261459645646,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":47,"treasury":62},"blend":0.7144999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:05.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":46,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.33,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":271},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:05.294Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":46,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":41,"church":51,"people":46,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.25,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.43,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":271},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:07.019Z","v":3,"id":"fa7d4a33-73d7-4894-aebe-bfffea6f7953","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.6397101999151718,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.09,"year":6,"after":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":52,"treasury":56},"blend":0.1306,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:07.019Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":47,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.07,"3":0.86,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.29,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.34,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.21,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:07.167Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":47,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-3","church":"+10","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+4","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":47,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.85,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.07,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":10,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:09.020Z","v":3,"id":"be3dd45c-87cd-4f45-87ec-afe577bac9ec","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.386377479476951,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":26,"church":31,"people":34,"treasury":43},"blend":0.7087,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:09.020Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.49,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.74,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.62,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":232},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:09.252Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-16","church":"-17","people":"-19","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":52,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.65,"church":0.6,"people":0.39,"treasury":0.82},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.32,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-15,"church":-16,"people":-18,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":232},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-17,"people":-19,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:11.023Z","v":3,"id":"53dec517-58d9-417e-82c1-60804c5a3108","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7824518724283589,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.97,"year":8,"after":{"army":27,"church":36,"people":42,"treasury":44},"blend":0.6945,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:11.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":34,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.63,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.55,"2":0.15,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.33,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.22,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:11.202Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":34,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-18","treasury":"-6"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":26,"church":31,"people":34,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.49,"people":0.5,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.33,"people":2.55,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-18,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:13.023Z","v":3,"id":"c5151644-e449-4d11-be64-46937bab361f","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.5890463871993274,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":25,"church":35,"people":37,"treasury":40},"blend":0.7593,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:13.023Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.53,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:13.182Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":27,"church":36,"people":42,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.85,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.77,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:15.019Z","v":3,"id":"3a67d991-6321-43bb-bf95-2fe7026e990d","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3013671728025653,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":28,"treasury":28},"blend":0.7058,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:15.019Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.57,"2":0.19,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.9,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.36,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:15.203Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":25,"church":35,"people":37,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.63,"people":1.2,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.38,"church":1.79,"people":1.8,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:17.018Z","v":3,"id":"52ba09af-ae53-4583-b29a-513cf88bc99a","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.011034589840363873,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":10,"church":27,"people":15,"treasury":23},"blend":0.7016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:17.018Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.55,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.42,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.49,"2":0.4,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.76,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.11,"2":0.19,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:17.210Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-11","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-6"},"Meet them":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"+4","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":28,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.51,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.79,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:19.034Z","v":3,"id":"e3c44296-5291-4816-b23f-a417bd9a0795","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.29},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5825687473813008,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.98,"year":12,"after":{"army":0,"church":24,"people":9,"treasury":18},"blend":0.6987,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:19.034Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.42,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:19.179Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 29% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-12","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1379deb5-0bdd-4af7-97e6-cc91fdb3a3f0","before":{"army":10,"church":27,"people":15,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":1.66,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.69,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:21.024Z","v":3,"id":"bf6e04d2-b681-4c79-b233-966c02ea278c","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8066712977098687,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":58,"church":43,"people":35,"treasury":51},"blend":0.8402,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:21.024Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Godric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.61,"4":0.1}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.69,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.7,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.24,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.45,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:21.235Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"11360394-ee38-4bcc-9bf1-a7129ab8807e","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.56,"church":1.3,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":1.21,"church":2.09,"people":2.66,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":7,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:23.039Z","v":3,"id":"a4164936-fd06-4af7-ac89-123f7c984fa5","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7344048568473631,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":62,"church":35,"people":15,"treasury":43},"blend":0.8351,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:23.039Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":35,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Godric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.17,"3":0.52,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.4,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.24,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.62,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.89,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:23.210Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"11360394-ee38-4bcc-9bf1-a7129ab8807e","before":{"army":58,"church":43,"people":35,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.28,"people":0.24,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":2.31,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-21,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:25.040Z","v":3,"id":"587c4539-52a2-4d9d-b7bd-c544d9c305d4","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5711485001757441,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":62,"church":24,"people":0,"treasury":21},"blend":0.8217,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:25.040Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Godric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.26,"3":0.34,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.61,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.67,"1":0.32,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:25.258Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Godric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-1","church":"-12","people":"-20","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"11360394-ee38-4bcc-9bf1-a7129ab8807e","before":{"army":62,"church":35,"people":15,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":0.96,"people":0.34,"treasury":0.12},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.75,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":-19,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-12,"people":-20,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:27.037Z","v":3,"id":"c41b2c69-2968-4dfe-a4e9-eba3f246da05","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.04572790810583305,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.51,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"blend":0.46950000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:27.037Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.26,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.58,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.25,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.13,"2":0.45,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:27.231Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.88,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":1.66,"people":1.62,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:29.022Z","v":3,"id":"4915be9f-0e38-4d8a-a4c4-044006005912","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.4619050117670589,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.2,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":57,"people":46,"treasury":39},"blend":0.137,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:29.022Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.31,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.55,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.37,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":271},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:29.293Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.4,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.48,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":271},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:31.038Z","v":3,"id":"b4f0d217-cf7d-4957-bca3-2c2a23487973","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7180598724394369,"step":12,"trap":0.87,"want":0.79,"year":3,"after":{"army":56,"church":62,"people":54,"treasury":40},"blend":0.43900000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:31.038Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":46,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.87,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.41,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.36,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:31.212Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":46,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":49,"church":57,"people":46,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.22,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":2.48,"church":2.36,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":7,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":6,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.57,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:33.042Z","v":3,"id":"ae77d408-0d5d-4c52-a6d3-e5143b8eb551","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9527929062168214,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.79,"year":4,"after":{"army":50,"church":63,"people":55,"treasury":34},"blend":0.44800000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:33.042Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":54,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.1,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.63,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.63,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:33.198Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":54,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+3","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-7","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":56,"church":62,"people":54,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.12,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.63},"right":{"army":1.38,"church":1.97,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:35.029Z","v":3,"id":"84f2a987-bcd7-4a75-a031-8e9822991009","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.13451914784493435,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.49,"year":5,"after":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":41,"treasury":22},"blend":0.2785,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:35.029Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":55,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.58,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.66,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.4,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.2,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.73,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.51,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:35.202Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":55,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-11","church":"-12","people":"-15","treasury":"-13"},"Turn them away":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":50,"church":63,"people":55,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.03,"people":0.78,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.02,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-12,"people":-15,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:37.025Z","v":3,"id":"090ffdf6-d992-4de6-90a2-d6f1edcb2fd8","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.23270212583851224,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.55,"year":6,"after":{"army":34,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":13},"blend":0.30700000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:37.025Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":41,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.55,"right":0.45}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.48,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":238},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:37.263Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":41,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":258}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":41,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.51,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.3,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":258,"forecast":238},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:39.043Z","v":3,"id":"68f36119-772f-458c-a0ce-049dfc759062","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.44526164606420493,"step":12,"trap":0.87,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":24,"church":39,"people":22,"treasury":0},"blend":0.55,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:39.043Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.87,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.77,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.65,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.75,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.4,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.64,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.53,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.41,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:39.229Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-14","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9329568e-8f41-4398-a109-880015fc66cc","before":{"army":34,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.27,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.53},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.16,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:41.052Z","v":3,"id":"127e5215-2711-4bef-8383-1e5aeaeac0a2","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.11623582976905089,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.46,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":48,"treasury":44},"blend":0.1608,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:41.052Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.76,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:41.249Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.6,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.26,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-2,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.07,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:43.043Z","v":3,"id":"3e615a82-707e-48ac-9ae4-d6f746ab928d","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8837627456746648,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":49},"blend":0.3268,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:43.043Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":48,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.19,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.43,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.72,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.39,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:43.226Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":48,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":48,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.94,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.14,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:45.040Z","v":3,"id":"6b6799df-cbf7-4cc9-bdfc-a7b4b782b977","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.47961789612535566,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.67,"year":3,"after":{"army":49,"church":48,"people":54,"treasury":50},"blend":0.8672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:45.040Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.73,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.61,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.24,"3":0.74,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:45.184Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.83,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.81,"people":1.42,"treasury":2.71}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:47.045Z","v":3,"id":"90233729-77ad-4111-a32b-007f410f1556","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.75,"mock":false,"roll":0.5019505138223161,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.75,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":61,"treasury":55},"blend":0.75,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:47.045Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":54,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.23,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.09,"3":0.71,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.17,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.34,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:47.219Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":54,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":49,"church":48,"people":54,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.24,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.59,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:49.032Z","v":3,"id":"4195a41e-58de-434d-be7f-a26274472374","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.541389040736111,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":65,"treasury":63},"blend":0.3268,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:49.032Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.72,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.57,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.79,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:49.220Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":61,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.55,"people":1.17,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.16,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.59}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:51.031Z","v":3,"id":"a15e31c3-e909-4fae-bedf-837b9b76ccc6","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5047689135519744,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":71,"treasury":71},"blend":0.33039999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:51.031Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":65,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.65,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.63,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:51.206Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":65,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":65,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.48,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.2,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:53.032Z","v":3,"id":"7f1bc9f9-ec56-43e8-9526-ddba6fa34ff3","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.46969466824723494,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.04,"year":7,"after":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":73},"blend":0.11480000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:53.032Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":71,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.39,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.26,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.27,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:53.196Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":71,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":71,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.82,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":1.78,"people":1.78,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:55.031Z","v":3,"id":"21893899-8f92-4fc3-877c-ca02d937e1cb","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4783520118514446,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.98,"year":8,"after":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":73,"treasury":79},"blend":0.32719999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:55.031Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.47,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.71,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.53,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:55.209Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.78,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:57.038Z","v":3,"id":"5fe69ae9-251d-49cc-b9e6-3677b4457523","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.22164478663234388,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.3,"year":9,"after":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":82,"treasury":77},"blend":0.742,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:57.038Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":73,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.79,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.35,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:57.185Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":73,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":73,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.13,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.65,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:03:59.056Z","v":3,"id":"e2ac8956-784e-4ab9-b17c-b42a4286c3a5","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.38482488705484985,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.98,"year":10,"after":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":67},"blend":0.9936,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:59.056Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.42,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.47,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":238},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:03:59.294Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":82,"treasury":77},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.76,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.83,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":238},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:01.055Z","v":3,"id":"c64f6fe3-a49c-4baa-9448-d10b06bf1fd5","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.7531911856192011,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":81,"treasury":75},"blend":0.36799999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:01.055Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":77,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.36,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.11,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.52,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.25,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.94,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:01.224Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":77,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.89,"people":2.38,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.84,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.59}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:03.055Z","v":3,"id":"49802b6e-c9b9-459a-8d62-645d970ea4b6","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.85,"mock":false,"roll":0.058384379664568,"step":12,"trap":0.87,"want":0.95,"year":12,"after":{"army":42,"church":38,"people":70,"treasury":71},"blend":0.882,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:03.055Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.87,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.61,"2":0.25,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.75,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.64,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.61,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:03.249Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":81,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.33,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.98,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:05.049Z","v":3,"id":"711f8691-ef4b-4280-bb62-aef96edbd2c8","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.28719097732092136,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.86,"year":13,"after":{"army":34,"church":36,"people":65,"treasury":77},"blend":0.30239999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:05.049Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":70,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.06,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:05.243Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":70,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+5"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":42,"church":38,"people":70,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.73,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.95,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:07.054Z","v":3,"id":"f975207e-8903-4ff4-9360-d8c3fa085f9f","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.4546072720951997,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.74,"year":14,"after":{"army":35,"church":37,"people":67,"treasury":79},"blend":0.8964000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:07.054Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":65,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:07.225Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":34,"church":36,"people":65,"treasury":77},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.02,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.21,"church":1.57,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:09.033Z","v":3,"id":"6eea83d9-4bb9-4260-9f51-4ed3595fcf50","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5219062233805327,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":15,"after":{"army":29,"church":36,"people":65,"treasury":78},"blend":0.3236,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:09.033Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":67,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.25,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.26,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.44,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.41,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:09.240Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":67,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":722,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":35,"church":37,"people":67,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.79,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":1.8,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:11.034Z","v":3,"id":"aff756bd-e75b-4ab3-90d7-d92ad6e63fee","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.67608074700065,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.99,"year":16,"after":{"army":31,"church":38,"people":69,"treasury":85},"blend":0.33719999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:11.034Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":65,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:11.245Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":65,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":29,"church":36,"people":65,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.82,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.06,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:13.037Z","v":3,"id":"0a2d4d0b-df18-4c75-9b31-facfa34abc43","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.62,"mock":false,"roll":0.9954197212860125,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.06,"year":17,"after":{"army":32,"church":39,"people":70,"treasury":84},"blend":0.4408,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:13.037Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.14,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.09,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:13.227Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"left":0.62,"right":0.38}}}},"latencyMs":269}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":31,"church":38,"people":69,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.91,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":269,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.23}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:15.050Z","v":3,"id":"e87bbe6f-bfd8-424f-8ebc-c3a642f2fc01","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.62,"mock":false,"roll":0.9337049409643021,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.76,"year":18,"after":{"army":37,"church":44,"people":77,"treasury":85},"blend":0.6648000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:15.050Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.51,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.36,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:15.262Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.62,"right":0.38}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":32,"church":39,"people":70,"treasury":84},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.43,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.35,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":5,"church":5,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":4,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.25}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:17.043Z","v":3,"id":"46febea9-b2fa-43b6-96d1-db01f18ac99c","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.8082377758041284,"step":12,"trap":0.83,"want":0.99,"year":19,"after":{"army":36,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":80},"blend":0.9968,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:17.043Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.83,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.4,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.33,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.15,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.53,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.61,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.49,"2":0.22,"3":0.15,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.68,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:17.208Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":37,"church":44,"people":77,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.83,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2.05,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:19.058Z","v":3,"id":"4d41e63c-d1a2-4fd6-b5bb-f34e1659618a","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.76,"mock":false,"roll":0.9126099088739434,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.99,"year":20,"after":{"army":30,"church":38,"people":64,"treasury":70},"blend":0.8336,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:19.058Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.33,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.56,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.12,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.75,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.4,"2":0.1,"3":0.24,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.66,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:19.249Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-6"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":36,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.83,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.41,"church":1.53,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.51}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:21.056Z","v":3,"id":"84d4a1b4-44e0-4fca-ac75-a5ed1ee5ede3","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.14242589624782687,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.6,"year":21,"after":{"army":28,"church":37,"people":61,"treasury":67},"blend":0.21239999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:21.056Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":64,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:21.190Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":64,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":30,"church":38,"people":64,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.8,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.01,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.19,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:23.057Z","v":3,"id":"fb938bb5-3ae6-4b49-8970-ba54619de5a5","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.5629957159814138,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.11,"year":22,"after":{"army":27,"church":39,"people":72,"treasury":57},"blend":0.1372,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:23.057Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":61,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.66,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.2,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.86,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.32,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:23.201Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":61,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":28,"church":37,"people":61,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.79,"people":1.26,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.09,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.71}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:25.077Z","v":3,"id":"c6840b98-87f5-4bcf-97f2-89281bbc11d2","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2940999265338269,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.92,"year":23,"after":{"army":18,"church":38,"people":67,"treasury":48},"blend":0.31479999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:25.077Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":72,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.63,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.54,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.27,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.64,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:25.234Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":72,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":27,"church":39,"people":72,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.82,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.98,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:27.061Z","v":3,"id":"434a4d6d-4eb1-4b3a-869a-765207ceb24c","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7171571762258695,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.74,"year":24,"after":{"army":20,"church":41,"people":72,"treasury":49},"blend":0.23679999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:27.061Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.66,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.64,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:27.239Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-13","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":18,"church":38,"people":67,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.94,"church":1.46,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.14,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:29.043Z","v":3,"id":"b350443a-6220-40e4-a076-44aba8319465","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6266253426279593,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.26,"year":25,"after":{"army":19,"church":48,"people":73,"treasury":49},"blend":0.0968,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:29.043Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.34,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:29.215Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":20,"church":41,"people":72,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.28,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.48,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:31.062Z","v":3,"id":"41e7390c-aad3-4047-ba25-94804302167c","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.7055018709049174,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.46,"year":26,"after":{"army":16,"church":49,"people":69,"treasury":38},"blend":0.8068000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:31.062Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.45,"2":0.24,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.59,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.43,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.28,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.34,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.16,"2":0.39,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:31.270Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-15","church":"-11","people":"-11","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":19,"church":48,"people":73,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.98,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":0.73,"church":1.06,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-15,"church":-11,"people":-11,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.07,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:33.061Z","v":3,"id":"1a543c28-ca77-45b0-84ea-c0cb3e781320","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.27825979320416416,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.05,"year":27,"after":{"army":13,"church":49,"people":69,"treasury":36},"blend":0.6688000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:33.061Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.55,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.38,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.45,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:33.217Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":16,"church":49,"people":69,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.88,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.61,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:35.062Z","v":3,"id":"27ee7939-f113-432a-88f4-a1364437ba8e","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9941544594027805,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.84,"year":28,"after":{"army":13,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":35},"blend":0.26879999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:35.062Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.66,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.67,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.27,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:35.248Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-13","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":13,"church":49,"people":69,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.95,"church":1.44,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.13,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:37.067Z","v":3,"id":"b0b1b484-493d-400c-9aba-ec35329d215c","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.03544863345374849,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.58,"year":29,"after":{"army":11,"church":52,"people":75,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8316,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:37.067Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.33,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:37.268Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":13,"church":52,"people":78,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.92,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":1.87,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:39.049Z","v":3,"id":"b164d33a-1f4a-42d5-9987-49ba98f814cb","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.667949362390573,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.98,"year":30,"after":{"army":11,"church":53,"people":78,"treasury":32},"blend":0.31359999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:39.049Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.37,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.33,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.23,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.61,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:39.212Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-23","church":"-14","people":"-19","treasury":"-21"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":11,"church":52,"people":75,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.12,"church":0.86,"people":0.42,"treasury":0.27},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.99,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-23,"church":-14,"people":-19,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:41.051Z","v":3,"id":"3c4c8e91-348a-4f8d-9e60-6f4c3c222be7","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4191704730674499,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.22,"year":31,"after":{"army":14,"church":49,"people":79,"treasury":31},"blend":0.07039999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:41.051Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1963,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.95,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.66,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.14,"2":0.08,"3":0.35,"4":0.12}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.26,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.32,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.1,"2":0.48,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.12,"2":0.2,"3":0.59,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.16,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:41.196Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-23","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+6"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+2","church":"-5","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":11,"church":53,"people":78,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.07,"church":1.84,"people":0.68,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":1.58,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-4,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-23,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":2,"church":-5,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.57,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:43.053Z","v":3,"id":"6a5f7334-5175-42dd-b5f5-7755cbe515ba","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.789718275705823,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.61,"year":32,"after":{"army":12,"church":54,"people":91,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8208,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:43.053Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.5,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.9,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.37,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:43.220Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"+3"},"Return it":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":14,"church":49,"people":79,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.31,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.24,"church":1.4,"people":0.95,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:45.064Z","v":3,"id":"99610f8f-7223-4df7-84a2-4b8f5bd76bd8","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.56,"mock":false,"roll":0.2555478625780123,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.22,"year":33,"after":{"army":7,"church":51,"people":89,"treasury":29},"blend":0.45120000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:45.064Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.7,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.67,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.69,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:45.273Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":12,"church":54,"people":91,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.67,"people":1.78,"treasury":2.05},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.1,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2715,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.12}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:47.067Z","v":3,"id":"b1c1b7ec-3fea-467b-8ec2-c421303d09eb","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.2534337768697079,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.73,"year":34,"after":{"army":2,"church":59,"people":85,"treasury":34},"blend":0.8727999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:47.067Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.06,"3":0.72,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.2,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.51,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.1,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.62,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:47.256Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"+4"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":7,"church":51,"people":89,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":2.59,"people":1.57,"treasury":2.34},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.72,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2734,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:49.063Z","v":3,"id":"703a8e93-8c7b-4696-b96d-354b5bfedf58","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.68},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6375498337382273,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.13,"year":35,"after":{"army":0,"church":54,"people":74,"treasury":38},"blend":0.6876,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:49.063Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1986,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.44,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.88,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:49.238Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 68% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-5","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":807,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"220d9ec4-062d-4e49-95ee-06d33329c24f","before":{"army":2,"church":59,"people":85,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.54,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.21},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.32,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2793,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:51.054Z","v":3,"id":"b0840ed4-4dc7-44ca-92f2-c2536c578de1","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.6864781279998575,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.36,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":43},"blend":0.294,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:51.054Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.78,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:51.232Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.49,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.16,"people":2.11,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":2,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:53.060Z","v":3,"id":"c07ffc8e-5571-4dd5-a4c4-a17e09f41cf1","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8657239900070433,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.9,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":56,"people":59,"treasury":50},"blend":0.6096,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:53.060Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.37,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.74,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.46,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.77,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:53.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:55.054Z","v":3,"id":"6d86c7e3-1f03-4af3-aba8-91ca8a900fa2","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2629608145440365,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.97,"year":3,"after":{"army":49,"church":55,"people":53,"treasury":39},"blend":0.6565,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:55.054Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.56,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.54,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:55.307Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":52,"church":56,"people":59,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.84,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.87,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:57.053Z","v":3,"id":"bc516ee8-dbf1-46fa-8379-04e362723818","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.25167797441242223,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.02,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":54,"treasury":43},"blend":0.33020000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:57.053Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":53,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1876,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":246},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:57.299Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":53,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":681,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":253}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":49,"church":55,"people":53,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.98,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.89,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2557,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":253,"forecast":246},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:04:59.053Z","v":3,"id":"a5fbde24-7402-49b1-b1e6-7679477fa56e","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.44746380377987327,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.84,"year":5,"after":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":43,"treasury":53},"blend":0.5924999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:59.053Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":54,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.45,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.05,"3":0.53,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.46,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.47,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.8099999999999999,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:04:59.293Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":54,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-5","church":"+2","people":"-12","treasury":"+9"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":54,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":2.15,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.76},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.84,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:01.058Z","v":3,"id":"08c205d7-1c68-4eee-87c1-a8ada0cd0dd1","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5977767314306517,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.8,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":64,"people":50,"treasury":55},"blend":0.5458999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:01.058Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":43,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.47,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.41,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:01.233Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":43,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+5","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":43,"church":59,"people":43,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.3,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.4,"church":2.3,"people":2.47,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":6,"church":5,"people":7,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":5,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:03.070Z","v":3,"id":"e33c772d-3533-4067-ac7b-6a2d11bade0f","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.5842341771844037,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.94,"year":7,"after":{"army":45,"church":69,"people":37,"treasury":47},"blend":0.6462999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:03.070Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":50,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.24,"2":0.04,"3":0.63,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.12,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.61,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:03.273Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":50,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"+9","treasury":"-1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-5","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":49,"church":64,"people":50,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":2.36,"people":0.85,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.26,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:05.058Z","v":3,"id":"10adfc2d-90ea-4308-9b73-b071fc82a5d3","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.3074113438583428,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.01,"year":8,"after":{"army":46,"church":71,"people":40,"treasury":48},"blend":0.3103,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:05.058Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":37,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.52,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":239},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:05.297Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":37,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":45,"church":69,"people":37,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":2.11,"people":2.16,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.71,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":239},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:07.059Z","v":3,"id":"ab9fbbe0-f445-4b7f-9a82-e7d6f356eef1","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.6644450953383731,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.3,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":36,"treasury":44},"blend":0.2571,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:07.059Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":40,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.25,"3":0.49,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.5,"2":0.39,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.44,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.35,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.42,"2":0.46,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:07.230Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":40,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+3","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":46,"church":71,"people":40,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.8,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":1.67,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":3,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:09.061Z","v":3,"id":"9fea743d-84fa-4e1e-bf0a-725de525a528","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.7641235772579784,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.95,"year":10,"after":{"army":51,"church":69,"people":37,"treasury":42},"blend":0.6661999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:09.061Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.74,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.07,"3":0.65,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:09.189Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":50,"church":68,"people":36,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.74,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.45},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:11.074Z","v":3,"id":"9fb34d69-1ca6-47b3-83e4-f195f4e6a74b","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.5683596097019266,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":50,"church":65,"people":31,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6797999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:11.074Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":37,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.31,"2":0.33,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.23,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.49,"2":0.34,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.63,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.54,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.58,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:11.259Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":51,"church":69,"people":37,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.57,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.03,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:13.208Z","v":3,"id":"7274fa47-2157-4fbd-8937-b6060a95ae95","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.51,"mock":false,"roll":0.25021088964492355,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.78,"year":12,"after":{"army":48,"church":70,"people":23,"treasury":34},"blend":0.6909,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:13.208Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":31,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.56,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.24,"2":0.06,"3":0.6,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.59,"2":0.17,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.5,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.1,"3":0.44,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.39999999999999997,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:13.451Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":31,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"-9","treasury":"0"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":50,"church":65,"people":31,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":2.37,"people":1.28,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.45,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":-8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":-9,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:15.076Z","v":3,"id":"2f1e4d20-ec74-45c8-af29-8b88cd3a7ae8","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6380328474836565,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.58,"year":13,"after":{"army":49,"church":76,"people":36,"treasury":30},"blend":0.7021,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:15.076Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":23,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.9,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.27,"3":0.64,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:15.276Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":23,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+7"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":48,"church":70,"people":23,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":2.44,"people":3,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.56,"people":0.92,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:17.066Z","v":3,"id":"af95b549-5815-4f88-a497-a8468d58ad52","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5899264162268854,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.52,"year":14,"after":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":40,"treasury":29},"blend":0.6718,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:17.066Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":36,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.59,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.43,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.06,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.12,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:17.262Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":36,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":49,"church":76,"people":36,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.95,"people":2.27,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.28,"church":1.38,"people":0.91,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:19.092Z","v":3,"id":"59dfdc83-6411-4645-9667-aa2f03749869","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.5635025073185977,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.11,"year":15,"after":{"army":55,"church":84,"people":46,"treasury":27},"blend":0.0968,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:19.092Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":40,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.59,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.29,"4":0.66}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:19.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":40,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-16","people":"-16","treasury":"+19"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":40,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":0.65,"people":0.68,"treasury":3.57},"right":{"army":2.26,"church":2.56,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":4,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-16,"people":-16,"treasury":19},"right":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:21.080Z","v":3,"id":"3db6b9a6-6b13-4edb-89fb-479c2431cc6c","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.5572118209123942,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.01,"year":16,"after":{"army":57,"church":94,"people":53,"treasury":27},"blend":0.3367,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:21.080Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.19,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.57,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.11,"3":0.7,"4":0.09}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:21.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"+1","church":"+9","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":55,"church":84,"people":46,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.35,"people":1.69,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.74,"people":2.48,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":2,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:23.069Z","v":3,"id":"ed675d5e-449e-46ca-9b50-6ab2baf37e54","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.063317544207671,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":54,"church":100,"people":49,"treasury":25},"blend":0.6632999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:23.069Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.46,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.21,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.26,"3":0.44,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.47,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.38,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:23.221Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3404a88f-a17b-47bd-8db6-b35641b0b22e","before":{"army":57,"church":94,"people":53,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":2.38,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.35,"church":1.8,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2719,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:25.083Z","v":3,"id":"aebc9ac9-45f0-4120-9bbf-ca7b507da718","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9709848439010669,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.09,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":57},"blend":0.07039999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:25.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.97,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.25,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.43,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9400000000000001,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:25.227Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+6"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":2.13,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.83,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:27.064Z","v":3,"id":"38bc817f-535c-4bb0-9ffc-7b65739fb278","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.16584527359910006,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":53},"blend":0.7256,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:27.064Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:27.223Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":52,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.89,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.04,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:29.066Z","v":3,"id":"90cb5794-4500-462e-83ee-113cdc60509f","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8443889668254405,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":50,"people":51,"treasury":54},"blend":0.7228,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:29.066Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.82,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":238},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:29.304Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.77,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.03,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":238},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:31.084Z","v":3,"id":"6783db0a-7df2-4005-bc9e-63f7369dcd73","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.826508776188978,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":53,"church":41,"people":62,"treasury":53},"blend":0.7156,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:31.084Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":51,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.27,"2":0.04,"3":0.49,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.59,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.66,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.39,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:31.269Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":51,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"0","people":"-17","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":51,"church":50,"people":51,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":2.04,"people":0.61,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.18,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:33.086Z","v":3,"id":"2cdd7225-17be-48a8-9aba-59d746517072","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.09523666830250188,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":53,"church":41,"people":62,"treasury":51},"blend":0.7228,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:33.086Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":62,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.91,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:33.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":62,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":53,"church":41,"people":62,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.93,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2581,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:35.070Z","v":3,"id":"b1877426-0c16-482e-a064-77cab55a3343","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.273209757182574,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":53,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":57},"blend":0.9788,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:35.070Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":62,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1877,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.49,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:35.275Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":62,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":682,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":53,"church":41,"people":62,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":2,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.45},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.93,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2559,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:37.073Z","v":3,"id":"0d8e6d4f-f679-4c53-ad57-72c4c9c54354","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.30561603031772044,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.79,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":60,"treasury":47},"blend":0.5744,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:37.073Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":64,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9400000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.26,"3":0.5,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.46,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:37.227Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":64,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-6","church":"+3","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":53,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.29,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.47,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":3,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:39.067Z","v":3,"id":"3f20dff7-9080-4610-aff5-d61a1537651b","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.6608258052259368,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.91,"year":8,"after":{"army":47,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":48},"blend":0.6972,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:39.067Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":60,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.81,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:39.231Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":60,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":60,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.56,"people":1.52,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.05,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:41.078Z","v":3,"id":"1a72ec6e-f1ac-4531-898e-67d1d1c75438","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8541660596345702,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.02,"year":9,"after":{"army":48,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":53},"blend":0.0172,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:41.078Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.37,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.69,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.64,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:41.226Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":305}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":47,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.84,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.93,"people":1.88,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":305,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:43.072Z","v":3,"id":"06666875-99ad-43b2-8f69-842f1e240122","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6160676396537146,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0,"year":10,"after":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":59},"blend":0.028000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:43.072Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.37,"2":0.34,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.28,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.39,"2":0.48,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.69,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:43.312Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+5"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":48,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.81,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":1.95,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:45.070Z","v":3,"id":"826a6cf3-3113-4b9a-b711-ac77dba745e1","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8952867547879697,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.36,"year":11,"after":{"army":35,"church":43,"people":66,"treasury":60},"blend":0.27599999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:45.070Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":56,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.06,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.85,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.2,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.29,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.49,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:45.313Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":56,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+2","church":"-5","people":"-14","treasury":"0"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.17,"church":1.61,"people":0.85,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.3,"church":2.02,"people":2.72,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:47.096Z","v":3,"id":"a50dbc8b-dc1c-4ac6-807f-921362fd1217","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.31097152415339147,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0,"year":12,"after":{"army":37,"church":44,"people":71,"treasury":67},"blend":0.008400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:47.096Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":66,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.64,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.46,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:47.319Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":66,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":35,"church":43,"people":66,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.93,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.01,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:49.072Z","v":3,"id":"7c19325f-bb53-4a92-aab5-cf1824aed886","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6634411828077476,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":37,"church":39,"people":69,"treasury":68},"blend":0.7408,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:49.072Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":71,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.3,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:49.298Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":71,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":37,"church":44,"people":71,"treasury":67},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.52,"people":1.77,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.55,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:51.089Z","v":3,"id":"2a56178a-dc99-489d-954f-f4d01e3d980c","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.24693523043932553,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":33,"church":38,"people":66,"treasury":69},"blend":0.7424,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:51.089Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":69,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.61,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:51.272Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":69,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"0"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":257}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":37,"church":39,"people":69,"treasury":68},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.81,"people":1.65,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.93,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":257,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:53.093Z","v":3,"id":"d6b5a45f-8716-4659-93e2-362419ae2c2c","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.5487012986988515,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.84,"year":15,"after":{"army":32,"church":36,"people":55,"treasury":75},"blend":0.6356,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:53.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":66,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.86,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:53.284Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":66,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-8"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":33,"church":38,"people":66,"treasury":69},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.77,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.42},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.08,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:55.077Z","v":3,"id":"5f66d3a7-a289-4d2c-b2fd-37b0cfbc70bd","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.19647830773586605,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":21,"church":35,"people":50,"treasury":80},"blend":0.7283999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:55.077Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":55,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.94,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.08,"3":0.89,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.36,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":258},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:55.335Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":55,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":32,"church":36,"people":55,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.83,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":2.87,"church":2.02,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":258},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:57.081Z","v":3,"id":"c8d35e1a-000e-434b-a467-af47c42a04f1","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.72,"mock":false,"roll":0.9263906865898583,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.91,"year":17,"after":{"army":22,"church":27,"people":60,"treasury":81},"blend":0.8568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:57.081Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.26,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.2,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.19,"3":0.8,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.39,"2":0.36,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:57.258Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-6","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-5"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+9","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":21,"church":35,"people":50,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":2.31,"people":0.85,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.28,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:05:59.082Z","v":3,"id":"dbf031ff-8dcc-4bfa-962a-83679d069f07","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.3192500541074934,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.04,"year":18,"after":{"army":20,"church":28,"people":64,"treasury":85},"blend":0.3032,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:59.082Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.34,"2":0.3,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.38,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.73,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.9400000000000001,"1":0.06,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.7,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:05:59.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-16","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":22,"church":27,"people":60,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.17,"people":0.7,"treasury":0.09},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.02,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-16,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:01.085Z","v":3,"id":"f9d183b5-1d06-412b-95d2-da9ea21f32bd","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2804774024128567,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.98,"year":19,"after":{"army":12,"church":25,"people":52,"treasury":73},"blend":0.7084,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:01.085Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.42,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.73,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.39999999999999997,"1":0.38,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.17,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":259},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:01.344Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":20,"church":28,"people":64,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.66,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.01,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":259},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:03.085Z","v":3,"id":"28c2264a-23f1-491d-8cd0-d2ab49cdb15a","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5912795668283533,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0,"year":20,"after":{"army":8,"church":25,"people":51,"treasury":73},"blend":0.27440000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:03.085Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:03.270Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":12,"church":25,"people":52,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.95,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.93,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:05.098Z","v":3,"id":"ced5a3a2-3423-4944-8c50-34584886e55c","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4413560183886165,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.94,"year":21,"after":{"army":3,"church":24,"people":49,"treasury":71},"blend":0.6768,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:05.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:05.262Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":8,"church":25,"people":51,"treasury":73},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.82,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.79},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.95,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:07.083Z","v":3,"id":"4d4a808b-6290-419e-8159-91d1e16900ac","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.009214627544197995,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.9,"year":22,"after":{"army":0,"church":19,"people":48,"treasury":66},"blend":0.6508,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:07.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.53,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:07.235Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Margarethe I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"44212268-976f-403e-b8dd-64b2778c6a72","before":{"army":3,"church":24,"people":49,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.54,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.25,"people":1.96,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2709,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:09.092Z","v":3,"id":"f1287c8a-9cd7-42f6-88fe-1746930acc32","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3020728539152491,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":45},"blend":0.5545,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:09.092Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:09.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.9,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.07,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:11.085Z","v":3,"id":"4b76a51b-dbfc-4471-88d9-85362d506495","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.16963887607805495,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.15,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":60,"treasury":40},"blend":0.456,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:11.085Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.52,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.34,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.26,"3":0.68,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:11.312Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+7"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":49,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.41,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.61,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:13.083Z","v":3,"id":"48af02d6-7263-47e6-b469-91c0f6dd1325","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2423265390989271,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":62,"treasury":45},"blend":0.0045000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:13.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":60,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.74,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.73,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.67,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:13.262Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":60,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-13","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":60,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.91,"church":1.66,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.01,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:15.085Z","v":3,"id":"3deaa2e3-6f95-429c-8477-d52e1abec20b","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.46760456395086325,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":40},"blend":0.5545,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:15.085Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":62,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.73,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:15.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":62,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":62,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.61,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.23,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:17.080Z","v":3,"id":"7bc84ac5-c322-4f1c-b628-3430e6c12418","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.32424284272612525,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.22,"year":5,"after":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":58,"treasury":42},"blend":0.1255,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:17.080Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.59,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.52,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:17.266Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":232}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":47,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":0.74,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.13,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":232,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:19.084Z","v":3,"id":"8abfbd6b-85e2-40a3-ad9d-1d4324c05092","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7523114551478574,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":59,"people":62,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5635,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:19.084Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":58,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.75,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":342},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:19.425Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":58,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.86,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.13,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":342},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:21.087Z","v":3,"id":"d9fd68c8-0efe-409d-b6bd-aaff44efe5c2","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.12432629441445253,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":43},"blend":0.576,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:21.087Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.15,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.67,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:21.285Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:23.083Z","v":3,"id":"cef02742-4d73-405b-9c61-d0cacc96fb01","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.42144819564562463,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.2,"year":8,"after":{"army":57,"church":54,"people":47,"treasury":40},"blend":0.14150000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:23.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":51,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.29,"3":0.7,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.34,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:23.290Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":48,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.75,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.69,"church":1.79,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":9,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":8,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:25.084Z","v":3,"id":"db8507da-e0cb-4854-8f10-c9d45d4ae9fc","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6392715981067585,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":58,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":40},"blend":0.559,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:25.084Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":47,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:25.301Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":47,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":57,"church":54,"people":47,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.93,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.07,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2580,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:27.083Z","v":3,"id":"4a593bb7-0d28-41db-9c41-801993220b63","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.4650625881285584,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.95,"year":10,"after":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"blend":0.617,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:27.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:27.286Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"-2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":58,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.56,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.05},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.18,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:29.080Z","v":3,"id":"51276429-6be2-480a-9975-85500b0b1227","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8985924374243641,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":11,"after":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"blend":0.0045000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:29.080Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.94,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9400000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:29.248Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.97,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.94,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:31.097Z","v":3,"id":"57269547-4e31-4053-8065-3087bede8af8","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.41,"mock":false,"roll":0.29437490538628364,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":55,"church":51,"people":40,"treasury":45},"blend":0.7345,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:31.097Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.55,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.67,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:31.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":43,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.82,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.15},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.93,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.18}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:33.098Z","v":3,"id":"329b7d5c-4949-40b5-9f2a-0528c034c7dd","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9803153684545416,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0,"year":13,"after":{"army":55,"church":54,"people":47,"treasury":51},"blend":0.0045000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:33.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":40,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.76,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.79,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.78,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.55,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:33.338Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":40,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:35.098Z","v":3,"id":"0f97020a-894d-4dda-810e-3acbf529d02d","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.24947399574018903,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0,"year":14,"after":{"army":54,"church":55,"people":48,"treasury":49},"blend":0.441,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:35.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.3,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.53,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.38,"2":0.12,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.16,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:35.255Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:37.093Z","v":3,"id":"765f1d43-7e26-45c5-a391-9380f0834a85","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.22107338797710563,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.23,"year":15,"after":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":39},"blend":0.23000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:37.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":48,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":54,"church":55,"people":48,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.88,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.96,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.95}},"tokens":2570,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:39.081Z","v":3,"id":"219cb709-3577-4b22-a933-0968b0cfd290","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6180002211777127,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":16,"after":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":71,"treasury":40},"blend":0.5489999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:39.081Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.34,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.75,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.74,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.12,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.61,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.24,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:39.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":50,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.49,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.14,"people":2.83,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:41.098Z","v":3,"id":"adbe8129-ef23-4e9e-a956-a1ec325624e4","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.03216203236404791,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":41},"blend":0.685,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:41.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":71,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.25,"3":0.72,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.57,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:41.325Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":71,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":71,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.47,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.68,"people":2.39,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.39}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:43.089Z","v":3,"id":"9733c22e-b466-42df-8b01-7b5a54573509","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.42212283337528755,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.92,"year":18,"after":{"army":49,"church":52,"people":68,"treasury":38},"blend":0.5195000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:43.089Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":69,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:43.250Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":69,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.84,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.01,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:45.100Z","v":3,"id":"68b713d9-5178-47c9-8b31-1904f282fa3e","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.16860977514039788,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.96,"year":19,"after":{"army":39,"church":38,"people":56,"treasury":59},"blend":0.5505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:45.100Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.76,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.27,"4":0.69}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:45.252Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-15","people":"-13","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":49,"church":52,"people":68,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":0.77,"people":0.9,"treasury":3.64},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":2.57,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-14,"people":-12,"treasury":21},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-13,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:47.098Z","v":3,"id":"e830c4f5-245d-4049-8e35-a416ae9e4e63","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9873559158173146,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.1,"year":20,"after":{"army":40,"church":36,"people":58,"treasury":66},"blend":0.07300000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:47.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":56,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.15,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.53,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.39,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.44,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:47.290Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":56,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"+6"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-3","church":"+5","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":39,"church":38,"people":56,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":2.42,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.71,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:49.101Z","v":3,"id":"e63e3d5e-0dd2-4424-9905-93de2256a86b","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8881281859747523,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":52,"church":38,"people":64,"treasury":57},"blend":0.5680000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:49.101Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":58,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.91,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.5,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.35,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:49.326Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":58,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":40,"church":36,"people":58,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.75,"people":1.4,"treasury":2.28},"right":{"army":2.9,"church":2.06,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":12,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":11,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:51.099Z","v":3,"id":"49cec76b-c4da-494e-a38f-e3003a759314","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.32896522230312875,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.98,"year":22,"after":{"army":42,"church":30,"people":55,"treasury":51},"blend":0.548,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:51.099Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":64,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.44,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.57,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.45,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:51.309Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":64,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":52,"church":38,"people":64,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.27,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.5,"church":2.37,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":6,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:53.083Z","v":3,"id":"6e019f84-dfa9-4117-8598-afbc3313528a","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.859925677677918,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":23,"after":{"army":43,"church":31,"people":67,"treasury":41},"blend":0.6130000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:53.083Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":55,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.25,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:53.260Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":55,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":42,"church":30,"people":55,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.81,"people":1.24,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.96,"people":2.88,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:55.085Z","v":3,"id":"284e8da2-a918-4031-85d9-4babfaa8d6c3","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.8020671928661964,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.82,"year":24,"after":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":79,"treasury":32},"blend":0.505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:55.085Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.7,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.53,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.82,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:55.232Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-10"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":43,"church":31,"people":67,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.65,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.12,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:57.104Z","v":3,"id":"4e190820-5a2f-456b-9704-fec351924824","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2564603466730264,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0,"year":25,"after":{"army":43,"church":34,"people":82,"treasury":36},"blend":0.009000000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:57.104Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":79,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.59,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.83,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":250},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:57.353Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":79,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":79,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.92,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":250},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:06:59.110Z","v":3,"id":"3a8f8be8-446d-449c-8966-829569cfc226","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.5979442698326409,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":26,"after":{"army":41,"church":34,"people":76,"treasury":33},"blend":0.685,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:59.110Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.56,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.46,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:06:59.355Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":43,"church":34,"people":82,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.89,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.9,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:01.093Z","v":3,"id":"4650f7c1-911e-42f0-a5e5-f7e858fae1b8","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.4582323646088302,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.09,"year":27,"after":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":73,"treasury":40},"blend":0.12150000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:01.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":76,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.32,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.07,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.23,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.43,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:01.259Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":76,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"+4","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":41,"church":34,"people":76,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.81,"people":2.31,"treasury":0.97},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.81,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":4,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:03.089Z","v":3,"id":"8121087e-807d-49dd-a7c4-bc3d98a465fc","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.705180924783448,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.02,"year":28,"after":{"army":43,"church":34,"people":75,"treasury":36},"blend":0.015500000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:03.089Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":73,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.22,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.89,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:03.285Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":73,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":73,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.6,"people":1.05,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.99,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:05.088Z","v":3,"id":"11767f71-57f2-49bd-98fa-3572d6d4287c","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.8690786509316346,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.99,"year":29,"after":{"army":42,"church":35,"people":77,"treasury":42},"blend":0.9585,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:05.088Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":75,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1877,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.5,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:05.257Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":75,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":682,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":43,"church":34,"people":75,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":2.01,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.94,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2559,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:07.102Z","v":3,"id":"ecc589dd-4842-4c95-bcc7-af4256cfa2ff","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.013808299535476909,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.17,"year":30,"after":{"army":39,"church":31,"people":63,"treasury":38},"blend":0.10250000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:07.102Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":77,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.52,"2":0.14,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.51,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.46,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:07.282Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":77,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-15","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":42,"church":35,"people":77,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.61,"people":0.78,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.21,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:09.103Z","v":3,"id":"44159a77-30a6-4fbd-8c62-0de419ff093a","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.26963658302981575,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.7,"year":31,"after":{"army":37,"church":28,"people":61,"treasury":30},"blend":0.394,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:09.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":63,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.33,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.65,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.77,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.88,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":405},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:09.509Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":63,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":39,"church":31,"people":63,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.69,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.1,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":405},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:11.104Z","v":3,"id":"92f5e2bd-ac42-4a9d-9230-dc902a0ab4eb","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.860679936994881,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.94,"year":32,"after":{"army":39,"church":27,"people":69,"treasury":39},"blend":0.526,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:11.104Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":61,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.03,"3":0.54,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.31,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.32,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.28,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:11.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":61,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-9","church":"+9","people":"-12","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":37,"church":28,"people":61,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.72,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.8,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.68}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":9,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:13.100Z","v":3,"id":"5a7952d4-4a09-4bba-a043-71ff478356f4","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5557174790022734,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.87,"year":33,"after":{"army":40,"church":28,"people":70,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9195,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:13.100Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":69,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:13.269Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":69,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-7"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":39,"church":27,"people":69,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.01,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.78,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:15.104Z","v":3,"id":"da927ed8-d7b2-4aa7-b8d9-01cb0a093be8","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.693074213099663,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.21,"year":34,"after":{"army":42,"church":19,"people":75,"treasury":50},"blend":0.17400000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:15.104Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":70,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.02,"3":0.71,"4":0.11}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.34,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.28,"3":0.69,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:15.338Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":70,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-8","church":"+9","people":"-10","treasury":"-16"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":40,"church":28,"people":70,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":2.76,"people":1.16,"treasury":0.63},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.17,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":9,"people":-10,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:17.092Z","v":3,"id":"d67530cd-8e6e-4a14-810e-9305bfe6d1f3","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.21343040911176736,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.97,"year":35,"after":{"army":41,"church":29,"people":80,"treasury":40},"blend":0.9835,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:17.092Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.07,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.39,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:17.298Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+4","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-3","church":"-13","people":"0","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":42,"church":19,"people":75,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.78,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":0.9,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":10,"people":5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-13,"people":0,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:19.106Z","v":3,"id":"32fafedc-90ef-47a2-a69d-1f7ada0c1644","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.6783235270576171,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.9,"year":36,"after":{"army":36,"church":31,"people":62,"treasury":33},"blend":0.9405000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:19.106Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.23,"2":0.03,"3":0.49,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.42,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.3,"3":0.62,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.62,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:19.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"-19","treasury":"-8"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":41,"church":29,"people":80,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":2.11,"people":0.45,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.21,"people":2.62,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":-18,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":-19,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:21.107Z","v":3,"id":"b70c01aa-3389-4d08-ac74-fcc7e372fc07","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4516883979748074,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.33,"year":37,"after":{"army":37,"church":39,"people":68,"treasury":23},"blend":0.19500000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:21.107Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":62,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.23,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.7,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.64,"2":0.28,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.32,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.36,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.1,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:21.304Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":62,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Send grain":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":568}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":36,"church":31,"people":62,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.29,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.61,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2571,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":568,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:23.113Z","v":3,"id":"d16c9f31-08a3-463a-a25e-5d5c8338d56a","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4713162959942978,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.99,"year":38,"after":{"army":37,"church":33,"people":57,"treasury":18},"blend":0.5489999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:23.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":68,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.2,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.27,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.61,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:23.259Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":68,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+4","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":37,"church":39,"people":68,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.44,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.35,"church":2.44,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":4,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:25.102Z","v":3,"id":"c73e27f2-9494-4fad-baff-51011965d9bc","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3137261100813027,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.81,"year":39,"after":{"army":37,"church":30,"people":59,"treasury":16},"blend":0.45000000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:25.102Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.26,"2":0.59,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.21,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:25.305Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":37,"church":33,"people":57,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.67,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.72,"people":1.34,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:27.096Z","v":3,"id":"20015b3a-ae32-4002-918a-3a43d951c55f","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.002462525082618683,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.35,"year":40,"after":{"army":41,"church":25,"people":45,"treasury":13},"blend":0.1925,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:27.096Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.05,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.78,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.35,"2":0.26,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.42,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:27.252Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":37,"church":30,"people":59,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.29,"church":1.49,"people":0.78,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.23,"church":1.91,"people":2.67,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:29.088Z","v":3,"id":"88b5d312-8a0f-4e04-8fd8-b8bd6a25e994","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8399077094893639,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.01,"year":41,"after":{"army":36,"church":25,"people":45,"treasury":11},"blend":0.0055000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:29.088Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.36,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:29.268Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-19"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":41,"church":25,"people":45,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.51,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.4},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.94,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:31.088Z","v":3,"id":"b55f761a-1980-433d-bf98-3504aea266b7","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6987907166017808,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0,"year":42,"after":{"army":36,"church":31,"people":45,"treasury":9},"blend":0.009000000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:31.088Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.4,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:31.273Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":36,"church":25,"people":45,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.44,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.41,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:33.104Z","v":3,"id":"2ae3c167-1db7-4d55-89e3-2a93a95b889d","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.442533621881148,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.3,"year":43,"after":{"army":35,"church":29,"people":51,"treasury":9},"blend":0.1695,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:33.104Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.59,"2":0.25,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.26,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.36,"2":0.17,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.41,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:33.255Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"+5","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":36,"church":31,"people":45,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.32,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.79,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":5,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:35.095Z","v":3,"id":"934684a9-9679-459f-9d1b-0d3c6a33f1cf","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5153864921779789,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.07,"year":44,"after":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":41,"treasury":11},"blend":0.04300000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:35.095Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":51,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.38,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.09,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.26,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.46,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:35.271Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":51,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"+1"},"Hang him":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":35,"church":29,"people":51,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":2.32,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":1.48,"people":1.11,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:37.106Z","v":3,"id":"3a391c77-1d84-4bf1-8c86-6737624349fb","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.00834702728526926,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.75,"year":45,"after":{"army":28,"church":25,"people":30,"treasury":2},"blend":0.41250000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:37.106Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.09,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.26,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.39,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.66,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.39,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:37.326Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":41,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.98,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.54,"people":1.73,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:39.093Z","v":3,"id":"b17fc8a3-2343-4132-8663-7ac2bb8b36d1","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.45},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.89208166559626,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.03,"year":46,"after":{"army":28,"church":23,"people":27,"treasury":0},"blend":0.4665,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:39.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.46,"2":0.4,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.25,"2":0.07,"3":0.52,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.42,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":270},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:39.364Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+3"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"6eebd0d6-7fa7-499d-8288-030c72965ea6","before":{"army":28,"church":25,"people":30,"treasury":2},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.71,"people":1.54,"treasury":2.27},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.78,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":270},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:41.090Z","v":3,"id":"343e48a7-23b9-4c1e-af14-201d63cfe6f7","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5154673714063209,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.59,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"blend":0.3599,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:41.090Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:41.245Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":684,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:43.084Z","v":3,"id":"f48aaf17-471e-4d75-96fa-2cac72a6e910","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.38544448903314943,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":39,"people":41,"treasury":65},"blend":0.6451,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:43.084Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1888,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.9,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.29,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.5,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.75,"4":0.2}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:43.286Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-11","treasury":"+13"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":0.93,"people":1.08,"treasury":3.12},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.65,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":-10,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:45.176Z","v":3,"id":"2753a8f6-4a12-4550-97e4-ed9a7fe98276","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.18949721094990246,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":42,"church":24,"people":26,"treasury":87},"blend":0.6255999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:45.176Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":41,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.64,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.59,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.39,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.49,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.2,"4":0.78}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:45.361Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":41,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-16","people":"-16","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":51,"church":39,"people":41,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":0.65,"people":0.69,"treasury":3.72},"right":{"army":2.25,"church":2.52,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-15,"people":-15,"treasury":22},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-16,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:47.137Z","v":3,"id":"3ba80eba-84cb-41b7-9083-f51c67e2a3de","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.33388972624285707,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":22,"people":14,"treasury":96},"blend":0.61,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:47.137Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.61,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.88,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.17,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.56,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:47.293Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-7"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-13","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":42,"church":24,"people":26,"treasury":87},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.08,"church":1.73,"people":0.89,"treasury":2.7},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.03,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:49.091Z","v":3,"id":"95b9c6f4-b37f-4e6f-8548-dd0cad7d46a6","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.31,"mock":false,"roll":0.8480651066089864,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.9,"year":5,"after":{"army":46,"church":30,"people":5,"treasury":96},"blend":0.6699,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:49.091Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":96},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.76,"2":0.05,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.23,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.07,"3":0.72,"4":0.04}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.71,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.24,"3":0.5,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.39,"3":0.25,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:49.276Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":96},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"+1","church":"+7","people":"-10","treasury":"-1"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":44,"church":22,"people":14,"treasury":96},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.23,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.62,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":2,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":-10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.37}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:51.107Z","v":3,"id":"081b1136-d2ef-41c0-8136-352b49efbf1c","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4318529232089694,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":44,"church":23,"people":0,"treasury":100},"blend":0.61,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:51.107Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":96},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.35,"2":0.45,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.48,"2":0.03,"3":0.24,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.37,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.31,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.3,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.1,"2":0.1,"3":0.53,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:51.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":96},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Jocasta IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"+6"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 96: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7c32ced5-6850-4ecf-8b8a-fe3fc691dd4b","before":{"army":46,"church":30,"people":5,"treasury":96},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.31,"people":0.38,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.17,"people":2.46,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-18,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:53.106Z","v":3,"id":"fbd605b6-397c-4591-8963-6272c865f9c3","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.9284951203536467,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":59,"people":56,"treasury":51},"blend":0.4837,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:53.106Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.45,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.29,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.53,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:53.297Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"+1","church":"+8","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"0","church":"-6","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.52,"people":1.8,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.66,"people":2.44,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":2,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:55.106Z","v":3,"id":"5f169d6e-4c11-4c8c-bc6f-7ef3e233f53f","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.45,"mock":false,"roll":0.5972709503616211,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":52,"treasury":56},"blend":0.2745,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:55.106Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":56,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.83,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.16,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.3,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.16,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.33,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:55.311Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":56,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-2","church":"+10","people":"+7","treasury":"-8"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":52,"church":59,"people":56,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":2.83,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.78,"people":1.56,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.09}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:57.108Z","v":3,"id":"84319dc3-3462-442d-9d8c-4908783cd214","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.6,"mock":false,"roll":0.8286162174616667,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.09,"year":3,"after":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":49,"treasury":63},"blend":0.4011,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:57.108Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.39,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.07,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.24,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.5,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:57.311Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":52,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.98,"people":2.42,"treasury":0.99},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.73,"people":1.66,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.19}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:07:59.109Z","v":3,"id":"495395a7-776f-4a9b-9b46-5b45518d7f4e","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7530611213555125,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":54,"church":57,"people":51,"treasury":64},"blend":0.3961,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:59.109Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":49,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.72,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:07:59.296Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":49,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":49,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":2.1,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.06,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:01.089Z","v":3,"id":"c246701e-6258-4a0c-959d-844cbc6cb2dc","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.38106399280842806,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":41,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3961,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:01.089Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":51,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.69,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.87,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.46,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:01.300Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":51,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":54,"church":57,"people":51,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.73,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.14,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:03.110Z","v":3,"id":"0a1068fc-c55b-4ed2-becb-5747225e294f","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.1414166118306941,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.84,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":52,"people":30,"treasury":65},"blend":0.3886,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:03.110Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":41,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.73,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.96,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.61,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:03.281Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":41,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"-8"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":41,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.66,"people":1.01,"treasury":2.33},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.15,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:05.110Z","v":3,"id":"345bd17b-5254-4cc5-97c3-972a5ca3d8e2","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3536501076132128,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":40,"church":50,"people":25,"treasury":70},"blend":0.4144,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:05.110Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":30,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.9,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.39,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:05.310Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":30,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":50,"church":52,"people":30,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.06,"church":1.71,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.31},"right":{"army":2.88,"church":1.99,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:07.102Z","v":3,"id":"99bca08f-82d1-43ec-9095-4c644f856294","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.47,"mock":false,"roll":0.07589655268926254,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.22,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":53,"people":21,"treasury":76},"blend":0.37249999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:07.102Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":25,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.52,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.45,"2":0.27,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.61,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.16,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:07.306Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":25,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-5","treasury":"+5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":40,"church":50,"people":25,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":2.16,"people":1.61,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.66,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.84}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":-4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.06}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:09.089Z","v":3,"id":"925367da-60a1-4fb5-b349-c98537808449","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6594426488522616,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.93,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":54,"people":22,"treasury":77},"blend":0.3932,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:09.089Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":21,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:09.292Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":21,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":38,"church":53,"people":21,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.84,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:11.093Z","v":3,"id":"23de36e8-4b81-4938-81bc-d668026e4498","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.48700425357831545,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":40,"church":56,"people":24,"treasury":79},"blend":0.4144,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:11.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":22,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:11.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":22,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":39,"church":54,"people":22,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.84,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.05,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:13.107Z","v":3,"id":"153631f6-97cb-4993-8f92-69dee75e89c7","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.9956270654737709,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":36,"treasury":69},"blend":0.4449,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:13.107Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":24,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.88,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.26,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:13.291Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":24,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":40,"church":56,"people":24,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.82,"people":1.24,"treasury":2.45},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:15.093Z","v":3,"id":"4e323c23-29fa-4a94-8e0c-7eef7e79ad4a","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6635179722528943,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.99,"year":12,"after":{"army":43,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":68},"blend":0.3983,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:15.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":36,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.56,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.3,"2":0.03,"3":0.5,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.81,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.69,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.38,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:15.270Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":36,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":2.01,"people":0.62,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.16,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:17.091Z","v":3,"id":"e42748f9-6995-48e7-befc-ca5e70951358","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.01328221911426719,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.98,"year":13,"after":{"army":43,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":75},"blend":0.9617,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:17.091Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":47,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1874,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.46,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:17.340Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":679,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":43,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":68},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":2,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.95,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2553,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:19.095Z","v":3,"id":"63505b4f-e52b-443a-8c20-65b5e617abfd","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6021617877362768,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.23,"year":14,"after":{"army":45,"church":50,"people":52,"treasury":72},"blend":0.0958,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:19.095Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.3,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.67,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.56,"2":0.26,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.59,"2":0.24,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:19.281Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:21.096Z","v":3,"id":"e41c847e-2460-4de8-9f17-b7c372e95173","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.008773813951186815,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":41,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":72},"blend":0.4083,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:21.096Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":45,"church":50,"people":52,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.85,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.08,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:23.094Z","v":3,"id":"9e1a2e25-baa7-4d3d-be5e-fe1ae4295e33","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.11305876105516588,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.01,"year":16,"after":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":81},"blend":0.0344,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:23.094Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.06,"3":0.61,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.86,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.23,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.35,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.52,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.37,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:23.269Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-13","church":"+6","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":227}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":41,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.94,"church":2.5,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.52},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.36,"people":2.64,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":9,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":227,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":6,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:25.094Z","v":3,"id":"593d7520-bbed-4f0d-b62d-a41e78087161","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.54,"mock":false,"roll":0.10222840537198863,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.98,"year":17,"after":{"army":38,"church":37,"people":45,"treasury":68},"blend":0.7116,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:25.094Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.33,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.28,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.71,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.15,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.35,"2":0.1,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.19,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:25.291Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-14"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.53,"people":0.97,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.12,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.07}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:27.098Z","v":3,"id":"17201d23-e035-4f3e-bfa5-5e61cb44eeda","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.6513403208899815,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":18,"after":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":63},"blend":0.47540000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:27.098Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":45,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:27.290Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":45,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":38,"church":37,"people":45,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.84,"people":1.66,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.97,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:29.095Z","v":3,"id":"316884c4-8a0b-4ac6-847f-7972811075f4","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.01601382743089874,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3961,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:29.095Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":44,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.91,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:29.282Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":44,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.94,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.01,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:31.099Z","v":3,"id":"2a5f63c9-9990-412e-b7bc-58c66ee6c9d1","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.32732283390301475,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.94,"year":20,"after":{"army":39,"church":34,"people":39,"treasury":62},"blend":0.45809999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:31.099Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":44,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.73,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.28,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":269},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:31.368Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":44,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.57,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.14,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":269},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:33.103Z","v":3,"id":"9cc39dca-8c26-446b-850e-c00ab690ee6c","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.5868538329053827,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.16,"year":21,"after":{"army":40,"church":36,"people":42,"treasury":63},"blend":0.6419,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:33.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":39,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.83,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:33.302Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":39,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":39,"church":34,"people":39,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":2.06,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.85,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:35.097Z","v":3,"id":"23cd3a57-e2a3-4efc-9f96-148fa7ff57e6","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.5827125687422103,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.7,"year":22,"after":{"army":41,"church":34,"people":46,"treasury":64},"blend":0.7853999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:35.097Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.72,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.23,"3":0.74,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:35.283Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":40,"church":36,"people":42,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.72,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.79,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.71}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:37.093Z","v":3,"id":"401cd226-4bdf-4fbd-bd30-99253f03463a","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7255788718742051,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.99,"year":23,"after":{"army":46,"church":39,"people":58,"treasury":64},"blend":0.3922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:37.093Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":46,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.23,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.29,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.63,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":230},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:37.322Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":41,"church":34,"people":46,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.4,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":2.36,"church":2.33,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":5,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":230},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":4,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:39.116Z","v":3,"id":"e617fc2a-3d08-4f16-b844-1168d8230b65","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.9502889960223941,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.9,"year":24,"after":{"army":47,"church":31,"people":70,"treasury":65},"blend":0.40590000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:39.116Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":58,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.28,"2":0.03,"3":0.56,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.11,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":251},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:39.367Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":46,"church":39,"people":58,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":2.35,"people":0.82,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.24,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":251},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:41.109Z","v":3,"id":"97f31750-c874-4133-84bf-c6dc16065809","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.0760546147391723,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.66,"year":25,"after":{"army":45,"church":32,"people":60,"treasury":62},"blend":0.3672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:41.109Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":70,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.39,"2":0.08,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.53,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.35,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:41.257Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":70,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"0","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-11","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":47,"church":31,"people":70,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.02,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.27,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-10,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:43.113Z","v":3,"id":"bbe3ccdd-17c1-4fd8-9ae7-3c34a8220902","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.08153211552652073,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.06,"year":26,"after":{"army":43,"church":36,"people":73,"treasury":60},"blend":0.6029,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:43.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.59,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.53,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.32,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.93,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.28,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.32,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:43.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-3"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":45,"church":32,"people":60,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.24,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.39,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:45.110Z","v":3,"id":"73c17bb9-4c0e-4e17-b1ec-ebda23e67ad0","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7025683766635202,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.2,"year":27,"after":{"army":44,"church":37,"people":82,"treasury":57},"blend":0.09020000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:45.110Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":73,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.9,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.25,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.1,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.44,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:45.331Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":73,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":43,"church":36,"people":73,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.73,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.98,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:47.105Z","v":3,"id":"6c03d67f-3390-467a-a991-2793b08dfa6d","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.10563573057594278,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.06,"year":28,"after":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":74,"treasury":56},"blend":0.0234,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:47.105Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.8,"2":0.04,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.16,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.04,"3":0.76,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.37,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:47.333Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-2"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":44,"church":37,"people":82,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.13,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.62,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":-8,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:49.111Z","v":3,"id":"547638cf-fdfd-4080-89f8-569223781abe","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5601968950217056,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0,"year":29,"after":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":74,"treasury":54},"blend":0.6039,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:49.111Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":74,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.59,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:49.314Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":74,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":74,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.93,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.89,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:51.113Z","v":3,"id":"7d937ac9-d400-41c5-a872-b2bf85ce31ac","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6148203653419073,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.01,"year":30,"after":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":78,"treasury":55},"blend":0.0161,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:51.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":74,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.77,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:51.294Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":74,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":45,"church":45,"people":74,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.67,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.03,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:53.102Z","v":3,"id":"45eac062-dfa1-4b8f-bb7f-fb770d1a6282","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3382877430845066,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.98,"year":31,"after":{"army":34,"church":45,"people":63,"treasury":79},"blend":0.40659999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:53.102Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":78,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.8,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.62,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.62,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.25,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.95}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.6,"3":0.11,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":425},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:53.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":78,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":78,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.96,"church":1.83,"people":0.67,"treasury":3.9},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2,"people":2.72,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-15,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":425},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:55.101Z","v":3,"id":"1f251d38-1223-4657-bea0-8bb27d816b0c","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.2574742483400909,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.17,"year":32,"after":{"army":35,"church":50,"people":76,"treasury":75},"blend":0.6092000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:55.101Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":63,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:55.267Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":63,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":34,"church":45,"people":63,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":2.34,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.53,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:57.103Z","v":3,"id":"113c8048-4437-4a24-a7ae-77b9ab84d8b0","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.025680907945329512,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":33,"after":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":75,"treasury":66},"blend":0.9594999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:57.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":76,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.44,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.5,"2":0.22,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.24,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:57.240Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":76,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+2"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":35,"church":50,"people":76,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.93,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.25,"church":1.79,"people":1.57,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:08:59.103Z","v":3,"id":"5d3bbccc-3bf2-454f-bfd6-1b82ea032261","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.24979430089379995,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.96,"year":34,"after":{"army":25,"church":37,"people":62,"treasury":86},"blend":0.41100000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:59.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":75,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.69,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.73,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.31,"4":0.66}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:08:59.295Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":75,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"+19"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":75,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":0.83,"people":0.84,"treasury":3.61},"right":{"army":2.24,"church":2.51,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-13,"people":-13,"treasury":20},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":19},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:01.110Z","v":3,"id":"ac43e6ed-9aee-4a03-b29a-fba90ead3365","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.7905807434633625,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.92,"year":35,"after":{"army":23,"church":36,"people":61,"treasury":83},"blend":0.4991,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:01.110Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":86},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:01.287Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":86},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":25,"church":37,"people":62,"treasury":86},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":2.01,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.83,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:03.102Z","v":3,"id":"4449582b-10d3-4927-bc9d-916686845395","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6721954762551927,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.52,"year":36,"after":{"army":25,"church":31,"people":64,"treasury":84},"blend":0.215,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:03.102Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1958,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.79,"1":0.16,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.11,"2":0.05,"3":0.59,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.61,"2":0.14,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.34,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.71,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.21,"3":0.55,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:03.279Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":23,"church":36,"people":61,"treasury":83},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.28,"church":2.69,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.49,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2718,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-5,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:05.103Z","v":3,"id":"260b54a7-8a35-4939-a7b9-87bb31fdda5e","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.48,"mock":false,"roll":0.5037363648926994,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.8,"year":37,"after":{"army":25,"church":24,"people":45,"treasury":82},"blend":0.6048,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:05.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.19,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.56,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.65,"1":0.35,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.65,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.84,"4":0.09}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.36,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.07,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:05.311Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":25,"church":31,"people":64,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.36,"people":0.36,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":2.15,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.04}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:07.103Z","v":3,"id":"08ee4d7a-1e28-434a-9649-0768b28465bf","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.8397910567532623,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.26,"year":38,"after":{"army":18,"church":25,"people":55,"treasury":84},"blend":0.7053,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:07.103Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.04,"3":0.63,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.74,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.14,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.38,"3":0.3,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.5,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:07.285Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+5","church":"-3","people":"-15","treasury":"0"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":25,"church":24,"people":45,"treasury":82},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.41,"church":1.72,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.3,"church":2.01,"people":2.77,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-3,"people":-15,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:09.119Z","v":3,"id":"81ccdb57-8b3f-416e-b5c5-3a1ba308c98a","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8269996073763792,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.01,"year":39,"after":{"army":24,"church":21,"people":49,"treasury":80},"blend":0.0161,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:09.119Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.67,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.18,"3":0.57,"4":0.04}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.55,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.53,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.47,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.28,"2":0.41,"3":0.14,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":254},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:09.373Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-5"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":18,"church":25,"people":55,"treasury":84},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.9,"people":1.69,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":2.41,"church":1.58,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":254},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":5,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:11.116Z","v":3,"id":"ada30be4-2aed-4216-abdb-3e8fc64fe100","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.43757491805876114,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0,"year":40,"after":{"army":25,"church":23,"people":58,"treasury":74},"blend":0.549,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:11.116Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.9,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.28,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:11.273Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-7"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:13.123Z","v":3,"id":"ae7394ae-74ac-4a8a-93d6-98fdbaff9f5f","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.909653579549802,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.03,"year":41,"after":{"army":21,"church":22,"people":59,"treasury":79},"blend":0.0971,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:13.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.31,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.71,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.39,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:13.254Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:15.123Z","v":3,"id":"99295587-2f60-416d-bf66-004a46f02a59","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.04591889078981404,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0,"year":42,"after":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":56,"treasury":78},"blend":0.0061,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:15.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.41,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:15.299Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":21,"church":22,"people":59,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.44,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":1.77,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:17.111Z","v":3,"id":"8f7ec8e1-c987-4b40-b818-ca879eadadfd","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9427638139001153,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.91,"year":43,"after":{"army":17,"church":21,"people":66,"treasury":75},"blend":0.35490000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:17.111Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.64,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.56,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.19,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.04,"3":0.8,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:17.281Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":767,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":56,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.22,"people":0.71,"treasury":2.79},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.03,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:19.125Z","v":3,"id":"a73e6089-bc02-42b1-9613-7be704d167d4","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5437467627547119,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.77,"year":44,"after":{"army":16,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":78},"blend":0.3003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:19.125Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.56,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.63,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.5,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.67,"2":0.2,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:19.320Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-15","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Decline":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":17,"church":21,"people":66,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.73,"church":1.72,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.94,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.16}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:21.121Z","v":3,"id":"a4d71f46-62d5-4d35-83c7-45a019d12fcc","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.09870796053807185,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.86,"year":45,"after":{"army":6,"church":26,"people":62,"treasury":79},"blend":0.33540000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:21.121Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.62,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.32,"2":0.37,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.05,"3":0.58,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.64,"2":0.05,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.37,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:21.320Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-11","church":"+4","people":"-8","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":16,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":78},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.32,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.21,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":5,"people":-7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":4,"people":-8,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:23.125Z","v":3,"id":"9c7af176-1e40-4a18-80ea-4a6056f5bdf8","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.12260777367441733,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0,"year":46,"after":{"army":4,"church":33,"people":62,"treasury":79},"blend":0.061,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:23.125Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.31,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:23.296Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":6,"church":26,"people":62,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.29,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":2.5,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:25.122Z","v":3,"id":"44dee18d-5ae5-433a-837d-be98da0d8dad","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.44229834858129013,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0,"year":47,"after":{"army":3,"church":34,"people":64,"treasury":82},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:25.122Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.33,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.21,"2":0.58,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.75,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:25.275Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":4,"church":33,"people":62,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.7,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.32},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.98,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:27.123Z","v":3,"id":"93d0d86e-74c7-4b85-b969-dfa5d6d3aa42","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.9246372594143377,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.05,"year":48,"after":{"army":0,"church":33,"people":66,"treasury":78},"blend":0.13540000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:27.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Godric V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.28,"2":0.05,"3":0.25,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.53,"2":0.33,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.55,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.56,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.3,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:27.284Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"78da5e79-53a2-43a5-83db-bed676afdcce","before":{"army":3,"church":34,"people":64,"treasury":82},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.01,"people":0.61,"treasury":0.5},"right":{"army":1.34,"church":1.86,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-12,"people":-17,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:29.105Z","v":3,"id":"f4917d74-6441-4991-9d3b-8af050474ab6","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7555422571479589,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":51},"blend":0.06899999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:29.105Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.46,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:29.349Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.42,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.44,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:31.124Z","v":3,"id":"4ac541b4-6417-4246-bbf3-2057c67b01de","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.45904665451537374,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.84,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":59,"people":64,"treasury":43},"blend":0.3708,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:31.124Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.96,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":261},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:31.385Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":50,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.77,"people":1,"treasury":2.34},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.13,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":261},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:33.123Z","v":3,"id":"5398c6c6-12ef-425c-8138-81385a65075a","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.791747986456413,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":60,"people":63,"treasury":36},"blend":0.4549,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:33.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.58,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:33.310Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":50,"church":59,"people":64,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.85,"people":1.68,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.96,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:35.122Z","v":3,"id":"11c78a21-7e70-4c65-a694-e201344bdfda","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8026816185288179,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":74,"treasury":33},"blend":0.32070000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:35.122Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":63,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.72,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.31,"2":0.04,"3":0.52,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.69,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.08,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.05,"3":0.83,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.38,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":284},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:35.406Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":63,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-9","church":"+1","people":"-15","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":51,"church":60,"people":63,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":2.08,"people":0.72,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.22,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":284},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:37.124Z","v":3,"id":"6253fbbd-731b-465e-9877-dc05629bfb71","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.39,"mock":false,"roll":0.3420781270853679,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.96,"year":5,"after":{"army":53,"church":48,"people":70,"treasury":35},"blend":0.5667,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:37.124Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":74,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.69,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:37.314Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":74,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":74,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.62,"people":1.59,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.13,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.21}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:39.123Z","v":3,"id":"d60bc883-156a-478f-a905-79fca9b67d21","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.18198081314200665,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":65,"treasury":40},"blend":0.37210000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:39.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":70,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.91,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.74,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.6,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.32,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:39.284Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":70,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":53,"church":48,"people":70,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.82,"people":1.54,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":2.89,"church":1.99,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:41.108Z","v":3,"id":"201a5769-22ef-4720-b3cb-f46878179f03","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7584988750329713,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.32,"year":7,"after":{"army":43,"church":50,"people":71,"treasury":42},"blend":0.10610000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:41.108Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":65,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.66,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:41.268Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":65,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":43,"church":47,"people":65,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":0.84,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.17,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:43.113Z","v":3,"id":"418fd071-7d2b-4949-b29b-c216c46b4441","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.21692310050005226,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.1,"year":8,"after":{"army":36,"church":51,"people":76,"treasury":31},"blend":0.23109999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:43.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.37,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.08,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.27,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.46,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:43.270Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":275}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":43,"church":50,"people":71,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.96,"people":2.36,"treasury":0.97},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.84,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":275,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.41}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:45.114Z","v":3,"id":"472addc5-5bf4-4263-9598-8cb9026f1026","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6828676888047671,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":78,"treasury":34},"blend":0.32380000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:45.114Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":76,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:45.285Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":36,"church":51,"people":76,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.79,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.09,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.16}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:47.113Z","v":3,"id":"39f26f95-588a-486c-8583-519b141409eb","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6512776910717688,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.72,"year":10,"after":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":91,"treasury":24},"blend":0.2508,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:47.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":78,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.19,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.42,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.68,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.29,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":3.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.87,"4":0.09}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:47.265Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":78,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-6","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":78,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.25,"people":0.3,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":2.26,"people":3.03,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-6,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:49.108Z","v":3,"id":"cd83ef6f-f465-46a1-87f7-68141d0e4ab4","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.34831730334757394,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":25,"church":49,"people":76,"treasury":23},"blend":0.30380000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:49.108Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.65,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.57,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.44,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.08,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.29,"2":0.05,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:49.311Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-9","people":"-16","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":91,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.12,"church":1.99,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.07},"right":{"army":1.34,"church":1.27,"people":0.66,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-16,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:51.123Z","v":3,"id":"9f700a25-7f44-4358-940c-611c5702a366","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.57,"mock":false,"roll":0.8865467446843611,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":23,"church":48,"people":85,"treasury":12},"blend":0.7033,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:51.123Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":76,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.08,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.28,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":222},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:51.345Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":76,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":25,"church":49,"people":76,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.89,"people":1.3,"treasury":2.5},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.85,"people":2.69,"treasury":0.99}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":222},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:53.108Z","v":3,"id":"686468dd-b9c9-4bc3-8752-0d52ad2ecb4b","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.9884697528685802,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":24,"church":50,"people":91,"treasury":11},"blend":0.931,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:53.108Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.72,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.44,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:53.269Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-2"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":23,"church":48,"people":85,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.77,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.28},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.1,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2718,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:55.133Z","v":3,"id":"fea6f21b-0845-46f8-bdf0-c1f21e6c2ba8","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.9840299953094467,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":90,"treasury":12},"blend":0.9931,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:55.133Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.31,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.23,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:55.288Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":24,"church":50,"people":91,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.46,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.6,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:57.129Z","v":3,"id":"ac28d84d-ac90-4643-9aee-6bac5ca6b76c","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7406725564388628,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0,"year":15,"after":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":86,"treasury":10},"blend":0.020699999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:57.129Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.93,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.31,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:57.278Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":90,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.96,"people":2.48,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.89,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:09:59.127Z","v":3,"id":"59d17da0-ce2f-4f70-8c47-668c788deda1","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.42416443437831197,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":25,"church":46,"people":85,"treasury":9},"blend":0.3652000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:59.127Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.55,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.65,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":280},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:09:59.407Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":86,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.97,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.99,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2712,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":280},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:01.124Z","v":3,"id":"c88d45c3-a34d-4a4e-b0de-73d9d14e6771","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.2707678770454902,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":24,"church":46,"people":86,"treasury":1},"blend":0.34450000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:01.124Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:01.341Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":25,"church":46,"people":85,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.94,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.95,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:03.121Z","v":3,"id":"43deccdc-e318-49b1-9abc-74611d56e4b0","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Ivo I","wisdom":0.69},"know":0.33,"mock":false,"roll":0.11280753703591895,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.68,"year":18,"after":{"army":22,"church":50,"people":77,"treasury":0},"blend":0.4385,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:03.121Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Ivo I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.68,"right":0.32}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.2,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.48,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.57,"2":0.21,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.34,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:03.319Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 69% of the time.","description":"Ivo I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdc6b25e-afb1-4979-af19-c80e2b785610","before":{"army":24,"church":46,"people":86,"treasury":1},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.26,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.38,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.19}},"tokens":2736,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.36,"prudenceConfidence":0.34}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:05.112Z","v":3,"id":"2e1acaba-7756-42b9-85dc-6f825aff06b0","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.9448279888351683,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.75,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":59},"blend":0.8652000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:05.112Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.25,"3":0.72,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:05.311Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+8"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.84,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.86,"people":1.37,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:07.108Z","v":3,"id":"88303b2a-0bc0-4061-8286-582bd2135e70","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.1140301666639072,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.95,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":38,"treasury":61},"blend":0.46359999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:07.108Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.75,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:07.323Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.61,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.17,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.62}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:09.113Z","v":3,"id":"f72eb9e3-e293-4b8e-b0da-c5c4734b359d","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3182906795593887,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.94,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":43,"people":34,"treasury":56},"blend":0.35119999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:09.113Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":38,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.51,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.7,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.17,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.59,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:09.331Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":38,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":38,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.72,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.06,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:11.116Z","v":3,"id":"20dc257c-0162-4e98-a399-bc4646b481e5","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.011301315707736181,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.06,"year":4,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":47,"treasury":54},"blend":0.6424,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:11.116Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.53,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.2,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.21,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.28,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:11.324Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:13.126Z","v":3,"id":"4c75db9a-b693-458d-9fbe-7fa242a1facc","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.772706759903951,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":49,"treasury":54},"blend":0.3664,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:13.126Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.92,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:13.277Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:15.129Z","v":3,"id":"f0154eec-31e6-4a1e-bb93-18e1eb2072d1","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.37522792887668666,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.25,"year":6,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":66},"blend":0.2564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:15.129Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":49,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.93,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.07,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:15.313Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":49,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":682,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":50,"church":48,"people":49,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":2.02,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.97,"people":1.75,"treasury":2.95}},"tokens":2562,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:17.133Z","v":3,"id":"c3b7fef6-9cd0-4827-84ff-c7d0d3d10d5a","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.1659630013786273,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.03,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":46,"treasury":72},"blend":0.0236,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:17.133Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.29,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.93,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.34,"3":0.54,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:17.351Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":47,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":47,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.91,"people":1.45,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.88,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:19.115Z","v":3,"id":"cd26813d-aaed-459e-9b00-4ab66c329b8c","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8498638364889433,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.98,"year":8,"after":{"army":50,"church":52,"people":58,"treasury":74},"blend":0.3592,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:19.115Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":46,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.36,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.76,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.81,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.09,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.67,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.3,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:19.298Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":46,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.52,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.99},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.16,"people":2.9,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:21.132Z","v":3,"id":"ad7b3208-4d7f-4a72-b6c4-471c162524fa","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6830628352207473,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":52,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":74},"blend":0.37279999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:21.132Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":58,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:21.370Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":58,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":50,"church":52,"people":58,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":2.05,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.05,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:23.129Z","v":3,"id":"139f1a16-f96b-45bf-a755-409420e3e3ca","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.038575708250810026,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":70},"blend":0.3792,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:23.129Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.76,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.78,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:23.327Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":52,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":74},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.86,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.1,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:25.129Z","v":3,"id":"686a8b93-ec21-48bf-b358-c6ba2e776382","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.42687401663512703,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":65,"treasury":72},"blend":0.3792,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:25.129Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":57,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.72,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.42,"3":0.5700000000000001,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:25.308Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":57,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-10","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.56,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.24,"people":2.55,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:27.125Z","v":3,"id":"c480cec7-ba72-438e-8264-8e666cd3c4f6","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.346352843591627,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.3,"year":12,"after":{"army":54,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":68},"blend":0.1208,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:27.125Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":65,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.29,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.67,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.21,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.52,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.48,"2":0.34,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:27.324Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":65,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":1759}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":65,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.49,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.06,"people":2.29,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":1759,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:29.128Z","v":3,"id":"a2bc52e6-42c1-432b-90f7-741dfdd0d65d","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.963932247441907,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":66,"church":60,"people":74,"treasury":59},"blend":0.3984,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:29.128Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.92,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.34,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.82,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:29.300Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":247}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":54,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.77,"people":1.55,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":2.91,"church":2.02,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":247,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:31.149Z","v":3,"id":"37eacea3-8442-40dd-aab9-9b862012046c","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.5740741773479849,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":67,"church":61,"people":74,"treasury":53},"blend":0.52,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:31.149Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":74,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":272},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:31.421Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":74,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":66,"church":60,"people":74,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.83,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.14},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.98,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":272},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.51}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:33.147Z","v":3,"id":"60e6409e-830c-431c-9667-9b4cfc1ada38","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.7095604918853722,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.03,"year":15,"after":{"army":58,"church":63,"people":84,"treasury":63},"blend":0.1452,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:33.147Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":74,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.49,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.22,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:33.356Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":74,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-8"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-10","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":67,"church":61,"people":74,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.8,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":1.14,"church":2.08,"people":2.71,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:35.137Z","v":3,"id":"74c411ab-6374-4c36-bfe2-de83f938b5c3","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.748676967330762,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.24,"year":16,"after":{"army":58,"church":64,"people":90,"treasury":60},"blend":0.7200000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:35.137Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.55,"2":0.28,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.63,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.7,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.23,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.17,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.42,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:35.349Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-15","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":58,"church":63,"people":84,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.36,"people":0.71,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.96,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:37.153Z","v":3,"id":"49ccc716-6273-4c94-9da1-2571b94acf14","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.550817552515459,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.02,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":62,"people":82,"treasury":68},"blend":0.5576,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:37.153Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.59,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.55,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.09,"3":0.7,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:37.294Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":90,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"+7"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":58,"church":64,"people":90,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.72,"people":1.23,"treasury":2.56},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.95,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:39.156Z","v":3,"id":"db4d68ee-7439-4e24-8c30-0285a910320d","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.30433446134690945,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0,"year":18,"after":{"army":46,"church":58,"people":73,"treasury":58},"blend":0.6272,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:39.156Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.2,"3":0.79,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:39.346Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":51,"church":62,"people":82,"treasury":68},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.56,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.19,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.77}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:41.155Z","v":3,"id":"4b4c70f5-b73b-4c49-b58f-8506f1e24620","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.5818578396547254,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.87,"year":19,"after":{"army":45,"church":60,"people":86,"treasury":50},"blend":0.4476,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:41.155Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":73,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.56,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:41.338Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":73,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+12","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":46,"church":58,"people":73,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.79,"people":1.01,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.05,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.57}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:43.157Z","v":3,"id":"b079c8bb-a46e-4865-be0b-2dd6a4d8be18","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4695459162616922,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.18,"year":20,"after":{"army":36,"church":45,"people":66,"treasury":39},"blend":0.6984,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:43.157Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.73,"1":0.26,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.71,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.43,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.84,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:43.346Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-10","church":"-16","people":"-21","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":45,"church":60,"people":86,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":0.63,"people":0.28,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.17,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2694,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-15,"people":-20,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-21,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:45.154Z","v":3,"id":"8400b234-beed-40db-9935-5663443cb518","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.4441810387454883,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":21,"after":{"army":36,"church":45,"people":77,"treasury":35},"blend":0.382,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:45.154Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":66,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.14,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:45.343Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":66,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":36,"church":45,"people":66,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.66,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.88,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:47.159Z","v":3,"id":"03374a56-dd8f-4cb5-8846-fd1517f88096","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.769771194344324,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":34,"church":45,"people":89,"treasury":24},"blend":0.488,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:47.159Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":77,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. 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Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.29,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:47.309Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":36,"church":45,"people":77,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.86,"people":1.31,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.93,"people":2.88,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.59}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:49.156Z","v":3,"id":"7f3d7ce2-ce36-4eb6-b081-b34cc79a5000","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.46128603940619883,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":23,"after":{"army":35,"church":44,"people":84,"treasury":16},"blend":0.3628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:49.156Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.48,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:49.329Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":723,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":34,"church":45,"people":89,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.01,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.87,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:51.153Z","v":3,"id":"0079b9e3-b69e-4c29-8503-0f8b688c4559","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6148594834346128,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.19,"year":24,"after":{"army":34,"church":37,"people":71,"treasury":23},"blend":0.0748,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:51.153Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.41,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.8,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.63,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.62,"2":0.28,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.28,"3":0.63,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:51.386Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"+6"},"Return it":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":786,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":35,"church":44,"people":84,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":2.33,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.33,"people":0.83,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2734,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:53.141Z","v":3,"id":"a3f2bdc4-8247-467e-a553-9be91a374bfe","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6378519871423749,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.92,"year":25,"after":{"army":38,"church":38,"people":80,"treasury":32},"blend":0.3376,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:53.141Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":71,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.73,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.05,"3":0.52,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.38,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.3,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.52,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.34,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:53.355Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":71,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+3","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-11","church":"+7","people":"-14","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":34,"church":37,"people":71,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":2.57,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.57},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.03,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":4,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":7,"people":-14,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:55.157Z","v":3,"id":"5ff2d4be-724a-4611-b7e5-d87c79a04992","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.3353243376966839,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.53,"year":26,"after":{"army":27,"church":27,"people":63,"treasury":20},"blend":0.8116,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:55.157Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.51,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.26,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.28,"2":0.19,"3":0.44,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.72,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.68,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:55.337Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-12","church":"-12","people":"-18","treasury":"-13"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":38,"church":38,"people":80,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":0.98,"people":0.53,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.13,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-11,"people":-17,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-12,"people":-18,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:57.159Z","v":3,"id":"44364885-00bf-4722-b9e2-c98af94e2a88","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.04826736206962967,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.02,"year":27,"after":{"army":27,"church":28,"people":67,"treasury":26},"blend":0.0072,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:57.159Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.4,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.42,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.47,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":276},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:57.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-12","church":"-13","people":"-17","treasury":"-24"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":27,"church":27,"people":63,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.97,"church":0.89,"people":0.59,"treasury":0.02},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.97,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":276},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-13,"people":-17,"treasury":-24},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:10:59.163Z","v":3,"id":"309004fc-6607-41cb-be19-329aadd6a02f","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.32380533749559914,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.04,"year":28,"after":{"army":28,"church":29,"people":71,"treasury":34},"blend":0.0208,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:59.163Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":67,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.41,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.36,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:10:59.372Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":67,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":27,"church":28,"people":67,"treasury":26},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.72,"people":1.16,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.98,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.55}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:01.164Z","v":3,"id":"e286017e-33b0-43a1-8a9c-64b5155d2a26","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.019114774817894142,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.97,"year":29,"after":{"army":30,"church":30,"people":75,"treasury":33},"blend":0.97,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:01.164Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":71,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.6,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.45,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.09,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.14,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:01.312Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":71,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":231}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":28,"church":29,"people":71,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":2.02,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.36,"church":1.5,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":231,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:03.162Z","v":3,"id":"c12d504e-03f5-47c8-895b-8deb75d50397","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3389881852919645,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":25,"church":27,"people":70,"treasury":32},"blend":0.37279999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:03.162Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":75,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.75,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:03.396Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":75,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:05.165Z","v":3,"id":"82b40573-a271-4fef-a225-405955de451f","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5769190497585739,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.92,"year":31,"after":{"army":26,"church":28,"people":71,"treasury":33},"blend":0.3504,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:05.165Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:05.414Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:07.150Z","v":3,"id":"3038fb4d-6e2e-4a12-b093-994bc7cc4ebd","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2693824179027906,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.05,"year":32,"after":{"army":27,"church":29,"people":72,"treasury":34},"blend":0.0308,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:07.150Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":71,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":26,"church":28,"people":71,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.76,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:09.171Z","v":3,"id":"127ce7c9-dd50-4480-ab28-ab548fb15312","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8792481675351052,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.96,"year":33,"after":{"army":30,"church":37,"people":78,"treasury":33},"blend":0.36479999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:09.171Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":72,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.2,"4":0.76}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:09.367Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":72,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-15","people":"-13","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":27,"church":29,"people":72,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":0.75,"people":0.91,"treasury":3.68},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":2.59,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":3,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-13,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:11.169Z","v":3,"id":"2274be3d-64cb-43e7-a320-6eb9e4cbe008","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.6732701108474806,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":1,"year":34,"after":{"army":31,"church":47,"people":85,"treasury":34},"blend":0.4048,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:11.169Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":78,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.28,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.22,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.48,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:11.348Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":78,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":30,"church":37,"people":78,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.34,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.72,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:13.170Z","v":3,"id":"9d01372d-498f-46dc-a202-c565feba2543","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.9153376403823026,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.23,"year":35,"after":{"army":40,"church":46,"people":81,"treasury":31},"blend":0.1212,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:13.170Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.31,"3":0.68,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.23,"2":0.19,"3":0.43,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.57,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":339},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:13.509Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-8"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+8","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":31,"church":47,"people":85,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.76,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.66,"church":1.83,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":9,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":339},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":8,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:15.172Z","v":3,"id":"d8cb483e-ca2b-4025-848f-83dbf995496d","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.06788138645140962,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.2,"year":36,"after":{"army":33,"church":55,"people":71,"treasury":15},"blend":0.6991999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:15.172Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.14,"2":0.02,"3":0.69,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.73,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.3,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.55,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.23,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:15.333Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-8","church":"+8","people":"-11","treasury":"-17"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":40,"church":46,"people":81,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":2.64,"people":1.07,"treasury":0.55},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.19,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":9,"people":-10,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":8,"people":-11,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:17.152Z","v":3,"id":"d0a995d5-d5b2-48cd-b6f1-ab90ee864ecd","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.08350824486759922,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0,"year":37,"after":{"army":32,"church":53,"people":67,"treasury":15},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:17.152Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.53,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.18,"2":0.06,"3":0.65,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.26,"2":0.09,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.25,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.13,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.49,"2":0.02,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.39999999999999997,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:17.360Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-8","church":"+5","people":"+1","treasury":"-15"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":33,"church":55,"people":71,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":2.4,"people":2.06,"treasury":0.71},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.73,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:19.167Z","v":3,"id":"ec84bca6-5b74-4786-813e-18e34f4adf37","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.54,"mock":false,"roll":0.3418404252784044,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.01,"year":38,"after":{"army":23,"church":53,"people":64,"treasury":11},"blend":0.3492,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:19.167Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.77,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.24,"3":0.5,"4":0.03}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.49,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.55,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.45,"2":0.29,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.4,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:19.327Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+3","church":"-6","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":32,"church":53,"people":67,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.89,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2.29,"church":1.49,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":3,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.08}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:21.172Z","v":3,"id":"c70e21be-6899-451a-981b-77f9a48c8ee2","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2058158471816749,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":39,"after":{"army":15,"church":46,"people":56,"treasury":5},"blend":0.3564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:21.172Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.71,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.51,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.53,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:21.370Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+2","church":"+5","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-9","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":23,"church":53,"people":64,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.31,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":2.38,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:23.172Z","v":3,"id":"2ba954fd-2f09-491e-8224-5e54d2d1f830","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf III","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.66,"mock":false,"roll":0.4117903757608856,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0,"year":40,"after":{"army":14,"church":47,"people":63,"treasury":0},"blend":0.42240000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:23.172Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":5},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.74,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.34,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.76,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:23.355Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":5},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Radulf III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c1f2e08c-d033-4d49-9cad-6ea8fb906fac","before":{"army":15,"church":46,"people":56,"treasury":5},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":2.02,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":1.78,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:25.171Z","v":3,"id":"e162600c-ca4b-49e4-b9ef-cc3c85c20c59","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9885906808297209,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.78,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":46,"people":52,"treasury":54},"blend":0.42000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:25.171Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.08,"3":0.72,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.29,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.49,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:25.312Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"+7","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.58,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.59,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":7,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:27.168Z","v":3,"id":"deb1c703-b9d1-455e-805f-3cd87dad7848","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.59,"mock":false,"roll":0.6895995386503753,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":59,"treasury":44},"blend":0.8031999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:27.168Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":52,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.91,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.31,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.31,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.82,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":311},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:27.479Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":52,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":50,"church":46,"people":52,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":2.94,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.02,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":12,"people":7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":311},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.19}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:29.158Z","v":3,"id":"38f296a7-2684-4953-a9e0-886d83cf4bb6","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.023701941384711267,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":0.44,"year":3,"after":{"army":46,"church":59,"people":56,"treasury":37},"blend":0.2384,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:29.158Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":59,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.27,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.55,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:29.318Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":59,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":59,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.98,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.19,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:31.161Z","v":3,"id":"c2c4eb09-e353-444d-b96f-6281e07e10ad","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6073299860025678,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.97,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":60,"treasury":39},"blend":0.5092,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:31.161Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":56,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.13,"3":0.66,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:31.405Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":56,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-10","church":"+7","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":46,"church":59,"people":56,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":2.62,"people":1.35,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.59,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":7,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:33.170Z","v":3,"id":"10a72e44-b33b-45ff-8627-22781eb5ceb8","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5726361348945961,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.42,"year":5,"after":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":64,"treasury":41},"blend":0.2376,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:33.170Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":60,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.7,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.56,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.39,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.36,"3":0.5,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.21,"3":0.51,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.68,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:33.320Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":60,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-11","church":"-11","people":"-17","treasury":"-14"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":272}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":60,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.08,"people":0.58,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2.4,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":272,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-11,"people":-17,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:35.174Z","v":3,"id":"b54c57c6-1cc9-432c-b67c-e790085e5e10","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.1220873699651912,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.95,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":82,"people":52,"treasury":23},"blend":0.5084,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:35.174Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":64,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.71,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.63,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.38,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.38,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.25,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":371},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:35.545Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":64,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+7","treasury":"+9"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-12","church":"+8","people":"-13","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":64,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":2.67,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.38},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.63,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":371},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":8,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:37.174Z","v":3,"id":"fb255f03-f736-4e4f-9a59-91b9a504fb85","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2605250847570151,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":31,"church":91,"people":38,"treasury":12},"blend":0.52,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:37.174Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.42,"4":0.31}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.11,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.47,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:37.300Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-8","church":"+8","people":"-15","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":306}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":38,"church":82,"people":52,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":2.66,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.12,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":9,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":306,"forecast":126},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":8,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:39.158Z","v":3,"id":"57afabe0-cca9-4ce6-96d5-db84c476af84","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.23585741294996576,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":24,"church":98,"people":24,"treasury":4},"blend":0.52,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:39.158Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":91,"danger":["church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Osric IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1963,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.17,"2":0.02,"3":0.38,"4":0.29}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.77,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.17,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.64,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.63,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:39.351Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":91,"danger":["church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-8","church":"+6","people":"-15","treasury":"-9"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":785,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":31,"church":91,"people":38,"treasury":12},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2.52,"people":0.77,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.18,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2748,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":7,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":6,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:41.157Z","v":3,"id":"f6040025-e258-493c-8e22-60f75806e320","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Osric IV","wisdom":0.48},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.1896658308636221,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":21,"church":100,"people":12,"treasury":0},"blend":0.52,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:41.157Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":98,"danger":["church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":4},"monarch":{"name":"Osric IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 48% of the time.","description":"Osric IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.12,"2":0.04,"3":0.32,"4":0.24}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.36,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.63,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.3,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:41.362Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":781,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"87b39686-2d0b-45ba-8ef1-abae24a8de66","before":{"army":24,"church":98,"people":24,"treasury":4},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.13,"people":0.92,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.25,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:43.162Z","v":3,"id":"29509d85-a78f-49a8-a225-00d59a5f2ee8","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.286790351351385,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":40,"church":35,"people":35,"treasury":39},"blend":0.6863999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:43.162Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.75,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.48,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.55,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.74,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.85,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.66,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:43.309Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"51eb2ed5-1114-4e1e-8278-e3b9ccf31100","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.06,"church":0.66,"people":0.65,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.19,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-16,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:45.163Z","v":3,"id":"de90ac1c-a4f8-4c60-99b9-78414f7351a9","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.05035012715833842,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":37,"church":25,"people":22,"treasury":27},"blend":0.6831999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:45.163Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":35,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.51,"2":0.13,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.37,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.8,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.39,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.33,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.79,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:45.384Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":35,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Send grain":{"army":"-3","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"51eb2ed5-1114-4e1e-8278-e3b9ccf31100","before":{"army":40,"church":35,"people":35,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.1,"people":0.81,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":2.55,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-3,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:47.189Z","v":3,"id":"bdcf770a-02dc-4be1-ac71-2d0ee497dc29","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.37,"mock":false,"roll":0.3547586348613381,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.01,"year":3,"after":{"army":44,"church":16,"people":24,"treasury":23},"blend":0.1252,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:47.189Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":22,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.31,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.07,"3":0.66,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.36,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.62,"2":0.06,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.4,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.65,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":259},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:47.448Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":22,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-11","church":"+6","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"},"Stand":{"army":"+6","church":"-10","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"51eb2ed5-1114-4e1e-8278-e3b9ccf31100","before":{"army":37,"church":25,"people":22,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":2.49,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":2.47,"church":1.2,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-9,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":259},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":6,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":6,"church":-10,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.25}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:49.174Z","v":3,"id":"e067801e-cf34-4dac-8e05-b27e7705c455","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.48702301579653495,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.84,"year":4,"after":{"army":42,"church":5,"people":14,"treasury":19},"blend":0.5711999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:49.174Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.65,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.63,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:49.379Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-3","church":"-12","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"51eb2ed5-1114-4e1e-8278-e3b9ccf31100","before":{"army":44,"church":16,"people":24,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":0.96,"people":1.06,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2672,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-12,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:51.181Z","v":3,"id":"e5b114a0-9c9d-4bfa-abee-bb2399e6b4a0","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4036765402046838,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.97,"year":5,"after":{"army":42,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":26},"blend":0.6628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:51.181Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":5,"danger":["church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.52,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.82,"1":0.18,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.7,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.23,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.58,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.02,"3":0.63,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.48,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:51.396Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":5,"danger":["church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-22","people":"-14","treasury":"+6"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":796,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"51eb2ed5-1114-4e1e-8278-e3b9ccf31100","before":{"army":42,"church":5,"people":14,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":0.19,"people":0.85,"treasury":2.54},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.75,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2741,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-21,"people":-13,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-22,"people":-14,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:53.160Z","v":3,"id":"86846f78-b62b-4af6-8ffb-b263b5f46633","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6628046859120873,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":40,"treasury":33},"blend":0.7434999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:53.160Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.53,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":3.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.6,"4":0.28}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.28,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.44,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.32,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:53.340Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-8","church":"+12","people":"-11","treasury":"-18"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"0","church":"-12","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":722,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":3.04,"people":1.09,"treasury":0.46},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":0.99,"people":2.3,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":13,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":12,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:55.165Z","v":3,"id":"53a29e8d-92c4-4713-8dfb-f88f528e56a2","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.7438845920152184,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.77,"year":2,"after":{"army":41,"church":63,"people":35,"treasury":36},"blend":0.7025000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:55.165Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":40,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.2,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.25,"3":0.31,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.19,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.43,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:55.347Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":40,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-3","church":"+11","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":40,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.92,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.91,"people":1.51,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.05}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:57.164Z","v":3,"id":"fc4d2453-229d-4d82-8ae5-b2e35de49c12","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1403697490234499,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.96,"year":3,"after":{"army":32,"church":63,"people":25,"treasury":25},"blend":0.7035,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:57.164Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":35,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.33,"3":0.28,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:57.362Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":35,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":41,"church":63,"people":35,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.93,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.97,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:11:59.180Z","v":3,"id":"b99ffb01-6184-486c-8781-f087067b556e","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.3834186977256069,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":29,"church":70,"people":14,"treasury":22},"blend":0.7489,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:59.180Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":25,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.04,"3":0.62,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.35,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.25,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.49,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:11:59.386Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:01.185Z","v":3,"id":"111933e1-d4cb-4509-87a0-c10ceb5c41fd","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.44445814937510364,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.65,"year":5,"after":{"army":29,"church":68,"people":6,"treasury":14},"blend":0.47719999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:01.185Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.62,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:01.345Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":29,"church":70,"people":14,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.76,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.68,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:03.166Z","v":3,"id":"6181017f-9595-4b8b-b00e-f2c700cdf17f","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7256522971072781,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.51,"year":6,"after":{"army":30,"church":70,"people":3,"treasury":15},"blend":0.3804,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:03.166Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":6,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1965,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.43,"2":0.23,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.58,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.49,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.73,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":436},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:03.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":6,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-4","treasury":"0"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":786,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":29,"church":68,"people":6,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.67,"people":1.26,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.09,"people":1.63,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2751,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":436},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:05.192Z","v":3,"id":"6042a4cb-7a55-46ea-b194-3e8c60f9b0f9","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7244457534861366,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":30,"church":69,"people":10,"treasury":21},"blend":0.7081,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:05.192Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1959,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.38,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.62,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.29,"2":0.04,"3":0.34,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.75,"1":0.24,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.38,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.39,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:05.378Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-17","church":"-5","people":"-21","treasury":"-23"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":30,"church":70,"people":3,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.6,"church":1.58,"people":0.28,"treasury":0.09},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.86,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2743,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-17,"church":-5,"people":-21,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:07.190Z","v":3,"id":"1e0a3c4f-fc6f-4381-84a4-025413ad3f02","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric III","wisdom":0.27},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.21668758605990246,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.64,"year":8,"after":{"army":27,"church":61,"people":0,"treasury":15},"blend":0.4672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:07.190Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Godric III, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.39,"2":0.1,"3":0.19,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.2,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.41,"2":0.3,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.09,"2":0.26,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.37,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:07.363Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Godric III defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-21","treasury":"-7"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7b541b97-5296-47c4-bb59-f12d12b0abb7","before":{"army":30,"church":69,"people":10,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.23,"people":0.22,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.64,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-21,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":5,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:09.173Z","v":3,"id":"954da4a3-5856-407a-bd30-419ddd131bc7","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.22779573135532027,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":43,"church":50,"people":54,"treasury":38},"blend":0.7649999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:09.173Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.36,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.26,"2":0.07,"3":0.59,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.53,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.2,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:09.328Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fadd11dc-6022-45f9-8504-20d8a670a9a9","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.93,"people":2.29,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.89,"people":1.78,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:11.165Z","v":3,"id":"5d9f1d5b-9676-46b6-ae39-42265b958cd3","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.18744352008398413,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.92,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":45,"people":40,"treasury":37},"blend":0.7025,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:11.165Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":54,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.04,"3":0.66,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.74,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.16,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.33,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.52,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:11.305Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":54,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+5","church":"-6","people":"-15","treasury":"-2"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fadd11dc-6022-45f9-8504-20d8a670a9a9","before":{"army":43,"church":50,"people":54,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.43,"church":1.5,"people":0.74,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":2.06,"people":2.76,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:13.184Z","v":3,"id":"43f02856-086c-4df7-acbd-b911002f17d4","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.38162642164172955,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":26},"blend":0.7525,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:13.184Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":40,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.17,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.82,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.35,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.64,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.41,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:13.339Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":40,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":267}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fadd11dc-6022-45f9-8504-20d8a670a9a9","before":{"army":49,"church":45,"people":40,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.85,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.13,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":267,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:15.183Z","v":3,"id":"94eaf1e4-3ec2-409a-8ce1-871f60e1e570","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.15534334329046406,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":36,"church":38,"people":20,"treasury":7},"blend":0.7525,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:15.183Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.87,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.72,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.36,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:15.377Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-20"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fadd11dc-6022-45f9-8504-20d8a670a9a9","before":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.43,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.37},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.12,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:17.173Z","v":3,"id":"aa8bee3d-1d5e-40e8-9e84-f445b152e961","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.25},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.23192649947574706,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.92,"year":5,"after":{"army":31,"church":24,"people":3,"treasury":0},"blend":0.6900000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:17.173Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.57,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.5,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.29,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.51,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:17.330Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 25% of the time.","description":"Radulf V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-6","church":"-15","people":"-18","treasury":"-20"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fadd11dc-6022-45f9-8504-20d8a670a9a9","before":{"army":36,"church":38,"people":20,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":0.78,"people":0.52,"treasury":0.36},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.04,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-14,"people":-17,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-15,"people":-18,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:19.182Z","v":3,"id":"4b20cd4a-8f6d-4df1-943f-5cfce200d06d","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6399745655152818,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":54},"blend":0.4188,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:19.182Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.22,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.49,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.15,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.22,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.39,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:19.345Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:21.187Z","v":3,"id":"f2ddb40f-ce72-4839-8753-d21bc3a221ee","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4161806619903248,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.31,"year":2,"after":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":57},"blend":0.127,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:21.187Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.79,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.68,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:21.410Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.84,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.98,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:23.183Z","v":3,"id":"ee48cf00-5274-4be5-9535-1f4fdcd3c04c","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.24533104503990444,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":49},"blend":0.3861,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:23.183Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:23.342Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.97,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.98,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:25.187Z","v":3,"id":"b0b7d6e9-087b-4925-b1f4-95ef35425d4e","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.2012008911790404,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":50,"people":46,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9939,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:25.187Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.41,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:25.381Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":47,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":45,"church":50,"people":47,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.95,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.86,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:27.187Z","v":3,"id":"77788a28-de9c-4a5b-8be3-cb86d08358a5","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.22845902629280967,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"blend":0.4227,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:27.187Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":46,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.13,"3":0.76,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:27.381Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":46,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":44,"church":50,"people":46,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.7,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.89,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:29.178Z","v":3,"id":"551cfca2-6967-465f-801c-4b0714af244a","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.6616518053336553,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.97,"year":6,"after":{"army":42,"church":48,"people":35,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9761,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:29.178Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:29.380Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.96,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.92,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:31.189Z","v":3,"id":"0c94b881-ecc5-48b6-a089-8d790eb90d1a","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8465366715838634,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":46,"people":33,"treasury":49},"blend":0.0122,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:31.189Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":35,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.71,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.59,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.65,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.46,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.48,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.21,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.73,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.52,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:31.352Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":35,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-10","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":42,"church":48,"people":35,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.15,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.93},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.71,"people":1.78,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:33.192Z","v":3,"id":"8e65b395-9cd5-48fb-b20f-a88524d6f25c","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.22859994103985737,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.16,"year":8,"after":{"army":45,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":53},"blend":0.0685,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:33.192Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":33,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.74,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.68,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.69,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:33.360Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":33,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-13","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":44,"church":46,"people":33,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.95,"church":1.61,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.78},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.01,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:35.178Z","v":3,"id":"f3d75089-09e8-44c1-8cd0-90bcd319f3ba","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.12465476889708005,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.09,"year":9,"after":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":35,"treasury":56},"blend":0.0473,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:35.178Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:35.392Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":45,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.95,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.96,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:37.194Z","v":3,"id":"d93929d3-da74-480a-9ef3-76a687b1b956","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.11452880140320798,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.18,"year":10,"after":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":40,"treasury":53},"blend":0.668,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:37.194Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":35,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.66,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.35,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.11,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.15,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:37.371Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":35,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-4"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":35,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.08,"church":1.99,"people":2.36,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.39,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:39.184Z","v":3,"id":"97089877-fc29-48d4-97db-a8327cc7bdc1","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9669390866507486,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.27,"year":11,"after":{"army":48,"church":59,"people":48,"treasury":54},"blend":0.1358,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:39.184Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":40,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.21,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:39.376Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":40,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":238}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":40,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.28,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.73,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":10,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":238,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:41.195Z","v":3,"id":"fa21e65b-be2d-40a2-a21f-a3c90bfce892","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6701618737267572,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":12,"after":{"army":46,"church":60,"people":52,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3983,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:41.195Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":48,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.69,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.61,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.86,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.65,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:41.326Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":48,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":48,"church":59,"people":48,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.17,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":2.03,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:43.190Z","v":3,"id":"b3356811-2b76-4232-b805-a7e268db6a01","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.7687904354128707,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.07,"year":13,"after":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":41,"treasury":61},"blend":0.5214000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:43.190Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.96,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.43,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.4,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:43.391Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":52,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":46,"church":60,"people":52,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":2.36,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.63,"people":1,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:45.190Z","v":3,"id":"1da0f8fe-e7c8-48f7-8581-17e41a89654c","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.12400739686208873,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.14,"year":14,"after":{"army":47,"church":60,"people":52,"treasury":59},"blend":0.07900000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:45.190Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":41,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.52,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.12,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.83,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:45.424Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":41,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-17","treasury":"+10"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":45,"church":57,"people":41,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.25,"people":0.56,"treasury":2.82},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.16,"people":2.84,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-17,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:47.196Z","v":3,"id":"fa550ef2-b619-4c5e-b072-41558d174f41","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4595272163032802,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.96,"year":15,"after":{"army":48,"church":64,"people":60,"treasury":62},"blend":0.3866,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:47.196Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":52,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.74,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.56,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.44,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.66,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.34,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.64,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:47.347Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":52,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-15","church":"-15","people":"-19","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":47,"church":60,"people":52,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.79,"church":0.78,"people":0.45,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.27,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-15,"people":-19,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:49.195Z","v":3,"id":"56ae18f4-883c-4912-b019-9b908a486aa5","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.015369345409300683,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":48,"church":58,"people":56,"treasury":61},"blend":0.47540000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:49.195Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.39,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:49.344Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":60,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":48,"church":64,"people":60,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.41,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.36,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:51.198Z","v":3,"id":"916b7b27-9d35-4587-8568-f384ff4e6ff4","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4620789289589926,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.08,"year":17,"after":{"army":58,"church":58,"people":53,"treasury":60},"blend":0.0434,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:51.198Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":56,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.24,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.32,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":239},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:51.437Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":56,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"-9"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+9","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":48,"church":58,"people":56,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.65,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":2.74,"church":1.89,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":239},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":9,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:53.183Z","v":3,"id":"a4fb2c2c-2fa3-4098-9912-b4ea5ce86951","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.38404310865266345,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.84,"year":18,"after":{"army":57,"church":63,"people":66,"treasury":51},"blend":0.3642,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:53.183Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":53,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.18,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.36,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:53.361Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":53,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-20","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":58,"church":58,"people":53,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.38,"people":0.37,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.35,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-20,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:55.214Z","v":3,"id":"75fd9358-08e7-4355-9182-86fd394bcc5b","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.4131349378828173,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.78,"year":19,"after":{"army":56,"church":65,"people":78,"treasury":43},"blend":0.3774,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:55.214Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":66,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.93,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.58,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":250},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:55.464Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":66,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":57,"church":63,"people":66,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.7,"people":1.04,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.11,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":250},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:57.186Z","v":3,"id":"2d577eeb-b45a-41fb-a36c-5a2e92b89113","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.3680646171884656,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.23,"year":20,"after":{"army":58,"church":67,"people":84,"treasury":53},"blend":0.108,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:57.186Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":78,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.6,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.68,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.27,"3":0.7,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:57.343Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":78,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-16"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":56,"church":65,"people":78,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.86,"people":1.31,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.05,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:12:59.212Z","v":3,"id":"9bd1e5e2-897c-4c90-8c68-687341c8f311","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.33765630495863275,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.11,"year":21,"after":{"army":58,"church":76,"people":75,"treasury":50},"blend":0.049,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:59.212Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.23,"2":0.17,"3":0.49,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.14,"3":0.71,"4":0.04}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.31,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":247},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:12:59.459Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"-10","treasury":"-4"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-3","church":"-11","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":58,"church":67,"people":84,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.1,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.66,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":247},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:01.193Z","v":3,"id":"b1a9d18c-de4a-419c-9b37-264719e362f7","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6301225018804515,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.26,"year":22,"after":{"army":59,"church":75,"people":77,"treasury":56},"blend":0.1258,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:01.193Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.14,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.47,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.74,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":133},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:01.326Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":58,"church":76,"people":75,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.25,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.83,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":133},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:03.207Z","v":3,"id":"d017a192-b6e9-4b8e-85f5-806e5dc31feb","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.13259563912040684,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.31,"year":23,"after":{"army":61,"church":74,"people":75,"treasury":47},"blend":0.2673,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:03.207Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.39999999999999997,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.28,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.51,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.66,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.52,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:03.348Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+4"},"Take the pass":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":59,"church":75,"people":77,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":1.82,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":2,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:05.205Z","v":3,"id":"8b83bb11-52d9-453b-9b54-92f87a514400","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5595303846118802,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.86,"year":24,"after":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":80,"treasury":49},"blend":0.3598,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:05.205Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":75,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.78,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.87,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.63,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.91,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:05.343Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":75,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":61,"church":74,"people":75,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.76,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":2.11,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:07.192Z","v":3,"id":"698fb7a6-4152-4c02-a12f-72b1112881c9","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.5614175952322049,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.43,"year":25,"after":{"army":59,"church":72,"people":65,"treasury":37},"blend":0.7655000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:07.192Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.3,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.54,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.16,"3":0.72,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.59,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.2,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:07.338Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-16","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":80,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.56,"people":0.66,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.07,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-16,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:09.205Z","v":3,"id":"d451e63c-e2d0-4ee2-9a8c-6b410fef2ecc","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.6129482520889198,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.99,"year":26,"after":{"army":62,"church":74,"people":68,"treasury":38},"blend":0.9778,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:09.205Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":65,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.79,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:09.386Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":65,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":59,"church":72,"people":65,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.16,"church":2.11,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.78,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:11.210Z","v":3,"id":"dac971a7-aea7-41b7-9bb9-c98523d95ea6","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.941226946028189,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.96,"year":27,"after":{"army":63,"church":77,"people":77,"treasury":39},"blend":0.3866,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:11.210Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.2,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.47,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.21,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:11.431Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"-7"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":62,"church":74,"people":68,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.87,"people":0.63,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.17,"people":2.65,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:13.246Z","v":3,"id":"6dd3c493-b0ea-4ebe-844e-6de23f758643","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4768602950746361,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.03,"year":28,"after":{"army":67,"church":84,"people":83,"treasury":37},"blend":0.0727,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:13.246Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":77,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.67,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.36,"4":0.58}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:13.412Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":77,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-15","people":"-14","treasury":"+18"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":63,"church":77,"people":77,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":0.77,"people":0.83,"treasury":3.47},"right":{"army":2.22,"church":2.48,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":18},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:15.189Z","v":3,"id":"d7f67925-0e98-4fbe-93d9-f0614758abc4","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.6535647128329944,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":29,"after":{"army":59,"church":83,"people":76,"treasury":31},"blend":0.8619,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:15.189Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.24,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.62,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.52,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.63,"2":0.25,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.63,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:15.433Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":67,"church":84,"people":83,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.86,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":2.45,"church":1.71,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":5,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:17.194Z","v":3,"id":"0ff54915-5285-4b7c-921e-2cf5ec03efd6","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.07550499499420038,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.9,"year":30,"after":{"army":56,"church":74,"people":63,"treasury":18},"blend":0.9549000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:17.194Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.38,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.56,"2":0.07,"3":0.12,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.61,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.76,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.53,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:17.356Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-14"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":59,"church":83,"people":76,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.17,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.82},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.07,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:19.204Z","v":3,"id":"2a4ae941-11f9-4ed6-ba96-784882e66a74","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.0077545298120658135,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.93,"year":31,"after":{"army":47,"church":70,"people":50,"treasury":0},"blend":0.3627,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:19.204Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.78,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.64,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.67,"1":0.33,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.6,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:19.349Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Margarethe V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-10","church":"-5","people":"-14","treasury":"-20"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b66a2b93-3915-4edd-9451-becb099af0c7","before":{"army":56,"church":74,"people":63,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.57,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.35},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.98,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:21.206Z","v":3,"id":"d6fb7748-aa50-4bdf-9599-30fe929a22a1","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4564460364208265,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.03,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":58,"treasury":49},"blend":0.024300000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:21.206Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.2,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.77,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.64,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.31,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.2,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.48,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:21.341Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"-2"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.54,"people":0.82,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.14,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:23.203Z","v":3,"id":"f7d2b7b5-52a2-4fad-bf89-ebf588572c97","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6890190087807013,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":45,"people":62,"treasury":50},"blend":0.4585,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:23.203Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":58,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.16,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.35,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.04,"3":0.65,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.67,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.45,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.12,"3":0.73,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.62,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:23.365Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":58,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+8","people":"-10","treasury":"+8"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":58,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.23,"church":2.7,"people":1.16,"treasury":2.65},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.24,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:25.191Z","v":3,"id":"af564b9f-4d7c-4429-b01f-dfe6e27e1aab","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.5,"mock":false,"roll":0.999654082266936,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.88,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":43,"people":58,"treasury":52},"blend":0.6634,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:25.191Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":62,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.34,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.52,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.28,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.48,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.52,"2":0.25,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.28,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:25.343Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":62,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":53,"church":45,"people":62,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.12,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.74,"people":1.6,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:27.198Z","v":3,"id":"e74fe9df-ff06-455d-b40a-49195bfa0671","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9775972020746646,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.94,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":58,"treasury":52},"blend":0.4099,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:27.198Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.32,"3":0.25,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:27.383Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":47,"church":43,"people":58,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.84,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.97,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:29.197Z","v":3,"id":"80bf129b-20de-49dd-b797-c6a37752f141","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.4768134950334899,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.95,"year":5,"after":{"army":40,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":62},"blend":0.49970000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:29.197Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.38,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.72,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.07,"3":0.54,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.31,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.3,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:29.348Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"-12","treasury":"+9"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"+8","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":255}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":58,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":2.28,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.75},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.59,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-11,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":255,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":8,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:31.191Z","v":3,"id":"851d84c5-1d4f-4e7e-8494-ebb3fb1910e1","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6419639755117565,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.1,"year":6,"after":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":64},"blend":0.05440000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:31.191Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":47,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.33,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.7,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:31.350Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":47,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":40,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.79,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.04,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:33.191Z","v":3,"id":"0539660b-d0d3-4bca-89df-7aeabd4bb30d","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.6373459063629332,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.85,"year":7,"after":{"army":38,"church":51,"people":53,"treasury":68},"blend":0.9127,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:33.191Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1882,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.69,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.45,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:33.333Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":2.11,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.23},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.78,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2567,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:35.194Z","v":3,"id":"a83aa38b-9e9d-4ed1-b5b7-23595ba800ee","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.8171701364031931,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.67,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":51,"people":47,"treasury":74},"blend":0.5161,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:35.194Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":53,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.22,"3":0.58,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.09,"3":0.7,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.43,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.21,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:35.358Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":53,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-7","church":"+6","people":"+7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":38,"church":51,"people":53,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":2.48,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.95,"people":1.43,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":6,"people":7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.21}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:37.193Z","v":3,"id":"9cd54bb5-1151-4d35-ac97-f6451ee818c4","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.59,"mock":false,"roll":0.9978918495743883,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":34,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":66},"blend":0.7663,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:37.193Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":47,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.93,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.31,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.3,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:37.404Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":47,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+12","people":"+7","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-2","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":38,"church":51,"people":47,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":2.98,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.04,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-1,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":12,"people":7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-2,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.19}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:39.209Z","v":3,"id":"020d1372-74c9-4ad2-a0bb-1d475229b788","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.0763927985857833,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.38,"year":10,"after":{"army":31,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":63},"blend":0.16910000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:39.209Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":46,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"left":0.38,"right":0.62}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.25,"3":0.31,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.75,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.42,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.29,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:39.430Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":46,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-15","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":34,"church":40,"people":46,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.88,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.97,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-14,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.24,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:41.215Z","v":3,"id":"134e88a9-b188-4cb8-9046-971fa68c6d89","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.09476279687354561,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":26,"church":52,"people":21,"treasury":48},"blend":0.46990000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:41.215Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":32,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.03,"3":0.55,"4":0.26}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.23,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.32,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:41.351Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":32,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"+6"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-6","church":"+11","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":31,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.89,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.27,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":12,"people":-11,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":11,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:43.211Z","v":3,"id":"11901d6f-a36e-4243-a65a-7b41575fc7af","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1547588316359889,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.04,"year":12,"after":{"army":27,"church":55,"people":25,"treasury":42},"blend":0.022900000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:43.211Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":21,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.52,"2":0.28,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.7,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.6,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.7,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.63,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.39,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.66,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:43.438Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":21,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+3","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":26,"church":52,"people":21,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.21,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.14,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.44}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":4,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:45.214Z","v":3,"id":"dd009810-daae-4543-a44e-635262d54674","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.8539425010239909,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":24,"church":47,"people":26,"treasury":45},"blend":0.5212,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:45.214Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":25,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.04,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.37,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.3,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.55,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:45.415Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":25,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":27,"church":55,"people":25,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2.57,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.24,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:47.216Z","v":3,"id":"76748196-3008-4a91-9978-469d9fa03cc1","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8917874215584267,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":25,"church":56,"people":30,"treasury":47},"blend":0.4314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:47.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":26,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.1,"3":0.67,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.31,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:47.385Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":26,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-10","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":24,"church":47,"people":26,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.62,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.64,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:49.212Z","v":3,"id":"c2fd3c9e-64be-4fef-9376-c89d859584dd","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5694231610150378,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.16,"year":15,"after":{"army":26,"church":61,"people":39,"treasury":48},"blend":0.07450000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:49.212Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":30,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.27,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.23,"3":0.73,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:49.446Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":25,"church":56,"people":30,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.55,"people":1,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.36,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:51.218Z","v":3,"id":"47553274-02fd-4326-acfc-5476af4622b5","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.205229193438335,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.15,"year":16,"after":{"army":38,"church":62,"people":44,"treasury":39},"blend":0.0873,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:51.218Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":39,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.91,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.51,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.53,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.4,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:51.391Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":39,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":26,"church":61,"people":39,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.76,"people":1.41,"treasury":2.23},"right":{"army":2.89,"church":2.02,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:53.202Z","v":3,"id":"b3ed946d-02b2-4482-a2d8-afa13a4a351c","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.9197593099549686,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":37},"blend":0.46420000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:53.202Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":44,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.04,"3":0.66,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.08,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.45,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:53.341Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":44,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"+9","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-14","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":38,"church":62,"people":44,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.57,"people":0.84,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.13,"people":2.71,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-14,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:55.217Z","v":3,"id":"fedbb9fe-b57a-40f3-a7aa-4a6b57b6e586","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.5668002734401174,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.81,"year":18,"after":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":38},"blend":0.8955,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:55.217Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.41,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.66,"2":0.18,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.33,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.33,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:55.351Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"0"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.24,"people":2.99,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.37,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:57.203Z","v":3,"id":"e3f77167-511c-444b-a70c-306ebe37daf7","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9725237500895649,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0,"year":19,"after":{"army":33,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":44},"blend":0.005699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:57.203Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":67,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.58,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.54,"2":0.35,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.82,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.88,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.44,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.58,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:57.379Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":67,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-16","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.66,"church":1.43,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.48},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.07,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:13:59.221Z","v":3,"id":"8d3304a2-7c9d-4b21-b5fe-03fe2b2feaf2","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2921359702738404,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.57,"year":20,"after":{"army":34,"church":57,"people":71,"treasury":48},"blend":0.2622,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:59.221Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.11,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.36,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.67,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.45,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":245},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:13:59.465Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":33,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":2.43,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.71,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":245},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:01.208Z","v":3,"id":"14aed24d-20be-412b-a9cd-fa335bc8fc36","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.05671927180676439,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":26,"church":62,"people":57,"treasury":40},"blend":0.4585,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:01.208Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":71,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.35,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.55,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.68,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.05,"3":0.75,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.61,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.34,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:01.416Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":71,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-15","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-6","church":"-11","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":34,"church":57,"people":71,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":2.31,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":1.06,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:03.207Z","v":3,"id":"862ee391-d499-4de9-a04f-f97ef14cbc62","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9814235863504619,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.41,"year":22,"after":{"army":25,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":42},"blend":0.18200000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:03.207Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.55,"2":0.11,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.86,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.69,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:03.402Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":26,"church":62,"people":57,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.26,"people":0.78,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.25,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:05.222Z","v":3,"id":"7fd41292-8006-45de-af38-8870adf0b8eb","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5571153737343058,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.03,"year":23,"after":{"army":26,"church":75,"people":66,"treasury":44},"blend":0.047099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:05.222Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.27,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":245},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:05.467Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":25,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.37,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.65,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":245},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:07.209Z","v":3,"id":"a4b161e5-ea3f-40cc-a25e-dc46e0378a8d","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.2747402433102841,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.99,"year":24,"after":{"army":22,"church":84,"people":59,"treasury":40},"blend":0.45990000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:07.209Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.29,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"3":0.69,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.69,"2":0.14,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.42,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.11,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.32,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:07.385Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-5","church":"+8","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":26,"church":75,"people":66,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":2.68,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":1.3,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":9,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:09.208Z","v":3,"id":"6be4e885-5553-4d84-a1f8-f54c859e8f1c","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.6109892524033447,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.05,"year":25,"after":{"army":23,"church":87,"people":65,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5857999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:09.208Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.4,"2":0.1,"3":0.27,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.55,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.83,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:09.399Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":254}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":22,"church":84,"people":59,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.61,"people":0.81,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.15,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":254,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:11.212Z","v":3,"id":"4a319648-88a5-4b2d-aca2-e63c8c15f7c4","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8498613851484431,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.08,"year":26,"after":{"army":24,"church":89,"people":66,"treasury":44},"blend":0.06290000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:11.212Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.21,"3":0.49,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.76,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.06,"3":0.66,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:11.448Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-6","treasury":"+5"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":23,"church":87,"people":65,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":2.43,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.1,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2717,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-6,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:13.206Z","v":3,"id":"7e5d8d61-d9cf-4cc9-99c9-5a44ba44a323","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.4383042109217856,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.39,"year":27,"after":{"army":20,"church":90,"people":60,"treasury":36},"blend":0.7263,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:13.206Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.27,"2":0.17,"3":0.36,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.58,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:13.389Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":24,"church":89,"people":66,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":2.02,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.28},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.23,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:15.207Z","v":3,"id":"8a1ec858-3fad-4083-b87f-1a3e5e9a7745","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.11728295294260094,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":28,"after":{"army":10,"church":98,"people":53,"treasury":36},"blend":0.43000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:15.207Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.39999999999999997,"2":0.21,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.1,"2":0.1,"3":0.29,"4":0.36}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.58,"2":0.03,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.67,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.39,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:15.361Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-11","church":"+7","people":"-8","treasury":"-1"},"Stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-14","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":20,"church":90,"people":60,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":2.59,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":0.86,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2702,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":7,"people":-8,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-14,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:17.207Z","v":3,"id":"55f2fd45-4c9a-4167-af16-af541ff480d6","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8252364087101354,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":29,"after":{"army":9,"church":88,"people":62,"treasury":35},"blend":0.43000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:17.207Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":98,"danger":["church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1962,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.63,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.16,"2":0.02,"3":0.36,"4":0.27}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.85,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.24,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.32,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:17.352Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":98,"danger":["church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-13","treasury":"-7"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":10,"church":98,"people":53,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.37,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.12,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2746,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-13,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:19.226Z","v":3,"id":"e070198a-6e93-4a25-b5ab-c31fdee06d5d","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6647791151960993,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":11,"church":79,"people":68,"treasury":43},"blend":0.43000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:19.226Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":88,"danger":["church is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1973,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.39,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.33,"4":0.38}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.9,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.69,"2":0.07,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.25,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.65,"1":0.35,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.22,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:19.417Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":88,"danger":["church is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-14","church":"+8","people":"-12","treasury":"-20"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+5","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 88: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":793,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":9,"church":88,"people":62,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.84,"church":2.66,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.36},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.18,"people":2.42,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2766,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:21.241Z","v":3,"id":"38c37523-d7b6-4178-ac7c-69525d65a6e1","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.027770816565917844,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.01,"year":31,"after":{"army":3,"church":81,"people":70,"treasury":38},"blend":0.0214,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:21.241Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Godric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.35,"2":0.04,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.55,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.48,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.69,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.67,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.28,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:21.431Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Godric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Godric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-12","church":"-13","people":"-18","treasury":"-20"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-9","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":11,"church":79,"people":68,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":0.88,"people":0.52,"treasury":0.32},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":2.07,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-13,"people":-18,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:23.226Z","v":3,"id":"0639e625-099f-416a-b509-f04f87f5e218","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Godric II","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.72,"mock":false,"roll":0.8163747181109948,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.1,"year":32,"after":{"army":0,"church":82,"people":75,"treasury":44},"blend":0.4533999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:23.226Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.47,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.57,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.45,"2":0.19,"3":0.12,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.78,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.51,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.91,"1":0.09,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.49,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:23.366Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"15be9ce8-59ab-4f00-9851-6dc7b72bdf7c","before":{"army":3,"church":81,"people":70,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.29,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.1},"right":{"army":1.34,"church":2.01,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.44}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:25.210Z","v":3,"id":"3f5c0f2b-bf85-41af-aa1b-2c495c691c68","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.7208713854513806,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.97,"year":1,"after":{"army":43,"church":42,"people":37,"treasury":40},"blend":0.8119,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:25.210Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1879,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.58,"2":0.17,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.56,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.64,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.72,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.34,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.73,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:25.395Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"47f9f716-8ea2-4394-aa39-abeb35e23a09","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.28,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.62,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2566,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:27.228Z","v":3,"id":"04dda1d0-ace9-40f0-bf2a-69174a2712fc","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.020184245184841743,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":31,"treasury":32},"blend":0.8217,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:27.228Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:27.442Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":37,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"47f9f716-8ea2-4394-aa39-abeb35e23a09","before":{"army":43,"church":42,"people":37,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.9,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.92,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:29.213Z","v":3,"id":"b5de28c5-484a-405c-8371-03ce1ebb30b3","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6497681271114812,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":30,"church":31,"people":16,"treasury":18},"blend":0.8317,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:29.213Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":31,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.81,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.63,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.7,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.64,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.49,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.57,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:29.414Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":31,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-13","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"47f9f716-8ea2-4394-aa39-abeb35e23a09","before":{"army":42,"church":42,"people":31,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.9,"church":1.01,"people":0.7,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.11,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:31.213Z","v":3,"id":"7b235493-328c-4e2b-8ad0-8877738e2fde","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.31652199592323305,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.05,"year":4,"after":{"army":30,"church":29,"people":13,"treasury":22},"blend":0.0432,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:31.213Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.46,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.69,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:31.374Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-15"},"Turn him away":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"47f9f716-8ea2-4394-aa39-abeb35e23a09","before":{"army":30,"church":31,"people":16,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.44,"people":1.13,"treasury":0.76},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.77,"people":1.66,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:33.220Z","v":3,"id":"08ccc04a-64d9-4132-89d3-92ec28b259d8","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.31914802216389493,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.94,"year":5,"after":{"army":15,"church":14,"people":0,"treasury":1},"blend":0.7801999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:33.220Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.58,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.5,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.91,"1":0.09,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.58,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.84,"1":0.16,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:33.372Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-16","church":"-16","people":"-23","treasury":"-22"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"47f9f716-8ea2-4394-aa39-abeb35e23a09","before":{"army":30,"church":29,"people":13,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.67,"church":0.66,"people":0.1,"treasury":0.16},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.93,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-15,"church":-15,"people":-22,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-16,"people":-23,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:35.232Z","v":3,"id":"52e521b4-5bf6-48c1-acc3-f6b43fddab43","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.8725580730073892,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.92,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":42,"people":61,"treasury":43},"blend":0.7775000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:35.232Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.23,"2":0.03,"3":0.59,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.36,"2":0.29,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":230},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:35.462Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"-17","treasury":"-2"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":2.41,"people":0.61,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.26,"people":2.84,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":11,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":230},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":-17,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:37.229Z","v":3,"id":"c0336875-088b-4c9c-a693-055edfc9d3df","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.07203754945685192,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.9,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":36,"people":42,"treasury":43},"blend":0.7461000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:37.229Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":61,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.2,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.65,"1":0.35,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.65,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.9,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.38,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:37.403Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":61,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"-20","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":51,"church":42,"people":61,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.43,"people":0.36,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":2.21,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-19,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-20,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:39.230Z","v":3,"id":"2c15e6d2-ddf8-4c93-b824-4c9eeb1e1474","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6983675360218815,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":29,"people":26,"treasury":48},"blend":0.8057000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:39.230Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.42,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.59,"2":0.26,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.55,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.26,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.07,"3":0.55,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.42,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:39.437Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":42,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:41.214Z","v":3,"id":"cab626c0-c5ed-4814-ad5f-85d59bb7008e","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.054445466625625105,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":39,"church":26,"people":20,"treasury":57},"blend":0.8195,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:41.214Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.38,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.67,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:41.364Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":47,"church":29,"people":26,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.67,"people":1.42,"treasury":2.67},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.92,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:43.229Z","v":3,"id":"37a542a9-d6d1-4d08-bbdb-3ecba97ff9fd","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6654836039040792,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.75,"year":5,"after":{"army":37,"church":31,"people":32,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6075,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:43.229Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6,"2":0.28,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.29,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.88,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.45,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:43.471Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":238}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":39,"church":26,"people":20,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.27,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":2.35,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":238,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:45.216Z","v":3,"id":"e77bf584-7aea-464f-bcd7-4471b4c633fd","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4323914987551738,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":35,"church":29,"people":27,"treasury":47},"blend":0.8038000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:45.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":32,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.11,"3":0.31,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.65,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:45.360Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":32,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":37,"church":31,"people":32,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.72,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.05,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:47.216Z","v":3,"id":"33b00998-3c80-4639-a99f-901ce5439d6e","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3618760818201059,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.98,"year":7,"after":{"army":24,"church":27,"people":24,"treasury":45},"blend":0.8014000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:47.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":27,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.26,"3":0.73,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.34,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.52,"2":0.11,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:47.449Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":27,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+9","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":35,"church":29,"people":27,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.76,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":2.72,"church":1.84,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":9,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:49.219Z","v":3,"id":"de2a6cc0-b049-404b-8f06-6a119898e67e","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.12117268754793908,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.3,"year":8,"after":{"army":25,"church":27,"people":27,"treasury":36},"blend":0.41400000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:49.219Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":24,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.62,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:49.431Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":24,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+2"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":24,"church":27,"people":24,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.95,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.92,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.19}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:51.216Z","v":3,"id":"27a367b2-f93d-4c75-a0bd-31277120c92a","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5972726173936211,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":16,"church":19,"people":8,"treasury":51},"blend":0.8138000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:51.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":27,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.74,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.58,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.7,"1":0.3,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.69,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.09,"3":0.86,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.69,"4":0.27}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":295},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:51.511Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":27,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":25,"church":27,"people":27,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.23,"people":0.31,"treasury":3.19},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.14,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":295},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:53.216Z","v":3,"id":"beaeb8d5-4a0d-49b7-8482-991eedff9686","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.24825617318495063,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.73,"year":10,"after":{"army":5,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5951000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:53.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.73,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.53,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.6,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.41,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.64,"2":0.11,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:53.407Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Hildegard III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-14","people":"-13","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":807,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"98ba0bbb-cffb-43ae-a438-7d42c8cb76b0","before":{"army":16,"church":19,"people":8,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":0.82,"people":0.9,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":1.39,"church":1.31,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2771,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-13,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-14,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-6,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:55.217Z","v":3,"id":"3ee01c10-7f2c-4f38-9995-f7a5bc37faac","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5733484196337941,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":45},"blend":0.2925,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:55.217Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.2,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.44,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.04,"3":0.74,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":127},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:55.345Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+9"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.85,"people":1.52,"treasury":2.79},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":127},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:57.216Z","v":3,"id":"f8b5b977-0273-4470-a55a-98648264f20e","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.74,"mock":false,"roll":0.4691614138769955,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.26,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":43,"people":49,"treasury":44},"blend":0.6199999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:57.216Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.68,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.58,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.11,"3":0.8099999999999999,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.38,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.54,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":301},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:57.517Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.24,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.1,"church":2.79,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-8,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":301},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:14:59.218Z","v":3,"id":"98095929-11bd-4dce-9e5d-4646a37cd865","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.929852964747037,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":54,"church":47,"people":60,"treasury":36},"blend":0.28,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:59.218Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":49,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.52,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.14,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.73,"4":0.21}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:14:59.370Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":49,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-9"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":54,"church":43,"people":49,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.29,"people":0.49,"treasury":3.1},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.27,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:01.225Z","v":3,"id":"1943230e-46de-41dd-9611-14f1e9b9d467","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.006768178041812956,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.65,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":52,"treasury":30},"blend":0.17,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:01.225Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":60,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.66,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.71,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.11,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:01.453Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":60,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-8","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":54,"church":47,"people":60,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.36,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.84,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:03.217Z","v":3,"id":"c499683b-5bb8-40ea-9d21-ee3dacd27e2e","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.2165056284826028,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":38,"church":25,"people":37,"treasury":52},"blend":0.28,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:03.217Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":52,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.14,"4":0.84}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":291},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:03.508Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":52,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-7"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-16","people":"-16","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":52,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":0.7,"people":0.69,"treasury":3.78},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.6,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-15,"people":-15,"treasury":22},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":291},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-16,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:05.225Z","v":3,"id":"58918ec7-17c3-4ed8-969c-9c940c2a1328","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.8645094537769193,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.58,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":42},"blend":0.2425,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:05.225Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":37,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.08,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.32,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:05.359Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":37,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":38,"church":25,"people":37,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.89,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.5},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.99,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:07.220Z","v":3,"id":"7b6d13d8-5695-4cef-9b07-ba6ec8bfa1ad","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8232109809779702,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":26,"people":46,"treasury":40},"blend":0.27249999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:07.220Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":48,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.33,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.37,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.9,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.47,"2":0.14,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:07.427Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":48,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+8","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":38,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.74,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":2.64,"church":1.9,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":9,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:09.222Z","v":3,"id":"9ae3a37d-26c4-4a00-a141-66e2d2f25548","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.4952619602644468,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.84,"year":8,"after":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":49,"treasury":30},"blend":0.255,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:09.222Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":46,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.89,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.53,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.33,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:09.401Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":46,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+2"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":47,"church":26,"people":46,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.84,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.2},"right":{"army":2.85,"church":1.96,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":11,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:11.220Z","v":3,"id":"8a3e555d-b07e-48cb-8703-377b5d07fe2f","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.21724290955516423,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.85,"year":9,"after":{"army":55,"church":32,"people":40,"treasury":23},"blend":0.265,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:11.220Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":49,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.14,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.31,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.69,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.09,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.48,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":252},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:11.472Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":49,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"+2"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":49,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.35,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.32},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.66,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":252},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:13.239Z","v":3,"id":"92d0faf7-c21e-4a3e-8bfb-86f91776cd21","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.5356492700305817,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.96,"year":10,"after":{"army":56,"church":33,"people":42,"treasury":25},"blend":0.9225,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:13.239Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":40,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.66,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.39,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.05,"3":0.5,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.14,"3":0.7,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:13.419Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":40,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":55,"church":32,"people":40,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1.96,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.39,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:15.227Z","v":3,"id":"2e57df67-b8e7-44d8-90cb-c4f59e2a97bc","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.40034256538264734,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.79,"year":11,"after":{"army":58,"church":35,"people":53,"treasury":24},"blend":0.20500000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:15.227Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":42,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.72,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.7,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.7,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.63,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.19,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:15.453Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":42,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":56,"church":33,"people":42,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.5,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.1,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:17.224Z","v":3,"id":"3bfd106e-ef16-4024-bab3-2f3dfcfeb52b","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.42625314517118507,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.93,"year":12,"after":{"army":59,"church":37,"people":58,"treasury":29},"blend":0.24000000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:17.224Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":53,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.64,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.13,"3":0.39,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":254},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:17.478Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":58,"church":35,"people":53,"treasury":24},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.76,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.13},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.07,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":254},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:19.238Z","v":3,"id":"6763eb21-02e9-4895-ad77-426ccd936b99","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.3831074876363285,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":60,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":25},"blend":0.2725,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:19.238Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":58,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.21,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.62,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.54,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.69,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.71,"4":0.25}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:19.392Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":58,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":59,"church":37,"people":58,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.31,"people":0.55,"treasury":3.18},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.14,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:21.231Z","v":3,"id":"447f4aed-91fe-4804-95cb-9893488640b4","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.462548074029111,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.37,"year":14,"after":{"army":60,"church":41,"people":73,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8049999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:21.231Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1874,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:21.371Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":680,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":288}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":60,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":2.03,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.86,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2554,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":288,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:23.244Z","v":3,"id":"3b732aa0-9337-4869-a32c-bd84173005ee","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.878917331564325,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":15,"after":{"army":62,"church":43,"people":81,"treasury":28},"blend":0.2575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:23.244Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":73,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.29,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.26,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.07,"3":0.65,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.43,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":260},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:23.504Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":73,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":60,"church":41,"people":73,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.4,"people":0.8,"treasury":2.47},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.11,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":260},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:25.238Z","v":3,"id":"1dfe36b9-9d97-4c8b-9c68-32e0fb50810e","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.66,"mock":false,"roll":0.4799016628888586,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.33,"year":16,"after":{"army":61,"church":41,"people":78,"treasury":23},"blend":0.5775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:25.238Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.57,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:25.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":62,"church":43,"people":81,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.78,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.98,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.32}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:27.231Z","v":3,"id":"cc7a66dd-20c8-42b0-9f03-f4b5438886f7","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.825585041434659,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":86,"treasury":14},"blend":0.4225,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:27.231Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":78,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.58,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.95,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.27,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.75,"4":0.23}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.73,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:27.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":78,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-13","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":61,"church":41,"people":78,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.75,"people":0.95,"treasury":3.19},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.91,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:29.227Z","v":3,"id":"78142372-ea45-464e-ad18-c55a3fd59a4e","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2156689906062077,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.01,"year":18,"after":{"army":59,"church":38,"people":73,"treasury":23},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:29.227Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.51,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.73,"4":0.07}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.29,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.76,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.33,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":300},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:29.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-14","treasury":"+8"},"Return it":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":785,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":86,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.15,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.68,"people":0.85,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2733,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":300},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:31.237Z","v":3,"id":"78b7ecca-3899-474e-b87a-c2ee7e3b151b","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.37065884217113076,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":62,"church":38,"people":80,"treasury":20},"blend":0.2725,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:31.237Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":73,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.48,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.94}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:31.402Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":73,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+2","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":59,"church":38,"people":73,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.86,"people":0.65,"treasury":3.92},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":1.91,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:33.256Z","v":3,"id":"6302ace9-11ca-4252-8595-7a0252913efd","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.3444566959425317,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.35,"year":20,"after":{"army":54,"church":33,"people":71,"treasury":7},"blend":0.47750000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:33.256Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.56,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.77,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":383},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:33.639Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-14"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":781,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":62,"church":38,"people":80,"treasury":20},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.48,"people":1.19,"treasury":0.82},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.06,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2729,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":383},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.04}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:35.237Z","v":3,"id":"b9344058-ead8-482b-9e62-8429e8b3ef59","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.904146418781349,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":54,"church":20,"people":62,"treasury":20},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:35.237Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.61,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.23,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.45,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.61,"4":0.27}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.55,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:35.424Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-14","people":"-10","treasury":"+12"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-3","church":"+9","people":"+3","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":54,"church":33,"people":71,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":0.81,"people":1.13,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.71,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-13,"people":-9,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-14,"people":-10,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:37.244Z","v":3,"id":"37ef87ee-1f5e-4d20-91a3-e90302b7f305","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.5369208111288255,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.73,"year":22,"after":{"army":48,"church":20,"people":72,"treasury":7},"blend":0.28,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:37.244Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.44,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.4,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.42,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:37.477Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-14"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":54,"church":20,"people":62,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.3,"people":1.09,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":1.94,"people":2.73,"treasury":0.84}},"tokens":2717,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-14}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:39.232Z","v":3,"id":"8f0a8c6f-e8e1-4c68-931e-c92f5a30d9c5","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.44,"mock":false,"roll":0.3971271569308825,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.99,"year":23,"after":{"army":37,"church":16,"people":60,"treasury":13},"blend":0.5775,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:39.232Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.17,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.22,"2":0.03,"3":0.57,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.55,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:39.477Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-11"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":787,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":48,"church":20,"people":72,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.58,"people":0.91,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.8,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2742,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.12}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:41.232Z","v":3,"id":"deb4e5d7-6f2f-457d-b3cd-1cbfce1279b8","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3492000949279328,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.58,"year":24,"after":{"army":38,"church":19,"people":67,"treasury":11},"blend":0.145,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:41.232Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.49,"2":0.24,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.36,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.38,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:41.401Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-8"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":37,"church":16,"people":60,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.42,"people":0.9,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.15,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:43.230Z","v":3,"id":"2fb45459-07c1-4708-a377-f8c918879859","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.41,"mock":false,"roll":0.17489207537921314,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.64,"year":25,"after":{"army":36,"church":16,"people":57,"treasury":12},"blend":0.4675,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:43.230Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1983,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.41,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.2,"2":0.49,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.83,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:43.401Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":806,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":38,"church":19,"people":67,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.65,"people":1.05,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":1.84,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2789,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.17}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:45.246Z","v":3,"id":"4e693e68-d81b-49eb-ae3a-5fecb5ec381a","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.22969869497527662,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.45,"year":26,"after":{"army":37,"church":17,"people":58,"treasury":13},"blend":0.1125,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:45.246Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9299999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.3,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.5,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:45.438Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":36,"church":16,"people":57,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.51,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.96,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:47.239Z","v":3,"id":"79d6061c-ebbb-4a2e-b2c0-b11bac77a569","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.8451066977883113,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":27,"after":{"army":34,"church":10,"people":50,"treasury":20},"blend":0.72,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:47.239Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.5,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.4,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.2,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.49,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.17,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:47.394Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Hang him":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":37,"church":17,"people":58,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.28,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.31,"people":1.23,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:49.256Z","v":3,"id":"a241dcf4-1e0f-4aa3-80e3-6df5d8750a86","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.04529045943712373,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.34,"year":28,"after":{"army":13,"church":17,"people":39,"treasury":21},"blend":0.8049999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:49.256Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1974,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.09,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.67,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.14,"2":0.04,"3":0.59,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.55,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.17,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.21,"2":0.23,"3":0.41000000000000003,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.21,"2":0.59,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:49.439Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"0"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+1","church":"-7","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":34,"church":10,"people":50,"treasury":20},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.17,"church":2.52,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.42,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2765,"applied":{"army":-21,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:51.240Z","v":3,"id":"1364b2e0-ba20-414d-8654-fa2692d130c1","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.2313756835570222,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.28,"year":29,"after":{"army":17,"church":14,"people":39,"treasury":19},"blend":0.1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:51.240Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.69,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.47,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.43,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.64,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.43,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:51.429Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+3","church":"-4","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":13,"church":17,"people":39,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.83,"people":1.36,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.25,"church":1.65,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2701,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":3,"church":-4,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:53.234Z","v":3,"id":"9f187b63-4157-4ce3-9fb8-85289c4763a3","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.49,"mock":false,"roll":0.601987202987438,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.76,"year":30,"after":{"army":17,"church":6,"people":48,"treasury":18},"blend":0.5575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:53.234Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.59,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.29,"2":0.05,"3":0.52,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.43,"2":0.27,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.45,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:53.396Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"0","people":"-15","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":801,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":17,"church":14,"people":39,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":2.04,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.26,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2750,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.01}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:55.243Z","v":3,"id":"c56d6640-8bb4-4fc6-8e4e-8d17407c271c","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.10110959073559833,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.71,"year":31,"after":{"army":11,"church":14,"people":44,"treasury":19},"blend":0.875,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:55.243Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":6,"danger":["church is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.53,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.07,"3":0.64,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.37,"2":0.06,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.17,"2":0.39,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.49,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.3,"2":0.41,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:55.405Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":6,"danger":["church is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-7","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-12","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 6: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":17,"church":6,"people":48,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":2.58,"people":1.56,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2732,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":8,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-12,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:57.249Z","v":3,"id":"c9e51a31-7e87-4357-a696-470d85d63192","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5745128471944836,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.98,"year":32,"after":{"army":9,"church":19,"people":47,"treasury":8},"blend":0.2525,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:57.249Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.57,"2":0.11,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.64,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.75,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.42,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.27,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.43,"2":0.04,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:57.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":11,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-10","church":"-12","people":"-13","treasury":"-8"},"Send grain":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+2","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":794,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":11,"church":14,"people":44,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.01,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.33,"people":2.17,"treasury":0.97}},"tokens":2730,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-12,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:15:59.241Z","v":3,"id":"6c34eff3-5f57-40ba-b58e-9bc3a509e933","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.21636208778877686,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.63,"year":33,"after":{"army":10,"church":24,"people":49,"treasury":10},"blend":0.1575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:59.241Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":47,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1979,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.55,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.53,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.54,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.49,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.61,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":272},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:15:59.513Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":47,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-12","church":"-10","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":819,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":9,"church":19,"people":47,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":1.18,"people":1.16,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.33,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2798,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":272},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-10,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.26,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:01.243Z","v":3,"id":"69e7d900-c9d5-4a3d-b522-fd665ba02e25","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.75},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.673781279497202,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.46,"year":34,"after":{"army":0,"church":25,"people":55,"treasury":13},"blend":0.2575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:01.243Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.38,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.45,"2":0.04,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.57,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.28,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.54,"2":0.28,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.38,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:01.433Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 75% of the time.","description":"Radulf V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-15","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":234}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"60e8db5d-b9ab-43a8-8559-2b7c7926e563","before":{"army":10,"church":24,"people":49,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.63,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":0.78,"church":2.02,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-14,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":234,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-15,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.09,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:03.238Z","v":3,"id":"922863ac-1761-42c9-acad-f8215ed11a7b","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.26565669345171217,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.59,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":53},"blend":0.21200000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:03.238Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.56,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":398},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:03.636Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.64,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.37,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2647,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":398},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:05.239Z","v":3,"id":"21b3a9a0-01bf-4bdb-b2ff-a649d990b693","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.5788626780496087,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.97,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":56,"people":55,"treasury":53},"blend":0.788,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:05.239Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.47,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.07,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.15,"3":0.68,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:05.423Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.97,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":1.37,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.41}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:07.245Z","v":3,"id":"5c7cae02-ad84-4c8d-a7a9-8ddaebfa689a","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.43238219549444645,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.82,"year":3,"after":{"army":55,"church":59,"people":66,"treasury":53},"blend":0.253,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:07.245Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":55,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.71,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.12,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.63,"2":0.06,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.26,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:07.422Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":55,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-14","treasury":"-10"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":53,"church":56,"people":55,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.66,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.15,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:09.241Z","v":3,"id":"0c88b010-b2b7-49ef-880e-a91010fd6b99","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.35726709755072705,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.39,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":62,"people":76,"treasury":58},"blend":0.23600000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:09.241Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.48,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.85,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.15,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.32,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:09.439Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":55,"church":59,"people":66,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.85,"people":1.36,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.02,"church":2.15,"people":2.75,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:11.240Z","v":3,"id":"9603e874-bc0f-4b23-b8a7-a877a02ee110","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.4698531988780439,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.03,"year":5,"after":{"army":47,"church":65,"people":84,"treasury":67},"blend":0.037,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:11.240Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":76,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.27,"2":0.07,"3":0.44,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.82,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.43,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.34,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.6,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.24,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:11.385Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":76,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-10","church":"+5","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":236}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":44,"church":62,"people":76,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":2.43,"people":1,"treasury":0.68},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":2.18,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":236,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":5,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:13.240Z","v":3,"id":"5c61e072-57e3-4b17-81f9-63af60ee17cb","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.79,"mock":false,"roll":0.31017940321621396,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.82,"year":6,"after":{"army":37,"church":65,"people":79,"treasury":72},"blend":0.7989999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:13.240Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.11,"3":0.84,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.58,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.51,"2":0.25,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.38,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.34,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:13.409Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}}}},"latencyMs":357}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":47,"church":65,"people":84,"treasury":67},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.9,"people":1.53,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":2.8,"church":1.94,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":357,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":10,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:15.245Z","v":3,"id":"18ea0bd7-b71a-4672-b7d7-9d387bf77818","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.8936430010552696,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.09,"year":7,"after":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":71},"blend":0.692,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:15.245Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":79,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.7,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:15.405Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":79,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":37,"church":65,"people":79,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.76,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:17.239Z","v":3,"id":"31788be3-fca0-43c5-be40-bc39e6564a85","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.9037963510441218,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.56,"year":8,"after":{"army":35,"church":62,"people":73,"treasury":66},"blend":0.791,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:17.239Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.62,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.34,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:17.422Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.91,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.87,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.11,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:19.243Z","v":3,"id":"6e026893-0a93-460e-94bc-05292b1e18dd","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.15882672890828498,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.48,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":63,"people":77,"treasury":71},"blend":0.15800000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:19.243Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":73,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.77,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:19.380Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":73,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":35,"church":62,"people":73,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.86,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.02,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:21.242Z","v":3,"id":"9488252c-5fb2-4e7e-89fb-95783c66dde1","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.19818878047946065,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.88,"year":10,"after":{"army":36,"church":57,"people":66,"treasury":68},"blend":0.29200000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:21.242Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":77,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.25,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.26,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.41,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.97,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.41,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:21.393Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":77,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+3","church":"+7","people":"+12","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":36,"church":63,"people":77,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.4,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":2.24,"church":2.57,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":12,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:23.242Z","v":3,"id":"7d9fea97-c66c-4dcf-bd1c-625fe0fd6c7d","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8668037391952703,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.66,"year":11,"after":{"army":37,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":72},"blend":0.21200000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:23.242Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":66,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.77,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.27,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:23.381Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":66,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":36,"church":57,"people":66,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.73,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.07,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:25.241Z","v":3,"id":"1041b815-9fea-48db-bcf5-854fbba27d56","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6126967014340681,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.97,"year":12,"after":{"army":38,"church":61,"people":77,"treasury":71},"blend":0.31200000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:25.241Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.49,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.82,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.29,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.08,"3":0.64,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.42,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:25.429Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":69,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-2"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":37,"church":59,"people":69,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.46,"people":0.93,"treasury":2.47},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.08,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:27.245Z","v":3,"id":"bcb302ab-6b34-4f4c-ba41-6e10fca133a4","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.748651503863287,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":38,"church":64,"people":89,"treasury":65},"blend":0.335,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:27.245Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":77,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.33,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.66,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.73,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.78,"4":0.18}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.34,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:27.399Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":77,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"-16","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":38,"church":61,"people":77,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.24,"people":0.65,"treasury":3.1},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.19,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.44}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":-16,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:29.258Z","v":3,"id":"6be0c595-fc71-4354-b373-b4de31a6e69b","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.32578425858928317,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":30,"church":51,"people":73,"treasury":87},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:29.258Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.38,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.15,"4":0.83}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:29.476Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+4","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-9","church":"-14","people":"-17","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":38,"church":64,"people":89,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":0.85,"people":0.58,"treasury":3.76},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.36,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-13,"people":-16,"treasury":22},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-14,"people":-17,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:31.248Z","v":3,"id":"fa3665ff-3a5a-4456-bfdc-0edfd3d055e1","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8499150524539303,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.56,"year":15,"after":{"army":21,"church":49,"people":63,"treasury":82},"blend":0.854,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:31.248Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.77,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.51,"2":0.12,"3":0.19,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:31.411Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-6"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":30,"church":51,"people":73,"treasury":87},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.77,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.05,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:33.245Z","v":3,"id":"8af1f431-5d82-4c82-8036-f87c308b1828","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.59,"mock":false,"roll":0.908271477773603,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.82,"year":16,"after":{"army":19,"church":50,"people":65,"treasury":83},"blend":0.659,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:33.245Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.2,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.58,"2":0.05,"3":0.23,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:33.394Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":21,"church":49,"people":63,"treasury":82},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.71,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":2.03,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.19}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:35.253Z","v":3,"id":"95bc944f-3419-4368-bed4-73a4cd506206","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.09512259498591136,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.91,"year":17,"after":{"army":17,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":88},"blend":0.2870000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:35.253Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.23,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.06,"3":0.67,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.23,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.38,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:35.479Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":19,"church":50,"people":65,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.23,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.49,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":6,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":5,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":-9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:37.265Z","v":3,"id":"97b81157-01c1-40b6-bbfa-68b7a9044ca6","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7463001384466024,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.42,"year":18,"after":{"army":18,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":88},"blend":0.133,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:37.265Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.62,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.75,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.5,"2":0.05,"3":0.18,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.51,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:37.446Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":17,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":88},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.77,"church":1.51,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2734,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:39.266Z","v":3,"id":"7ca86bfa-86a1-4f18-aba4-afe4f0d63554","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.37946591081081316,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.55,"year":19,"after":{"army":21,"church":41,"people":69,"treasury":75},"blend":0.858,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:39.266Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.55,"right":0.45}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.29,"2":0.11,"3":0.48,"4":0.05}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.65,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.4,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.13,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.63,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.1,"2":0.37,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:39.470Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-14"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":18,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":88},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.15,"church":1.76,"people":1.49,"treasury":0.86},"right":{"army":1.22,"church":1.73,"people":1.91,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2735,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:41.254Z","v":3,"id":"d887c51b-0105-4728-83b7-450f631c0fb9","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6833636094119055,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.95,"year":20,"after":{"army":22,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":79},"blend":0.327,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:41.254Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":69,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.15,"3":0.36,"4":0.12}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":266},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:41.520Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":69,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":21,"church":41,"people":69,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.84,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.2},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.08,"people":2.3,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":266},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:43.250Z","v":3,"id":"d91a3987-5e3e-41a9-8f67-d119fd1ab7ad","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.708884534741318,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.86,"year":21,"after":{"army":23,"church":47,"people":83,"treasury":79},"blend":0.265,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:43.250Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":74,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.56,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.69,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.67,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.32,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.07,"3":0.24,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:43.403Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":74,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+8","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-11","church":"-16","people":"-15","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":22,"church":43,"people":74,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":0.69,"people":0.71,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.28,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-16,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:45.272Z","v":3,"id":"3654bc29-4f58-4720-b600-9cef7ec5643c","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.3377604847754254,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":25,"church":43,"people":67,"treasury":92},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:45.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.55,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.35,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.05,"2":0.01,"3":0.71,"4":0.19}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.82,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:45.454Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+1","church":"-5","people":"-17","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":23,"church":47,"people":83,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.08,"church":1.55,"people":0.55,"treasury":2.97},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":2.04,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-4,"people":-16,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-17,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:47.254Z","v":3,"id":"479ebffb-3ead-4631-9186-5b67d39485d4","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.545590568635242,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.93,"year":23,"after":{"army":25,"church":38,"people":78,"treasury":89},"blend":0.2790000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:47.254Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.79,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.04,"3":0.56,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.75,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.24,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.16,"3":0.83,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.28,"3":0.34,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:47.473Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"-15","treasury":"+1"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":25,"church":43,"people":67,"treasury":92},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":2.27,"people":0.76,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.5,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":-15,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:49.271Z","v":3,"id":"1d643d1a-9387-422c-acdc-9ed4ed41da36","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.3201729711911383,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.27,"year":24,"after":{"army":22,"church":37,"people":73,"treasury":79},"blend":0.774,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:49.271Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.62,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:49.400Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":25,"church":38,"people":78,"treasury":89},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.83,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.04,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:51.272Z","v":3,"id":"d6544d05-a764-4ec1-a38c-af775df678f1","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.19420169848734137,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.84,"year":25,"after":{"army":18,"church":33,"people":68,"treasury":79},"blend":0.301,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:51.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":73,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.23,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.65,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.51,"2":0.26,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.44,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.11,"3":0.37,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:51.472Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":73,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":242}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":22,"church":37,"people":73,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.61,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.07,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":242,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:53.253Z","v":3,"id":"b3749e36-642a-48f0-b91e-20dd69867430","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.0690697962115081,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.64,"year":26,"after":{"army":9,"church":30,"people":57,"treasury":79},"blend":0.19200000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:53.253Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.51,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.65,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.19,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.57,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:53.414Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":18,"church":33,"people":68,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.66,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.91,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:55.259Z","v":3,"id":"3dc2c672-c29d-47c8-b464-6fa9d9796f0b","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.33187788209101976,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.01,"year":27,"after":{"army":7,"church":35,"people":69,"treasury":70},"blend":0.633,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:55.259Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.38,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.52,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.29,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:55.419Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":9,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Return it":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+11","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":9,"church":30,"people":57,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.3,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":1.48,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:57.258Z","v":3,"id":"c50dbf56-48f6-4f03-a71f-87d01745da1f","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5422671807634398,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.97,"year":28,"after":{"army":6,"church":42,"people":75,"treasury":61},"blend":0.29100000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:57.258Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.4,"2":0.04,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.63,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.7,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.38,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.4,"2":0.04,"3":0.31,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:57.408Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-15","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-6"},"Send grain":{"army":"-2","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":730,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":7,"church":35,"people":69,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.76,"church":1.24,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.52,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:16:59.261Z","v":3,"id":"6bf9f9a5-2140-48ba-87c0-72137affdc43","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.1803902313287553,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.75,"year":29,"after":{"army":3,"church":35,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.8899999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:59.261Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.59,"2":0.29,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.76,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.4,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.33,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:16:59.456Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":6,"church":42,"people":75,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.36,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":2.27,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:01.261Z","v":3,"id":"b2cbbe3b-26ff-485a-af1b-ecd6c67faa25","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.4311232318328677,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.45,"year":30,"after":{"army":1,"church":34,"people":59,"treasury":50},"blend":0.772,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:01.261Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.65,"1":0.28,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.34,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.24,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.33,"2":0.12,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.23,"2":0.14,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:01.450Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-19","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":3,"church":35,"people":63,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.87,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":0.45,"church":1.52,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-19,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.09,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:03.259Z","v":3,"id":"b6ecdf01-cf92-4125-9147-7efeef61a4d4","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Theobald V","wisdom":0.7},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8350861769723641,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":31,"after":{"army":0,"church":33,"people":64,"treasury":45},"blend":0.30000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:03.259Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Theobald V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.24,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.52,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.57,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.1,"2":0.34,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.03,"4":0.94}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.32,"2":0.47,"3":0.06,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:03.456Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 70% of the time.","description":"Theobald V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+4","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-17","church":"-3","people":"-17","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"689f6f29-71e2-46c2-9ffa-a31fde4d6ffd","before":{"army":1,"church":34,"people":59,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.56,"church":1.76,"people":0.62,"treasury":3.88},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.83,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.51}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-17,"church":-3,"people":-17,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:05.260Z","v":3,"id":"619c40af-d091-41ae-9eac-0648d2fd3195","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.846523365957172,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":53,"treasury":54},"blend":0.5446000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:05.260Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.2,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.48,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.59,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:05.478Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:07.256Z","v":3,"id":"d1518058-153f-4542-a694-5b013e0895e4","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.5139813623752922,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.86,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":50,"people":42,"treasury":66},"blend":0.538,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:07.256Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.61,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.14,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.9,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:07.474Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:09.257Z","v":3,"id":"efa09b6e-12e3-4019-a889-ad783f03188e","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.7836911291343922,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.91,"year":3,"after":{"army":41,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":75},"blend":0.5512,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:09.257Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":42,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.45,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.82,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.21,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.46,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.19,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:09.484Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":51,"church":50,"people":42,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":1.73,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.52},"right":{"army":1.05,"church":2.03,"people":2.71,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:11.265Z","v":3,"id":"eb135bbb-c94d-4b4c-84cf-96b241e71984","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.43376361516006123,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":45,"treasury":65},"blend":0.553,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:11.265Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.72,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.3,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:11.453Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":41,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.65,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.12,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:13.308Z","v":3,"id":"02388f5c-aba9-4d47-a0a5-1e12f05ec26d","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7181005642973455,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.42,"year":5,"after":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":47,"treasury":66},"blend":0.236,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:13.308Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":45,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:13.452Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":45,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":45,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.55,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.3,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:15.259Z","v":3,"id":"cdd9e0a9-1d0b-4d21-8688-29533f100633","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.01900194399685784,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.98,"year":6,"after":{"army":32,"church":53,"people":43,"treasury":56},"blend":0.5568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:15.259Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":47,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.47,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.44,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:15.468Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":47,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":47,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.92,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.81,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:17.260Z","v":3,"id":"8e877b2b-8327-4763-86d4-cd01102d3346","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.16419000597714217,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.94,"year":7,"after":{"army":30,"church":49,"people":37,"treasury":47},"blend":0.5122000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:17.260Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":43,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.27,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.65,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.21,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.5,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.68,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":222},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:17.482Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":43,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":32,"church":53,"people":43,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.57,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.02,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":222},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:19.280Z","v":3,"id":"4dc589f2-fa78-45cb-801f-d062a7a1e5f0","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3745503358245248,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.8,"year":8,"after":{"army":20,"church":41,"people":28,"treasury":41},"blend":0.43660000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:19.280Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":37,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.51,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.29,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:19.505Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":37,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":30,"church":49,"people":37,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.27,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.33,"people":2.6,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":4,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:21.268Z","v":3,"id":"5fb871d3-d248-4463-909e-111294205443","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.8618904854375968,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.16,"year":9,"after":{"army":13,"church":34,"people":16,"treasury":41},"blend":0.5004000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:21.268Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.38,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.94,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.89,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.27,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.21,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:21.420Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-3"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-8","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":510}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":20,"church":41,"people":28,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":2.23,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":1.34,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":510,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:23.267Z","v":3,"id":"70d7a241-dffc-45f3-81e5-820aa129dbc7","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.6649171307183148,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.86,"year":10,"after":{"army":2,"church":31,"people":25,"treasury":40},"blend":0.5288,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:23.267Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.28,"2":0.03,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.76,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.65,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.14,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.31,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:23.423Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+2","church":"-10","people":"-20","treasury":"-2"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-12","church":"-4","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":13,"church":34,"people":16,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":1.19,"people":0.33,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":0.99,"church":1.7,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2732,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":-20,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-4,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:25.265Z","v":3,"id":"3279fe32-cea6-4b88-99be-a30f75677974","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":0.46},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.0396931752142613,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.8,"year":11,"after":{"army":0,"church":32,"people":25,"treasury":41},"blend":0.8552000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:25.265Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:25.421Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 46% of the time.","description":"Dorothea V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"f061f275-d2d5-4e4e-8849-76fa0aa49854","before":{"army":2,"church":31,"people":25,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.99,"people":1.93,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.02,"church":1.62,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:27.268Z","v":3,"id":"0d640daa-e745-47d5-9fb4-45d7c1b062bf","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.8763116782748872,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.37,"year":1,"after":{"army":40,"church":60,"people":47,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5884,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:27.268Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.51,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.32,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:27.417Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-9","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.23,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":1.09,"church":2.76,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-4,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:29.282Z","v":3,"id":"8a869d45-e1ae-4af4-bf14-4b8be1825cbc","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.21643239917028678,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.56,"year":2,"after":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":31,"treasury":53},"blend":0.3728,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:29.282Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":47,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.45,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.38,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.58,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.68,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.08,"3":0.9,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"3":0.75,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:29.516Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":47,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-5"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"+1","church":"-6","people":"-17","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":40,"church":60,"people":47,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":1.52,"people":0.58,"treasury":2.69},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.23,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-5,"people":-16,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-17,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:31.264Z","v":3,"id":"6adc8679-0157-43cf-aea8-df8766718614","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.38591321835467096,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.19,"year":3,"after":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":34,"treasury":54},"blend":0.4747,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:31.264Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":31,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.68,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.67,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.7,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:31.429Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":31,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+8"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":31,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.72,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.76,"people":1.4,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:33.295Z","v":3,"id":"9ef12790-927e-46f4-8ef3-befd7dfe95b6","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6726328104608348,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":44,"treasury":64},"blend":0.6234,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:33.295Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":34,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.34,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.86,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:33.431Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":34,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+4","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":259}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":34,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.33,"church":1.53,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.03,"church":2.25,"people":2.73,"treasury":2.71}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":259,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-12,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:35.271Z","v":3,"id":"48b94a78-41bd-49a0-816f-968dd80ac2a6","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.0722906424113634,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":34,"treasury":56},"blend":0.6156,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:35.271Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":44,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.16,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.43,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.65,"2":0.2,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":127},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:35.398Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":44,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"+1","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":32,"church":57,"people":44,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.12,"church":1.37,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.1,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":127},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:37.271Z","v":3,"id":"454d9dcc-e569-46aa-affa-e9335cb71332","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.47053286748361667,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":35,"church":40,"people":21,"treasury":36},"blend":0.6078,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:37.271Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":34,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.2,"3":0.41,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.72,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.55,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.24,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:37.412Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":34,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"0","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-21"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":34,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1.1,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.25},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":2.09,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:39.269Z","v":3,"id":"b938fa8d-0668-4d5a-9404-f2d58ca20272","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.33,"mock":false,"roll":0.956151320691933,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.01,"year":7,"after":{"army":41,"church":32,"people":23,"treasury":32},"blend":0.1348,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:39.269Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":21,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.32,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.07,"3":0.65,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.52,"2":0.33,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.7,"2":0.06,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.4,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":231},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:39.500Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":21,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-11","church":"+6","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Stand":{"army":"+5","church":"-9","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":35,"church":40,"people":21,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":2.53,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":2.43,"church":1.23,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2575,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-8,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":231},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":5,"church":-9,"people":1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:41.282Z","v":3,"id":"a4c0708e-951b-4472-a0d0-be8db65258f5","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.43,"mock":false,"roll":0.4747723290791528,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.05,"year":8,"after":{"army":43,"church":32,"people":21,"treasury":44},"blend":0.19820000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:41.282Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":23,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.52,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.66,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.9,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.08,"3":0.86,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:41.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":23,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":41,"church":32,"people":23,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.95,"people":2.88,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.9,"people":1.75,"treasury":2.88}},"tokens":2565,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.14}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:43.267Z","v":3,"id":"055c44e3-53ce-4e9c-9a13-ac5f133cb003","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0337951806913237,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":32,"church":25,"people":8,"treasury":30},"blend":0.6117,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:43.267Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":21,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.7,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:43.431Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":21,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-12","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":43,"church":32,"people":21,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.32,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.75},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.05,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:45.281Z","v":3,"id":"55e73eb0-4bcb-4ff6-8279-c72bc880de99","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.009514266282839134,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.53,"year":10,"after":{"army":35,"church":23,"people":10,"treasury":26},"blend":0.7133,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:45.281Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.54,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.44,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.63,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.5700000000000001,"1":0.43,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.57,"2":0.08,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.4,"2":0.05,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:45.458Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"-5"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-11","people":"-19","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":32,"church":25,"people":8,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.73,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.1,"people":0.45,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-11,"people":-19,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:47.268Z","v":3,"id":"49229904-3c76-4641-a1fb-0c4e7afa0242","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9629813415463064,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":15,"treasury":25},"blend":0.61,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:47.268Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.16,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.56,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.57,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.38,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.66,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:47.472Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-5","church":"-10","people":"-17","treasury":"-12"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":35,"church":23,"people":10,"treasury":26},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.16,"people":0.59,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":1.98,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2669,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-10,"people":-17,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:49.272Z","v":3,"id":"cc0ec93d-88ab-4466-8f96-6be775156cf7","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Ivo V","wisdom":0.39},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4002346483171837,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":31,"church":15,"people":0,"treasury":21},"blend":0.61,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:49.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Ivo V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.03,"3":0.5,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.64,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.19,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.12,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.22,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.47,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:49.477Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 39% of the time.","description":"Ivo V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"-22","treasury":"-5"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-9","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4cfdb523-a024-4632-bc6f-e26539d82621","before":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":15,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":1.15,"people":0.19,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.26,"church":1.96,"people":2.65,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":-21,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":-22,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:51.271Z","v":3,"id":"1e7fa527-6bf0-42ad-aff5-ad31de2ae806","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.15526086356714064,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.26,"year":1,"after":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":50,"treasury":49},"blend":0.055000000000000014,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:51.271Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.29,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.6,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:51.457Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-7","church":"+2","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":722,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":2.19,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.8,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":2,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:53.265Z","v":3,"id":"10e8f88b-cc50-4d33-816c-3b085196da50","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.12204906875994403,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.23,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":44},"blend":0.4678,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:53.265Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":50,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.49,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.6,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.53,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.6,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:53.430Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":50,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-8","church":"+2","people":"0","treasury":"+4"},"Take the pass":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":47,"church":49,"people":50,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.08,"church":1.94,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":2.2,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-8,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.05}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:55.268Z","v":3,"id":"fa9377fd-c5af-43ca-a3ca-ec49b970bd41","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3100264630562477,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":49,"church":39,"people":53,"treasury":53},"blend":0.21280000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:55.268Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.56,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.72,"4":0.17}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.8,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.25,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.64,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.19,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:55.487Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":48,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-8","church":"+11","people":"-11","treasury":"-16"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":723,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":48,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2.95,"people":1.07,"treasury":0.64},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.1,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":219},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":11,"people":-11,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:57.287Z","v":3,"id":"6c5d80c4-1284-4fd4-8475-869525a58787","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.4194082297563082,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.59,"year":4,"after":{"army":50,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":55},"blend":0.9016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:57.287Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.65,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.51,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:57.510Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":49,"church":39,"people":53,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":2.14,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.62,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:17:59.272Z","v":3,"id":"0ec75a16-8fa2-4948-926c-3f1e617c01b8","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.83811222880676,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":35,"people":66,"treasury":54},"blend":0.24560000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:59.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.38,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.02,"3":0.67,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.14,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:17:59.500Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":55,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-7","church":"+7","people":"-13","treasury":"-6"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":50,"church":42,"people":55,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":2.6,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.31,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:01.291Z","v":3,"id":"ebf97a62-4981-4684-97c4-c72ae76c24c7","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6921488106602802,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":26,"people":77,"treasury":54},"blend":0.24560000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:01.291Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":66,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.48,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.03,"3":0.7,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.85,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.8099999999999999,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.61,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:01.483Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":51,"church":35,"people":66,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":2.59,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.19,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:03.272Z","v":3,"id":"8890be50-6c65-4e13-9945-56a07750f483","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.16659597172125418,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.29,"year":7,"after":{"army":58,"church":24,"people":76,"treasury":52},"blend":0.07680000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:03.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":77,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.35,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.37,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:03.416Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":50,"church":26,"people":77,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.48,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":2.62,"church":1.73,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-6,"people":-1,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":7,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.43,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:05.270Z","v":3,"id":"f8e6d585-6c59-45f1-84cb-19114b8beb03","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.09223634565229832,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0,"year":8,"after":{"army":58,"church":34,"people":76,"treasury":46},"blend":0.07379999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:05.270Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":76,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.49,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.14,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.23,"3":0.71,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.54,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.02,"3":0.58,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:05.440Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":76,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-4","church":"-18","people":"-8","treasury":"+7"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+9","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":58,"church":24,"people":76,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":0.54,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.55},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.73,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-18,"people":-8,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:07.274Z","v":3,"id":"727824b2-bd89-44c0-a8c5-3026a513f7a2","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.37,"mock":false,"roll":0.32812040241954143,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":65,"treasury":44},"blend":0.48340000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:07.274Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":76,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.03,"3":0.67,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.39,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.29,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.46,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:07.475Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":76,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":58,"church":34,"people":76,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.62,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.24,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.25}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:09.276Z","v":3,"id":"e3231a83-1c5a-4c60-acb5-438f2c66b90a","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.30716467404458525,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.95,"year":10,"after":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":45},"blend":0.17920000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:09.276Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":65,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.27,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:09.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":65,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":65,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.84,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.95,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:11.271Z","v":3,"id":"3c6657ab-bfab-49b5-b375-7520d116743f","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.7,"mock":false,"roll":0.08530605237224886,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":71,"treasury":35},"blend":0.754,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:11.271Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":64,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.31,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.27,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:11.412Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":64,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-3","church":"+12","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-4","church":"-12","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":54,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.96,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.04,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":13,"people":7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":12,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.39}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:13.274Z","v":3,"id":"e8b376a7-c82b-4e78-8eff-0a1f4318d1fa","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8661485346074378,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":79,"treasury":31},"blend":0.21280000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:13.274Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":71,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.33,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.23,"2":0.05,"3":0.53,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.79,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.05,"3":0.74,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.45,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.34,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:13.435Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":71,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"+2","people":"-15","treasury":"-7"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":71,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.19,"people":0.71,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":1.12,"people":2.62,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":2,"people":-15,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:15.280Z","v":3,"id":"e0ca5ab2-072d-41ae-b3bc-8192f177bef7","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.0735560482016997,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.6,"year":13,"after":{"army":45,"church":44,"people":65,"treasury":28},"blend":0.13260000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:15.280Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":79,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.17,"3":0.32,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.41,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:15.469Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":79,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-15","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":79,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.83,"people":0.73,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.02,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-14,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:17.272Z","v":3,"id":"757bcdad-2508-464f-b220-bada4bf1ba10","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.14130877482933246,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":11},"blend":0.22100000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:17.272Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":65,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.64,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.03,"3":0.53,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.18,"3":0.68,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.51,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.23,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":222},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:17.494Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":65,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"+6"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-11","church":"+8","people":"-14","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":45,"church":44,"people":65,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":2.66,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.54},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.26,"people":2.6,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":9,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":222},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":8,"people":-14,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:19.278Z","v":3,"id":"b8d25da7-23b7-422d-87a9-ae9b06df8a1f","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6327406871188133,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.36,"year":15,"after":{"army":37,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":17},"blend":0.06480000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:19.278Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.59,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.42,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.62,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.51,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:19.499Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-13","church":"-9","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":35,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.94,"church":1.24,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.63},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2.11,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:21.280Z","v":3,"id":"840e3af9-35a8-4fc7-9ea8-9b7c5d7d795e","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.23416897568263018,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.53,"year":16,"after":{"army":37,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":15},"blend":0.10360000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:21.280Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.84,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:21.472Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":37,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.84,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.9,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:23.276Z","v":3,"id":"c369e8c3-bb7e-4079-9067-5f5859b1c116","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4986395713343552,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.04,"year":17,"after":{"army":29,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":16},"blend":0.007200000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:23.276Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.03,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.62,"2":0.27,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.68,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.56,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.15,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.35,"2":0.29,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.21,"2":0.38,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:23.428Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":250}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":37,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.18,"church":1.39,"people":0.68,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.24,"church":1.94,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":250,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:25.275Z","v":3,"id":"0ccc5caf-72f2-4223-a241-a647eb7536d9","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.7681412105165286,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.16,"year":18,"after":{"army":26,"church":54,"people":64,"treasury":7},"blend":0.8241999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:25.275Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.35,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.38,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.47,"2":0.11,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.45,"2":0.36,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.68,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.63,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.49,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":291},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:25.567Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-10"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":29,"church":55,"people":66,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.86,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":1.55,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.65}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":291},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-16}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:27.282Z","v":3,"id":"c8b35863-c3e8-4d02-a68d-83197ae600ce","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.665179022259063,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.05,"year":19,"after":{"army":24,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":4},"blend":0.0172,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:27.282Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.33,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.49,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.26,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:27.457Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":26,"church":54,"people":64,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.21,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.52,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":0,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:29.295Z","v":3,"id":"696075e3-a454-4ae0-8bb8-663117f1edf4","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.11614101535558485,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":3,"church":64,"people":53,"treasury":9},"blend":0.9918,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:29.295Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":4},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.42,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.14,"2":0.04,"3":0.41,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.5,"2":0.13,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.71,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.41,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.15,"2":0.19,"3":0.55,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:29.461Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":4},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+2","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":24,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":4},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.2,"church":2.17,"people":1.04,"treasury":2.35},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.23,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2729,"applied":{"army":-21,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":2,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:31.277Z","v":3,"id":"3d1269c8-c5aa-4dac-b6b7-de7cf68d0da0","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa II","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.18372971982708486,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.88,"year":21,"after":{"army":0,"church":63,"people":51,"treasury":4},"blend":0.16660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:31.277Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":53,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Philippa II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.55,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.34,"2":0.49,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.29,"2":0.28,"3":0.29,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.62,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.58,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.42,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.22,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:31.475Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c198e188-f249-4138-b7d4-94cc40c29bf9","before":{"army":3,"church":64,"people":53,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.91,"church":1.8,"people":1.1,"treasury":0.7},"right":{"army":1.32,"church":1.8,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2717,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:33.289Z","v":3,"id":"a9cf34c2-8611-4d0c-9dd2-bd87f7bf4aed","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3754070369453255,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.83,"year":1,"after":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":36,"treasury":39},"blend":0.5511999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:33.289Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.32,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.57,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.72,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.57,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.21,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:33.434Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-15","treasury":"-12"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+2","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.56,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.18,"people":2.87,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:35.301Z","v":3,"id":"46c9c51d-a854-47be-945c-bfcaf51d29e9","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5241368572034641,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.19,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":54,"people":38,"treasury":40},"blend":0.13219999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:35.301Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":36,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.21,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.41,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.75,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:35.454Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":36,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":36,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.44,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.59,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:37.294Z","v":3,"id":"8f8de9dc-c182-4500-950f-3a11d371274c","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3811151595160214,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":42,"church":47,"people":22,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6601999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:37.294Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":38,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.45,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.58,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.58,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.25,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.07,"3":0.58,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.44,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:37.489Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":38,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":46,"church":54,"people":38,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.34,"people":0.59,"treasury":2.35},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:39.290Z","v":3,"id":"7a3e4d5b-c15a-478e-9617-77f2d2ba3d19","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.8206081546733703,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.6,"year":4,"after":{"army":37,"church":45,"people":22,"treasury":51},"blend":0.41979999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:39.290Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":22,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.42,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.47,"2":0.44,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.69,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.58,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.28,"3":0.56,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:39.482Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":22,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":42,"church":47,"people":22,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.77,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.5,"church":1.75,"people":1.88,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:41.292Z","v":3,"id":"d615b3dc-4885-45e8-bea5-91a9ad8a3284","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6218940227836973,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.98,"year":5,"after":{"army":26,"church":43,"people":18,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6638,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:41.292Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.35,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.14,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:41.470Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":37,"church":45,"people":22,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.75,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":2.6,"church":1.86,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":7,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:43.281Z","v":3,"id":"962dbc12-0030-4043-8661-da88acc3ecc5","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.9433259648994565,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.53,"year":6,"after":{"army":26,"church":41,"people":10,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6762,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:43.281Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:43.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":26,"church":43,"people":18,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.71,"people":1.57,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.78,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:45.300Z","v":3,"id":"48d610c2-21c6-450e-b4c7-fd672d71edd0","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.62,"mock":false,"roll":0.1120423613597612,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.53,"year":7,"after":{"army":17,"church":38,"people":5,"treasury":47},"blend":0.5606,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:45.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.32,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.39,"2":0.38,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.5,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.3,"3":0.33,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:45.509Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-6","people":"-8","treasury":"-3"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"left":0.62,"right":0.38}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":26,"church":41,"people":10,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.64,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":2.44,"church":1.49,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":5,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.24}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:47.282Z","v":3,"id":"ae808081-a095-4c25-acb8-e5c4f4acf101","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2579162939614019,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.71,"year":8,"after":{"army":15,"church":34,"people":1,"treasury":42},"blend":0.4685999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:47.282Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.37,"2":0.44,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":267},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:47.549Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":17,"church":38,"people":5,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.62,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.94,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":267},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:49.300Z","v":3,"id":"026c1ab3-3e5a-46b7-a9c1-72f9c9f99ac9","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":0.34},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.32047582261038254,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":10,"church":28,"people":0,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6533999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:49.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":1,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Aldric IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.41,"2":0.49,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.39,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.55,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.63,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.11,"3":0.37,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:49.477Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":1,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Aldric IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-6","church":"-7","people":"-8","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 1: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d834ca26-e647-41a5-a9d9-5b62e7442533","before":{"army":15,"church":34,"people":1,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.38,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.13},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.97,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2733,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:51.294Z","v":3,"id":"33245e76-11b0-4171-9e4b-39e2995c2911","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.6308968184019532,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":39,"treasury":48},"blend":0.8523999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:51.294Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.62,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.1,"3":0.51,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.27,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.48,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.41,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:51.436Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"22c54f84-cabb-4570-8541-207e78c2f54e","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":2.16,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.39,"church":1.42,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.21}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:53.287Z","v":3,"id":"7492a441-02c8-4f45-9432-d2a7e81cd91f","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.25160097836558437,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.8,"year":2,"after":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":25,"treasury":47},"blend":0.6262000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:53.287Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":39,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.43,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.29,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.15,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.5,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:53.445Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":39,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"22c54f84-cabb-4570-8541-207e78c2f54e","before":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":39,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.26,"people":0.73,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.9,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:55.288Z","v":3,"id":"c638c57c-6307-4d00-8f19-a197043051a6","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4093200606946268,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.81,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":20,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6362,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:55.288Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":25,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:55.508Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":25,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"},"See him today":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"22c54f84-cabb-4570-8541-207e78c2f54e","before":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":25,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.81,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.95,"people":1.97,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:57.300Z","v":3,"id":"57a6eece-855e-45af-bde8-c822d4322019","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.22},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.22878635776659828,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.09,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":20,"treasury":45},"blend":0.0702,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:57.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.58,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.47,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.74,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.68,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:57.453Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"22c54f84-cabb-4570-8541-207e78c2f54e","before":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":20,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.48,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.92,"people":1.93,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:18:59.291Z","v":3,"id":"cea3d61b-fe2b-4f7b-b6eb-62add8479dba","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":0.22},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4869761685601779,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":31,"people":0,"treasury":28},"blend":0.78,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:59.291Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.71,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.7,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.74,"1":0.26,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.45,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:18:59.456Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Beatrix I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-10","church":"-14","people":"-21","treasury":"-18"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":245}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"22c54f84-cabb-4570-8541-207e78c2f54e","before":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":20,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":0.8,"people":0.26,"treasury":0.5},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":2.04,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2655,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-13,"people":-20,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":245,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-14,"people":-21,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:01.284Z","v":3,"id":"8196c094-5c8e-40c2-8171-b59bb3848feb","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9095838558773142,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":60,"treasury":43},"blend":0.2568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:01.284Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.65,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.92,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.13,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.03,"3":0.64,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":229},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:01.513Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.67,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.57},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":229},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:03.300Z","v":3,"id":"2f1df9f1-ff15-48d6-84b0-b9ca95423a92","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.47080188518497446,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.16,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":65,"treasury":51},"blend":0.0664,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:03.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:03.452Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":60,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.92,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.05,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:05.290Z","v":3,"id":"af8892bf-0cc9-4a9d-afd5-13084f1d3acd","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.8518662798735803,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.67,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":43},"blend":0.21760000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:05.290Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":65,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.71,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:05.473Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":65,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":65,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.78,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.14,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:07.286Z","v":3,"id":"c470d9a8-2214-4663-8dfe-234bb5bdd3a7","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9135173909772303,"step":12,"trap":0.08,"want":0.76,"year":4,"after":{"army":55,"church":58,"people":81,"treasury":44},"blend":0.1984,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:07.286Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":77,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.08,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.9400000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.76,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:07.414Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":77,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":280}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":53,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.84,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.09,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":280,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:09.304Z","v":3,"id":"cf9877ef-21cc-4f4c-bdd5-b0ae3744ab80","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7690837342181296,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.78,"year":5,"after":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":67,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9438,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:09.304Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.23,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.31,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.71,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.46,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.08,"3":0.76,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:09.494Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"+2","church":"-7","people":"-15","treasury":"-4"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":269}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":55,"church":58,"people":81,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":1.38,"people":0.79,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.49,"people":2.72,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":269,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:11.304Z","v":3,"id":"ae654d52-e417-43df-be51-9d537bb9d183","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.48136905861243995,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.81,"year":6,"after":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":80,"treasury":30},"blend":0.2406,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:11.304Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.81,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.42,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.37,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:11.479Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":58,"church":52,"people":67,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.45,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.43,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:13.291Z","v":3,"id":"adced28a-fe70-48e6-9dab-4481ef89c992","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.26659583854492475,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":65,"treasury":52},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:13.291Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.75,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.71,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.54,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.53,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.58,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.11,"4":0.86}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:13.427Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-14","people":"-16","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":80,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":0.87,"people":0.7,"treasury":3.78},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.37,"people":2.29,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-13,"people":-15,"treasury":22},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-14,"people":-16,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:15.311Z","v":3,"id":"24d6e0df-24b7-40bf-bbe7-989a869bced0","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6708880163420323,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.53,"year":8,"after":{"army":50,"church":46,"people":70,"treasury":53},"blend":0.13219999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:15.311Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":65,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.65,"2":0.07,"3":0.18,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.59,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:15.499Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":65,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:17.291Z","v":3,"id":"8c8b453e-fecb-48b0-908d-a02b7d3c4f0b","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.7080061858275535,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.27,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":70,"treasury":57},"blend":0.7068,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:17.291Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":70,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.51,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:17.460Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:19.290Z","v":3,"id":"0f72c722-9ca5-4a5d-9b9f-3539593487c0","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.24385775668961207,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.68,"year":10,"after":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":77,"treasury":65},"blend":0.173,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:19.290Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.68,"right":0.32}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.82,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.43,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.31,"3":0.65,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":272},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:19.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":70,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.65,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.19,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":272},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:21.295Z","v":3,"id":"bea834e7-860b-47a5-8355-081d2256abe8","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5781896260285422,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":85,"treasury":65},"blend":0.23899999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:21.295Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":77,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.77,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.3,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.08,"3":0.63,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:21.467Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":77,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-15","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":77,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.37,"people":0.79,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.1,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:23.296Z","v":3,"id":"152fb6f7-06a7-4cf5-b090-c49bfc1c459a","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.9374602164980095,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.58,"year":12,"after":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":87,"treasury":67},"blend":0.8842,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:23.296Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.3,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.74,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:23.520Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-10","church":"-10","people":"-20","treasury":"-13"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":220}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":53,"church":52,"people":85,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.17,"people":0.32,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.04,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2655,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":220,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-10,"people":-20,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:25.301Z","v":3,"id":"5721507f-1ca3-4efe-9375-9a3bde7a575a","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.56,"mock":false,"roll":0.592338910491667,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.28,"year":13,"after":{"army":57,"church":51,"people":84,"treasury":65},"blend":0.49840000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:25.301Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.27,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.48,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.53,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:25.503Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":87,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.97,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":2.34,"church":1.79,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":4,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.11}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:27.300Z","v":3,"id":"af9231e8-96d1-4eef-9955-86244f2edf85","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.054227883809728095,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":58,"church":38,"people":70,"treasury":80},"blend":0.9978,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:27.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.64,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.39,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.43,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.64,"4":0.31}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:27.477Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"0","church":"-14","people":"-15","treasury":"+14"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":57,"church":51,"people":84,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":0.82,"people":0.72,"treasury":3.2},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.55,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-13,"people":-14,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-14,"people":-15,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:29.303Z","v":3,"id":"56962637-4a9e-4513-8f21-0500c3d15096","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.14384922318530902,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.01,"year":15,"after":{"army":58,"church":44,"people":82,"treasury":72},"blend":0.7822,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:29.303Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.46,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.35,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.22,"3":0.71,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:29.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"+8"},"Return it":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":58,"church":38,"people":70,"treasury":80},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":2.38,"people":2.94,"treasury":1.28},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.63,"people":1,"treasury":2.69}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:31.294Z","v":3,"id":"fe20f3a7-0117-4a09-b25e-c7c487d3be43","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8284727321669221,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.61,"year":16,"after":{"army":59,"church":43,"people":76,"treasury":67},"blend":0.181,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:31.294Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.64,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.58,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":246},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:31.541Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":58,"church":44,"people":82,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.93,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.82,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":246},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:33.304Z","v":3,"id":"1c2fe18d-aa82-429d-adae-4b2a1b1850e5","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8649142001212946,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.39,"year":17,"after":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":61},"blend":0.8502,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:33.304Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":76,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.61,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.48,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:33.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":76,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":59,"church":43,"people":76,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.99,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.84,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.23,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:35.306Z","v":3,"id":"34762e21-a220-483a-9cb8-5df204407373","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9616267677936521,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":18,"after":{"army":58,"church":45,"people":83,"treasury":55},"blend":0.2512,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:35.306Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":71,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.26,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.62,"2":0.25,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.74,"4":0.21}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.34,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:35.465Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":71,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":71,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.31,"people":0.62,"treasury":3.12},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.16,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:37.311Z","v":3,"id":"01f98905-180e-45d7-9389-1eea9467d711","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7918403008665249,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.79,"year":19,"after":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":73,"treasury":52},"blend":0.946,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:37.311Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.44,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.66,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:37.532Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+2"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:39.300Z","v":3,"id":"99af42f9-c82d-4dd9-88dd-e69b21407bd6","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.4716260750560848,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.44,"year":20,"after":{"army":57,"church":32,"people":77,"treasury":50},"blend":0.2918,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:39.300Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.9,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.26,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.4,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.21,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:39.443Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:41.309Z","v":3,"id":"5c8873f1-98c0-4596-b02e-08646c27338b","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.8486980699497657,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":21,"after":{"army":59,"church":32,"people":78,"treasury":47},"blend":0.2724,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:41.309Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.41,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.04,"3":0.71,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:41.468Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":57,"church":32,"people":77,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.79,"people":1.51,"treasury":2.72},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.95,"people":2,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:43.298Z","v":3,"id":"0ac004d8-cda8-4aa0-ac03-0dcf578a8db9","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.21119196336218038,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.9,"year":22,"after":{"army":60,"church":25,"people":59,"treasury":45},"blend":0.2526,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:43.298Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":78,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.22,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.59,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.31,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":3.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.87,"4":0.1}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.36,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:43.513Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":78,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+13","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"-20","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":59,"church":32,"people":78,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.31,"people":0.31,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.25,"people":3.05,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:45.313Z","v":3,"id":"12faca21-f90e-417f-93e4-e525698314f3","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.3621779325825203,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":23,"after":{"army":58,"church":26,"people":68,"treasury":36},"blend":0.3448,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:45.313Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":59,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.56,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.96,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.22,"3":0.74,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.82,"4":0.16}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:45.511Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":59,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+3","church":"-2","people":"-12","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":60,"church":25,"people":59,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.8,"people":0.96,"treasury":3.13},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.99,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:47.301Z","v":3,"id":"fca66f87-8c20-4ba0-bcd4-2851d9ecc175","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.18079701295868844,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.6,"year":24,"after":{"army":59,"church":27,"people":71,"treasury":41},"blend":0.13979999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:47.301Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":68,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.67,"2":0.21,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.62,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:47.450Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":68,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":290}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":58,"church":26,"people":68,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.74,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.04,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":290,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:49.297Z","v":3,"id":"543c919a-c23d-4eb9-b7b0-4274bb5f8495","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.2966344622236854,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":25,"after":{"army":59,"church":31,"people":83,"treasury":34},"blend":0.259,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:49.297Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":71,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.59,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.58,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.09,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.01,"3":0.75,"4":0.17}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:49.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":71,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-8"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":59,"church":27,"people":71,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.34,"people":0.58,"treasury":3.02},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.22,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:51.303Z","v":3,"id":"a6d6a07d-6cf1-4d01-9768-06ef4bb846ce","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6355275842531094,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.6,"year":26,"after":{"army":57,"church":27,"people":71,"treasury":32},"blend":0.912,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:51.303Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.43,"2":0.42,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.73,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.5,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.17,"2":0.27,"3":0.41,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.24,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:51.439Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":245}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":59,"church":31,"people":83,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.56,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.77,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":245,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:53.298Z","v":3,"id":"5b7386ac-59c7-487e-86f8-683711235203","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.5479823821391798,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.96,"year":27,"after":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":75,"treasury":34},"blend":0.96,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:53.298Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":71,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.44,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.05,"3":0.5,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.15,"3":0.67,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:53.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":71,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":57,"church":27,"people":71,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.95,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.47,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:55.309Z","v":3,"id":"d5a16388-7fa2-4f55-809b-0aed607d8d27","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.47655276536209135,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.97,"year":28,"after":{"army":66,"church":27,"people":74,"treasury":31},"blend":0.31479999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:55.309Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":75,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.35,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.39,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.14,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:55.486Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":58,"church":27,"people":75,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.8,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":2.62,"church":1.9,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":8,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":7,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:57.302Z","v":3,"id":"b19da1e9-5a93-463e-8912-cf3a94549664","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8637688349267658,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.95,"year":29,"after":{"army":67,"church":28,"people":78,"treasury":35},"blend":0.23239999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:57.302Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":74,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.43,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.65,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.12,"3":0.39999999999999997,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:57.451Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":74,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":66,"church":27,"people":74,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.87,"people":1.69,"treasury":2.32},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.03,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:19:59.321Z","v":3,"id":"6be07afd-32cf-46b4-a531-c5d0152f85d4","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5768907327727022,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":71,"church":28,"people":87,"treasury":33},"blend":0.2668,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:59.321Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":78,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.52,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.62,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.27,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.94}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.28,"2":0.55,"3":0.09,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:19:59.491Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":78,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+3","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":67,"church":28,"people":78,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.83,"people":0.66,"treasury":3.91},"right":{"army":2.22,"church":1.94,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":4,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":3,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:01.301Z","v":3,"id":"5cd02655-ab36-4990-8923-76b50c5d3da7","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.32257999300115237,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0,"year":31,"after":{"army":73,"church":27,"people":80,"treasury":45},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:01.301Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.57,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.58,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:01.475Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+11"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":269}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":71,"church":28,"people":87,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.65,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.85,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.89}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":269,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:03.319Z","v":3,"id":"cc56637c-94b7-4715-98b0-bb446f11e8c8","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.67,"mock":false,"roll":0.17045890288289223,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.32,"year":32,"after":{"army":76,"church":20,"people":79,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5930000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:03.319Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.45,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.39,"2":0.17,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:03.537Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":73,"church":27,"people":80,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.13,"church":1.3,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.12,"church":2.71,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-7,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.34}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:05.308Z","v":3,"id":"51dde8cf-4a4d-405c-925b-734f1b5a2d58","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4134967405943495,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.18,"year":33,"after":{"army":55,"church":26,"people":67,"treasury":46},"blend":0.8196,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:05.308Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.65,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.17,"2":0.05,"3":0.49,"4":0.17}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.55,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.74,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.54,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.27,"2":0.2,"3":0.44,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.59,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:05.500Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+5","people":"-13","treasury":"+1"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+2","church":"-10","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":76,"church":20,"people":79,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.13,"church":2.43,"people":0.95,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.2,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-21,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":5,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:07.308Z","v":3,"id":"78358c48-d952-4669-b59f-b804c58864e8","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5575710296489353,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.9,"year":34,"after":{"army":53,"church":26,"people":70,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9702,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:07.308Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":67,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.36,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.62,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.09,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.78,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.16,"3":0.42,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:07.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":67,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":55,"church":26,"people":67,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.92,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.61,"people":1,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:09.327Z","v":3,"id":"f74942d8-8784-4443-a7f7-be4caaefd4cb","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4695862081437885,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.34,"year":35,"after":{"army":54,"church":24,"people":70,"treasury":49},"blend":0.08259999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:09.327Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":70,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.58,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.58,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.5,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.42,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.17,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.73,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.56,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:09.474Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":70,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-11","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"},"Turn them away":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":53,"church":26,"people":70,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.17,"people":0.87,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.78,"people":1.94,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:11.320Z","v":3,"id":"0af83365-616b-4915-8d7a-de606c0c88e1","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.45,"mock":false,"roll":0.4589962377404573,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.47,"year":36,"after":{"army":49,"church":25,"people":71,"treasury":52},"blend":0.4544,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:11.320Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.46,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.36,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.5,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.39,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.68,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":266},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:11.586Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Take the pass":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":54,"church":24,"people":70,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.11,"church":1.92,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":2,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":266},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.11}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:13.309Z","v":3,"id":"29aed5fe-fdbf-44c7-9573-7c9eff7740b2","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.1826710866107868,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.37,"year":37,"after":{"army":51,"church":18,"people":80,"treasury":58},"blend":0.14379999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:13.309Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":71,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.61,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.06,"3":0.59,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.85,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.24,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.58,"2":0.02,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.41,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":428},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:13.737Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":71,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+1","church":"-8","people":"+8","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-12","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":49,"church":25,"people":71,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":2.5,"people":0.97,"treasury":0.77},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.35,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":9,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":428},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":8,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:15.325Z","v":3,"id":"d207a01d-b3f7-43f1-b929-8286490119a6","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.8308928683218819,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.83,"year":38,"after":{"army":48,"church":19,"people":81,"treasury":58},"blend":0.3386,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:15.325Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.26,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.07,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.56,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:15.497Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":51,"church":18,"people":80,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.49,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.65,"church":1.96,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2712,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.59}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:17.317Z","v":3,"id":"39b96c3a-0ff6-4909-8a54-a338aa389dab","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.7925211417391025,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.2,"year":39,"after":{"army":49,"church":21,"people":85,"treasury":65},"blend":0.1454,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:17.317Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1960,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.63,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.56,"4":0.05}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.49,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.31,"3":0.45,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.35,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:17.531Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"+2","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":785,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":48,"church":19,"people":81,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":1.26,"people":2.19,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.07,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":2,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:19.328Z","v":3,"id":"f17adf79-eb32-46e0-896b-bb43f74704c0","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.600520197266529,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.51,"year":40,"after":{"army":49,"church":21,"people":84,"treasury":65},"blend":0.43979999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:19.328Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:19.534Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":49,"church":21,"people":85,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.89,"people":1.93,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.95,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:21.326Z","v":3,"id":"c9c888bc-d653-45cb-aa2f-7cb1442e103c","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.11818257583948699,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.74,"year":41,"after":{"army":44,"church":27,"people":78,"treasury":68},"blend":0.9428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:21.326Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.61,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.06,"3":0.6,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.49,"2":0.37,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.08,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.31,"3":0.48,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.51,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:21.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-7","treasury":"+2"},"Stand":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":49,"church":21,"people":84,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":2.39,"people":1.43,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.24,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-7,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:23.311Z","v":3,"id":"be36616a-a067-4d94-83ed-bc8b48bfd33e","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.6943214192393157,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.8,"year":42,"after":{"army":45,"church":18,"people":89,"treasury":68},"blend":0.2384,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:23.311Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":78,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.73,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.1,"3":0.86,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.17,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:23.532Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":78,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+7","people":"-15","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":44,"church":27,"people":78,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":2.57,"people":0.77,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.17,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":7,"people":-15,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:25.315Z","v":3,"id":"4f015a41-d530-48c2-b1fd-ec3925d00737","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.47383938296824035,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.52,"year":43,"after":{"army":44,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":69},"blend":0.13779999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:25.315Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.18,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":232},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:25.547Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"-2","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":45,"church":18,"people":89,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.23,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.59,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":232},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:27.325Z","v":3,"id":"215a3663-a756-4cd0-acd6-a30ba4aeb876","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.11407981336870443,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.51,"year":44,"after":{"army":35,"church":25,"people":85,"treasury":71},"blend":0.7517999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:27.325Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.26,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.36,"2":0.36,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.42,"2":0.38,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.31,"3":0.38,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:27.516Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+7","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":44,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":69},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.84,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.11},"right":{"army":2.55,"church":1.67,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":7,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.65}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:29.326Z","v":3,"id":"52da042f-c446-4546-9233-7a51b96fe0d8","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.16767268249358214,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.74,"year":45,"after":{"army":34,"church":22,"people":76,"treasury":70},"blend":0.9428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:29.326Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.42,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.65,"2":0.22,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.52,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:29.504Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-2"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":279}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":35,"church":25,"people":85,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.63,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.05,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":279,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:31.314Z","v":3,"id":"29c293a6-c449-42cb-a861-49df9db00148","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.10690416940766467,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.5,"year":46,"after":{"army":31,"church":21,"people":71,"treasury":63},"blend":0.1334,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:31.314Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"people":76,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.77,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.66,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:31.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"people":76,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":34,"church":22,"people":76,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.8,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.99,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:33.323Z","v":3,"id":"ef3276f7-497b-428d-b783-cf92fc08c8b4","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8165961358443177,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.34,"year":47,"after":{"army":32,"church":22,"people":73,"treasury":66},"blend":0.1138,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:33.323Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":71,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.19,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.59,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.3,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:33.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":71,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"0","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":31,"church":21,"people":71,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.02,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.98,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:35.308Z","v":3,"id":"4fdd6572-c1da-4aa5-8030-c8c8a6959717","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6432296554425272,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.71,"year":48,"after":{"army":34,"church":13,"people":84,"treasury":66},"blend":0.17959999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:35.308Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"people":73,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.58,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.56,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.04,"3":0.82,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.57,"2":0.21,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.45,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":254},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:35.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"people":73,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"+3","people":"-16","treasury":"-8"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":32,"church":22,"people":73,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.22,"people":0.66,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.18,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":254},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":3,"people":-16,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:37.326Z","v":3,"id":"619539cc-23d6-41a6-a799-3c0989b9166d","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.59,"mock":false,"roll":0.5937844429367389,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.51,"year":49,"after":{"army":35,"church":13,"people":83,"treasury":64},"blend":0.5724,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:37.326Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.96,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:37.503Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":34,"church":13,"people":84,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.9,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.88,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2724,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.18}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:39.315Z","v":3,"id":"00512a97-bdd8-47b4-8f87-13effe380c4b","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.77,"mock":false,"roll":0.21542668880801852,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.03,"year":50,"after":{"army":30,"church":21,"people":72,"treasury":50},"blend":0.6072000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:39.315Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.16,"2":0.02,"3":0.42,"4":0.28}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.79,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.41,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.46,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.65,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:39.513Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":13,"danger":["church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":767,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":35,"church":13,"people":83,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.57,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.72},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.16,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-11,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:41.324Z","v":3,"id":"eecbc75e-4824-4c1d-b5bb-7aa711d9c47e","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.09861859218508484,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.08,"year":51,"after":{"army":31,"church":23,"people":75,"treasury":50},"blend":0.7507999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:41.324Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":72,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.74,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:41.526Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":72,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":267}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":30,"church":21,"people":72,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":2.07,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.88,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":267,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:43.311Z","v":3,"id":"db97da36-01ac-4503-a23b-6f1260723200","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.06917038544648357,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.88,"year":52,"after":{"army":31,"church":35,"people":83,"treasury":55},"blend":0.9268,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:43.311Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.83,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.21,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.24,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.13,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.57,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.28,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:43.483Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-1","church":"+11","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":31,"church":23,"people":75,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":2.94,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.63,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":0,"church":12,"people":8,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":11,"people":7,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:45.324Z","v":3,"id":"ea13dce5-17e8-4e1f-bd2d-f817b3eb6082","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.11585451156605209,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":53,"after":{"army":31,"church":30,"people":66,"treasury":64},"blend":0.9922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:45.324Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.56,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.49,"2":0.05,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.54,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.45,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.75,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:45.560Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-18","treasury":"+8"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":295}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":31,"church":35,"people":83,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.48,"people":0.54,"treasury":2.64},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.94,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-17,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":295,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-18,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:47.324Z","v":3,"id":"e98a9774-e3ac-4a35-9869-fc7200d63e7c","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.3017275636730179,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.45,"year":54,"after":{"army":32,"church":32,"people":67,"treasury":59},"blend":0.1614,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:47.324Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":66,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.86,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.7,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:47.540Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":66,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":31,"church":30,"people":66,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.57,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.1,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.09,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:49.310Z","v":3,"id":"502ad7c2-823f-4c6b-9b13-b8fc081637fb","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6986410479524578,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.41,"year":55,"after":{"army":27,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":58},"blend":0.10579999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:49.310Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":67,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.13,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.74,"2":0.04,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.42,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:49.509Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":67,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+3","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":32,"church":32,"people":67,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.22,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.46,"church":1.97,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.19,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:51.325Z","v":3,"id":"05e4a1c8-933e-49b9-ba50-5c257bf1f317","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4459925358110688,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.65,"year":56,"after":{"army":28,"church":34,"people":71,"treasury":60},"blend":0.1586,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:51.325Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":69,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.6,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.56,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:51.461Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":27,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.89,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.03,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:53.313Z","v":3,"id":"a7ac9895-8e73-40af-9443-f80ef4df0100","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.7961394839096461,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.42,"year":57,"after":{"army":18,"church":36,"people":81,"treasury":64},"blend":0.2484,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:53.313Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":71,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.52,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.18,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.42,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:53.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":71,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":28,"church":34,"people":71,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.83,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.11,"church":2.11,"people":2.72,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-11,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:55.327Z","v":3,"id":"26a467de-eb92-4a11-a1a5-c221e8f85155","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.8573892575784401,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.93,"year":58,"after":{"army":16,"church":42,"people":78,"treasury":75},"blend":0.9222,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:55.327Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.12,"3":0.6,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.18,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.62,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.06,"3":0.77,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:55.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"+5","people":"-4","treasury":"+10"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"+1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":18,"church":36,"people":81,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.43,"people":1.68,"treasury":2.84},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.54,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.44}},"tokens":2729,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":-3,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":-4,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:57.331Z","v":3,"id":"31a757ac-6134-4ac2-9fe6-63c3b0d912eb","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7641687183979051,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.45,"year":59,"after":{"army":18,"church":42,"people":80,"treasury":79},"blend":0.09899999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:57.331Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":59,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.38,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.49,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.61,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.35,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.49,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.45,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:57.506Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":59,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-15","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-17"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":16,"church":42,"people":78,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.73,"church":1.51,"people":0.97,"treasury":0.59},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.9,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:20:59.328Z","v":3,"id":"f5732da1-e2b7-47cd-ad8a-3641e4915518","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8730437493115111,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0,"year":60,"after":{"army":15,"church":40,"people":73,"treasury":85},"blend":0.03900000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:59.328Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":60,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.41,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.09,"3":0.76,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.32,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.12,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.34,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:20:59.515Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":60,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"Hang him":{"army":"-6","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":256}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":18,"church":42,"people":80,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.19,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.74,"people":1.35,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":256,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:01.315Z","v":3,"id":"b1782925-e2d7-4b9d-a8e5-09c47192d0d9","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4206264575212131,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.09,"year":61,"after":{"army":13,"church":37,"people":74,"treasury":89},"blend":0.0276,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:01.315Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":61,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1958,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.05,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.33,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.43,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.15,"3":0.52,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.16,"2":0.27,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:01.490Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":61,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-6","church":"+4","people":"-10","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":15,"church":40,"people":73,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.35,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.25},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.64,"people":2,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2738,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:03.314Z","v":3,"id":"181c6ad4-b5f0-4624-a13c-8bcb79598b77","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.591233150820154,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.81,"year":62,"after":{"army":24,"church":37,"people":77,"treasury":80},"blend":0.1782,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:03.314Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":62,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.46,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.07,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.51,"2":0.34,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.49,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.37,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:03.473Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":62,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-18","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":13,"church":37,"people":74,"treasury":89},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.5,"church":1.87,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.34},"right":{"army":2.83,"church":1.95,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2718,"applied":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":10,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:05.330Z","v":3,"id":"b3f60b5c-6c45-45f9-87a3-6675dd671647","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.34225591058800564,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.69,"year":63,"after":{"army":16,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":62},"blend":0.9161999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:05.330Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":63,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.13,"2":0.02,"3":0.58,"4":0.17}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.09,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.36,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.24,"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.49,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:05.516Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":63,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-9","church":"+7","people":"-10","treasury":"-19"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":24,"church":37,"people":77,"treasury":80},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.59,"people":1.15,"treasury":0.45},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.2,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2715,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":7,"people":-10,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:07.316Z","v":3,"id":"eb70d32e-4cf2-49be-8bfb-12b4879e54ea","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.561334289360971,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.9,"year":64,"after":{"army":15,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":58},"blend":0.21359999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:07.316Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":64,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.06,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.21,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"3":0.7,"4":0.04}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.25,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.24,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:07.545Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":64,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"+5","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":16,"church":45,"people":68,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.22,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.43},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.55,"people":1.33,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":5,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:09.330Z","v":3,"id":"a9b4f3fe-a901-4213-91da-efb2d6ad49d7","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.029537662693003952,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.91,"year":65,"after":{"army":7,"church":57,"people":48,"treasury":59},"blend":0.2002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:09.330Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":65,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.48,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.3,"2":0.03,"3":0.55,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.23,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.2,"3":0.78,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.35,"2":0.22,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:09.534Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":65,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-14","treasury":"0"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":15,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":2.22,"people":0.84,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.41,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":4,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:11.330Z","v":3,"id":"b3caafb4-4c7d-445b-a116-4fb23ba7e912","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.4735820223590028,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.44,"year":66,"after":{"army":3,"church":58,"people":49,"treasury":60},"blend":0.7676000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:11.330Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":66,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.67,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:11.478Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":66,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":7,"church":57,"people":48,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.98,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":1.91,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.11,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:13.381Z","v":3,"id":"e10b81b9-9cc2-4817-a77a-669edb66c5b9","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.33839549500093313,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.85,"year":67,"after":{"army":3,"church":59,"people":52,"treasury":58},"blend":0.18699999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:13.381Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":67,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.36,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.53,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.58,"2":0.24,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.52,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.36,"2":0.09,"3":0.38,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:13.558Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":67,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-13","church":"-6","people":"-8","treasury":"-2"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":3,"church":58,"people":49,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.89,"church":1.48,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.97,"people":2.13,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:15.317Z","v":3,"id":"dd25f171-1336-4866-ab9d-784ae1f47503","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6181662910922727,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.32,"year":68,"after":{"army":0,"church":58,"people":50,"treasury":56},"blend":0.07819999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:15.317Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":68,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.36,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.35,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.61,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.18,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.54,"2":0.22,"3":0.1,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:15.490Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":68,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-16","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"213add71-cad2-4af7-bf04-ff64777f415b","before":{"army":3,"church":59,"people":52,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.67,"church":1.42,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":1.36,"church":1.81,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.36,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:17.317Z","v":3,"id":"72f64ca5-f613-4178-bde4-17d72a024c72","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Leopold III","wisdom":0.24},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.10601729173282481,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":48},"blend":0.7568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:17.317Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Leopold III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.12,"2":0.18,"3":0.6,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:17.482Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":236}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"570b09e4-c2dd-4421-8518-5adb8af8b273","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.6,"people":0.9,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.92,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":236,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:19.331Z","v":3,"id":"cff86d1c-dd9b-4dc2-b833-a53b113d855e","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Leopold III","wisdom":0.24},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7709442358556906,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":47},"blend":0.7572,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:19.331Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":38,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Leopold III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.79,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.2,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.55,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.64,"2":0.24,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.49,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":259},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:19.590Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":38,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+6","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"570b09e4-c2dd-4421-8518-5adb8af8b273","before":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.74,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":2.47,"church":1.89,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":259},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":6,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:21.333Z","v":3,"id":"7b4b2458-63bd-48e9-a5f7-38fc44c83404","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Leopold III","wisdom":0.24},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3302721432186422,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.88,"year":3,"after":{"army":49,"church":37,"people":22,"treasury":42},"blend":0.6712,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:21.333Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":38,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Leopold III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.64,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.53,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.74,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.29,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.59,"2":0.14,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.48,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:21.547Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":38,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-17","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"570b09e4-c2dd-4421-8518-5adb8af8b273","before":{"army":54,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":1.19,"people":0.56,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2.53,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-16,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-17,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:23.353Z","v":3,"id":"66469f14-339b-4086-a56b-902dea7429aa","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Leopold III","wisdom":0.24},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.27227578516564477,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.96,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":30,"people":5,"treasury":37},"blend":0.732,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:23.353Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":22,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Leopold III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.41,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.16,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.46,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.38,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.2,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:23.548Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":22,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-18","treasury":"-6"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"570b09e4-c2dd-4421-8518-5adb8af8b273","before":{"army":49,"church":37,"people":22,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.36,"people":0.47,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.37,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-17,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-18,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:25.323Z","v":3,"id":"889f4bda-1bd0-48b9-9236-28ffd948560a","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Leopold III","wisdom":0.24},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.0003335555861530004,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.95,"year":5,"after":{"army":42,"church":14,"people":0,"treasury":23},"blend":0.722,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:25.323Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Leopold III, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.38,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.46,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.83,"1":0.17,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.14,"2":0.63,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.49,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.47,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":133},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:25.456Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 24% of the time.","description":"Leopold III suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-6","church":"-17","people":"-22","treasury":"-15"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"570b09e4-c2dd-4421-8518-5adb8af8b273","before":{"army":47,"church":30,"people":5,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":0.6,"people":0.18,"treasury":0.79},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.92,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-16,"people":-21,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":133},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-17,"people":-22,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:27.334Z","v":3,"id":"eacfa7e9-2674-40dc-b40f-7c96ba294575","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.5639416214163546,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.05,"year":1,"after":{"army":53,"church":57,"people":57,"treasury":59},"blend":0.09000000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:27.334Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.74,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.5,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.44,"3":0.49,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.48,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.32,"3":0.66,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:27.504Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+2","church":"+6","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.74,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":2.46,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:29.318Z","v":3,"id":"c36673f2-b205-441d-8002-6ec3020b80a2","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.37,"mock":false,"roll":0.627074940680939,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.43,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":58,"people":57,"treasury":63},"blend":0.38199999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:29.318Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":57,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.55,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:29.447Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":57,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":53,"church":57,"people":57,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":2.12,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.26}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:31.318Z","v":3,"id":"04d41441-2d15-4376-8ac8-da782a35ff58","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.44,"mock":false,"roll":0.36947255502372833,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":70,"people":64,"treasury":54},"blend":0.552,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:31.318Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":57,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.92,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.34,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.33,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:31.496Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":57,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-3","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-4","church":"-12","people":"-3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":53,"church":58,"people":57,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.94,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.02,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":12,"people":7,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.12}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:33.332Z","v":3,"id":"dbe1b4ae-2a14-4ded-94fc-732b5864fd8f","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6910654674210184,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":52,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":60},"blend":0.23199999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:33.332Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":64,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.66,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.05,"3":0.57,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.17,"3":0.7,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.54,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.24,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":277},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:33.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":64,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-9","church":"+10","people":"-13","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":51,"church":70,"people":64,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":2.81,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.56},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.27,"people":2.62,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":8,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":277},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":10,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:35.331Z","v":3,"id":"52e1f4c0-8f6c-422f-97c4-f1c5171cc40d","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.3315245782193168,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":49,"church":54,"people":72,"treasury":61},"blend":0.32599999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:35.331Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.05,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.7,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.1,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.38,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:35.491Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+8","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":52,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.63,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.26,"people":1.94,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:37.334Z","v":3,"id":"ebc59153-00ce-4fc9-8fea-f70b2bea588c","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0008323062240276347,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.98,"year":6,"after":{"army":41,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":51},"blend":0.21199999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:37.334Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":72,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.13,"3":0.67,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.32,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.67,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:37.487Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":72,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-9","church":"+7","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":334}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":49,"church":54,"people":72,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.62,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.63,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":8,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":334,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":7,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:39.324Z","v":3,"id":"165a0de5-c80a-447d-99dd-baace1e0d376","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6526570264194131,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":75,"treasury":51},"blend":0.24799999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:39.324Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":66,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"3":0.64,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.1,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.48,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:39.476Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":66,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"+6","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":41,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":2.53,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.16,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":6,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:41.325Z","v":3,"id":"573acd55-c8cc-477c-9ed8-9990e67a7695","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.74,"mock":false,"roll":0.4397220423920787,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0,"year":8,"after":{"army":36,"church":42,"people":79,"treasury":55},"blend":0.592,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:41.325Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":75,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.82,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.2,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.06,"3":0.78,"4":0.06}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.25,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.22,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.44,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:41.561Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":75,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+10","people":"-7","treasury":"-5"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-4","church":"-12","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":75,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.01,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.22},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.81,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":3,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":-7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.49}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:43.330Z","v":3,"id":"dcce33e2-b069-4efc-9816-db6311689b2f","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6775518036183383,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.94,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":39,"people":86,"treasury":62},"blend":0.22799999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:43.330Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":79,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.68,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.65,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.04,"3":0.61,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.39,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.53,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.46,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:43.563Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":79,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-12","church":"+8","people":"-12","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":36,"church":42,"people":79,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":2.66,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.53},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.7,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":7,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":6,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:45.327Z","v":3,"id":"517d44da-ad0f-4922-8267-63c8b6f42cef","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.35333842391556325,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.94,"year":10,"after":{"army":34,"church":35,"people":81,"treasury":62},"blend":0.20399999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:45.327Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.26,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:45.486Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":36,"church":39,"people":86,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.4,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.58,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:47.324Z","v":3,"id":"641a43ba-5445-478d-a304-7592f41ae1b9","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5496620515890995,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":27,"church":45,"people":71,"treasury":47},"blend":0.992,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:47.324Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1960,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.55,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.13,"2":0.03,"3":0.59,"4":0.2}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.73,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.74,"2":0.06,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.33,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:47.493Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-8","church":"+9","people":"-11","treasury":"-16"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":766,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":34,"church":35,"people":81,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":2.78,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.11,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":10,"people":-10,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":9,"people":-11,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:49.327Z","v":3,"id":"1369501d-6aba-42d7-8533-186d45c5a9d1","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.6626697179855672,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.89,"year":12,"after":{"army":26,"church":53,"people":82,"treasury":44},"blend":0.922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:49.327Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":71,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.46,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.27,"3":0.61,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.26,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.55,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:49.514Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":71,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"+2"},"Hang him":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":27,"church":45,"people":71,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.55,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":1.65,"people":1.07,"treasury":2.19}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":10,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:51.332Z","v":3,"id":"5c0759ed-9c84-4948-b4b7-271be03b6f49","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7880564838053306,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.28,"year":13,"after":{"army":19,"church":50,"people":70,"treasury":31},"blend":0.8480000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:51.332Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.64,"2":0.21,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.69,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.42,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.68,"2":0.07,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.49,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.39,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:51.492Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":26,"church":53,"people":82,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.65,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.11,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.43,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:53.323Z","v":3,"id":"0353baf7-6bde-47f3-a541-205d47b939c2","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.48632944962184244,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.05,"year":14,"after":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":56,"treasury":31},"blend":0.81,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:53.323Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.03,"3":0.61,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.68,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.36,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.73,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.21,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.32,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.21,"2":0.46,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:53.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+4","church":"-6","people":"-15","treasury":"-1"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-12","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":19,"church":50,"people":70,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.3,"church":1.54,"people":0.73,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":0.98,"church":1.94,"people":2.53,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:55.338Z","v":3,"id":"3751ba0d-a03c-405b-8d3e-988ebe2dafb2","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.26521050504112886,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":22,"church":55,"people":45,"treasury":29},"blend":0.27999999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:55.338Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":56,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.03,"3":0.72,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.38,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.33,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.48,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:55.538Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":56,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+9","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":294}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":24,"church":45,"people":56,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2.74,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.22,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":10,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":294,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":9,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:57.328Z","v":3,"id":"53fdb774-ecce-4fa5-a0e6-0b450b3296cd","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.306615643717127,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":23,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":29},"blend":0.23999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:57.328Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":45,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.63,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.84,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.13,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.13,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:57.475Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":45,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+6","people":"-14","treasury":"-6"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":22,"church":55,"people":45,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.49,"people":0.84,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.27,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":6,"people":-14,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:21:59.344Z","v":3,"id":"f13d9d5c-b53a-413b-9989-034e58ced64f","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.050330639571198876,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.92,"year":17,"after":{"army":18,"church":53,"people":45,"treasury":41},"blend":0.296,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:59.344Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.36,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.07,"3":0.61,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.25,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.3,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.04,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.39,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:21:59.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":56,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"+8","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":23,"church":47,"people":56,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.42,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.9},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.6,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":6,"people":-11,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":8,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:01.344Z","v":3,"id":"66875e31-26a6-4dd8-a47a-27b35694e57e","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.032674228192854704,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.9,"year":18,"after":{"army":16,"church":54,"people":38,"treasury":32},"blend":0.972,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:01.344Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.55,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.65,"1":0.28,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.49,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.36,"2":0.33,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.33,"2":0.17,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.87,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.24,"2":0.13,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":245},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:01.590Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-19","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-9"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":18,"church":53,"people":45,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.01,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":0.43,"church":1.31,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":245},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-19,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:03.347Z","v":3,"id":"f955b540-4999-465e-afd5-6b5931b18af6","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.1376314347234917,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":0,"church":57,"people":27,"treasury":40},"blend":0.19999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:03.347Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.93,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.5,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.14,"2":0.05,"3":0.35,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.39999999999999997,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.68,"2":0.15,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.14,"2":0.34,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.15,"3":0.66,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.65,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:03.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Radulf V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-23","church":"+2","people":"-12","treasury":"+7"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":765,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c184d0ed-75d4-4edc-8d12-4890a7e5be12","before":{"army":16,"church":54,"people":38,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.12,"church":2.13,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.55},"right":{"army":2.18,"church":1.29,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2731,"applied":{"army":-22,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-23,"church":2,"people":-12,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:05.335Z","v":3,"id":"7cf4a62a-350e-426c-b211-e1e7d79aea74","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5458595546271705,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.81,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":39,"treasury":60},"blend":0.5482,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:05.335Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.44,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.39,"2":0.06,"3":0.44,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.5,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.07,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:05.524Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-12","treasury":"+9"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.94,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.79},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.96,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-11,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:07.332Z","v":3,"id":"1fb9beca-c3b5-4483-8857-757f431a63e7","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9830552587750268,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":47,"church":51,"people":44,"treasury":65},"blend":0.6567999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:07.332Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":39,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.49,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:07.496Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":39,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":39,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.73,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.01,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:09.336Z","v":3,"id":"87450196-f819-4dfd-9c56-32b07dcea364","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.36938669463581864,"step":12,"trap":0.88,"want":0.97,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":37,"treasury":62},"blend":0.6469999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:09.336Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":44,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.88,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.55,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.43,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:09.489Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":44,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-4"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":47,"church":51,"people":44,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.63,"people":1.33,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.93,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:11.332Z","v":3,"id":"f80a0817-9515-4bec-bb90-e4cba9cbcc88","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5705611962652939,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.8,"year":4,"after":{"army":40,"church":46,"people":34,"treasury":60},"blend":0.5279999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:11.332Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":37,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.72,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.44,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.72,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.69,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:11.483Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":37,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":45,"church":48,"people":37,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.44,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":1.73,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:13.369Z","v":3,"id":"9b7fdc7d-6cea-4026-ab64-eb97bed358f8","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.5417965341000603,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":37,"church":48,"people":23,"treasury":55},"blend":0.6771999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:13.369Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":34,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.05,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.26,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.45,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.57,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:13.558Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":34,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":40,"church":46,"people":34,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":2.11,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.55,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:15.338Z","v":3,"id":"37461812-daa0-49d0-9bc9-aa407e2fa550","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4836960225154372,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.97,"year":6,"after":{"army":35,"church":47,"people":17,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6469999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:15.338Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":23,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.53,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.52,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:15.497Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":23,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"49336d3a-560c-44dc-a16d-21b898d9a8e4","before":{"army":37,"church":48,"people":23,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.81,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.86,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:17.334Z","v":3,"id":"c245764b-e385-4ff7-8e3e-c545e07778ea","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.05421483354041734,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.59,"year":7,"after":{"army":31,"church":41,"people":10,"treasury":36},"blend":0.3893999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:17.334Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Godric I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.61,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.55,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:17.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Godric I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 34% of the time.","description":"Godric I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:19.336Z","v":3,"id":"bb5c7e0f-ea88-41a4-81e9-6d3e9e0d2657","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.997539703465899,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.71,"year":8,"after":{"army":40,"church":36,"people":1,"treasury":34},"blend":0.47539999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:19.336Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:21.334Z","v":3,"id":"e58abd96-58b0-45c7-8a23-7d62774a8498","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric I","wisdom":0.34},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5729279965541372,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":25,"people":0,"treasury":24},"blend":0.6567999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:21.334Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:23.335Z","v":3,"id":"14ed22d2-afc3-47aa-ab42-7f7f41f3d0fc","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7230810674397723,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.21,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":55},"blend":0.088,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:23.335Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.19,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.47,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:23.491Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2.25,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.81,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:25.349Z","v":3,"id":"53392e8c-027e-4535-84ec-a8fa29b8087c","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7906844419676875,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.02,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":50,"people":61,"treasury":53},"blend":0.0261,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:25.349Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":52,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.8,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.51,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.29,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.03,"4":0.9299999999999999}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.07,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:25.573Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":52,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-16","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":52,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.83,"people":0.65,"treasury":3.88},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":1.96,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:27.337Z","v":3,"id":"07f221ef-22e8-4f53-9278-0467f23211bb","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8163438604866267,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":54,"church":50,"people":59,"treasury":51},"blend":0.9878,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:27.337Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":61,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.58,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:27.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":61,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":54,"church":50,"people":61,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.93,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.89,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:29.346Z","v":3,"id":"7bb429c7-34e5-484e-a4ae-018511f28059","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.39135342777822335,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":43,"church":40,"people":47,"treasury":39},"blend":0.3961,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:29.346Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":59,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.58,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.62,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:29.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":59,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":54,"church":50,"people":59,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.1,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.04,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:31.340Z","v":3,"id":"833f536c-4773-48d5-8a56-9dae57a7b27e","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.08704884471963603,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.94,"year":5,"after":{"army":40,"church":39,"people":48,"treasury":34},"blend":0.9704999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:31.340Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":47,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.34,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.1,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.17,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:31.502Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":47,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"-6"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":43,"church":40,"people":47,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.82,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":1.55,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.01}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:33.347Z","v":3,"id":"f96ed2d5-c364-4f32-9344-a3a911720acd","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.65,"mock":false,"roll":0.3682232108634538,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.09,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":29,"people":56,"treasury":39},"blend":0.43160000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:33.347Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":48,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.18,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.09,"3":0.73,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.28,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.43,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:33.524Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":48,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"-10","treasury":"-5"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-3","church":"-11","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":40,"church":39,"people":48,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.12,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.35},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.63,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:35.354Z","v":3,"id":"f53734fe-e625-47e0-b2d7-ad64960e6334","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.039478571183888755,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.1,"year":7,"after":{"army":34,"church":27,"people":50,"treasury":29},"blend":0.04510000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:35.354Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":56,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.22,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.6,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.25,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.31,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:35.493Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":56,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":38,"church":29,"people":56,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.79,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.74,"people":1.66,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:37.357Z","v":3,"id":"cba0b9a9-a703-4920-9879-f79a3d704737","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6210593928793839,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.98,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":25,"people":49,"treasury":24},"blend":0.4432,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:37.357Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":50,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.26,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.43,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.59,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:37.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":50,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+3","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":34,"church":27,"people":50,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":1.77,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":3,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:39.338Z","v":3,"id":"877ae157-5c68-4b55-898d-0cf7cf023158","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.033221436852745034,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.94,"year":9,"after":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":37,"treasury":13},"blend":0.37879999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:39.338Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":49,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.57,"2":0.18,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.34,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.28,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:39.580Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":49,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"},"Send grain":{"army":"+1","church":"+6","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":38,"church":25,"people":49,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.25,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.53,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2568,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":241},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":3,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:41.348Z","v":3,"id":"4e964ed8-6042-45b9-811f-92abba6a5a6a","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.846179402847959,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.59,"year":10,"after":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":44,"treasury":13},"blend":0.2301,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:41.348Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.36,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.54,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.72,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.49,"2":0.1,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.39,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:41.491Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-7","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":37,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.12,"people":0.79,"treasury":1.43},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.9,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2741,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:43.347Z","v":3,"id":"12c44ee3-5904-427a-a7a1-80ee8e1b032d","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.29815478450781985,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":28,"church":12,"people":34,"treasury":0},"blend":0.40659999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:43.347Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Ursula IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.23,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.25,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.21,"2":0.58,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.7,"1":0.3,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.12,"2":0.27,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:43.511Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Ursula IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-20"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-7","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"aed03be4-1a6a-4dfe-b3db-1ad9ed61b422","before":{"army":33,"church":17,"people":44,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.51,"people":1.12,"treasury":0.32},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.42,"people":1.74,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2733,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:45.340Z","v":3,"id":"9d668c2d-612e-4d5d-998a-bfd1931450b3","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.6368361668640514,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.75,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":52},"blend":0.8226,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:45.340Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:45.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.03,"church":2.01,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.3,"church":1.7,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.33}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:47.344Z","v":3,"id":"eca65e68-c1f5-4037-ad6c-31074a06a409","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.30930205321267645,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.49,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":49,"treasury":46},"blend":0.3349,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:47.344Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.74,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:47.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+2","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.57,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.19,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2647,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:49.339Z","v":3,"id":"e1b49bb4-d645-4aea-9943-0d8915e9edb5","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.6844643666711518,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.09,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":49,"people":59,"treasury":36},"blend":0.1131,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:49.339Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":49,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.08,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.35,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:49.505Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":49,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":49,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.82,"people":1.27,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.07,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:51.346Z","v":3,"id":"bf318c00-ca3a-4c77-a64d-faf548f4003e","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.29273625226021704,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.32,"year":4,"after":{"army":51,"church":52,"people":60,"treasury":28},"blend":0.2507,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:51.346Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":59,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:51.491Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":50,"church":49,"people":59,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.53,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.16,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:53.342Z","v":3,"id":"87d511cf-8051-4cda-8dd6-4853def9763e","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.7362419784547396,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.36,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":50,"treasury":33},"blend":0.5448,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:53.342Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":60,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.44,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.35,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.43,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.43,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:53.546Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":60,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"+4"},"Hang him":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+10","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":51,"church":52,"people":60,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":2.31,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.6,"people":1.07,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:55.341Z","v":3,"id":"63e08527-569f-4f36-8c0d-37d7926154ab","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.10975610211991227,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.75,"year":6,"after":{"army":39,"church":41,"people":41,"treasury":27},"blend":0.5057999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:55.341Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":50,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.42,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:55.508Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":50,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+5","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-8","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":50,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.34,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.4,"church":2.28,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":5,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:57.344Z","v":3,"id":"8c3a6f05-263f-4062-8d74-5b26659d2575","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9576305548065844,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.91,"year":7,"after":{"army":33,"church":42,"people":50,"treasury":29},"blend":0.6228999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:57.344Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":41,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.04,"3":0.55,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.15,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.7,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.19,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.28,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.49,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:57.565Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":41,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+2","church":"-7","people":"-16","treasury":"-2"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-7","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":39,"church":41,"people":41,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.2,"church":1.44,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":2.03,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:22:59.340Z","v":3,"id":"88b4dc57-f3d5-4896-b769-25a65d48ce3c","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.6125637842036524,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.54,"year":8,"after":{"army":34,"church":43,"people":53,"treasury":27},"blend":0.6621,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:59.340Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":50,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.47,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.53,"2":0.06,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.14,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:22:59.588Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":50,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":33,"church":42,"people":50,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.41,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.09,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:01.341Z","v":3,"id":"a9dc1bac-2b45-4835-8e0e-94719dfb488e","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3555138348410549,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":28,"church":41,"people":45,"treasury":17},"blend":0.6665999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:01.341Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":53,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.45,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:01.544Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":53,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":34,"church":43,"people":53,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.73,"people":1.29,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:03.343Z","v":3,"id":"ba4af1af-a0e0-4465-acba-8f63aef44aea","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9002553381238783,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.95,"year":10,"after":{"army":20,"church":39,"people":39,"treasury":21},"blend":0.9664999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:03.343Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.56,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.27,"2":0.04,"3":0.54,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:03.507Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":45,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+3"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":28,"church":41,"people":45,"treasury":17},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.75,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.26},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.78,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.36}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:05.354Z","v":3,"id":"59d77bff-a408-4a73-ad1e-5a4236b297ec","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5698503463431661,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.12,"year":11,"after":{"army":18,"church":40,"people":49,"treasury":11},"blend":0.08039999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:05.354Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1969,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.47,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.58,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.84,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.55,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.04,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.67,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:05.514Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":20,"church":39,"people":39,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.54,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.2},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":2.02,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:07.345Z","v":3,"id":"40652a3b-092b-48b9-91bb-3e5aa4c2e857","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric IV","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.6489385150898266,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.27,"year":12,"after":{"army":27,"church":38,"people":50,"treasury":0},"blend":0.20400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:07.345Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Godric IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.53,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.09,"3":0.78,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.58,"2":0.33,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.47,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.21,"2":0.29,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.77,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:07.499Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Godric IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Godric IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-17","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"0"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+8","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"39ce920c-ec95-4ec5-8bf0-374fac97442d","before":{"army":18,"church":40,"people":49,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.55,"church":1.64,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":2.63,"church":1.73,"people":2.01,"treasury":0.84}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":9,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-17,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":8,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-14}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:09.348Z","v":3,"id":"8115d93a-ce7e-448a-b680-f58760bd7d31","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.0808813515688469,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":43,"people":33,"treasury":63},"blend":0.4448000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:09.348Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.62,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.62,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.53,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.13,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.8,"4":0.13}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:09.544Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-10"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-18","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.31,"people":0.54,"treasury":3.01},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.21,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-17,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-18,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:11.426Z","v":3,"id":"02121f6a-411f-48e1-96da-429c5d47c8d8","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.57,"mock":false,"roll":0.13763674103799595,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.97,"year":2,"after":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":29,"treasury":74},"blend":0.738,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:11.426Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":33,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.13,"3":0.44,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.28,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.63,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.07,"3":0.8,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:11.646Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":33,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"+10"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:13.359Z","v":3,"id":"6ea98a1c-3ea5-4ae0-96be-e7f950b1fe17","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.11504175280413986,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.86,"year":3,"after":{"army":41,"church":42,"people":24,"treasury":74},"blend":0.3728,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:13.359Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.34,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.48,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.48,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.51,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:13.517Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":29,"treasury":74},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.77,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.81,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:15.351Z","v":3,"id":"f415cb42-487a-4105-b039-c5060cddc733","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5702781303314841,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.72,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":35,"treasury":76},"blend":0.30820000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:15.351Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.44,"2":0.42,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.72,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.65,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.12,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.67,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.27,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:15.571Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":41,"church":42,"people":24,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.48,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.2,"people":2.85,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:17.379Z","v":3,"id":"85d424d6-60ec-4032-b0a8-1aae20880792","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8279369322066672,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.96,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":39,"treasury":81},"blend":0.4206,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:17.379Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":35,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.71,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.17,"3":0.36,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:17.537Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":35,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":236}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":35,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.69,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.18},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":236,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:19.346Z","v":3,"id":"e7059cf1-954f-4757-8889-20af6eb7defe","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9833211571474125,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":48,"treasury":73},"blend":0.42000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:19.346Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.87,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.57,"4":0.27}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:19.530Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-9"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+2","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"+10"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":45,"church":46,"people":39,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.13,"church":1.63,"people":0.88,"treasury":2.85},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.02,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2697,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:21.355Z","v":3,"id":"ea9af7de-2437-47bf-8c84-58870b76b997","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.9585051374338065,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.94,"year":7,"after":{"army":37,"church":41,"people":37,"treasury":79},"blend":0.8704,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:21.355Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":48,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.59,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.07,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.12,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:21.507Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":48,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":48,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.97,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.39,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:23.350Z","v":3,"id":"6a89bcc9-a3e9-4c34-ba63-a0ed9b0e06f3","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.45362227921379916,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":8,"after":{"army":29,"church":39,"people":32,"treasury":90},"blend":0.46220000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:23.350Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":37,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.74,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:23.551Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":37,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+10"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":37,"church":41,"people":37,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.75,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.81},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.9,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:25.359Z","v":3,"id":"3d98db51-568c-4746-9b8f-8c401433e5f2","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7739109133240694,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.72,"year":9,"after":{"army":27,"church":37,"people":28,"treasury":84},"blend":0.8824,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:25.359Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.61,"2":0.2,"3":0.11,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:25.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":29,"church":39,"people":32,"treasury":90},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.71,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.19,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2713,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:27.354Z","v":3,"id":"1943033d-ce95-4653-90bb-affad7fe971d","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.8634464066510328,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.47,"year":10,"after":{"army":28,"church":32,"people":36,"treasury":89},"blend":0.7716,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:27.354Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.68,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.08,"3":0.53,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.26,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.43,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.35,"2":0.03,"3":0.07,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.52,"3":0.39,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:27.504Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"0","church":"-6","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-12","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":27,"church":37,"people":28,"treasury":84},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":2.32,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.75},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.46,"people":2.55,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":8,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":7,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:29.350Z","v":3,"id":"ae6ab97f-3678-4ee4-9854-07726e7c6ed9","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":0.58},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.08069444435703543,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":18,"church":17,"people":22,"treasury":100},"blend":0.42000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:29.350Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide V, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.55,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.65,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.44,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.16,"4":0.71}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.61,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:29.552Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 58% of the time.","description":"Frideswide V will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-16","people":"-15","treasury":"+17"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":765,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7d501129-bce3-444c-a274-bf0bfd99fc09","before":{"army":28,"church":32,"people":36,"treasury":89},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":0.69,"people":0.78,"treasury":3.39},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.48,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":18},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-16,"people":-15,"treasury":17},"right":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:31.352Z","v":3,"id":"36eb63d6-2b39-4450-be2f-8c995d5284bb","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.09998039468237918,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.95,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":53},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:31.352Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:31.560Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.65,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.15},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.09,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.61}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:33.348Z","v":3,"id":"327ff0b1-236c-42e0-8473-96a699e3a032","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.08927794294225189,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.04,"year":2,"after":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":49},"blend":0.022,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:33.348Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":45,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.15,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.4,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.68,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.77,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:33.515Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.11,"church":1.15,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.96,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:35.364Z","v":3,"id":"485c7cf9-eecc-458a-9141-6441cdd5c610","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.32601861479503835,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.02,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":47},"blend":0.008,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:35.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.66,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.73,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:35.533Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.58,"people":1.03,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:37.354Z","v":3,"id":"cdcf1ea4-93e6-479c-953e-9b7a48b80297","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.254294755268881,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":43},"blend":0.41200000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:37.354Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.51,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:37.505Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":51,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":51,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.86,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.06,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:39.350Z","v":3,"id":"da421c68-f781-477a-bd4a-e5c45a4db069","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.7210695347540135,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.66,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":41,"people":59,"treasury":46},"blend":0.3,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:39.350Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.25,"2":0.06,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.7,"2":0.23,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:39.512Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"+2"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":44,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.31,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.33,"people":2.87,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":11,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:41.358Z","v":3,"id":"b74cd308-98eb-40f9-8331-d54b08ffb17a","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6403068725088517,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":36},"blend":0.436,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:41.358Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":59,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.93,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.64,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.32,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:41.517Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":59,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":45,"church":41,"people":59,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.83,"people":1.55,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":2.92,"church":2.01,"people":2.24,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:43.359Z","v":3,"id":"afced8ca-0417-48d8-8803-86baec144201","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.77,"mock":false,"roll":0.6266741431875218,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.8,"year":7,"after":{"army":58,"church":39,"people":66,"treasury":36},"blend":0.782,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:43.359Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.68,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.65,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.21,"3":0.75,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":401},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:43.760Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.65,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.86,"people":1.35,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":401},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:45.355Z","v":3,"id":"e903d6ec-dada-4284-b7e3-96241785e947","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.3406618035861335,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.01,"year":8,"after":{"army":59,"church":32,"people":75,"treasury":46},"blend":0.034,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:45.355Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":66,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.76,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.06,"3":0.59,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.86,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.2,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.36,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.34,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.26,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:45.520Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":66,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+8","treasury":"+9"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-13","church":"+5","people":"-13","treasury":"-20"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":58,"church":39,"people":66,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.92,"church":2.45,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.35},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.35,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":9,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":5,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:47.358Z","v":3,"id":"e5e0ca70-16a8-4461-8a5d-b80a399910ca","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.10165654745374098,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0,"year":9,"after":{"army":59,"church":32,"people":75,"treasury":45},"blend":0.582,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:47.358Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":75,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:47.543Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":75,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":59,"church":32,"people":75,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.95,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.81,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:49.354Z","v":3,"id":"680cd21f-af35-4e10-8bb4-ee4fffc66898","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.5939101629160057,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.09,"year":10,"after":{"army":54,"church":28,"people":65,"treasury":48},"blend":0.5880000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:49.354Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":75,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.49,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.56,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.35,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.58,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:49.481Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:51.356Z","v":3,"id":"3edb5c83-ea94-45fe-ba27-41073c2afa5f","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6957519081097476,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":55,"church":29,"people":67,"treasury":49},"blend":0.406,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:51.356Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":65,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.9,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:51.572Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":54,"church":28,"people":65,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.86,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:53.358Z","v":3,"id":"e727f2ce-a245-4eca-9ef4-c1a70df2f724","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.918232888463377,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.11,"year":12,"after":{"army":55,"church":40,"people":71,"treasury":41},"blend":0.10400000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:53.358Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":67,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1888,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.88,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.16,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.53,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.04,"3":0.82,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:53.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":67,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-10","treasury":"+11"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+10","people":"+3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":55,"church":29,"people":67,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":0.91,"people":1.15,"treasury":2.89},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.8,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":0,"church":11,"people":4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-10,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":10,"people":3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:55.368Z","v":3,"id":"5669363a-26a1-4c32-8b06-d08f615e84d6","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.1466237886425985,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.91,"year":13,"after":{"army":53,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":38},"blend":0.38200000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:55.368Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":71,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:55.506Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":71,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":55,"church":40,"people":71,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.89,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:57.363Z","v":3,"id":"9559d8d3-a4d0-47fe-9337-81aa73c8e183","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.03251299578334743,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.81,"year":14,"after":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":61,"treasury":29},"blend":0.3360000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:57.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.72,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":338},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:57.701Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":70,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":227}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":53,"church":40,"people":70,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.74,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.03,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":227,"forecast":338},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:23:59.356Z","v":3,"id":"d640e346-f4d8-481d-809a-26a78fc58a0a","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9118393383500636,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.96,"year":15,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":67,"treasury":26},"blend":0.40800000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:59.356Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":61,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.69,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.23,"4":0.73}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:23:59.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":61,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+7","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-15","people":"-14","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":61,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":0.73,"people":0.84,"treasury":3.66},"right":{"army":2.22,"church":2.6,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":4,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:01.363Z","v":3,"id":"592db24c-2343-4e9e-a67d-40cdd1550955","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.6331430986343927,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":15},"blend":0.532,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:01.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":67,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.07,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.25,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":290},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:01.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":67,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":67,"treasury":26},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.85,"people":1.2,"treasury":2.48},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.88,"people":2.71,"treasury":0.98}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":290},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:03.363Z","v":3,"id":"bf5c5cb0-4a94-4800-8935-67af0ba2247d","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9991378433710305,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0,"year":17,"after":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":82,"treasury":21},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:03.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.48,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.3,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.54,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.79,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.45,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:03.537Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.46,"people":1.05,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.04,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:05.363Z","v":3,"id":"18d276fc-fb55-41cf-bb02-3f9e0a87662c","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9128831272833957,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.99,"year":18,"after":{"army":51,"church":46,"people":76,"treasury":12},"blend":0.402,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:05.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.48,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.46,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:05.553Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":724,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":82,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":2,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.45},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.82,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:07.361Z","v":3,"id":"f33efc39-f6f2-421f-bec3-4a242fcf6fe2","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.21868349684226907,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.87,"year":19,"after":{"army":49,"church":43,"people":64,"treasury":16},"blend":0.948,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:07.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1967,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.34,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.78,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.16,"2":0.56,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.06,"2":0.5,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.6,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:07.556Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":51,"church":46,"people":76,"treasury":12},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.65,"people":0.94,"treasury":2.24},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":1.56,"people":2.38,"treasury":0.63}},"tokens":2744,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":5,"treasury":-16}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:09.359Z","v":3,"id":"d9391504-161c-44c3-8a3e-31767b737f20","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":0.6},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.25449569497117763,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.98,"year":20,"after":{"army":43,"church":37,"people":51,"treasury":0},"blend":0.392,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:09.359Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.23,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.63,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.18,"3":0.6900000000000001,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.24,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.11,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:09.513Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 60% of the time.","description":"Beatrix IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-19"},"Fix it now":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"50ee4c88-6f74-408b-83c7-3c209938282a","before":{"army":49,"church":43,"people":64,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.45,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.43},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:11.364Z","v":3,"id":"01fcf674-f380-46d2-94ff-596e1a55ab56","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.944722742999387,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.84,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"blend":0.904,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:11.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.72,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.23,"3":0.74,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:11.600Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.81,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.82,"people":1.31,"treasury":2.71}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:13.400Z","v":3,"id":"76d07b56-0531-4cc7-9d5b-b03a901b9366","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.8234307537584529,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":59,"people":49,"treasury":61},"blend":0.26399999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:13.400Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.22,"3":0.75,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:13.578Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":51,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.33,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.71,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":10,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:15.377Z","v":3,"id":"cf365b21-6778-42a7-b790-f504dbbb295a","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.8249199316940139,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.18,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":47,"treasury":59},"blend":0.788,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:15.377Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":49,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:15.561Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":49,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":52,"church":59,"people":49,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":2.1,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.8,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:17.362Z","v":3,"id":"5b03ff25-b6cb-4f74-972b-374aea350ba2","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9267117888035967,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0,"year":4,"after":{"army":53,"church":59,"people":52,"treasury":66},"blend":0.016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:17.362Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":47,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.48,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:17.496Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":47,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":47,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.82,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:19.358Z","v":3,"id":"d3a9993d-a5a8-44a5-a7db-01de3541b2eb","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.8311382433538401,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.77,"year":5,"after":{"army":53,"church":62,"people":65,"treasury":58},"blend":0.242,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:19.358Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":52,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.73,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:19.581Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":52,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":53,"church":59,"people":52,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.72,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.16,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.24}},"tokens":2674,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:21.361Z","v":3,"id":"aee8cd18-a07d-400d-9c48-e4c42c6637c1","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.64088041983112,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0,"year":6,"after":{"army":52,"church":62,"people":65,"treasury":56},"blend":0.784,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:21.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":65,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.58,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":285},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:21.645Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":65,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":53,"church":62,"people":65,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.91,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.87,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":285},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:23.370Z","v":3,"id":"e6b314d1-01cd-4389-95af-4d724dcb2a2e","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8338669117905644,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.95,"year":7,"after":{"army":56,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":53},"blend":0.22999999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:23.370Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":65,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.69,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.77,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.53,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.22,"4":0.75}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":313},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:23.683Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":65,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+8","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-9","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":52,"church":62,"people":65,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":0.85,"people":0.87,"treasury":3.7},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.64,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":4,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":313},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":3,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:25.376Z","v":3,"id":"e63b67fb-9d86-4f22-ad4b-26a585dbc2ad","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.90283102843233,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.04,"year":8,"after":{"army":56,"church":71,"people":79,"treasury":51},"blend":0.056,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:25.376Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.54,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.09,"3":0.4,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.05,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.7,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:25.552Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":71,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-12","treasury":"+10"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":56,"church":71,"people":71,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.91,"people":1,"treasury":2.85},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.88,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-12,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:27.374Z","v":3,"id":"b43c8aa4-a7e4-4237-bec8-98aeec6e75f5","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8684317973496767,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.46,"year":9,"after":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":84,"treasury":60},"blend":0.132,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:27.374Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":79,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.6,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:27.543Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":79,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":56,"church":71,"people":79,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.93,"people":1.56,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.04,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.08,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:29.357Z","v":3,"id":"72f4ee4a-14be-4b6a-be9b-448673b8a363","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5307202034514311,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":58,"church":71,"people":78,"treasury":53},"blend":0.20599999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:29.357Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.53,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:29.574Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":724,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":224}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":57,"church":72,"people":84,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":2.02,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.82,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":224,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:31.362Z","v":3,"id":"894062df-ba35-48ed-8617-c2dc33335f2a","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.5036978542315746,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.98,"year":11,"after":{"army":60,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":53},"blend":0.972,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:31.362Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":78,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.43,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.11,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.14,"3":0.57,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:31.578Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":78,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-1"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":58,"church":71,"people":78,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":2.01,"people":2.28,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.51,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:33.364Z","v":3,"id":"7d578827-c2f4-4c01-ac3e-751bcc2496b7","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.7243470839491408,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":60,"church":73,"people":79,"treasury":48},"blend":0.536,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:33.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:33.524Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+3"},"Investigate":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":60,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.9,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.25},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.97,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:35.361Z","v":3,"id":"c229b18e-01fe-4bed-a0c8-6d803fa66fc0","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.937129835822315,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.05,"year":13,"after":{"army":61,"church":82,"people":71,"treasury":43},"blend":0.578,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:35.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":79,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.16,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.12,"3":0.74,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.22,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:35.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":79,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"+7","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":60,"church":73,"people":79,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.09,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.52},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.68,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.41}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:37.364Z","v":3,"id":"a0ca7928-fcd2-4ede-80f4-27f914bd9656","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.48813440394447105,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":61,"church":81,"people":63,"treasury":50},"blend":0.896,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:37.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.61,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.29,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:37.559Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":82,"danger":["church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":61,"church":82,"people":71,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.87,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.48},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.97,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:39.361Z","v":3,"id":"5ac8657c-6250-415d-a6ca-d89c09f31959","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.38652824698163735,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.97,"year":15,"after":{"army":60,"church":71,"people":68,"treasury":42},"blend":0.19399999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:39.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.87,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.51,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.37,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.97,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:39.547Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+11","people":"0","treasury":"-12"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-2","church":"-11","people":"+4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":61,"church":81,"people":63,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.94,"people":2,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.09,"people":2.36,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":0,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:41.364Z","v":3,"id":"70a1e9d2-9f0e-4eec-bfc5-e1db226adae7","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8883987653170302,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0,"year":16,"after":{"army":62,"church":73,"people":73,"treasury":52},"blend":0.016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:41.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":68,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.6,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.17,"3":0.81,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:41.509Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":68,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":60,"church":71,"people":68,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.65,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.09,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.79}},"tokens":2644,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:43.374Z","v":3,"id":"b65ad1fc-00ee-4d53-bb9b-e394cfe67666","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8780937648100047,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.97,"year":17,"after":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":84,"treasury":52},"blend":0.20199999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:43.374Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":73,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.38,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.7,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.77,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.66,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.21,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:43.591Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":73,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-14"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":118}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":62,"church":73,"people":73,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.5,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.19,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":118,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:45.378Z","v":3,"id":"fe012cb8-0de5-4431-a954-41fa064e3a76","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.56,"mock":false,"roll":0.6227318778683462,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":1,"year":18,"after":{"army":62,"church":77,"people":80,"treasury":50},"blend":0.648,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:45.378Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.32,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:45.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":64,"church":76,"people":84,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.94,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.13}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:47.364Z","v":3,"id":"37e78da0-1c8e-4081-83cd-6d08ebc49674","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.6797078631951881,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":19,"after":{"army":51,"church":75,"people":62,"treasury":74},"blend":0.986,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:47.364Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.8,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.59,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.34,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.06,"2":0.3,"3":0.58,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.63,"3":0.09,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:47.520Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-19","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":62,"church":77,"people":80,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.77,"people":0.41,"treasury":3.94},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.96,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-18,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-19,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:49.361Z","v":3,"id":"36019d6e-c891-48d6-999e-1c433d3f2de4","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.7563867498112833,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.85,"year":20,"after":{"army":53,"church":65,"people":65,"treasury":70},"blend":0.33799999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:49.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":62,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.59,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.1,"3":0.7,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.72,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.43,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:49.510Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":62,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-7","church":"+8","people":"-7","treasury":"-1"},"Stand":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"+2","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":51,"church":75,"people":62,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":2.63,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.1,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2578,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.57}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:51.377Z","v":3,"id":"c4c138ca-b25d-43ef-8920-3a3d2f96ad92","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.04919032901728837,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.08,"year":21,"after":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":84},"blend":0.112,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:51.377Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":65,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1888,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.23,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.49,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.81,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":125},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:51.502Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":65,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-9","treasury":"+13"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":53,"church":65,"people":65,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":0.93,"people":1.24,"treasury":3.06},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.76,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2581,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":-8,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":125},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-9,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:53.369Z","v":3,"id":"e7d61d2d-f19e-47f6-808b-988b3f5699df","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3156398078291467,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":64,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":75},"blend":0.19999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:53.369Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.85,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.43,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.57,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.42,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:53.592Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":57,"treasury":84},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.88,"people":1.61,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":2.8,"church":1.96,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2672,"applied":{"army":11,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:55.363Z","v":3,"id":"934a2b17-eab6-4216-a4fb-58e42a1aa35e","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.5540637753679816,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.94,"year":23,"after":{"army":65,"church":57,"people":60,"treasury":68},"blend":0.25999999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:55.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.76,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:55.565Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":60,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":64,"church":54,"people":60,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.58,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.16,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:57.367Z","v":3,"id":"f9d1f1ae-99de-41d1-a99f-c866d5a9c986","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5851213079007964,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":1,"year":24,"after":{"army":67,"church":59,"people":64,"treasury":69},"blend":0.22399999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:57.367Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":60,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":65,"church":57,"people":60,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.72,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.09,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:24:59.365Z","v":3,"id":"4bbc6ba0-fb95-47db-9dd6-fd51114c5da2","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.991733181289709,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0,"year":25,"after":{"army":68,"church":66,"people":65,"treasury":70},"blend":0.192,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:59.365Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":64,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:24:59.522Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":67,"church":59,"people":64,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.41,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.47,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:01.378Z","v":3,"id":"aef0d98f-0375-48a7-8ec1-a7ea70aed928","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.35516037920619015,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":1,"year":26,"after":{"army":69,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":71},"blend":0.20799999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:01.378Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":65,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.93,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:01.576Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":65,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":68,"church":66,"people":65,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.97,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.03,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:03.366Z","v":3,"id":"cd91eb5b-e153-4af4-ac83-2529ee93b398","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.4929539976794468,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":1,"year":27,"after":{"army":70,"church":69,"people":69,"treasury":73},"blend":0.23999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:03.366Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:03.517Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":67,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":69,"church":67,"people":67,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.85,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.08,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:05.366Z","v":3,"id":"568346da-f624-463a-b0c8-8691eb52299d","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5679561746009141,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.99,"year":28,"after":{"army":71,"church":70,"people":79,"treasury":70},"blend":0.22199999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:05.366Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":70,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":69,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.16,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:05.520Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":70,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":69,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"},"Meet them":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":251}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":70,"church":69,"people":69,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.57,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.96,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":251,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:07.377Z","v":3,"id":"61539335-2543-4de3-93a4-e25a9b5e575e","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.02087139058867038,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.96,"year":29,"after":{"army":72,"church":65,"people":64,"treasury":80},"blend":0.25599999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:07.377Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":79,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.62,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.32,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.66,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.1,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.05,"3":0.73,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":276},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:07.653Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":79,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"0","church":"-6","people":"-16","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":71,"church":70,"people":79,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.49,"people":0.66,"treasury":2.73},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.19,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":276},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-16,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:09.361Z","v":3,"id":"ea41f206-8824-4b81-be0c-91f14d5d8961","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.56,"mock":false,"roll":0.22380670042446105,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":71,"church":63,"people":55,"treasury":79},"blend":0.648,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:09.361Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.46,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.21,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:09.519Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"left":0.56,"right":0.44}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":72,"church":65,"people":64,"treasury":80},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.76,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.11,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.11}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:11.363Z","v":3,"id":"24bd97f3-3f5e-40b2-945b-01f711a21281","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3123057428454985,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.91,"year":31,"after":{"army":72,"church":64,"people":56,"treasury":80},"blend":0.21399999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:11.363Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":55,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.78,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":265},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:11.627Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":55,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":249}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":71,"church":63,"people":55,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.88,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.02,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":249,"forecast":265},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:13.365Z","v":3,"id":"3bac81ab-ac34-4099-bffe-47f6ed109067","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.813580352345239,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0,"year":32,"after":{"army":73,"church":67,"people":64,"treasury":85},"blend":0.792,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:13.365Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.76,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.77,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.42,"3":0.5700000000000001,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.57,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:13.546Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-2","church":"-12","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":72,"church":64,"people":56,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.04,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.19,"people":2.55,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-12,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:15.367Z","v":3,"id":"3a7b9700-4e8e-415d-b937-d06177631647","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.09417659401915501,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.09,"year":33,"after":{"army":74,"church":69,"people":65,"treasury":85},"blend":0.066,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:15.367Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.98,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":274},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:15.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":73,"church":67,"people":64,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.84,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.05,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":274},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:17.366Z","v":3,"id":"fd85be9a-df3d-4894-8f02-7080efe8736f","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5892770730561154,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.69,"year":34,"after":{"army":74,"church":73,"people":56,"treasury":84},"blend":0.9299999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:17.366Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":74,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.11,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.5,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.35,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.5,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:17.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":74,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"-10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":74,"church":69,"people":65,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":2.22,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.3,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2693,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":-9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":-10,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:19.367Z","v":3,"id":"684f8d28-f695-440c-88df-4420758e7815","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.10414094683362296,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.82,"year":35,"after":{"army":65,"church":71,"people":47,"treasury":74},"blend":0.948,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:19.367Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":74,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.54,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.57,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.68,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:19.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":74,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":74,"church":73,"people":56,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.75,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.03,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:21.375Z","v":3,"id":"6861f383-7d4a-4e3e-9de7-81750414af9e","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.1534386478408647,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.04,"year":36,"after":{"army":65,"church":75,"people":60,"treasury":75},"blend":0.768,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:21.375Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":47,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.52,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.93,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.23,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.25,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:21.549Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":47,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"0"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":65,"church":71,"people":47,"treasury":74},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":2.25,"people":2.99,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.43,"people":0.93,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:23.371Z","v":3,"id":"2ab32d1f-994f-447b-a7aa-e5c9b1c7c55b","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8997961113749198,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.57,"year":37,"after":{"army":68,"church":70,"people":65,"treasury":75},"blend":0.16199999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:23.371Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":60,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.8200000000000001,"1":0.18,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"3":0.63,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.72,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.35,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.73,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":130},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:23.501Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"people":60,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+8","people":"-12","treasury":"+8"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+2","church":"-6","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":65,"church":75,"people":60,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.2,"church":2.69,"people":1.02,"treasury":2.67},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":1.49,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":130},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":2,"church":-6,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:25.369Z","v":3,"id":"91ba2428-9729-4a95-8a9f-7bd5ec9654d3","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.42568310252540464,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.35,"year":38,"after":{"army":69,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"blend":0.08599999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:25.369Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":65,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.29,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.31,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.54,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.62,"2":0.24,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:25.505Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":65,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":68,"church":70,"people":65,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.68,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.27,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:27.370Z","v":3,"id":"3f0dc751-7e95-4c92-84e6-510de9de42f7","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.6854373392853852,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.37,"year":39,"after":{"army":71,"church":80,"people":76,"treasury":63},"blend":0.266,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:27.370Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.49,"2":0.19,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.7,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.79,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.3,"3":0.69,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.37,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.11,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:27.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"},"Send grain":{"army":"+1","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":69,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.27,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.69,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2567,"applied":{"army":2,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.26,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:29.365Z","v":3,"id":"8a5d8cb9-83ba-48ab-90b2-347533b61f4d","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.34,"mock":false,"roll":0.5493612657952722,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.01,"year":40,"after":{"army":72,"church":81,"people":77,"treasury":63},"blend":0.274,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:29.365Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.95,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.97,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":133},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:29.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":71,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":71,"church":80,"people":76,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":2,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":133},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:31.375Z","v":3,"id":"48801441-1a23-4f83-a2f8-5de16810a733","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.10776462792322694,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.24,"year":41,"after":{"army":73,"church":80,"people":84,"treasury":64},"blend":0.04799999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:31.375Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.11,"3":0.49,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.9,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.46,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:31.524Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":72,"church":81,"people":77,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":2.29,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.85,"people":2.46,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:33.372Z","v":3,"id":"93933be1-6276-4108-a2c8-4d3a85f72a5d","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.5215802279754294,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.01,"year":42,"after":{"army":65,"church":80,"people":82,"treasury":63},"blend":0.674,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:33.372Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.27,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.69,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.41,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:33.575Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+7","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":73,"church":80,"people":84,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.95,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.57,"church":1.75,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":7,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:35.372Z","v":3,"id":"ce34d302-56aa-4600-a69a-6b4cda814a4e","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.15897222917207943,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.88,"year":43,"after":{"army":61,"church":81,"people":69,"treasury":57},"blend":0.848,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:35.372Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.43,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.79,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.33,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:35.576Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":65,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-14","treasury":"-7"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":323}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":65,"church":80,"people":82,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.96,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.31,"people":2.35,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2731,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":323,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-14,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:37.370Z","v":3,"id":"34c1e0b5-47f3-4f79-8f94-f4d564e3522e","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5732126531846236,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.7,"year":44,"after":{"army":62,"church":85,"people":71,"treasury":59},"blend":0.17199999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:37.370Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.12,"3":0.55,"4":0.15}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.54,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:37.519Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":263}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":61,"church":81,"people":69,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.62,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.29,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":263,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:39.367Z","v":3,"id":"3d8e2f0e-84ec-488d-9cbd-24e2644774bd","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.38926098945865917,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.02,"year":45,"after":{"army":55,"church":86,"people":67,"treasury":49},"blend":0.78,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:39.367Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.29,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.23,"2":0.38,"3":0.31,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.54,"3":0.26,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.66,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:39.568Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":62,"church":85,"people":71,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.99,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.1,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:41.372Z","v":3,"id":"2dfee3f5-c5ad-4040-8171-8be269df1e2c","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.9306553747294215,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.99,"year":46,"after":{"army":50,"church":87,"people":62,"treasury":51},"blend":0.926,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:41.372Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.35,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.36,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.45,"3":0.26,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.23,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.24,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:41.570Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":86,"danger":["church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":55,"church":86,"people":67,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.87,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":2,"people":1.54,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:43.386Z","v":3,"id":"2c401383-aa27-4e9e-83ae-083feda41a23","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.9074161526912099,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.02,"year":47,"after":{"army":49,"church":89,"people":67,"treasury":58},"blend":0.788,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:43.386Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.53,"2":0.21,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.51,"2":0.25,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.77,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.62,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.52,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:43.561Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":87,"danger":["church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":50,"church":87,"people":62,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.17,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.09,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:45.373Z","v":3,"id":"36c4934b-6082-4d46-90c6-ab5c9938e898","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5805999724274415,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":48,"after":{"army":49,"church":89,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.008,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:45.373Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.93,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.35,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":125},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:45.498Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-7"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":49,"church":89,"people":67,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.08,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.95,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":125},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:47.374Z","v":3,"id":"59369d7a-a5f1-40a9-8515-dd0a3f0a1e5b","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.72,"mock":false,"roll":0.6389907447055805,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.01,"year":49,"after":{"army":44,"church":90,"people":64,"treasury":59},"blend":0.578,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:47.374Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.28,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.23,"2":0.47,"3":0.13,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:47.582Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":49,"church":89,"people":63,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.73,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":2.03,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:49.372Z","v":3,"id":"dffa9cc3-3894-4373-b2e6-1b9fc0567b57","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.20893224658049103,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0,"year":50,"after":{"army":44,"church":95,"people":62,"treasury":62},"blend":0.016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:49.372Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.07,"3":0.61,"4":0.2}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.18,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.15,"3":0.45,"4":0.12}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.21,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.09,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.38,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:49.547Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-2","church":"+10","people":"+7","treasury":"-7"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"-3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":44,"church":90,"people":64,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.85,"people":2.57,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.37,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.19}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":-2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":-3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:51.371Z","v":3,"id":"cc87b3be-7ea5-4097-ba53-d2366d1f74d7","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.51,"mock":false,"roll":0.5756713782119165,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.05,"year":51,"after":{"army":45,"church":97,"people":67,"treasury":70},"blend":0.41800000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:51.371Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":95,"danger":["church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.21,"2":0.24,"3":0.28,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.69,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.65,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.39,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:51.510Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":95,"danger":["church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"-10","treasury":"-15"},"A modest bust":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":44,"church":95,"people":62,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":2.09,"people":1.19,"treasury":0.72},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.07,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-10,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:53.381Z","v":3,"id":"b6d57894-0945-4bd5-a961-ced0db11b232","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.14972895405542141,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.34,"year":52,"after":{"army":42,"church":95,"people":79,"treasury":60},"blend":0.868,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:53.381Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.42,"3":0.17,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.05,"3":0.93,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.14,"3":0.8099999999999999,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:53.566Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":67,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":730,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":45,"church":97,"people":67,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.79,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.1,"people":1.74,"treasury":2.89}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:55.372Z","v":3,"id":"576daa13-5ee4-4def-add2-ad51f06b7ce1","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.2174798858596425,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.36,"year":53,"after":{"army":43,"church":96,"people":68,"treasury":73},"blend":0.864,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:55.372Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":95,"danger":["church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.47,"3":0.22,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.98,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.27,"3":0.71,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:55.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":42,"church":95,"people":79,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.96},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":2.06,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-11,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-12,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:57.380Z","v":3,"id":"28791ea4-485f-46fe-a9fa-8dc7726ed23b","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.24008288074124562,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.01,"year":54,"after":{"army":44,"church":97,"people":71,"treasury":77},"blend":0.0019999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:57.380Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.83,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.11,"2":0.24,"3":0.37,"4":0.15}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:57.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":96,"danger":["church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 96: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":43,"church":96,"people":68,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.29,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.04,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:25:59.375Z","v":3,"id":"872ce547-e558-4eb0-ad54-67fedbaff411","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.41350047430386616,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.26,"year":55,"after":{"army":45,"church":94,"people":80,"treasury":73},"blend":0.05199999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:59.375Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.82,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.1,"2":0.29,"3":0.26,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.3,"2":0.5,"3":0.08,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.2,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.13,"3":0.36,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.47,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:25:59.566Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"+2","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":44,"church":97,"people":71,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.19,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.65,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2697,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":2,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:01.376Z","v":3,"id":"296740b8-2ddc-4479-89dc-1aa32cba96e6","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.79,"mock":false,"roll":0.7799496143267528,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0,"year":56,"after":{"army":43,"church":94,"people":79,"treasury":72},"blend":0.6320000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:01.376Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.28,"2":0.33,"3":0.19,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.68,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.59,"2":0.32,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:01.527Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":45,"church":94,"people":80,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.72,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.93,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.84}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:03.381Z","v":3,"id":"b1d74dba-a026-4183-b2b2-825c47b635bd","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.03604431790070084,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.03,"year":57,"after":{"army":33,"church":94,"people":88,"treasury":82},"blend":0.005999999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:03.381Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.46,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.82,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.08,"2":0.51,"3":0.3,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.13,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.28,"3":0.69,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.16,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:03.553Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"-8","treasury":"-9"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":43,"church":94,"people":79,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.24,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.06,"church":1.94,"people":2.66,"treasury":2.71}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":-8,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:05.387Z","v":3,"id":"48bc1a76-7378-49da-9dce-572d1d4c7f15","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.8},"know":0.27,"mock":false,"roll":0.06987391386760033,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.01,"year":58,"after":{"army":23,"church":100,"people":76,"treasury":64},"blend":0.21800000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:05.387Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.62,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.09,"2":0.05,"3":0.44,"4":0.31}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.74,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.45,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.48,"3":0.48,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:05.597Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":94,"danger":["church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 80% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-13","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 94: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":814,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}}}},"latencyMs":224}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a18a0d5a-3da5-4644-b69b-bebcd2dcf826","before":{"army":33,"church":94,"people":88,"treasury":82},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":2.73,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.41},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.78,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2782,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":224,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-13,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:07.377Z","v":3,"id":"26c6a6c8-f262-4bbc-9711-54331fc614e6","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6675716410043613,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.27,"year":1,"after":{"army":55,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":46},"blend":0.1941,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:07.377Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.29,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.39,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:07.521Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+4","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.86,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2.35,"church":1.74,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":4,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:09.376Z","v":3,"id":"3938feb6-3e7b-4a0e-9c13-e98f7edd145e","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.470791645367443,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.69,"year":2,"after":{"army":58,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":48},"blend":0.7857,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:09.376Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":47,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.7,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:09.554Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":47,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":55,"church":48,"people":47,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":2.06,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.08},"right":{"army":1.3,"church":1.65,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:11.376Z","v":3,"id":"293e6423-19c5-461f-a6e8-a7573ce6f246","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9281845390757859,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.58,"year":3,"after":{"army":61,"church":54,"people":52,"treasury":50},"blend":0.39519999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:11.376Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:11.588Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":58,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.54,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":2.28,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:13.393Z","v":3,"id":"fc4fbfed-a201-4901-adbd-a6e39cf26f70","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.6226762582076757,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.17,"year":4,"after":{"army":60,"church":47,"people":40,"treasury":50},"blend":0.4274,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:13.393Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.5,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.95,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.92,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.21,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.2,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:13.633Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-3"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":61,"church":54,"people":52,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.25,"people":3,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.37,"people":0.92,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:15.393Z","v":3,"id":"57eaffcb-9937-42c3-b2c2-77dea32645a1","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.7194190969782328,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":59,"church":51,"people":29,"treasury":46},"blend":0.7292999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:15.393Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":40,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.05,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.91,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.23,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.48,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.31,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.59,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:15.585Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":40,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":60,"church":47,"people":40,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.21,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.44,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.25}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.59}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:17.384Z","v":3,"id":"83415eac-6815-4d04-8a8d-e78a951307ff","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.23296941674128524,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":54,"church":49,"people":24,"treasury":44},"blend":0.7787999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:17.384Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":29,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.33,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.39,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.42,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:17.561Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":29,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":59,"church":51,"people":29,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.79,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":1.8,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:19.377Z","v":3,"id":"a3dc9c2c-126f-4cd6-9744-f636b6130db1","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.047078557089075934,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.02,"year":7,"after":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":25,"treasury":48},"blend":0.3269,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:19.377Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":24,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1877,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.54,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:19.535Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":24,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":681,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":54,"church":49,"people":24,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.93,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.28},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.81,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2558,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:21.397Z","v":3,"id":"ca7cf287-ec97-49ce-be2d-dfbdd9b78e05","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7958648186529802,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.96,"year":8,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":23,"treasury":48},"blend":0.6464999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:21.397Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":25,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.68,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.76,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:21.529Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":25,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-10","church":"-11","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":25,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.11,"people":1.06,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.74,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-11,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:23.396Z","v":3,"id":"b7a2b014-e978-405f-b19e-f86df2db6ddb","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.44095310164756807,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.85,"year":9,"after":{"army":46,"church":37,"people":9,"treasury":33},"blend":0.5727999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:23.396Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":23,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.5,"2":0.09,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.8,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.57,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:23.581Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":23,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-16"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":23,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.06,"people":0.77,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.84,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:25.395Z","v":3,"id":"0cbd5ad6-9b51-493e-a4d8-7eafbcd1de6d","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8792159977812699,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":45,"church":33,"people":8,"treasury":37},"blend":0.6699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:25.395Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.37,"2":0.37,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.33,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.37,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.49,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.27,"2":0.48,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.29,"2":0.31,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:25.546Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-2","treasury":"+3"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":46,"church":37,"people":9,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.28,"people":1.09,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.62,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:27.376Z","v":3,"id":"d4d16112-2461-4cf5-972d-b3ccdf773f2b","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.019533345924018786,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.14,"year":11,"after":{"army":35,"church":16,"people":0,"treasury":53},"blend":0.0938,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:27.376Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.79,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.38,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.83,"1":0.16,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.41,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.46,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.01,"3":0.46,"4":0.44}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:27.549Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-18","people":"-22","treasury":"+15"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"36434931-1713-4389-bdf8-9cc703eb989f","before":{"army":45,"church":33,"people":8,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":0.46,"people":0.18,"treasury":3.21},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":2.47,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2701,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-17,"people":-21,"treasury":16},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-18,"people":-22,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:29.379Z","v":3,"id":"31e94668-14cf-4ec4-beac-1c21e67c3ee4","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.004613688000480787,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.04,"year":1,"after":{"army":47,"church":45,"people":48,"treasury":44},"blend":0.04,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:29.379Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.74,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:29.569Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+3","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:31.383Z","v":3,"id":"22116460-c509-4ad4-a142-ebe2a3011f4d","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7427649522712183,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.01,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":46,"people":53,"treasury":50},"blend":0.0166,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:31.383Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":47,"church":45,"people":48,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.63,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.04,"people":2.3,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:33.396Z","v":3,"id":"4a2ee446-5dc2-4234-b123-2b039078498f","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.18873781680807444,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.07,"year":3,"after":{"army":58,"church":45,"people":50,"treasury":49},"blend":0.05020000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:33.396Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":53,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.29,"3":0.7,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.33,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:33.592Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":49,"church":46,"people":53,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.76,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":2.7,"church":1.86,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":9,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":8,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:35.383Z","v":3,"id":"0704eb3e-3504-4a9a-ac13-38fe7b4fc52f","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.21950098419204722,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.06,"year":4,"after":{"army":59,"church":51,"people":63,"treasury":46},"blend":0.555,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:35.383Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":50,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.54,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.01,"3":0.97,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.4,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.43,"3":0.47,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":288},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:35.671Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":50,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":58,"church":45,"people":50,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.03,"church":2.4,"people":3,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.61,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":288},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:37.384Z","v":3,"id":"298c3dca-8346-4075-b3b0-236538156c38","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.31248727795723674,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.6,"year":5,"after":{"army":63,"church":52,"people":67,"treasury":55},"blend":0.21059999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:37.384Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.55,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.36,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.27,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:37.547Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":59,"church":51,"people":63,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.72,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.02,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":4,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:39.382Z","v":3,"id":"d814aff2-6f6a-4d31-829b-3b3cf60dd425","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.973910755761729,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":69,"church":51,"people":66,"treasury":54},"blend":0.34979999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:39.382Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":67,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.2,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.52,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.28,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.5,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":267},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:39.649Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":67,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":63,"church":52,"people":67,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.75,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.45,"church":1.87,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":267},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:41.384Z","v":3,"id":"1a1bbeea-d6ae-4b9f-ae3b-6fbbeb9fdd76","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.0019594087156034057,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":69,"church":52,"people":61,"treasury":46},"blend":0.33659999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:41.384Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":66,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:41.538Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":66,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":69,"church":51,"people":66,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.96,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.96,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:43.385Z","v":3,"id":"be75e215-7769-4c58-84c1-60cc2e21d659","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4032969022743318,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.15,"year":8,"after":{"army":76,"church":58,"people":70,"treasury":50},"blend":0.0708,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:43.385Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":61,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.59,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.32,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.33,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.72,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:43.519Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":69,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":61,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"+3"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-8","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":69,"church":52,"people":61,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.36,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":2.47,"church":2.39,"people":2.65,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":7,"church":6,"people":9,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":6,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:45.382Z","v":3,"id":"209436bc-b9aa-4b1b-886e-94cf79aa6290","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.176425730147578,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":77,"church":50,"people":66,"treasury":49},"blend":0.40259999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:45.382Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":70,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.4,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:45.514Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":245}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":76,"church":58,"people":70,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.28,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.38,"people":2,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":245,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:47.386Z","v":3,"id":"20591b13-d0c8-4b42-904c-96bf696fdab3","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7102971075845042,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.16,"year":10,"after":{"army":79,"church":52,"people":71,"treasury":57},"blend":0.0742,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:47.386Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":77,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":66,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.41,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:47.580Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":77,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":66,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":77,"church":50,"people":66,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.82,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.11,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:49.382Z","v":3,"id":"e5eb0190-ff07-430e-baf8-20d66c7c3576","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4280663679414176,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.01,"year":11,"after":{"army":82,"church":53,"people":73,"treasury":59},"blend":0.0166,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:49.382Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":79,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":71,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.77,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:49.524Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":79,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":71,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":79,"church":52,"people":71,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.96,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":2.03,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:51.384Z","v":3,"id":"f08c7207-6ad6-414a-84c8-720b51c7fe62","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9354595203074911,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.64,"year":12,"after":{"army":83,"church":57,"people":80,"treasury":56},"blend":0.2176,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:51.384Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":82,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.29,"3":0.37,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.45,"2":0.06,"3":0.41,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.45,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.5700000000000001,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:51.546Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":82,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-12","treasury":"+9"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":251}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":82,"church":53,"people":73,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":1.88,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.71},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.29,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":251,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-12,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:53.384Z","v":3,"id":"47309655-4164-46a2-9ac9-590197c239ad","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.8544410878446376,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.4,"year":13,"after":{"army":82,"church":48,"people":88,"treasury":52},"blend":0.7564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:53.384Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.31,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.52,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.24,"2":0.04,"3":0.59,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.61,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.08,"3":0.69,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.63,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:53.584Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"-15","treasury":"-10"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+7","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":83,"church":57,"people":80,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":2.25,"people":0.74,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.15,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":8,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:55.383Z","v":3,"id":"b30c1e3a-8890-4c7d-8129-02bbfaae442d","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.41,"mock":false,"roll":0.154272088185466,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":83,"church":48,"people":87,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6106,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:55.383Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":82,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.41,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:55.571Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":82,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":82,"church":48,"people":88,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.94,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.83,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2733,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.18}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:57.395Z","v":3,"id":"81ddf95b-be9f-4945-8de2-03b2d43b61d6","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.25224408382502617,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.96,"year":15,"after":{"army":83,"church":48,"people":88,"treasury":52},"blend":0.39899999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:57.395Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:57.580Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":83,"church":48,"people":87,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.93,"people":1.97,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.95,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:26:59.387Z","v":3,"id":"5dc3c699-701b-4806-a218-23066bc00261","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.573547239063823,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.9,"year":16,"after":{"army":80,"church":40,"people":76,"treasury":43},"blend":0.9594,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:59.387Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.37,"2":0.05,"3":0.3,"4":0.07}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.6,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.68,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.68,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.31,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.26,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:26:59.565Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":83,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"},"Send grain":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"+4","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":83,"church":48,"people":88,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.26,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.59,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:01.388Z","v":3,"id":"bf21a6e0-fe4d-46c3-bced-c61a77c361d5","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.33,"mock":false,"roll":0.4125753323861323,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.98,"year":17,"after":{"army":80,"church":37,"people":65,"treasury":42},"blend":0.5509999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:01.388Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.57,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.63,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.08,"2":0.14,"3":0.73,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:01.536Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":80,"church":40,"people":76,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.63,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.87,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.34}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:03.390Z","v":3,"id":"d1116c6e-fb29-4cbe-9349-02c2c8bfde85","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.0027182083561769765,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.15,"year":18,"after":{"army":72,"church":29,"people":50,"treasury":54},"blend":0.5922000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:03.390Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.64,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.16,"2":0.54,"3":0.23,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.61,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.71,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.1,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.02,"3":0.85,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:03.546Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-9","church":"-9","people":"-16","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":80,"church":37,"people":65,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.24,"people":0.67,"treasury":2.91},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.23,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-15,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-9,"people":-16,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:05.404Z","v":3,"id":"706af845-25af-4225-a16a-158ed0ff8ae5","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5151134631358314,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0,"year":19,"after":{"army":75,"church":30,"people":53,"treasury":59},"blend":0.006600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:05.404Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":50,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.81,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.64,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:05.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":72,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":72,"church":29,"people":50,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.85,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":2.04,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:07.393Z","v":3,"id":"da6d0e33-8b1b-4ae0-95ad-726821f24c2b","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8240578554567652,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.35,"year":20,"after":{"army":77,"church":33,"people":56,"treasury":63},"blend":0.1256,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:07.393Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":53,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.15,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.4,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.74,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.63,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:07.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":53,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":75,"church":30,"people":53,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.16,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.14,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:09.389Z","v":3,"id":"d225edc2-cf35-4fbd-a4e0-78ad60fd5fe1","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3983644492983822,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.96,"year":21,"after":{"army":80,"church":32,"people":55,"treasury":60},"blend":0.35279999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:09.389Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":77,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":56,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.35,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.45,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.61,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:09.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":77,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":56,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+2","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":77,"church":33,"people":56,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.97,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":1.87,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.67}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:11.393Z","v":3,"id":"05492ebb-f35b-4a5f-b935-bc3e71519db6","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.85,"mock":false,"roll":0.699986817424924,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.96,"year":22,"after":{"army":73,"church":26,"people":45,"treasury":51},"blend":0.8874,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:11.393Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.58,"2":0.23,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.42,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.69,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:11.603Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":80,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":80,"church":32,"people":55,"treasury":60},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.42,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.95,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:13.392Z","v":3,"id":"c19b1e85-134c-4b1f-9a6b-10adc60259f3","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3820967334761196,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0,"year":23,"after":{"army":75,"church":27,"people":49,"treasury":55},"blend":0.006600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:13.392Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.6,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.62,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:13.543Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":73,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":45,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":73,"church":26,"people":45,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.68,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.02,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:15.395Z","v":3,"id":"3ee6622f-24f0-4cad-8e9d-6bca9668e27c","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.45,"mock":false,"roll":0.8567520425261967,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.14,"year":24,"after":{"army":75,"church":23,"people":50,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3446,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:15.395Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":49,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.07,"3":0.67,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.5,"2":0.27,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.16,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.54,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:15.548Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":49,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"-6","treasury":"+5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":75,"church":27,"people":49,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.55,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.61,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-6,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.09}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:17.395Z","v":3,"id":"6fd5f692-3bcd-493d-93f2-a24aed41ea03","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.08975978777595595,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.97,"year":25,"after":{"army":76,"church":19,"people":35,"treasury":52},"blend":0.34299999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:17.395Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":50,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.48,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.53,"2":0.19,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.66,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.39,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.19,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:17.552Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":75,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":50,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"0","church":"-5","people":"-16","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":75,"church":23,"people":50,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.58,"people":0.67,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.39,"people":2.68,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-4,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-16,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:19.391Z","v":3,"id":"9ab50b25-f934-4097-a35a-243b7282c3b6","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4681200657372877,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.21,"year":26,"after":{"army":70,"church":23,"people":22,"treasury":44},"blend":0.7314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:19.391Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.19,"2":0.02,"3":0.58,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.69,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.15,"3":0.84,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:19.592Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":76,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"-14","treasury":"-9"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":261}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":76,"church":19,"people":35,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":2.21,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.28,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":4,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":261,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:21.410Z","v":3,"id":"f6d2cd5d-b9b1-4a61-94aa-1828a766b78b","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4198014784285866,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.98,"year":27,"after":{"army":66,"church":23,"people":22,"treasury":48},"blend":0.34639999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:21.410Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":70,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":22,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.27,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.21,"2":0.54,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.92,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.13,"2":0.34,"3":0.47,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:21.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":70,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":22,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":70,"church":23,"people":22,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.74,"people":1.2,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.9,"people":1.89,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:23.399Z","v":3,"id":"ad35428f-604a-459f-ba86-bcdb6c2d3039","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.8708609055576677,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.13,"year":28,"after":{"army":62,"church":21,"people":16,"treasury":50},"blend":0.12340000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:23.399Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":22,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.47,"2":0.33,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.22,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.53,"2":0.2,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.28,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:23.623Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":66,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":22,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":66,"church":23,"people":22,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.84,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.74,"people":1.43,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:25.391Z","v":3,"id":"0bbe190e-5054-47ed-8281-dbcdb5507709","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6700177332653776,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.91,"year":29,"after":{"army":63,"church":21,"people":20,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3094,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:25.391Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.46,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.58,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.75,"1":0.25,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.56,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.46,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.48,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":256},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:25.647Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-3","church":"-15","people":"-21","treasury":"-15"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":62,"church":21,"people":16,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":0.72,"people":0.26,"treasury":0.78},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.9,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":256},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-15,"people":-21,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:27.392Z","v":3,"id":"e0dfb3f0-3ace-484f-be8e-08e36e3954f1","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.740694497204293,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.04,"year":30,"after":{"army":64,"church":20,"people":26,"treasury":55},"blend":0.0136,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:27.392Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.49,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.72,"1":0.27,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.29,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.03,"4":0.94}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.55,"3":0.13,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:27.563Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-20","treasury":"+22"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":63,"church":21,"people":20,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.75,"people":0.31,"treasury":3.87},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.85,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-20,"treasury":22},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:29.395Z","v":3,"id":"88caeb56-6919-4289-99c5-becb910e02e5","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.0350508833680343,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":31,"after":{"army":56,"church":4,"people":14,"treasury":43},"blend":0.33999999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:29.395Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.41,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.81,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.56,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.16,"2":0.5,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.82,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.65,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:29.564Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-17","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":64,"church":20,"people":26,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":0.61,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.88,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-16,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-17,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:31.403Z","v":3,"id":"e7adb7f3-10c1-4663-875a-0e89af616918","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.66},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.056123105447912325,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.66,"year":32,"after":{"army":53,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":35},"blend":0.2244,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:31.403Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.28,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.61,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.46,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.51,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.51,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.63,"2":0.15,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:31.550Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 66% of the time.","description":"Aldric V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"church"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"01eb7647-d7e2-484b-85d9-47f8d17a912f","before":{"army":56,"church":4,"people":14,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.06,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.93,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.51}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.32,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:33.412Z","v":3,"id":"aab43e4e-a28c-476f-9bb1-197cdd1e8477","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5606799601698058,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":30,"church":59,"people":40,"treasury":58},"blend":0.7312,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:33.412Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.17,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.39,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.16,"2":0.04,"3":0.57,"4":0.17}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.64,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.44,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.16,"3":0.66,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:33.634Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+8","people":"-11","treasury":"+7"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.25,"church":2.63,"people":1.06,"treasury":2.56},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.25,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":9,"people":-10,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":8,"people":-11,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:35.410Z","v":3,"id":"30875a18-4a79-44f3-8058-0e5bed522b14","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5125305545194594,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.53,"year":2,"after":{"army":30,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3844,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:35.410Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":40,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.53,"right":0.47}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.56,"2":0.18,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.63,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.23,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.45,"2":0.15,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.45,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:35.600Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":40,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-16","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":30,"church":59,"people":40,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.46,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.09,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-16,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:37.413Z","v":3,"id":"3f239ef0-4edd-4d63-bec9-2921f7efabe7","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.0025932845100660185,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.06,"year":3,"after":{"army":28,"church":60,"people":40,"treasury":49},"blend":0.09920000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:37.413Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.46,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.59,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.6,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.23,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.25,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:37.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":30,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.81,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.16,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-11,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:39.398Z","v":3,"id":"8498b41a-bc72-4bb2-ac3b-c3b2394db983","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5767297820276989,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":18,"church":69,"people":27,"treasury":32},"blend":0.7312,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:39.398Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":40,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.59,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.03,"3":0.46,"4":0.27}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.21,"3":0.65,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.43,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.21,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:39.626Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":40,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+7","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-11","church":"+8","people":"-14","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":28,"church":60,"people":40,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":2.7,"people":0.87,"treasury":0.47},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.3,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":9,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":8,"people":-14,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":7,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:41.404Z","v":3,"id":"055e9f5a-45de-40b1-8906-3a4f49b54b48","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7141107496624657,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":6,"church":72,"people":14,"treasury":26},"blend":0.72,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:41.404Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.67,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.24,"2":0.02,"3":0.51,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.3,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:41.610Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-13","church":"+2","people":"-14","treasury":"-7"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":18,"church":69,"people":27,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.95,"church":2.15,"people":0.84,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.19,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":3,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":2,"people":-14,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:43.416Z","v":3,"id":"5b5837b3-13af-43f3-9241-954fd5f96d0e","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7364689828287947,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.48,"year":6,"after":{"army":3,"church":68,"people":8,"treasury":25},"blend":0.6255999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:43.416Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.6,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:43.550Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":6,"church":72,"people":14,"treasury":26},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":2.21,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.56,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.84}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:45.399Z","v":3,"id":"7ab0676a-4121-48b0-95a3-f5862cfa9224","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.28},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.04442822984389094,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.21,"year":7,"after":{"army":0,"church":61,"people":0,"treasury":30},"blend":0.1512,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:45.399Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.55,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.74,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.37,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.12,"3":0.68,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.43,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.93,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:45.586Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Edmund I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"+4"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2c2ae747-a283-46cb-bad2-15cc54114701","before":{"army":3,"church":68,"people":8,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.3,"people":1.06,"treasury":2.33},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":1.88,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.01}},"tokens":2709,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:47.406Z","v":3,"id":"d2149423-00ec-4a4b-bf9d-a9487adf268f","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6738438706622916,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"blend":0.4314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:47.406Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.24,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.67,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:47.551Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:49.400Z","v":3,"id":"ba035d6d-6f15-4077-938d-214e886128d1","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.9240091864295974,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":42,"church":52,"people":52,"treasury":54},"blend":0.5682,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:49.400Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.37,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.27,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.39,"2":0.47,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.56,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.6,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:49.605Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.88,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.29},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":1.97,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:51.422Z","v":3,"id":"0fd0cc90-15db-40d0-8704-eb9ba99332ba","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.003960758930412034,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.75,"year":3,"after":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":56},"blend":0.8754,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:51.422Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":52,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:51.596Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":52,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":42,"church":52,"people":52,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":2.03,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.28,"church":1.64,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:53.423Z","v":3,"id":"cb9ed0c0-cba1-4748-8b63-a08bce27cceb","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.19187591811167892,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.93,"year":4,"after":{"army":32,"church":39,"people":40,"treasury":45},"blend":0.40560000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:53.423Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.66,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.72,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.48,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:53.657Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-15","people":"-15","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":43,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":0.75,"people":0.77,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.18,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-15,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:55.414Z","v":3,"id":"b266c646-24d8-4462-a234-5f4ecbd49b8a","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.34659974680027905,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.94,"year":5,"after":{"army":28,"church":30,"people":27,"treasury":25},"blend":0.4099,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:55.414Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":40,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.16,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.68,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.54,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.79,"1":0.21,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:55.590Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":40,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-5","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-21"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":32,"church":39,"people":40,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.13,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.21},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.05,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.54}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:57.414Z","v":3,"id":"c123a73a-9b7b-411e-b0f2-0b847f53364b","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7872116119297268,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":28,"church":33,"people":30,"treasury":31},"blend":0.43570000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:57.414Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":27,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.18,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.42,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.63,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.4,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:57.577Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":27,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":28,"church":30,"people":27,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":1.82,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.2,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:27:59.406Z","v":3,"id":"77d56e37-e366-4195-97a3-59748706593d","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.09043389843023553,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":32,"treasury":20},"blend":0.4485,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:59.406Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":30,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.61,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.33,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.12,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.5,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.23,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.34,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:27:59.556Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":30,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":28,"church":33,"people":30,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.86,"people":2.09,"treasury":0.97},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.95,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:01.409Z","v":3,"id":"c49f9f56-9a81-4f95-8ea5-86b7cb9bf35b","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8600342285558689,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.89,"year":8,"after":{"army":19,"church":32,"people":39,"treasury":15},"blend":0.38270000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:01.409Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1962,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.57,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.34,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.31,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.59,"2":0.07,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.43,"2":0.38,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:01.585Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":793,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":32,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":1.61,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.9,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2755,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:03.406Z","v":3,"id":"a6ea9143-e6a6-4669-8f0d-10219467f4fd","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":0.57},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.35637886087051807,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":6,"church":24,"people":25,"treasury":0},"blend":0.43000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:03.406Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.7,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.61,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.64,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.66,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.41,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.93,"1":0.07,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.36,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:03.606Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 57% of the time.","description":"Hildegard I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-14","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-23"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"7738ea49-ef71-4c5f-89ec-0d3496973863","before":{"army":19,"church":32,"people":39,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":1.22,"people":0.77,"treasury":0.08},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.07,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2720,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:05.409Z","v":3,"id":"be5aaee2-6ec9-474c-a5b7-204ef6b0156f","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.20950571634939696,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":42,"church":46,"people":40,"treasury":39},"blend":0.5576000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:05.409Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.36,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.17,"3":0.79,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:05.663Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.55,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.27,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.74}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:07.452Z","v":3,"id":"cf446850-f93a-4216-8e67-55818d18044a","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7628373513453197,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":41,"treasury":47},"blend":0.5388000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:07.452Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":40,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.29,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.67,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.28,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.09,"3":0.52,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.54,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.26,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.9,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:07.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":40,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":42,"church":46,"people":40,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.81,"people":2.14,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.94,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:09.404Z","v":3,"id":"b97d6627-dedc-4529-aa9b-80499b9f15db","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.20197817933474038,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.2,"year":3,"after":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":44,"treasury":50},"blend":0.1107,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:09.404Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":41,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.75,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:09.617Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":41,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+2"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":43,"church":46,"people":41,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.85,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.03,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:11.406Z","v":3,"id":"e6541d6f-d4fc-451f-9a1f-9bc5cb8a6bb1","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3051576311175914,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.06,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":51},"blend":0.036500000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:11.406Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":44,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.62,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.75,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:11.603Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":44,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":44,"church":47,"people":44,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.99,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2.03,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:13.412Z","v":3,"id":"558234f8-73cb-4d6a-92ea-dfb0636b0db9","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8688176440790829,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.93,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":55},"blend":0.5023000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:13.412Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.67,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.27,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.68,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.71,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:13.589Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":46,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"0","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":48,"people":46,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.98,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.95,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:15.421Z","v":3,"id":"94b72a33-fe16-433d-aa4d-c3f428966231","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3551269521081766,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.8,"year":6,"after":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":31,"treasury":63},"blend":0.4428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:15.421Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.51,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.12,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"3":0.66,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.42,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:15.608Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":48,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-6"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":48,"church":48,"people":48,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.27,"people":0.5,"treasury":2.61},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.22,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:17.410Z","v":3,"id":"8c3cdbf2-6f46-4265-8228-bbee84712d09","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5220968728738917,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.93,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":31,"people":41,"treasury":62},"blend":0.5023000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:17.410Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":31,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.5,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.56,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.82,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.65,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.35,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:17.570Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":31,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"+3","people":"-16","treasury":"-10"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":31,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.22,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.17,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":3,"people":-16,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:19.410Z","v":3,"id":"5f3d4919-5d35-42fe-b1e1-d6472ce43a37","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8565169591554429,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.83,"year":8,"after":{"army":48,"church":35,"people":48,"treasury":67},"blend":0.4446,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:19.410Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":41,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.36,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":310},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:19.720Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":47,"church":31,"people":41,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":0.97,"people":0.73,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.21,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":310},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:21.411Z","v":3,"id":"90df2404-f922-46be-8322-4dde84e15e80","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.8036760777778114,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.91,"year":9,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":53,"treasury":60},"blend":0.5058,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:21.411Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":48,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.16,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.46,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"3":0.77,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:21.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":48,"church":35,"people":48,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":0.88,"people":1.19,"treasury":2.9},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.82,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":0,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-13,"people":-10,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:23.438Z","v":3,"id":"28dee712-e9b7-46ab-ad66-22be49ca1139","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2711304815343336,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.44,"year":10,"after":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":62,"treasury":58},"blend":0.24730000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:23.438Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":53,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.78,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.51,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.58,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.27,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.08,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:23.598Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":53,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-14","church":"-3","people":"-17","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":53,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.86,"church":1.78,"people":0.61,"treasury":3.92},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.98,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-3,"people":-17,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.13,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:25.410Z","v":3,"id":"e6af2c11-e627-4b90-b13d-17f0ccf0da8a","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5084202340566002,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":46,"church":46,"people":56,"treasury":47},"blend":0.5394,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:25.410Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":62,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.21,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.4,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.66,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.52,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:25.562Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":62,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":243}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":50,"church":47,"people":62,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.85,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.15,"people":2.16,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":243,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:27.453Z","v":3,"id":"445dd11a-adc1-46fc-86e8-fc4a40bd5012","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.21262978815069866,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.98,"year":12,"after":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":51,"treasury":37},"blend":0.5287999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:27.453Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":56,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.61,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.55,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:27.637Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":56,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":46,"people":56,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.79,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.92,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:29.412Z","v":3,"id":"da2a6d33-82bf-4fe7-a28a-3d1d955009a2","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4066003395120985,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.74,"year":13,"after":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":51,"treasury":39},"blend":0.3969,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:29.412Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":51,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.37,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:29.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":51,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":43,"church":44,"people":51,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.64,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.04,"people":1.93,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:31.417Z","v":3,"id":"b821d2c7-3e50-4fe4-99ac-7fd11e8d1bdc","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.4985960879635287,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.06,"year":14,"after":{"army":42,"church":43,"people":47,"treasury":33},"blend":0.47359999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:31.417Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":51,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.53,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.51,"2":0.4,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:31.560Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":51,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":51,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.97,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.75,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:33.413Z","v":3,"id":"c39e0bf7-4681-4c0f-a30c-382c891ce716","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5469769964469082,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.99,"year":15,"after":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":51,"treasury":40},"blend":0.5341,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:33.413Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":47,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.8,"2":0.2,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.37,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:33.575Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":47,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":42,"church":43,"people":47,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.64,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.1,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:35.411Z","v":3,"id":"79a1df7b-a4bd-4b6c-bd70-b455f476ac09","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9452543269600859,"step":12,"trap":0.85,"want":0.79,"year":16,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":42},"blend":0.42810000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:35.411Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":51,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.85,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.48,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.65,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.39,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:35.637Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":51,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":44,"church":45,"people":51,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.42,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.32,"church":2.25,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":5,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":4,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.57,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:37.423Z","v":3,"id":"209c0d08-369d-419e-a4ba-36e62a7f02ca","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.12462882795998942,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.96,"year":17,"after":{"army":46,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":32},"blend":0.5135000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:37.423Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.46,"2":0.26,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.52,"2":0.27,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.52,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":353},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:37.777Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":58,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":58,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.6,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.05,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":353},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:39.411Z","v":3,"id":"b7a1e171-cbcc-4342-96f4-00f2febb13f3","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.29695470729861406,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.98,"year":18,"after":{"army":46,"church":37,"people":35,"treasury":25},"blend":0.5335,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:39.411Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":54,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.17,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.46,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.25,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:39.585Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":54,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.27,"people":0.33,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":2.29,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:41.428Z","v":3,"id":"2f6c8f48-cb70-45d5-a048-6265a355dfc5","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.31,"mock":false,"roll":0.3814943070958634,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.39,"year":19,"after":{"army":46,"church":27,"people":38,"treasury":18},"blend":0.35240000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:41.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":35,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.05,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.21,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.36,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.98,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":377},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:41.805Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":35,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-4","church":"+10","people":"+5","treasury":"-12"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":37,"people":35,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.87,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.06,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":377},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":10,"people":5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.39}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:43.429Z","v":3,"id":"9c685d3d-631f-433a-96ef-f81f738063cf","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5453611194106616,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":48,"church":29,"people":45,"treasury":27},"blend":0.53,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:43.429Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.77,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.56,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.66,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.89,"1":0.11,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.29,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:43.608Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-11","church":"-10","people":"-15","treasury":"-23"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":46,"church":27,"people":38,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.18,"people":0.73,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.05,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.64}},"tokens":2672,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:45.428Z","v":3,"id":"a00900a2-0d4c-4a5d-abd9-9307ab4dd766","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.20546196339279033,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.17,"year":21,"after":{"army":48,"church":33,"people":58,"treasury":29},"blend":0.5507,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:45.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":45,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.61,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.27,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.28,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:45.607Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":45,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"+1"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":48,"church":29,"people":45,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":2.24,"people":2.98,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.45,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":13,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:47.431Z","v":3,"id":"5c2775bf-19f2-45dc-b88c-c10491a00cec","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.14407677757758308,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.81,"year":22,"after":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":19},"blend":0.5421,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:47.431Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":58,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1884,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.58,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.05,"3":0.87,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.9,"4":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:47.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":58,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+12"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":292}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":48,"church":33,"people":58,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.91,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.95,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.98}},"tokens":2570,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":292,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":12}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.52}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:49.412Z","v":3,"id":"09c30e37-26ba-4787-b978-880330a32b92","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.03913022321541271,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.68,"year":23,"after":{"army":41,"church":31,"people":72,"treasury":17},"blend":0.36040000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:49.412Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.68,"right":0.32}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.6,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.57,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.27,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.54,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.19,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:49.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"+8"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":69,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.78,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.79,"people":1.35,"treasury":2.64}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.36,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:51.428Z","v":3,"id":"9ef3a545-ab1b-4e54-8536-06c6518c2357","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.14869571149526717,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.24,"year":24,"after":{"army":20,"church":35,"people":62,"treasury":22},"blend":0.5314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:51.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1961,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.92,"1":0.06,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.15,"2":0.06,"3":0.42,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.49,"2":0.1,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.18,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.55,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.17,"2":0.14,"3":0.58,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:51.581Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":41,"church":31,"people":72,"treasury":17},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.13,"church":2.25,"people":1.11,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":1.36,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-21,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:53.417Z","v":3,"id":"4ddffdd3-6076-4e32-93e3-50477b7b2654","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.31602924920253517,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.95,"year":25,"after":{"army":6,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":6},"blend":0.5035,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:53.417Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.41,"2":0.06,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.56,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.6,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.67,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.28,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.24,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.46,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:53.566Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":20,"church":35,"people":62,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.79,"church":1.19,"people":0.78,"treasury":0.57},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.62,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.06}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":-14,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:55.424Z","v":3,"id":"3ea71a6e-c70f-433a-a633-dc00a2244de3","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7306276326961842,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.3,"year":26,"after":{"army":5,"church":32,"people":49,"treasury":4},"blend":0.1637,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:55.424Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.51,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.2,"2":0.12,"3":0.53,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.57,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.39,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.3,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:55.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":6,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":6},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.69,"church":2.19,"people":1.14,"treasury":0.4},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.41,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":2,"people":-10,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:57.432Z","v":3,"id":"01873774-8933-4066-bc00-20393fbad1cf","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.001041522091493663,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.79,"year":27,"after":{"army":3,"church":33,"people":49,"treasury":3},"blend":0.8652,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:57.432Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.64,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.29,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.56,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":261},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:57.694Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":4},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-12","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-15"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":118}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":5,"church":32,"people":49,"treasury":4},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.96,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1,"church":1.58,"people":1.48,"treasury":0.76}},"tokens":2725,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":118,"forecast":261},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-15}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:28:59.419Z","v":3,"id":"ed89daca-e215-4a84-a2f5-84de1e21d274","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.47},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6061842592327029,"step":12,"trap":0.88,"want":0.97,"year":28,"after":{"army":0,"church":33,"people":51,"treasury":2},"blend":0.5188,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:59.419Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.88,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.67,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.63,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:28:59.568Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":3},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 47% of the time.","description":"Osric III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-9"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c21bddfa-a42f-4253-b367-004ca0d40933","before":{"army":3,"church":33,"people":49,"treasury":3},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.72,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.88,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2734,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:01.433Z","v":3,"id":"bc3734f6-d75b-41b8-961c-1a52eea51668","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8757657791331397,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":53,"people":55,"treasury":51},"blend":0.20619999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:01.433Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.66,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.72,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.77,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.73,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.54,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.66,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:01.658Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.08,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.14,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:03.422Z","v":3,"id":"d2eff5ca-adb9-43e5-a0f1-d9f7be3b0bde","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2566910174584718,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":56,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":49},"blend":0.21239999999999992,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:03.422Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":55,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.22,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.55,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.3,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.57,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:03.597Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":55,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+6","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":49,"church":53,"people":55,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.76,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":2.51,"church":1.83,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:05.434Z","v":3,"id":"4988e7bc-56bc-4302-a908-9442d1b83262","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.814615063861106,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.89,"year":3,"after":{"army":56,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":40},"blend":0.19339999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:05.434Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.19,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.52,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.58,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:05.626Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":56,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.37,"people":0.4,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.36,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:07.426Z","v":3,"id":"fd2aba8f-24f9-4591-9c53-eb1ab6e93e55","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4184151860555765,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.97,"year":4,"after":{"army":55,"church":58,"people":68,"treasury":39},"blend":0.19239999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:07.426Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":67,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.22,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.68,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:07.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":67,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-10"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":56,"church":57,"people":67,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.42,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.96,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:09.419Z","v":3,"id":"715e840a-4e8b-43ec-a9a5-4d047372c446","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.2197636979798272,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.98,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":60,"people":67,"treasury":37},"blend":0.32389999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:09.419Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":68,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.18,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.31,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.61,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:09.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":55,"church":58,"people":68,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":2.07,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.84,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.65}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:11.422Z","v":3,"id":"9b7c7b29-98a1-413e-bde8-e591b6f6b5c4","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.16221076010267854,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.97,"year":6,"after":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":59,"treasury":31},"blend":0.2815,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:11.422Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":67,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.47,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.84,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.14,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:11.625Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":67,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":50,"church":60,"people":67,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.11,"church":1.79,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.09,"people":2.64,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-11,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:13.438Z","v":3,"id":"170f4cdd-c50c-4ef9-8e0c-0cf166cb329e","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6371134160383354,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":67,"treasury":34},"blend":0.20049999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:13.438Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":59,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.66,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.63,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.56,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.62,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:13.578Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":59,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"+1","church":"+4","people":"+7","treasury":"+2"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-15","people":"-17","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":52,"church":58,"people":59,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.86,"church":0.76,"people":0.56,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.35,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-15,"people":-17,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:15.425Z","v":3,"id":"0b2d00b2-d765-47d0-b440-e032b4897a18","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.13072629827453586,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.95,"year":8,"after":{"army":51,"church":63,"people":65,"treasury":30},"blend":0.9823999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:15.425Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":67,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.33,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.48,"2":0.07,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.14,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.83,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:15.626Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":67,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":67,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.9,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.58,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.03}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:17.422Z","v":3,"id":"a0d9942c-dc41-419f-9685-fbda66f8fa02","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7815353547603776,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.51,"year":9,"after":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":75,"treasury":29},"blend":0.11309999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:17.422Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":65,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.74,"2":0.18,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.51,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.33,"2":0.03,"3":0.51,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.05,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.62,"2":0.24,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.39,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:17.607Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":65,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"0","people":"-14","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":51,"church":63,"people":65,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.99,"people":0.82,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.28,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:19.428Z","v":3,"id":"498fcf19-8829-4fc5-94a9-8bfa78cd5831","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.43682226474178276,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.02,"year":10,"after":{"army":54,"church":47,"people":79,"treasury":27},"blend":0.14150000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:19.428Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":75,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.54,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.09,"3":0.58,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.31,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.71,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.45,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:19.598Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":75,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-10","church":"+4","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"},"Stand":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":52,"church":55,"people":75,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":2.32,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.25,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":4,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:21.443Z","v":3,"id":"0e96630a-1aeb-45b4-8729-fba48335a72c","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8701853123584655,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.04,"year":11,"after":{"army":56,"church":48,"people":79,"treasury":33},"blend":0.0319,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:21.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":79,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.69,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.3,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:21.628Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":79,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":54,"church":47,"people":79,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.86,"people":1.5,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.97,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:23.452Z","v":3,"id":"a38e95f6-2fb3-4dbe-a7a0-0cf255478613","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.9689711672722696,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.1,"year":12,"after":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":82,"treasury":26},"blend":0.08380000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:23.452Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":79,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.22,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.56,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.73,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:23.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":79,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-3","church":"-15","people":"-8","treasury":"+9"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"0","church":"+9","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":56,"church":48,"people":79,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":0.75,"people":1.3,"treasury":2.78},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.76,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2577,"applied":{"army":1,"church":10,"people":3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-15,"people":-8,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:25.443Z","v":3,"id":"e2071bdc-da45-413d-b9c4-41821e2f0c06","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.39314440006097384,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.87,"year":13,"after":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":13},"blend":0.8781000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:25.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.6,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.64,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.55,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":255},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:25.697Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-14"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":82,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.48,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.98,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":255},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:27.440Z","v":3,"id":"3a02144b-d6bd-4853-a7e5-8398385409f3","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.23757334075838155,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.96,"year":14,"after":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":14},"blend":0.9924,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:27.440Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:27.604Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.9,"people":1.95,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.89,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:29.426Z","v":3,"id":"5fcd4c84-1ebc-4aeb-b205-82625bf18cb1","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.43417861653688017,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":51,"church":59,"people":70,"treasury":13},"blend":0.19809999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:29.426Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":259}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.25,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.44,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":259,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:31.443Z","v":3,"id":"17f93193-76cb-45c2-8a44-a8d8172548ec","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9912199593226316,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.99,"year":16,"after":{"army":52,"church":64,"people":77,"treasury":13},"blend":0.18809999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:31.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.13,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.47,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.37,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":342},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:31.785Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-6"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":51,"church":59,"people":70,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.4,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.33,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2674,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":342},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:33.443Z","v":3,"id":"4d1c0304-690c-431c-80a9-30e859a53dca","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.00552804188330458,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":64,"people":74,"treasury":9},"blend":0.9838,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:33.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.26,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.33,"2":0.45,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.46,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.41,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:33.638Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-8","treasury":"-9"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":52,"church":64,"people":77,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.92,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.5,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:35.443Z","v":3,"id":"1c83f97c-19d1-43a2-884c-7b758e78fce4","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8267870168255089,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.12,"year":18,"after":{"army":52,"church":72,"people":79,"treasury":10},"blend":0.022799999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:35.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.7,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.26,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.48,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.61,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:35.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":124}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":51,"church":64,"people":74,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.29,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.57,"people":2.35,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":124,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:37.444Z","v":3,"id":"8b0db4df-00a6-4778-aabf-916962b7b920","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.7979470633512311,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.98,"year":19,"after":{"army":50,"church":67,"people":68,"treasury":5},"blend":0.8827999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:37.444Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.19,"3":0.6900000000000001,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.38,"2":0.46,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:37.621Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":52,"church":72,"people":79,"treasury":10},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.5,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":2,"people":2.57,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:39.425Z","v":3,"id":"e5b8e98d-27f5-4598-a651-b13e2651acfe","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2390173835995304,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.2,"year":20,"after":{"army":52,"church":68,"people":73,"treasury":11},"blend":0.03799999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:39.425Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":5},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.45,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.55,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.64,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:39.601Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":5},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-12","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":50,"church":67,"people":68,"treasury":5},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.96,"church":1.16,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.66},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.04,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:41.443Z","v":3,"id":"38c5948f-f74d-470f-a975-696d08ea71bb","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Edmund I","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.08468447851900152,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.98,"year":21,"after":{"army":47,"church":64,"people":63,"treasury":0},"blend":0.18619999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:41.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Edmund I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Edmund I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.23,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.63,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.18,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.17,"2":0.54,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.47,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.14,"2":0.31,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:41.683Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fda7d4f9-e4ee-4172-be74-991dd9efe363","before":{"army":52,"church":68,"people":73,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.6,"people":1.11,"treasury":0.49},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.55,"people":1.68,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:43.430Z","v":3,"id":"e1e02da9-71d6-41d9-8926-e4b20bee4ada","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.606433626175342,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":42,"church":62,"people":39,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:43.430Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.69,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.03,"3":0.54,"4":0.28}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.87,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.14,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.19,"3":0.67,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.49,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.19,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:43.653Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+1","church":"-8","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-9","church":"+11","people":"-12","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.91,"people":0.97,"treasury":0.52},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":1.3,"people":2.57,"treasury":2.59}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":12,"people":-11,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":11,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:45.432Z","v":3,"id":"38657e09-741a-4ebf-957e-b81147f8453f","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.7253749892123427,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.28,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":67,"people":40,"treasury":35},"blend":0.1926,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:45.432Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":39,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.21,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:45.644Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":39,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":281}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":42,"church":62,"people":39,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.43,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.33,"people":2.03,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":281,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:47.435Z","v":3,"id":"a80538dd-43ed-4bb1-b235-533c7dbfed64","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.8343453365862497,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.92,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":73,"people":44,"treasury":36},"blend":0.92,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:47.435Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":40,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.71,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:47.587Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":40,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":43,"church":67,"people":40,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":2.44,"people":2.25,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.61,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:49.431Z","v":3,"id":"5b052847-f7f4-4603-898e-2605a2b3de83","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.58,"mock":false,"roll":0.3143813891200673,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.81,"year":4,"after":{"army":38,"church":78,"people":43,"treasury":35},"blend":0.7225999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:49.431Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":44,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.32,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.5,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:49.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":44,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"+4","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":45,"church":73,"people":44,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2.36,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":2.37,"church":1.59,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":5,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":219},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":4,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":4,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:51.446Z","v":3,"id":"c09f5215-bace-4c7c-8bf3-e922e1a7875c","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.048409287599755935,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.36,"year":5,"after":{"army":36,"church":79,"people":43,"treasury":25},"blend":0.22699999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:51.446Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":43,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:51.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":43,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":38,"church":78,"people":43,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.04,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:53.431Z","v":3,"id":"643d8a57-14d6-4a67-b840-68631e94d62a","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.30311501842354893,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.17,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":80,"people":52,"treasury":25},"blend":0.12440000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:53.431Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":43,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.65,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.44,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.42,"3":0.3,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.53,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.23,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.03,"4":0.95}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.59,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:53.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":43,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-1"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-15","church":"+1","people":"-17","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":723,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":36,"church":79,"people":43,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.74,"church":2.05,"people":0.58,"treasury":3.9},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.96,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":1,"people":-17,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:55.445Z","v":3,"id":"dbb327e1-43b4-41ac-a53c-61270caf80c9","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7123498877641636,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.95,"year":7,"after":{"army":37,"church":81,"people":59,"treasury":34},"blend":0.589,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:55.445Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.62,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.32,"4":0.33}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.49,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.47,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.2,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.32,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:55.623Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-14","church":"+5","people":"-14","treasury":"-21"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":38,"church":80,"people":52,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.84,"church":2.45,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.21},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.01,"people":2.47,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:57.448Z","v":3,"id":"d854eaaa-694e-44cb-b7a6-e959276e2865","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.7691476639062989,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.11,"year":8,"after":{"army":34,"church":83,"people":69,"treasury":26},"blend":0.2202,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:57.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.58,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.36,"3":0.33,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.98,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.61,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.18000000000000002,"3":0.78,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:57.604Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":37,"church":81,"people":59,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.05,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.95},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":2.07,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.24}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.2}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:29:59.433Z","v":3,"id":"3673db95-6db7-4f59-a5f5-5af04f51cf4a","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.30086913693168427,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":27,"church":90,"people":55,"treasury":18},"blend":0.62,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:59.433Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.12,"2":0.04,"3":0.43,"4":0.26}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.69,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.74,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.07,"3":0.69,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.53,"2":0.29,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.56,"2":0.32,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":239},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:29:59.672Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-8","church":"+6","people":"-15","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-6","church":"-13","people":"+6","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":229}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":34,"church":83,"people":69,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":2.52,"people":0.74,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.46,"church":0.93,"people":2.47,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":7,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":229,"forecast":239},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":6,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-13,"people":6,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:01.439Z","v":3,"id":"1b3a3354-53c2-4c75-b774-d3a346a7d6f0","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8548535496028382,"step":12,"trap":0.84,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":26,"church":84,"people":59,"treasury":20},"blend":0.6138,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:01.439Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.84,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6,"2":0.32,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.14,"2":0.04,"3":0.41,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.62,"2":0.18,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.55,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.53,"2":0.08,"3":0.29,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.44,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:01.623Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":90,"danger":["church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-13","treasury":"-5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 90: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":787,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":279}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":27,"church":90,"people":55,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.28,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.41,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2751,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":279,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:03.439Z","v":3,"id":"2dddbc04-64d1-4a35-a8ef-76bc9baac40c","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.2932519748586111,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.26,"year":11,"after":{"army":25,"church":85,"people":55,"treasury":11},"blend":0.2714,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:03.439Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.6,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.57,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.44,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:03.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"},"Investigate":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":26,"church":84,"people":59,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":2.19,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.27},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.98,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2729,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.43}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:05.448Z","v":3,"id":"3776d02d-c96e-4451-8363-d3dcef124a5b","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.07732957697356047,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.2,"year":12,"after":{"army":19,"church":84,"people":42,"treasury":10},"blend":0.2,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:05.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.73,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.37,"2":0.09,"3":0.37,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.74,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.52,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.28,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.44,"2":0.08,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.41,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":275},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:05.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":55,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-14","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":787,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":25,"church":85,"people":55,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.85,"people":0.8,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2755,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-13,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":275},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-14,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:07.438Z","v":3,"id":"c47ab235-028b-41b0-9eb2-d8c87702af95","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.32127261669586993,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.67,"year":13,"after":{"army":9,"church":84,"people":39,"treasury":0},"blend":0.43440000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:07.438Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":42,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide IV, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1990,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.23,"2":0.13,"3":0.39,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.33,"2":0.07,"3":0.38,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.43,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.32,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.64,"1":0.36,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:07.608Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":42,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Frideswide IV defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-11","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-20"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":825,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"46dcd091-6d7a-464a-b7e9-2db239c96f64","before":{"army":19,"church":84,"people":42,"treasury":10},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.91,"people":1.67,"treasury":0.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.15,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2815,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:09.433Z","v":3,"id":"b5687d8e-f027-476f-8bc5-d3243549aca7","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.039033395632280365,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.21,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":57},"blend":0.2784,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:09.433Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.78,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.6,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.33,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:09.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.85,"people":1.29,"treasury":2.47},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.24,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:11.439Z","v":3,"id":"31c166b2-2a9c-4c38-ae08-1883f784dde4","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7316362051829204,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.03,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":45,"treasury":55},"blend":0.0148,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:11.439Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":42,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.3,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.57,"2":0.32,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.88,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.76,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.79,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":256},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:11.695Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":42,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.4,"people":1.06,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.1,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":256},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:13.445Z","v":3,"id":"df1cdffb-dec2-4fea-858a-f333c626b511","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.9862044224376587,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":53},"blend":0.3236,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:13.445Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":45,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.68,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:13.639Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":45,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-5","church":"+7","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:15.441Z","v":3,"id":"713e9a4c-f53e-4220-a137-8b2c1c70f1c4","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.190459545692089,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":40,"church":50,"people":44,"treasury":48},"blend":0.278,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:15.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.68,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.62,"4":0.11}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.13,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:15.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":47,"church":42,"people":56,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2.57,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.23,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:17.437Z","v":3,"id":"216a6091-07c2-475b-8e1d-a9d462f3f39d","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.9760680447396786,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.63,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":51,"people":44,"treasury":48},"blend":0.896,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:17.437Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":44,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":363},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:17.800Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":40,"church":50,"people":44,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":2.04,"people":1.99,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.96,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":363},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:19.439Z","v":3,"id":"8fc01403-59a6-4423-be0f-88e893adeefa","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.25940567788780644,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.52,"year":6,"after":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":50},"blend":0.1324,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:19.439Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":44,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.59,"2":0.08,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.54,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.75,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:19.603Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":44,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":39,"church":51,"people":44,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.13,"people":0.83,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.32,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":7,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:21.439Z","v":3,"id":"921e9aa1-e807-4af1-8d0b-2abfe7d1b648","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.1621705974461034,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.16,"year":7,"after":{"army":39,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":43},"blend":0.1372,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:21.439Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":51,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.53,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.49,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.94,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.73,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:21.584Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":51,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-8"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-11","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":51,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.81,"people":1.05,"treasury":2.23},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.35,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:23.450Z","v":3,"id":"0fdf2639-0d75-4052-997b-80158248a8d2","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.24489037197325114,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.86,"year":8,"after":{"army":37,"church":61,"people":62,"treasury":42},"blend":0.214,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:23.450Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.32,"3":0.33,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.63,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:23.622Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":39,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.99,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.93,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:25.445Z","v":3,"id":"fb079542-6010-4cb1-8780-92652d98664e","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.21589817127130817,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.23,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":69,"people":74,"treasury":31},"blend":0.1768,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:25.445Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":62,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.26,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.23,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.04,"3":0.91,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.21,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.98,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:25.648Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":62,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":37,"church":61,"people":62,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.43,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.6,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:27.457Z","v":3,"id":"0d5b7fd0-c3bd-44b8-8923-fbe6b642e65c","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.76,"mock":false,"roll":0.5555279887106015,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.98,"year":10,"after":{"army":36,"church":77,"people":87,"treasury":27},"blend":0.8128,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:27.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":74,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.33,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.9299999999999999,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.48,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.35,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:27.614Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":74,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"},"Return it":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"+12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":36,"church":69,"people":74,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":2.57,"people":3,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.32,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.52}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:29.437Z","v":3,"id":"b1142867-d1e5-48ad-96ad-407d16b89ea5","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.12358267922774213,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.36,"year":11,"after":{"army":34,"church":76,"people":83,"treasury":19},"blend":0.7628,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:29.437Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.36,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.49,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.57,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.84,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:29.638Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":36,"church":77,"people":87,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.83,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.28,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:31.455Z","v":3,"id":"535b2711-7328-4b72-bd95-5a11eba29501","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.2266869152015818,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.34,"year":12,"after":{"army":32,"church":74,"people":72,"treasury":17},"blend":0.8112,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:31.455Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.37,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.74,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.39,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.12,"2":0.14,"3":0.57,"4":0.07}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.27,"2":0.56,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.59,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:31.616Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":34,"church":76,"people":83,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.79,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.82,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2717,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.32,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:33.454Z","v":3,"id":"f9fbf1bd-f385-47b7-9127-7275db9cd5d8","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6318963190585534,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":27,"church":64,"people":78,"treasury":11},"blend":0.2552,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:33.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.26,"2":0.04,"3":0.49,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.77,"2":0.04,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.06,"3":0.67,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.41,"2":0.25,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.54,"2":0.27,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:33.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-8","church":"+1","people":"-16","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-6","church":"-11","people":"+5","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":32,"church":74,"people":72,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":2.05,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.06,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-10,"people":6,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":-16,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:35.441Z","v":3,"id":"63c26e0e-90b5-4537-93e3-bf598dc2cba5","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.25148390031722645,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":7,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":19},"blend":0.9848,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:35.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1970,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.51,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"3":0.51,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.49,"2":0.16,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.42,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.17,"3":0.67,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.5,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:35.642Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-21","church":"+6","people":"-10","treasury":"+7"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":27,"church":64,"people":78,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.29,"church":2.46,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.55},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.35,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2738,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":6,"people":-10,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:37.454Z","v":3,"id":"907ab6a5-62a6-4b35-bd24-749194fd9907","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Leopold V","wisdom":0.76},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.04555128982523837,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":0,"church":68,"people":54,"treasury":0},"blend":0.24,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:37.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Leopold V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1978,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.54,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.25,"2":0.02,"3":0.38,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.54,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.62,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.22,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.13,"2":0.34,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:37.616Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Leopold V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 76% of the time.","description":"Leopold V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-14","church":"-4","people":"-16","treasury":"-23"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-2","church":"-13","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":798,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a395ca95-30b0-4e58-b31f-4c07a2888b05","before":{"army":7,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.84,"church":1.7,"people":0.63,"treasury":0.05},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":0.88,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2776,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-3,"people":-15,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-4,"people":-16,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-13,"people":4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:39.438Z","v":3,"id":"152700b0-4b35-4033-9ae6-7ca8305c2d3d","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.37392728371669537,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.42,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"blend":0.1781,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:39.438Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.45,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:39.582Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.97,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:41.448Z","v":3,"id":"47f47818-7a00-4cf0-82b6-4b60113308d5","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6560353461735493,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":58,"treasury":59},"blend":0.41180000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:41.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.27,"2":0.21,"3":0.46,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.69,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.78,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.53,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.86,"1":0.14,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.53,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":307},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:41.755Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"+2","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-22"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.14,"church":1.11,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.07,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":307},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:43.441Z","v":3,"id":"f2bc1aee-21ae-407d-8ad5-881b507911cb","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5363992979279613,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":54,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.41180000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:43.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":58,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.21,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.56,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.9,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.64,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:43.580Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":58,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":51,"church":53,"people":58,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.51,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.05,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:45.457Z","v":3,"id":"f1d8121e-0a33-480d-97e8-d1f8c0ce8f94","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.733124802381312,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.34,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":65,"people":59,"treasury":53},"blend":0.6468,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:45.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.09,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.31,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:45.710Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-10","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":54,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.18,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.91},"right":{"army":1.09,"church":2.74,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-10,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:47.459Z","v":3,"id":"9cb813ca-eac6-4c32-92e7-c9ee21ca867b","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.055356173231621675,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":49,"treasury":43},"blend":0.4395,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:47.459Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":59,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.32,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:47.643Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":59,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":44,"church":65,"people":59,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.32,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":2.02,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:49.441Z","v":3,"id":"672f28e0-114c-4f5c-a020-2b5abd433ac7","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4460595584049265,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.05,"year":6,"after":{"army":43,"church":61,"people":61,"treasury":44},"blend":0.026400000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:49.441Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":49,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.38,"2":0.48,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.73,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.08,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.28,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:49.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":49,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":49,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.49,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.93},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.2,"people":2.88,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:51.443Z","v":3,"id":"7b37d57e-ba7a-48c2-977f-1d3a044ce246","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.31934728373681565,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.04,"year":7,"after":{"army":40,"church":61,"people":60,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5474,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:51.443Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":61,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.64,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:51.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:53.448Z","v":3,"id":"ec709792-38fe-4695-9148-739cb52c549a","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1051259306729142,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.99,"year":8,"after":{"army":34,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":31},"blend":0.41180000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:53.448Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.66,"2":0.14,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.82,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.69,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.87,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:53.594Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":40,"church":61,"people":60,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.23,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":2.14,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:55.464Z","v":3,"id":"99a3e1b2-acc0-424b-a3c6-d3c2d9297eab","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.6107288410160696,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.96,"year":9,"after":{"army":34,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":28},"blend":0.9481999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:55.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":48,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.3,"3":0.69,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:55.621Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":48,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":34,"church":53,"people":48,"treasury":31},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":2.11,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.74,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:57.462Z","v":3,"id":"a7c9c3fb-704e-4ed0-8f28-ee8931ec6c38","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.05424434474030937,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.71,"year":10,"after":{"army":29,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":19},"blend":0.3029,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:57.462Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":57,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.68,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.53,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:57.620Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":57,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":249}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":34,"church":55,"people":57,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.92,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.41}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":249,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:30:59.449Z","v":3,"id":"688c9610-9b21-4f09-b921-6be0645301e7","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8919057203055056,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":22,"church":56,"people":54,"treasury":12},"blend":0.41590000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:59.449Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.36,"2":0.05,"3":0.46,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.75,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.5700000000000001,"1":0.43,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.67,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.31,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":251},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:30:59.700Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":52,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-1","church":"-12","people":"-19","treasury":"-22"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":29,"church":55,"people":52,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.01,"people":0.45,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":2,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":251},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-12,"people":-19,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:01.454Z","v":3,"id":"4ae63188-2711-4eff-a089-59fed56d8e30","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.28487413670246564,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.17,"year":12,"after":{"army":27,"church":60,"people":61,"treasury":13},"blend":0.06970000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:01.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":54,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.49,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:01.664Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":54,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-9","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":22,"church":56,"people":54,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.43,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.26,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":5,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":4,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:03.467Z","v":3,"id":"1fb1999c-e3ca-4a3b-a6c8-99eea67d3cc4","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2666796895476533,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":19,"church":55,"people":48,"treasury":0},"blend":0.41000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:03.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.43,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.74,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.34,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.74,"1":0.26,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.27,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:03.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Aldric V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-21"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1009ac61-8197-4783-83d3-526e86e565d2","before":{"army":27,"church":60,"people":61,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.46,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.27},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.06,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:05.465Z","v":3,"id":"2dfceaca-ca3e-4031-9934-edd7e8e1c28c","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0917447861668379,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.25,"year":1,"after":{"army":29,"church":58,"people":40,"treasury":58},"blend":0.1097,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:05.465Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.86,"1":0.12,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.13,"2":0.06,"3":0.62,"4":0.12}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.59,"2":0.1,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.39,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.54,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.13,"3":0.67,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:05.700Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+7","people":"-11","treasury":"+7"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+3","church":"-4","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.15,"church":2.6,"people":1.05,"treasury":2.56},"right":{"army":2.29,"church":1.65,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2647,"applied":{"army":-21,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":3,"church":-4,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:07.454Z","v":3,"id":"2915744b-f9e4-4f4e-802d-74586bfd65b3","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.4621127582872109,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.89,"year":2,"after":{"army":33,"church":50,"people":36,"treasury":58},"blend":0.7802,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:07.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":40,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.56,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.07,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.31,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:07.664Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":40,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+3","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":29,"church":58,"people":40,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.29,"church":1.23,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.05,"church":2.74,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.41}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:09.449Z","v":3,"id":"5e5cadf3-a8ab-4563-91cc-3c65fa9dbc73","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.22083382016208208,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0,"year":3,"after":{"army":35,"church":52,"people":39,"treasury":62},"blend":0.0061,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:09.449Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":36,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.72,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:09.636Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":36,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":33,"church":50,"people":36,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.8,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.07,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2583,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:11.455Z","v":3,"id":"e643c1ca-8beb-419a-9b15-b1fb1e190fc6","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8651457520891443,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.03,"year":4,"after":{"army":38,"church":60,"people":46,"treasury":61},"blend":0.0361,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:11.455Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":39,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.69,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.45,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.38,"4":0.57}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:11.661Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":39,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-15","people":"-16","treasury":"+18"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":35,"church":52,"people":39,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":0.74,"people":0.7,"treasury":3.48},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":2.55,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":3,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-16,"treasury":18},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:13.502Z","v":3,"id":"9b41888f-1ada-4a61-8569-1e9250280b0c","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.46347732252002394,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.88,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3493,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:13.502Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":46,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.59,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.68,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:13.704Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":46,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":38,"church":60,"people":46,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.51,"people":0.93,"treasury":0.93},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.03,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:15.453Z","v":3,"id":"42ee9ab5-b76b-44bd-bd5b-1906005567f3","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6711162329053333,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":38,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3922,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:15.453Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:15.664Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":39,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.94,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.98,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:17.470Z","v":3,"id":"260c0a18-3849-43ef-9e9c-529c9891b67e","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6732147267313688,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.16,"year":7,"after":{"army":45,"church":67,"people":59,"treasury":62},"blend":0.0746,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:17.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.47,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.66,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.32,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.32,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:17.675Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+6","church":"+4","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-9","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":38,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.4,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":2.49,"church":2.3,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":7,"church":5,"people":9,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-9,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":6,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:19.452Z","v":3,"id":"664a5193-05f4-4388-9458-4d4c7274e5e3","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.48,"mock":false,"roll":0.680095155496462,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.05,"year":8,"after":{"army":45,"church":65,"people":53,"treasury":69},"blend":0.3123,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:19.452Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":59,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.36,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.06,"3":0.69,"4":0.05}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.22,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.44,"3":0.54,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:19.669Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":59,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":45,"church":67,"people":59,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":2.21,"people":2.57,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.74,"people":1.41,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:21.472Z","v":3,"id":"82bd1168-42de-4121-9180-410b5f4e4153","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.15369285879763295,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":55,"treasury":70},"blend":0.9656,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:21.472Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":53,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:21.646Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":53,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":45,"church":65,"people":53,"treasury":69},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.12,"church":2.09,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.84,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:23.472Z","v":3,"id":"cec3b2a4-f119-48f5-9f19-8f990a11bdd3","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5765775567125466,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.96,"year":10,"after":{"army":46,"church":68,"people":56,"treasury":71},"blend":0.3805,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:23.472Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":55,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:23.629Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":55,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":47,"church":67,"people":55,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.53,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.01,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:25.467Z","v":3,"id":"cbe531e4-9faf-435b-90a6-e320b9c4482d","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.2120612275521354,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.52,"year":11,"after":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":43,"treasury":72},"blend":0.26380000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:25.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":56,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.04,"3":0.58,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.16,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.15,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.28,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:25.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":56,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+3","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"0"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":46,"church":68,"people":56,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.25,"church":1.39,"people":0.8,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.39,"church":2.1,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:27.457Z","v":3,"id":"6c7a505f-f0de-40ea-a51f-9a8453c2fbc5","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.8234356004391914,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.02,"year":12,"after":{"army":50,"church":61,"people":37,"treasury":81},"blend":0.5751000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:27.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":43,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.24,"3":0.72,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:27.715Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":43,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+8"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":43,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.74,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.81,"people":1.44,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:29.460Z","v":3,"id":"191449d1-3dec-4759-a5fe-93faadc8b3d2","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.2611584246010126,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":26,"treasury":70},"blend":0.9939,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:29.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.68,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.77,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.7,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:29.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-11","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":50,"church":61,"people":37,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.2,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.09,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:31.468Z","v":3,"id":"5028e577-ea61-4917-85a9-48cf39dca35e","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9419529890664611,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":14,"after":{"army":35,"church":51,"people":25,"treasury":73},"blend":0.3983,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:31.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":26,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.28,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.55,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.39,"3":0.41000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:31.614Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":40,"church":52,"people":26,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.79,"people":1.25,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":1.85,"people":1.86,"treasury":2.16}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:33.465Z","v":3,"id":"029a1116-3c82-4501-bbe8-4d13110d87f7","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8222947574561383,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.99,"year":15,"after":{"army":42,"church":50,"people":26,"treasury":72},"blend":0.4044,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:33.465Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":25,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.23,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.7,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.46,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.33,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.57,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:33.634Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":35,"church":51,"people":25,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.8,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":2.48,"church":1.85,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":6,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:35.470Z","v":3,"id":"9b1404fe-3f77-48dc-99fa-90e5fa43893d","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.013137594328907376,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.46,"year":16,"after":{"army":42,"church":47,"people":14,"treasury":84},"blend":0.2587,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:35.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":26,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"left":0.46,"right":0.54}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.57,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.92,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.14,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.88,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:35.693Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":26,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":42,"church":50,"people":26,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.68,"people":0.92,"treasury":2.91},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.09,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.09,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:37.470Z","v":3,"id":"2b6e85b8-76b3-42f1-801f-7e2a26d23b06","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.7,"mock":false,"roll":0.1084182011476853,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.11,"year":17,"after":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":18,"treasury":90},"blend":0.4699,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:37.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.7,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.8,"2":0.04,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.24,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.05,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.26,"3":0.55,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.43,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:37.695Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"+1","church":"+8","people":"-9","treasury":"-3"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":42,"church":47,"people":14,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.16,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.42},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.64,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.39}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:39.454Z","v":3,"id":"247a8499-5d34-4ecd-b69b-259141b58ac2","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9879085889445514,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.83,"year":18,"after":{"army":50,"church":38,"people":22,"treasury":80},"blend":0.3298,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:39.454Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.11,"3":0.83,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.75,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.39,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.45,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.76,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:39.625Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+9","church":"-1","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":40,"church":38,"people":18,"treasury":90},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.45,"people":1.02,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":2.76,"church":1.92,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":9,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:41.464Z","v":3,"id":"8461e479-7254-4884-ba29-6717626d1819","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.8822780880042413,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.21,"year":19,"after":{"army":52,"church":48,"people":29,"treasury":81},"blend":0.3991,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:41.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.21,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.15,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.41,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:41.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"+1","church":"+9","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":50,"church":38,"people":22,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.26,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.77,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":2,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:43.473Z","v":3,"id":"20d7cd0b-ef46-455e-b0ab-259bf09460a1","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.754605872597941,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.43,"year":20,"after":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":29,"treasury":76},"blend":0.1738,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:43.473Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.52,"2":0.38,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:43.606Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":52,"church":48,"people":29,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.66,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.04,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.47}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:45.474Z","v":3,"id":"4b77e30c-73cf-4c91-b802-642b2a1b7ed9","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.46194986566009755,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.23,"year":21,"after":{"army":53,"church":50,"people":32,"treasury":79},"blend":0.1019,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:45.474Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":29,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.74,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:45.701Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":291}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":52,"church":49,"people":29,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.81,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.98,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":291,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:47.476Z","v":3,"id":"a410afea-936b-4b02-aee5-54f358bef1e8","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.14,"mock":false,"roll":0.25263475988220785,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.09,"year":22,"after":{"army":55,"church":42,"people":44,"treasury":81},"blend":0.1205,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:47.476Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":32,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.27,"2":0.05,"3":0.59,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.76,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.89,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:47.671Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":32,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"+11","treasury":"+1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"-15","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":53,"church":50,"people":32,"treasury":79},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":2.23,"people":0.77,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.29,"people":2.92,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:49.455Z","v":3,"id":"21d0fb04-cc72-4c2c-8c15-98f2f6b134f9","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.65,"mock":false,"roll":0.17685211992788696,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":48,"church":43,"people":41,"treasury":80},"blend":0.7787,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:49.455Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.36,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.73,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.61,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.6,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:49.660Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+3","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":55,"church":42,"people":44,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2.02,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":2.26,"church":1.86,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2655,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.31}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:51.459Z","v":3,"id":"2eefb079-74cf-4cc3-b7bc-cbf1afb1f766","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.40310335664886443,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.98,"year":24,"after":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":30,"treasury":81},"blend":0.4493,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:51.459Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.93,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:51.698Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":41,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"0"},"Meet them":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":48,"church":43,"people":41,"treasury":80},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.66,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.86,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:53.460Z","v":3,"id":"d6f06836-4025-43e1-80b7-95fa4e1b9aff","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.7611584107735614,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.23,"year":25,"after":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":32,"treasury":82},"blend":0.5655,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:53.460Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":47,"church":40,"people":30,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":2.63,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.46,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2680,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":8,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:55.459Z","v":3,"id":"a0a5d442-7dc8-4216-89c8-39305df5d42d","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.64,"mock":false,"roll":0.5151440082311718,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.86,"year":26,"after":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":28,"treasury":80},"blend":0.7258,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:55.459Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.21,"2":0.6,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:55.643Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":48,"church":47,"people":32,"treasury":82},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.86,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.27}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:57.477Z","v":3,"id":"d5580c66-92ec-4f50-92e2-a081394e46e2","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.8629537363623629,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0,"year":27,"after":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":23,"treasury":82},"blend":0.6039,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:57.477Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.73,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.6,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.57,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.43,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.42,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.51,"2":0.17,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.51,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.57,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:57.662Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-12","church":"-9","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"},"Turn them away":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":28,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.21,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.85,"people":1.5,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:31:59.458Z","v":3,"id":"3dc465dd-753f-4477-bb5a-aba3a5a47311","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.7237672685916083,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":1,"year":28,"after":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":19,"treasury":81},"blend":0.9451,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:59.458Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.36,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:31:59.672Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":48,"church":45,"people":23,"treasury":82},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.28,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.5,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:01.510Z","v":3,"id":"691ef11a-9ba3-41b4-9fbc-853a2dfc2001","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4915337676490894,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.93,"year":29,"after":{"army":49,"church":36,"people":25,"treasury":78},"blend":0.3627,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:01.510Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.18,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.17,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.29,"2":0.05,"3":0.51,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.42,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:01.667Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":787,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":19,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.53,"people":0.9,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.87,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2743,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:03.508Z","v":3,"id":"e7f6741d-a1f4-4062-8f31-71b0bc4fc414","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6962588385858997,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.14,"year":30,"after":{"army":50,"church":37,"people":29,"treasury":84},"blend":0.0729,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:03.508Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":25,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.62,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.53,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:03.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":25,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":49,"church":36,"people":25,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.88,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.01,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:05.477Z","v":3,"id":"b8a58663-650b-4fe2-83b9-dab9b13c6843","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.25,"mock":false,"roll":0.18390034185606474,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.95,"year":31,"after":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":30,"treasury":85},"blend":0.523,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:05.477Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:05.720Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.25,"right":0.75}}}},"latencyMs":273}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":50,"church":37,"people":29,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.96,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.94,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":273,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.5}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:07.463Z","v":3,"id":"accb4804-790e-4189-b766-379b21a278a1","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6900013897278818,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.08,"year":32,"after":{"army":51,"church":36,"people":25,"treasury":92},"blend":0.6412,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:07.463Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.61,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.03,"2":0.17,"3":0.59,"4":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:07.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+6"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":729,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":30,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.95,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.78,"people":1.51,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:09.457Z","v":3,"id":"e81649a0-3170-4fe3-af25-705f8731865a","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.64,"mock":false,"roll":0.4739684941637963,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":1,"year":33,"after":{"army":51,"church":36,"people":24,"treasury":91},"blend":0.7804,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:09.457Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.29,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:09.633Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":51,"church":36,"people":25,"treasury":92},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.94,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.83,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.28}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:11.476Z","v":3,"id":"c272d0b0-716e-4f2a-bb00-e7fe4fa6fade","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.67,"mock":false,"roll":0.8720347987470614,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.73,"year":34,"after":{"army":53,"church":38,"people":28,"treasury":88},"blend":0.6934,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:11.476Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["treasury is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":91},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.41,"2":0.37,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.56,"2":0.27,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.53,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.33,"2":0.14,"3":0.25,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.5,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:11.670Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 91: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":51,"church":36,"people":24,"treasury":91},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.47,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.28,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2669,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.34}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:13.479Z","v":3,"id":"2270b153-03df-4d1c-98f8-bd0181545de3","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.5,"mock":false,"roll":0.09964928027077913,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.14,"year":35,"after":{"army":52,"church":45,"people":23,"treasury":89},"blend":0.35960000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:13.479Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":88},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.06,"3":0.65,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.46,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.28,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.6,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.26,"2":0.05,"3":0.45,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:13.618Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":53,"church":38,"people":28,"treasury":88},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":2.5,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.66,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:15.476Z","v":3,"id":"5528479e-457a-4273-8a42-d222e042ecdd","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.018822164476358205,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.58,"year":36,"after":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":36,"treasury":83},"blend":0.8361999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:15.476Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.65,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.48,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.95,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.87,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.2,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.15,"2":0.22,"3":0.54,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:15.622Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":89},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-7"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":52,"church":45,"people":23,"treasury":89},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":2.36,"people":3,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.3,"people":0.87,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:17.462Z","v":3,"id":"54aa6391-4eaf-44df-b964-64a3cfbff243","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.20143844874550632,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.07,"year":37,"after":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":28,"treasury":72},"blend":0.6251,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:17.462Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.63,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.58,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.51,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:17.613Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":36,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.62,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.13,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:19.462Z","v":3,"id":"3651fc99-1900-4d6b-90b8-849a8f2e554f","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.9421338766975109,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.61,"year":38,"after":{"army":47,"church":41,"people":30,"treasury":77},"blend":0.2806,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:19.462Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":28,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.39,"2":0.05,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.91,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.2,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.45,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.29,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:19.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":28,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":48,"church":46,"people":28,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":2.05,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.49,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:21.464Z","v":3,"id":"afb51fd4-d0ba-44ab-bfba-0b41db944782","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8187298863904187,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.93,"year":39,"after":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":37,"treasury":83},"blend":0.3688,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:21.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":30,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.28,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.77,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.68,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.66,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.41,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.82,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:21.642Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":30,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-6","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-12"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":47,"church":41,"people":30,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.49,"church":0.98,"people":0.68,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.2,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:23.465Z","v":3,"id":"11781a38-d53b-4925-841a-2f077858a8af","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.3400341829902598,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.03,"year":40,"after":{"army":41,"church":43,"people":32,"treasury":74},"blend":0.6156,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:23.465Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.32,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.36,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.67,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.61,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.72,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:23.635Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":83},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-7","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":47,"church":44,"people":37,"treasury":83},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.86,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.01,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:25.466Z","v":3,"id":"25e4aa11-8f4c-4928-9901-ff84c52b7b73","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.891031787990594,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.97,"year":41,"after":{"army":42,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":75},"blend":0.3966,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:25.466Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.38,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.69,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.13,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.34,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.17,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:25.611Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:27.462Z","v":3,"id":"d3f9d807-29ce-420e-b405-d20d87bc7bf4","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7918842405459217,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.97,"year":42,"after":{"army":44,"church":54,"people":50,"treasury":78},"blend":0.3905,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:27.462Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":42,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.57,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.38,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.62,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.32,"3":0.65,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.69,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:27.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":42,"church":49,"people":42,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.87,"church":0.75,"people":0.39,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.3,"people":2.62,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-15,"people":-19,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:29.464Z","v":3,"id":"d0f72c9e-a15e-46b1-911b-7b33ac45e852","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9374640888417418,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.48,"year":43,"after":{"army":46,"church":45,"people":61,"treasury":76},"blend":0.1933,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:29.464Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":50,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.82,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.5,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.32,"2":0.04,"3":0.49,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.08,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.05,"3":0.82,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.68,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.34,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:29.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":50,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"0","people":"-14","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"+1","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":44,"church":54,"people":50,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":2.03,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.18,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:31.486Z","v":3,"id":"41dd1c5c-b57e-429d-b86d-5bc41501a5a7","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2540209760243153,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.92,"year":44,"after":{"army":40,"church":42,"people":50,"treasury":67},"blend":0.3588,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:31.486Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":61,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.7,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:31.684Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":61,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":312}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":46,"church":45,"people":61,"treasury":76},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.66,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":2.02,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":312,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:33.483Z","v":3,"id":"fae76736-447f-447f-8614-01c587bcb1aa","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.8842910884897088,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.91,"year":45,"after":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":62,"treasury":56},"blend":0.40370000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:33.483Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":50,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.35,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.04,"3":0.91,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.35,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:33.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":50,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+6","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":40,"church":42,"people":50,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.43,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.52,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":126},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:35.484Z","v":3,"id":"386d7a74-ce82-4a45-a1c7-52921db60907","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.7447103400525483,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.11,"year":46,"after":{"army":39,"church":50,"people":63,"treasury":58},"blend":0.1893,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:35.484Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":62,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.55,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:35.682Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":62,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":250}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":39,"church":49,"people":62,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":2,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.98,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":250,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.51}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:37.470Z","v":3,"id":"b5720c62-5ee4-4d13-ac2f-10a64774973b","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.11644330669267622,"step":12,"trap":0.1,"want":0.82,"year":47,"after":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":56},"blend":0.35029999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:37.470Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":63,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.1,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.83,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.63,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:37.612Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":63,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+2","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":39,"church":50,"people":63,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.77,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.13,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:39.463Z","v":3,"id":"6064eca3-7889-4c09-9c9b-8e4537e53198","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.2161803935844384,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.51,"year":48,"after":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":64,"treasury":54},"blend":0.754,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:39.463Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.52,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:39.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":57,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":57,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":2.09,"people":2.46,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.84,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:41.471Z","v":3,"id":"b220a8b9-eb78-4f37-b9c9-d0ca226e60f3","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.589351622516983,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.88,"year":49,"after":{"army":32,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":45},"blend":0.3554,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:41.471Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":64,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.11,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.48,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.6,"1":0.4,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:41.617Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":64,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-3","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":34,"church":50,"people":64,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.36,"people":0.4,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":2.45,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:43.465Z","v":3,"id":"ac9bcd7a-7dd1-4e75-ae44-4549694720d9","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9763985092235288,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.01,"year":50,"after":{"army":33,"church":58,"people":81,"treasury":50},"blend":0.0161,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:43.465Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":77,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.18,"3":0.17,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.62,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:43.625Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":77,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":32,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.67,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.52},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.06,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:45.469Z","v":3,"id":"21e7b512-19f2-46cd-9350-63558fd328b8","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9424824260282729,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.02,"year":51,"after":{"army":36,"church":50,"people":85,"treasury":48},"blend":0.6178,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:45.469Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.53,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.07,"3":0.65,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.63,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.26,"3":0.47,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:45.624Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-8","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-3"},"Stand":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":33,"church":58,"people":81,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":2.59,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":1.27,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-8,"people":4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:47.466Z","v":3,"id":"1cecb327-bd19-40af-835c-173a8b726bbc","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.07410908969737195,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.69,"year":52,"after":{"army":34,"church":53,"people":91,"treasury":45},"blend":0.2691,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:47.466Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.47,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.45,"3":0.36,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.11,"2":0.09,"3":0.59,"4":0.09}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.39,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.78,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:47.663Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"+3"},"Hang him":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":36,"church":50,"people":85,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.18,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.73,"people":1.11,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:49.467Z","v":3,"id":"bca56d87-546a-4b63-bdc1-c10286690d1a","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7036526611131142,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.29,"year":53,"after":{"army":32,"church":47,"people":71,"treasury":53},"blend":0.717,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:49.467Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.51,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.79,"1":0.21,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.62,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.25,"3":0.69,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.06,"3":0.7,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:49.611Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":91,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-21","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 91: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":34,"church":53,"people":91,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.4,"people":0.21,"treasury":2.61},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.29,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-20,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-21,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:51.468Z","v":3,"id":"7beba92a-2b72-482d-9dcc-bca0fe85f747","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.6428500424586179,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.01,"year":54,"after":{"army":29,"church":45,"people":65,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6017,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:51.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":71,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.64,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:51.662Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":71,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":32,"church":47,"people":71,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.96,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.15},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.74,"people":1.38,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:53.489Z","v":3,"id":"eb34c962-e7ee-4c30-aa55-8e80414c6d54","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9106858938793831,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.21,"year":55,"after":{"army":31,"church":47,"people":72,"treasury":55},"blend":0.088,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:53.489Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.19,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.5,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.68,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.31,"3":0.66,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:53.691Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":65,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-16"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":224}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":29,"church":45,"people":65,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.71,"people":1.26,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.11,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":224,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:55.468Z","v":3,"id":"3dca4ef3-5e5f-4123-ab17-98fb3e68031e","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.40916325387238817,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.6,"year":56,"after":{"army":32,"church":49,"people":80,"treasury":54},"blend":0.24619999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:55.468Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":72,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.63,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.74,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.75,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.27,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.16,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.42,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:55.625Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":72,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-2"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:57.488Z","v":3,"id":"b9b27e51-ea72-4c8e-9956-a1b0a5eb9fff","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.45,"mock":false,"roll":0.42139874887073403,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.94,"year":57,"after":{"army":29,"church":46,"people":78,"treasury":49},"blend":0.6411,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:57.488Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.38,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.35,"2":0.47,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.42,"2":0.1,"3":0.35,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.65,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6,"2":0.16,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:57.678Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":57,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.45,"right":0.55}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":32,"church":49,"people":80,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.7,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":1.43,"church":1.58,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:32:59.471Z","v":3,"id":"2c2c12dc-6774-4e09-93fe-756594357c2e","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.09907211084451784,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.98,"year":58,"after":{"army":27,"church":44,"people":71,"treasury":43},"blend":0.492,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:59.471Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":78,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.8,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.18,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:32:59.680Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":58,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":29,"church":46,"people":78,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.76,"people":1.3,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":1.02,"church":2.08,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-12,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:01.493Z","v":3,"id":"c8e92e3d-202f-49eb-bf6f-4ceec91b22cb","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7593066059820275,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.8,"year":59,"after":{"army":28,"church":45,"people":76,"treasury":44},"blend":0.31810000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:01.493Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":59,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":71,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.76,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.73,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.66,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:01.656Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":59,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":71,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-14","church":"-10","people":"-15","treasury":"-18"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":27,"church":44,"people":71,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.83,"church":1.18,"people":0.74,"treasury":0.49},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.04,"people":2.32,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:03.475Z","v":3,"id":"5bf24b7e-7f77-4c01-882a-c736737aaf1f","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7458092744207778,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.02,"year":60,"after":{"army":31,"church":45,"people":83,"treasury":54},"blend":0.02,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:03.475Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":60,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":76,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.51,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.9,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.31,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.37,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.25,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:03.602Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":60,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":76,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"+9"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-11","church":"+8","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":28,"church":45,"people":76,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.64,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":1.91,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":126},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:05.492Z","v":3,"id":"97919a57-69b2-4a80-ae40-3c09044d9d90","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.19279614735496353,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.03,"year":61,"after":{"army":32,"church":36,"people":87,"treasury":47},"blend":0.10930000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:05.492Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":61,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.04,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.19,"2":0.28,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.3,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.14,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:05.675Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":61,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+11","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":31,"church":45,"people":83,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":2.88,"people":2.27,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.15,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":4,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":3,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:07.476Z","v":3,"id":"cfd005fe-c6bd-45e4-b33d-f63bda9697ba","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4030662666069973,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.82,"year":62,"after":{"army":29,"church":32,"people":77,"treasury":52},"blend":0.9298,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:07.476Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":62,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.57,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.09,"2":0.04,"3":0.75,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:07.640Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":62,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":32,"church":36,"people":87,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.62,"people":1.08,"treasury":2.33},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.17,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2737,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.63,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:09.478Z","v":3,"id":"14ca0f3f-8894-4b31-bd1a-502fb157b723","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.6122951259808074,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.15,"year":63,"after":{"army":32,"church":33,"people":83,"treasury":50},"blend":0.6136,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:09.478Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":63,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":77,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.52,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.42,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.11,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.14,"3":0.6,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:09.624Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":63,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":77,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":29,"church":32,"people":77,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.16,"church":1.99,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":1.44,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:11.475Z","v":3,"id":"fa9711c9-f3cb-4908-bb51-40352e61798c","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.7033435477026813,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.01,"year":64,"after":{"army":33,"church":35,"people":84,"treasury":52},"blend":0.5346,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:11.475Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":64,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.43,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.43,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.89,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:11.658Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":64,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":32,"church":33,"people":83,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.6,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.11,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:13.474Z","v":3,"id":"93ee46d3-44c3-48b9-a935-2004f92d62af","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.2433756696933025,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.11,"year":65,"after":{"army":25,"church":28,"people":69,"treasury":64},"blend":0.6529,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:13.474Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":65,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.57,"2":0.27,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.5,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.65,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.17,"3":0.73,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.84,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:13.675Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":65,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+9","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-9","church":"-8","people":"-16","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":33,"church":35,"people":84,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.33,"people":0.65,"treasury":2.9},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.14,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:15.478Z","v":3,"id":"bc6b6cd4-4be4-48b6-8fa0-22d41ece721f","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.43,"mock":false,"roll":0.01420563919454687,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.29,"year":66,"after":{"army":27,"church":27,"people":67,"treasury":57},"blend":0.37539999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:15.478Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":66,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.3,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.51,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.69,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.29,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":369},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:15.846Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":66,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":69,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+3"},"Take the pass":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":25,"church":28,"people":69,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.83,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":1.99,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":369},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.14}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:17.475Z","v":3,"id":"b70c6db6-ede2-4e2d-b745-f32ae069e8a8","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.6853658643578406,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.18,"year":67,"after":{"army":26,"church":25,"people":61,"treasury":60},"blend":0.6314000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:17.475Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":67,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":67,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.85,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.18,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.26,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.14,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.07,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.41,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:17.609Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":67,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":67,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-1","church":"+11","people":"+7","treasury":"-7"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":27,"church":27,"people":67,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":2.9,"people":2.56,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.74,"people":1.42,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":11,"people":7,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:19.477Z","v":3,"id":"9cbd1309-bc81-4c5e-bed4-3362811a615b","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3514784524103589,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.05,"year":68,"after":{"army":28,"church":27,"people":70,"treasury":61},"blend":0.025600000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:19.477Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":68,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":61,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.21,"3":0.74,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:19.629Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":68,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":61,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":256}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":26,"church":25,"people":61,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.54,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.11,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":256,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:21.494Z","v":3,"id":"9c92c86f-b69d-4e08-a88f-27746a58b31a","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6230034129457869,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.95,"year":69,"after":{"army":28,"church":29,"people":75,"treasury":63},"blend":0.3827,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:21.494Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":69,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":70,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.57,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.62,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:21.687Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":69,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":70,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":28,"church":27,"people":70,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.7,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.1,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:23.488Z","v":3,"id":"a0897d85-a141-41bb-8ba4-7e121eea21b5","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3212735153388411,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.59,"year":70,"after":{"army":30,"church":30,"people":79,"treasury":71},"blend":0.2423,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:23.488Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":70,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":75,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.75,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.82,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.38,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.86,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.34,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:23.702Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":70,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":75,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-10","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":28,"church":29,"people":75,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.62,"people":1.12,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.02,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:25.482Z","v":3,"id":"a89f7ef4-ea81-4767-9b1f-4ecffa15a1a6","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.2361025741311995,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.98,"year":71,"after":{"army":31,"church":31,"people":80,"treasury":74},"blend":0.98,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:25.482Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":71,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":79,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.77,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:25.610Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":71,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":79,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":30,"church":30,"people":79,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.02,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.17},"right":{"army":1.5,"church":1.79,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:27.480Z","v":3,"id":"c5958cd3-35aa-45d7-8f24-e1792d220095","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.45264686536269383,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.04,"year":72,"after":{"army":31,"church":27,"people":65,"treasury":78},"blend":0.015600000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:27.480Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":72,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.59,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.67,"4":0.07}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.41,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.61,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:27.634Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":72,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-16","treasury":"+3"},"Return it":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":31,"church":31,"people":80,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":2.22,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.62,"people":0.69,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-15,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-16,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:29.479Z","v":3,"id":"080c773d-ecea-4d11-9596-7b065e75f20a","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9530707283080022,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.15,"year":73,"after":{"army":25,"church":28,"people":66,"treasury":74},"blend":0.0707,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:29.479Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":73,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":65,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.14,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.85,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.67,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:29.653Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":73,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"people":65,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-7","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":31,"church":27,"people":65,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":1.18,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.82},"right":{"army":1.45,"church":1.98,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:31.477Z","v":3,"id":"46b3f5da-b207-4b1e-8e21-b28326da9d69","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3722927418166988,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.47,"year":74,"after":{"army":25,"church":30,"people":72,"treasury":81},"blend":0.18939999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:31.477Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":74,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":66,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.16,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.55,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.79,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.6,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.67,"1":0.33,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.51,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:31.648Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":74,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":66,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"-12","treasury":"-20"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":25,"church":28,"people":66,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.28,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.34},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.05,"people":2.38,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:33.490Z","v":3,"id":"2cca67cd-a40a-403b-98dd-93803217a75e","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.06549498274208032,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0,"year":75,"after":{"army":16,"church":28,"people":62,"treasury":70},"blend":0.6039,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:33.490Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":75,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.61,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.74,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:33.639Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":75,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":25,"church":30,"people":72,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.72,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.03,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:35.478Z","v":3,"id":"7cc23473-b2a6-4e60-99ba-f29eb67c2cbf","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7672730143657565,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.2,"year":76,"after":{"army":16,"church":28,"people":65,"treasury":75},"blend":0.07800000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:35.478Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":76,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.19,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.36,"2":0.43,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.41,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.36,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.65,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:35.690Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":76,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-21","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":16,"church":28,"people":62,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.22,"church":1.22,"people":0.5,"treasury":0.43},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.95,"people":2.17,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:37.491Z","v":3,"id":"c62d235c-2f34-42bd-996d-b532f0a45f75","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.45717139617957003,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.06,"year":77,"after":{"army":16,"church":38,"people":68,"treasury":69},"blend":0.0234,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:37.491Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":77,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.54,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.24,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.53,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.71,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:37.656Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":77,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-10","church":"-16","people":"-11","treasury":"+9"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+9","people":"+2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":16,"church":28,"people":65,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":0.65,"people":1.12,"treasury":2.71},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.73,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.45}},"tokens":2644,"applied":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":3,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-11,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:39.481Z","v":3,"id":"fa37a7bc-9bf1-4a3c-a302-f4c209127069","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Radulf V","wisdom":0.61},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.9800012463313863,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.11,"year":78,"after":{"army":0,"church":35,"people":58,"treasury":65},"blend":0.6468,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:39.481Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":78,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Radulf V, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.35,"2":0.51,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.37,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.32,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.26,"2":0.56,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.41,"2":0.16,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.26,"2":0.27,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:39.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":78,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 61% of the time.","description":"Radulf V suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-18","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fdbf6fee-697f-4564-bd9a-02699e813275","before":{"army":16,"church":38,"people":68,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.89,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":0.53,"church":1.63,"people":1.09,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":-17,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-18,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:41.482Z","v":3,"id":"e8a0874d-7d14-47e2-ad92-150b06d2db50","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3126988495130396,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.97,"year":1,"after":{"army":41,"church":60,"people":38,"treasury":33},"blend":0.5425,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:41.482Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.68,"2":0.09,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.67,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.04,"3":0.62,"4":0.16}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.85,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.34,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.5,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.45,"3":0.54,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:41.670Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"+7","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-10","church":"+9","people":"-13","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.72,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.51},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.57,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":10,"people":-12,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":9,"people":-13,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":7,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:43.488Z","v":3,"id":"fa064c03-2602-4ebc-99e7-03bca73a5d6b","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.0033892686008079043,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.05,"year":2,"after":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":32,"treasury":25},"blend":0.036500000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:43.488Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":38,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.57,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.59,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.57,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.33,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.73,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:43.624Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":38,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-7","treasury":"-9"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":41,"church":60,"people":38,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.37,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.51,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-7,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:45.500Z","v":3,"id":"10f1efcd-70dd-419c-96e4-f71ee344f1a0","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.42,"mock":false,"roll":0.951100306426166,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":30,"treasury":16},"blend":0.7390000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:45.500Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":32,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.28,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.03,"3":0.7,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.24,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.54,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.37,"2":0.24,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.6,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:45.701Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":32,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+10","people":"-8","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-15","people":"-3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":32,"treasury":25},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":2.81,"people":1.31,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":0.73,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-14,"people":-2,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":10,"people":-8,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-15,"people":-3,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.16}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:47.486Z","v":3,"id":"f7e40136-8fdd-482c-bb73-b330721284e4","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9100357421506464,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.14,"year":4,"after":{"army":35,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":17},"blend":0.07700000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:47.486Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.77,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.66,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.45,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.77,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.54,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.49,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:47.646Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":30,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-15"},"Decline":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":35,"church":39,"people":30,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":1.68,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.09,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:49.482Z","v":3,"id":"d589fed1-3040-4e48-9167-6cebe930bc4d","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4705197084415593,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":22,"treasury":9},"blend":0.55,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:49.482Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.04,"3":0.67,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.44,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.7,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.4,"3":0.35,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:49.693Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":35,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":17},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.5,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.2,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-11,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:51.500Z","v":3,"id":"fe1e580c-7a0d-49f4-bc63-b26aad5a398b","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.45},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.4227284177837114,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.01,"year":6,"after":{"army":32,"church":53,"people":20,"treasury":0},"blend":0.08650000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:51.500Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.61,"2":0.19,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.56,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.67,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.13,"3":0.6,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.3,"2":0.21,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.67,"1":0.31,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:51.681Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 45% of the time.","description":"Aldric II defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-8","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"-19"},"Send grain":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"-3","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":736,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2043bf11-ae2d-456d-86b9-31ffaa0d5353","before":{"army":33,"church":48,"people":22,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":0.87,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.38},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.33,"people":1.76,"treasury":0.75}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":-2,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":-3,"treasury":-15}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:53.484Z","v":3,"id":"fe251e88-5934-40f2-bfc8-2cafae6e3d1d","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.040774277104256296,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.64,"year":1,"after":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":40,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5284000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:53.484Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.76,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.77,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.55,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.64,"2":0.07,"3":0.14,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.65,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:53.619Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-8"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.67,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.02,"people":2.29,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:55.491Z","v":3,"id":"51a4b878-b43a-41a7-9c65-4c38bbf92180","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.05188644543604015,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.89,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":43,"people":29,"treasury":41},"blend":0.7316000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:55.491Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":40,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.27,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.25,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:55.652Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":40,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"+1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":41,"church":47,"people":40,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.56,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":2.42,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:57.503Z","v":3,"id":"08b7da1a-bee8-40f7-97a9-ca519c55f54b","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.1602906203780563,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.5,"year":3,"after":{"army":40,"church":39,"people":17,"treasury":38},"blend":0.4136,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:57.503Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":29,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.23,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.49,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:57.746Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":29,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-4"},"Meet them":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":43,"church":43,"people":29,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.62,"people":0.92,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.82,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:33:59.488Z","v":3,"id":"25d7c9c9-39e4-4155-bc92-d65c8adb8ddb","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9745530920281298,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.67,"year":4,"after":{"army":41,"church":39,"people":15,"treasury":38},"blend":0.5494000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:59.488Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.61,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.61,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.41,"2":0.46,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":138},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:33:59.626Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":210}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":40,"church":39,"people":17,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.51,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.88,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":210,"forecast":138},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:01.491Z","v":3,"id":"8de2a2b9-9e3d-4e50-9468-bd276cf7c8c8","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9627251802044274,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.5,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":45,"people":13,"treasury":39},"blend":0.41180000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:01.491Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.45,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.41,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:01.683Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"-3","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":41,"church":39,"people":15,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.25,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.38,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":-3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:03.506Z","v":3,"id":"705645f5-3e48-4918-b078-26a168bafc7b","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.4793955635701268,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.82,"year":6,"after":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":17,"treasury":40},"blend":0.8524,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:03.506Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.76,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.2,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.45,"2":0.21,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.67,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.07,"3":0.41,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.3,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:03.677Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-3","church":"+10","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":41,"church":45,"people":13,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.8,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.75,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":10,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:05.505Z","v":3,"id":"13c1d1da-fc5d-4ff1-aa17-831451af2c86","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.23993762658262852,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.75,"year":7,"after":{"army":35,"church":51,"people":8,"treasury":34},"blend":0.615,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:05.505Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.5,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.22,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:05.671Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":242}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":17,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.47,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.39},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.4,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2712,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":242,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:07.507Z","v":3,"id":"96df0fc0-49fc-4918-a887-964e49950791","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":0.18},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5798843892521985,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":46,"people":0,"treasury":42},"blend":0.8200000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:07.507Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea I, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.51,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.34,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.31,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.68,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.3,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.66,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":246},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:07.753Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea I","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Dorothea I will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+2","church":"-6","people":"-20","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d186660d-f3ab-4bae-81c2-04fa29c205ed","before":{"army":35,"church":51,"people":8,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.13,"church":1.53,"people":0.32,"treasury":2.62},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.87,"people":2.46,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":-19,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":246},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-6,"people":-20,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:09.496Z","v":3,"id":"cb985532-daca-46f5-b00b-c56e8df47228","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4746232817911564,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.81,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":48},"blend":0.4278,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:09.496Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.71,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.08,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:09.645Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"+4"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.91,"people":1.31,"treasury":2.33},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:11.507Z","v":3,"id":"aac32ba7-e970-42a6-baf0-9b78d13c788c","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5506393354242989,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":57,"treasury":50},"blend":0.5149,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:11.507Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.66,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.83,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.61,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:11.671Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.19,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.02,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:13.497Z","v":3,"id":"365f3626-3b37-4484-a774-2d67e7a2d51e","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.9141409543572427,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.3,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":51},"blend":0.1824,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:13.497Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":57,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.23,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.39,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:13.697Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":57,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:15.508Z","v":3,"id":"4b5fb7a0-5afe-4306-ba84-ebecb5c5958e","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.5620070589576878,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.97,"year":4,"after":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":63,"treasury":52},"blend":0.9503999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:15.508Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":64,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:15.708Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":64,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":64,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.94,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.99},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.93,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:17.492Z","v":3,"id":"b37158d9-3dc1-4b8b-8117-8500222fa675","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.026150272888911807,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.19,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":61,"people":56,"treasury":38},"blend":0.1116,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:17.492Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":63,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.63,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.7,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.49,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.75,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.33,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:17.640Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":63,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"-15"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":53,"church":61,"people":63,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.88,"people":1.34,"treasury":0.76},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.05,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:19.499Z","v":3,"id":"99bb192c-e562-48a6-9682-b2858f30aecb","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.7451719304911804,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":47,"church":61,"people":54,"treasury":36},"blend":0.9803999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:19.499Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":56,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.52,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:19.701Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":56,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":48,"church":61,"people":56,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.92,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":1.84,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:21.492Z","v":3,"id":"9d48b6fc-2dba-4f29-a9f1-53c6d38e34b7","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.44644329427701135,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.47,"year":7,"after":{"army":49,"church":62,"people":58,"treasury":44},"blend":0.24459999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:21.492Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":54,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.79,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.55,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.36,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.32,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:21.657Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":54,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-11","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-14"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":47,"church":61,"people":54,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.68,"people":1.06,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.01,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.55}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.07,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:23.492Z","v":3,"id":"669f1f70-f94b-4353-951c-27177180b1d1","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7460204895812215,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.9,"year":8,"after":{"army":49,"church":65,"people":64,"treasury":51},"blend":0.46390000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:23.492Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":58,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.22,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.77,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.77,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.48,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":344},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:23.836Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":58,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-7","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":49,"church":62,"people":58,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.06,"people":0.77,"treasury":0.89},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.19,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":344},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:25.492Z","v":3,"id":"79b60a92-557f-45af-9883-2f22f0979607","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6516480941266409,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.14,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":69,"people":75,"treasury":50},"blend":0.091,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:25.492Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":64,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.63,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.7,"2":0.21,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.56,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.71,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.02,"3":0.83,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:25.633Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":64,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-17","treasury":"+10"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":49,"church":65,"people":64,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":1.22,"people":0.6,"treasury":2.82},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.24,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-17,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:27.510Z","v":3,"id":"2ffe141a-1556-4554-bcb2-1681be83dec2","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.49228899469006215,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.09,"year":10,"after":{"army":52,"church":71,"people":82,"treasury":58},"blend":0.07039999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:27.510Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.51,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.88,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.34,"3":0.63,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:27.734Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":75,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":50,"church":69,"people":75,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.64,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2.12,"people":2.46,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:29.494Z","v":3,"id":"24ae1bf8-6c76-423c-a82e-afb97b2a16d5","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6348797652532923,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.9,"year":11,"after":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":53},"blend":0.9490000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:29.494Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.52,"2":0.19,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.57,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.66,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.15,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.08,"3":0.74,"4":0.08}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.4,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.88,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:29.645Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+9","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-22","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":52,"church":71,"people":82,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.25,"people":0.17,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.35,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-21,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-22,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:31.513Z","v":3,"id":"376af844-ada2-4969-ac18-1f2920f0e39b","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4056683459063146,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.38,"year":12,"after":{"army":48,"church":65,"people":67,"treasury":62},"blend":0.1987,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:31.513Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.38,"right":0.62}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.58,"2":0.17,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.82,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.86,"1":0.14,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:31.672Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-22"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":120}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.2,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.05,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":120,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:33.521Z","v":3,"id":"12982387-f18c-4f24-8113-bb253abc3982","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.016277522525759647,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":48,"church":58,"people":63,"treasury":60},"blend":0.5443,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:33.521Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":67,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.37,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:33.691Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":67,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-8","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":48,"church":65,"people":67,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.36,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.79},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.42,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-5,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:35.510Z","v":3,"id":"ebe6ce15-9a21-4365-aff2-51e3a3aac8c0","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5583211095603446,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.78,"year":14,"after":{"army":47,"church":60,"people":68,"treasury":61},"blend":0.39780000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:35.510Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":63,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.63,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.67,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9299999999999999,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:35.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":63,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-12","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-16"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":48,"church":58,"people":63,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.99,"church":1.36,"people":0.82,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.06,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:37.499Z","v":3,"id":"2c7fb17e-8a38-43a1-bb2c-9e95ccf60142","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.05057794144893579,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.06,"year":15,"after":{"army":39,"church":72,"people":61,"treasury":48},"blend":0.055099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:37.499Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":68,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.7,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.03,"3":0.79,"4":0.1}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.27,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.79,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.21,"3":0.72,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:37.676Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":68,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-9","church":"+11","people":"-8","treasury":"-14"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+2","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":47,"church":60,"people":68,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.91,"people":1.32,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.15,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":12,"people":-7,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":11,"people":-8,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":2,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:39.497Z","v":3,"id":"fbcadae1-d4a1-4bcb-ad2f-d69cad7c63e5","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7461103485508973,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.04,"year":16,"after":{"army":41,"church":74,"people":70,"treasury":49},"blend":0.025300000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:39.497Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":61,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.25,"3":0.69,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:39.697Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":61,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":39,"church":72,"people":61,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.3,"church":1.66,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:41.514Z","v":3,"id":"8f13465e-8038-4252-91c8-b59cbac1c9e0","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.32234536179540907,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.97,"year":17,"after":{"army":36,"church":74,"people":55,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5094,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:41.514Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.31,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.2,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.67,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.48,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.21,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:41.714Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":70,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-16","treasury":"-6"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+8","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":41,"church":74,"people":70,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.89,"people":0.68,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.23,"people":2.65,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:43.501Z","v":3,"id":"2cff8bca-95ea-43ec-8fa8-a795e778fa1e","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4224570401174532,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.24,"year":18,"after":{"army":37,"church":73,"people":57,"treasury":48},"blend":0.13219999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:43.501Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":55,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.15,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.43,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.57,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:43.654Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":55,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-5","church":"+3","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":36,"church":74,"people":55,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":2.27,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.04},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.87,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:45.499Z","v":3,"id":"66245263-a03e-4b5b-8bfa-274791e4428d","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8658246993963323,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.15,"year":19,"after":{"army":42,"church":77,"people":66,"treasury":51},"blend":0.0863,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:45.499Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":57,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.68,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.3,"3":0.6900000000000001,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.38,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:45.689Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":57,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+3","people":"+8","treasury":"+2"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-8","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":37,"church":73,"people":57,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":1.35,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.37,"church":2.28,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.15}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":5,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":4,"church":3,"people":8,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:47.503Z","v":3,"id":"16350267-3b38-4255-9d2a-bfc4447991b3","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.14625366271490758,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.98,"year":20,"after":{"army":27,"church":62,"people":49,"treasury":38},"blend":0.5194,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:47.503Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":66,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.64,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.45,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.45,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.39,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.79,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.64,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:47.631Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":42,"church":77,"people":66,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.7,"church":0.67,"people":0.46,"treasury":0.86},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.3,"people":2.53,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-15,"church":-15,"people":-17,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-16,"people":-18,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:49.501Z","v":3,"id":"453b07cf-c979-43e3-9784-2a29be2fcda1","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5661889799665687,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":21,"after":{"army":32,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":38},"blend":0.5098,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:49.501Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":49,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.23,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.48,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.23,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.52,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:49.641Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":49,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+4","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":27,"church":62,"people":49,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.83,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":2.36,"church":1.86,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:51.504Z","v":3,"id":"1786c313-4d0f-4b05-8782-c57fd3320cef","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.26768123406458666,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.01,"year":22,"after":{"army":29,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"blend":0.4804,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:51.504Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.75,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.59,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:51.637Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":49,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":32,"church":61,"people":49,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.96,"people":1.97,"treasury":2.19},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":1.74,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:53.507Z","v":3,"id":"e686b0c2-7d6b-406e-b6d1-178d847ba1ef","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.06667325152027503,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":21,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":38},"blend":0.5194,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:53.507Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.23,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:53.659Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-7"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-9","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":29,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":2.03,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":1.75,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:55.507Z","v":3,"id":"b75d9ddf-fe3d-49e9-bc3f-b5d79af42541","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.06434610762409076,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.13,"year":24,"after":{"army":16,"church":61,"people":39,"treasury":28},"blend":0.1202,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:55.507Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":46,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.65,"2":0.22,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.63,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.53,"2":0.18,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.35,"2":0.25,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:55.700Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":46,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":270}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":21,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.73,"people":1.32,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.25,"church":1.75,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":270,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:57.518Z","v":3,"id":"763a1884-1a1f-402f-b8bd-469f4268438c","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4680871324327238,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":25,"after":{"army":7,"church":58,"people":27,"treasury":25},"blend":0.5098,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:57.518Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.59,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.49,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.57,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.07,"2":0.13,"3":0.73,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.4,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:57.735Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-4"},"Meet them":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"+7","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":16,"church":61,"people":39,"treasury":28},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.69,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.54,"church":1.78,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":7,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:34:59.506Z","v":3,"id":"4f5e5514-076d-4a02-85fa-81ee8a98b1d9","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":0.49},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.2889231659257798,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.98,"year":26,"after":{"army":0,"church":54,"people":16,"treasury":15},"blend":0.9065,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:59.506Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Margarethe IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.59,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.37,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.27,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.63,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.14,"2":0.24,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.52,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.25,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:34:59.702Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Margarethe IV","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 49% of the time.","description":"Margarethe IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-10","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-17","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1da96c03-d29f-47ed-b0f9-6bfaccda6f0d","before":{"army":7,"church":58,"people":27,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.57,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":0.59,"church":1.98,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-17,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:01.515Z","v":3,"id":"4a45e65d-a97e-4dc7-8d92-a5eb65330431","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.3021920675803209,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":45,"church":51,"people":55,"treasury":38},"blend":0.57,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:01.515Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.39,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.46,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.1,"3":0.61,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.19,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.93,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:01.681Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":2.04,"people":2.37,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.8,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:03.511Z","v":3,"id":"5059fa1d-e90b-443b-a635-1c7b203bc1c7","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.14566743341076194,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.98,"year":2,"after":{"army":33,"church":49,"people":44,"treasury":23},"blend":0.4367999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:03.511Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":55,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.74,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.72,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.59,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:03.673Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":55,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-13","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":45,"church":51,"people":55,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.92,"church":1.74,"people":0.99,"treasury":0.68},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:05.513Z","v":3,"id":"2ca104cd-1718-4659-b4d2-687806bef349","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3355527212570171,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.89,"year":3,"after":{"army":23,"church":53,"people":29,"treasury":13},"blend":0.40279999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:05.513Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":44,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.47,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.59,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.06,"3":0.79,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.62,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.36,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:05.700Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":44,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"+3","people":"-16","treasury":"-11"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":33,"church":49,"people":44,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.27,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.14,"people":2.7,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":-16,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:07.506Z","v":3,"id":"8cdc6c09-9587-48b0-9176-dbc90f5d844c","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.024084384798478853,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.42,"year":4,"after":{"army":20,"church":47,"people":17,"treasury":9},"blend":0.6944,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:07.506Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.49,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.53,"2":0.35,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.75,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.26,"2":0.31,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.12,"2":0.04,"3":0.74,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.42,"2":0.34,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.6,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:07.650Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"+6","treasury":"-17"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":23,"church":53,"people":29,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.42,"people":0.91,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":1.78,"people":2.51,"treasury":0.61}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":6,"treasury":-17}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:09.506Z","v":3,"id":"40d7260e-4873-4601-bba4-e76918c6fcef","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.11177114365555885,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.91,"year":5,"after":{"army":16,"church":34,"people":6,"treasury":16},"blend":0.4564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:09.506Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.82,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.04,"3":0.65,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.42,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:09.662Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-5","church":"-14","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":795,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":20,"church":47,"people":17,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":0.85,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.5},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.61,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2741,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-14,"people":-12,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:11.520Z","v":3,"id":"b4447972-65aa-4d31-9003-104648a0d946","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5059189327085256,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":17,"church":35,"people":10,"treasury":22},"blend":0.43559999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:11.520Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":6,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.7,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.45,"2":0.35,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.65,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.72,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.6,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.38,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:11.665Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":6,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-11","church":"-10","people":"-15","treasury":"-19"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 6: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":810,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":16,"church":34,"people":6,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":1.15,"people":0.76,"treasury":0.4},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.96,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2776,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:13.513Z","v":3,"id":"c70e103f-4ab4-4f02-8574-16d9f443aa7d","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4126448578858153,"step":12,"trap":0.85,"want":0.73,"year":7,"after":{"army":21,"church":39,"people":16,"treasury":24},"blend":0.32119999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:13.513Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.85,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.75,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.47,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.39,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:13.680Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-11","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":17,"church":35,"people":10,"treasury":22},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.29,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":2.29,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":4,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-11,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":3,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:15.509Z","v":3,"id":"9de626e4-ba1b-4e8e-b046-7234e9717e18","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Aldric V","wisdom":0.56},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.12832853616174056,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.66,"year":8,"after":{"army":15,"church":26,"people":0,"treasury":33},"blend":0.2904,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:15.509Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.59,"2":0.27,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.69,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.54,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.75,"1":0.24,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.46,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.82,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.77,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:15.691Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric V","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 56% of the time.","description":"Aldric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-14","people":"-21","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":234}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"29d54073-2677-4fdf-831c-a57c8f544c47","before":{"army":21,"church":39,"people":16,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":0.87,"people":0.26,"treasury":2.69},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.25,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-13,"people":-20,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":234,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-14,"people":-21,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.32,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:17.510Z","v":3,"id":"444f9506-5123-43f8-862c-9324a77ceaf4","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.7943531706302591,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.19,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":52},"blend":0.3506,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:17.510Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.54,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.56,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.32,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.23,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:17.763Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-2"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28d00d11-8db3-41a5-bbd1-b80a160a7257","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":2.28,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.31,"people":0.93,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:19.518Z","v":3,"id":"5730317e-d56a-4d1a-b02b-b3ec70172101","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.08502528259303177,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.92,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":46,"treasury":50},"blend":0.9244,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:19.518Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:19.757Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28d00d11-8db3-41a5-bbd1-b80a160a7257","before":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":2.11,"people":2.62,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.72,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:21.531Z","v":3,"id":"2478ebf6-9eaa-4e4e-a02b-947775d8f686","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.656949933013014,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.85,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":38,"people":34,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6652,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:21.531Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.24,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.25,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.39,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.91,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:21.755Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"+1","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-5"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28d00d11-8db3-41a5-bbd1-b80a160a7257","before":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":46,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":1.35,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2.58,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:23.529Z","v":3,"id":"424fedf3-94d0-4c6c-aa1f-7c1052e67eba","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.006739163627847322,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":58,"church":31,"people":23,"treasury":36},"blend":0.7866000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:23.529Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":34,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.35,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.82,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.62,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.18,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.18,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:23.695Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":34,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+4","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28d00d11-8db3-41a5-bbd1-b80a160a7257","before":{"army":53,"church":38,"people":34,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.3,"church":1.32,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":0.99,"church":2.2,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.69}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:25.518Z","v":3,"id":"38606a36-aba3-4222-aaf3-2c26239270de","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.1501417091942996,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":59,"church":21,"people":9,"treasury":14},"blend":0.7744,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:25.518Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":23,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.39,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.52,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:25.671Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:27.513Z","v":3,"id":"2478a387-72f4-483a-8a50-fa2acf9b32e0","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.22},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5133664183048208,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0},"blend":0.78,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:27.513Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.63,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.49,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.52,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.19,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.92,"1":0.08,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:27.653Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 22% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-12","church":"-16","people":"-22","treasury":"-23"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28d00d11-8db3-41a5-bbd1-b80a160a7257","before":{"army":59,"church":21,"people":9,"treasury":14},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.97,"church":0.63,"people":0.2,"treasury":0.09},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":2.03,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-21,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-16,"people":-22,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:29.516Z","v":3,"id":"f66ea373-06ee-4a28-b527-16efb9aa42a2","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.27107977799024363,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":51},"blend":0.22949999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:29.516Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.43,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.56,"2":0.14,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.74,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.43,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:29.725Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-15","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+9","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.61,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.31,"people":2.71,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":10,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:31.527Z","v":3,"id":"af8bdef7-9bb4-4f84-9966-e6fd7ef0e3ae","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.6057356839121992,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":57,"people":63,"treasury":52},"blend":0.9683999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:31.527Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.73,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.83,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:31.692Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":51,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.19,"church":2.11,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.73,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:33.532Z","v":3,"id":"965e24d6-d768-48c3-b7a4-3cd09c30298a","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.27,"mock":false,"roll":0.7507225416396799,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":0.41,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":73,"treasury":46},"blend":0.2994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:33.532Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":63,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.59,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.98,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.18,"3":0.78,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:33.703Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":54,"church":57,"people":63,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.74,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.92},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":2.02,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.19,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:35.519Z","v":3,"id":"a4885283-70c2-4594-b73e-763713d6019a","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7599341393015691,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.06,"year":4,"after":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":47},"blend":0.028399999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:35.519Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":73,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.8,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.75,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:35.716Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":73,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+2","church":"+4","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":51,"church":58,"people":73,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.52,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.36},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":2.35,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2646,"applied":{"army":3,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:37.519Z","v":3,"id":"52b05f69-e848-49a3-9a72-f537258148bc","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.0748305402453886,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.96,"year":5,"after":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":48},"blend":0.9679,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:37.519Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":270},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:37.789Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.95,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.96,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":270},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:39.514Z","v":3,"id":"4a6f0bfd-4ff4-494d-aa9a-e3b38b4024b8","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.3233453647221207,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":53,"church":63,"people":75,"treasury":47},"blend":0.9842,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:39.514Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":260},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:39.774Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":54,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.93,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.8,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":260},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:41.519Z","v":3,"id":"4c1ce8a0-5c38-44f3-ae52-903e23cc5480","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.09271065440607207,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":42,"church":53,"people":63,"treasury":35},"blend":0.23369999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:41.519Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":75,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.83,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.73,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.85,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.62,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:41.666Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":75,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":53,"church":63,"people":75,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.08,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.13,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:43.524Z","v":3,"id":"dcf76468-93e2-4b20-b518-545d542dddfe","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.07145849951139183,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.97,"year":8,"after":{"army":35,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":32},"blend":0.27479999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:43.524Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":63,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.29,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.45,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:43.747Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":63,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"+1","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":42,"church":53,"people":63,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2.05,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.86,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:45.516Z","v":3,"id":"49482ac0-37d0-4830-90f9-8e07dfe09703","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.49948352304429045,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":34,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":31},"blend":0.20789999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:45.516Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.86,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":239},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:45.755Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":35,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.92,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.95,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":239},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:47.519Z","v":3,"id":"f10410d7-f3f3-4f51-8e6e-c11b43aca21b","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4670853736022502,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":40,"church":53,"people":59,"treasury":30},"blend":0.21579999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:47.519Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.2,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.5,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.24,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.57,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:47.751Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":60,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":34,"church":55,"people":60,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.74,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":2.39,"church":1.75,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":5,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:49.516Z","v":3,"id":"efe4da5b-fbbe-49b7-94dd-13121d38f4aa","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.8283514810066013,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.88,"year":11,"after":{"army":37,"church":59,"people":71,"treasury":19},"blend":0.3586,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:49.516Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":59,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.57,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.32,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.81,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.29,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.03,"3":0.88,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.98,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":123},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:49.640Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":59,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":40,"church":53,"people":59,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.4,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":2.42,"people":2.89,"treasury":1}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":123},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:51.520Z","v":3,"id":"055f897e-9b96-4721-847c-0229f4b09c0a","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.9068616981175586,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.18,"year":12,"after":{"army":30,"church":53,"people":59,"treasury":20},"blend":0.8040999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:51.520Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.52,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.45,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.04,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.35,"2":0.11,"3":0.48,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:51.705Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+3","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":37,"church":59,"people":71,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.21,"church":1.98,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.41,"people":0.93,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:53.521Z","v":3,"id":"3ff590b3-ec78-4c70-9f85-5738238741db","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8398052355544707,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.96,"year":13,"after":{"army":30,"church":57,"people":66,"treasury":20},"blend":0.20159999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:53.521Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.73,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.49,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.41,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.58,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.38,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.56,"1":0.42,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.5,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:53.719Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":59,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-14","church":"-15","people":"-19","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":760,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":30,"church":53,"people":59,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.86,"church":0.72,"people":0.42,"treasury":0.47},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.26,"people":2.53,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-15,"people":-19,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:55.532Z","v":3,"id":"3123e654-3b52-412e-ba21-adafcccea500","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.060715102296786005,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.98,"year":14,"after":{"army":24,"church":51,"people":56,"treasury":1},"blend":0.20579999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:55.532Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.61,"2":0.17,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.36,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.69,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.21,"2":0.46,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.34,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.2,"2":0.24,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:55.697Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-20"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":30,"church":57,"people":66,"treasury":20},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.44,"people":1.07,"treasury":0.35},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.62,"people":1.73,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-19},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:57.537Z","v":3,"id":"9b7e92e1-fb1b-4d45-bbde-9a253958cc94","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5726986284907098,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":24,"church":56,"people":57,"treasury":0},"blend":0.23369999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:57.537Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide I, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.34,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.21,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:57.731Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":56,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Frideswide I suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"-4"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-7","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"42f8c9d4-1d78-4e17-a968-30c2864717e6","before":{"army":24,"church":51,"people":56,"treasury":1},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.4,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.33,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:35:59.523Z","v":3,"id":"058b3739-6cf4-4167-bde3-5a0ea864d470","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.4917531622726574,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.68,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":48},"blend":0.8656,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:59.523Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.68,"right":0.32}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.68,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.41,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.13,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.13,"3":0.64,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:35:59.709Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.02,"church":2.09,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":1.38,"church":1.75,"people":1,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:01.523Z","v":3,"id":"2827046d-4be3-4a18-bce4-a8b0d886b1c2","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.3891495067616222,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.58,"year":2,"after":{"army":57,"church":49,"people":50,"treasury":44},"blend":0.3496,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:01.523Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.23,"3":0.58,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.53,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.48,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.38,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:01.708Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":51,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.01,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":2.43,"church":1.68,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":6,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":5,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:03.537Z","v":3,"id":"bf52e0ec-dde3-49a0-9c3a-8699e3699e32","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.8509038424383488,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":60,"treasury":43},"blend":0.4048,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:03.537Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.02,"3":0.64,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.16,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":351},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:03.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":57,"church":49,"people":50,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":2.69,"people":0.89,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.21,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":351},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":8,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:05.537Z","v":3,"id":"c6de0bcb-cbb9-45df-91b6-af6fbe10c125","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3709768449208939,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.35,"year":4,"after":{"army":59,"church":46,"people":61,"treasury":45},"blend":0.1516,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:05.537Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.26,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.49,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:05.714Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":60,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.7,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.3,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:07.528Z","v":3,"id":"32df9465-872a-4a28-b662-b7085cc746db","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.4782324348252527,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.66,"year":5,"after":{"army":60,"church":46,"people":58,"treasury":52},"blend":0.3784,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:07.528Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.25,"3":0.51,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.07,"3":0.68,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.44,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.27,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.49,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:07.667Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-6","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":59,"church":46,"people":61,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.32,"people":2.54,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.91,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.32,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:09.523Z","v":3,"id":"7a0c92ac-361b-4498-bb59-f2ccafe7c105","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.006747859150084468,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.04,"year":6,"after":{"army":55,"church":41,"people":46,"treasury":52},"blend":0.027200000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:09.523Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.44,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.19,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.82,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.62,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.16,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.47,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:09.701Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":58,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":60,"church":46,"people":58,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.53,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.18,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:11.541Z","v":3,"id":"1acbd276-f832-461d-940b-c6b67636b2b7","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6167163728794711,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":52,"church":31,"people":55,"treasury":48},"blend":0.392,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:11.541Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.39,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.84,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.06,"3":0.75,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.62,"2":0.25,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.31,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:11.733Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":46,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":55,"church":41,"people":46,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":2.31,"people":0.8,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.1,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.59}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:13.540Z","v":3,"id":"b2b349ec-327f-4501-ba34-f96bcbb59d22","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.33042607121323964,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":45,"treasury":33},"blend":0.4112,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:13.540Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":55,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.76,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.52,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":3.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.02,"3":0.69,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.81,"2":0.05,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.29,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.69,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.24,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:13.716Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":55,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-9","church":"+12","people":"-11","treasury":"-16"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"0","church":"-11","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":723,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":52,"church":31,"people":55,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":3.03,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.06,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":13,"people":-10,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":12,"people":-11,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:15.539Z","v":3,"id":"7319785f-22bb-4fd6-a92d-3ceb4097cd89","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.3641870712397963,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":24,"church":53,"people":36,"treasury":41},"blend":0.3984,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:15.539Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":45,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.21,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.34,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.14,"2":0.03,"3":0.63,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.62,"2":0.11,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.15,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.42,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.12,"3":0.71,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.56,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:15.709Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":722,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":44,"church":44,"people":45,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.28,"church":2.66,"people":1.18,"treasury":2.62},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":1.25,"people":2.3,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":8,"people":-10,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:17.527Z","v":3,"id":"60010baa-c0ee-48af-af6b-fed17b2aec7b","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.08135105552895716,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":15,"church":65,"people":24,"treasury":26},"blend":0.3792,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:17.527Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":36,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.17,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.65,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.56,"4":0.28}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.13,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.17,"3":0.69,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.23,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:17.679Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":36,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-10","church":"+11","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":24,"church":53,"people":36,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.95,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.27,"people":2.62,"treasury":2.45}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":12,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":11,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:19.523Z","v":3,"id":"f007890f-5233-4fb1-bda3-5b3d9999cde4","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.8608219128632781,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":10,"church":76,"people":29,"treasury":16},"blend":0.9616,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:19.523Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.04,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.24,"3":0.5700000000000001,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.6,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:19.669Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":15,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":26},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-6","church":"+10","people":"+4","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-7","church":"-13","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":226}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":15,"church":65,"people":24,"treasury":26},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.86,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":0.95,"people":1.36,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":226,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-13,"people":-8,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:21.523Z","v":3,"id":"53411a69-1ca0-4a96-822a-fb2e168319a2","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Aldric I","wisdom":0.64},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.00938651474095975,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.34,"year":12,"after":{"army":0,"church":67,"people":15,"treasury":0},"blend":0.12240000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:21.523Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Aldric I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.44,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.5,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.33,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.56,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.11,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.21,"2":0.32,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.18,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.35,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":325},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:21.849Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":29,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 64% of the time.","description":"Aldric I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-16","church":"-10","people":"-15","treasury":"-22"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fd79cfd-b883-446a-a857-b42ebf154903","before":{"army":10,"church":76,"people":29,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.65,"church":1.14,"people":0.71,"treasury":0.2},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":1.98,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":-15,"church":-9,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":325},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.33,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:23.543Z","v":3,"id":"17fce26a-632b-4ef7-8573-867111c9ab2d","card":{"i":94,"tag":"any","left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord","message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","speaker":"The Farmer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.6111604398572508,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.04,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":58},"blend":0.5356,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:23.543Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enforce the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Side with the lord\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.66,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.91,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.17,"3":0.65,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":329},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:23.871Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enforce the law":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+12","treasury":"-8"},"Side with the lord":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The lord takes half our harvest. The law says a third. The lord says the law is old.","options":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"speaker":"The Farmer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Enforce the law","right":"Side with the lord"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.08,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.61,"people":0.92,"treasury":2.55}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":329},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:25.540Z","v":3,"id":"e4ffe3d4-54ac-4d7f-9898-20e3ac7c6e11","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.21,"mock":false,"roll":0.5862081844683962,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.9,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":37,"people":50,"treasury":56},"blend":0.4929,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:25.540Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":38,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.05,"3":0.69,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.19,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:25.713Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}}}},"latencyMs":227}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":50,"church":46,"people":38,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.48,"people":0.83,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.19,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":227,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":-14,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":11,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.79,"prudenceConfidence":0.58}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:27.527Z","v":3,"id":"1b0a63cb-ce32-49be-aa2e-26d58dcc36b5","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.4652875054047032,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.44,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":51,"treasury":56},"blend":0.7585999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:27.527Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":50,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.64,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.54,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.49,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:27.664Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":50,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-7"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":51,"church":37,"people":50,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.98,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.79,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:29.530Z","v":3,"id":"15e344be-3158-41be-b43c-a13a511014ec","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.9684354173509397,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":53,"church":39,"people":52,"treasury":51},"blend":0.44720000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:29.530Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":51,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.04,"3":0.75,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:29.705Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":51,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+9"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":215}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":51,"church":38,"people":51,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.81,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.74},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.97,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":215,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:31.527Z","v":3,"id":"682c6784-9d48-4d0c-afe4-6592e5e479b9","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.3565738032309378,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.81,"year":5,"after":{"army":43,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":55},"blend":0.37340000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:31.527Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.9,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.36,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.5,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.32,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:31.684Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":53,"church":39,"people":52,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.96,"people":1.57,"treasury":2.25},"right":{"army":2.87,"church":1.98,"people":2.33,"treasury":1.18}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:33.522Z","v":3,"id":"8782f12b-c832-4ddc-97e7-7a68fb0e70ef","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.3734095037009142,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":44,"church":28,"people":38,"treasury":70},"blend":0.47490000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:33.522Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":48,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.72,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.89,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.21,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.34,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.74,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:33.695Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":48,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"0","church":"-13","people":"-11","treasury":"+14"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":43,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":0.91,"people":1.11,"treasury":3.2},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.7,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-12,"people":-10,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:35.522Z","v":3,"id":"5f8ad4ff-ca7e-4e36-aa87-ee92586eadcd","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5156913403697214,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":45,"church":29,"people":48,"treasury":63},"blend":0.42950000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:35.522Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":38,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.65,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.81,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.04,"3":0.57,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:35.651Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"people":38,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":44,"church":28,"people":38,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.62,"people":0.95,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.33}},"tokens":2631,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:37.545Z","v":3,"id":"81f09321-a881-47e8-8a61-6b6f56e2f4bf","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6290522192619503,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.98,"year":8,"after":{"army":54,"church":29,"people":46,"treasury":62},"blend":0.4313,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:37.545Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.33,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.42,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.16,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:37.720Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":45,"church":29,"people":48,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.76,"people":1.77,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":2.65,"church":1.91,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.8}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":9,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:39.535Z","v":3,"id":"e4f553bb-d0b1-482f-b226-9a61d048deef","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.670256323457922,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":58,"church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"blend":0.4277,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:39.535Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":46,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.63,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.6,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.65,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.18,"4":0.8}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:39.705Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":54,"church":29,"people":46,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":0.66,"people":0.72,"treasury":3.75},"right":{"army":2.23,"church":2.59,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":4,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-15,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:41.525Z","v":3,"id":"20887cd3-ecfd-4d9a-87b3-25c60a85a3c4","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7205271361891186,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.71,"year":10,"after":{"army":55,"church":36,"people":52,"treasury":53},"blend":0.29700000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:41.525Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.69,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.73,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:41.711Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-8","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":247}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":58,"church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.35,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.82,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":247,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.43,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:43.547Z","v":3,"id":"1b53674b-d97e-4306-917f-d326d560701b","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6537139065192064,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.43,"year":11,"after":{"army":56,"church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"blend":0.18810000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:43.547Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.56,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:43.756Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":55,"church":36,"people":52,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.91,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2579,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.13,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:45.544Z","v":3,"id":"59930287-ac0d-47bc-a9e1-91a23cb924be","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5885229751088632,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":56,"church":40,"people":65,"treasury":49},"blend":0.4277,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:45.544Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.62,"2":0.26,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.67,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.6,"2":0.27,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.54,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.7,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:45.727Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-17","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":56,"church":37,"people":53,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.35,"people":0.55,"treasury":3.13},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.18,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:47.568Z","v":3,"id":"060deae3-693f-4db6-a730-393ed535a9ea","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.7059207583217504,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.81,"year":13,"after":{"army":55,"church":42,"people":77,"treasury":41},"blend":0.38520000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:47.568Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:47.815Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-9"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":56,"church":40,"people":65,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.73,"people":1.04,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.12,"people":2.93,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:49.536Z","v":3,"id":"5cdc1e69-2d7e-4363-ba70-31fe1bf8536f","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.8490701891768195,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.23,"year":14,"after":{"army":53,"church":42,"people":76,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5781,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:49.536Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":77,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.42,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.86,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.53,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:49.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":77,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":55,"church":42,"people":77,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":1.99,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.88,"people":1.81,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:51.549Z","v":3,"id":"0e892c8d-8455-4ac8-abcd-95f8c2fce665","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6743063635457369,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.95,"year":15,"after":{"army":54,"church":44,"people":80,"treasury":50},"blend":0.4072,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:51.549Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":76,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.68,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.19,"3":0.4,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:51.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":76,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":53,"church":42,"people":76,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":1.81,"people":1.63,"treasury":2.25},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.05,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:53.542Z","v":3,"id":"57f389d1-0cf2-42c4-9b4f-d20e34fdebdb","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.24893191944605175,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":62},"blend":0.9941,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:53.542Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.59,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.75,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.36,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.73,"4":0.17}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:53.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-17","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":54,"church":44,"people":80,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.11,"church":1.72,"people":0.6,"treasury":2.93},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":2.01,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-16,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-17,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:55.554Z","v":3,"id":"9cec59e2-b653-47ca-9d0b-ab7157e527b8","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.4813924916554082,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.4,"year":17,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":73,"treasury":67},"blend":0.20530000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:55.554Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":64,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.51,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.84,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.36,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:55.749Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":64,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.15,"church":1.88,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.07,"church":2.04,"people":2.69,"treasury":2.31}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:57.553Z","v":3,"id":"0a433e04-0d5a-4738-973a-9c91be24972a","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.7768697153774446,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.48,"year":18,"after":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":79,"treasury":68},"blend":0.2204,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:57.553Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":73,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.69,"2":0.09,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:57.716Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":73,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.72,"people":1.14,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.04,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:36:59.536Z","v":3,"id":"c07b4383-c3d1-4f1d-9c46-acafa155b25a","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.500506668346222,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.76,"year":19,"after":{"army":49,"church":46,"people":85,"treasury":68},"blend":0.32930000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:59.536Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":79,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:36:59.703Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":79,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-3"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":48,"church":44,"people":79,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.73,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.07,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:01.543Z","v":3,"id":"04bc3959-f23d-4298-a3c0-4c0289dafc53","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.64,"mock":false,"roll":0.8139167533320308,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.26,"year":20,"after":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":83,"treasury":68},"blend":0.4842,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:01.543Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.66,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.49,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.07,"3":0.81,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.4,"2":0.21,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.52,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":305},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:01.847Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+2","church":"-9","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":49,"church":46,"people":85,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.17,"church":1.25,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.1,"church":2.74,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":305},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.27}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:03.552Z","v":3,"id":"50fdf9b5-cdaf-4e6e-92d3-34834f0fe6cd","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.3559629970070637,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.98,"year":21,"after":{"army":35,"church":48,"people":66,"treasury":72},"blend":0.9918,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:03.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.55,"2":0.23,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.51,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.27,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.27,"2":0.07,"3":0.56,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.49,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:03.712Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-18","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":83,"treasury":68},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":1.23,"people":0.54,"treasury":2.27},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.02,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-17,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-18,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:05.556Z","v":3,"id":"d4f508bf-ef9a-438b-9bef-5c9b34034116","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7855959247684159,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.59,"year":22,"after":{"army":35,"church":48,"people":77,"treasury":70},"blend":0.2537,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:05.556Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":66,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.93,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.14,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:05.709Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":66,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":35,"church":48,"people":66,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.59,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.93,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:07.539Z","v":3,"id":"3c20ef54-a33c-4213-b283-579bde8d95ae","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.13945397062295828,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.9,"year":23,"after":{"army":24,"church":35,"people":62,"treasury":65},"blend":0.37490000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:07.539Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":77,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.64,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.68,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.68,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.35,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.07,"3":0.19,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:07.690Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":77,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-14","people":"-16","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":35,"church":48,"people":77,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":0.84,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.23,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-13,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-14,"people":-16,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:09.541Z","v":3,"id":"6b1b11a7-b74e-45ea-a5f2-8fff5b74d4ef","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.85,"mock":false,"roll":0.8656953830246921,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.01,"year":24,"after":{"army":24,"church":33,"people":51,"treasury":74},"blend":0.5055999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:09.541Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":62,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.7,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.56,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.9299999999999999,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.44,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.31,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.22,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:09.748Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":62,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+8"},"Return it":{"army":"-2","church":"+3","people":"+12","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":24,"church":35,"people":62,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":2.22,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.41},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.76,"people":1,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.71}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:11.539Z","v":3,"id":"515e84b6-13f7-469f-8abf-1ce5de4b3af2","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.09600328223066779,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.75,"year":25,"after":{"army":22,"church":26,"people":38,"treasury":75},"blend":0.33699999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:11.539Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":51,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.75,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.46,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.35,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:11.709Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":51,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":24,"church":33,"people":51,"treasury":74},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.37,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.38,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:13.562Z","v":3,"id":"c40a63d0-e52d-461f-a8c7-d8ce5f803ac4","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.65,"mock":false,"roll":0.0436393982491603,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.48,"year":26,"after":{"army":19,"church":25,"people":33,"treasury":68},"blend":0.5803,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:13.562Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":38,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.48,"right":0.52}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.23,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.36,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.55,"2":0.15,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.29,"2":0.22,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":271},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:13.833Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":38,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-9","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"0"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}}}},"latencyMs":256}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":22,"church":26,"people":38,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.81,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.28,"church":1.7,"people":1.55,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":256,"forecast":271},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:15.538Z","v":3,"id":"ef25d53f-30d5-4469-b8c9-4bfa5cafc630","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7218687140633822,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.83,"year":27,"after":{"army":19,"church":24,"people":36,"treasury":68},"blend":0.3403,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:15.538Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.13,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.65,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:15.755Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-7","church":"+4","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":19,"church":25,"people":33,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":2.31,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.83,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:17.553Z","v":3,"id":"b1efbf88-fdc6-49d4-86e8-bca999647e2c","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8128089178134688,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":28,"after":{"army":19,"church":23,"people":43,"treasury":65},"blend":0.41000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:17.553Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.58,"1":0.37,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.55,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.45,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.23,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.96}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.25,"2":0.51,"3":0.11,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:17.711Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-18","church":"-3","people":"-18","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":19,"church":24,"people":36,"treasury":68},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.51,"church":1.72,"people":0.48,"treasury":3.9},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.87,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.68}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-3,"people":-18,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:19.542Z","v":3,"id":"efb79c40-cecd-48b9-b796-a7d70a586cdb","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7622466888186679,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.54,"year":29,"after":{"army":20,"church":25,"people":50,"treasury":72},"blend":0.22140000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:19.542Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":43,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.67,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.26,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:19.711Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":43,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-11","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":19,"church":23,"people":43,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.62,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.11,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.08,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:21.560Z","v":3,"id":"7a81fdb3-f43c-4e0b-8cb2-1abb82f02b9d","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.30112390133009015,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":33,"treasury":85},"blend":0.41590000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:21.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.36,"2":0.44,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.39,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.46,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.18,"3":0.81,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.7,"4":0.19}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:21.708Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-18","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":20,"church":25,"people":50,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.48,"people":0.47,"treasury":2.97},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":2.22,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-17,"treasury":13},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-18,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:23.543Z","v":3,"id":"3f9c1492-b42e-4f9e-aa9e-91b461029e39","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.924655364132577,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.93,"year":31,"after":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":36,"treasury":86},"blend":0.9536,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:23.543Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1970,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.59,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.42,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.27,"2":0.04,"3":0.45,"4":0.08}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.21,"2":0.08,"3":0.6,"4":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:23.698Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-9","church":"-9","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":814,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":33,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.91,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.28,"church":1.24,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2784,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:25.560Z","v":3,"id":"cb7f5552-64f2-4318-a735-6dc9e5fd476b","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5976518659729555,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.83,"year":32,"after":{"army":20,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":85},"blend":0.3403,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:25.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":86},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1973,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.21,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.23,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.95,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":279},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:25.839Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":36,"treasury":86},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-1"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+3","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":809,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":16,"church":20,"people":36,"treasury":86},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.3,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":2.24,"church":2.45,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.81}},"tokens":2782,"applied":{"army":4,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":279},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":3,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:27.541Z","v":3,"id":"0e5e8e4a-6a23-437b-a00c-442aaf186076","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.5055175969030425,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.86,"year":33,"after":{"army":17,"church":29,"people":61,"treasury":75},"blend":0.388,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:27.541Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.57,"2":0.1,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.45,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.75,"1":0.25,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.63,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.9,"4":0.06}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.33,"3":0.29,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:27.763Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-21","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":782,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":20,"church":26,"people":48,"treasury":85},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.39,"people":0.26,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":2.19,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2728,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-21,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:29.542Z","v":3,"id":"22bf54ab-25f6-4b3c-9798-fae99ebe5607","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5920645659928738,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.51,"year":34,"after":{"army":17,"church":19,"people":65,"treasury":72},"blend":0.215,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:29.542Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.34,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.42,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.82,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.21,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:29.745Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-4","church":"+11","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":17,"church":29,"people":61,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.89,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.09,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:31.558Z","v":3,"id":"6a18a726-72ac-4f7a-a42d-63e91d5163b8","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.11057711146498916,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.84,"year":35,"after":{"army":10,"church":14,"people":61,"treasury":73},"blend":0.35030000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:31.558Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1971,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.38,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.56,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.6,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.69,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:31.717Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":65,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-5","treasury":"0"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":17,"church":19,"people":65,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.48,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.78,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2762,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:33.562Z","v":3,"id":"adc01ce0-0e88-47e5-8b1b-ea2ae39c9475","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6818560535631992,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.14,"year":36,"after":{"army":10,"church":22,"people":63,"treasury":76},"blend":0.06330000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:33.562Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1951,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.14,"right":0.86}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.57,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.09,"3":0.63,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.22,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.73,"2":0.14,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.75,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:33.717Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":14,"danger":["church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":61,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-14","church":"+6","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":10,"church":14,"people":61,"treasury":73},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.82,"church":2.48,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.55,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2731,"applied":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":6,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:35.560Z","v":3,"id":"5e828bd2-1463-4ad7-acfb-8af55813dcbb","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.8193588717859925,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.54,"year":37,"after":{"army":7,"church":22,"people":63,"treasury":76},"blend":0.8055,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:35.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.08,"probabilities":{"left":0.54,"right":0.46}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:35.801Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":241}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":10,"church":22,"people":63,"treasury":76},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.92,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.93,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":241,"forecast":241},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.08,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:37.560Z","v":3,"id":"8c95a81d-8c23-4bcb-a5ff-909d9108f9ad","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.6251679506469872,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.87,"year":38,"after":{"army":5,"church":33,"people":71,"treasury":77},"blend":0.8936000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:37.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.3,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.09,"3":0.78,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.17,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.26,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.09,"3":0.42,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.3,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:37.697Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-3","church":"+10","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":7,"church":22,"people":63,"treasury":76},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2.81,"people":2.55,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.79,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:39.549Z","v":3,"id":"9c54a13f-6b04-4983-ab16-e84e9717dd12","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.701905937157123,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.79,"year":39,"after":{"army":5,"church":34,"people":77,"treasury":78},"blend":0.3239,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:39.549Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.55,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.79,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.42,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.35,"2":0.46,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.66,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:39.750Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":5,"church":33,"people":71,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.62,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.03,"people":2.45,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2665,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:41.548Z","v":3,"id":"35da99e2-fe69-41ad-b757-ee01fdbbd993","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3947849826285159,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.72,"year":40,"after":{"army":6,"church":24,"people":83,"treasury":84},"blend":0.2952,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:41.548Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.61,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.68,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.23,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.79,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.35,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.6,"2":0.03,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.38,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:41.728Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-9","treasury":"-14"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"0","church":"-11","people":"+5","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":5,"church":34,"people":77,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":2.74,"people":1.27,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.11,"people":2.42,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-10,"people":6,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":5,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.44,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:43.564Z","v":3,"id":"ebd9cc40-5755-452c-a38b-ce86c27e191c","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.7,"mock":false,"roll":0.3213899754451657,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.67,"year":41,"after":{"army":0,"church":13,"people":67,"treasury":84},"blend":0.6877,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:43.564Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Dorothea II, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1962,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.47,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.68,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.56,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.41,"2":0.1,"3":0.33,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:43.748Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Dorothea II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Dorothea II will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-7","church":"-12","people":"-17","treasury":"-1"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":806,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c922e9d0-ddb2-474a-af39-8ebf41ae5ad5","before":{"army":6,"church":24,"people":83,"treasury":84},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1,"people":0.61,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.22,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2768,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":-16,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-12,"people":-17,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:45.566Z","v":3,"id":"0aba59a5-b52b-4565-a8a7-ca9f086e4ea2","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.8127963213341807,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.93,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":61,"treasury":45},"blend":0.7923,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:45.566Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.59,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.31,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.49,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:45.820Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-16","treasury":"-1"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":2.4,"people":0.63,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.32,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-16,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:47.544Z","v":3,"id":"57953b76-7999-44d3-8aae-45232d44e6e4","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8596035297761475,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.29,"year":2,"after":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":57,"treasury":40},"blend":0.4073,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:47.544Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1873,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:47.754Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":61,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":679,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":61,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":2.02,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.88,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2552,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:49.552Z","v":3,"id":"c77af527-8c02-45b8-9da9-438176b5b9bd","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.40113382538609366,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":31,"people":47,"treasury":56},"blend":0.847,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:49.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1887,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.62,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.24,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.42,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.64,"4":0.33}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":130},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:49.682Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-11","treasury":"+15"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":51,"church":43,"people":57,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":0.89,"people":1.11,"treasury":3.27},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.74,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2579,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":-10,"treasury":16},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":130},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:51.562Z","v":3,"id":"1db7914e-d870-4a5e-ad19-775b610e7425","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7751628741662093,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.92,"year":4,"after":{"army":50,"church":31,"people":47,"treasury":60},"blend":0.9319,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:51.562Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":47,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.41000000000000003,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.38,"2":0.11,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.81,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.15,"3":0.51,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:51.722Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":47,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":51,"church":31,"people":47,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.91,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.22},"right":{"army":1.48,"church":1.6,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:53.563Z","v":3,"id":"973d23ba-f072-4d43-a025-31ae7e199e0f","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.498774155709496,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.38,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":32,"people":47,"treasury":64},"blend":0.3171,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:53.563Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":47,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"left":0.38,"right":0.62}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.54,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.58,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:53.700Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":47,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":50,"church":31,"people":47,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.83,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.97,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.24,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:55.559Z","v":3,"id":"1509501e-cb07-484f-8f99-87033396813b","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.3670331110097782,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.7,"year":6,"after":{"army":46,"church":45,"people":37,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6115999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:55.559Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":47,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.7,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":3.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.02,"3":0.67,"4":0.22}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.33,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.57,"2":0.01,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:55.783Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":47,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-6","church":"+12","people":"-11","treasury":"-14"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:57.553Z","v":3,"id":"4e5bdce4-cd1f-442d-b9f4-ab15d5767bcb","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.8020862108574367,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.36,"year":7,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":32,"treasury":51},"blend":0.46199999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:57.553Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:37:59.549Z","v":3,"id":"ad963f1a-c3ee-4e1f-9ad3-ca943d5c6d35","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.15384222033087358,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.99,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":40,"people":26,"treasury":61},"blend":0.8285,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:37:59.549Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:01.552Z","v":3,"id":"95e8f9ed-b3e2-4c41-b1bc-6790bc80de1d","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8654666206439059,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":38,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":56},"blend":0.8351,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:01.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.66,"2":0.21,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.67,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.54,"2":0.27,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.31,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.87,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.7,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.44,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":306},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:01.858Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":26,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-8","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":38,"church":40,"people":26,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.32,"church":1.25,"people":0.32,"treasury":3.13},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.15,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":12,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":306},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:03.566Z","v":3,"id":"f0f2c178-9611-457d-988a-fa63cd05cc64","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.49455625026584493,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":36,"church":36,"people":20,"treasury":70},"blend":0.8333999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:03.566Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.47,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.71,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.17,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.71,"4":0.22}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:03.725Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-8"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-19","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":267}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":38,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.3,"people":0.39,"treasury":3.09},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.19,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-18,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":267,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:05.552Z","v":3,"id":"a9a71e9e-2dea-47f8-a73f-85675e2e28a4","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.16876978060494618,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.89,"year":11,"after":{"army":32,"church":33,"people":15,"treasury":69},"blend":0.7387,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:05.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.61,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.54,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:05.727Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":36,"church":36,"people":20,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.67,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.92,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:07.568Z","v":3,"id":"bab185ac-fd0b-472a-b515-7a243024225a","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5408392994924716,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.41,"year":12,"after":{"army":21,"church":34,"people":21,"treasury":72},"blend":0.34029999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:07.568Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.42,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.79,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.72,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.29,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.52,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.36,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:07.738Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-4"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":32,"church":33,"people":15,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.61,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":1.02,"church":2.03,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.18}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-12,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:09.552Z","v":3,"id":"4cbb6bac-7e0b-4aaa-8ab4-a0d2b0876678","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.28341542640868034,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.98,"year":13,"after":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":16,"treasury":75},"blend":0.8150999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:09.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":21,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.12,"3":0.34,"4":0.13}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.65,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:09.752Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":21,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":21,"church":34,"people":21,"treasury":72},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.73,"people":1.53,"treasury":2.14},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.02,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:11.567Z","v":3,"id":"e6cf4d15-5256-4425-94e4-12e552e4a967","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.7605539561669943,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0,"year":14,"after":{"army":20,"church":30,"people":9,"treasury":87},"blend":0.1683,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:11.567Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.63,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.59,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.1,"3":0.83,"4":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:11.742Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"+11"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":20,"church":32,"people":16,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.77,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.71,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.88}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:13.568Z","v":3,"id":"8bb03089-6855-43df-ad8e-bace73b5920f","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.742926144998695,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.05,"year":15,"after":{"army":21,"church":30,"people":15,"treasury":94},"blend":0.067,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:13.568Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.15,"2":0.03,"3":0.44,"4":0.21}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.59,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.47,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.46,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.42,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.44,"3":0.49,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:13.716Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":87},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-6","church":"+4","people":"-15","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":795,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":20,"church":30,"people":9,"treasury":87},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.37,"people":0.75,"treasury":0.55},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.94,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2742,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.71}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:15.572Z","v":3,"id":"292a40b1-a7eb-4b93-b081-b0115b8146a6","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9272163593522089,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.77,"year":16,"after":{"army":22,"church":24,"people":16,"treasury":92},"blend":0.6425,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:15.572Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":94},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.63,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.07,"3":0.68,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.58,"2":0.08,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.25,"2":0.38,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.16,"2":0.45,"3":0.29,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.27,"2":0.52,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:15.800Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 94: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":94},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-5","church":"+8","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Stand":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"0","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 94: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":21,"church":30,"people":15,"treasury":94},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":2.65,"people":1.6,"treasury":2.12},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.4,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2689,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:17.552Z","v":3,"id":"5814f0c0-6408-434b-942f-6e100b51ae15","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Osric III","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.752378651853518,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":12,"church":18,"people":2,"treasury":100},"blend":0.8217,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:17.552Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Osric III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.85,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.59,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.74,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.12,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.18,"2":0.02,"3":0.43,"4":0.26}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.51,"2":0.29,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:17.748Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":16,"treasury":92},"monarch":{"name":"Osric III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Osric III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"+7","treasury":"-7"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-11","church":"-7","people":"-15","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 92: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":790,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a1dfdb24-eaa1-42d7-9384-11b5b1250a79","before":{"army":22,"church":24,"people":16,"treasury":92},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.08,"church":1.42,"people":0.77,"treasury":2.55},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.94,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2747,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":7,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:19.560Z","v":3,"id":"bb261c9c-559e-4bfe-b8c9-ab02e89a7031","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6097882439867544,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":43,"church":49,"people":53,"treasury":37},"blend":0.8319,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:19.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.43,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.31,"2":0.05,"3":0.56,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.54,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.26,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.84,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:19.695Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4d0551bd-b480-43c6-9084-c594acb92935","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.87,"people":2.19,"treasury":0.85},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.01,"people":1.79,"treasury":2.49}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":3,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:21.559Z","v":3,"id":"f8827f54-b0f8-4832-ba98-88f55900174b","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.39,"mock":false,"roll":0.6657643548816146,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.3,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":39,"people":56,"treasury":30},"blend":0.31529999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:21.559Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":53,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.26,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.37,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.12,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:21.733Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":53,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-3","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4d0551bd-b480-43c6-9084-c594acb92935","before":{"army":43,"church":49,"people":53,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":2.88,"people":2.5,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.09,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.22}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:23.572Z","v":3,"id":"231d11d8-48bb-49f9-8017-439bdab25ed1","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.426718039106865,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":34,"church":33,"people":46,"treasury":13},"blend":0.83,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:23.572Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":56,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.71,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.46,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.46,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:23.740Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":56,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-18"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4d0551bd-b480-43c6-9084-c594acb92935","before":{"army":43,"church":39,"people":56,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.43,"people":1.12,"treasury":0.46},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":2.08,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.64}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-17},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:25.574Z","v":3,"id":"3b336f1d-a491-4f30-b741-90651787bb06","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.17},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.49132296190845226,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.71,"year":4,"after":{"army":32,"church":31,"people":44,"treasury":1},"blend":0.5892999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:25.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.62,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:25.822Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-2"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":237}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4d0551bd-b480-43c6-9084-c594acb92935","before":{"army":34,"church":33,"people":46,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.78,"people":1.75,"treasury":0.93},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.97,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2650,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":237,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:27.574Z","v":3,"id":"d2c16419-7b1c-4999-9edd-6052f66518eb","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.17},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9239046557326585,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.17,"year":5,"after":{"army":31,"church":28,"people":43,"treasury":0},"blend":0.1428,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:27.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.31,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.21,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.33,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.29,"2":0.22,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.26,"2":0.44,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:27.706Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":1},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 17% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 1: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":287}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"4d0551bd-b480-43c6-9084-c594acb92935","before":{"army":32,"church":31,"people":44,"treasury":1},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":1.57,"people":1.28,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.7,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":287,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:29.558Z","v":3,"id":"e9102faf-496c-4150-a07d-440edf3faf35","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4211871830105496,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.95,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":50,"treasury":51},"blend":0.9832000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:29.558Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":146},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:29.704Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":289}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.97,"people":1.93,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.98,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":289,"forecast":146},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:31.573Z","v":3,"id":"c4138f61-6040-478d-b2f9-f2b1760b5046","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.6476174835363586,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.29,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":52},"blend":0.08250000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:31.573Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":50,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.83,"1":0.15,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.16,"2":0.05,"3":0.55,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.58,"2":0.1,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.29,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.17,"3":0.6,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:31.749Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":50,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Disband the army":{"army":"-22","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"It is a rock in the sky":{"army":"+3","church":"-7","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:33.572Z","v":3,"id":"7ab81d39-7beb-4746-9115-e9f32307f925","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.057713359999102654,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.93,"year":3,"after":{"army":52,"church":42,"people":46,"treasury":48},"blend":0.17470000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:33.572Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.59,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:33.717Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":54,"church":45,"people":54,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.67,"people":1.24,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.07,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:35.559Z","v":3,"id":"b49c34a1-b2ad-440f-b6fd-1b0521d9b448","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.029192766388342672,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.9,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":30,"people":31,"treasury":37},"blend":0.16960000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:35.559Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.27,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.67,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.7,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.43,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.8,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:35.758Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":248}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":52,"church":42,"people":46,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":0.95,"people":0.68,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.18,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":248,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-13,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:37.559Z","v":3,"id":"4e84061c-54f8-4a6f-919d-c4e7b4c927fb","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9088585232777273,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.88,"year":5,"after":{"army":49,"church":31,"people":34,"treasury":35},"blend":0.15790000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:37.559Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":31,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.67,"2":0.2,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.55,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.64,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.82,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.59,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:37.742Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"people":31,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":48,"church":30,"people":31,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":1.52,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.99,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:39.559Z","v":3,"id":"53a0f1af-69d5-4a5a-b086-895e6278ff6c","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.15804323910228923,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":41,"church":29,"people":26,"treasury":30},"blend":0.17660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:39.559Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":34,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.74,"2":0.14,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.2,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.53,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.27,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.57,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":229},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:39.788Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":34,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":49,"church":31,"people":34,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.75,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.44,"church":1.8,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":229},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":5,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:41.561Z","v":3,"id":"f2a8f831-375f-49f4-a5a7-46dd09fc1ca6","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.077187994083044,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":31,"church":18,"people":14,"treasury":17},"blend":0.18660000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:41.561Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":26,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.82,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.72,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.79,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.55,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.81,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:41.767Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":26,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+2"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-11","church":"-12","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":242}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":41,"church":29,"people":26,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.01,"people":0.9,"treasury":0.87},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.05,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-11,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":242,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-12,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:43.561Z","v":3,"id":"03d73322-7e89-4765-96b1-7e292f274cf4","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8692749614124453,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.99,"year":8,"after":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":14,"treasury":15},"blend":0.16830000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:43.561Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1955,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.25,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:43.797Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":18,"danger":["church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-2","church":"+5","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"-6","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":801,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":31,"church":18,"people":14,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.06,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.4,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2756,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:45.562Z","v":3,"id":"c30384dc-cc06-4a91-8767-7a1285405702","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4094558533254662,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.97,"year":9,"after":{"army":30,"church":22,"people":13,"treasury":13},"blend":0.17320000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:45.562Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.5,"2":0.43,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.56,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.65,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.58,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.65,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:45.724Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-7","church":"-12","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":30,"church":24,"people":14,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":0.96,"people":0.94,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.75,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-12,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:47.560Z","v":3,"id":"2cb031a4-af12-480c-a8bc-57f519edb845","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9794620633557056,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.02,"year":10,"after":{"army":33,"church":22,"people":20,"treasury":19},"blend":0.0034000000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:47.560Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.52,"2":0.36,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.13,"2":0.02,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0.18}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.37,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.34,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.41,"3":0.52,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.82,"1":0.17,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.39,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:47.772Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-19","treasury":"-22"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":30,"church":22,"people":13,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.28,"people":0.42,"treasury":0.19},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":1.91,"people":2.47,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2702,"applied":{"army":3,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-19,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:49.561Z","v":3,"id":"e169cbe2-f31c-4c6c-b97d-15710f400ba8","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5796821145529152,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.96,"year":11,"after":{"army":34,"church":24,"people":26,"treasury":20},"blend":0.16320000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:49.561Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.6,"1":0.35,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.84,"1":0.16,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.46,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.33,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.44,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.51,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:49.744Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-12","church":"-18","people":"-22","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":786,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":33,"church":22,"people":20,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":0.48,"people":0.17,"treasury":0.47},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.05,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2742,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-18,"people":-22,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:51.581Z","v":3,"id":"cd83b625-277a-4c9f-a902-d18ba5870058","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.15580895972952136,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":33,"church":24,"people":23,"treasury":16},"blend":0.9833999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:51.581Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.32,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.41,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.47,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:51.749Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":26,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-8"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":34,"church":24,"people":26,"treasury":20},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.91,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.74,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:53.579Z","v":3,"id":"232a1ff9-12df-40f1-981e-764e23af078d","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9835932591405037,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":35,"church":26,"people":25,"treasury":17},"blend":0.9983,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:53.579Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.58,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.87,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:53.774Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"danger":["treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":33,"church":24,"people":23,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.1,"church":2.05,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.78,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:55.569Z","v":3,"id":"dcb74ef4-5be5-4a6b-827d-0cdf7bdf7059","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7370460482793455,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.98,"year":14,"after":{"army":30,"church":23,"people":24,"treasury":18},"blend":0.16660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:55.569Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.56,"2":0.22,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.38,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.68,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.22,"2":0.44,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.58,"1":0.42,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.2,"2":0.28,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:55.775Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-19"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":35,"church":26,"people":25,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.56,"people":1.08,"treasury":0.42},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.7,"people":1.82,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:57.578Z","v":3,"id":"e351afaa-640f-49ed-9fad-9288473b042e","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.07391826322354245,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.98,"year":15,"after":{"army":28,"church":19,"people":12,"treasury":11},"blend":0.20810000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:57.578Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.62,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.18,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.5,"2":0.36,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.56,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":129},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:57.707Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-8"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":30,"church":23,"people":24,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.62,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.31},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.84,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":129},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:38:59.565Z","v":3,"id":"c93f2648-aa56-4fdf-aee6-80f916492ba1","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7572606129556445,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.99,"year":16,"after":{"army":27,"church":17,"people":11,"treasury":9},"blend":0.17660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:59.565Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:38:59.765Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":808,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":217}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":28,"church":19,"people":12,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.77,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.73,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2776,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":217,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:01.574Z","v":3,"id":"1a8d4e8e-4df6-4ea0-8f83-42e8832e3974","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9962288347290489,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.6,"year":17,"after":{"army":26,"church":10,"people":11,"treasury":12},"blend":0.14350000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:01.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1972,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.36,"2":0.11,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.84,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.67,"2":0.17,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.43,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.65,"2":0.14,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.43,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":262},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:01.836Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-13","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":808,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":27,"church":17,"people":11,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.75,"people":0.94,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.34,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2780,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":0,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":262},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:03.566Z","v":3,"id":"d779b9e3-d10d-4c06-8cef-a103bf69c370","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3460592507695359,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.91,"year":18,"after":{"army":25,"church":10,"people":13,"treasury":10},"blend":0.15470000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:03.566Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1959,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.64,"2":0.17,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.66,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.49,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.76,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.7,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.47,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.61,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:03.738Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-17"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":806,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":26,"church":10,"people":11,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":1.33,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.59},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.95,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2765,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:05.577Z","v":3,"id":"01173624-f506-49db-9473-6b6705699f42","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5291409645762359,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.57,"year":19,"after":{"army":26,"church":10,"people":19,"treasury":16},"blend":0.09690000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:05.577Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.4,"2":0.24,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.34,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.45,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.47,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.52,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:05.728Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":13,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-5","church":"-16","people":"-17","treasury":"-24"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+5","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":808,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":25,"church":10,"people":13,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.55,"church":0.69,"people":0.55,"treasury":0.03},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.95,"people":2.45,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2772,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-16,"people":-17,"treasury":-24},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:07.570Z","v":3,"id":"325b4425-ad94-4ae4-b804-1da188ba1cd4","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.37,"mock":false,"roll":0.2602242964730861,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.16,"year":20,"after":{"army":21,"church":10,"people":2,"treasury":7},"blend":0.3343,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:07.570Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1971,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.45,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.19,"2":0.02,"3":0.51,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.5,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.69,"2":0.16,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.23,"3":0.76,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.6,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.67,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:07.739Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-18","treasury":"-10"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":811,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":26,"church":10,"people":19,"treasury":16},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.92,"people":0.52,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.34,"people":2.75,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2782,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-18,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.26}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:09.563Z","v":3,"id":"46b55486-7422-4968-bd03-fff265261ad9","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5295359205412005,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.97,"year":21,"after":{"army":12,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":14},"blend":0.16490000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:09.563Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":2,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.49,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.09,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.33,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.59,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.12,"2":0.28,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.57,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.21,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:09.787Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":2,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-9"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":794,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":21,"church":10,"people":2,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.42,"people":1.09,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.14,"church":1.76,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2740,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:11.564Z","v":3,"id":"50915a5d-89db-48a8-b9be-4f910b958777","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.7431301452088652,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.97,"year":22,"after":{"army":13,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":8},"blend":0.41390000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:11.564Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1963,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.74,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.28,"2":0.38,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.42,"2":0.48,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.25,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.22,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:11.723Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-7"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-10","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":823,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":300}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":12,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.94,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.65,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2786,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":300,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:13.581Z","v":3,"id":"3008db72-b807-4cb9-a8f1-b80ecc037d1a","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.929155806282034,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.98,"year":23,"after":{"army":13,"church":7,"people":9,"treasury":6},"blend":0.16660000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:13.581Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":5,"danger":["church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1971,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.47,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.53,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.5700000000000001,"1":0.43,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.21,"2":0.34,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.28,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.46,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:13.715Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":5,"danger":["church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-4","church":"-12","people":"-19","treasury":"-8"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":829,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":13,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.01,"people":0.45,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.09,"people":2.44,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2800,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-12,"people":-19,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:15.581Z","v":3,"id":"b35414eb-c158-4bd4-a6a2-8efe24543a28","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7181720604327733,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.24,"year":24,"after":{"army":14,"church":8,"people":11,"treasury":10},"blend":0.04080000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:15.581Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":7,"danger":["church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1960,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.43,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.53,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.45,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:15.728Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":7,"danger":["church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-18","church":"-12","people":"-18","treasury":"-21"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":821,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":13,"church":7,"people":9,"treasury":6},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.53,"church":0.96,"people":0.53,"treasury":0.23},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.97,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2781,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-12,"people":-18,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:17.569Z","v":3,"id":"7f73513d-b240-41e2-8c75-5245a04d714a","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8887179761733266,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.05,"year":25,"after":{"army":22,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":6},"blend":0.016800000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:17.569Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1980,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.37,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.42,"2":0.31,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.54,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.47,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":234},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:17.803Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-17","church":"-9","people":"-8","treasury":"-15"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+7","church":"-7","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":837,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":14,"church":8,"people":11,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.6,"church":1.26,"people":1.32,"treasury":0.72},"right":{"army":2.58,"church":1.42,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2817,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":234},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-17,"church":-9,"people":-8,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":7,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:19.569Z","v":3,"id":"9c374e0e-9ab4-417d-9e5a-cb516e9e97c7","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.01696375760101909,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.03,"year":26,"after":{"army":24,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":8},"blend":0.013400000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:19.569Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":2,"danger":["church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.52,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.53,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.59,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.75,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:19.763Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":2,"danger":["church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":809,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":22,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":6},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.08,"people":1.35,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.9,"people":1.82,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2777,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:21.568Z","v":3,"id":"50de22a2-cf1a-4850-ba77-7e987716bcdd","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.14155861917587997,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.19,"year":27,"after":{"army":27,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":16},"blend":0.03230000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:21.568Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":2,"danger":["church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.55,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.64,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.75,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:21.759Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":2,"danger":["church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-9","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-22"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+2","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":796,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":24,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.18,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.13},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.09,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2744,"applied":{"army":3,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:23.574Z","v":3,"id":"f2f94060-80ff-4890-ac45-2ad832d9e146","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9902654727494182,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.03,"year":28,"after":{"army":30,"church":10,"people":15,"treasury":14},"blend":0.013400000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:23.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.69,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.76,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.87,"1":0.11,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.76,"1":0.22,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0.4,"4":0.47}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:23.728Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":16},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"+5","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-9","church":"-22","people":"-21","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":817,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":27,"church":4,"people":9,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":0.15,"people":0.27,"treasury":3.17},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":2.39,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2785,"applied":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-22,"people":-21,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:25.580Z","v":3,"id":"acfb5dde-ebd3-497b-8216-ff44a51a7c12","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.2322399480241948,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.17,"year":29,"after":{"army":33,"church":3,"people":23,"treasury":22},"blend":0.1202,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:25.580Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.67,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.6,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.36,"2":0.05,"3":0.38,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.4,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.65,"2":0.21,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.33,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.1,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.57,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:25.732Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-14","church":"-3","people":"-19","treasury":"-23"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":813,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":30,"church":10,"people":15,"treasury":14},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.81,"church":1.72,"people":0.42,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":1.35,"people":2.62,"treasury":2.55}},"tokens":2781,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-7,"people":8,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-3,"people":-19,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:27.574Z","v":3,"id":"d6f7ce5e-c0cb-41bf-9b25-5a6422ae105f","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8407083832695659,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.28,"year":30,"after":{"army":37,"church":9,"people":35,"treasury":23},"blend":0.04760000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:27.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.63,"2":0.12,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.23,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.57,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.64,"3":0.17,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:27.707Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":23,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-7","church":"-12","people":"-13","treasury":"-6"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+3","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":33,"church":3,"people":23,"treasury":22},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":0.97,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.52},"right":{"army":2.24,"church":2.42,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2679,"applied":{"army":4,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-12,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":3,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:29.566Z","v":3,"id":"ec6dd12b-18e9-4fe7-8d5f-cd8b8a032430","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.09487807192842079,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.03,"year":31,"after":{"army":39,"church":10,"people":43,"treasury":22},"blend":0.005100000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:29.566Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":9,"danger":["church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.64,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.64,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.27,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:29.783Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":9,"danger":["church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-2"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":243}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":37,"church":9,"people":35,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":1.07,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.97,"people":2.61,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":243,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:31.584Z","v":3,"id":"e18f903b-e673-419b-a92b-7a447f3f49a8","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.07432089581483425,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.9,"year":32,"after":{"army":34,"church":3,"people":38,"treasury":20},"blend":0.18620000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:31.584Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":43,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1953,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.36,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.55,"2":0.3,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47,"2":0.48,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.43,"2":0.33,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.32,"2":0.48,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.69,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:31.824Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":10,"danger":["church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":43,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-6","church":"-8","people":"-6","treasury":"-3"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":39,"church":10,"people":43,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.37,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.39,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:33.583Z","v":3,"id":"a1c9e80e-611e-41aa-9d09-a92f6e2899f2","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4381523706935653,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.88,"year":33,"after":{"army":24,"church":8,"people":35,"treasury":12},"blend":0.17450000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:33.583Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.55,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.69,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.5,"2":0.37,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.14,"2":0.09,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.21,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.23,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:33.767Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+4","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+1","church":"-11","people":"-6","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":34,"church":3,"people":38,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.1,"church":1.08,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.06,"church":2.32,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":5,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-11,"church":4,"people":-4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:35.582Z","v":3,"id":"bd92fe64-9492-4c59-9ad8-58faab5c77be","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9209461849811889,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.64,"year":34,"after":{"army":24,"church":9,"people":39,"treasury":13},"blend":0.10880000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:35.582Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.59,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.47,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.68,"1":0.32,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:35.785Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":35,"treasury":12},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-16","church":"-16","people":"-20","treasury":"-23"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":767,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":24,"church":8,"people":35,"treasury":12},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.68,"church":0.67,"people":0.33,"treasury":0.06},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.96,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-16,"people":-20,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:37.583Z","v":3,"id":"b0c81cd1-7788-41ea-a300-cb8ca89d9463","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8135067576810593,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0.49,"year":35,"after":{"army":25,"church":8,"people":48,"treasury":10},"blend":0.08330000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:37.583Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":9,"danger":["church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.02,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.69,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.34,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.53,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.19,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.17,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.73,"1":0.2,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.18,"3":0.25,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":308},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:37.891Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":9,"danger":["church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-10","people":"-16","treasury":"-20"},"Fix it now":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":24,"church":9,"people":39,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.16,"people":0.66,"treasury":0.35},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.84,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":308},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-10,"people":-16,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.02,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:39.573Z","v":3,"id":"566b7ea9-6c62-444b-b083-9dc56a6e9b12","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.38070027295785813,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.01,"year":36,"after":{"army":26,"church":7,"people":47,"treasury":10},"blend":0.0017000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:39.573Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.66,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.61,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.45,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.41,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.32,"2":0.36,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.36,"2":0.25,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.52,"1":0.4,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:39.800Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":8,"danger":["church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":48,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-12","church":"-15","people":"-16","treasury":"-17"},"Turn them away":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":119}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":25,"church":8,"people":48,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0.76,"people":0.65,"treasury":0.58},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.8,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":119,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-15,"people":-16,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:41.578Z","v":3,"id":"73072fb0-375f-42ce-bd26-78ef59949f31","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.59,"mock":false,"roll":0.9112763816908118,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.04,"year":37,"after":{"army":25,"church":4,"people":50,"treasury":6},"blend":0.4965,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:41.578Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":7,"danger":["church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":47,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1958,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.71,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.23,"2":0.6,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.55,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.34,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.06,"4":0.88}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.29,"2":0.49,"3":0.06,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:41.751Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":7,"danger":["church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":47,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-17","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":26,"church":7,"people":47,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.73,"people":0.62,"treasury":3.76},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.66,"people":2.15,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2749,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-17,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.18}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:43.604Z","v":3,"id":"70b304db-4e2e-4472-8e76-ecf284dc7d63","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3578619750340515,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.04,"year":38,"after":{"army":26,"church":4,"people":50,"treasury":11},"blend":0.006800000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:43.604Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.67,"2":0.22,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.35,"2":0.52,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.54,"2":0.32,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.64,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:43.809Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-16"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":25,"church":4,"people":50,"treasury":6},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.58,"people":1.39,"treasury":0.69},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.89,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:45.581Z","v":3,"id":"afe41147-22a8-46d5-8c42-3412cbd5c75b","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.26401662140314053,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.01,"year":39,"after":{"army":28,"church":3,"people":51,"treasury":11},"blend":0.0017000000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:45.581Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Ivo IV, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.49,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.43,"2":0.45,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.58,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:45.749Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":4,"danger":["church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-8","church":"-9","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":769,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":26,"church":4,"people":50,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.27,"people":1.46,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.83,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:47.576Z","v":3,"id":"2bacc780-9117-4702-95e1-be84df18cae4","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":0.83},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.28588596784833653,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.85,"year":40,"after":{"army":22,"church":3,"people":57,"treasury":0},"blend":0.2773,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:47.576Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":3,"danger":["church is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":51,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Ivo IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 83% of the time.","description":"Ivo IV suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.41,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.56,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.23,"2":0.39,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.13,"2":0.05,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.32,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.6,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:47.751Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"2ae8a787-e295-43cf-83d5-a6163c307b9c","before":{"army":28,"church":3,"people":51,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.2,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.87},"right":{"army":1.38,"church":1.89,"people":2.45,"treasury":0.61}},"tokens":2713,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":-17}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:49.575Z","v":3,"id":"c8cf8a5f-7047-4be6-9a97-a2ced365289d","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.18424860827654865,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":44,"church":43,"people":31,"treasury":65},"blend":0.8176000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:49.575Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.58,"2":0.28,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.51,"2":0.35,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.34,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.08,"3":0.88,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.28}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.47,"2":0.45,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:49.778Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.36,"people":0.36,"treasury":3.2},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.11,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-19,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-20,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:51.586Z","v":3,"id":"08435e69-2e4f-4e43-97e9-8cc694812176","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.9618204631704248,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.27,"year":2,"after":{"army":44,"church":42,"people":26,"treasury":61},"blend":0.4011,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:51.586Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":31,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1876,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.86,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.84,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:51.767Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":31,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":681,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":44,"church":43,"people":31,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.98,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.86,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2557,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:53.589Z","v":3,"id":"5e63eb29-380c-4fe3-aad4-c35e9d21ecbd","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.7912582250369093,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.95,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":42,"people":28,"treasury":59},"blend":0.9557,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:53.589Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":26,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.62,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.38,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.51,"2":0.06,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.24,"2":0.12,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:53.793Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":26,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":44,"church":42,"people":26,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.94,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.79},"right":{"army":1.42,"church":1.36,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:55.572Z","v":3,"id":"f6f8df9e-091a-41cd-9455-f58188719879","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.4154242681963416,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.91,"year":4,"after":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":35,"treasury":64},"blend":0.9195000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:55.572Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":28,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.06,"3":0.81,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.18,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.33,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.16,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.07,"3":0.55,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.24,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:55.765Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":28,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-1","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":45,"church":42,"people":28,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":2.89,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.34},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.71,"people":1.42,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":0,"church":12,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:57.587Z","v":3,"id":"74b4eb27-0fbc-4677-bd89-0c61e12b49c6","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.18909782950913612,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.7,"year":5,"after":{"army":42,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":59},"blend":0.5689,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:57.587Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":35,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.69,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.41,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.78,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:57.783Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":35,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":45,"church":54,"people":35,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.86,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.95,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:39:59.573Z","v":3,"id":"2a06cc4b-8d2b-41da-afe3-5f5b53a4d95a","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.12942033776213013,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.77,"year":6,"after":{"army":36,"church":48,"people":20,"treasury":47},"blend":0.6275000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:59.573Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.85,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.42,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.38,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:39:59.756Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":42,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":59},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.54,"people":1.1,"treasury":0.88},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.11,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.53}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:01.577Z","v":3,"id":"807c2acb-6843-4deb-8aa9-3b933712459d","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":0.19},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.045220149147122024,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":26,"church":32,"people":0,"treasury":68},"blend":0.81,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:01.577Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun IV, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.79,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.71,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.48,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.89,"1":0.1,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.35,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.18,"4":0.78}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:01.784Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Sigrun IV will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-7"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-17","people":"-22","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf67e21c-ce52-4de0-8c7a-bff27b731b5a","before":{"army":36,"church":48,"people":20,"treasury":47},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":0.57,"people":0.13,"treasury":3.67},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.5,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.43}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-16,"people":-21,"treasury":21},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-17,"people":-22,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:03.579Z","v":3,"id":"1fcb15c1-0b63-4cba-8d60-37550182d48f","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2658595299523039,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.9,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":39,"people":35,"treasury":38},"blend":0.6152,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:03.579Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.36,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.68,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.74,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:03.770Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-16","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1,"people":0.7,"treasury":0.94},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.15,"people":2.47,"treasury":2.44}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-16,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:05.582Z","v":3,"id":"7dd84313-eb51-4bac-9f41-e89118615351","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8205798462702716,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":40,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6763999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:05.582Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":35,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.64,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:05.726Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":35,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-5","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":46,"church":39,"people":35,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.7,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2,"people":2.3,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:07.589Z","v":3,"id":"2abdb5cc-3562-41cc-bd53-34969e269894","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.970403841905767,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.07,"year":3,"after":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":35,"treasury":39},"blend":0.36440000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:07.589Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":40,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.55,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.47,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.37,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":235},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:07.824Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":40,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":46,"church":40,"people":40,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.89,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.76,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.55}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":235},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:09.574Z","v":3,"id":"232f9086-0293-4cae-bd7c-2ffd682d8a89","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.06143237919601141,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.98,"year":4,"after":{"army":41,"church":36,"people":28,"treasury":29},"blend":0.6727999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:09.574Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":35,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.66,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.57,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.5,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:09.710Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":35,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":44,"church":38,"people":35,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.78,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.88,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:11.589Z","v":3,"id":"cae68bd5-a6a3-4947-a4d6-315f0e5cd8e8","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3916210623416869,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":32,"church":28,"people":17,"treasury":18},"blend":0.6831999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:11.589Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":28,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.66,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.34,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.23,"3":0.72,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:11.772Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":28,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":277}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":41,"church":36,"people":28,"treasury":29},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.26,"people":1.04,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.28,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":277,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:13.601Z","v":3,"id":"97b168e0-96d0-4792-a986-42550bb3cc9c","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.32},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.07100087117287379,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.52,"year":6,"after":{"army":29,"church":19,"people":0,"treasury":0},"blend":0.35359999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:13.601Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.66,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.45,"2":0.33,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.49,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.58,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.12,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.69,"1":0.22,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.15,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:13.854Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":28,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 32% of the time.","description":"Philippa III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"-18","treasury":"-19"},"Fix it now":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a46cc415-1dc0-45fb-9964-dd350b405591","before":{"army":32,"church":28,"people":17,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.14,"people":0.54,"treasury":0.44},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.02,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2719,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-17,"treasury":-18},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":-18,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.04,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:15.587Z","v":3,"id":"d8094965-cad5-4d0b-888f-9eaf2c418f61","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.18178314754553004,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":34,"treasury":42},"blend":0.21429999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:15.587Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.45,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.2,"2":0.04,"3":0.55,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.55,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.78,"2":0.05,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.05,"3":0.77,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.51,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.34,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:15.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-17","treasury":"-9"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"+8","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.28,"people":0.61,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.11,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":4,"people":-16,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-17,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":8,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:17.572Z","v":3,"id":"904786c6-614e-40a9-b366-9851492bfb22","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2848253949950501,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.98,"year":2,"after":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":37,"treasury":44},"blend":0.19429999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:17.572Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":34,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.12,"3":0.67,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.71,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:17.777Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":34,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-8","church":"+8","people":"-7","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":42,"church":54,"people":34,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.35,"church":2.65,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.58,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":8,"people":-7,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:19.578Z","v":3,"id":"5f1e1653-467f-428d-b189-de434593b208","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.050438811323573196,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":38,"church":70,"people":25,"treasury":35},"blend":0.26289999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:19.578Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":37,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.04,"3":0.67,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.83,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.1,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.39,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:19.791Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":37,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-4","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"+7","people":"-13","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":43,"church":62,"people":37,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":2.57,"people":0.9,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.17,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":8,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:21.576Z","v":3,"id":"aec4c606-c44d-489f-9a16-b9f8437645dc","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.032385861634888435,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.62,"year":4,"after":{"army":38,"church":70,"people":22,"treasury":27},"blend":0.12589999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:21.576Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":25,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.62,"right":0.38}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.96,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:21.734Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":25,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":260}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":38,"church":70,"people":25,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.94,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.94,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":260,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:23.594Z","v":3,"id":"03ffc81e-edee-4c08-83e0-fe38de657a55","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5133897698515217,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":62,"people":30,"treasury":32},"blend":0.21429999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:23.594Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":22,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.63,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.52,"4":0.24}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.72,"2":0.12,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.16,"3":0.7,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.61,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.22,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":231},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:23.825Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"people":22,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"+4"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-10","church":"+9","people":"-14","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":38,"church":70,"people":22,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":2.77,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.66},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.23,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":8,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":231},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":9,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":4}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:25.589Z","v":3,"id":"4ab6e95d-69d9-419a-91f7-3bb229aeac19","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.06726820493312191,"step":12,"trap":0.09,"want":0.74,"year":6,"after":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":24,"treasury":31},"blend":0.15679999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:25.589Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":30,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.09,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.52,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.73,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:25.775Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":30,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-7","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":39,"church":62,"people":30,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":2,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.1,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:27.592Z","v":3,"id":"6f6f4bab-f330-42e6-9e3f-d88b6397575f","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.4284902810545568,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.83,"year":7,"after":{"army":30,"church":60,"people":22,"treasury":33},"blend":0.19009999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:27.592Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":24,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.35,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.5,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.37,"2":0.46,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.26,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.26,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:27.799Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":24,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-3","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":24,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.96,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.46,"church":1.68,"people":1.73,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:29.579Z","v":3,"id":"10ef86b6-120c-4774-90e0-e324e76f1769","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.8592097347079874,"step":12,"trap":0.38,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":28,"church":72,"people":28,"treasury":23},"blend":0.8946999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:29.579Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":22,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.38,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.9,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.24,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.24,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:29.735Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":22,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-3","church":"+11","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":30,"church":60,"people":22,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.94,"people":2.45,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":12,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":11,"people":5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-5,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:31.594Z","v":3,"id":"9f668382-60d6-412d-8644-ecbc7c5ae5d6","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.993338260827977,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":30,"church":61,"people":35,"treasury":31},"blend":0.22239999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:31.594Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":28,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.48,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.02,"3":0.63,"4":0.2}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.7,"2":0.04,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.19,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.29,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.14,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:31.746Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":28,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-11","church":"+10","people":"-14","treasury":"-21"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"+1","church":"-12","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":724,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":28,"church":72,"people":28,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.06,"church":2.83,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.29},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":1.02,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-11,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":10,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":1,"church":-12,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:33.581Z","v":3,"id":"9d9fd74b-da53-410a-bebd-3063eb2de35d","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.686298553859275,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.36,"year":10,"after":{"army":31,"church":65,"people":36,"treasury":33},"blend":0.10079999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:33.581Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":35,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1928,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.55,"2":0.25,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.56,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:33.728Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":35,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"0","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":30,"church":61,"people":35,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.65,"church":1.51,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.28,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:35.594Z","v":3,"id":"324905c9-78a7-4f30-b6a9-7d03a7eb3a7a","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.4,"mock":false,"roll":0.10749426972824772,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":23,"church":76,"people":31,"treasury":35},"blend":0.514,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:35.594Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":36,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.35,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.06,"3":0.74,"4":0.11}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.5,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.04,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.32,"2":0.27,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.71,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.59,"2":0.3,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:35.803Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":36,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-9","church":"+10","people":"-6","treasury":"+1"},"Stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-16","people":"-2","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":31,"church":65,"people":36,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":2.87,"people":1.46,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":0.69,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":11,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":10,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-16,"people":-2,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.2}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:37.598Z","v":3,"id":"8b31ce80-6ae0-4d8b-b2f4-ff411f9f1815","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9962916724496085,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":24,"church":68,"people":42,"treasury":33},"blend":0.23049999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:37.598Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":31,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.02,"3":0.62,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.75,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.1,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:37.745Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":31,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+5","people":"-15","treasury":"-6"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":23,"church":76,"people":31,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":2.45,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.21,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":5,"people":-15,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:39.582Z","v":3,"id":"d6bd639e-966a-45b2-bd7c-e833e351106b","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.24,"mock":false,"roll":0.1162999837213301,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":20,"church":78,"people":34,"treasury":36},"blend":0.38249999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:39.582Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":42,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.05,"3":0.76,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.69,"2":0.15,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.46,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.22,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.37,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:39.714Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":42,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-5","church":"+9","people":"-9","treasury":"+2"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":24,"church":68,"people":42,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":2.75,"people":1.28,"treasury":2.2},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.25,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":10,"people":-8,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.53}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:41.580Z","v":3,"id":"0a45ee7f-2d84-42fd-92f0-12b4a941b685","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.09395754093706854,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.42,"year":14,"after":{"army":18,"church":79,"people":34,"treasury":37},"blend":0.8898,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:41.580Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.56,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:41.758Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":124}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":20,"church":78,"people":34,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":1.98,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":124,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:43.577Z","v":3,"id":"44e3cd06-f0a3-457e-ae61-2b3a04aa3547","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.44716077656163145,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0,"year":15,"after":{"army":17,"church":89,"people":38,"treasury":38},"blend":0.008100000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:43.577Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.77,"4":0.04}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.58,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:43.730Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":18,"church":79,"people":34,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.08,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.76,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2669,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:45.585Z","v":3,"id":"a5355cf6-0274-4093-b22c-37ada78ec46f","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.0021751425119937995,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":12,"church":95,"people":27,"treasury":36},"blend":0.19809999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:45.585Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1966,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.09,"2":0.03,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.23}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.72,"2":0.16,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.43,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.39999999999999997,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.49,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:45.739Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":89,"danger":["church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 89: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":17,"church":89,"people":38,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":2.44,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":1.3,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2750,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":6,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:47.600Z","v":3,"id":"0d3e1683-806e-44bb-b80c-8bd5b288c758","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.25447430639666724,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.94,"year":17,"after":{"army":3,"church":98,"people":25,"treasury":36},"blend":0.22719999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:47.600Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":95,"danger":["church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.24,"2":0.21,"3":0.4,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.58,"3":0.26,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:47.769Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":95,"danger":["church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":27,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-10","church":"+2","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-11","church":"+2","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 95: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":12,"church":95,"people":27,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":2.19,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.17,"church":2.15,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2741,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":2,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-10,"church":2,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:49.585Z","v":3,"id":"1fb2c68d-bf44-49fc-8878-33c059b40298","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7571374776168045,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.95,"year":18,"after":{"army":5,"church":97,"people":33,"treasury":44},"blend":0.18049999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:49.585Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":98,"danger":["church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1958,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.72,"1":0.23,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.64,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.12,"2":0.05,"3":0.29,"4":0.39}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.42,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.42,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.19,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:49.764Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":98,"danger":["church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":25,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+1","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-20","church":"+8","people":"-19","treasury":"-22"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 98: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":3,"church":98,"people":25,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.36,"church":2.64,"people":0.44,"treasury":0.19},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.82,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2741,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-20,"church":8,"people":-19,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:51.597Z","v":3,"id":"0671f044-3c1b-4805-9b5b-424e0967caea","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Casimir V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.9,"mock":false,"roll":0.506007195215781,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.02,"year":19,"after":{"army":0,"church":89,"people":21,"treasury":63},"blend":0.7328000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:51.597Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Casimir V, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1962,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.61,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.65,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.45,"2":0.05,"3":0.14,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.73,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.47,"3":0.43,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.3,"4":0.63}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:51.733Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":97,"danger":["church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Casimir V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Casimir V defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"+4","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-14","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"+18"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 97: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":793,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3e5ef4f1-6a21-4a13-9e2d-b16bac0359b6","before":{"army":5,"church":97,"people":33,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":1.21,"people":0.93,"treasury":3.47},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.39,"people":2.37,"treasury":1.65}},"tokens":2755,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":19},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-9,"people":-13,"treasury":18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":4,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:53.603Z","v":3,"id":"85ee26da-198d-4519-9b62-ca4b332b26b6","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.6682044259586515,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"blend":0.9525,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:53.603Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:53.760Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.09},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.86,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:55.588Z","v":3,"id":"817f826d-beb1-485a-9909-0dd1e2dc18eb","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.46935144199908074,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":54,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":53},"blend":0.9624999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:55.588Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.79,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":245},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:55.834Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.17,"church":2.04,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":1.82,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":245},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:57.591Z","v":3,"id":"a84b0a44-88fc-4670-be17-a6dee71e0fa4","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.28607387565047127,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.87,"year":3,"after":{"army":45,"church":47,"people":41,"treasury":41},"blend":0.39699999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:57.591Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.74,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.57,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.85,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.69,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:57.796Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:40:59.591Z","v":3,"id":"39d7c6bf-cbb6-4704-ad68-c4a4849bfe50","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7469134992841773,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.96,"year":4,"after":{"army":47,"church":52,"people":49,"treasury":44},"blend":0.43749999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:59.591Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.64,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.53,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.47,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.35,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.78,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.64,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:40:59.752Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:01.596Z","v":3,"id":"dbaa57ac-dc61-4335-8b73-60b5e3959ab6","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.4608601946148241,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.98,"year":5,"after":{"army":40,"church":54,"people":45,"treasury":41},"blend":0.48499999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:01.596Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.16,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.24,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.41,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:01.814Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":47,"church":52,"people":49,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":2.08,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":1.75,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":3,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:03.607Z","v":3,"id":"5ac53a3c-592b-43b2-9c19-911f89fe46d7","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7295275256281251,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.03,"year":6,"after":{"army":41,"church":54,"people":54,"treasury":40},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:03.607Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.61,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.24,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.03,"4":0.93}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.59,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:03.771Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":45,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-1","people":"-16","treasury":"+22"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":40,"church":54,"people":45,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.88,"people":0.64,"treasury":3.87},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.93,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2638,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":22},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:05.604Z","v":3,"id":"fa1b6d0d-1d66-468a-bf94-3f0e503610ef","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.552027375629129,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":42,"church":57,"people":60,"treasury":42},"blend":0.46099999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:05.604Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":54,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.73,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.8,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.62,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:05.803Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":54,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":41,"church":54,"people":54,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.98,"church":1.06,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.14,"people":2.39,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:07.608Z","v":3,"id":"5698a4b8-19ce-40d1-93e7-2632c5ae71e4","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.23881757757186217,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.96,"year":8,"after":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":47,"treasury":38},"blend":0.44299999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:07.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":60,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.33,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.72,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.54,"2":0.19,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.44,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.18,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":202},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:07.811Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":42,"church":57,"people":60,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.6,"people":0.81,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.3,"people":2.69,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":202},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:09.594Z","v":3,"id":"5adfe42b-52cf-4633-81a1-531e9a57a41a","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8346851346418049,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.65,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":40},"blend":0.298,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:09.594Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":47,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.75,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.66,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.8,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.09,"3":0.86,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.6,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.22,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:09.807Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":47,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.43,"church":1.56,"people":0.72,"treasury":0.82},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.12,"people":2.87,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-15,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.3,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:11.606Z","v":3,"id":"cf8d37fe-06c2-4f92-8fd8-9c0a14988a72","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.08074331104064436,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0,"year":10,"after":{"army":41,"church":55,"people":59,"treasury":43},"blend":0.011000000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:11.606Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":58,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.6,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.56,"2":0.23,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.46,"2":0.08,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.48,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.74,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.56,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:11.809Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":58,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-11","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":39,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.3,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":1.91,"people":2,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:13.608Z","v":3,"id":"eb238412-6269-4030-a11c-95fe1e3e2805","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.259026826958793,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":39,"church":52,"people":48,"treasury":41},"blend":0.473,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:13.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":59,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.12,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:13.766Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":59,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":41,"church":55,"people":59,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.64,"people":1,"treasury":1.74},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.95,"people":2.72,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:15.611Z","v":3,"id":"50c02684-b15e-4fea-bf52-b93a0ba75e90","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.6899163604147298,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.23,"year":12,"after":{"army":40,"church":63,"people":56,"treasury":42},"blend":0.1365,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:15.611Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":48,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.14,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.36,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:15.768Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":48,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+10","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-2","church":"-9","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":39,"church":52,"people":48,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.28,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.92},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.81,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":1,"church":11,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:17.590Z","v":3,"id":"af6610eb-3695-4fd0-8d29-87e8372502a2","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.17119429680102072,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0,"year":13,"after":{"army":41,"church":65,"people":60,"treasury":46},"blend":0.011000000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:17.590Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":56,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.8,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.67,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.64,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.8,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:17.757Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":56,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Decline":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":40,"church":63,"people":56,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.79,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.05,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:19.595Z","v":3,"id":"6e8d89d1-dddf-4524-a204-011cc10b900c","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.15929099337198727,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.05,"year":14,"after":{"army":41,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":43},"blend":0.47900000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:19.595Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.48,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.96,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.4,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.36,"3":0.51,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:19.761Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Return it":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":41,"church":65,"people":60,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":2.47,"people":3,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.55,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.4}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":13,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:21.596Z","v":3,"id":"d474edd9-5c7c-45f4-b0cc-5d5279e4162c","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9919471735558336,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.04,"year":15,"after":{"army":42,"church":73,"people":74,"treasury":44},"blend":0.028999999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:21.596Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.7,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.43,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:21.748Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":41,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.96,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.45},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.01,"people":2,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:23.609Z","v":3,"id":"701aec88-04d4-4c89-abdc-49a5e7b53822","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9951170885631229,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.05,"year":16,"after":{"army":51,"church":72,"people":71,"treasury":42},"blend":0.05,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:23.609Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":74,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.95,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.27,"3":0.72,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.29,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.7,"2":0.14,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.61,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:23.818Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":74,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-9"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+8","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":42,"church":73,"people":74,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.74,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":2.7,"church":1.81,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":9,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":8,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:25.608Z","v":3,"id":"554044fb-bff9-4ba3-99a3-289c76b23460","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.6,"mock":false,"roll":0.9403043798108954,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.95,"year":17,"after":{"army":50,"church":73,"people":71,"treasury":42},"blend":0.7575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:25.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:25.792Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.6,"right":0.4}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":51,"church":72,"people":71,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.93,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.96,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.2}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:27.595Z","v":3,"id":"d7df8ca1-606a-48c2-8205-13567c69d6c2","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.42605771648219815,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.74,"year":18,"after":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":80,"treasury":42},"blend":0.33849999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:27.595Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.42,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.78,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.25,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.14,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:27.777Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":71,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-1"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-6","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":50,"church":73,"people":71,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.29,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.04,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:29.604Z","v":3,"id":"ec336260-7fe4-4137-9edc-b0ab896b0ada","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5262276060298277,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.31,"year":19,"after":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":72,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6839999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:29.604Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.72,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.5,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:29.756Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":80,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.85,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.03,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:31.602Z","v":3,"id":"1f24d9ad-929d-4299-96cd-8e7ac9f5d255","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9635831252850526,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.9,"year":20,"after":{"army":46,"church":79,"people":84,"treasury":22},"blend":0.45999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:31.602Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":72,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.79,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.37,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.19,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.98,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:31.770Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":72,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"+11","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":72,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.44,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":2.4,"people":2.9,"treasury":1.01}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:33.609Z","v":3,"id":"15e86f49-e410-4aba-a0c6-99e5d16d5bad","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.568961367820435,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":0.08,"year":21,"after":{"army":38,"church":75,"people":75,"treasury":10},"blend":0.5805,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:33.609Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Aldric II, a monarch who suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.72,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.21,"3":0.77,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:33.789Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":46,"church":79,"people":84,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.6,"people":1.14,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.14,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.76}},"tokens":2711,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:35.595Z","v":3,"id":"3fbdf610-320f-4754-85dc-a3f0bcfc08dc","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"paranoid","name":"Aldric II","wisdom":0.55},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3679043320677817,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.05,"year":22,"after":{"army":35,"church":65,"people":75,"treasury":0},"blend":0.0335,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:35.595Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.42,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.06,"3":0.78,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.33,"2":0.2,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.38,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.39,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:35.757Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":75,"treasury":10},"monarch":{"name":"Aldric II","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 55% of the time.","description":"Aldric II suspects treason everywhere and trusts no advisor twice.","temperament":"Paranoid"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-10","church":"+8","people":"-3","treasury":"-19"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-1","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":235}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9bae2b81-2e8d-4ae7-9489-c7f819e5cac2","before":{"army":38,"church":75,"people":75,"treasury":10},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.66,"people":1.74,"treasury":0.41},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.07,"people":1.94,"treasury":0.98}},"tokens":2710,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":0,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":235,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":8,"people":-3,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-1,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:37.603Z","v":3,"id":"0f693208-42a9-4a7b-a682-530859cb14ad","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.0010389617461312728,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.73,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5284,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:37.603Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.17,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.65,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.21,"3":0.76,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.56,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:37.742Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-16","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.63,"people":0.65,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.25,"people":2.71,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-15,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-16,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:39.595Z","v":3,"id":"1836dbbf-8c03-4551-8fc0-6498f616caba","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.57,"mock":false,"roll":0.4585141366405421,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.18,"year":2,"after":{"army":39,"church":57,"people":32,"treasury":46},"blend":0.2892,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:39.595Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.49,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.08,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.32,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.48,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:39.802Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+3","church":"-10","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":35,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.24,"church":1.18,"people":1.75,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.06,"church":2.75,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-10,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.15}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:41.591Z","v":3,"id":"35d05868-3c6b-4a70-8171-2757a9aa1dd7","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.7515067706258214,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":3,"after":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":33,"treasury":40},"blend":0.7323999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:41.591Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":32,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.74,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.53,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.04,"3":0.74,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:41.730Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":32,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"+9"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":39,"church":57,"people":32,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.71,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.72},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.93,"people":2,"treasury":1.39}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":9},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:43.612Z","v":3,"id":"32001fc8-2b91-4795-89f0-9ad421131659","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.18,"mock":false,"roll":0.2267572353867453,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":21,"treasury":55},"blend":0.7704,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:43.612Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":33,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.57,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.58,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.89,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.2,"3":0.72,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.77,"4":0.2}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:43.795Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":33,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-11"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-13","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":41,"church":57,"people":33,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.75,"people":0.89,"treasury":3.14},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.96,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-12,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:45.611Z","v":3,"id":"92e3cd95-ad2e-497c-9b7c-9d61156b63e7","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.18006132005847686,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.58,"year":5,"after":{"army":39,"church":52,"people":9,"treasury":53},"blend":0.4316,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:45.611Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":21,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.58,"right":0.42}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.39,"2":0.51,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.17,"3":0.73,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":205},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:45.816Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":21,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"},"Meet them":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":130}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":42,"church":55,"people":21,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.63,"people":0.88,"treasury":1.72},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.8,"people":2.68,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":130,"forecast":205},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:47.594Z","v":3,"id":"dafcf864-3b90-4bb2-9fd1-b9aeac22eab3","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.28},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.1034909553906449,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.78,"year":6,"after":{"army":36,"church":38,"people":0,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5616,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:47.594Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.51,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.51,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.83,"1":0.16,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.62,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.37,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.37,"2":0.1,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:47.775Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 28% of the time.","description":"Ursula III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-4","church":"-15","people":"-22","treasury":"-8"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"74a43ce3-17c0-4ddb-8f87-47a5e72f1375","before":{"army":39,"church":52,"people":9,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":0.72,"people":0.18,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.17,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-14,"people":-21,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-15,"people":-22,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.57,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:49.602Z","v":3,"id":"733b4f3e-2af0-4cff-8403-b5527f7fbe75","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.39195905382472196,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":45,"treasury":49},"blend":0.39849999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:49.602Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.34,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.45,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:49.786Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.85,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.32,"church":1.82,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.74}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:51.597Z","v":3,"id":"5e663ad8-ef13-4c59-bf12-1c742a30dca3","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6737913487639104,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":50,"treasury":56},"blend":0.353,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:51.597Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":45,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.54,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.44,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:51.725Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":45,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":45,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.8,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.05,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:53.608Z","v":3,"id":"f96cb482-c04f-4a31-b521-18d8613ada66","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.3475987393588036,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":0.71,"year":3,"after":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":58},"blend":0.8855,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:53.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":50,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.72,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:53.761Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":50,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.12,"church":2.06,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.27,"church":1.71,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.42,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:55.612Z","v":3,"id":"0d548825-7104-4df2-b594-5710224ef392","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.37849349733213433,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.12,"year":4,"after":{"army":49,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":48},"blend":0.15250000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:55.612Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.84,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.29,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:55.790Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":52,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.83,"people":1.28,"treasury":2.44},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.06,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:57.616Z","v":3,"id":"29a1ceeb-e7b9-4ead-ac75-60c821475edb","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8453529926225218,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.96,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":56,"people":68,"treasury":49},"blend":0.34249999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:57.616Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.46,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.62,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:57.768Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":228}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":49,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.65,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.04,"people":2.31,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":228,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:41:59.601Z","v":3,"id":"fd16692d-b249-40dc-ad59-3ea36b90c793","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5399794814615786,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.5,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":80,"treasury":46},"blend":0.19449999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:59.601Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":68,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.93,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.85,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:41:59.795Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":68,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-2"},"Meet them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":48,"church":56,"people":68,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.6,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.05,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:01.600Z","v":3,"id":"2b89f0f7-a3a7-4fec-b2e0-7dde1ba58132","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6282076772896181,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.1,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":71,"treasury":49},"blend":0.685,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:01.600Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.76,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.58,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.79,"4":0.08}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.74,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:01.787Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-10"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":777,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":49,"church":58,"people":80,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.77,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.18},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.19,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:03.600Z","v":3,"id":"6a5bdc20-63e8-42b2-8e04-e6dfa4dda67e","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.03521312956127498,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.01,"year":8,"after":{"army":40,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":48},"blend":0.14650000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:03.600Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":71,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.31,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.56,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.06,"3":0.61,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.37,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.67,"2":0.09,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.46,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:03.817Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":71,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-8","church":"+5","people":"-6","treasury":"-2"},"Stand":{"army":"+2","church":"-8","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":71,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.34,"church":2.4,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":1.37,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2580,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":6,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:05.615Z","v":3,"id":"d9a95bfa-7e87-4f65-9df2-54573b988eb5","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.30754803466458114,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.98,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":62,"people":61,"treasury":38},"blend":0.356,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:05.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":66,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.59,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.44,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:05.764Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":66,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":40,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.88,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.88,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.36}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:07.606Z","v":3,"id":"1ce2a1e8-78a2-4fa3-ab7d-bb9bab5cdf56","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.804016058527973,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":37,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":43},"blend":0.363,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:07.606Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":61,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.37,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.19,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.75,"2":0.25,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.4,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.51,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":263},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:07.869Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":61,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":36,"church":62,"people":61,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":1.74,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.24,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":263},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:09.604Z","v":3,"id":"09e2379b-d2a9-4ad8-936f-cc09361d5886","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5805529467613115,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.88,"year":11,"after":{"army":38,"church":67,"people":72,"treasury":41},"blend":0.3145,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:09.604Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.82,"2":0.11,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.54,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.92,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.22,"3":0.69,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.07,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.49,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:09.801Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":37,"church":66,"people":63,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.75,"people":0.99,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.99,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2636,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:11.599Z","v":3,"id":"2ceb7c41-ea29-4a31-99b5-02b840183ac6","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.4721988596407696,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.63,"year":12,"after":{"army":41,"church":68,"people":75,"treasury":40},"blend":0.8379999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:11.599Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":72,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.54,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.56,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.09,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.17,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:11.741Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":72,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-2"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":38,"church":67,"people":72,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.19,"church":2.03,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":1.25,"church":1.38,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:13.616Z","v":3,"id":"08531d11-c3d8-4cf7-92f1-4169e82404d8","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.42592436142887835,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":44,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":50},"blend":0.379,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:13.616Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":75,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.67,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.63,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.4,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.19,"3":0.77,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:13.770Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":75,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-10","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":41,"church":68,"people":75,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.46,"people":1.06,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.21,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2651,"applied":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:15.613Z","v":3,"id":"ae7a3788-8a5b-46aa-a495-94ea727893db","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.37789815167800533,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.95,"year":14,"after":{"army":35,"church":69,"people":70,"treasury":38},"blend":0.976,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:15.613Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.7,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.4,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.86,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.39,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:15.791Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-10","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":44,"church":72,"people":82,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.65,"people":0.93,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":2,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.56}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:17.600Z","v":3,"id":"f2d85484-7e38-4c38-8348-111f4d526bf1","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.21208491735111568,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.75,"year":15,"after":{"army":26,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":33},"blend":0.282,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:17.600Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":70,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.53,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.15,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.35,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.82,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:17.815Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"people":70,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+3","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":35,"church":69,"people":70,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":1.4,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":2.29,"people":2.58,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":4,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:19.604Z","v":3,"id":"62fc246d-ed93-4ca2-b323-9ecfcdec2a5a","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9966327742834318,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.99,"year":16,"after":{"army":27,"church":64,"people":65,"treasury":38},"blend":0.3595,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:19.604Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.59,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.66,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.43,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:19.847Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":61,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-10"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":26,"church":63,"people":61,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.87,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:21.607Z","v":3,"id":"ad935b25-e71e-49f1-8db2-302901b05c6d","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.16691373466686632,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.87,"year":17,"after":{"army":29,"church":62,"people":54,"treasury":50},"blend":0.532,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:21.607Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":65,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.53,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.95,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.17,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.02,"3":0.88,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:21.799Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":65,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-8"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+1","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":27,"church":64,"people":65,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.09,"church":1.72,"people":0.96,"treasury":2.9},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":2.08,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.36}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:23.621Z","v":3,"id":"4c2e7135-d361-484b-a795-8fc312142ab3","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.38652941184856515,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":18,"after":{"army":21,"church":62,"people":57,"treasury":39},"blend":0.5155,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:23.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":54,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.65,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.34,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.07,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.14,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.94,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:23.785Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":54,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-8","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":29,"church":62,"people":54,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.88,"people":2.16,"treasury":0.96},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.88,"people":1.33,"treasury":2.51}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-8,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:25.622Z","v":3,"id":"70d98af0-177c-4d7f-ada6-2e09bdb6f115","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4432499675053583,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.16,"year":19,"after":{"army":22,"church":64,"people":59,"treasury":43},"blend":0.06899999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:25.622Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":57,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.5,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:25.765Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":57,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":21,"church":62,"people":57,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.85,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.06,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:27.608Z","v":3,"id":"e173d3cd-fa45-47bc-afa1-072f3d718181","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.44671873834046494,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.44,"year":20,"after":{"army":19,"church":71,"people":72,"treasury":32},"blend":0.219,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:27.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":59,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"left":0.44,"right":0.56}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.33,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.77,"2":0.02,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.35,"3":0.55,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.92,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.44,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:27.751Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":59,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-4","church":"+6","people":"+12","treasury":"-12"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":22,"church":64,"people":59,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.45,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":2.47,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":7,"people":13,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.12,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:29.608Z","v":3,"id":"b16a7de6-df0b-4291-a875-3c673386dd05","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5193696654488646,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":20,"church":72,"people":78,"treasury":41},"blend":0.35,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:29.608Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.74,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.62,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.51,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.45,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.5,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.27,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:29.803Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-14","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-18"},"A modest bust":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":19,"church":71,"people":72,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.85,"church":1.7,"people":1.1,"treasury":0.51},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.69}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:31.625Z","v":3,"id":"befd2c97-cb9e-4930-b80a-ee61b76257ee","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.07827852789197798,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":22,"after":{"army":12,"church":71,"people":65,"treasury":37},"blend":0.3465,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:31.625Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.64,"2":0.25,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.25,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.46,"2":0.15,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.52,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.35,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:31.834Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":78,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-14","treasury":"-5"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":20,"church":72,"people":78,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.81,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":2.11,"people":2.49,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2678,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-13,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:33.609Z","v":3,"id":"26ad21a7-3854-4bd7-84a6-e921cc70479a","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6121579465858293,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.45,"year":23,"after":{"army":13,"church":76,"people":66,"treasury":39},"blend":0.1575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:33.609Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". 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It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":761,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":12,"church":71,"people":65,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.59,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.17},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.35,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:35.622Z","v":3,"id":"3bac1fd5-47d1-4d41-9fac-aeb2eaf3b445","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.050540270422265055,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":0.99,"year":24,"after":{"army":4,"church":69,"people":54,"treasury":24},"blend":0.353,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:35.622Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.42,"2":0.2,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.48,"2":0.23,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.25,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.43,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.17,"2":0.63,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.25,"2":0.39,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.37,"1":0.57,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.46,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":282},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:35.905Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":13,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":13,"church":76,"people":66,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.3,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.7},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":1.8,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2672,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":282},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:37.627Z","v":3,"id":"572950f6-a5b0-43fe-b14e-bcca70274d18","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.93,"mock":false,"roll":0.36618456895003715,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.51,"year":25,"after":{"army":2,"church":69,"people":50,"treasury":15},"blend":0.783,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:37.627Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":54,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"left":0.51,"right":0.49}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.28,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:37.779Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":4,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":54,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-5","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 4: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":4,"church":69,"people":54,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.93,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.18},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.9,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.01,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:39.612Z","v":3,"id":"a75bd0d1-39f8-4ff0-81a9-6141205535ac","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.65,"mock":false,"roll":0.499441049332791,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.24,"year":26,"after":{"army":1,"church":71,"people":57,"treasury":7},"blend":0.5065000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:39.612Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.39,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.71,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.05,"2":0.29,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.56,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:39.832Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":50,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-9"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.65,"right":0.35}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":2,"church":69,"people":50,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":2.11,"people":2.53,"treasury":1.28},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":1.66,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2720,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.31}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:41.611Z","v":3,"id":"959d818e-fd53-42aa-9d1c-4e5250bc88b3","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.65},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.6782841159748467,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.78,"year":27,"after":{"army":0,"church":69,"people":57,"treasury":0},"blend":0.37049999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:41.611Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.01,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.22,"2":0.06,"3":0.26,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.62,"2":0.22,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.44,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.7,"1":0.27,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.18,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.56,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.91,"1":0.08,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.65,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:41.756Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":1,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":57,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 65% of the time.","description":"Philippa I cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-10","church":"-15","people":"-20","treasury":"-23"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 1: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"c45d1530-2dc4-48a2-820d-803a8f171596","before":{"army":1,"church":71,"people":57,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":0.78,"people":0.36,"treasury":0.11},"right":{"army":1.22,"church":1.74,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2719,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-20,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.7}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:43.630Z","v":3,"id":"61df8b70-4592-42f4-ae99-7c50026c2ad4","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.7044088168378781,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.7,"year":1,"after":{"army":43,"church":52,"people":61,"treasury":50},"blend":0.35779999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:43.630Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.04,"3":0.68,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.73,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.82,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.4,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.65,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:43.784Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+6","church":"-6","people":"-15","treasury":"0"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-8","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.52,"church":1.53,"people":0.73,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":2.09,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":6,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-8,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.4,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:45.623Z","v":3,"id":"7c2d441d-aa3b-4a5b-889d-bb17c4eff4c9","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.15057971455173824,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":64},"blend":0.5634,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:45.623Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":61,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.55,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.97,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.22,"3":0.72,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.01,"3":0.84,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":261},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:45.884Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":61,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+8","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":43,"church":52,"people":61,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.13,"church":1.77,"people":0.97,"treasury":3.12},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.99,"people":2.67,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":261},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":8,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.48}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:47.609Z","v":3,"id":"fdafd88b-d4d0-4d38-a921-673bc62d6238","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.6052442827081406,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":56,"treasury":57},"blend":0.45130000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:47.609Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.66,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.71,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.47,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.53,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.17,"4":0.81}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:47.784Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"-8"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-15","people":"-14","treasury":"+21"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":46,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":0.74,"people":0.8,"treasury":3.77},"right":{"army":2.22,"church":2.46,"people":2.43,"treasury":1.37}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":6,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":21},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:49.611Z","v":3,"id":"fec6007a-2274-4b56-a080-e7a0433c7ea9","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.6080349869250634,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.98,"year":4,"after":{"army":58,"church":57,"people":54,"treasury":55},"blend":0.46670000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:49.611Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":56,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.9299999999999999,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.45,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.18,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:49.854Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":56,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"0"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+7","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:51.667Z","v":3,"id":"67185055-dbf6-4c82-8ea1-e0705b895ad8","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.804055189975623,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.97,"year":5,"after":{"army":58,"church":65,"people":61,"treasury":46},"blend":0.498,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:51.667Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":54,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1880,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.19,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.84,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.35,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.3,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.11,"3":0.46,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.1,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:51.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:53.626Z","v":3,"id":"595c3d96-cba5-4ec3-9fd2-805e03990fab","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.14454036368637602,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":49,"church":64,"people":56,"treasury":55},"blend":0.45310000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:53.626Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.43,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.03,"3":0.73,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:53.796Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":58,"church":65,"people":61,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.86,"people":1.52,"treasury":2.64},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.95,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:55.628Z","v":3,"id":"676e1d12-c386-46bb-87b2-8778df0a3b34","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.8841675569104626,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":73,"people":63,"treasury":46},"blend":0.4867,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:55.628Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":56,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1888,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.67,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.86,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.3,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.37,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.74,"4":0.23}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:55.799Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":56,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-1","church":"-13","people":"-11","treasury":"+14"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-2","church":"+8","people":"+6","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":49,"church":64,"people":56,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":0.88,"people":1.05,"treasury":3.18},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.63,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.19}},"tokens":2582,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-13,"people":-11,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":8,"people":6,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:57.630Z","v":3,"id":"1d833ebf-da21-4222-b233-4757c226317c","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.884697573790157,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.15,"year":8,"after":{"army":38,"church":84,"people":63,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5570999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:57.630Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.54,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.59,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.32,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.49,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:57.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+10","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+3","church":"-9","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":48,"church":73,"people":63,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.25,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.05,"church":2.81,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":11,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-11,"church":10,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:42:59.615Z","v":3,"id":"61806e5b-4646-4fd4-b75f-137b86067dd9","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.25673261359496946,"step":12,"trap":0.81,"want":0.97,"year":9,"after":{"army":35,"church":91,"people":58,"treasury":58},"blend":0.3977,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:59.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.81,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.14,"2":0.07,"3":0.48,"4":0.19}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.3,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.77,"4":0.09}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.45,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:42:59.783Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":38,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+6","people":"-6","treasury":"+11"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"0","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":38,"church":84,"people":63,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":2.46,"people":1.53,"treasury":2.88},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.67,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":0,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:01.613Z","v":3,"id":"7c6327ab-fe3f-422f-a4b4-44f531508ba5","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4621778529029297,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.57,"year":10,"after":{"army":25,"church":83,"people":44,"treasury":45},"blend":0.8178,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:01.613Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":91,"danger":["church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.73,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.37,"2":0.14,"3":0.13,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.78,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.75,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.72,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:01.750Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":91,"danger":["church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-11","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-14"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 91: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":35,"church":91,"people":58,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":1.27,"people":0.78,"treasury":0.86},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.09,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:03.614Z","v":3,"id":"ee0e747f-f72f-4d68-9f09-13810a899bbf","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7850975986008224,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.01,"year":11,"after":{"army":26,"church":81,"people":33,"treasury":55},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:03.614Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.55,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.36,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.96,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.18,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:03.771Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+9"},"Return it":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":25,"church":83,"people":44,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.08,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.76,"people":0.98,"treasury":2.76}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-11,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:05.613Z","v":3,"id":"2dafa012-eb37-420e-abc5-e20fba41a5c8","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.7303599139375991,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.96,"year":12,"after":{"army":25,"church":79,"people":31,"treasury":61},"blend":0.8125,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:05.613Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.48,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.11,"3":0.41,"4":0.16}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.68,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:05.773Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":26,"church":81,"people":33,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.75,"people":1.75,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.24}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.43}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:07.614Z","v":3,"id":"7a86dee2-6ed4-44fd-a044-0babbd29fd90","card":{"i":39,"tag":"greedy","left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it","message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.7160614455552641,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.69,"year":13,"after":{"army":24,"church":84,"people":44,"treasury":51},"blend":0.3065,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:07.614Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":31,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wall it off\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Treat it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.34,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.76,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.42,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.93,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.46,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:07.786Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":31,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Treat it":{"army":"-2","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Wall it off":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads in the poor quarter. Treating it costs gold. Walling it off costs bricks.","options":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Wall it off","right":"Treat it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":25,"church":79,"people":31,"treasury":61},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.47,"people":0.85,"treasury":2.05},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2.32,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:09.615Z","v":3,"id":"390ee370-44fa-4140-aa96-2573e381fbf0","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.47,"mock":false,"roll":0.9691602735490858,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.75,"year":14,"after":{"army":25,"church":83,"people":49,"treasury":51},"blend":0.5848,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:09.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.27,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.78,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.59,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.62,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.54,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:09.766Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-9","treasury":"-3"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}}}},"latencyMs":240}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":24,"church":84,"people":44,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.04,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.87,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":240,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-9,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.07}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:11.619Z","v":3,"id":"69c4a016-b99e-4fb0-a382-8a68320fcc43","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.09537982229344566,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":24,"church":80,"people":33,"treasury":65},"blend":0.9941,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:11.619Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.63,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.37,"2":0.3,"3":0.21,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.59,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.69,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.19,"3":0.79,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.01,"3":0.69,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.23,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:11.783Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":49,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Grant the monopoly":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-17","treasury":"+13"}},"petition":{"message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","options":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":25,"church":83,"people":49,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.68,"people":0.59,"treasury":3.1},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.07,"people":2.76,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-16,"treasury":14},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-17,"treasury":13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:13.615Z","v":3,"id":"8f483fc6-916d-4bae-8d1a-cee2cf85710e","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.6133111107367888,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":18,"church":77,"people":15,"treasury":80},"blend":0.9882,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:13.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.59,"2":0.27,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.42,"2":0.29,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.38,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.61,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.9,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.72,"4":0.24}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:13.784Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":33,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-6"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-19","treasury":"+14"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":24,"church":80,"people":33,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.66,"people":0.39,"treasury":3.16},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.09,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.5}},"tokens":2659,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-18,"treasury":15},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-19,"treasury":14},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:15.614Z","v":3,"id":"1a85eb7a-e4b8-4058-9eee-7fdc3d02943b","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.6528415839636195,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0,"year":17,"after":{"army":16,"church":75,"people":7,"treasury":90},"blend":0.5841,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:15.614Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1954,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.53,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.74,"4":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:15.825Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":18,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"danger":["people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":15,"treasury":80},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 15: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 18: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":801,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":18,"church":77,"people":15,"treasury":80},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.68,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.93},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.75,"people":1.26,"treasury":2.79}},"tokens":2755,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:17.615Z","v":3,"id":"1bf63702-7e9c-4769-a78e-5688be659a72","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9588325989157347,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.74,"year":18,"after":{"army":17,"church":75,"people":8,"treasury":90},"blend":0.3093,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:17.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.3,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.64,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.69,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.39,"2":0.24,"3":0.18,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.13,"2":0.65,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:17.800Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":16,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-10","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":795,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":16,"church":75,"people":7,"treasury":90},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.53,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":1.94,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2744,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:19.613Z","v":3,"id":"b2bcb3f9-721c-4836-b239-82798bc011d3","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.512984015521279,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.73,"year":19,"after":{"army":27,"church":74,"people":9,"treasury":81},"blend":0.2993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:19.613Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1957,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.58,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.1,"3":0.84,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.32,"2":0.55,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.68,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.59,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.1,"2":0.33,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.1,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:19.833Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":75,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":90},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-16","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"+5"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+9","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 90: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":803,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":17,"church":75,"people":8,"treasury":90},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.65,"church":1.64,"people":1.09,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":2.78,"church":1.82,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2760,"applied":{"army":10,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":9,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.47,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:21.615Z","v":3,"id":"6d885039-bd46-47f2-a8b0-6fd453bcb812","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"greedy","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.59},"know":0.47,"mock":false,"roll":0.20036939039657042,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.19,"year":20,"after":{"army":28,"church":63,"people":0,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3552,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:21.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.26,"2":0.26,"3":0.36,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.46,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.61,"1":0.27,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.49,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.9,"1":0.08,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.6,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:21.798Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":9,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 59% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III will agree to almost anything that fills the treasury.","temperament":"Greedy"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"0","church":"-12","people":"-18","treasury":"-22"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-4","church":"-1","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 9: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":776,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"ad96b473-b450-46da-81e8-1259a47a814e","before":{"army":27,"church":74,"people":9,"treasury":81},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":0.96,"people":0.53,"treasury":0.13},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.92,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2723,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-11,"people":-17,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-12,"people":-18,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.06}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:23.620Z","v":3,"id":"7c7ad56c-04d3-4ed0-b391-037c5f6f6297","card":{"i":37,"tag":"greedy","left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls","message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","speaker":"The Minister of Roads"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.6160029333845183,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.04,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":41},"blend":0.24499999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:23.620Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Impose the tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No tolls\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.64,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.53,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.97,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.67,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.13,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.21,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:23.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No tolls":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-10"},"Impose the tolls":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-12","treasury":"+12"}},"petition":{"message":"Tolls on every road. Every bridge. Every ford. The people would grumble, but they would pay.","options":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"speaker":"The Minister of Roads"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Impose the tolls","right":"No tolls"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":715,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.93,"people":0.97,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":2.17,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.2}},"tokens":2642,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-12,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.42}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:25.616Z","v":3,"id":"85468ba2-331f-4944-be3a-690f7e182d6a","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.16302517134371675,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.03,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":64,"treasury":43},"blend":0.054599999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:25.616Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.27,"3":0.67,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.74,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.65,"2":0.35,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:25.799Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+1","church":"+8","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":224}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.22,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.66,"people":2.14,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2657,"applied":{"army":2,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":224,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:27.631Z","v":3,"id":"8c2dc13b-1edd-4f01-b742-427ceb8b3767","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.27,"mock":false,"roll":0.9008528378622771,"step":12,"trap":0.5,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":65,"treasury":49},"blend":0.4014000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:27.631Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.5,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.05,"3":0.69,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.39,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.35,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.45,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:27.820Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":64,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"0","treasury":"+5"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-2","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":64,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":2.58,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.73},"right":{"army":1.74,"church":1.2,"people":2.01,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-9,"people":1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":0,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.45}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:29.618Z","v":3,"id":"c53afeea-b0a9-40be-9920-7264ca6dc9f8","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.578315896532638,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.03,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":61,"people":66,"treasury":49},"blend":0.09559999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:29.618Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.31,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:29.833Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":48,"church":53,"people":65,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.28,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.62,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:31.619Z","v":3,"id":"fdf7724e-a1d1-40fc-814b-4c86baea05c0","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6794299927968179,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.12,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":48},"blend":0.038000000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:31.619Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":66,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.69,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.64,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.85,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.62,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.32,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:31.766Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":66,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":272}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":48,"church":61,"people":66,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.48,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.9},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.28,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":272,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:33.618Z","v":3,"id":"d0cf1004-d1f4-43f5-8b0f-33e4b7beb832","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.5781795596123127,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":0.95,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":63,"people":85,"treasury":56},"blend":0.19560000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:33.618Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.73,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.05,"3":0.62,"4":0.12}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.85,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.41,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.41,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.55,"1":0.45,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.63,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:33.774Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-11","church":"+7","people":"-12","treasury":"-18"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":50,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":2.62,"people":1,"treasury":0.46},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.77,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":8,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":7,"people":-12,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:35.615Z","v":3,"id":"8324da56-c98d-4bf9-b6a0-4b2e499230ad","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.9886753284177112,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":42},"blend":0.9918,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:35.615Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1959,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.58,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.03,"3":0.59,"4":0.16}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.75,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.75,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.28,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.26,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:35.790Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-7","church":"+8","people":"-13","treasury":"-15"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"+4","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":765,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":50,"church":63,"people":85,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.42,"church":2.63,"people":0.95,"treasury":0.78},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.13,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2724,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":9,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":8,"people":-13,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":4,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:37.614Z","v":3,"id":"f84254fa-864c-4e64-8259-00f1f54521c5","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.9387402056221625,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":82,"treasury":40},"blend":0.24560000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:37.614Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.04,"3":0.68,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.77,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.12,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.5,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:37.796Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":73,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+8","treasury":"-3"},"Build the church":{"army":"-5","church":"+7","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":191}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":44,"church":72,"people":73,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.57,"church":2.61,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.2,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":191,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":8,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:39.621Z","v":3,"id":"a2d56d9c-cfdf-4e7c-a242-53dd2797f04f","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.48989122366959315,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.5,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":58,"people":77,"treasury":32},"blend":0.13100000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:39.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0,"probabilities":{"left":0.5,"right":0.5}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.68,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.42,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.75,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:39.869Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+1","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":43,"church":63,"people":82,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":2.14,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.17},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":1.48,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2692,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:41.619Z","v":3,"id":"dc94bffa-452c-4111-8da1-f77cdb0c9763","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.15,"mock":false,"roll":0.9803927502426271,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.23,"year":10,"after":{"army":40,"church":63,"people":80,"treasury":24},"blend":0.1644,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:41.619Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":77,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.59,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.72,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:41.798Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":77,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+2","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}}}},"latencyMs":158}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":39,"church":58,"people":77,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.66,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.33,"people":2.16,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":158,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.69}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:43.621Z","v":3,"id":"a33a2bba-3fa1-4d69-82d7-c79ff1fdf229","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5344512533684584,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.02,"year":11,"after":{"army":32,"church":54,"people":71,"treasury":19},"blend":0.8154,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:43.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.76,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.42,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:43.792Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":24},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+6","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-9","church":"-10","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":132}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":40,"church":63,"people":80,"treasury":24},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.19,"people":1.19,"treasury":1.47},"right":{"army":2.21,"church":2.51,"people":2.42,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":132,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-10,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":3,"church":6,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:45.633Z","v":3,"id":"8712eb5f-8d31-45fe-a005-f7baa52c4996","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.7079806062770777,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":12,"church":62,"people":62,"treasury":27},"blend":0.9262,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:45.633Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1968,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.1,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.51,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.14,"2":0.03,"3":0.49,"4":0.23}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.54,"2":0.11,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.71,"2":0.13,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.44,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.12,"3":0.68,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.53,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:45.839Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":766,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":32,"church":54,"people":71,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.24,"church":2.56,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.57},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":1.3,"people":2.27,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2734,"applied":{"army":-20,"church":8,"people":-9,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":7,"people":-10,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:47.617Z","v":3,"id":"a69fab4f-4c86-40a2-817b-013c6e601df4","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.4577559571491452,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.89,"year":13,"after":{"army":10,"church":64,"people":63,"treasury":33},"blend":0.9391999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:47.617Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Philippa I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.45,"2":0.46,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.51,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:47.754Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":729,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":12,"church":62,"people":62,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":2.09,"people":1.96,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":1.68,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2635,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:49.620Z","v":3,"id":"41e0c41a-54f5-436e-b262-8c462544dfee","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Philippa I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.1687790058280203,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":0,"church":68,"people":50,"treasury":17},"blend":0.18000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:49.620Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.68,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.58,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.17,"2":0.03,"3":0.5,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.64,"2":0.11,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.2,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.47,"1":0.51,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.13,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:49.831Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":63,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Philippa I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"+6","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-13","church":"+3","people":"-14","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":743,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"b7a212c0-cb97-4d05-9f78-b52a98bd6ea8","before":{"army":10,"church":64,"people":63,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.9,"church":2.28,"people":0.81,"treasury":0.56},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.36,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2668,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":4,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":3,"people":-14,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":6,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:51.658Z","v":3,"id":"14e0e20a-eaea-4bb0-abee-2a0faf94055f","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9128641785194156,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.89,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":47},"blend":0.19339999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:51.658Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.63,"2":0.29,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.53,"2":0.39,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.79,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.13,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.02,"3":0.86,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.32,"2":0.6,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:51.845Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-8","church":"-7","people":"-16","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.39,"people":0.67,"treasury":2.92},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.13,"people":2.85,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:53.621Z","v":3,"id":"1b7533d1-4d2a-46dd-88c9-f94fd7331d35","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.39018851213094496,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":49},"blend":0.20619999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:53.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.62,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.85,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:53.772Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":61,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":52,"church":53,"people":61,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.83,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.11,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:55.671Z","v":3,"id":"ece08035-2bd3-4537-91ee-435f094da010","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.463653920626397,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.08,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":67,"treasury":41},"blend":0.08,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:55.671Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.28,"3":0.68,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.03,"3":0.86,"4":0.07}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.27,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:55.911Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":63,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-13","people":"-9","treasury":"+11"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"+3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":53,"church":55,"people":63,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":0.92,"people":1.22,"treasury":2.95},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.65,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.28}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-13,"people":-9,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.85}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:57.616Z","v":3,"id":"70be414a-8321-403d-97d9-f3ad21dc69b2","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.36788347898430485,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0,"year":4,"after":{"army":55,"church":65,"people":71,"treasury":49},"blend":0.032400000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:57.616Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.66,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.97,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.42,"3":0.57,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:57.805Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":67,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+7"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":53,"church":64,"people":67,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.78,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.01,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.55}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:43:59.618Z","v":3,"id":"26bcaebf-8c92-451f-9148-14216fba25ca","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8669791172394159,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.03,"year":5,"after":{"army":56,"church":66,"people":73,"treasury":57},"blend":0.021900000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:59.618Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":71,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.71,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.69,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.42,"3":0.31,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.31,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:43:59.812Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":71,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-13"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":55,"church":65,"people":71,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.79,"people":1.22,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.98,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:01.621Z","v":3,"id":"8bfe3562-9c6f-4732-a33d-01c73a58ba52","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.7772753560640109,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.79,"year":6,"after":{"army":57,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":58},"blend":0.871,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:01.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":73,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"left":0.79,"right":0.21}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.71,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.65,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.21,"3":0.77,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:01.816Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":73,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":266}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":56,"church":66,"people":73,"treasury":57},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.84,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.87,"people":1.33,"treasury":2.74}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":266,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.58,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:03.622Z","v":3,"id":"5860919c-caaf-401f-abf6-6f1b84809b63","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9715318548252374,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.96,"year":7,"after":{"army":60,"church":69,"people":89,"treasury":63},"blend":0.20669999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:03.622Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.51,"2":0.45,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.43,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.75,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.73,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.09,"3":0.87,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.29,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":244},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:03.866Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":77,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+11","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":57,"church":65,"people":77,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.39,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.13,"church":2.24,"people":2.89,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2606,"applied":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":244},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":11,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:05.621Z","v":3,"id":"053a9db4-c3bf-4494-a587-d011904be3df","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.57,"mock":false,"roll":0.7847571329475878,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":61,"church":70,"people":88,"treasury":64},"blend":0.6517,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:05.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.29,"2":0.55,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.83,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:05.808Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":60,"church":69,"people":89,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.97,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.96,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.14}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:07.623Z","v":3,"id":"090b38a1-c974-4812-84b3-a38322aff667","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.2252562092506034,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.94,"year":9,"after":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":74,"treasury":84},"blend":0.9886,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:07.623Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.78,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.67,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.55,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.52,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.56,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.01,"3":0.3,"4":0.65}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:07.850Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+4","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-14","people":"-15","treasury":"+19"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":61,"church":70,"people":88,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.14,"church":0.85,"people":0.71,"treasury":3.56},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.43,"people":2.33,"treasury":1.79}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-13,"people":-14,"treasury":20},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-14,"people":-15,"treasury":19},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:09.625Z","v":3,"id":"e2c22f72-0c7d-401b-a6be-8392a073d7a2","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.20012983794094064,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.8,"year":10,"after":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":83,"treasury":73},"blend":0.15199999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:09.625Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1971,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.2,"2":0.54,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.1,"2":0.04,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.56,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:09.821Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":84},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+8","treasury":"-12"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":780,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":189}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":52,"church":57,"people":74,"treasury":84},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.71,"people":1.05,"treasury":2.36},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":1.93,"people":2.66,"treasury":1.03}},"tokens":2751,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":189,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:11.618Z","v":3,"id":"6da2570b-66b3-4236-98ce-615425d5694f","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.14169766699996367,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0,"year":11,"after":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":73,"treasury":63},"blend":0.8019000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:11.618Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.4,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.73,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.63,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.89,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.22,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:11.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":73},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+3","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":763,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":50,"church":57,"people":83,"treasury":73},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.44,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.06},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.22,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2715,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:13.635Z","v":3,"id":"485a7495-7cfc-4202-aa0b-c8bafc09b18a","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.84,"mock":false,"roll":0.11999166467686329,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.06,"year":12,"after":{"army":45,"church":42,"people":80,"treasury":68},"blend":0.6918,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:13.635Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":73,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.06,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.2,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.08,"3":0.6799999999999999,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.31,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5599999999999999,"2":0.39,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:13.871Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":73,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}}}},"latencyMs":254}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":46,"church":51,"people":73,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.2,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.53,"people":1.18,"treasury":1.46}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":254,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":-10,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.68}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:15.632Z","v":3,"id":"e59f9b2f-ba35-40cc-9229-b9c381f12f3d","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.55,"mock":false,"roll":0.5667352284728535,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.94,"year":13,"after":{"army":44,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":66},"blend":0.6241,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:15.632Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":159},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:15.792Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"left":0.55,"right":0.45}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":45,"church":42,"people":80,"treasury":68},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.75,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.91,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2660,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":159},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:17.619Z","v":3,"id":"1ab28aef-7177-4dae-99e7-3d6447ba0360","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.04801935139574942,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.59,"year":14,"after":{"army":39,"church":46,"people":73,"treasury":56},"blend":0.12019999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:17.619Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":77,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.46,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.22,"3":0.55,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.86,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.92,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":238},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:17.857Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":77,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":230}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":44,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":66},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":2.38,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.44,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":6,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":230,"forecast":238},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:19.626Z","v":3,"id":"71e4dd90-b310-4038-8493-7c71a5fb06af","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.41319608157216026,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.37,"year":15,"after":{"army":40,"church":47,"people":78,"treasury":64},"blend":0.09459999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:19.626Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":73,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.83,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.6,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.63,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.35,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:19.818Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":73,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":39,"church":46,"people":73,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.9,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.03,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.26,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:21.617Z","v":3,"id":"60c8850b-414d-406c-b0d0-73c4ed49338c","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.11805969276760742,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.83,"year":16,"after":{"army":42,"church":39,"people":59,"treasury":58},"blend":0.20629999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:21.617Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":78,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.19,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.44,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.65,"2":0.24,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.7,"1":0.3,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.02,"3":0.86,"4":0.08}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.35,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.87,"2":0.1,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:21.810Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":78,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-5","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-10"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+1","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":40,"church":47,"people":78,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":1.29,"people":0.3,"treasury":1.42},"right":{"army":1.57,"church":2.3,"people":2.99,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-5,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.65,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:23.637Z","v":3,"id":"ea7575a8-79d3-4eb2-b1a4-a4916d501897","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7306501627713791,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.22,"year":17,"after":{"army":44,"church":39,"people":69,"treasury":57},"blend":0.057999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:23.637Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":59,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.53,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.2,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.62,"2":0.1,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.55,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":243},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:23.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":59,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-10","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":718,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":42,"church":39,"people":59,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.19,"church":1.72,"people":1,"treasury":1.55},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":1.94,"people":2.74,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2639,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":243},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:25.636Z","v":3,"id":"6b3fb15e-90a3-4b58-8e6d-56244cdf0a4b","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5496906235532573,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.18,"year":18,"after":{"army":45,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":55},"blend":0.050399999999999986,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:25.636Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.55,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.25,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.84,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.31,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.19,"3":0.39999999999999997,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.47,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":330},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:25.966Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":69,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":44,"church":39,"people":69,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.42,"people":0.96,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":330},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:27.634Z","v":3,"id":"19ee74b1-18a5-4e16-9fa0-d8d2d31719f4","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.16,"mock":false,"roll":0.24217951777248548,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":45,"church":35,"people":76,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3196,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:27.634Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":77,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.38,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.58,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:27.824Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":45,"church":40,"people":77,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.48,"people":1.81,"treasury":1.98},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.57,"people":2.37,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-5,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:29.621Z","v":3,"id":"be633cc7-93fe-4f50-afdf-5466a9d83e42","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8392664676604094,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":47,"church":37,"people":79,"treasury":57},"blend":0.22239999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:29.621Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":76,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.7,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.91,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.8,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.79,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:29.793Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":76,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":45,"church":35,"people":76,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.73,"people":1.55,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.07,"people":2.19,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:31.623Z","v":3,"id":"6900dfa8-690d-4ed6-bc0f-6d22b92081df","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.4102662215628958,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":59,"church":38,"people":83,"treasury":48},"blend":0.23049999999999995,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:31.623Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":79,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.06,"3":0.92,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.38,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.61,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.32,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:31.795Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":79,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":47,"church":37,"people":79,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.8,"people":1.51,"treasury":2.22},"right":{"army":2.91,"church":2.04,"people":2.29,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:33.636Z","v":3,"id":"209c629a-96d5-4aee-a04a-abae3059ecec","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.1793131317139618,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":58,"church":36,"people":74,"treasury":46},"blend":0.9919,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:33.636Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.63,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.72,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.52,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:33.825Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-10","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":59,"church":38,"people":83,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.75,"people":1.13,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.02,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-10,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:35.620Z","v":3,"id":"779c9fab-5a70-4b4b-a45f-0e4c8a49e271","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7723540669987823,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.02,"year":23,"after":{"army":60,"church":37,"people":77,"treasury":43},"blend":0.0119,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:35.620Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":74,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.24,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.63,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.75,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:35.778Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":74,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":58,"church":36,"people":74,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.58,"people":1.07,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2,"people":2.13,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:37.640Z","v":3,"id":"273422b6-c85a-42e0-b5e4-712db5072cb6","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.1870273089716199,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.04,"year":24,"after":{"army":51,"church":39,"people":87,"treasury":53},"blend":0.048100000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:37.640Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":77,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.49,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.81,"2":0.08,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.81,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.2,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.68,"2":0.27,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.17,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:37.847Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":77,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-8"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-10","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":60,"church":37,"people":77,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.78,"people":1.29,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":1.15,"church":2.05,"people":2.76,"treasury":2.72}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:39.625Z","v":3,"id":"864252db-b9da-4374-8e9b-220ebf0ff4e7","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.35,"mock":false,"roll":0.3078138402587234,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":1,"year":25,"after":{"army":52,"church":37,"people":85,"treasury":51},"blend":0.4734999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:39.625Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.96,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.94,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.21,"2":0.63,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.2,"2":0.64,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":133},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:39.758Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"left":0.35,"right":0.65}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":51,"church":39,"people":87,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.78,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.71},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.95,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2649,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":133},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.3}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:41.624Z","v":3,"id":"28df2bc4-6241-4290-82cd-d46a7b378adc","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.7486276470805959,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.02,"year":26,"after":{"army":48,"church":32,"people":84,"treasury":55},"blend":0.7247000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:41.624Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.3,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.57,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.54,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.22,"2":0.56,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.18,"2":0.55,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.91,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.1,"2":0.38,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:41.778Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":52,"church":37,"people":85,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.91,"people":1.42,"treasury":0.98},"right":{"army":1.6,"church":1.54,"people":1.8,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-1,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:43.624Z","v":3,"id":"c45994ca-6898-4d46-b768-5025f35326fd","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.37817353831894196,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.36,"year":27,"after":{"army":47,"church":23,"people":72,"treasury":48},"blend":0.8784000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:43.624Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.24,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.68,"2":0.16,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.6,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.4,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.17,"2":0.38,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.11,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":218},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:43.842Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":734,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":48,"church":32,"people":84,"treasury":55},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.15,"people":0.93,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.3,"people":2.21,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":218},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":1,"church":4,"people":3,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:45.623Z","v":3,"id":"2f739041-21ab-45af-876a-3c354a69459f","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.9747866573198214,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.92,"year":28,"after":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":72,"treasury":40},"blend":0.3287,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:45.623Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":72,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.77,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:45.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":72,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":47,"church":23,"people":72,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.55,"people":1.59,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.12,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.23}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:47.620Z","v":3,"id":"729912dc-ca82-4a29-81ec-ed20f5d3803a","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.2,"mock":false,"roll":0.7603271435380439,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":29,"after":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":83,"treasury":30},"blend":0.352,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:47.620Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":72,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.3,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:47.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"people":72,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":72,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.83,"people":1.19,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.95,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.59}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:49.622Z","v":3,"id":"86c26421-cc65-472e-b22a-802c459f4207","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8850461066416451,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.99,"year":30,"after":{"army":48,"church":24,"people":78,"treasury":22},"blend":0.19619999999999993,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:49.622Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":258},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:49.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":83,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":726,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":47,"church":25,"people":83,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.97,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.87,"people":1.47,"treasury":1.24}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":258},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:51.638Z","v":3,"id":"52372a24-32f3-4407-92cc-1de0d75b2559","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.5828621038250381,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":0,"year":31,"after":{"army":49,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":14},"blend":0.6966,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:51.638Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":78,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.94,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.91,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.78,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.25,"3":0.74,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.68,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.25,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:51.802Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":24,"people":78,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-9"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":48,"church":24,"people":78,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.12,"people":2.72,"treasury":1.27},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.67,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:53.636Z","v":3,"id":"8232d611-50c7-411d-b416-76d0f5e3dff8","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.8,"mock":false,"roll":0.2649619823508065,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":1,"year":32,"after":{"army":48,"church":26,"people":89,"treasury":17},"blend":0.8380000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:53.636Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.62,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.45,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.75,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:53.831Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":14},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":49,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":14},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.94,"people":2.04,"treasury":2.14},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.89,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.6}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:55.638Z","v":3,"id":"7739cbd9-9fbb-4c7a-a1db-e9cd65110c3a","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8124116776027841,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.27,"year":33,"after":{"army":48,"church":20,"people":84,"treasury":9},"blend":0.8451000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:55.638Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35000000000000003,"2":0.33,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.54,"2":0.34,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.47,"2":0.17,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.71,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.5,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.58,"2":0.15,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.33,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:55.782Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":89,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 89: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":48,"church":26,"people":89,"treasury":17},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.43,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.23},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.41}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:57.620Z","v":3,"id":"51caa76f-2680-403d-9d4c-c00df11b88bf","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":0.81},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.5698949237309865,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.85,"year":34,"after":{"army":43,"church":19,"people":68,"treasury":0},"blend":0.8257,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:57.620Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Hildegard V, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1973,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.21,"2":0.03,"3":0.46,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.44,"1":0.55,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.19,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.64,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:57.762Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":20,"danger":["church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Hildegard V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 81% of the time.","description":"Hildegard V prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-17","treasury":"-11"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 20: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":811,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":188}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"408e9338-1f20-4cfe-bcf0-83d6b45e39f3","before":{"army":48,"church":20,"people":84,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.87,"people":0.58,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.25,"people":2.59,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2784,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-16,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":188,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-17,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:44:59.624Z","v":3,"id":"d03735b1-9a36-4259-bfb2-061d9302b268","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.06462794706964936,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.94,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":54},"blend":0.706,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:59.624Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.86,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.63,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:44:59.793Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"+3"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":124}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.63,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.21},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.14,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":124,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.41}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:01.625Z","v":3,"id":"9e7310ce-4b56-4102-9a69-026fcf13bdd7","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.9776427307318214,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.68,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":56},"blend":0.446,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:01.625Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"left":0.68,"right":0.32}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.31,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.67,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.63,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.87,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":456},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:02.080Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":249}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":49,"church":47,"people":45,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.69,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.14,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":249,"forecast":456},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.36,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:03.636Z","v":3,"id":"6f1ec4b9-5280-4f08-8b3c-4a6586a5ac6b","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9095698604730351,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":46,"treasury":56},"blend":0.6436000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:03.636Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.91,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.83,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:03.791Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.93,"people":1.93,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.02,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.91}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:05.623Z","v":3,"id":"2b0bd6ae-4353-4622-94df-76e7b447d272","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.5071391553147966,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":44,"treasury":57},"blend":0.6948000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:05.623Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.26,"3":0.71,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.82,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:05.822Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":46,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.39,"people":1.78,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.67,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":1,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.67}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:07.627Z","v":3,"id":"f98ffc69-cdb3-4cd0-b399-566cfa9b71cd","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6312974433363654,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.87,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":49},"blend":0.5928,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:07.627Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":44,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.78,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.78,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.58,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.8,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:07.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":44,"treasury":57},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.66,"people":1.02,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.1,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2673,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":13,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":12,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:09.628Z","v":3,"id":"c482c520-96aa-4e06-b05d-d4303b81434d","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6625481293662834,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.42,"year":6,"after":{"army":53,"church":48,"people":62,"treasury":44},"blend":0.2724,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:09.628Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.37,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.72,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.43,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.24,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:09.794Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":57,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"-7"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":51,"church":47,"people":57,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.52,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.44},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.04,"people":2.31,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.17,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:11.674Z","v":3,"id":"6b598ff9-0006-40c2-a1ad-437ecdee83ad","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5368569499969855,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":0.02,"year":7,"after":{"army":54,"church":49,"people":64,"treasury":41},"blend":0.0164,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:11.674Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":62,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.24,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.65,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:11.815Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":62,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":53,"church":48,"people":62,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.61,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2.12,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:13.628Z","v":3,"id":"926fdf51-d1cf-4a8a-ad0a-aec1984c027f","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.8,"mock":false,"roll":0.04430617934123471,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.15,"year":8,"after":{"army":55,"church":55,"people":77,"treasury":36},"blend":0.384,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:13.628Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":64,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.76,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.36,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.28,"3":0.66,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:13.823Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":64,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+7"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":54,"church":49,"people":64,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":2.39,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.57,"people":1,"treasury":2.61}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":13,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.61}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:15.625Z","v":3,"id":"eb46df83-3821-4a38-8554-073c5765e71a","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.46985935905855825,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.06,"year":9,"after":{"army":56,"church":57,"people":78,"treasury":37},"blend":0.0672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:15.625Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":77,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.9,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:15.791Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":77,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Drink it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Refuse the tonic":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","options":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":55,"church":55,"people":77,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.77,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.09,"people":1.98,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:17.627Z","v":3,"id":"b7b629bb-8d3e-49d6-8e1c-d523da3ced4b","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.7573293088925745,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":68,"church":58,"people":82,"treasury":27},"blend":0.6832,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:17.627Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":78,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.07,"3":0.9,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.41,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.55,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.32,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:17.819Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"people":78,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":56,"church":57,"people":78,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.81,"people":1.58,"treasury":2.35},"right":{"army":2.88,"church":1.99,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.08}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:19.629Z","v":3,"id":"f7d67b63-560f-427c-8cca-efc4a38fe5ca","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.023520797341568533,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.95,"year":11,"after":{"army":59,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":48},"blend":0.968,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:19.629Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.79,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.62,"2":0.02,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.64,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.53,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.54,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.21,"4":0.75}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:19.808Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":68,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+5","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-10","church":"-15","people":"-14","treasury":"+20"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":762,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":68,"church":58,"people":82,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":0.74,"people":0.85,"treasury":3.7},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.41,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.76}},"tokens":2700,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-14,"people":-13,"treasury":21},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-15,"people":-14,"treasury":20},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:21.641Z","v":3,"id":"000bc530-ead0-40c9-91c8-8ce70b345837","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.47930726285018865,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":65,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6508,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:21.641Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.85,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.79,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:21.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":59,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.85,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.08,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:23.628Z","v":3,"id":"1f917217-1961-4749-b5a7-7cec802d2ee3","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.524901149287428,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.98,"year":13,"after":{"army":57,"church":44,"people":67,"treasury":49},"blend":0.9692,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:23.628Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":65,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1874,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.82,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.86,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.48,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":126},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:23.754Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:25.628Z","v":3,"id":"3f275558-c2e4-43e9-9f72-d857171b640a","card":{"i":29,"tag":"greedy","left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse","message":"A monopoly on salt, Sire, in exchange for half the profits. The price of salt would, regrettably, triple. Salt is how the poor keep meat through winter.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.651990694002339,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.97,"year":14,"after":{"army":57,"church":48,"people":78,"treasury":45},"blend":0.6424,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:25.628Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the monopoly","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the monopoly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.54,"2":0.29,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.62,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.66,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.17,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.07,"3":0.73,"4":0.06}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:25.804Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":214}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":57,"church":44,"people":67,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.55,"people":0.62,"treasury":2.7},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.22,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":214,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-17,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:27.630Z","v":3,"id":"2cee1065-d308-4ba5-bbed-b04ddb8d3b11","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8779655399075543,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.95,"year":15,"after":{"army":58,"church":49,"people":79,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6188,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:27.630Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":78,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:27.798Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":78,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":57,"church":48,"people":78,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.86,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:29.632Z","v":3,"id":"a82c67e7-caf1-4bf0-8759-4bf8682a07cc","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.550830697250799,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":55,"church":46,"people":70,"treasury":42},"blend":0.6472,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:29.632Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":79,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.18,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.44,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":248},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:29.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":79,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":58,"church":49,"people":79,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.68,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.15,"people":2.53,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":248},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:31.627Z","v":3,"id":"8e645430-8f78-4e05-965a-52bb622ee9ae","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9155944025355314,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":57,"church":48,"people":81,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6408,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:31.627Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":70,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.43,"2":0.51,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.71,"2":0.06,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.85,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.69,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.29,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:31.811Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":70,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":224}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":55,"church":46,"people":70,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.48,"church":1.5,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.09,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":224,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:33.633Z","v":3,"id":"ca6feea2-8edc-424d-a498-ea753da6d67f","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.5774621910893882,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.16,"year":18,"after":{"army":58,"church":47,"people":87,"treasury":40},"blend":0.4588,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:33.633Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.5,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.8,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.31,"3":0.53,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.45,"2":0.13,"3":0.36,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.46,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":259},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:33.892Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them compete":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+5","treasury":"-4"},"Ban foreign cloth":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-13","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":57,"church":48,"people":81,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.61,"people":0.9,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.86,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2695,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":259},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":5,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.69,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:35.642Z","v":3,"id":"124ffeaa-f0f9-4ce4-aac7-2cecfe74bd4d","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.30338015598411827,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":1,"year":19,"after":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":82,"treasury":40},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:35.642Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.4,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.71,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:35.843Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":58,"church":47,"people":87,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.77,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.88},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.06,"people":2.25,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:37.629Z","v":3,"id":"6bb78296-e85c-425a-b4da-b78d4cc3aef5","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.43,"mock":false,"roll":0.2794105531534228,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":20,"after":{"army":55,"church":45,"people":76,"treasury":37},"blend":0.7948,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:37.629Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.75,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.39,"2":0.45,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.59,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:37.796Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":739,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":82,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.94,"people":1.41,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.93,"people":1.73,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2662,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.14}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:39.634Z","v":3,"id":"cbb761ec-2e01-4427-9cdb-c1f34165653a","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.28,"mock":false,"roll":0.4684692014720655,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":1,"year":21,"after":{"army":54,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":43},"blend":0.7408,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:39.634Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":76,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.77,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.24,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.77,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.09,"3":0.82,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.31,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.98,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:39.871Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":76,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":55,"church":45,"people":76,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.85,"people":1.36,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.89,"people":2.78,"treasury":1.02}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.44}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:41.630Z","v":3,"id":"acaccc39-f139-40ed-a90f-a92e435219db","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.3,"mock":false,"roll":0.8025516258184531,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":22,"after":{"army":55,"church":44,"people":68,"treasury":36},"blend":0.748,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:41.630Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.71,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:41.787Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":54,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.84,"people":1.67,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.93,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.32}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.4}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:43.649Z","v":3,"id":"fdb975f5-9f22-4e8d-90cb-5177c20ff744","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.26933801100419075,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":23,"after":{"army":52,"church":43,"people":69,"treasury":31},"blend":0.3564,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:43.649Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":68,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.29,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.11,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6,"2":0.14,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.09,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":257},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:43.906Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":68,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"-6"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":223}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":55,"church":44,"people":68,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.85,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":1.46,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":223,"forecast":257},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:45.648Z","v":3,"id":"106fe9dc-b3cc-4617-affe-b122e0e00097","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9830155904091682,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.82,"year":24,"after":{"army":49,"church":48,"people":82,"treasury":20},"blend":0.5391999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:45.648Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":69,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.22,"3":0.39999999999999997,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.66,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.37,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.91,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.28,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:45.821Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":69,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-12"},"Send the troops":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-19","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":52,"church":43,"people":69,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.04,"church":1.25,"people":0.38,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":1.67,"church":2.32,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-19,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:47.650Z","v":3,"id":"560671b5-2dd0-4fb8-bb21-823cfdfb11c9","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.36},"know":0.67,"mock":false,"roll":0.24987345963444008,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":0.02,"year":25,"after":{"army":37,"church":53,"people":69,"treasury":0},"blend":0.254,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:47.650Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1952,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.75,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.22,"2":0.05,"3":0.56,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.22,"1":0.71,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.21,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.43,"3":0.56,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.86,"1":0.14,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.28,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:47.833Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 36% of the time.","description":"Osric I prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-13","church":"+4","people":"-14","treasury":"-22"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":783,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.67,"right":0.33}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"1fc539b0-8a8b-4bb8-80c7-b1a3ea859804","before":{"army":49,"church":48,"people":82,"treasury":20},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.94,"church":2.31,"people":0.87,"treasury":0.15},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.45,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.7}},"tokens":2735,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":5,"people":-13,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.34}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:49.635Z","v":3,"id":"e7d3014f-d937-49e2-a856-ca48071d86af","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.370968773099287,"step":12,"trap":0.87,"want":0.95,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"blend":0.2826,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:49.635Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.87,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.53,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.82,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.91,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":242},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:49.876Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.66,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.6},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.06,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":242},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:51.646Z","v":3,"id":"c536157a-65af-491c-b362-d7db6cf1d46f","card":{"i":10,"tag":"vain","left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four","message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","speaker":"The Playwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.46908437334746167,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.4,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":56,"people":56,"treasury":52},"blend":0.1302,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:51.646Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the play\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rewrite act four\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.63,"3":0.33,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":184},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:51.830Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the play":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"-6"},"Rewrite act four":{"army":"+2","church":"+3","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"My new play has a wise king in it. The wise king is you, Sire, though the wise king dies in act four. It is a tragedy.","options":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"speaker":"The Playwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the play","right":"Rewrite act four"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":49,"church":52,"people":54,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.61,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.46},"right":{"army":2.15,"church":2.29,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":184},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:53.645Z","v":3,"id":"3c9c0d44-ec68-4df7-bfb8-0c47ce647bc6","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.28,"mock":false,"roll":0.5171255629982368,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.22,"year":3,"after":{"army":53,"church":63,"people":57,"treasury":53},"blend":0.2626,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:53.645Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":56,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.4,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:53.827Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":56,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":52,"church":56,"people":56,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.47,"people":1.64,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.51,"people":2.02,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.44}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:55.651Z","v":3,"id":"36bf7992-e275-4b9a-9c08-cba2b9511851","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.3669862307234535,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":57,"treasury":51},"blend":0.3155,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:55.651Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":57,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.35,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.61,"2":0.27,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.47,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.51,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.53,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.38,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.66,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:55.875Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":57,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","There was no ford":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"},"Record it truthfully":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":721,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":53,"church":63,"people":57,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.78,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":1.93,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:57.650Z","v":3,"id":"d40d716b-1c19-43a7-89af-bba62a39bc3a","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8982919735836008,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":67,"people":63,"treasury":60},"blend":0.3155,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:57.650Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":57,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.66,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.44,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.9,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.7,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":227},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:57.878Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":57,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":218}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":48,"church":63,"people":57,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.53,"people":1.22,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.29,"people":2.44,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":218,"forecast":227},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:45:59.638Z","v":3,"id":"5352ac25-0302-44fb-bca5-10909bf20554","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9579872252548085,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":0.99,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":66,"treasury":65},"blend":0.2942,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:59.638Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":63,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.21,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.73,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.4,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.67,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.44,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:45:59.874Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":63,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+2","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":67,"people":63,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.87,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.23,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":3,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:01.641Z","v":3,"id":"6803226e-f758-4ec0-b7ae-d9cd97ff2018","card":{"i":8,"tag":"vain","left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays","message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","speaker":"The Mint Master"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7903234784507378,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.97,"year":7,"after":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"blend":0.30260000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:01.641Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":66,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Strike a new coin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The chin stays\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.4,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.68,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.56,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.46,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":225},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:01.866Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":66,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","The chin stays":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"+2","treasury":"+5"},"Strike a new coin":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your face on the coin has been called 'jowly'. A new die is costly, but the chin could be improved.","options":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"speaker":"The Mint Master"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Strike a new coin","right":"The chin stays"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":66,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.87,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.91,"people":2.2,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":225},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":2,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:03.654Z","v":3,"id":"095bc11b-6830-411f-8bcd-3764d7da54f0","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.37858752884317015,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.64,"year":8,"after":{"army":59,"church":71,"people":66,"treasury":71},"blend":0.22110000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:03.654Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.32,"3":0.67,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.36,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.71,"2":0.17,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:03.812Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build the fleet":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"0","treasury":"-8"},"Keep the army funded":{"army":"+8","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","options":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"speaker":"The Shipwright"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":137}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":71,"people":69,"treasury":71},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.77,"people":2,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":2.66,"church":1.89,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":9,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":137,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:05.653Z","v":3,"id":"34349b02-6f55-4b48-a9e9-9c4cd3a8f7aa","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.08466193037302494,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.76,"year":9,"after":{"army":59,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":78},"blend":0.831,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:05.653Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":66,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.79,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.2,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.11,"3":0.7,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.18,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.22,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.51,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:05.820Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":66,"treasury":71},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":59,"church":71,"people":66,"treasury":71},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.13,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.48},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.57,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":5,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":7,"people":-9,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:07.643Z","v":3,"id":"6a8bd9f4-1ccd-4d6a-a6e2-17bd42e94a01","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.74,"mock":false,"roll":0.8691691960095667,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.11,"year":10,"after":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":74,"treasury":75},"blend":0.5573,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:07.643Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.79,"2":0.19,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.48,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.09,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.3,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:07.806Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":78},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+10","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":59,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":78},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.3,"church":1.21,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.8,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":11,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":10,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.47}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:09.640Z","v":3,"id":"317925d4-814f-4622-bf9f-2a0da6f66cbf","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.40400834952159537,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.75,"year":11,"after":{"army":50,"church":74,"people":76,"treasury":77},"blend":0.8707,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:09.640Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":74,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.8,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:09.820Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":74,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":49,"church":73,"people":74,"treasury":75},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.03,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.61,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.27}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:11.636Z","v":3,"id":"3ad8cc8d-088b-40bd-9e94-ee08a9de71e9","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.39,"mock":false,"roll":0.8734833479103241,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.01,"year":12,"after":{"army":51,"church":65,"people":78,"treasury":74},"blend":0.2798,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:11.636Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":76,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.52,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.09,"3":0.64,"4":0.09}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.35,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.68,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.42,"3":0.33,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.62,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:11.778Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":76,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-8","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"},"Stand":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":74,"people":76,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":2.61,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.13,"people":2.08,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-9,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.22}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:13.637Z","v":3,"id":"de835caa-ad4f-4562-acc4-07613c86c76a","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9152059940299855,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":50,"church":66,"people":82,"treasury":79},"blend":0.2942,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:13.637Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":78,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.64,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.83,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.73,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.57,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:13.837Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":78,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-9"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":51,"church":65,"people":78,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.81,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.24},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:15.635Z","v":3,"id":"22708022-2145-4e57-b034-1b5aafd7fd39","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":0.71},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.8016729321900533,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.52,"year":14,"after":{"army":39,"church":64,"people":64,"treasury":100},"blend":0.8537,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:15.635Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Theobald IV, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1949,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.56,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.66,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.31,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.08,"2":0.21,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0,"3":0.02,"4":0.97}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.11,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:15.831Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":79},"monarch":{"name":"Theobald IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 71% of the time.","description":"Theobald IV cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-2"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-19","treasury":"+23"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":{"edge":"high","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"311b2fdc-8e87-4684-807c-3bf96d9bd551","before":{"army":50,"church":66,"people":82,"treasury":79},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.96,"church":1.74,"people":0.39,"treasury":3.94},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.99,"people":2.51,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2713,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-18,"treasury":24},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-19,"treasury":23},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.05,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:17.641Z","v":3,"id":"1ea814d7-d314-47db-8b0c-cf8456826525","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9232755625792035,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":54,"people":56,"treasury":58},"blend":0.8176000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:17.641Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.64,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.62,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.46,"3":0.47,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.26,"3":0.68,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":203},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:17.844Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-9","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+5","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":719,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":1.54,"people":1.1,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.24,"people":2.42,"treasury":2.62}},"tokens":2648,"applied":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":203},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:19.645Z","v":3,"id":"56e5cd75-bee0-41e2-805f-8524a9484e92","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8958433888043722,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.95,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":54,"people":55,"treasury":63},"blend":0.7714,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:19.645Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":56,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.19,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.6,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.85,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.65,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:19.821Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":56,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":52,"church":54,"people":56,"treasury":58},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.94,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.93,"people":1.83,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:21.648Z","v":3,"id":"669ceceb-f3e2-44be-8770-20f35a8bf112","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.16516310644390764,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.93,"year":3,"after":{"army":43,"church":58,"people":41,"treasury":54},"blend":0.7552000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:21.648Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":55,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.46,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.24,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.05,"3":0.81,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.67,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.34,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:21.807Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":55,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-11","church":"+3","people":"-15","treasury":"-10"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"+9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":53,"church":54,"people":55,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.12,"church":2.29,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":1.14,"people":2.77,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":4,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:23.663Z","v":3,"id":"af54783e-c9d6-4365-99bf-27e56acf37da","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.7062719875916907,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.66,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":59,"people":42,"treasury":54},"blend":0.5365000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:23.663Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":41,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:23.814Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":41,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":43,"church":58,"people":41,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.77,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.99,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:25.657Z","v":3,"id":"aaf6e7e3-11eb-4310-b7cc-5d55909e8472","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.688334486769034,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.06,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":61,"people":52,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0714,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:25.657Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":42,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.18,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.76,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.1,"3":0.81,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.29,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":167},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:25.824Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":42,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"+6"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":44,"church":59,"people":42,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.8,"people":1.26,"treasury":2.46},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.06,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:27.662Z","v":3,"id":"15c98eab-9b66-47fd-b949-e87760efdd93","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.3283552308414037,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.15,"year":6,"after":{"army":45,"church":68,"people":53,"treasury":44},"blend":0.14429999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:27.662Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":52,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.33,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.82,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":217},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:27.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":52,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-6","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":45,"church":61,"people":52,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":1.27,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.52,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":217},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:29.641Z","v":3,"id":"c4533280-ac90-46a2-8d3c-324ec1b28067","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.10139763252826861,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":39,"church":65,"people":44,"treasury":33},"blend":0.8057000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:29.641Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.65,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.74,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.62,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.41,"3":0.54,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:29.851Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":53,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":45,"church":68,"people":53,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.67,"people":1.14,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:31.661Z","v":3,"id":"05754e01-fb7e-4687-af9f-d64bd2f089a1","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6672890070648407,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.57,"year":8,"after":{"army":39,"church":65,"people":44,"treasury":32},"blend":0.4617,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:31.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":44,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"left":0.57,"right":0.43}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.88,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.9,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.85,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.22,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:31.805Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":44,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-2"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":121}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":39,"church":65,"people":44,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":1.94,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":1.94,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.87}},"tokens":2618,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":121,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.14,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:33.660Z","v":3,"id":"a0b5e982-d935-4323-9834-0acfc5209635","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4665375669885208,"step":12,"trap":0.8,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":35,"church":61,"people":36,"treasury":21},"blend":0.8138000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:33.660Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":44,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.8,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.39,"2":0.29,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.25,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.63,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.69,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.52,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.78,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.55,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:33.796Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":44,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":39,"church":65,"people":44,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.56,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":2.04,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:35.661Z","v":3,"id":"8d599634-c362-45b5-bef1-b9bc3c886181","card":{"i":13,"tag":"vain","left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly","message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","speaker":"The Poet Laureate"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.06557021171676847,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":29,"church":59,"people":28,"treasury":11},"blend":0.8038000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:35.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":36,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the reading\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Publish it quietly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.38,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.47,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.54,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:35.806Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":36,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Hold the reading":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Publish it quietly":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have composed an epic of your deeds. It runs to forty thousand lines. The reading will take four days, and the court must attend.","options":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"speaker":"The Poet Laureate"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the reading","right":"Publish it quietly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":711,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":242}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":35,"church":61,"people":36,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":1.71,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":2.01,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2628,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":242,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:37.663Z","v":3,"id":"e643537a-e8f9-4561-9f31-53c44ac27379","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Godric V","wisdom":0.19},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.671434897743757,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.99,"year":11,"after":{"army":16,"church":58,"people":11,"treasury":0},"blend":0.8019000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:37.663Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Godric V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1956,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.66,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.56,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.19,"2":0.02,"3":0.43,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.45,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.72,"2":0.09,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.19,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.94,"1":0.06,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.12,"2":0.29,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:37.912Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":28,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Godric V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 19% of the time.","description":"Godric V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-14","church":"-2","people":"-18","treasury":"-23"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+5","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bad4595c-d20c-4267-b509-cbf3137defb2","before":{"army":29,"church":59,"people":28,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.83,"church":1.83,"people":0.49,"treasury":0.06},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.22,"people":2.41,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2720,"applied":{"army":-13,"church":-1,"people":-17,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-14,"church":-2,"people":-18,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":5,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:39.648Z","v":3,"id":"c2fe25ad-ecf2-4d2b-9fa7-1fcfb5c7c39d","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.21041626715343686,"step":12,"trap":0.45,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":58,"church":43,"people":35,"treasury":50},"blend":0.7596999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:39.648Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.45,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.02,"3":0.65,"4":0.09}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.09,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.7,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.74,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.16,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.22,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.46,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:39.798Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+7","church":"-8","people":"-16","treasury":"-1"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-10","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.58,"church":1.34,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":1.16,"church":2.08,"people":2.67,"treasury":2.06}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":7,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:41.649Z","v":3,"id":"c436ee79-c3c8-478b-97d3-f5d065dfd41f","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.4221433946341282,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.93,"year":2,"after":{"army":59,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9273000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:41.649Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":35,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.48,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.81,"2":0.19,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.6,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:41.786Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":35,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"+3"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":58,"church":43,"people":35,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":1.98,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.87,"people":1.82,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.86,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:43.663Z","v":3,"id":"073e9b4a-28cd-4690-9801-5a890465f622","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8877774153534992,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":60,"church":46,"people":45,"treasury":49},"blend":0.7327,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:43.663Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.14,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.54,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.37,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.78,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.33,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:43.808Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":38,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"-14"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":59,"church":44,"people":38,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.45,"people":0.96,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.07,"people":2.53,"treasury":2.6}},"tokens":2589,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:45.656Z","v":3,"id":"ec9e6b61-e6a3-4090-b1cc-48b4dfe7e03a","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6860478077803995,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.81,"year":4,"after":{"army":62,"church":47,"people":46,"treasury":50},"blend":0.5967,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:45.656Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":45,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:45.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":45,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"},"See him today":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":60,"church":46,"people":45,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.8,"people":1.52,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.98,"people":1.99,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:47.648Z","v":3,"id":"5d2709b6-625f-4d0c-99cf-e83f97dd3f91","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.026023541717066,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.13,"year":5,"after":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":38},"blend":0.09759999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:47.648Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.71,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.44,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.69,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.75,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.35,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:47.856Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":47,"people":46,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+2","church":"+2","people":"+10","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":62,"church":47,"people":46,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.43,"people":0.81,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":2.14,"church":2.13,"people":2.83,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":10,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:49.653Z","v":3,"id":"d78f58b5-14dd-4e98-9e2a-b9a356015ec4","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9611938442562213,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.06,"year":6,"after":{"army":61,"church":42,"people":37,"treasury":41},"blend":0.0465,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:49.653Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.74,"2":0.16,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.58,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.88,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.47,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.79,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:49.842Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":58,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Decline":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":264}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":58,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.55,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":2.18,"church":2.01,"people":2.23,"treasury":2.17}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":264,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:51.648Z","v":3,"id":"96c390f5-8cfe-48a0-b129-a2a5b15a78d8","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9218880071877353,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.01,"year":7,"after":{"army":64,"church":40,"people":31,"treasury":43},"blend":0.0181,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:51.648Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":37,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.32,"3":0.41,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.2,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.55,"2":0.17,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.87,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.27,"2":0.32,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":281},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:51.930Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":37,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"+1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":61,"church":42,"people":37,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.64,"people":1.35,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":1.77,"people":1.38,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":281},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:53.645Z","v":3,"id":"82c6b7fd-ed34-40ee-8ddc-6976f3a834a2","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6416558913544235,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":50,"church":30,"people":17,"treasury":27},"blend":0.7327,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:53.645Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":31,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.67,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.76,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.73,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.55,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.54,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.48,"3":0.5,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:53.812Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":64,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":31,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-15","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":64,"church":40,"people":31,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.79,"church":1.11,"people":0.73,"treasury":0.56},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":2.04,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.48}},"tokens":2590,"applied":{"army":-14,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:55.649Z","v":3,"id":"50c27a33-23a7-4dc0-9b30-8cd5903139ac","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9207622576293633,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":32,"people":21,"treasury":23},"blend":0.73,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:55.649Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.49,"2":0.14,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.65,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.5,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.73,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":216},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:55.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-5","church":"-11","people":"-16","treasury":"-12"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":209}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":50,"church":30,"people":17,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.08,"people":0.68,"treasury":1.02},"right":{"army":1.89,"church":2.08,"people":2.29,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2670,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":209,"forecast":216},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-11,"people":-16,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:57.651Z","v":3,"id":"b6ee43ee-7f1c-40fa-833d-590d62324236","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5964480448827367,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.08,"year":10,"after":{"army":51,"church":37,"people":22,"treasury":23},"blend":0.0638,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:57.651Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":21,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.24,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.16,"3":0.63,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.57,"2":0.3,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.47,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.6,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.8,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":239},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:57.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":32,"people":21,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-9","church":"+6","people":"-7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":50,"church":32,"people":21,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":2.48,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.13},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.3,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":239},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":6,"people":-7,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:46:59.649Z","v":3,"id":"b6c617bc-dc9d-4496-b9b5-cff4cb7d6f03","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4627491261076191,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.91,"year":11,"after":{"army":47,"church":30,"people":11,"treasury":17},"blend":0.667,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:59.649Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":22,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.73,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.34,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.88,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.74,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.29,"3":0.66,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.75,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:46:59.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"people":22,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":51,"church":37,"people":22,"treasury":23},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.36,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.12,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:01.653Z","v":3,"id":"e55bb887-cb8a-4b83-bfa6-b72375b1e1e9","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.9597829708114525,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.13,"year":12,"after":{"army":52,"church":23,"people":3,"treasury":7},"blend":0.3352,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:01.653Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.71,"2":0.17,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.43,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.5,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.54,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.55,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.33,"2":0.45,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.7,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":254},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:01.906Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+4","church":"-8","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":47,"church":30,"people":11,"treasury":17},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.82,"people":1.56,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":2.34,"church":1.35,"people":1.27,"treasury":1.09}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-7,"people":-8,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":254},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.74,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:03.659Z","v":3,"id":"c6fcbb3a-6ae6-48a9-b3b4-ec87fdc33db6","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7584736654134288,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.95,"year":13,"after":{"army":50,"church":25,"people":10,"treasury":15},"blend":0.6935,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:03.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.46,"2":0.34,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.54,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.57,"1":0.39,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.76,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.36,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:03.802Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":3,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-9","church":"-11","people":"-18","treasury":"-23"},"A modest bust":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 3: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":770,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":52,"church":23,"people":3,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.11,"people":0.48,"treasury":0.05},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":2.09,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.57}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-11,"people":-18,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:05.655Z","v":3,"id":"066be5ed-9a1b-4ec1-acc0-21bb4d56ebaf","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":0.27},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.35696142026935407,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.69,"year":14,"after":{"army":45,"church":25,"people":0,"treasury":0},"blend":0.5036999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:05.655Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Philippa IV, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1941,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.44,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.07,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.31,"2":0.06,"3":0.47,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.53,"1":0.45,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.8099999999999999,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.62,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:05.842Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":10,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 27% of the time.","description":"Philippa IV sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-1","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"},"Build the church":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"-18","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 10: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d9778227-ea36-4668-8b02-f5647cdf7761","before":{"army":50,"church":25,"people":10,"treasury":15},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.93,"people":0.49,"treasury":0.7},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.29,"people":2.84,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2716,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-15},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":-18,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:07.669Z","v":3,"id":"6672295a-7d81-4d6d-8f84-f093a63acf4d","card":{"i":7,"tag":"vain","left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit","message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.8146421139375235,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.84,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"blend":0.8932,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:07.669Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the invitation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go and sit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"left":0.84,"right":0.16}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.71,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.84,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.44,"2":0.56,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:07.809Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Go and sit":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-5"},"Refuse the invitation":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor invites you to his court. You would be seated below his nephews. His nephews are eleven.","options":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the invitation","right":"Go and sit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.95,"church":1.99,"people":2.02,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.84,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.68,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:09.652Z","v":3,"id":"1c714518-607a-4be9-9581-f97787aa4162","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.47,"mock":false,"roll":0.9939708096151827,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":58,"people":52,"treasury":53},"blend":0.17859999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:09.652Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.92,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.41,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.46,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:09.805Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-1","church":"-6","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.05,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":51,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.46,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.47,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.05}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:11.667Z","v":3,"id":"1907786d-ca6c-4813-a92c-c292e7ac1b47","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7753020415595617,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.92,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":59,"people":53,"treasury":54},"blend":0.5818,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:11.667Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.9,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:11.808Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":52,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":50,"church":58,"people":52,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":1.85,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.99,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:13.666Z","v":3,"id":"d3250513-a356-484f-a421-24dadf91f036","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4190407187137717,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":0.01,"year":4,"after":{"army":51,"church":60,"people":57,"treasury":56},"blend":0.01,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:13.666Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":53,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.45,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.7,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.72,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":306},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:13.972Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":53,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":245}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":51,"church":59,"people":53,"treasury":54},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.71,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2,"people":2.26,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":245,"forecast":306},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:15.651Z","v":3,"id":"f0de1f45-6106-47cb-ad33-cf92c950284d","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.5283390481438177,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.26,"year":5,"after":{"army":51,"church":61,"people":55,"treasury":68},"blend":0.2334,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:15.651Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":57,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1882,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.53,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.56,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.06,"3":0.9,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.09,"3":0.87,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:15.814Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":57,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":51,"church":60,"people":57,"treasury":56},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.5,"church":1.87,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.97,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.92}},"tokens":2568,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.62}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:17.670Z","v":3,"id":"51c6c2a1-75cc-4433-b516-8bbfd8142936","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.16275319721396886,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":59,"people":45,"treasury":64},"blend":0.6276,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:17.670Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":55,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.65,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.39,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.58,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:17.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":55,"treasury":68},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:19.656Z","v":3,"id":"228548c2-4c4a-400e-94f2-d6c7d197ca82","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.81,"mock":false,"roll":0.5804835830091322,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.02,"year":7,"after":{"army":47,"church":59,"people":45,"treasury":70},"blend":0.32020000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:19.656Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.63,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.36,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:19.836Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":48,"church":59,"people":45,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.97,"church":1.99,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.12},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.93,"people":1.91,"treasury":2.39}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:21.651Z","v":3,"id":"68adac55-2cd1-4bf2-b281-1e1206623bce","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6279647489767617,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":45,"church":58,"people":41,"treasury":67},"blend":0.6314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:21.651Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.81,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.84,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.54,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:21.819Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":47,"church":59,"people":45,"treasury":70},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.84,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.06,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.13}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:23.673Z","v":3,"id":"552cd13e-9142-40d8-a289-4c8ad5c4be1b","card":{"i":85,"tag":"any","left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide","message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4297542992801835,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0,"year":9,"after":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3762,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:23.673Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":41,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are ours\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the river decide\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.3,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.51,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.39,"2":0.13,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.8,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.16,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.82,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:23.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":41,"treasury":67},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","They are ours":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"},"Let the river decide":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The river changed course. Half the farms are now in the neighbouring kingdom. The farmers ask what they are.","options":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are ours","right":"Let the river decide"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":45,"church":58,"people":41,"treasury":67},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.78,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.65},"right":{"army":1.41,"church":1.54,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:25.656Z","v":3,"id":"89fd720e-4ffa-4819-9d3c-693146849105","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.008246397996376276,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":37,"church":54,"people":26,"treasury":53},"blend":0.6238,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:25.656Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.73,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.88,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:25.856Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":30,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-5","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":39,"church":53,"people":30,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.96,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:27.672Z","v":3,"id":"9c63f357-aa8a-4c5b-b403-10b9add3418f","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.09,"mock":false,"roll":0.4972188562706279,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.75,"year":11,"after":{"army":34,"church":59,"people":12,"treasury":45},"blend":0.4992,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:27.672Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":26,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"left":0.75,"right":0.25}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.07,"3":0.64,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.72,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.07,"3":0.9,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:27.866Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":54,"people":26,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+11","treasury":"0"},"Build the church":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"-15","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":37,"church":54,"people":26,"treasury":53},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":2.35,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.29,"people":2.92,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.5,"prudenceConfidence":0.82}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:29.659Z","v":3,"id":"32499934-1cc3-45cf-9ed4-ace7f041e057","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7849079024642007,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":34,"church":60,"people":22,"treasury":34},"blend":0.62,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:29.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.35,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.71,"2":0.12,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.1,"3":0.78,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.29,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:29.846Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":34,"church":59,"people":12,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.49,"people":1.01,"treasury":2.38},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":2.73,"treasury":1.04}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":9,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:31.671Z","v":3,"id":"378ce250-047c-4928-9d9c-6c9821cd8d7d","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3600246811052832,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":13,"after":{"army":31,"church":57,"people":14,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6238,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:31.671Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":22,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.63,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.91,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.31,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.86,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.7,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:31.812Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"people":22,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-9","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":183}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":34,"church":60,"people":22,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.63,"church":1.68,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.12,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":183,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:33.667Z","v":3,"id":"4af811c5-fc94-4731-9601-df19ef22ff08","card":{"i":22,"tag":"pious","left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown","message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","speaker":"The Sister of Charity"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.480218521397497,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.98,"year":14,"after":{"army":30,"church":67,"people":18,"treasury":23},"blend":0.9648,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:33.667Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the house\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it under the crown\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.82,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.87,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.05,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.33,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.31,"3":0.41,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:33.877Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":14,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the house":{"army":"-2","church":"+9","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"},"Build it under the crown":{"army":"-1","church":"-12","people":"+1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The orphans need a house. The church will build it if the crown pays for it and the church owns it.","options":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"speaker":"The Sister of Charity"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay for the house","right":"Build it under the crown"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":31,"church":57,"people":14,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":2.79,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.05},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":1.04,"people":2.1,"treasury":1.14}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-12,"people":1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:35.654Z","v":3,"id":"2036ef9f-515b-41d7-9c36-0c0bc9e0750f","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.847519158476832,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":40,"church":68,"people":24,"treasury":13},"blend":0.62,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:35.654Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.88,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.12,"3":0.83,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.44,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.71,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.7,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.43,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.15,"2":0.33,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:35.843Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":18,"treasury":23},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-7","people":"-13","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+9","church":"0","people":"+5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":264}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":30,"church":67,"people":18,"treasury":23},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":1.41,"people":0.91,"treasury":2.29},"right":{"army":2.77,"church":1.97,"people":2.38,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2671,"applied":{"army":10,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":264,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":9,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:37.661Z","v":3,"id":"63f4ee27-83e3-4918-9b1d-4c4c730fb5de","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5725945460385835,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0,"year":16,"after":{"army":37,"church":66,"people":19,"treasury":7},"blend":0.0038,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:37.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.71,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.55,"2":0.28,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.72,"2":0.14,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.26,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.49,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.57,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.38,"2":0.4,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":150},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:37.811Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":24,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-7"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":40,"church":68,"people":24,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":1.35,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.64},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.75,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.38}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":150},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:39.652Z","v":3,"id":"ef32f887-0879-4ca1-ab86-88c9c6ca9ca9","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.007597243215599958,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.89,"year":17,"after":{"army":34,"church":61,"people":5,"treasury":11},"blend":0.6012,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:39.652Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1983,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.72,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.36,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.7,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.24,"2":0.46,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.1,"2":0.05,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.05,"2":0.51,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.53,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:39.806Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":37,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"+7","treasury":"-17"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-4","church":"-6","people":"-15","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":806,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":37,"church":66,"people":19,"treasury":7},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.47,"people":0.76,"treasury":2.27},"right":{"army":1.44,"church":1.66,"people":2.58,"treasury":0.55}},"tokens":2789,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-6,"people":-15,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":7,"treasury":-17}},"confidence":0.78,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:41.653Z","v":3,"id":"0ae317af-02f4-42df-ba39-42c2f7fc49dc","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.2516255169441939,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.03,"year":18,"after":{"army":34,"church":59,"people":4,"treasury":6},"blend":0.049,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:41.653Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.17,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.31,"2":0.47,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.53,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.16,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.14,"2":0.75,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.31,"2":0.06,"3":0.5,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.35,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:41.795Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"+1"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"-1","church":"-3","people":"-2","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":791,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":34,"church":61,"people":5,"treasury":11},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.71,"people":1.31,"treasury":2.1},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.74,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.48}},"tokens":2755,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-2,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:43.671Z","v":3,"id":"1f0ee139-3026-4203-ba02-dda7b4b0c4b4","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":0.38},"know":0.33,"mock":false,"roll":0.13807301351973789,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.94,"year":19,"after":{"army":33,"church":54,"people":0,"treasury":6},"blend":0.7081999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:43.671Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Jocasta III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.41,"2":0.51,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.53,"2":0.37,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.64,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.51,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:43.851Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Jocasta III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 38% of the time.","description":"Jocasta III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-7","treasury":"-1"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-4","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":767,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}}}},"latencyMs":135}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"d800320d-b3b6-4fed-a9a1-957f91f7ba8a","before":{"army":34,"church":59,"people":4,"treasury":6},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.5,"people":1.39,"treasury":1.89},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.88,"people":1.67,"treasury":0.95}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":135,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-7,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-13}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:45.666Z","v":3,"id":"e8385ece-4f9f-4ed6-a346-f47bd7fdf849","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.2381872302241239,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.96,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"blend":0.24899999999999994,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:45.666Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.34,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.41,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.69,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.44,"3":0.4,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":137},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:45.803Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Do it":{"army":"+1","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"},"The guard is enough":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.07,"church":1.92,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.87,"people":1.89,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":137},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:47.656Z","v":3,"id":"200a06ae-e911-41e0-9b3b-ef4eb8ea0051","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.17444133432770226,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.92,"year":2,"after":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":27},"blend":0.20109999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:47.656Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.44,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.79,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.79,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.49,"3":0.49,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:47.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-1","church":"-11","people":"-14","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"0","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":134}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":52,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.92,"church":1.06,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.93},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.17,"people":2.59,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":134,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-11,"people":-14,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:49.659Z","v":3,"id":"a3689103-b9ca-4311-bda2-8fa030c0a06f","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.22931243986710892,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.24,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":38,"treasury":19},"blend":0.7377,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:49.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":32,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.74,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.06,"3":0.85,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.2,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.3,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.19,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.82,"2":0.08,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.46,"3":0.37,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:49.829Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":32,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-3","church":"+10","people":"+5","treasury":"-9"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":52,"church":40,"people":32,"treasury":27},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":2.87,"people":2.39,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":1.68,"people":1.43,"treasury":2.19}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":10,"people":5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:51.672Z","v":3,"id":"73adc534-18d6-4950-87d1-f0fd229845e8","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.8186638092446341,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.33,"year":4,"after":{"army":49,"church":48,"people":32,"treasury":17},"blend":0.8277,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:51.672Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.82,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.55,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.8,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:51.826Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-3"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":50,"church":51,"people":38,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.68,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.77},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.04,"people":1.91,"treasury":1.15}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.34,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:53.672Z","v":3,"id":"318c1547-5eb3-4dcf-942b-99445a727e5d","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.34654196517890834,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":46,"church":49,"people":37,"treasury":18},"blend":0.20999999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:53.672Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.13,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.55,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.49,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.33,"2":0,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.54,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:53.883Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"-7","church":"-8","people":"-15","treasury":"-20"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:55.675Z","v":3,"id":"eb65b94b-5c55-46a8-a244-0fb579344fd6","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6520329936446116,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.03,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":38,"treasury":16},"blend":0.006299999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:55.675Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":46,"church":49,"people":37,"treasury":18},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.47,"church":1.85,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.91,"people":1.97,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:57.667Z","v":3,"id":"291ba0dd-7f24-4051-807b-fc9aac775a57","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.6334336234532465,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":41,"church":49,"people":38,"treasury":8},"blend":0.23369999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:57.667Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.33,"2":0.09,"3":0.48,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.68,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.4,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.61,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.12,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.67,"2":0.23,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":198},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:57.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 16: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":208}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":48,"church":49,"people":38,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":0.85,"people":0.42,"treasury":0.12},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.9,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.25}},"tokens":2674,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":208,"forecast":198},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-14,"people":-19,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:47:59.657Z","v":3,"id":"0b973c42-eacf-4d70-8da9-9aeffad96efa","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Philippa V","wisdom":0.79},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.5490391889156976,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":39,"church":54,"people":37,"treasury":0},"blend":0.3127,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:59.657Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Philippa V, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.53,"2":0.14,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.4,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.76,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.36,"1":0.63,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.38,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.29,"2":0.22,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.77,"1":0.21,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":229},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:47:59.886Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"danger":["treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":38,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa V","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 79% of the time.","description":"Philippa V sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-6","church":"-11","people":"-16","treasury":"-21"},"Send grain":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"-2","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":731,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"cf77ef8a-371a-4421-b779-4a7fa2bb7463","before":{"army":41,"church":49,"people":38,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.09,"people":0.65,"treasury":0.25},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":2.3,"people":1.82,"treasury":0.79}},"tokens":2633,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":-1,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":229},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":-16,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":-2,"treasury":-15}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:01.661Z","v":3,"id":"f53b8028-0baa-49ef-8783-0e47d567bd8d","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.4476583633274509,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":0.2,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"blend":0.58,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:01.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.2,"right":0.8}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.56,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.81,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":228},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:01.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-2"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.06,"church":2.08,"people":2.15,"treasury":2.01},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.83,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":228},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:03.666Z","v":3,"id":"88a1b8a6-8216-4995-96d9-725aed61aaa1","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.85,"mock":false,"roll":0.024812345602690078,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.3,"year":2,"after":{"army":57,"church":44,"people":52,"treasury":51},"blend":0.575,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:03.666Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.56,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.11,"3":0.79,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.31,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.82,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:03.873Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Guard the road":{"army":"-11","church":"+9","people":"-3","treasury":"-7"},"Hold the border":{"army":"+4","church":"-9","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.85,"right":0.15}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":53,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.33,"church":1.26,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.73,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-8,"people":-1,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-3,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.71}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:05.658Z","v":3,"id":"70889321-e157-49c8-86ed-36c009a6d4d1","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3779962156109016,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":60,"church":39,"people":41,"treasury":41},"blend":0.51,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:05.658Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.2,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.42,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.5,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9400000000000001,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.89,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":236},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:05.893Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"+2","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-11"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":57,"church":44,"people":52,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.17,"church":1.5,"people":1.01,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.49,"church":2.07,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":236},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":2,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:07.663Z","v":3,"id":"5c3bf10f-0dcb-43d0-9fbb-c883ac0f2cc6","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.7238600104184827,"step":12,"trap":0.65,"want":0.27,"year":4,"after":{"army":61,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":41},"blend":0.2,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:07.663Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":41,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.65,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.08,"3":0.65,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.29,"3":0.27,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.54,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.21,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.54,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:07.878Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":41,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+5","people":"-7","treasury":"0"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:09.658Z","v":3,"id":"28bf9a56-5f24-4da0-9081-09ca3d269a95","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.05450485111001635,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.99,"year":5,"after":{"army":50,"church":31,"people":32,"treasury":27},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:09.658Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.7,"2":0.09,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.87,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.68,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.6900000000000001,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.62,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:09.881Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":61,"church":38,"people":44,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.33,"people":0.91,"treasury":0.72},"right":{"army":1.7,"church":2.03,"people":2.28,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-14},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:11.658Z","v":3,"id":"6e481fa2-7b5e-415e-a50b-7ff99d132190","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.7706822687501973,"step":12,"trap":0.53,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":43,"church":31,"people":33,"treasury":21},"blend":0.51,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:11.658Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":32,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.53,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.09,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.82,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.66,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.61,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.59,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:11.830Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":160}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":50,"church":31,"people":32,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.26,"church":1.01,"people":0.84,"treasury":0.63},"right":{"army":1.37,"church":1.94,"people":1.96,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":160,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-12,"people":-14,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:13.659Z","v":3,"id":"9b0128eb-bda1-4560-b59e-7bbe75d7c1e1","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9029020403264318,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.8,"year":7,"after":{"army":44,"church":33,"people":40,"treasury":21},"blend":0.405,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:13.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":33,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.81,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.34,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":151},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:13.810Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":43,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"people":33,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-3","church":"-6","people":"-11","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":43,"church":31,"people":33,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.46,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.11,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":151},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:15.675Z","v":3,"id":"cdd18b4e-a957-4057-8cf2-5e5022e90d3c","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.08480114340485101,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":0.03,"year":8,"after":{"army":45,"church":34,"people":42,"treasury":21},"blend":0.02,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:15.675Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":40,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.65,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.89,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.79,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.86,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:15.847Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":40,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":44,"church":33,"people":40,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.89,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.97,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:17.660Z","v":3,"id":"8e316d77-aff6-42bf-a919-95e4f2088027","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3776406730692654,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":30,"people":32,"treasury":11},"blend":0.505,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:17.660Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":42,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.35,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.83,"2":0.06,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.68,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.19,"3":0.76,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.78,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.14,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":240},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:17.900Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"people":42,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-11"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-11","church":"+2","people":"+8","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":45,"church":34,"people":42,"treasury":21},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.56,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.06,"church":2.2,"people":2.7,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":240},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-11,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:19.661Z","v":3,"id":"916b8d71-110c-47d9-9999-9838adfa962c","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.25021674720942677,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.06,"year":10,"after":{"army":50,"church":31,"people":34,"treasury":17},"blend":0.53,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:19.661Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.7,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.77,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.47,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.5,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.75,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:19.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":30,"danger":["treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":11},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-4","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":726,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":50,"church":30,"people":32,"treasury":11},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.96,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.42},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.69,"people":1.44,"treasury":0.97}},"tokens":2624,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-4,"people":-7,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:21.665Z","v":3,"id":"2a2e6c10-363d-4bda-a3ab-5712a3139e07","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5273866241948628,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.72,"year":11,"after":{"army":52,"church":39,"people":45,"treasury":20},"blend":0.36,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:21.665Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.36,"2":0.16,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.22,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.86,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.38,"3":0.6,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.06,"3":0.89,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.58,"2":0.18,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.5,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:21.902Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":31,"danger":["treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":17},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+1","church":"+7","people":"+10","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:23.659Z","v":3,"id":"ac36ce70-870a-4896-bab1-5d19d688b06d","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.4349290916490802,"step":12,"trap":0.08,"want":0.6,"year":12,"after":{"army":54,"church":40,"people":48,"treasury":21},"blend":0.3,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:23.659Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:25.665Z","v":3,"id":"c1409556-9847-4054-a088-4e5c3a0163de","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.8317182346914103,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.08,"year":13,"after":{"army":63,"church":34,"people":43,"treasury":15},"blend":0.07,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:25.665Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":54,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"people":48,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A fleet of trade ships. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:27.674Z","v":3,"id":"4a440c00-41d7-4c54-ac61-4f814321c4fb","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.5451909528001169,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":59,"church":40,"people":44,"treasury":2},"blend":0.52,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:27.674Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.43,"2":0.17,"3":0.35,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.48,"2":0.36,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.75,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.38,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.27,"2":0.24,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.32,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.73,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":176},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:27.850Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":43,"treasury":15},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-2","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-20"},"Send grain":{"army":"-5","church":"+5","people":"0","treasury":"-14"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":257}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":63,"church":34,"people":43,"treasury":15},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.14,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.37},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":2.41,"people":1.96,"treasury":0.8}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":1,"treasury":-13},"latency":{"advisor":257,"forecast":176},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-5,"church":5,"people":0,"treasury":-14}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:29.666Z","v":3,"id":"baf3c905-ba7d-4eb3-bf37-042423fd36b9","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Osric I","wisdom":0.5},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.09368709125750074,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":1,"year":15,"after":{"army":48,"church":29,"people":24,"treasury":0},"blend":0.5,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:29.666Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Osric I, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.52,"2":0.11,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.36,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.7,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.73,"1":0.27,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.58,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.96,"1":0.04,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:29.815Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":40,"danger":["treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":2},"monarch":{"name":"Osric I","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 50% of the time.","description":"Osric I sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-12","church":"-12","people":"-21","treasury":"-24"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-6","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 2: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":738,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":200}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"04daebcc-1e56-46c0-9126-0de73e1cb39b","before":{"army":59,"church":40,"people":44,"treasury":2},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":0.97,"people":0.28,"treasury":0.04},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":2.11,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-11,"people":-20,"treasury":-23},"latency":{"advisor":200,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-12,"people":-21,"treasury":-24},"right":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:31.668Z","v":3,"id":"0370a074-d630-4bbf-9523-3af96298b32f","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6893121810112588,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.98,"year":1,"after":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":40},"blend":0.8072000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:31.668Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.42,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.52,"2":0.2,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.57,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.62,"2":0.31,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.29,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.69,"2":0.07,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.86,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:31.864Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-11"},"Send grain":{"army":"0","church":"+7","people":"+7","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.31,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.6,"people":2.6,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2571,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":7,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:33.682Z","v":3,"id":"8047ea90-792e-46b0-9d23-02b5ccece291","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.8638878350513224,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.96,"year":2,"after":{"army":46,"church":52,"people":41,"treasury":33},"blend":0.807,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:33.682Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1891,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.87,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.83,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.25,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.42,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.04,"3":0.74,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":230},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:33.912Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":38,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-13","people":"-10","treasury":"+10"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+8","people":"+2","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":244}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":46,"church":43,"people":38,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":0.89,"people":1.14,"treasury":2.8},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.7,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":244,"forecast":230},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-13,"people":-10,"treasury":10},"right":{"army":-1,"church":8,"people":2,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:35.683Z","v":3,"id":"9e7aba6e-938f-457a-91e9-b932d27f46a5","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.879644101662834,"step":12,"trap":0.86,"want":0.69,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":35},"blend":0.5694,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:35.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":41,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.86,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"left":0.69,"right":0.31}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.43,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.67,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.79,"2":0.14,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.64,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.26,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:35.903Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":41,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-8","people":"-10","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":46,"church":52,"people":41,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":1.3,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.34},"right":{"army":2.34,"church":2.26,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2609,"applied":{"army":5,"church":4,"people":7,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-8,"people":-10,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":4,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.38,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:37.670Z","v":3,"id":"b385510e-9b8e-4350-87d9-82dc27b4c606","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.2522857768968343,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.4,"year":4,"after":{"army":52,"church":61,"people":61,"treasury":32},"blend":0.49180000000000007,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:37.670Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"left":0.4,"right":0.6}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.58,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.91,"4":0.04}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.46,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.4,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:37.840Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":48,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":712,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":51,"church":56,"people":48,"treasury":35},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.32,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.69},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":1.58,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.46}},"tokens":2623,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.2,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:39.673Z","v":3,"id":"fe8ddf66-225b-4915-bf04-54c3172a597d","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.91,"mock":false,"roll":0.09414776868622932,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.3,"year":5,"after":{"army":53,"church":66,"people":72,"treasury":30},"blend":0.4098,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:39.673Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":61,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.3,"right":0.7}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.37,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.44,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.07,"3":0.83,"4":0.03}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.51,"2":0.35,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.89,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.67,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.6,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":229},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:39.902Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":61,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"0"},"Hang him":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":52,"church":61,"people":61,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.32,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.56,"church":1.57,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":11,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":229},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":10,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:41.673Z","v":3,"id":"67fd0118-63eb-4ec2-b69b-08ad90d726c7","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.4870623518944477,"step":12,"trap":0.83,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":48,"church":69,"people":64,"treasury":19},"blend":0.8254,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:41.673Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":72,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.83,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.49,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.18,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.41,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.68,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.96,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.45,"3":0.47,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:41.825Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":72,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+1","treasury":"+5"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-6","church":"+2","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":157}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":53,"church":66,"people":72,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":2.14,"people":1.28,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.84,"people":2.12,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":3,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":157,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":2,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":1,"treasury":5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:43.688Z","v":3,"id":"505af7e1-5f27-49e7-8ebe-792f8ccb1ae0","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9655739755942698,"step":12,"trap":0.82,"want":0.8,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":71,"people":62,"treasury":19},"blend":0.6560000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:43.688Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.82,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"left":0.8,"right":0.2}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.5,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.44,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.71,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:43.855Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":69,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-4","church":"-3","people":"-6","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":235}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":48,"church":69,"people":64,"treasury":19},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.73,"people":1.47,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.09,"people":1.78,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":235,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.6,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:45.686Z","v":3,"id":"e984ef5f-d0b5-4412-8a33-f4ce50d4759f","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.19635519099362786,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.26,"year":8,"after":{"army":44,"church":67,"people":51,"treasury":22},"blend":0.3932,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:45.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1970,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"left":0.26,"right":0.74}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.53,"2":0.24,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.39,"2":0.53,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.73,"2":0.07,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.25,"2":0.44,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.11,"2":0.03,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.07,"2":0.59,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.7,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:45.830Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":19},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"+5","treasury":"-15"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-5","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":48,"church":71,"people":62,"treasury":19},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.56,"people":0.97,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":1.07,"church":1.78,"people":2.42,"treasury":0.73}},"tokens":2749,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":5,"treasury":-15}},"confidence":0.48,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:47.687Z","v":3,"id":"8ad85184-8da2-4681-aa53-5633e742b38d","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5142392249813552,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0.91,"year":9,"after":{"army":36,"church":72,"people":37,"treasury":13},"blend":0.7498000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:47.687Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":51,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.27,"2":0.02,"3":0.58,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.74,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.15,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.15,"3":0.83,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.69,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":144},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:47.831Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":51,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+4","people":"-15","treasury":"-10"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":206}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":44,"church":67,"people":51,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":2.33,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.16},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":1.32,"people":2.83,"treasury":1.94}},"tokens":2626,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":206,"forecast":144},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:49.680Z","v":3,"id":"5f728234-2f7c-4b50-b4df-c41ec285cd5a","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":0.18},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7618500529383267,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.99,"year":10,"after":{"army":25,"church":62,"people":23,"treasury":0},"blend":0.8118000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:49.680Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Beatrix V, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1936,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.59,"2":0.2,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.74,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.33,"2":0.36,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.63,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.78,"1":0.22,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.03,"2":0.44,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:49.876Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":37,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Beatrix V","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 18% of the time.","description":"Beatrix V cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-12","church":"-11","people":"-15","treasury":"-21"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"bc8924fc-3aec-442e-9a30-197e4f227a77","before":{"army":36,"church":72,"people":37,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1,"church":1.07,"people":0.74,"treasury":0.22},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.05,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.43}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-11,"people":-15,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:51.688Z","v":3,"id":"ea4d7462-f904-4fdc-aa6b-406079f8af53","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7331035952850766,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":0.43,"year":1,"after":{"army":62,"church":52,"people":57,"treasury":40},"blend":0.33099999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:51.688Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"left":0.43,"right":0.57}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.94,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.05,"3":0.93,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.69,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.61,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.46,"3":0.5,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.36,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:51.836Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"+4"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"+1","people":"+6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.72,"people":1.37,"treasury":2.31},"right":{"army":2.9,"church":2.06,"people":2.47,"treasury":1.11}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":12,"church":2,"people":7,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":11,"church":1,"people":6,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.15,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:53.684Z","v":3,"id":"a2eb8ffa-9d51-455d-9df7-0b07c4cf4c5a","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.08,"mock":false,"roll":0.429849372346053,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.92,"year":2,"after":{"army":67,"church":45,"people":44,"treasury":41},"blend":0.668,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:53.684Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1913,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.05,"3":0.6,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.66,"2":0.21,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.8,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.17,"3":0.78,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.17,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.29,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.48,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:53.846Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":57,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+4","church":"-8","people":"-14","treasury":"0"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-7","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}}}},"latencyMs":147}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":62,"church":52,"people":57,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.32,"church":1.36,"people":0.8,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.45,"church":2.06,"people":2.75,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2616,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-7,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":147,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-7,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:55.687Z","v":3,"id":"b7321f37-68de-4407-a338-3cce3455cce8","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5024018684547753,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.9,"year":3,"after":{"army":59,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":30},"blend":0.633,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:55.687Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":44,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.69,"2":0.18,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.71,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.87,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:55.876Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":67,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":44,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on the Duke":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-12"},"Invite him to court":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":67,"church":45,"people":44,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.29,"church":1.56,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.97},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.96,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:57.687Z","v":3,"id":"7ced010a-f96e-4b8c-b327-1552cf032f9a","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.4881518568727268,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":22,"treasury":25},"blend":0.729,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:57.687Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.57,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.61,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.32,"2":0.05,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.29,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.45,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.18,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.52,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:57.878Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"people":33,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-3","church":"+3","people":"-12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":59,"church":41,"people":33,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.76,"church":2.21,"people":1,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.57,"people":2.05,"treasury":2.3}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":3,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:48:59.668Z","v":3,"id":"f59ccbd7-2b8d-4f7e-8e8b-627383e7b182","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.03470611038378224,"step":12,"trap":0.77,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":11,"treasury":13},"blend":0.706,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:59.668Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":22,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1931,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.77,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.63,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.61,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.35,"3":0.57,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.91,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.17,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":285},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:48:59.953Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":22,"treasury":25},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-12","treasury":"-13"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":722,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":57,"church":45,"people":22,"treasury":25},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.22,"people":1.02,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.19,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.73}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":285},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-12,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:01.738Z","v":3,"id":"b78f5de8-6e2a-4d40-a38f-5f1a375bd559","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.9973689966251684,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.9,"year":6,"after":{"army":50,"church":34,"people":22,"treasury":13},"blend":0.63,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:01.738Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1960,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.43,"2":0.48,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.72,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.23,"2":0.02,"3":0.38,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.29,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.53,"2":0.17,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0.16,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.52,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.66,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:01.910Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":37,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-7","church":"-4","people":"-20","treasury":"-14"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"+1","church":"-4","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":786,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":48,"church":37,"people":11,"treasury":13},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.45,"church":1.7,"people":0.3,"treasury":0.84},"right":{"army":2.1,"church":1.69,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2746,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-3,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-4,"people":-20,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":-4,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:03.700Z","v":3,"id":"f047140d-f9ed-424a-9a90-71f13cdfbf28","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"vain","name":"Ursula III","wisdom":0.3},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5857179622399531,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":7,"after":{"army":39,"church":26,"people":6,"treasury":0},"blend":0.693,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:03.700Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Ursula III, a monarch who cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.56,"2":0.23,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.39,"2":0.42,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.54,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.7,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.07,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.72,"1":0.28,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.43,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:03.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":34,"danger":["treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":22,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 30% of the time.","description":"Ursula III cannot resist flattery and would rather die than look weak.","temperament":"Vain"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-12","church":"-9","people":"-17","treasury":"-21"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"a4ac3925-711e-46ae-aea9-4569f0199ebc","before":{"army":50,"church":34,"people":22,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.03,"church":1.24,"people":0.62,"treasury":0.29},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.97,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-8,"people":-16,"treasury":-20},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-9,"people":-17,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:05.785Z","v":3,"id":"4bd45cc9-64c8-437f-8cc1-7c8817d732e3","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2610650781049306,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.96,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":47},"blend":0.6654999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:05.785Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.81,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:05.986Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":151}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.84,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.02,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":151,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:07.685Z","v":3,"id":"1de220bf-4ce1-45c1-b414-015ebd08c400","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.6415437295794968,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.09,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":59,"people":41,"treasury":42},"blend":0.3318,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:07.685Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":49,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.82,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.2,"3":0.65,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.1,"3":0.79,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.17,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.32,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.47,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:07.883Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":49,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn it":{"army":"-1","church":"+9","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"},"Protect the machine":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","options":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"speaker":"The Scholar"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":163}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":49,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.13,"people":2.54,"treasury":2.37},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.76,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.53}},"tokens":2591,"applied":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":163,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":6,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":-9,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.83,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:09.679Z","v":3,"id":"73aea93e-66da-40d7-9e95-77aac8adc821","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9382311211784751,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":51,"church":61,"people":45,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6961999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:09.679Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":41,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.91,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.64,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.87,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.75,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.93,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:09.869Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":41,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"-8","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":225}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":49,"church":59,"people":41,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.74,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":2.07,"church":2.11,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.04}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":225,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-8,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:11.676Z","v":3,"id":"70f3211a-4d0c-402a-a87f-1e68611289ba","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.9100244924860081,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0,"year":4,"after":{"army":46,"church":62,"people":45,"treasury":48},"blend":0.0124,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:11.676Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":45,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.34,"2":0.33999999999999997,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.34,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.39,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.83,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.65,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.79,"2":0.13,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":262},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:11.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":45,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":51,"church":61,"people":45,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.81,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":1.97,"people":1.93,"treasury":2.33}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":262},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:13.676Z","v":3,"id":"4d1d4e35-a8b4-4c69-aa80-0f1d68fdc3be","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5951650741117618,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.02,"year":5,"after":{"army":47,"church":63,"people":47,"treasury":45},"blend":0.0169,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:13.676Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":45,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","options":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6799999999999999,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.68,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.59,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.91,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.75,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.86,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:13.849Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":46,"church":62,"people":45,"treasury":48},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.28,"church":1.6,"people":1.01,"treasury":0.97},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:15.676Z","v":3,"id":"764c4372-676f-4bac-8e7b-61dfaf098369","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.6859686221877985,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":46,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":42},"blend":0.6930999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:15.676Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":47,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.93,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.82,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":135},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:15.811Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":47,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":47,"church":63,"people":47,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.89,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2,"people":2.03,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2575,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":135},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:17.679Z","v":3,"id":"b5a5de6b-c8f3-44e5-a8bf-ffb701912966","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5509196197637323,"step":12,"trap":0.72,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":35,"treasury":36},"blend":0.6930999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:17.679Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":46,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.72,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.51,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.88,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.44,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.89,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.68,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.42,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:17.815Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":46,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+6","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-6","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":46,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":42},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.52,"people":1.03,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.24,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:19.695Z","v":3,"id":"1e7367e4-30c2-49ce-8e56-1a5cda5da70c","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.012459174559167785,"step":12,"trap":0.74,"want":0.93,"year":8,"after":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":21,"treasury":29},"blend":0.6540999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:19.695Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":35,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1914,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.74,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.93,"right":0.07}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.87,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.28,"2":0.02,"3":0.55,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.75,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.84,"2":0.12,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.13,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.31,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:19.858Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"people":35,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-7","church":"+4","people":"-15","treasury":"-8"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-10","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":41,"church":58,"people":35,"treasury":36},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.4,"church":2.3,"people":0.76,"treasury":1.35},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":1.17,"people":2.86,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":-14,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":4,"people":-15,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":-10,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:21.683Z","v":3,"id":"2aeef649-f4b6-4e5a-bf61-e5a064bc1aa0","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.31599019414974494,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0,"year":9,"after":{"army":30,"church":62,"people":19,"treasury":29},"blend":0.0031,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:21.683Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":21,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.73,"2":0.22,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.64,"2":0.25,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.68,"2":0.24,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.6,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.82,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.56,"3":0.16,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:21.848Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":21,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-6","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":21,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.23,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.52,"church":1.85,"people":1.74,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:23.699Z","v":3,"id":"0450e24c-c9ed-4c72-bde7-2d8c9536ab89","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7936065909413599,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":31,"church":61,"people":20,"treasury":28},"blend":0.69,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:23.699Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1923,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.39,"2":0.36,"3":0.17,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.68,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.63,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:23.879Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":19,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":30,"church":62,"people":19,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.64,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.58},"right":{"army":2,"church":1.86,"people":2,"treasury":1.86}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:25.690Z","v":3,"id":"8a4325e3-1f00-439b-847d-77b1791b9f54","card":{"i":11,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be","message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7078689555562292,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":0.15,"year":11,"after":{"army":32,"church":59,"people":22,"treasury":33},"blend":0.1035,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:25.690Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission the window\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the saints be\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1933,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.66,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.43,"2":0.11,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.82,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41000000000000003,"2":0.39,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.97,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.45,"3":0.46,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":149},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:25.838Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":31,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"danger":["people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":20,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the saints be":{"army":"0","church":"-3","people":"+1","treasury":"+4"},"Commission the window":{"army":"-4","church":"0","people":"-11","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"A stained glass window showing Your Majesty among the saints. The theologians object, but theologians object to everything.","options":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission the window","right":"Leave the saints be"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":31,"church":61,"people":20,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.66,"church":1.99,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.78,"people":2.06,"treasury":2.35}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-2,"people":2,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":149},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":0,"people":-11,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.71,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:27.694Z","v":3,"id":"3886c9cd-b5d5-4ce9-809e-cad9d2212889","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9989756949431359,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.99,"year":12,"after":{"army":33,"church":61,"people":33,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6861999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:27.694Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":22,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.41,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.39,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.63,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.77,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.63,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.24,"3":0.34,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:27.848Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"people":22,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-6","church":"-7","people":"-16","treasury":"-14"},"Fix it now":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":32,"church":59,"people":22,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.51,"church":1.4,"people":0.68,"treasury":0.8},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.11,"people":2.82,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2601,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-7,"people":-16,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:29.682Z","v":3,"id":"536a3f91-afb5-4cff-824a-c4a43cc9bc9c","card":{"i":17,"tag":"pious","left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit","message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","speaker":"The Inquisitor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.02541116440855773,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.7,"year":13,"after":{"army":30,"church":65,"people":23,"treasury":32},"blend":0.5139999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:29.682Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":33,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the inquisition\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an audit\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.29,"2":0.08,"3":0.58,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.75,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.43,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.32,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.51,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:29.837Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":33,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send an audit":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"-1","treasury":"+4"},"Send the inquisition":{"army":"-4","church":"+3","people":"-11","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"There are heretics in the eastern town. Also tax collectors, but mostly heretics.","options":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"speaker":"The Inquisitor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the inquisition","right":"Send an audit"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":131}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":33,"church":61,"people":33,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":2.27,"people":1.05,"treasury":1.82},"right":{"army":1.69,"church":1.25,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.32}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":-10,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":131,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":3,"people":-11,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":-1,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:31.686Z","v":3,"id":"f7055df4-ac8b-477a-9acb-ccf603041ee5","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5459956466141156,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.04,"year":14,"after":{"army":29,"church":67,"people":28,"treasury":40},"blend":0.030699999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:31.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":23,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.55,"2":0.2,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.59,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.69,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.62,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.38,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":190},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:31.877Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":23,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-8","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-22"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+4","treasury":"+7"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":233}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":30,"church":65,"people":23,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.25,"people":0.76,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.05,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":233,"forecast":190},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:33.685Z","v":3,"id":"71bb0e68-ad1c-47a1-a330-af13c3c334c0","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.14690144772627645,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.24,"year":15,"after":{"army":27,"church":68,"people":12,"treasury":37},"blend":0.16869999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:33.685Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":28,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.36,"2":0.16,"3":0.41,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.41,"1":0.59,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.52,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.28,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.87,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":221},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:33.906Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":28,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-17","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":29,"church":67,"people":28,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":2,"people":0.6,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.09,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":-16,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":221},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-17,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.51,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:35.681Z","v":3,"id":"949aaf1c-ede0-4bab-b42a-d9c10c1646bc","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8906766522527363,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":16,"after":{"army":28,"church":67,"people":12,"treasury":39},"blend":0.69,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:35.681Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.69,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.45,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.67,"2":0.21,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.64,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.59,"2":0.35,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.67,"3":0.22,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":139},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:35.820Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-4","church":"-8","people":"-11","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":27,"church":68,"people":12,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.33,"people":1.12,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.86,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":139},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":-11,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:37.686Z","v":3,"id":"bd7aae18-9d5d-4d13-80e8-7da3f3592577","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6259630181144469,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":17,"after":{"army":27,"church":60,"people":8,"treasury":40},"blend":0.69,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:37.686Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.87,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.66,"2":0.26,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.12,"2":0.28,"3":0.56,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.52,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":215},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:37.902Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+4","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":161}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":28,"church":67,"people":12,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.33,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.96},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.4,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":161,"forecast":215},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-5,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:39.691Z","v":3,"id":"62140b92-6cd5-408d-9626-5122ac7c053f","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.31},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.47142901857260777,"step":12,"trap":0.21,"want":0.81,"year":18,"after":{"army":24,"church":54,"people":0,"treasury":45},"blend":0.5589,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:39.691Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1963,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.21,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.35,"1":0.6,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.62,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.05,"3":0.89,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.6,"3":0.35,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.9,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":251},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:39.942Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 31% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-15","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"28a981d4-f716-41a8-90b3-bbfa66f21e64","before":{"army":27,"church":60,"people":8,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.44,"people":0.73,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":1.83,"church":2.09,"people":2.89,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2737,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":251},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.62,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:41.692Z","v":3,"id":"b333c58a-6268-4593-88fe-ceb5a06567e8","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.29,"mock":false,"roll":0.5087389022827837,"step":12,"trap":0.62,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":50,"church":36,"people":50,"treasury":44},"blend":0.4178,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:41.692Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.62,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.62,"2":0.35,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.35,"2":0.37,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.06,"3":0.71,"4":0.14}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.33,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.5,"2":0.04,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.1,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.28,"2":0.29,"3":0.33999999999999997,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.76,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.49,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":362},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:42.054Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-8","church":"+11","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"-1","church":"-15","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.37,"church":2.89,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":0.71,"people":1.94,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-14,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":362},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":11,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-15,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.42}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:43.709Z","v":3,"id":"0bfdb626-f14d-4a69-a3a2-049dce61b6c8","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.054066238932201305,"step":12,"trap":0.58,"want":0.01,"year":2,"after":{"army":49,"church":39,"people":55,"treasury":45},"blend":0.0018000000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:43.709Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":50,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.58,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.71,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.85,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.65,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.95,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":154},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:43.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":36,"people":50,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Declare war":{"army":"-10","church":"-10","people":"-13","treasury":"-15"},"Demand an apology":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":50,"church":36,"people":50,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":1.14,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.73},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.2,"people":2.33,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":154},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-10,"people":-13,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:45.701Z","v":3,"id":"3c086dbb-0e45-4046-8c3c-b6293bbcebbc","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2644340751472418,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.21,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":38,"people":56,"treasury":46},"blend":0.054200000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:45.701Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":55,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1908,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"left":0.21,"right":0.79}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.68,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.75,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.63,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:45.938Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"people":55,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-4"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":221}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":49,"church":39,"people":55,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":1.85,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.82,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":221,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.59,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:47.697Z","v":3,"id":"588e171a-14c4-4681-983c-65f287fccf19","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8116980202865793,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.42,"year":4,"after":{"army":52,"church":45,"people":60,"treasury":49},"blend":0.10020000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:47.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":56,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"left":0.42,"right":0.58}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.7,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.68,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.61,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.39,"1":0.52,"2":0.04,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.28,"3":0.57,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.23,"3":0.51,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.55,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:47.870Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":56,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-10","church":"-12","people":"-15","treasury":"-13"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"+6","people":"+3","treasury":"+2"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":50,"church":38,"people":56,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.13,"church":1.03,"people":0.75,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.48,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":2,"church":7,"people":4,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-12,"people":-15,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.16,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:49.691Z","v":3,"id":"afacd366-6e3c-450a-9ec3-1b285c7ee935","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.273889343433698,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.23,"year":5,"after":{"army":60,"church":44,"people":58,"treasury":47},"blend":0.066,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:49.691Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the fleet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the army funded\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.95,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.63,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.58,"2":0.35,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.38,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.66,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:49.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":709,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":52,"church":45,"people":60,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.42,"people":2,"treasury":1.29},"right":{"army":2.62,"church":1.83,"people":1.72,"treasury":1.75}},"tokens":2630,"applied":{"army":8,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-7,"people":0,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":7,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:51.704Z","v":3,"id":"7c08810c-637e-46a7-81eb-0f8a9b728730","card":{"i":2,"tag":"vain","left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme","message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","speaker":"The Herald"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.9415185136024422,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.16,"year":6,"after":{"army":60,"church":43,"people":62,"treasury":48},"blend":0.037000000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:51.704Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":58,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Flog the poets\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them rhyme\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.16,"right":0.84}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.43,"2":0.26,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.74,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.64,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.38,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.92,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:51.882Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":58,"treasury":47},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Flog the poets":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-9","treasury":"-5"},"Let them rhyme":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring queen's poets call her 'the Magnificent'. Your poets call you 'the Adequate'. I could have them flogged.","options":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"speaker":"The Herald"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Flog the poets","right":"Let them rhyme"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":714,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":60,"church":44,"people":58,"treasury":47},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":1.83,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.87,"people":2.29,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:53.700Z","v":3,"id":"4b69b482-4d44-4ab9-a67d-cb24b8fba42b","card":{"i":58,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother","message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.52,"mock":false,"roll":0.3899180687935184,"step":12,"trap":0.63,"want":0.63,"year":7,"after":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":60,"treasury":46},"blend":0.5398000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:53.700Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":62,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Thank your brother\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.63,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"left":0.63,"right":0.37}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.11,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.2,"3":0.6,"4":0.02}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.49,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.4,"2":0.43,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.5,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.39,"2":0.38,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.44,"2":0.44,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":130},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:53.830Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":62,"treasury":48},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Thank your brother":{"army":"+5","church":"-6","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"},"Arrest your brother":{"army":"-10","church":"+1","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"Your brother has been very generous to the army lately. Very generous. He says it is patriotism.","options":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest your brother","right":"Thank your brother"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.52,"right":0.48}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":60,"church":43,"people":62,"treasury":48},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.07,"people":1.71,"treasury":1.78},"right":{"army":2.44,"church":1.54,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":130},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":5,"church":-6,"people":-4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.26,"prudenceConfidence":0.03}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:55.706Z","v":3,"id":"047cfbc4-8da5-4c49-87c5-4f91458642e2","card":{"i":20,"tag":"pious","left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine","message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.9428931939033545,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":48,"church":35,"people":69,"treasury":42},"blend":0.22100000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:55.706Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order prayers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order quarantine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.74,"2":0.2,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.37,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.24,"2":0.04,"3":0.54,"4":0.07}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.65,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.76,"2":0.05,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.05,"3":0.75,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.55,"2":0.29,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.5,"2":0.34,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":133},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:55.839Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":45,"people":60,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order prayers":{"army":"-10","church":"+3","people":"-16","treasury":"-8"},"Order quarantine":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"+8","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"The plague spreads. The bishop says prayer will end it. I say quarantine will end it. The bishop outranks me.","options":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order prayers","right":"Order quarantine"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":125}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":51,"church":45,"people":60,"treasury":46},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":2.23,"people":0.69,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.09,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.62}},"tokens":2608,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":9,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":125,"forecast":133},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":3,"people":-16,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":8,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:57.687Z","v":3,"id":"58959566-4aa0-43fe-8609-bac194e8e528","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6953163299200489,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0.83,"year":9,"after":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":66,"treasury":43},"blend":0.23140000000000005,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:57.687Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":69,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.61,"2":0.3,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.46,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.19,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.38,"2":0.36,"3":0.2,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.5,"2":0.2,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.33,"2":0.26,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:57.907Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"people":69,"treasury":42},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-7","church":"-3","people":"-4","treasury":"0"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":48,"church":35,"people":69,"treasury":42},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.98,"people":1.37,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":1.4,"church":1.72,"people":1.65,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":219},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.67,"prudenceConfidence":0.81}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:49:59.693Z","v":3,"id":"f34f3841-2857-420f-bcbb-c021986360a3","card":{"i":89,"tag":"any","left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away","message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.11592142227906965,"step":12,"trap":0.27,"want":0.96,"year":10,"after":{"army":34,"church":33,"people":62,"treasury":34},"blend":0.18920000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:59.693Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":66,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant refuge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn him away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.27,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.65,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.42,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.32,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.61,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.66,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:49:59.845Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":66,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant refuge":{"army":"-9","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-10"},"Turn him away":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"-1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A neighbouring prince asks for refuge. His brother wants him dead. His brother has an army.","options":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant refuge","right":"Turn him away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":42,"church":33,"people":66,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.24,"church":1.94,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.15},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":2.05,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.91,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:01.692Z","v":3,"id":"770d42a1-34de-41d0-a398-4442118eb984","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.030181843825505927,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.15,"year":11,"after":{"army":32,"church":29,"people":51,"treasury":30},"blend":0.04340000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:01.692Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":62,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"left":0.15,"right":0.85}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.47000000000000003,"2":0.22,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.23,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.48,"2":0.35,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.93,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.32,"3":0.62,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.48,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.7,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":160},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:01.851Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":33,"people":62,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-5"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+3","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":34,"church":33,"people":62,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.61,"people":0.98,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":2.27,"church":2.61,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":160},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":3,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.7,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:03.688Z","v":3,"id":"7880050d-9752-493d-8439-31f9d6c3cc52","card":{"i":15,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages","message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","speaker":"The Abbot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.7106595858808598,"step":12,"trap":0.78,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":33,"church":21,"people":62,"treasury":29},"blend":0.20460000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:03.688Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":51,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the forest\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it for the villages\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1927,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.78,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.21,"2":0.02,"3":0.59,"4":0.13}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.81,"2":0.1,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.14,"3":0.82,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:03.861Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":29,"people":51,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Grant the forest":{"army":"-9","church":"+7","people":"-14","treasury":"-5"},"Keep it for the villages":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"+10","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The monastery would like the forest. The forest currently feeds the villages, but the villages could learn to fast.","options":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"speaker":"The Abbot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the forest","right":"Keep it for the villages"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":169}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":32,"church":29,"people":51,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.25,"church":2.55,"people":0.86,"treasury":1.57},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.21,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.84}},"tokens":2640,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":11,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":169,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":7,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":10,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.93}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:05.707Z","v":3,"id":"7ae21066-2cb8-4fcf-a720-cd282833e60d","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.32606171126218997,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.08,"year":13,"after":{"army":34,"church":26,"people":68,"treasury":38},"blend":0.022600000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:05.707Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":62,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.08,"right":0.92}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.46,"2":0.28,"3":0.21,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.76,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.56,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.55,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":193},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:05.900Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":62,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-17"},"A modest bust":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+5","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":216}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":33,"church":21,"people":62,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.72,"people":1.27,"treasury":0.55},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.3,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2614,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":6,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":216,"forecast":193},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":5,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.84,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:07.697Z","v":3,"id":"da056819-318a-4ec6-8b48-e3ddaa521a0c","card":{"i":14,"tag":"pious","left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint","message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.7330093817799754,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":14,"after":{"army":34,"church":15,"people":74,"treasury":45},"blend":0.22920000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:07.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A finger is not a saint\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.54,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.02,"3":0.62,"4":0.23}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.91,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.7,"2":0.06,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.22,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.34,"1":0.66,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.21,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:07.905Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"people":68,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fund the cathedral":{"army":"-10","church":"+11","people":"-11","treasury":"-16"},"A finger is not a saint":{"army":"-1","church":"-12","people":"+5","treasury":"+6"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty, a saint's finger bone has been found in the mud outside the abbey. A cathedral would be fitting. A very large cathedral.","options":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the cathedral","right":"A finger is not a saint"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":727,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":34,"church":26,"people":68,"treasury":38},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.17,"church":2.93,"people":1.06,"treasury":0.67},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.02,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.47}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-11,"people":6,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":11,"people":-11,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-12,"people":5,"treasury":6}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:09.705Z","v":3,"id":"6259ae99-c643-4fd4-b259-8f0e69831aa6","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.6249538022726413,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0.94,"year":15,"after":{"army":35,"church":21,"people":76,"treasury":45},"blend":0.9892,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:09.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":15,"danger":["church is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.21,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.47,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.85,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.54,"2":0.34,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:09.853Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":34,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":15,"danger":["church is at 15: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-4","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"0","church":"+5","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 15: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":34,"church":15,"people":74,"treasury":45},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.41,"people":2.09,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.25,"people":1.7,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2688,"applied":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":5,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-4,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:11.707Z","v":3,"id":"348635f2-fbf6-4cfb-94ff-1a9aa01228d5","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.061860343231259884,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.87,"year":16,"after":{"army":35,"church":23,"people":78,"treasury":50},"blend":0.9356,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:11.707Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"people":76,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1886,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.83,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.67,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.67,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.4,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":241},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:11.948Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:13.708Z","v":3,"id":"9262b3c8-ceff-41b3-8f77-ad15f0d8c409","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.5734362615732824,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.06,"year":17,"after":{"army":27,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":51},"blend":0.10919999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:13.708Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"people":78,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.04,"3":0.65,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.78,"2":0.15,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.31,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.83,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.58,"3":0.29,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.19,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.34,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.56,"3":0.24,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":207},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:13.915Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":707,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":35,"church":23,"people":78,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.41,"church":1.48,"people":0.83,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":2.19,"people":2.73,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2627,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":207},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":5,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-9,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:15.704Z","v":3,"id":"2668c9e6-7656-45df-8f76-dada2230156e","card":{"i":57,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat","message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.94,"mock":false,"roll":0.3280740747692006,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.59,"year":18,"after":{"army":27,"church":25,"people":82,"treasury":44},"blend":0.877,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:15.704Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Replace the kitchen staff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Get a second cat\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"left":0.59,"right":0.41}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.93,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.96,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.75,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.47,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.67,"2":0.33,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.88,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:15.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":88,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Get a second cat":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-1"},"Replace the kitchen staff":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Someone has been in the kitchens at night, Sire. It was probably a cat. Probably.","options":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Replace the kitchen staff","right":"Get a second cat"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 88: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":752,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":27,"church":26,"people":88,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.84,"people":1.45,"treasury":1.33},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":1.95,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2698,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.19,"prudenceConfidence":0.88}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:17.694Z","v":3,"id":"25cfd30c-7a6d-4b6d-8751-f53234912115","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.6722521098141085,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.95,"year":19,"after":{"army":19,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":34},"blend":0.9008,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:17.694Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.7,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.68,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.45999999999999996,"2":0.21,"3":0.22,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.66,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.61,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.19,"2":0.53,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.84,"2":0.09,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:17.857Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":25,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"0"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-9","church":"-5","people":"-14","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":203}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":27,"church":25,"people":82,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.6,"people":0.87,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.68,"church":1.84,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2696,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":203,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-5,"people":-14,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:19.695Z","v":3,"id":"8e06ca80-eb05-4e6f-a070-9eb260bef530","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3608072566453149,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.98,"year":20,"after":{"army":17,"church":26,"people":71,"treasury":35},"blend":0.17640000000000006,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:19.695Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1945,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.52,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.68,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.27,"2":0.11,"3":0.44,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.66,"2":0.21,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.11,"2":0.43,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.86,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:19.851Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":21,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":69,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"-3","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-16","church":"+1","people":"-10","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":756,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":193}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":19,"church":21,"people":69,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.63,"church":2.07,"people":1.17,"treasury":1.01},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":2.32,"people":2.11,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2701,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":193,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":1,"people":-10,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-3,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:21.692Z","v":3,"id":"e48be782-ff0f-4815-b846-6d8cc6b85ca9","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.9228778015907122,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.22,"year":21,"after":{"army":10,"church":26,"people":71,"treasury":37},"blend":0.138,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:21.692Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.5,"2":0.22,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.59,"2":0.25,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.38,"2":0.36,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.44,"2":0.27,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.18,"2":0.55,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.52,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.64,"2":0.12,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.13,"2":0.5,"3":0.31,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":213},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:21.905Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":17,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them talk":{"army":"-8","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Take the pass":{"army":"-9","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":124}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":17,"church":26,"people":71,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.26,"church":1.39,"people":1.16,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":1.34,"church":1.94,"people":1.9,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2684,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":124,"forecast":213},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.56,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:23.707Z","v":3,"id":"4e49d1dd-9b96-4e4c-8e86-73c3a26d2cd5","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.82,"mock":false,"roll":0.9865197299817781,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.78,"year":22,"after":{"army":7,"church":23,"people":66,"treasury":32},"blend":0.8128,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:23.707Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.46,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.24,"2":0.58,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.28,"2":0.54,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.31,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.58,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.39,"2":0.5,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":179},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:23.886Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":10,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":26,"danger":["army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-4","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"-6"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-4","church":"+1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 10: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.82,"right":0.18}}}},"latencyMs":179}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":10,"church":26,"people":71,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.07,"people":1.84,"treasury":1.8},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.69,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.52}},"tokens":2703,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":179,"forecast":179},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.55,"prudenceConfidence":0.64}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:25.713Z","v":3,"id":"a0fb44f8-159f-4eab-b2b2-42abdce18aa7","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7125325978954016,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.94,"year":23,"after":{"army":12,"church":22,"people":74,"treasury":40},"blend":0.16920000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:25.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"left":0.94,"right":0.06}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.17,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.53,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.24,"2":0.05,"3":0.38,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.32,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.36,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.31,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.87,"1":0.13,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:25.907Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":7,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+4","church":"-2","people":"+7","treasury":"+7"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-21","church":"-4","people":"-20","treasury":"-22"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":755,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":126}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":7,"church":23,"people":66,"treasury":32},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.22,"church":1.68,"people":0.37,"treasury":0.14},"right":{"army":2.31,"church":1.8,"people":2.61,"treasury":2.58}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-1,"people":8,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":126,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":-4,"people":-20,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":4,"church":-2,"people":7,"treasury":7}},"confidence":0.88,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:27.692Z","v":3,"id":"beeaa1df-474a-4ec5-96ed-0595873dcf29","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8306973717639585,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.23,"year":24,"after":{"army":12,"church":23,"people":82,"treasury":41},"blend":0.04140000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:27.692Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.57,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.44,"2":0.43,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.55,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.33,"3":0.62,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.76,"3":0.11,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:27.856Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-11","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":207}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":12,"church":22,"people":74,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.1,"church":1.55,"people":1.11,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.04,"people":2.57,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":207,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.53,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:29.694Z","v":3,"id":"b1263d85-5751-4818-99ef-ddf363e0eb7c","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.66,"mock":false,"roll":0.24993459751496228,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":25,"after":{"army":8,"church":35,"people":76,"treasury":36},"blend":0.7194,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:29.694Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":23,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1962,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.61,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.03,"3":0.8,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5700000000000001,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.68,"2":0.13,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.5,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.1,"3":0.2,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.48,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:29.884Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":12,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":785,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":12,"church":23,"people":82,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":2.88,"people":1.43,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.34,"people":1.98,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2747,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":12,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":11,"people":-7,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-8,"people":0,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:31.709Z","v":3,"id":"f0abacc3-f784-4b0b-b504-f51c455d5d79","card":{"i":69,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk","message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5749133194309679,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.61,"year":26,"after":{"army":6,"church":35,"people":81,"treasury":35},"blend":0.10980000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:31.709Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pass the law\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"left":0.61,"right":0.39}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.42,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.45,"2":0.15,"3":0.28,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.32,"1":0.67,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.31,"2":0.42,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.09,"2":0.4,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.31,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.14,"2":0.79,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":200},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:31.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":76,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pass the law":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-16","treasury":"-4"},"Let them talk":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"A new law: any who speak ill of the crown lose their tongue. Fewer people would speak ill of the crown.","options":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pass the law","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":749,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":8,"church":35,"people":76,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.66,"people":0.7,"treasury":1.63},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.9,"people":2.32,"treasury":1.83}},"tokens":2686,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":200},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-16,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.22,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:33.694Z","v":3,"id":"e68dfbde-040f-4379-aa21-6797e1209df8","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.72,"mock":false,"roll":0.9079835734591521,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.02,"year":27,"after":{"army":8,"church":41,"people":87,"treasury":37},"blend":0.594,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:33.694Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1950,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.66,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.63,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.66,"2":0.22,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.69,"2":0.23,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.43,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.45,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.37,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.73,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:33.841Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+1","church":"+5","people":"+5","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-9","church":"-8","people":"-8","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"left":0.72,"right":0.28}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":6,"church":35,"people":81,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.35,"people":1.3,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.4,"people":2.42,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2728,"applied":{"army":2,"church":6,"people":6,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-8,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":5,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.44}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:35.708Z","v":3,"id":"6e3bd896-d25b-4ebf-85ef-4fd13e346a05","card":{"i":19,"tag":"pious","left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth","message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","speaker":"The Archbishop"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.83,"mock":false,"roll":0.8621067590704756,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.88,"year":28,"after":{"army":6,"church":39,"people":93,"treasury":32},"blend":0.839,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:35.708Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise the tithe\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A tenth is a tenth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1964,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.63,"2":0.29,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.23,"2":0.72,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.24,"2":0.06,"3":0.55,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.35,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.03,"3":0.79,"4":0.02}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.48,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:35.893Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":41,"danger":["people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":87,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Raise the tithe":{"army":"-9","church":"+3","people":"-15","treasury":"+8"},"A tenth is a tenth":{"army":"-3","church":"-3","people":"+5","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The church's tithe is a tenth. Scripture says nothing about it staying a tenth.","options":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"speaker":"The Archbishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Raise the tithe","right":"A tenth is a tenth"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 87: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":781,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":8,"church":41,"people":87,"treasury":37},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.27,"church":2.24,"people":0.75,"treasury":2.63},"right":{"army":1.79,"church":1.77,"people":2.41,"treasury":1.49}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":6,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":3,"people":-15,"treasury":8},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":5,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:37.697Z","v":3,"id":"569375f2-383d-44a0-882d-a5df9ec6608b","card":{"i":25,"tag":"pious","left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well","message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","speaker":"The Village Elder"},"king":{"flaw":"pious","name":"Ursula I","wisdom":0.82},"know":0.96,"mock":false,"roll":0.5033168439329001,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":1,"year":29,"after":{"army":0,"church":45,"people":79,"treasury":22},"blend":0.9672,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:37.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 93: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":93,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are Ursula I, a monarch who defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build the church\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the well\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.57,"2":0.35,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.2,"2":0.03,"3":0.58,"4":0.11}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.38,"1":0.56,"2":0.01,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0.09,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.24,"3":0.62,"4":0.03}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.87,"2":0.06,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.51,"3":0.26,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:37.845Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":6,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":39,"danger":["people is at 93: one more rise ends the reign","army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":93,"treasury":32},"monarch":{"name":"Ursula I","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 82% of the time.","description":"Ursula I defers to the church in all things and is terrified of damnation.","temperament":"Pious"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the well":{"army":"-5","church":"-9","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Build the church":{"army":"-8","church":"+5","people":"-15","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The new church would sit exactly where the well is. The priest says God will provide water.","options":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"speaker":"The Village Elder"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build the church","right":"Keep the well"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 93: one more rise ends the reign; army is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":774,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"e22df55c-7e4e-4a8d-8dff-efdb3aeab5c7","before":{"army":6,"church":39,"people":93,"treasury":32},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":2.43,"people":0.74,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":1.61,"church":1.25,"people":2.56,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":6,"people":-14,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":5,"people":-15,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-9,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:39.700Z","v":3,"id":"8e0be11f-adfa-4d2f-88cd-fec6881a39f0","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7201225663131996,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"blend":0.38,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:39.700Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.89,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.96,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.91,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.8,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.34,"2":0.63,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.81,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:39.843Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":685,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.97,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.68},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.03,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2574,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:41.697Z","v":3,"id":"cac4833c-e931-4e4b-9e49-be7b5234bcc6","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.77,"mock":false,"roll":0.35744181719732704,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":48,"treasury":40},"blend":0.8535999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:41.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.67,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.65,"2":0.27,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.52,"2":0.39,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.23,"2":0.6799999999999999,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.58,"2":0.21,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.89,"2":0.1,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.24,"3":0.36,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":223},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:41.920Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-8","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}}}},"latencyMs":152}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":51,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":1.86,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.11},"right":{"army":1.31,"church":1.8,"people":1.46,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":152,"forecast":223},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:43.705Z","v":3,"id":"bb39c95f-aec0-4dc4-87d2-d3dd57e72a0b","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.9164851947098971,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0.07,"year":3,"after":{"army":47,"church":46,"people":37,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6155999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:43.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":48,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1892,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.57,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.51,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.53,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.04,"2":0.1,"3":0.84,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.41,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.92,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.6,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.58,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":178},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:43.882Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":48,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+2"},"Hang him":{"army":"-1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":123}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":48,"treasury":40},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":2.26,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.64},"right":{"army":1.66,"church":1.61,"people":1.04,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":123,"forecast":178},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:45.710Z","v":3,"id":"9839015d-3b5f-43c2-a289-86856a095815","card":{"i":71,"tag":"indolent","left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them","message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.044199195834972116,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":44,"church":42,"people":27,"treasury":39},"blend":0.3862,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:45.710Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":37,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"They are all fine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.52,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.88,"2":0.1,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.76,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.37,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:45.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":37,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read them":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+7","treasury":"+1"},"They are all fine":{"army":"-4","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"There are forty petitions waiting. I could read them to you, or I could tell you they are all fine.","options":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"They are all fine","right":"Read them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:47.711Z","v":3,"id":"5302d8c6-9c83-4487-a04e-fec362288b74","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5976501075520946,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.77,"year":5,"after":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":30,"treasury":41},"blend":0.2988,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:47.711Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":27,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.41,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.26,"2":0.16,"3":0.54,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.42,"3":0.55,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.81,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.85,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":123},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:47.834Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":44,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":27,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+6","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-7","church":"+3","people":"-8","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":44,"church":42,"people":27,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":2.29,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.1},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.52,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2613,"applied":{"army":1,"church":7,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":123},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":3,"people":-8,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":2,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.54,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:49.696Z","v":3,"id":"6900089a-1c94-4796-b4e7-c6c86849caa6","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8149892403968191,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.98,"year":6,"after":{"army":47,"church":51,"people":41,"treasury":44},"blend":0.3786,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:49.696Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":30,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.39,"2":0.55,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.77,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.85,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.66,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.27,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":169},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:49.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":45,"church":49,"people":30,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.53,"church":1.55,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":2.11,"church":2.11,"people":2.84,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2599,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":169},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:51.710Z","v":3,"id":"7f4966fc-91d5-4a7a-ae16-7a31cf6a1a9e","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.33151222602716013,"step":12,"trap":0.3,"want":0.98,"year":7,"after":{"army":48,"church":52,"people":45,"treasury":43},"blend":0.9738,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:51.710Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":41,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.3,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.72,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.45,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.44,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.39,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.11,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.15,"3":0.55,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:51.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":41,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-2"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-7","church":"-7","people":"-12","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":145}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":47,"church":51,"people":41,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.01,"church":2.01,"people":2.23,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":1.45,"church":1.42,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":145,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-7,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:53.698Z","v":3,"id":"21af0cba-42a3-4e02-9ee0-d31562561f06","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.9454911306768883,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":49,"church":61,"people":51,"treasury":44},"blend":0.4482,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:53.698Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":45,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.89,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.26,"3":0.7,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.54,"3":0.44,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.8,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:53.894Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":45,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"0","church":"+8","people":"+5","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":48,"church":52,"people":45,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.39,"people":1.74,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.66,"people":2.42,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2584,"applied":{"army":1,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":8,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:55.713Z","v":3,"id":"71ac679a-a58c-48da-92c5-03743a915e37","card":{"i":35,"tag":"greedy","left":"Return it","right":"Keep it","message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","speaker":"The Widow"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.4476246630103742,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.18,"year":9,"after":{"army":50,"church":66,"people":64,"treasury":39},"blend":0.6016,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:55.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Return it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"left":0.18,"right":0.82}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.87,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.72,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.4,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.04,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.5,"2":0.39,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.4,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":188},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:55.901Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":51,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"-1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"+6"},"Return it":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+12","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"My husband's land was seized for a debt he did not owe. I ask for it back. It is good land, and the whole village is watching to see what the crown does with it.","options":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Widow"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Return it","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":710,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":49,"church":61,"people":51,"treasury":44},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.98,"church":2.36,"people":2.96,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.6,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.5}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":13,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":188},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.64,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:57.705Z","v":3,"id":"45bdc89b-eb68-4fd2-8b36-f28474e8eecb","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.5252753528257095,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":62,"church":67,"people":68,"treasury":29},"blend":0.4234,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:57.705Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":64,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.96,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.07,"3":0.91,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.54,"2":0.41,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.59,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.3,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.93,"2":0.07,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:57.853Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":64,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+11","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":205}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":66,"people":64,"treasury":39},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":1.83,"people":1.48,"treasury":2.24},"right":{"army":2.89,"church":1.99,"people":2.22,"treasury":1.07}},"tokens":2602,"applied":{"army":12,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":205,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":11,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.86}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:50:59.697Z","v":3,"id":"935df3ff-9f49-4fbb-b251-f5fe3a9b7994","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8400478530146507,"step":12,"trap":0.66,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":63,"church":68,"people":70,"treasury":33},"blend":0.3862,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:59.697Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":68,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.66,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.55,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.57,"2":0.4,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.68,"2":0.26,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.58,"3":0.33,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:50:59.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":62,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":68,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-6","church":"-3","people":"-7","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":185}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":62,"church":67,"people":68,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.79,"people":1.4,"treasury":1.3},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.04,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.23}},"tokens":2585,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":185,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-7,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:01.699Z","v":3,"id":"4cfe2411-1619-4e1a-ba33-20709cf9d045","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.7896924742316567,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":61,"church":68,"people":80,"treasury":22},"blend":0.5164,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:01.699Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":70,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.62,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.15,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.06,"3":0.8,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.26,"3":0.57,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.97,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":181},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:01.881Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":63,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":70,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-10","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"+9","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":136}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":63,"church":68,"people":70,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.83,"people":1.2,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":1.75,"church":1.9,"people":2.73,"treasury":1}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":136,"forecast":181},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-10,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":9,"treasury":-12}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:03.715Z","v":3,"id":"97e0b52e-dfb6-4fbb-8091-928468959afc","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.4753975144549336,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.99,"year":13,"after":{"army":61,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":18},"blend":0.99,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:03.715Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.19,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.25,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.25,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.55,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.71,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.45,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.77,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.65,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":214},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:03.929Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":22},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"-1","church":"-7","people":"-15","treasury":"-5"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+2","church":"+5","people":"+8","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":61,"church":68,"people":80,"treasury":22},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.38,"people":0.75,"treasury":1.61},"right":{"army":2.16,"church":2.42,"people":2.64,"treasury":1.89}},"tokens":2683,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-6,"people":-14,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":214},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-7,"people":-15,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":2,"church":5,"people":8,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:05.715Z","v":3,"id":"7daf617c-882a-4bea-bbf9-aaffee479975","card":{"i":32,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour","message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","speaker":"The Foreign Banker"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.15935487827264505,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.97,"year":14,"after":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"blend":0.9762,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:05.715Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep the harbour\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.78,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.41,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.63,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.54,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.27,"2":0.62,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.25,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0.04,"4":0.93}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.3,"2":0.54,"3":0.06,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":197},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:05.912Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":61,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"danger":["treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":18},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep the harbour":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"+2","treasury":"-5"},"Sell the harbour":{"army":"-12","church":"-1","people":"-17","treasury":"+22"}},"petition":{"message":"We would like to buy the harbour. Outright. The gold would fill the treasury twice over. The fishermen, the customs men, and the navy would need somewhere else to be.","options":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"speaker":"The Foreign Banker"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the harbour","right":"Keep the harbour"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 18: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":764,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":196}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":61,"church":62,"people":66,"treasury":18},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.01,"church":1.94,"people":0.62,"treasury":3.87},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":1.6,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.6}},"tokens":2708,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":0,"people":-16,"treasury":23},"latency":{"advisor":196,"forecast":197},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-1,"people":-17,"treasury":22},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:07.713Z","v":3,"id":"4c9325cb-ec7a-4ddf-b149-9ad187cf22f0","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.4962275244473706,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.1,"year":15,"after":{"army":50,"church":72,"people":54,"treasury":33},"blend":0.1062,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:07.713Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1888,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.84,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.83,"2":0.1,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.26,"3":0.73,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.48,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.03,"3":0.83,"4":0.1}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:07.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-14","people":"-10","treasury":"+12"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+9","people":"+3","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":138}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":62,"people":50,"treasury":41},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":0.86,"people":1.15,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.72,"people":2.24,"treasury":1.22}},"tokens":2581,"applied":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":138,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-14,"people":-10,"treasury":12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":3,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:09.703Z","v":3,"id":"a80b6859-fcef-4fdd-b87f-30cd05d10888","card":{"i":3,"tag":"vain","left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's","message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","speaker":"The Tailor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.8390439157519833,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0,"year":16,"after":{"army":52,"church":74,"people":60,"treasury":43},"blend":0.0124,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:09.703Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":54,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Order the robes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wear last year's\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1926,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.6,"2":0.39,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.56,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.27,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.81,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.55,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.19,"3":0.8,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:09.891Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":72,"people":54,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Order the robes":{"army":"-7","church":"-5","people":"-9","treasury":"-12"},"Wear last year's":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"+9"}},"petition":{"message":"The new robes need ermine from the north, which is at war, and silk from the south, which is at plague. But Majesty, the drape.","options":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"speaker":"The Tailor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Order the robes","right":"Wear last year's"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":717,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":72,"people":54,"treasury":33},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.39,"church":1.58,"people":1.26,"treasury":1.03},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.1,"people":2.4,"treasury":2.79}},"tokens":2643,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-5,"people":-9,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":9}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:11.711Z","v":3,"id":"ab2df503-fd33-43dd-b991-90546b824d00","card":{"i":65,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him","message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.97,"mock":false,"roll":0.14534980662324815,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0,"year":17,"after":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":60,"treasury":41},"blend":0.6013999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:11.711Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Audit the treasurer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Congratulate him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.66,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.76,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.54,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:11.873Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":60,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Congratulate him":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-5"},"Audit the treasurer":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The accounts balance perfectly, Sire. To the penny. For the first time ever.","options":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Audit the treasurer","right":"Congratulate him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":703,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":174}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":52,"church":74,"people":60,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.86,"church":1.95,"people":1.9,"treasury":1.75},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":1.82,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2619,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":174,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:13.714Z","v":3,"id":"51270f5e-a87e-4c27-8ecb-cff2ae195b51","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.39273304839377055,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.1,"year":18,"after":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":63,"treasury":43},"blend":0.5898,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:13.714Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":60,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.8,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:13.848Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":60,"treasury":41},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-3"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"+1","church":"+2","people":"+2","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":127}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":51,"church":74,"people":60,"treasury":41},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.05,"church":2.15,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.8,"people":1.77,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":2,"church":3,"people":3,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":127,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.8,"prudenceConfidence":0.78}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:15.708Z","v":3,"id":"83925ff3-7f14-4479-b837-dea039d116e0","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.36,"mock":false,"roll":0.36448789990520525,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.95,"year":19,"after":{"army":52,"church":74,"people":58,"treasury":44},"blend":0.5841999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:15.708Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.81,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.54,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.75,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.85,"2":0.15,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:15.899Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":63,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-2","church":"-4","people":"-6","treasury":"0"},"Appoint a commission":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":63,"treasury":43},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.81,"church":1.67,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.95,"church":2.13,"people":1.92,"treasury":1.16}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":0.27}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:17.701Z","v":3,"id":"198a0697-23da-453e-b5d8-8b71afd37bda","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.17,"mock":false,"roll":0.8407124201726377,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.81,"year":20,"after":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":70,"treasury":35},"blend":0.4132,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:17.701Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":58,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"left":0.81,"right":0.19}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.78,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.67,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.02,"3":0.95,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.49,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.87,"2":0.13,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:17.911Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":58,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+1","people":"+11","treasury":"-10"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.17,"right":0.83}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":52,"church":74,"people":58,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.71,"people":1.03,"treasury":2.42},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":2.11,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.13}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":11,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.61,"prudenceConfidence":0.66}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:19.698Z","v":3,"id":"63d2884b-0c71-497a-a341-95f59ff9ab45","card":{"i":1,"tag":"vain","left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust","message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","speaker":"The Sculptor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.09535498270738985,"step":12,"trap":0.47,"want":0.06,"year":21,"after":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":77,"treasury":44},"blend":0.029,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:19.698Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":70,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"A modest bust\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.47,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.1,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.8,"2":0.13,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.88,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.5,"3":0.49,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.49,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.32,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":211},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:19.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":76,"people":70,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build it":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-9","treasury":"-18"},"A modest bust":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A statue of Your Majesty, forty feet high, at the harbour mouth. Ships would steer by your face.","options":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"speaker":"The Sculptor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build it","right":"A modest bust"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":51,"church":76,"people":70,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.76,"people":1.23,"treasury":0.5},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.04,"people":2.48,"treasury":2.68}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":211},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-9,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.87,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:21.701Z","v":3,"id":"8044b85f-5ae2-4ffc-bf98-19ecfb7b9eb8","card":{"i":63,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet","message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.5619776549508644,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0,"year":22,"after":{"army":49,"church":78,"people":77,"treasury":44},"blend":0.0062,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:21.701Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":77,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Purge the court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Enjoy the quiet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.28,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.59,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.42,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.66,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.81,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.76,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.86,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.63,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":204},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:21.905Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":77,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Enjoy the quiet":{"army":"-5","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-1"},"Purge the court":{"army":"-8","church":"-6","people":"-9","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"I have found no plots this month. Which is exactly what a plotter would want me to find.","options":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Purge the court","right":"Enjoy the quiet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":53,"church":77,"people":77,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.52,"people":1.25,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.59,"church":1.96,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.9}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":204},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:23.718Z","v":3,"id":"d0f21e3b-3ebb-4383-b8da-e301cae47068","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.4282797547477746,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0,"year":23,"after":{"army":48,"church":81,"people":84,"treasury":49},"blend":0.0124,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:23.718Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":77,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? 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Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.52,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.72,"2":0.13,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.84,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.79,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.45,"3":0.52,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.83,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.55,"3":0.41,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:23.950Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":77,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Read the letters":{"army":"-4","church":"-11","people":"-13","treasury":"-13"},"Leave the letters":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+6","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","options":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":351}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":49,"church":78,"people":77,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":1.09,"people":0.88,"treasury":0.92},"right":{"army":1.87,"church":2.15,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.37}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":3,"people":7,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":351,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-13,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":6,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:25.721Z","v":3,"id":"f31141f8-5558-4c87-9fed-e000c125f1de","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.89,"mock":false,"roll":0.006028639132861446,"step":12,"trap":0.13,"want":1,"year":24,"after":{"army":46,"church":84,"people":80,"treasury":49},"blend":0.9318,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:25.721Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.13,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.63,"3":0.25,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.84,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.72,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:25.922Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":773,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"left":0.89,"right":0.11}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":48,"church":81,"people":84,"treasury":49},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":2.14,"people":1.58,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.01,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":3,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-5,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.79}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:27.729Z","v":3,"id":"5421043d-7850-4bfd-90b0-04cb7a3dd1e0","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8816903296954679,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":1,"year":25,"after":{"army":47,"church":84,"people":79,"treasury":50},"blend":0.3862,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:27.729Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1939,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.7,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.86,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.53,"3":0.37,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.6,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.83,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.9,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":212},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:27.941Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Attend the council":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":768,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":139}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":46,"church":84,"people":80,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.69,"church":2.31,"people":1.8,"treasury":1.86},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":1.92,"people":1.87,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2707,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":139,"forecast":212},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:29.722Z","v":3,"id":"ae2630a1-f892-4caa-ac73-c2eb62ff5947","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8740895092365015,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.95,"year":26,"after":{"army":48,"church":84,"people":80,"treasury":51},"blend":0.361,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:29.722Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.77,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.69,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:29.895Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":79,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"+2","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":733,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":47,"church":84,"people":79,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.77,"church":2.13,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.81},"right":{"army":2.01,"church":1.93,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.96}},"tokens":2652,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.9,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:31.719Z","v":3,"id":"9207deea-9db9-474b-bb49-680b7b10ccff","card":{"i":0,"tag":"vain","left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils","message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","speaker":"The Court Painter"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.7,"mock":false,"roll":0.8289796012872992,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.47,"year":27,"after":{"army":49,"church":85,"people":85,"treasury":60},"blend":0.6126,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:31.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Commission it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Paint it in oils\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.78,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.67,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.44,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.8,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.6,"3":0.37,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.95,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.29,"3":0.67,"4":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":148},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:31.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":84,"danger":["church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Commission it":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"-7","treasury":"-12"},"Paint it in oils":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the great hall lacks a portrait worthy of your reign. I would need gold leaf. Quite a lot of gold leaf.","options":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"speaker":"The Court Painter"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Commission it","right":"Paint it in oils"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 84: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":48,"church":84,"people":80,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.78,"church":1.98,"people":1.44,"treasury":0.99},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.03,"people":2.34,"treasury":2.68}},"tokens":2721,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":148},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-7,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.06,"prudenceConfidence":0.39}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:33.720Z","v":3,"id":"039bc00d-6e4b-4db8-b9bc-fd0a1ada383a","card":{"i":83,"tag":"indolent","left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow","message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","speaker":"The Master of Horse"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.47,"mock":false,"roll":0.700064745169819,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.99,"year":28,"after":{"army":50,"church":85,"people":81,"treasury":52},"blend":0.6676,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:33.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Never\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tomorrow\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.81,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.82,"3":0.11,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.82,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.73,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.57,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.4,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.74,"2":0.26,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":175},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:33.895Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":85,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Never":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+6"},"Tomorrow":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal hunt is tomorrow. Or it could be next month. Or never.","options":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"speaker":"The Master of Horse"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Never","right":"Tomorrow"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.06,"probabilities":{"left":0.47,"right":0.53}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":49,"church":85,"people":85,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.84,"church":2.04,"people":2.08,"treasury":2.49},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.95,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.26}},"tokens":2665,"applied":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":175},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-5,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.06}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:35.723Z","v":3,"id":"5c1fa8cb-7c4a-489d-a748-cabc32bdcc2d","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.427187924425106,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.36,"year":29,"after":{"army":51,"church":79,"people":72,"treasury":44},"blend":0.7568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:35.723Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1918,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.27,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.14,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.2,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.76,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.48,"2":0.19,"3":0.15,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.73,"2":0.11,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.06,"2":0.39,"3":0.5,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.19,"2":0.39,"3":0.39,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.09,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.91,"2":0.08,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:35.880Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":85,"danger":["church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign","people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"0","church":"-7","people":"-10","treasury":"-9"},"Send grain":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"+2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 85: one more rise ends the reign; people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":759,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":190}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":85,"people":81,"treasury":52},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.38,"people":1.16,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.46,"people":2.17,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2677,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-6,"people":-9,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":190,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-10,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":2,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":0.27,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:37.721Z","v":3,"id":"5a098398-2116-44bc-b4a3-1cb19627251b","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.5049996819225764,"step":12,"trap":0.44,"want":1,"year":30,"after":{"army":52,"church":80,"people":72,"treasury":38},"blend":0.4606,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:37.721Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":72,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1900,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.44,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.85,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.72,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.58,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.87,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.7,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.54,"3":0.31,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":142},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:37.863Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":51,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":72,"treasury":44},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+2"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":181}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":51,"church":79,"people":72,"treasury":44},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.61,"church":1.84,"people":1.61,"treasury":2.16},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.01,"people":1.88,"treasury":1.4}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":0,"treasury":-6},"latency":{"advisor":181,"forecast":142},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:39.706Z","v":3,"id":"aea48e2e-85d7-439d-991d-eb4e017184cc","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.22183320895761338,"step":12,"trap":0.39,"want":0.12,"year":31,"after":{"army":50,"church":79,"people":68,"treasury":30},"blend":0.4858,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:39.706Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.39,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.36,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.72,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.28,"2":0.34,"3":0.22,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.52,"2":0.27,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.81,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.56,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.66,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.48,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:39.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":72,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-9"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":740,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":52,"church":80,"people":72,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.71,"church":1.82,"people":1.61,"treasury":1.26},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.04,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.54}},"tokens":2665,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-6}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.43}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:41.711Z","v":3,"id":"f52ed1c5-f3ff-4ef9-aa87-20d973d052dc","card":{"i":86,"tag":"any","left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away","message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.6545549771345938,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.49,"year":32,"after":{"army":52,"church":83,"people":71,"treasury":34},"blend":0.2172,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:41.711Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":68,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them land\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Turn them away\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.03,"probabilities":{"left":0.49,"right":0.51}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.73,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.64,"2":0.12,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.51,"1":0.42,"2":0.03,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.44,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.27,"2":0.2,"3":0.49,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.67,"2":0.08,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.49,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":187},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:41.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":32,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":68,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them land":{"army":"-11","church":"-12","people":"-17","treasury":"-14"},"Turn them away":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A plague ship in the harbour. The sailors beg to land.","options":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them land","right":"Turn them away"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":693,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":154}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":50,"church":79,"people":68,"treasury":30},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":1.04,"people":0.59,"treasury":0.83},"right":{"army":2.12,"church":2.28,"people":2.18,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":2,"church":4,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":154,"forecast":187},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-12,"people":-17,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.03,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:43.720Z","v":3,"id":"62ae8571-21eb-43c4-af6a-ccf92b5744d9","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.46846793997822367,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.37,"year":33,"after":{"army":59,"church":80,"people":58,"treasury":36},"blend":0.7544,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:43.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1930,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.25,"probabilities":{"left":0.37,"right":0.63}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.03,"3":0.68,"4":0.03}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.77,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.45,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.82,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.18,"3":0.77,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.28,"2":0.33,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.19,"2":0.39,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:43.918Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":33,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+6","church":"-4","people":"-14","treasury":"+1"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-9","church":"+1","people":"+9","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":745,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":52,"church":83,"people":71,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.46,"church":1.68,"people":0.82,"treasury":2.07},"right":{"army":1.26,"church":2.08,"people":2.75,"treasury":2.21}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":6,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":9,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.25,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:45.723Z","v":3,"id":"ec04fbe9-ebfa-4fe1-9d5e-66eab061d170","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8677746124367034,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.32,"year":34,"after":{"army":57,"church":77,"people":61,"treasury":36},"blend":0.1216,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:45.723Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.17,"2":0.07,"3":0.51,"4":0.16}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.5,"2":0.24,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.54,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.13,"3":0.67,"4":0.03}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.63,"3":0.15,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":265},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:45.988Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":34,"kingdom":{"army":59,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":58,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+6","people":"-6","treasury":"+6"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":59,"church":80,"people":58,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.67,"church":2.49,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.54},"right":{"army":1.77,"church":1.65,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.93}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":265},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":6,"people":-6,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.35,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:47.710Z","v":3,"id":"92f0ea7b-787a-4996-979a-732c2b1a7c00","card":{"i":21,"tag":"pious","left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse","message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.4935679247461926,"step":12,"trap":0.75,"want":0.95,"year":35,"after":{"army":60,"church":78,"people":69,"treasury":45},"blend":0.36719999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:47.710Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":61,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the exemption\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.75,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.83,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.79,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.34,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.23,"2":0.04,"3":0.5,"4":0.2}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.88,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.36,"3":0.3,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.32,"3":0.63,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.68,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.25,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":156},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:47.867Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":35,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":61,"treasury":36},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+2","church":"0","people":"+7","treasury":"+8"},"Grant the exemption":{"army":"-10","church":"+7","people":"-13","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"The church asks to be exempt from all taxes. In perpetuity. Backdated.","options":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the exemption","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":173}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":57,"church":77,"people":61,"treasury":36},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.15,"church":2.6,"people":0.93,"treasury":0.7},"right":{"army":2.17,"church":1.98,"people":2.6,"treasury":2.66}},"tokens":2587,"applied":{"army":3,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":173,"forecast":156},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":7,"people":-13,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":2,"church":0,"people":7,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:49.724Z","v":3,"id":"3ab4f8a4-8816-48c5-b7f2-f15e2c0874da","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.36,"mock":false,"roll":0.48849844308690105,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0,"year":36,"after":{"army":60,"church":77,"people":65,"treasury":49},"blend":0.22319999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:49.724Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":69,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.08,"3":0.83,"4":0.04}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.13,"3":0.74,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.28,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.18,"3":0.21,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.82,"2":0.06,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.38,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":136},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:49.859Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":36,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":69,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-2","church":"+10","people":"+8","treasury":"-9"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}}}},"latencyMs":141}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":60,"church":78,"people":69,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.82,"church":2.84,"people":2.63,"treasury":1.29},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.81,"people":1.58,"treasury":2.27}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":141,"forecast":136},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":10,"people":8,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.28}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:51.732Z","v":3,"id":"7756a68e-05f7-487a-bb74-6bc1d09af33b","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.9597136569887021,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.28,"year":37,"after":{"army":60,"church":80,"people":70,"treasury":51},"blend":0.1188,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:51.732Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"left":0.28,"right":0.72}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.87,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.64,"2":0.08,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.81,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.7,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.9,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.7,"3":0.2,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":134},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:51.865Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":37,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":77,"people":65,"treasury":49},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Wait for proof":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+4","treasury":"+1"},"Arrest them all":{"army":"-11","church":"-14","people":"-14","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":167}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":60,"church":77,"people":65,"treasury":49},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":0.86,"people":0.83,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.17,"people":2.36,"treasury":2.09}},"tokens":2629,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":167,"forecast":134},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-14,"people":-14,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.45,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:53.725Z","v":3,"id":"6cc3622e-c63f-493e-978a-c67c2550a562","card":{"i":33,"tag":"greedy","left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone","message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.71,"mock":false,"roll":0.10735280246227297,"step":12,"trap":0.73,"want":0.04,"year":38,"after":{"army":52,"church":79,"people":66,"treasury":59},"blend":0.45539999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:53.725Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find him guilty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the Duke alone\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.73,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.8,"2":0.16,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.25,"2":0.29,"3":0.23,"4":0.08}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.46,"2":0.49,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.05,"3":0.72,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:53.888Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":38,"kingdom":{"army":60,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find him guilty":{"army":"-9","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+7"},"Leave the Duke alone":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Duke has hidden wealth. If he were found guilty of something, the wealth would be yours. The other dukes would notice. The Duke's regiments would notice first.","options":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find him guilty","right":"Leave the Duke alone"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":758,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.42,"probabilities":{"left":0.71,"right":0.29}}}},"latencyMs":255}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":60,"church":80,"people":70,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.22,"church":1.83,"people":1.56,"treasury":2.61},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.99,"people":2,"treasury":1.69}},"tokens":2704,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":8},"latency":{"advisor":255,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":7},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.92,"prudenceConfidence":0.42}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:55.727Z","v":3,"id":"24927efc-ae03-4460-9028-696045798043","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.47394759557281096,"step":12,"trap":0.33,"want":0,"year":39,"after":{"army":53,"church":80,"people":68,"treasury":63},"blend":0.0124,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:55.727Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":66,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.33,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.78,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.83,"2":0.11,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.89,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.81,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.72,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":219},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:55.947Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":39,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":66,"treasury":59},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-13","church":"-5","people":"-11","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":52,"church":79,"people":66,"treasury":59},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.95,"church":1.62,"people":1.06,"treasury":0.91},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.02,"people":2.09,"treasury":2.26}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":219},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-5,"people":-11,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:57.726Z","v":3,"id":"cb1b4f43-a284-409e-8477-77f4388104da","card":{"i":30,"tag":"greedy","left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first","message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","speaker":"The Alchemist"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.21615723775537998,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.95,"year":40,"after":{"army":52,"church":76,"people":63,"treasury":59},"blend":0.9748,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:57.726Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fund the alchemist\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Show me first\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.23,"2":0.74,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.4,"2":0.47,"3":0.08,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.46,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.78,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.69,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.59,"2":0.22,"3":0.16,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.57,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:57.910Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":40,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":68,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Show me first":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+5"},"Fund the alchemist":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-6","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"I have turned lead into gold. Once. In private. I need only a thousand crowns to do it again.","options":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"speaker":"The Alchemist"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fund the alchemist","right":"Show me first"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":53,"church":80,"people":68,"treasury":63},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.61,"people":1.54,"treasury":1.56},"right":{"army":2.02,"church":2.08,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.42}},"tokens":2690,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:51:59.715Z","v":3,"id":"7ffb0ee0-9de9-44e1-9097-83e6849ed9c2","card":{"i":60,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the tonic","right":"Drink it","message":"Your tonic. It is the same tonic as always. I brewed it myself. As always.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.26,"mock":false,"roll":0.6375491531598052,"step":12,"trap":0.17,"want":0.07,"year":41,"after":{"army":53,"church":78,"people":64,"treasury":60},"blend":0.18780000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:59.715Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the tonic\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Drink it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.17,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.98,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.76,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.96,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.98,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.92,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.97,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:51:59.873Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":41,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:01.719Z","v":3,"id":"333f2571-6271-4d7d-aa3e-2589b0cf0290","card":{"i":12,"tag":"vain","left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk","message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.9070495946004056,"step":12,"trap":0.69,"want":0,"year":42,"after":{"army":49,"church":79,"people":65,"treasury":65},"blend":0.1178,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:01.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":78,"people":64,"treasury":60},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The mountain pass is impregnable. But they have called you a coward for not taking it.","options":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the pass","right":"Let them talk"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the pass\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them talk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.69,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.42,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.37,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.41,"2":0.48,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.67,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.83,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.58,"3":0.38,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:01.928Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":42,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":53,"church":78,"people":64,"treasury":60},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.87,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.58,"church":1.99,"people":1.97,"treasury":2.34}},"tokens":2597,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-5,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.63}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:03.721Z","v":3,"id":"d4a186ed-847a-4d6b-b1d9-0629b07cffd6","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.23,"mock":false,"roll":0.19759231507350994,"step":12,"trap":0.34,"want":0.03,"year":43,"after":{"army":40,"church":81,"people":74,"treasury":74},"blend":0.154,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:03.721Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":65,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.34,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.51,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.78,"2":0.11,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.32,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.81,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.28,"3":0.7,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.63,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.23,"3":0.71,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:03.915Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":43,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":79,"people":65,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"-8"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-10","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":694,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"left":0.23,"right":0.77}}}},"latencyMs":164}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":49,"church":79,"people":65,"treasury":65},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.85,"people":1.34,"treasury":1.37},"right":{"army":1.18,"church":2.08,"people":2.68,"treasury":2.67}},"tokens":2588,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":164,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":-8},"right":{"army":-10,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.54}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:05.717Z","v":3,"id":"c0b039f1-8470-4d02-b1c7-f2858d8b9ee6","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9415517056639473,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.24,"year":44,"after":{"army":40,"church":83,"people":73,"treasury":85},"blend":0.7112,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:05.717Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1903,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.24,"right":0.76}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.55,"2":0.43,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.78,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.5,"3":0.19,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.06,"3":0.92,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.15,"3":0.81,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":253},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:05.970Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":44,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":81,"danger":["church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":74,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"-2","treasury":"+10"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-6","church":"-1","people":"+11","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":729,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":40,"church":81,"people":74,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.89,"people":2.91,"treasury":1.08},"right":{"army":1.9,"church":2.07,"people":1.85,"treasury":2.85}},"tokens":2632,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":11},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":253},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-1,"people":11,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":10}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:07.719Z","v":3,"id":"61eb6ddd-b799-4d1a-ba7e-bd1d6759f8f0","card":{"i":41,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it","message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.5917710461122849,"step":12,"trap":0.64,"want":0.86,"year":45,"after":{"army":33,"church":80,"people":60,"treasury":97},"blend":0.8662,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:07.719Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1935,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.64,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.67,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.78,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.48,"2":0.28,"3":0.18,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.65,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.16,"3":0.8,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.04,"2":0.04,"3":0.76,"4":0.14}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":246},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:07.965Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":45,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":83,"danger":["church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":73,"treasury":85},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep it":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+10","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the grain":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-14","treasury":"+11"}},"petition":{"message":"The royal granary could be sold now at a fine price. Winter is, admittedly, coming.","options":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the grain","right":"Keep it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 83: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 85: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":213}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":40,"church":83,"people":73,"treasury":85},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.63,"people":0.81,"treasury":2.95},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.11,"people":2.8,"treasury":1.78}},"tokens":2706,"applied":{"army":-7,"church":-3,"people":-13,"treasury":12},"latency":{"advisor":213,"forecast":246},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-14,"treasury":11},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":10,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.73}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:09.732Z","v":3,"id":"725b8f16-2a14-4304-b596-7d3d17634929","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.08270078308866147,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.02,"year":46,"after":{"army":29,"church":73,"people":48,"treasury":75},"blend":0.6214000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:09.732Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":97},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1948,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.24,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.34,"2":0.26,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.37,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.24,"1":0.6,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.71,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.92,"1":0.07,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.75,"3":0.22,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:09.915Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":46,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":80,"danger":["church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 97: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":60,"treasury":97},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-5","church":"-8","people":"-13","treasury":"-23"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 80: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 97: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":778,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":33,"church":80,"people":60,"treasury":97},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.58,"church":1.32,"people":0.92,"treasury":0.09},"right":{"army":1.73,"church":2.06,"people":2.27,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-12,"treasury":-22},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-8,"people":-13,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:11.731Z","v":3,"id":"c5c1cf32-ff94-4c06-9041-b0fc7e51f68b","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.34608565028792393,"step":12,"trap":0.49,"want":0.03,"year":47,"after":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":50,"treasury":72},"blend":0.0238,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:11.731Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":48,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.49,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.09,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.4,"2":0.09,"3":0.44,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.57,"2":0.38,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.2,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.8099999999999999,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.71,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.72,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.37,"2":0.56,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:11.877Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":47,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":73,"people":48,"treasury":75},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"-1","church":"-10","people":"-14","treasury":"-15"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-6","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":250}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":29,"church":73,"people":48,"treasury":75},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":1.19,"people":0.83,"treasury":0.74},"right":{"army":1.46,"church":2,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.7}},"tokens":2605,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":250,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-10,"people":-14,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:13.733Z","v":3,"id":"20e3c6b3-9614-4051-95fb-0b3145824bf6","card":{"i":91,"tag":"any","left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf","message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","speaker":"The Merchant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.77,"mock":false,"roll":0.9882655969344041,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.76,"year":48,"after":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":44,"treasury":82},"blend":0.7662,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:13.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":50,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Welcome them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax the leaf\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"left":0.76,"right":0.24}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.68,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.68,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.18,"3":0.8,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":158},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:13.891Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":48,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":50,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax the leaf":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-7","treasury":"+9"},"Welcome them":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+3","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"Traders from a far land bring a strange leaf that is brewed in water. They say it will change everything.","options":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"speaker":"The Merchant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Welcome them","right":"Tax the leaf"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"left":0.77,"right":0.23}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":50,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.66,"people":2.22,"treasury":2.03},"right":{"army":1.91,"church":1.88,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.79}},"tokens":2592,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-6,"treasury":10},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":158},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":9}},"confidence":0.52,"prudenceConfidence":0.55}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:15.733Z","v":3,"id":"93f1d77a-90f9-4924-8506-736e0eb9de4f","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.21104831359293974,"step":12,"trap":0.14,"want":0.01,"year":49,"after":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":43,"treasury":72},"blend":0.6176,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:15.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.14,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.86,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.61,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.83,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.77,"2":0.09,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.64,"3":0.27,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":128},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:15.861Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":49,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"danger":["treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":44,"treasury":82},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"+2"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-1","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 82: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":44,"treasury":82},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":1.94,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":1.96,"people":1.92,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2664,"applied":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":128},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:17.715Z","v":3,"id":"0d371cc4-3010-459f-a393-8f20202b27bf","card":{"i":67,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars","message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","speaker":"The Astrologer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.020415164414221865,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0,"year":50,"after":{"army":19,"church":71,"people":39,"treasury":70},"blend":0,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:17.715Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":43,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Empty the table\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore the stars\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.42,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.38,"2":0.45,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.6,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.32,"2":0.61,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.57,"2":0.37,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.7,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:17.884Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":50,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":43,"treasury":72},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Empty the table":{"army":"-8","church":"-4","people":"-8","treasury":"-7"},"Ignore the stars":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-5","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"A traitor sits at your table. The stars are unclear on which chair.","options":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"speaker":"The Astrologer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Empty the table","right":"Ignore the stars"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":24,"church":74,"people":43,"treasury":72},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.36,"church":1.66,"people":1.31,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":1.51,"church":1.7,"people":1.57,"treasury":1.77}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-4,"people":-8,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:19.723Z","v":3,"id":"6210087d-d86a-4bc9-ae62-7af4c9bd3340","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.47329381578219687,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.01,"year":51,"after":{"army":22,"church":65,"people":48,"treasury":77},"blend":0.0038,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:19.723Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.17,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.6,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.29,"2":0.05,"3":0.43,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.48,"1":0.51,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.65,"2":0.19,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.3,"3":0.66,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.34,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.47,"3":0.52,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:19.862Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":51,"kingdom":{"army":19,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"danger":["army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":39,"treasury":70},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+2","church":"-7","people":"+8","treasury":"+6"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-21","church":"-1","people":"-18","treasury":"-20"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 19: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":751,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":19,"church":71,"people":39,"treasury":70},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.22,"church":1.89,"people":0.53,"treasury":0.34},"right":{"army":2.19,"church":1.43,"people":2.64,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-6,"people":9,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-21,"church":-1,"people":-18,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":2,"church":-7,"people":8,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:21.720Z","v":3,"id":"66901799-9c92-46b7-8c8a-a60d2f8ac92a","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.2907128587761707,"step":12,"trap":0.79,"want":0.98,"year":52,"after":{"army":14,"church":57,"people":40,"treasury":74},"blend":0.38480000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:21.720Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":48,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1902,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.79,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.74,"2":0.23,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.6,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.75,"2":0.22,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.77,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.54,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.83,"3":0.12,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":170},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:21.890Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":52,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"people":48,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+3","church":"+4","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-9","church":"-9","people":"-9","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":162}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":22,"church":65,"people":48,"treasury":77},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.23,"church":1.23,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.67},"right":{"army":2.28,"church":2.35,"people":2.5,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2603,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":-8,"people":-8,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":162,"forecast":170},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-9,"people":-9,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":3,"church":4,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:23.734Z","v":3,"id":"f3c9ace5-4047-4aed-86ce-7c7388cb4ffc","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.40530220629463454,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":0.74,"year":53,"after":{"army":14,"church":60,"people":40,"treasury":76},"blend":0.2812,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:23.734Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1940,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"left":0.74,"right":0.26}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.37,"2":0.58,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.34,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.62,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.64,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.84,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.51,"2":0.48,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:23.917Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":53,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":74},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Banish the prophet":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Reward the prophet":{"army":"-6","church":"-4","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","options":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"speaker":"A Prophet"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":754,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":14,"church":57,"people":40,"treasury":74},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.54,"church":1.67,"people":1.63,"treasury":1.49},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.15,"people":1.91,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2694,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-4,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.49,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:25.735Z","v":3,"id":"d492dd94-24c2-4116-8893-2abad0be42b1","card":{"i":24,"tag":"pious","left":"Kneel","right":"Stand","message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","speaker":"The Cardinal"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.09319749216608719,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.88,"year":54,"after":{"army":3,"church":65,"people":32,"treasury":77},"blend":0.33440000000000003,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:25.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Kneel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1909,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.14,"1":0.71,"2":0.14,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.26,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.33,"2":0.32,"3":0.21,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.23,"2":0.05,"3":0.65,"4":0.03}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.68,"2":0.25,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.68,"2":0.06,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.36,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.16,"2":0.35,"3":0.45,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.5700000000000001,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":224},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:25.958Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":54,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":60,"danger":["army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":40,"treasury":76},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Kneel":{"army":"-12","church":"+4","people":"-9","treasury":"0"},"Stand":{"army":"-4","church":"-9","people":"+3","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The Pope's envoy requires the crown to kneel. In public. On the cobbles.","options":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"speaker":"The Cardinal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Kneel","right":"Stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":14,"church":60,"people":40,"treasury":76},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.02,"church":2.37,"people":1.26,"treasury":2},"right":{"army":1.63,"church":1.25,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.63}},"tokens":2641,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":5,"people":-8,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":224},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":4,"people":-9,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-9,"people":3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.77,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:27.733Z","v":3,"id":"1c9ac417-6cf9-47bc-95a5-24acb8f4e8f4","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8176928317666463,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.86,"year":55,"after":{"army":2,"church":66,"people":34,"treasury":81},"blend":0.33299999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:27.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.49,"1":0.42,"2":0.06,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.73,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.33,"2":0.61,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.76,"2":0.11,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.12,"2":0.55,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.63,"2":0.21,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.67,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":164},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:27.897Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":55,"kingdom":{"army":3,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":65,"danger":["army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":32,"treasury":77},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept":{"army":"-16","church":"-4","people":"-12","treasury":"-9"},"Decline":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: army is at 3: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":171}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":3,"church":65,"people":32,"treasury":77},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.65,"church":1.67,"people":1.04,"treasury":1.25},"right":{"army":1.82,"church":1.97,"people":2.1,"treasury":2.22}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":171,"forecast":164},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-16,"church":-4,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.72,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:29.728Z","v":3,"id":"4d5620fd-33b8-435d-a769-52f3bbbd4a07","card":{"i":61,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough","message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Philippa III","wisdom":0.62},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7489617435277061,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":0.03,"year":56,"after":{"army":0,"church":61,"people":32,"treasury":84},"blend":0.6314,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:29.728Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"danger":["army is at 2: one more fall ends the reign","treasury is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":34,"treasury":81},"monarch":{"name":"Philippa III","wisdom":"Wary: heeds sober counsel about 62% of the time.","description":"Philippa III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Double the guard, triple the locks, move your bedchamber nightly. Nobody would know where you sleep. Including me.","options":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"speaker":"The Captain of the Guard"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Do it","right":"The guard is enough"},"instructions":"You are Philippa III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Do it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The guard is enough\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.17,"2":0.24,"3":0.48,"4":0.04}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.56,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.25,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.54,"2":0.37,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.16,"2":0.62,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.19,"2":0.51,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.64,"2":0.02,"3":0.03,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.07,"2":0.5,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:29.870Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":56,"kingdom":{"army":2,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":779,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":128}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"army"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"fa5213d9-c443-4d6f-8179-a6c2965c6d5b","before":{"army":2,"church":66,"people":34,"treasury":81},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.25,"church":1.6,"people":1.34,"treasury":0.81},"right":{"army":0.9,"church":1.52,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.2}},"tokens":2726,"applied":{"army":-12,"church":-5,"people":-2,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":128,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":-14},"right":{"army":-13,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:31.737Z","v":3,"id":"da01a1b1-eecf-4b2a-89a3-cd44f461f61b","card":{"i":18,"tag":"pious","left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet","message":"The stars say a great ruler will be undone by their own hand this year. But not you, Majesty. Obviously not you. Unless you doubt the stars.","speaker":"A Prophet"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.11992816988802857,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.03,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":50,"treasury":52},"blend":0.03,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:31.737Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Reward the prophet","right":"Banish the prophet"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Reward the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Banish the prophet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.5,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.29,"2":0.65,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.73,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.12,"2":0.8200000000000001,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.62,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.9,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:31.946Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":713,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":155}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.52,"church":1.79,"people":1.76,"treasury":1.38},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.07,"people":1.94,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2634,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":0,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":155,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-3,"people":-3,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:33.750Z","v":3,"id":"ff748715-4436-4bef-9de8-68c7e19a254d","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.09216164756048073,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.34,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":53},"blend":0.08259999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:33.750Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":50,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1893,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"left":0.34,"right":0.66}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.85,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.91,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.72,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.86,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.53,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":249},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:33.999Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":688,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":182}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":52,"church":52,"people":50,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.88,"church":1.95,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.54},"right":{"army":2,"church":2.01,"people":2.06,"treasury":1.97}},"tokens":2581,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":182,"forecast":249},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.31,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:35.745Z","v":3,"id":"ddf739cd-65f7-467c-a51f-26ffff9592e4","card":{"i":5,"tag":"vain","left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully","message":"I am writing the history of your reign. Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","speaker":"The Chronicler"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8951774742711673,"step":12,"trap":0.51,"want":0.7,"year":3,"after":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":51,"treasury":52},"blend":0.18519999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:35.745Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"There was no ford\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Record it truthfully\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.51,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"left":0.7,"right":0.3}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.44,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.49,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.55,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.47,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.72,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.59,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.77,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:35.940Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Would Your Majesty prefer that I record the lost battle at the ford, or that the ford never existed?","options":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"speaker":"The Chronicler"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"There was no ford","right":"Record it truthfully"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":144}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":52,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.71,"people":1.53,"treasury":1.85},"right":{"army":1.64,"church":1.92,"people":1.86,"treasury":1.84}},"tokens":2654,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":144,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-3,"people":-6,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.39,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:37.741Z","v":3,"id":"3e6263b1-9902-4169-b632-53e232c70f3c","card":{"i":54,"tag":"warlike","left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty","message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.25767406229563505,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":61,"treasury":61},"blend":0.2568,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:37.741Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sign the treaty\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.38,"3":0.48,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.82,"2":0.03,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.38,"2":0.5599999999999999,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.66,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.19,"3":0.76,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.75,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.65,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.17,"3":0.73,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:37.978Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":51,"treasury":52},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"+4","church":"-4","people":"-10","treasury":"-10"},"Sign the treaty":{"army":"-12","church":"+2","people":"+9","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"A peace treaty. Both sides reduce their armies by half. They will honour it, probably.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Sign the treaty"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":50,"church":53,"people":51,"treasury":52},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.36,"church":1.65,"people":1.15,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":0.96,"church":2.18,"people":2.72,"treasury":2.65}},"tokens":2595,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-4,"people":-10,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-12,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:39.729Z","v":3,"id":"153693f9-523d-4c1e-a883-b50020cbd4f4","card":{"i":42,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy","message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.18301052321682088,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":52,"people":50,"treasury":53},"blend":0.24339999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:39.729Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":61,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send an envoy\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1906,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.23,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.35,"2":0.18,"3":0.44,"4":0.02}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.5,"2":0.44,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.44,"2":0.54,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.91,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.88,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.49,"3":0.46,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.82,"2":0.07,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:39.921Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":61,"treasury":61},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","March on him":{"army":"+1","church":"-5","people":"-12","treasury":"-9"},"Send an envoy":{"army":"-5","church":"+1","people":"+5","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The border lord to the east has stopped sending tribute. He says his roads flooded. His roads did not flood.","options":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"March on him","right":"Send an envoy"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":701,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":39,"church":56,"people":61,"treasury":61},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.11,"church":1.56,"people":1.02,"treasury":1.22},"right":{"army":1.55,"church":2.08,"people":2.4,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-4,"people":-11,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-5,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:41.724Z","v":3,"id":"05312d89-c81b-496c-a508-c29a61a6d8bf","card":{"i":43,"tag":"warlike","left":"Attack","right":"Send grain","message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.8296330847329656,"step":12,"trap":0.52,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":40,"church":61,"people":58,"treasury":45},"blend":0.2512,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:41.724Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":50,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attack\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send grain\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1883,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.52,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.3,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.49,"2":0.13,"3":0.32,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.36,"2":0.46,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.84,"2":0.03,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.34,"3":0.64,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.3,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.81,"2":0.07,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.13,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:41.903Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"people":50,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Attack":{"army":"-3","church":"-10","people":"-12","treasury":"-10"},"Send grain":{"army":"-2","church":"+8","people":"+7","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring kingdom's harvest failed. They are weak. They are also our closest ally.","options":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Attack","right":"Send grain"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":690,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":41,"church":52,"people":50,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.74,"church":1.18,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.14},"right":{"army":1.81,"church":2.64,"people":2.55,"treasury":1.21}},"tokens":2573,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":8,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-10,"people":-12,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":-2,"church":8,"people":7,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.92}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:43.740Z","v":3,"id":"8e78a01c-eec6-4552-a1ad-63fb2aa053d1","card":{"i":52,"tag":"warlike","left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road","message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.7862719539306326,"step":12,"trap":0.24,"want":0.29,"year":7,"after":{"army":30,"church":71,"people":54,"treasury":38},"blend":0.7814,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:43.740Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":61,"people":58,"treasury":45},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The church asks the army to guard the pilgrim road. It would pull soldiers from the border.","options":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hold the border","right":"Guard the road"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the border\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Guard the road\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1904,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.24,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"left":0.29,"right":0.71}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.43,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.92,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.76,"2":0.21,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.3,"2":0.55,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.09,"3":0.81,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.55,"2":0.27,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.71,"2":0.28,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:43.932Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":40,"church":61,"people":58,"treasury":45},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.46,"church":1.24,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.94},"right":{"army":1.08,"church":2.75,"people":1.6,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2604,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":10,"people":-4,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":6,"church":-9,"people":-2,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-11,"church":9,"people":-5,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.41,"prudenceConfidence":0.84}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:45.741Z","v":3,"id":"c5550d98-65ee-4c81-805b-3c17ccc88d95","card":{"i":49,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread","message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.04,"mock":false,"roll":0.012652530376666471,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":1,"year":8,"after":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":35,"treasury":30},"blend":0.2512,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:45.741Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":54,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the troops\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1907,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.22,"2":0.16,"3":0.59,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.59,"2":0.32,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.67,"2":0.26,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.67,"1":0.33,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.51,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.01,"3":0.92,"4":0.05}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.76,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.9,"2":0.07,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:45.896Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":30,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":71,"people":54,"treasury":38},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send bread":{"army":"-6","church":"+5","people":"+12","treasury":"-11"},"Send the troops":{"army":"+4","church":"-9","people":"-20","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants riot over bread. I could restore order by nightfall. Some of the peasants would not see nightfall.","options":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the troops","right":"Send bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":30,"church":71,"people":54,"treasury":38},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.37,"church":1.26,"people":0.33,"treasury":1.21},"right":{"army":1.47,"church":2.42,"people":2.98,"treasury":1.1}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-8,"people":-19,"treasury":-8},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-9,"people":-20,"treasury":-9},"right":{"army":-6,"church":5,"people":12,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:47.730Z","v":3,"id":"e6ae4007-56bb-4c56-9058-e1ca964ea869","card":{"i":87,"tag":"any","left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it","message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.33,"mock":false,"roll":0.05819615934473821,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.04,"year":9,"after":{"army":29,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":20},"blend":0.2662,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:47.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":35,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Lower taxes\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Bank it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1884,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.04,"right":0.96}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.58,"2":0.36,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.22,"2":0.53,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.57,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.05,"3":0.88,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.65,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.93,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.08,"3":0.86,"4":0.03}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:47.896Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":35,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":35,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Bank it":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-3","treasury":"+11"},"Lower taxes":{"army":"-7","church":"-1","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The harvest was good. There is a surplus. For once.","options":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Lower taxes","right":"Bank it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":687,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.33,"probabilities":{"left":0.33,"right":0.67}}}},"latencyMs":180}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":35,"church":63,"people":35,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.44,"church":1.95,"people":2.84,"treasury":1.07},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":1.93,"people":1.73,"treasury":2.89}},"tokens":2571,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":0,"people":11,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":180,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-1,"people":10,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-3,"treasury":11}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.33}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:49.730Z","v":3,"id":"f31f468f-ecb6-4899-8f0a-72f6e17164ce","card":{"i":44,"tag":"warlike","left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff","message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","speaker":"The Marshal"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.3280088147742495,"step":12,"trap":0.71,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":29,"church":64,"people":53,"treasury":29},"blend":0.21999999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:49.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the sheriff\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.71,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.72,"2":0.07,"3":0.07,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.4,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.47,"2":0.46,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.77,"2":0.03,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.86,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.35,"3":0.5599999999999999,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.71,"1":0.29,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.25,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":147},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:49.878Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"danger":["treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":46,"treasury":20},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Send the army":{"army":"-11","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-20"},"Send the sheriff":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"}},"petition":{"message":"The bandits in the hills number about twelve. I propose four thousand men.","options":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"speaker":"The Marshal"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send the army","right":"Send the sheriff"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":122}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":29,"church":63,"people":46,"treasury":20},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":1.41,"people":0.86,"treasury":0.3},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.04,"people":2.49,"treasury":2.68}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":122,"forecast":147},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-20},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:51.730Z","v":3,"id":"1c2c6931-98b5-4404-9f4b-e4606da5eba9","card":{"i":51,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only","message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.11,"mock":false,"roll":0.8063357562963953,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":21,"church":66,"people":62,"treasury":31},"blend":0.30579999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:51.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":53,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conscript\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Volunteers only\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.14,"2":0.01,"3":0.77,"4":0.07}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.81,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.56,"2":0.42,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.2,"1":0.8,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.2,"3":0.7,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.56,"2":0.21,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.45,"3":0.32,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":226},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:51.955Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":64,"people":53,"treasury":29},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Conscript":{"army":"+9","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-5"},"Volunteers only":{"army":"-9","church":"+1","people":"+8","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"Conscription. Every third son. The fields would suffer but the ranks would swell.","options":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"speaker":"The Recruiting Sergeant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conscript","right":"Volunteers only"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.11,"right":0.89}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":29,"church":64,"people":53,"treasury":29},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.75,"church":1.43,"people":0.8,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.24,"church":2.05,"people":2.63,"treasury":2.1}},"tokens":2617,"applied":{"army":-8,"church":2,"people":9,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":226},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":9,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-9,"church":1,"people":8,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:53.748Z","v":3,"id":"4bb92ba7-fbdd-4f7f-896a-c155ad4c6eae","card":{"i":48,"tag":"warlike","left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers","message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6729725831315179,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.64,"year":12,"after":{"army":26,"church":74,"people":74,"treasury":33},"blend":0.15639999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:53.748Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":62,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sheep are training\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Discipline the soldiers\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"left":0.64,"right":0.36}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.16,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.35,"2":0.2,"3":0.41,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.22,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.6,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.89,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.38,"3":0.61,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.58,"2":0.34,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.62,"3":0.23,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:53.932Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":66,"people":62,"treasury":31},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Sheep are training":{"army":"0","church":"-8","people":"-12","treasury":"-7"},"Discipline the soldiers":{"army":"+4","church":"+7","people":"+11","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The soldiers are eating our sheep, Sire. They say it is training.","options":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sheep are training","right":"Discipline the soldiers"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":166}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":21,"church":66,"people":62,"treasury":31},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2,"church":1.37,"people":0.96,"treasury":1.4},"right":{"army":2.37,"church":2.6,"people":2.94,"treasury":2.08}},"tokens":2625,"applied":{"army":5,"church":8,"people":12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":166,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-8,"people":-12,"treasury":-7},"right":{"army":4,"church":7,"people":11,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.28,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:55.734Z","v":3,"id":"893ab051-372f-49b5-8589-88f802ae0374","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.22,"mock":false,"roll":0.04051630592696154,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":0.1,"year":13,"after":{"army":24,"church":67,"people":71,"treasury":34},"blend":0.1936,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:55.734Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":74,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.73,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.73,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.67,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.41,"2":0.53,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.21,"3":0.75,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.4,"3":0.58,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.85,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:55.896Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":74,"people":74,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Walk it":{"army":"-1","church":"+9","people":"+7","treasury":"0"},"Send a cousin":{"army":"-3","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.22,"right":0.78}}}},"latencyMs":175}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":26,"church":74,"people":74,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.35,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.73,"people":2.56,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-7,"people":-3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":175,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-1,"church":9,"people":7,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:57.744Z","v":3,"id":"96e6d8e5-073d-4e3a-8b62-dd2aed5fb59d","card":{"i":40,"tag":"greedy","left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete","message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","speaker":"The Guildmaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.45603416238438466,"step":12,"trap":0.68,"want":0.91,"year":14,"after":{"army":22,"church":68,"people":78,"treasury":33},"blend":0.208,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:57.744Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":67,"people":71,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The guild will pay handsomely for a law banning foreign cloth. The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ban foreign cloth\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them compete\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.68,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.91,"right":0.09}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.19,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.29,"2":0.6,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.58,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.9,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.82,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.25,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.61,"2":0.1,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.47000000000000003,"3":0.18,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":165},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:57.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":14,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The foreign cloth is cheaper and better, and it is what the people and the soldiers actually wear.","options":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"speaker":"The Guildmaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ban foreign cloth","right":"Let them compete"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":716,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":148}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":24,"church":67,"people":71,"treasury":34},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.31,"church":1.71,"people":0.97,"treasury":1.53},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.97,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.82}},"tokens":2637,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":148,"forecast":165},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:52:59.738Z","v":3,"id":"c8108731-ed97-4bac-8560-8a09d64678c1","card":{"i":9,"tag":"vain","left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet","message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","speaker":"A Child"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.88,"mock":false,"roll":0.3671806022145059,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":0.97,"year":15,"after":{"army":22,"church":70,"people":86,"treasury":30},"blend":0.8997999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:59.738Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":78,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix the roof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send the child a sweet\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.97,"right":0.03}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.84,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.84,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.4,"3":0.59,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.43,"2":0.55,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.35,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.9,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":185},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:52:59.923Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":15,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":68,"people":78,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fix the roof":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+7","treasury":"-4"},"Send the child a sweet":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"My mother says the king is very handsome and also that the roof leaks.","options":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"speaker":"A Child"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Fix the roof","right":"Send the child a sweet"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":700,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":22,"church":68,"people":78,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.9,"church":2.12,"people":2.58,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":1.84,"church":1.82,"people":1.59,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2611,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":8,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":185},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.94,"prudenceConfidence":0.77}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:01.738Z","v":3,"id":"cc1729ca-85bc-485b-aa94-9a56fc389fa0","card":{"i":47,"tag":"warlike","left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships","message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","speaker":"The Admiral"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.9618009177387059,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":0.98,"year":16,"after":{"army":23,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":21},"blend":0.9956,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:01.738Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn the port\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Escort the ships\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1929,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.11,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.34,"2":0.22,"3":0.38,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.6,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.58,"2":0.29,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.77,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.42,"1":0.44,"2":0.08,"3":0.05,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.76,"3":0.16,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.15,"2":0.45,"3":0.34,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.66,"2":0.17,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.46,"2":0.5,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":191},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:01.929Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":16,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":70,"danger":["people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":86,"treasury":30},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Burn the port":{"army":"0","church":"-9","people":"-15","treasury":"-10"},"Escort the ships":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+2","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"Pirates in the strait. Burning their port would end them, though the port is technically the Emperor's.","options":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"speaker":"The Admiral"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Burn the port","right":"Escort the ships"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 86: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":22,"church":70,"people":86,"treasury":30},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.96,"church":1.27,"people":0.77,"treasury":1.19},"right":{"army":2.05,"church":2.07,"people":2.14,"treasury":1.57}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":1,"church":-8,"people":-14,"treasury":-9},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":191},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":-9,"people":-15,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:03.730Z","v":3,"id":"01a4d6c1-fd6e-4b69-a12f-339538839153","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.3974332578825661,"step":12,"trap":0.43,"want":0.99,"year":17,"after":{"army":21,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":28},"blend":0.22559999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:03.730Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.43,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.62,"2":0.04,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.48,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.5,"2":0.44,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.81,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.93,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.69,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.62,"1":0.37,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.45,"3":0.53,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":180},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:03.911Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":17,"kingdom":{"army":23,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":62,"people":72,"treasury":21},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"-3","church":"0","people":"+3","treasury":"+6"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-15","church":"-7","people":"-14","treasury":"-19"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":698,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":222}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":23,"church":62,"people":72,"treasury":21},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.79,"church":1.41,"people":0.85,"treasury":0.38},"right":{"army":1.72,"church":2.03,"people":2.25,"treasury":2.52}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":7},"latency":{"advisor":222,"forecast":180},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":-3,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":6}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:05.733Z","v":3,"id":"bfb4d98c-a7a1-408b-9bc1-4b65e02c5255","card":{"i":23,"tag":"pious","left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky","message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.23641212983684046,"step":12,"trap":0.56,"want":0.02,"year":18,"after":{"army":25,"church":59,"people":81,"treasury":27},"blend":0.04340000000000001,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:05.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":63,"people":76,"treasury":28},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A comet. The clergy say it foretells doom unless the army is disbanded, as a gesture of faith.","options":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Disband the army","right":"It is a rock in the sky"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Disband the army\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"It is a rock in the sky\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.56,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.88,"1":0.1,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.53,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.15,"2":0.07,"3":0.52,"4":0.19}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.21,"1":0.59,"2":0.07,"3":0.12,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.46,"2":0.42,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.44,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.14,"2":0.11,"3":0.66,"4":0.04}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.69,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":174},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:05.908Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":18,"kingdom":{"army":21,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":720,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":156}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":21,"church":63,"people":76,"treasury":28},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.14,"church":2.61,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.52},"right":{"army":2.29,"church":1.62,"people":2.34,"treasury":1.85}},"tokens":2658,"applied":{"army":4,"church":-4,"people":5,"treasury":-1},"latency":{"advisor":156,"forecast":174},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-22,"church":7,"people":-10,"treasury":6},"right":{"army":3,"church":-5,"people":4,"treasury":-2}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:07.734Z","v":3,"id":"c8d56cf3-134a-414c-8397-d5e647956371","card":{"i":84,"tag":"any","left":"Accept","right":"Decline","message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.98,"mock":false,"roll":0.9076952568233678,"step":12,"trap":0.46,"want":0.07,"year":19,"after":{"army":26,"church":60,"people":85,"treasury":29},"blend":0.7797999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:07.734Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":59,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":27},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Our neighbour proposes a marriage between your heir and theirs. They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1921,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.46,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.77,"2":0.13,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.63,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.67,"2":0.12,"3":0.04,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.45,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.76,"2":0.12,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.7,"3":0.21,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":153},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:07.887Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":19,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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They ask only a modest dowry, three provinces, and the right to garrison your northern forts.","options":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":25,"church":59,"people":81,"treasury":27},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.21,"church":1.71,"people":1.08,"treasury":1.2},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.01,"people":2.21,"treasury":2.12}},"tokens":2667,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":153},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-9,"church":-3,"people":-11,"treasury":-10},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:09.733Z","v":3,"id":"1c1db224-d633-41d4-9eff-c5fe8fda9386","card":{"i":68,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Read the letters","right":"Leave the letters","message":"I could read every letter in the realm. It would take a thousand clerks, and the people would find out.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.2012953643339559,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.92,"year":20,"after":{"army":25,"church":50,"people":67,"treasury":16},"blend":0.9824,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:09.733Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":20,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Read the letters\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the letters\". 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:11.780Z","v":3,"id":"a1dfa3b4-52f6-4f26-b4bd-309e1f7bcb45","card":{"i":36,"tag":"greedy","left":"Build the fleet","right":"Keep the army funded","message":"A fleet of trade ships. The army's budget would cover it, if the army did not mind.","speaker":"The Shipwright"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.2041914386558017,"step":12,"trap":0.42,"want":0.09,"year":21,"after":{"army":32,"church":44,"people":62,"treasury":9},"blend":0.0276,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:11.780Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":21,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":753,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":150}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":25,"church":50,"people":67,"treasury":16},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.52,"church":1.47,"people":1.49,"treasury":0.39},"right":{"army":2.51,"church":1.45,"people":1.48,"treasury":1.33}},"tokens":2691,"applied":{"army":7,"church":-6,"people":-5,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":150,"forecast":167},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-18,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":-19},"right":{"army":6,"church":-7,"people":-6,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:13.746Z","v":3,"id":"a6c703f7-4509-4101-bd74-00433bd81d87","card":{"i":62,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse","message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.07344914460628482,"step":12,"trap":0.35,"want":0.27,"year":22,"after":{"army":32,"church":46,"people":64,"treasury":9},"blend":0.8004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:13.746Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the horse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1932,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.35,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.27,"right":0.73}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.8,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.26,"2":0.62,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.91,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.25,"2":0.71,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.36,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":182},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:13.929Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":22,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":62,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the horse":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-5"},"Refuse the horse":{"army":"-1","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"A gift from the neighbouring queen: a very fine horse. It has not been checked for anything.","options":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse the horse","right":"Accept the horse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":187}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":32,"church":44,"people":62,"treasury":9},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.93,"church":2.05,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":1.78,"church":1.83,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.56}},"tokens":2676,"applied":{"army":0,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":187,"forecast":182},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.46,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:15.755Z","v":3,"id":"af91ea6c-9719-4f88-894e-553660c5121d","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.40669957482366326,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.03,"year":23,"after":{"army":33,"church":51,"people":66,"treasury":7},"blend":0.006599999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:15.755Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1937,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.78,"2":0.16,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.74,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.57,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.15,"2":0.13,"3":0.65,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.48,"2":0.35,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.47,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.1,"2":0.7,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.53,"2":0.06,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":189},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:15.944Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":23,"kingdom":{"army":32,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":64,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"0","church":"+4","people":"+1","treasury":"-3"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-10","church":"+7","people":"-5","treasury":"-16"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":750,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":32,"church":46,"people":64,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.16,"church":2.57,"people":1.58,"treasury":0.68},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.37,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.71}},"tokens":2687,"applied":{"army":1,"church":5,"people":2,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":189},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":7,"people":-5,"treasury":-16},"right":{"army":0,"church":4,"people":1,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:17.736Z","v":3,"id":"3446be84-24f9-4d6a-b463-e8f29b830a4f","card":{"i":45,"tag":"warlike","left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology","message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.6478799428071971,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.99,"year":24,"after":{"army":28,"church":53,"people":71,"treasury":8},"blend":0.21779999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:17.736Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"danger":["treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":66,"treasury":7},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"An insult from the Emperor's court. Something about your horse. War would be justified, technically.","options":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare war","right":"Demand an apology"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Demand an apology\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1920,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.54,"2":0.05,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.39,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.66,"2":0.19,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.66,"1":0.33,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.59,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.95,"1":0.05,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.83,"3":0.1,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":140},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:17.876Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":24,"kingdom":{"army":33,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 7: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":212}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":33,"church":51,"people":66,"treasury":7},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.9,"church":1.1,"people":0.34,"treasury":0.06},"right":{"army":1.53,"church":2.08,"people":2.35,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2661,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":212,"forecast":140},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-13,"church":-11,"people":-20,"treasury":-23},"right":{"army":-6,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:19.750Z","v":3,"id":"e5f8d34d-0e3d-486b-8564-823e3746d36a","card":{"i":56,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof","message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.39204080850081424,"step":12,"trap":0.29,"want":0.99,"year":25,"after":{"army":28,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":9},"blend":0.21779999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:19.750Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"danger":["treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":71,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"I have a list of names. Some are certainly traitors. Some are certainly not. I cannot yet tell you which is which.","options":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Arrest them all","right":"Wait for proof"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Arrest them all\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for proof\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.29,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.26,"2":0.55,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.25,"1":0.59,"2":0.15,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.76,"2":0.01,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.78,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.03,"2":0.49,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.5,"1":0.48,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.52,"3":0.27,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":206},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:19.956Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":25,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":757,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":28,"church":53,"people":71,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.2,"church":0.93,"people":0.78,"treasury":0.53},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.13,"people":2.43,"treasury":2.03}},"tokens":2699,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":6,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":206},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-13,"people":-15,"treasury":-18},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":5,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:21.740Z","v":3,"id":"a30c5624-94cc-402a-ad33-d454f19a143d","card":{"i":46,"tag":"warlike","left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war","message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","speaker":"The Armourer"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.8308264115891439,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.98,"year":26,"after":{"army":27,"church":57,"people":82,"treasury":13},"blend":0.21559999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:21.740Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Buy the cannon\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Wait for a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.28,"1":0.27,"2":0.17,"3":0.26,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.31,"2":0.55,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.53,"2":0.29,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.54,"1":0.44,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.06,"2":0.8,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.04,"2":0.44,"3":0.48,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"0":0.98,"1":0.02,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.45,"3":0.42,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":168},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:21.908Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":26,"kingdom":{"army":28,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":77,"treasury":9},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Buy the cannon":{"army":"-6","church":"-11","people":"-18","treasury":"-24"},"Wait for a war":{"army":"-2","church":"0","people":"+4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"New cannon. They would cost the treasury half of everything, and we are at peace with everyone.","options":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"speaker":"The Armourer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Buy the cannon","right":"Wait for a war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":748,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":184}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":28,"church":56,"people":77,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.46,"church":1.12,"people":0.5,"treasury":0.02},"right":{"army":1.8,"church":2,"people":2.37,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2682,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":1,"people":5,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":184,"forecast":168},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-6,"church":-11,"people":-18,"treasury":-24},"right":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:23.739Z","v":3,"id":"52a37d1f-245c-4c86-8929-e1d620fece34","card":{"i":64,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them","message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.5461396254292288,"step":12,"trap":0.26,"want":0.88,"year":27,"after":{"army":26,"church":52,"people":70,"treasury":8},"blend":0.9346,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:23.739Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Meet them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1934,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.26,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.59,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.46,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.5,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.28,"2":0.59,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.31,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.16,"2":0.27,"3":0.45999999999999996,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.41,"2":0.45,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.58,"2":0.37,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":233},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:23.971Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":27,"kingdom":{"army":27,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":57,"danger":["people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":82,"treasury":13},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-2","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-6"},"Meet them":{"army":"-5","church":"-3","people":"+3","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"The villages ask for a meeting with the crown. All of the villages. At once.","options":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"speaker":"The Peasant Delegation"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Refuse","right":"Meet them"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 82: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 13: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":771,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":204}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":27,"church":57,"people":82,"treasury":13},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.46,"people":0.95,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.62,"church":1.79,"people":2.24,"treasury":1.35}},"tokens":2705,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":204,"forecast":233},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-5,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.76,"prudenceConfidence":0.9}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:25.785Z","v":3,"id":"6fa48f9d-d589-46d8-8f47-11e91c46e42e","card":{"i":90,"tag":"any","left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms","message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","speaker":"The Stonemason"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.7716389423963714,"step":12,"trap":0.12,"want":0.98,"year":28,"after":{"army":25,"church":52,"people":70,"treasury":9},"blend":0.21559999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:25.785Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Repair the tower\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Move rooms\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1924,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.12,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.62,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.17,"2":0.75,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.18,"2":0.75,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.34,"2":0.4,"3":0.23,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.92,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.71,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.27,"1":0.71,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.13,"2":0.65,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":192},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:25.977Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":28,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":52,"danger":["treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":70,"treasury":8},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Move rooms":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"0"},"Repair the tower":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-15"}},"petition":{"message":"The castle wall is sound. The tower is not. I mention this because you are standing in it.","options":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"speaker":"The Stonemason"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Repair the tower","right":"Move rooms"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":742,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":26,"church":52,"people":70,"treasury":8},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.7,"church":1.81,"people":1.84,"treasury":0.75},"right":{"army":1.85,"church":1.95,"people":1.95,"treasury":2.01}},"tokens":2666,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":192},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-15},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.96,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:27.759Z","v":3,"id":"5c9ca74d-4d9d-4523-8295-3ce7e568a9b7","card":{"i":50,"tag":"warlike","left":"March on the Duke","right":"Invite him to court","message":"The Duke has raised his own guard. It is probably for his own protection. Probably.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.672375188392945,"step":12,"trap":0.54,"want":1,"year":29,"after":{"army":26,"church":53,"people":74,"treasury":6},"blend":0.21999999999999997,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:27.759Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Invite him to court\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"March on the Duke\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. 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A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1938,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.54,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.56,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.41,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.55,"2":0.13,"3":0.24,"4":0.01}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.25,"2":0.52,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.46,"2":0.47,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0.23,"1":0.74,"2":0.03,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.65,"3":0.3,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.81,"1":0.19,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.36,"2":0.51,"3":0.09,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:27.942Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":29,"kingdom":{"army":25,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 9: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":747,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":239}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":25,"church":52,"people":70,"treasury":9},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.56,"church":1.44,"people":0.8,"treasury":0.21},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":2.01,"people":2.25,"treasury":1.66}},"tokens":2685,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":4,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":239,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-7,"people":-14,"treasury":-21},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":3,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:29.736Z","v":3,"id":"8bc2eded-c978-4af2-8dab-e4aac3edda4c","card":{"i":92,"tag":"any","left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it","message":"I have built a machine that prints books. The church would like it burned. The merchants would like six.","speaker":"The Scholar"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.92,"mock":false,"roll":0.2900855708464738,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.41,"year":30,"after":{"army":24,"church":43,"people":81,"treasury":6},"blend":0.8078,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:29.736Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Protect the machine","right":"Burn it"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Protect the machine\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Burn it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1922,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"left":0.41,"right":0.59}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.29,"2":0.64,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.6,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.08,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.86,"2":0.05,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.14,"2":0.21,"3":0.62,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.53,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.18,"2":0.08,"3":0.6900000000000001,"4":0.03}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.23,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.77,"2":0.15,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.12,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.3,"2":0.3,"3":0.34,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.58,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.38,"2":0.48,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":237},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:29.973Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":30,"kingdom":{"army":26,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":741,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"left":0.92,"right":0.08}}}},"latencyMs":153}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":26,"church":53,"people":74,"treasury":6},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.08,"people":2.47,"treasury":1.95},"right":{"army":2.08,"church":2.53,"people":1.23,"treasury":1.58}},"tokens":2663,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-10,"people":7,"treasury":0},"latency":{"advisor":153,"forecast":237},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-11,"people":6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":6,"people":-9,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.18,"prudenceConfidence":0.83}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:31.735Z","v":3,"id":"451cd272-92b0-4b1b-a1a9-07830acf8988","card":{"i":55,"tag":"warlike","left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament","message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","speaker":"The Old Knight"},"king":{"flaw":"warlike","name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":0.78},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.588537268707741,"step":12,"trap":0.59,"want":1,"year":31,"after":{"army":29,"church":33,"people":66,"treasury":0},"blend":0.8284,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:31.735Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are Sigrun II, a monarch who sees every problem as something the army can solve. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Find them a war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hold the tournament\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1947,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.59,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":2.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.22,"2":0.04,"3":0.62,"4":0.05}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.35,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.69,"2":0.25,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.71,"2":0.14,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.4,"1":0.58,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.79,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.24,"2":0.55,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.15,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.61,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":209},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:31.943Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":31,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"danger":["people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign","treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":81,"treasury":6},"monarch":{"name":"Sigrun II","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 78% of the time.","description":"Sigrun II sees every problem as something the army can solve.","temperament":"Warlike"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Find them a war":{"army":"+4","church":"-11","people":"-16","treasury":"-22"},"Hold the tournament":{"army":"-8","church":"0","people":"-1","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Tournament season. The knights want a real war instead; the practice is dull.","options":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"speaker":"The Old Knight"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Find them a war","right":"Hold the tournament"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 81: one more rise ends the reign; treasury is at 6: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":775,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":133}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"treasury"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"3b6d9eb8-a676-4903-b044-304923ccc822","before":{"army":24,"church":43,"people":81,"treasury":6},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":2.37,"church":1.05,"people":0.64,"treasury":0.18},"right":{"army":1.35,"church":1.96,"people":1.95,"treasury":1.36}},"tokens":2722,"applied":{"army":5,"church":-10,"people":-15,"treasury":-21},"latency":{"advisor":133,"forecast":209},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":4,"church":-11,"people":-16,"treasury":-22},"right":{"army":-8,"church":0,"people":-1,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.57}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:33.752Z","v":3,"id":"c37bc6b2-be6d-499b-8daf-315fb7a9815a","card":{"i":81,"tag":"indolent","left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge","message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.32,"mock":false,"roll":0.011413334155267352,"step":12,"trap":0.28,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":56},"blend":0.8232,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:33.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Manage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Rebuild the bridge\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.28,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.75,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.74,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.72,"2":0.21,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.89,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.81,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.84,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.33,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":132},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:33.885Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Manage":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-8","treasury":"+5"},"Rebuild the bridge":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"+10","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The bridge fell in. The other bridge is only four hours away. We can manage.","options":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Manage","right":"Rebuild the bridge"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.35,"probabilities":{"left":0.32,"right":0.68}}}},"latencyMs":202}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.83,"people":1.3,"treasury":2.4},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.01,"people":2.81,"treasury":1.05}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-7,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":202,"forecast":132},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-8,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":10,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.35}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:35.739Z","v":3,"id":"8236290a-a0b7-4b28-8963-d50ea71b31e6","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.10372569503514395,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.39,"year":2,"after":{"army":45,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":58},"blend":0.2938,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:35.739Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1915,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"left":0.39,"right":0.61}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.86,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.5,"2":0.43,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.77,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.28,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.21,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.2,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.38,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:35.905Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":49,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":43,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"+6","treasury":"-4"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"+1"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":706,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":49,"church":49,"people":43,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.59,"church":1.49,"people":0.9,"treasury":2.06},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.9,"people":2.47,"treasury":1.64}},"tokens":2621,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-5,"people":-12,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":6,"treasury":-4}},"confidence":0.21,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:37.752Z","v":3,"id":"cd3efe65-cce7-4b0e-b3c1-11b616c57980","card":{"i":27,"tag":"pious","left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand","message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.73,"mock":false,"roll":0.10604763183030497,"step":12,"trap":0.7,"want":0.31,"year":3,"after":{"army":42,"church":49,"people":27,"treasury":64},"blend":0.4192,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:37.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Make the donation\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let the record stand\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.7,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.37,"probabilities":{"left":0.31,"right":0.69}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.3,"2":0.64,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.23,"2":0.08,"3":0.59,"4":0.05}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.51,"2":0.19,"3":0.21,"4":0.02}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.51,"3":0.27,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.16,"3":0.61,"4":0.01}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.53,"3":0.19,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":157},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:37.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":45,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":31,"treasury":58},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Make the donation":{"army":"-4","church":"+4","people":"-5","treasury":"+5"},"Let the record stand":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"0","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"The monks have found that Your Majesty's grandfather was born out of wedlock. The record can be corrected, for a donation.","options":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Make the donation","right":"Let the record stand"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":704,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"left":0.73,"right":0.27}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":45,"church":44,"people":31,"treasury":58},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":2.36,"people":1.62,"treasury":2.41},"right":{"army":1.71,"church":1.6,"people":2.01,"treasury":1.88}},"tokens":2615,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":5,"people":-4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":157},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":4,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":0.37,"prudenceConfidence":0.46}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:39.745Z","v":3,"id":"6b8c78bd-5c55-4114-944a-4298b489641f","card":{"i":59,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer","message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.07,"mock":false,"roll":0.04435349020596835,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0,"year":4,"after":{"army":42,"church":56,"people":27,"treasury":65},"blend":0.0182,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:39.745Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":27,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Question the bishop\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the prayer\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.85,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.36,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.65,"2":0.3,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.32,"2":0.64,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.42,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.85,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.82,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.9,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":208},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:39.953Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":49,"people":27,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Accept the prayer":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"-1","treasury":"0"},"Question the bishop":{"army":"-2","church":"-8","people":"-4","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The clergy prayed for Your Majesty's health this morning. They did not pray for it last week.","options":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Question the bishop","right":"Accept the prayer"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}}}},"latencyMs":195}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":42,"church":49,"people":27,"treasury":64},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.87,"church":1.36,"people":1.69,"treasury":1.84},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.49,"people":1.93,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":0,"church":7,"people":0,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":195,"forecast":208},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-4,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":-1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:41.744Z","v":3,"id":"894bb5f7-b111-4034-b674-b428c9e58297","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.5694498748838246,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":1,"year":5,"after":{"army":41,"church":55,"people":26,"treasury":62},"blend":0.7452,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:41.744Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":27,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1889,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.8,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.92,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.74,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.7,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.33,"2":0.63,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.83,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":186},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:41.930Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":42,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"people":27,"treasury":65},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-2","people":"-2","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":178}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":42,"church":56,"people":27,"treasury":65},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.87,"people":1.85,"treasury":1.7},"right":{"army":1.97,"church":2.01,"people":2.04,"treasury":1.95}},"tokens":2575,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":178,"forecast":186},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-2,"people":-2,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:43.739Z","v":3,"id":"1de02253-ae47-4199-a4a5-a4a8290ef869","card":{"i":79,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission","message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","speaker":"The Chancellor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.19,"mock":false,"roll":0.20689619907602186,"step":12,"trap":0.22,"want":0.96,"year":6,"after":{"army":40,"church":51,"people":21,"treasury":64},"blend":0.7597999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:43.739Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":26,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The old laws contradict the new laws. Someone should sort them out. It would take years.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"speaker":"The Chancellor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Appoint a commission"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Appoint a commission\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1898,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.22,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"left":0.96,"right":0.04}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.17,"2":0.83,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.42,"2":0.54,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.45,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.7,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.24,"2":0.69,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.77,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.72,"2":0.28,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":171},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:43.910Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":41,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"left":0.19,"right":0.81}}}},"latencyMs":129}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":41,"church":55,"people":26,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.83,"church":1.61,"people":1.49,"treasury":2.07},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.2,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.29}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":-5,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":129,"forecast":171},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-6,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":-2,"treasury":-9}},"confidence":0.93,"prudenceConfidence":0.62}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:45.737Z","v":3,"id":"21d87225-e7b5-449c-8c73-f433c1421245","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.1,"mock":false,"roll":0.2982271804514691,"step":12,"trap":0.4,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":36,"church":50,"people":17,"treasury":66},"blend":0.766,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:45.737Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":21,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.4,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.37,"2":0.62,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.78,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.69,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.38,"2":0.57,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.87,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.25,"2":0.67,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.58,"3":0.25,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.42,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.6,"2":0.39,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":172},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:45.909Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":21,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-5","church":"-2","people":"-5","treasury":"+1"},"Investigate":{"army":"0","church":"-1","people":"-2","treasury":"-7"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}}}},"latencyMs":168}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":40,"church":51,"people":21,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.84,"people":1.62,"treasury":2.07},"right":{"army":1.96,"church":1.95,"people":1.82,"treasury":1.42}},"tokens":2594,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-1,"people":-4,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":168,"forecast":172},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-2,"people":-5,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":0,"church":-1,"people":-2,"treasury":-7}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.8}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:47.737Z","v":3,"id":"7f33469f-1e4e-4039-885e-4d3a78e4c9ec","card":{"i":66,"tag":"paranoid","left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him","message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0.78,"mock":false,"roll":0.4913786674832865,"step":12,"trap":0.67,"want":0.07,"year":8,"after":{"army":39,"church":46,"people":11,"treasury":62},"blend":0.2546,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:47.737Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dismiss the general\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1916,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.67,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.7,"2":0.16,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.46,"3":0.37,"4":0.01}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.18,"2":0.68,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.33,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.44,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.43,"2":0.47,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.3,"2":0.49,"3":0.18,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.4,"2":0.57,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":210},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:47.947Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":36,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"danger":["people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":17,"treasury":66},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep him":{"army":"+2","church":"-5","people":"-7","treasury":"-5"},"Dismiss the general":{"army":"-8","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"-2"}},"petition":{"message":"The army loves you, Sire. They chant your name. They also chant mine, but quieter.","options":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dismiss the general","right":"Keep him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 17: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"left":0.78,"right":0.22}}}},"latencyMs":146}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":36,"church":50,"people":17,"treasury":66},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.33,"church":1.79,"people":1.62,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":2.2,"church":1.62,"people":1.44,"treasury":1.61}},"tokens":2653,"applied":{"army":3,"church":-4,"people":-6,"treasury":-4},"latency":{"advisor":146,"forecast":210},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-8,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":2,"church":-5,"people":-7,"treasury":-5}},"confidence":0.85,"prudenceConfidence":0.56}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:49.753Z","v":3,"id":"e95d7367-ab4d-40ae-b4e6-cf0a6bda6f3b","card":{"i":72,"tag":"indolent","left":"Later","right":"Fix it now","message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","speaker":"The Steward"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":0.26},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.21754074382393895,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.98,"year":9,"after":{"army":35,"church":35,"people":0,"treasury":50},"blend":0.7252,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:49.753Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are Edmund IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Later\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fix it now\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.29,"1":0.38,"2":0.32,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.63,"1":0.35,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.61,"3":0.32,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.87,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.11,"3":0.83,"4":0.04}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.33,"1":0.48,"2":0.1,"3":0.09,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.39,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":199},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:49.952Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"danger":["people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":11,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Edmund IV","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 26% of the time.","description":"Edmund IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Later":{"army":"-5","church":"-12","people":"-19","treasury":"-13"},"Fix it now":{"army":"+1","church":"+3","people":"+10","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The dam upstream has a crack. It could be fixed now, cheaply, or later, expensively, or never, dramatically.","options":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"speaker":"The Steward"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Later","right":"Fix it now"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 11: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":746,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"9537577a-01f5-4176-bbd6-dbe4dbf3e6d5","before":{"army":39,"church":46,"people":11,"treasury":62},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.6,"church":1.04,"people":0.39,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":2.09,"church":2.25,"people":2.87,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2665,"applied":{"army":-4,"church":-11,"people":-18,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":199},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-12,"people":-19,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":1,"church":3,"people":10,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.97,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:51.744Z","v":3,"id":"93eae37a-326c-4e7c-a69e-35d9b318c800","card":{"i":95,"tag":"any","left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse","message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.86,"mock":false,"roll":0.25656652235119637,"step":12,"trap":0.36,"want":0.99,"year":1,"after":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":40},"blend":0.9470999999999998,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:51.744Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay the tribute\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Refuse\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.36,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.63,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.33,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.58,"2":0.3,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.61,"2":0.29,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.6,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.32,"2":0.55,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.55,"2":0.19,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.92,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.18,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.29,"2":0.19,"3":0.45,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":196},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:51.939Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Refuse":{"army":"-8","church":"-5","people":"-8","treasury":"0"},"Pay the tribute":{"army":"-3","church":"-1","people":"-6","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor requests tribute. A modest sum. He also requested it from the last king, who refused, briefly.","options":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Pay the tribute","right":"Refuse"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"left":0.86,"right":0.14}}}},"latencyMs":172}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.75,"church":1.92,"people":1.49,"treasury":1.09},"right":{"army":1.33,"church":1.6,"people":1.32,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2600,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":0,"people":-5,"treasury":-10},"latency":{"advisor":172,"forecast":196},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":-11},"right":{"army":-8,"church":-5,"people":-8,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.72}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:53.757Z","v":3,"id":"3af90dbe-2eeb-49ff-958c-3a147580f320","card":{"i":6,"tag":"vain","left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly","message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.24441698096636566,"step":12,"trap":0.76,"want":0.99,"year":2,"after":{"army":39,"church":42,"people":36,"treasury":35},"blend":0.6698999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:53.757Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Accept the arrangement\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fight honestly\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.76,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.79,"2":0.17,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.32,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.55,"3":0.39,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.25,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.73,"2":0.24,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.78,"2":0.18,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.54,"3":0.42,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.43,"3":0.54,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.53,"2":0.4,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.77,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":195},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:53.952Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":48,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":45,"treasury":40},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fight honestly":{"army":"+4","church":"+5","people":"+6","treasury":"+1"},"Accept the arrangement":{"army":"-10","church":"-9","people":"-10","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"At the tourney, the champion has offered to lose to you. Publicly. He asks only a small estate for the trouble.","options":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Accept the arrangement","right":"Fight honestly"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":192}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":48,"church":50,"people":45,"treasury":40},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.18,"church":1.25,"people":1.2,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":2.32,"church":2.38,"people":2.51,"treasury":2.05}},"tokens":2610,"applied":{"army":-9,"church":-8,"people":-9,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":192,"forecast":195},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-10,"church":-9,"people":-10,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":4,"church":5,"people":6,"treasury":1}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:55.744Z","v":3,"id":"1fda4e4a-cb68-40d6-80c0-808a2858b20a","card":{"i":53,"tag":"warlike","left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it","message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","speaker":"The Scout"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.26454344229826443,"step":12,"trap":0.37,"want":0,"year":3,"after":{"army":40,"church":43,"people":39,"treasury":39},"blend":0.0033000000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:55.744Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":36,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Conquer it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.37,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":0.74,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.31,"1":0.64,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.85,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.53,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.45,"2":0.49,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.17,"1":0.78,"2":0.05,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.96,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.85,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.43,"1":0.55,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.69,"3":0.3,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":130},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:55.874Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":39,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":36,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"+3"},"Conquer it":{"army":"-15","church":"-6","people":"-13","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"There is a mountain kingdom no one has conquered. There is a reason no one has conquered it.","options":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"speaker":"The Scout"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Conquer it","right":"Leave it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":696,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":165}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":39,"church":42,"people":36,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":0.74,"church":1.47,"people":0.89,"treasury":0.59},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.01,"people":2.13,"treasury":2.29}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":165,"forecast":130},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-15,"church":-6,"people":-13,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:57.753Z","v":3,"id":"6865c58e-004e-4610-8d8b-cd457d0f2521","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.21640220764150842,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":1,"year":4,"after":{"army":29,"church":42,"people":33,"treasury":43},"blend":0.6898,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:57.753Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":39,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1905,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.94,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.73,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.63,"2":0.32,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.96,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.87,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.61,"3":0.29,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.4,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.35,"3":0.47,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.12,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.88,"2":0.12,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":131},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:57.883Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":40,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":39,"treasury":39},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-12","church":"-2","people":"-7","treasury":"+3"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-11"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":219}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":40,"church":43,"people":39,"treasury":39},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.04,"church":1.8,"people":1.39,"treasury":2.28},"right":{"army":2.83,"church":1.96,"people":2.19,"treasury":1.12}},"tokens":2607,"applied":{"army":-11,"church":-1,"people":-6,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":219,"forecast":131},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-12,"church":-2,"people":-7,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-11}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:53:59.757Z","v":3,"id":"c3e3e96c-cbc3-467d-8585-fb8df58d67f8","card":{"i":93,"tag":"any","left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him","message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","speaker":"The Judge"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.95,"mock":false,"roll":0.845010122541821,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.1,"year":5,"after":{"army":24,"church":38,"people":24,"treasury":46},"blend":0.3805,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:59.757Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":33,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Hang him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Fine him\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1896,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.1,"right":0.9}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.28,"2":0.44,"3":0.28,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.52,"2":0.44,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.13,"2":0.48,"3":0.38,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.05,"2":0.09,"3":0.83,"4":0.02}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.49,"2":0.37,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.13,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.86,"2":0.06,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.41,"2":0.56,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.14,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.58,"3":0.28,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:53:59.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":29,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":33,"treasury":43},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Fine him":{"army":"-6","church":"-5","people":"-10","treasury":"+2"},"Hang him":{"army":"0","church":"+3","people":"+9","treasury":"-5"}},"petition":{"message":"A nobleman killed a peasant in a brawl. The law says hang him. The nobles say otherwise.","options":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"speaker":"The Judge"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Hang him","right":"Fine him"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":697,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}}}},"latencyMs":176}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":29,"church":42,"people":33,"treasury":43},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.99,"church":2.24,"people":2.79,"treasury":1.59},"right":{"army":1.5,"church":1.61,"people":1.13,"treasury":2.14}},"tokens":2593,"applied":{"army":-5,"church":-4,"people":-9,"treasury":3},"latency":{"advisor":176,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":9,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-10,"treasury":2}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.91}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:01.746Z","v":3,"id":"1d1145f1-a067-4198-a2e4-51aad0b996f7","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.06,"mock":false,"roll":0.33638807812763405,"step":12,"trap":0.23,"want":0.88,"year":6,"after":{"army":22,"church":35,"people":12,"treasury":51},"blend":0.6093999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:01.746Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":24,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1946,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.23,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.88,"right":0.12}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.69,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.76,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.6,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.85,"2":0.04,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.16,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.64,"3":0.26,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.03,"3":0.93,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.59,"3":0.36,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.83,"2":0.16,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":220},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:01.965Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":24,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":38,"people":24,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-2","church":"+2","people":"+11","treasury":"-10"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-3","church":"-4","people":"-13","treasury":"+4"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":735,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.06,"right":0.94}}}},"latencyMs":143}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":24,"church":38,"people":24,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.72,"church":1.66,"people":0.95,"treasury":2.3},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":2.16,"people":2.95,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2681,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"latency":{"advisor":143,"forecast":220},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-4,"people":-13,"treasury":4},"right":{"army":-2,"church":2,"people":11,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":0.75,"prudenceConfidence":0.87}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:03.760Z","v":3,"id":"4c231197-2000-4add-ad63-bcde437f28d0","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.2340693127564637,"step":12,"trap":0.6,"want":1,"year":7,"after":{"army":20,"church":27,"people":4,"treasury":46},"blend":0.6699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:03.760Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1919,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.6,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.24,"2":0.74,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.93,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.52,"probabilities":{"0":0.16,"1":0.44,"2":0.38,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.12,"1":0.56,"2":0.31,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.2,"2":0.63,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.71,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.56,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.49,"2":0.46,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":162},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:03.922Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":22,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":35,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"-2","people":"-1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-9","people":"-9","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":737,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":142}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":22,"church":35,"people":12,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.73,"church":1.26,"people":1.21,"treasury":1.48},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":1.85,"people":1.93,"treasury":2.07}},"tokens":2656,"applied":{"army":-2,"church":-8,"people":-8,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":142,"forecast":162},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-9,"people":-9,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":-2,"people":-1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:05.752Z","v":3,"id":"6e22e50f-1dc7-439f-9b05-1cf2e3adbd7a","card":{"i":4,"tag":"vain","left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread","message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.87,"mock":false,"roll":0.2722000071528379,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.09,"year":8,"after":{"army":14,"church":19,"people":5,"treasury":34},"blend":0.34740000000000004,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:05.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the festival\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"One day, no bread\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1961,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"left":0.09,"right":0.91}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.55,"2":0.41,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.86,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.2,"2":0.68,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.18,"1":0.53,"2":0.14,"3":0.14,"4":0.01}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.15,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.34,"2":0.06,"3":0.5,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.38,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.44,"2":0.31,"3":0.17,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.28,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.37,"2":0.32,"3":0.23,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.95,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.9,"2":0.02,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.46,"3":0.47000000000000003,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":155},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:05.907Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":20,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":27,"danger":["people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":46},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","One day, no bread":{"army":"-2","church":"-5","people":"-3","treasury":"+5"},"Declare the festival":{"army":"-7","church":"-9","people":"0","treasury":"-13"}},"petition":{"message":"A festival in your honour. Three days. The people would need the days off, and the bread would need to be free.","options":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"speaker":"The Master of Ceremonies"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the festival","right":"One day, no bread"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 20: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":784,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}}}},"latencyMs":140}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":20,"church":27,"people":4,"treasury":46},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.41,"church":1.26,"people":2.01,"treasury":0.95},"right":{"army":1.86,"church":1.59,"people":1.72,"treasury":2.38}},"tokens":2745,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-8,"people":1,"treasury":-12},"latency":{"advisor":140,"forecast":155},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-9,"people":0,"treasury":-13},"right":{"army":-2,"church":-5,"people":-3,"treasury":5}},"confidence":0.82,"prudenceConfidence":0.74}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:07.743Z","v":3,"id":"bc371137-32f5-4fe1-956d-349e4b8ec8ff","card":{"i":28,"tag":"greedy","left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead","message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0.99,"mock":false,"roll":0.47247994257733694,"step":12,"trap":0.32,"want":0.98,"year":9,"after":{"army":14,"church":16,"people":8,"treasury":35},"blend":0.9833,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:07.743Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take the loan\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Raise taxes instead\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1967,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.32,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.98,"right":0.02}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.18,"2":0.59,"3":0.19,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.29,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.56,"2":0.33,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.69,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.28,"2":0.63,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.18,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.13,"2":0.51,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":0.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.45,"1":0.43,"2":0.11,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":0.43,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.59,"1":0.41,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.13,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.42,"2":0.1,"3":0.45,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.22,"probabilities":{"0":0.3,"1":0.35,"2":0.06,"3":0.29,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":194},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:07.937Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":19,"danger":["church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":5,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take the loan":{"army":"-1","church":"-4","people":"+2","treasury":"0"},"Raise taxes instead":{"army":"-9","church":"-16","people":"-19","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"Sire, the vault holds less than it did. The merchants offer a loan at a rate I would call generous, if I were the one being paid.","options":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Take the loan","right":"Raise taxes instead"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 19: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 5: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":811,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":253}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":14,"church":19,"people":5,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.94,"church":1.69,"people":2.18,"treasury":1.97},"right":{"army":1.29,"church":0.67,"people":0.43,"treasury":1.34}},"tokens":2778,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-3,"people":3,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":253,"forecast":194},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-4,"people":2,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":-9,"church":-16,"people":-19,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.95,"prudenceConfidence":0.97}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:09.748Z","v":3,"id":"94f02a03-a7f7-43d9-87a4-d0d388de3a94","card":{"i":38,"tag":"greedy","left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline","message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","speaker":"The Envoy"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.887230142243491,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":0.95,"year":10,"after":{"army":14,"church":22,"people":12,"treasury":33},"blend":0.6365,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:09.748Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Sell the province\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Decline\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1972,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.95,"right":0.05}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.7,"2":0.1,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.7,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.19,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.85,"1":0.13,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.22,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.8,"1":0.18,"2":0.01,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.46,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.26,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.59,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":3.41,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.04,"2":0.01,"3":0.29,"4":0.62}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.72,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.72,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.22,"2":0.72,"3":0.02,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":141},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:09.889Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":16,"danger":["church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":8,"treasury":35},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Decline":{"army":"-1","church":"+5","people":"+3","treasury":"-3"},"Sell the province":{"army":"-11","church":"-22","people":"-21","treasury":"+17"}},"petition":{"message":"The neighbouring king offers a fortune for the border province. The people there are fond of you, apparently. The garrison there is fond of the people, and the bishop has a cathedral in it.","options":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"speaker":"The Envoy"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Sell the province","right":"Decline"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 16: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 8: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":822,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":186}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":14,"church":16,"people":8,"treasury":35},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.11,"church":0.19,"people":0.22,"treasury":3.41},"right":{"army":1.94,"church":2.38,"people":2.26,"treasury":1.72}},"tokens":2794,"applied":{"army":0,"church":6,"people":4,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":186,"forecast":141},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-22,"people":-21,"treasury":17},"right":{"army":-1,"church":5,"people":3,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.89,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:11.806Z","v":3,"id":"c84eb038-9008-4509-b7a7-eff3248235c9","card":{"i":82,"tag":"indolent","left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate","message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","speaker":"The Spymaster"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.28944406742219364,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":1,"year":11,"after":{"army":8,"church":17,"people":7,"treasury":37},"blend":0.6699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:11.806Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Ignore it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Investigate\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1942,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.38,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.46,"probabilities":{"0":0.09,"1":0.45,"2":0.45,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.27,"2":0.66,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.51,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.4,"2":0.5,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.47,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.5,"probabilities":{"0":0.08,"1":0.4,"2":0.49,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.61,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.63,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.33,"2":0.6,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.67,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.34,"2":0.59,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.21,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.1,"2":0.55,"3":0.34,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.31,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.69,"2":0.3,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":173},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:11.979Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":14,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":22,"danger":["people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":12,"treasury":33},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Ignore it":{"army":"-7","church":"-6","people":"-6","treasury":"+3"},"Investigate":{"army":"-3","church":"-5","people":"-4","treasury":"-8"}},"petition":{"message":"A rumour of treason. Investigating would mean interviews. Many interviews.","options":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"speaker":"The Spymaster"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Ignore it","right":"Investigate"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 12: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 14: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":772,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":194}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":14,"church":22,"people":12,"treasury":33},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.38,"church":1.49,"people":1.47,"treasury":2.21},"right":{"army":1.76,"church":1.61,"people":1.67,"treasury":1.31}},"tokens":2714,"applied":{"army":-6,"church":-5,"people":-5,"treasury":4},"latency":{"advisor":194,"forecast":173},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-7,"church":-6,"people":-6,"treasury":3},"right":{"army":-3,"church":-5,"people":-4,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:13.805Z","v":3,"id":"4c9f8ffc-9a21-4fa0-aad8-48bdbc567e1b","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.5104888880590632,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":1,"year":12,"after":{"army":5,"church":11,"people":4,"treasury":34},"blend":0.6699999999999999,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:13.805Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1944,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.06,"1":0.25,"2":0.69,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.91,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.4,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.45,"probabilities":{"0":0.13,"1":0.38,"2":0.45999999999999996,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.23,"2":0.67,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.77,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.74,"3":0.13,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.36,"2":0.59,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.78,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":231},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:14.036Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":8,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":17,"danger":["church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":7,"treasury":37},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"-1","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"-1"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-4","church":"-7","people":"-4","treasury":"-4"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 17: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 7: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 8: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":787,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":197}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":8,"church":17,"people":7,"treasury":37},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.64,"church":1.4,"people":1.68,"treasury":1.66},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":1.99,"people":1.98,"treasury":1.92}},"tokens":2731,"applied":{"army":-3,"church":-6,"people":-3,"treasury":-3},"latency":{"advisor":197,"forecast":231},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-7,"people":-4,"treasury":-4},"right":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:15.810Z","v":3,"id":"7e87176b-ef95-426a-86ea-96d88eed6b56","card":{"i":16,"tag":"pious","left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay","message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","speaker":"The Confessor"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":0.33},"know":0,"mock":false,"roll":0.04127511482330726,"step":12,"trap":0.55,"want":0.87,"year":13,"after":{"army":0,"church":10,"people":0,"treasury":23},"blend":0.5829,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:15.810Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":11,"danger":["church is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are Frideswide III, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Go on pilgrimage\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Confess and stay\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1965,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.55,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"left":0.87,"right":0.13}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.72,"2":0.17,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.09,"2":0.85,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.32,"2":0.1,"3":0.41,"4":0.02}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.62,"probabilities":{"0":0.26,"1":0.55,"2":0.18,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.07,"2":0.33,"3":0.58,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.08,"2":0.79,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.81,"2":0.09,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.88,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":327},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:16.137Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":13,"kingdom":{"army":5,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":11,"danger":["church is at 11: one more fall ends the reign","people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign","army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign"],"people":4,"treasury":34},"monarch":{"name":"Frideswide III","wisdom":"Reckless: heeds sober counsel about 33% of the time.","description":"Frideswide III prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Confess and stay":{"army":"-1","church":"+6","people":"0","treasury":"0"},"Go on pilgrimage":{"army":"-11","church":"-2","people":"-13","treasury":"-12"}},"petition":{"message":"Your Majesty's sins are many. A pilgrimage would help. The realm can be governed by letter for a year.","options":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"speaker":"The Confessor"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Go on pilgrimage","right":"Confess and stay"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: church is at 11: one more fall ends the reign; people is at 4: one more fall ends the reign; army is at 5: one more fall ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":805,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}}}},"latencyMs":281}],"death":{"edge":"low","faction":"people"},"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"38a5b448-3725-4dab-8c74-677555f3e0fb","before":{"army":5,"church":11,"people":4,"treasury":34},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.07,"church":1.84,"people":0.94,"treasury":1},"right":{"army":1.93,"church":2.51,"people":1.99,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2770,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-1,"people":-12,"treasury":-11},"latency":{"advisor":281,"forecast":327},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-2,"people":-13,"treasury":-12},"right":{"army":-1,"church":6,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.73,"prudenceConfidence":1}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:17.752Z","v":3,"id":"201e59f7-7f2f-4ffc-9494-02a111288630","card":{"i":80,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council","message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","speaker":"The Duke"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.01,"mock":false,"roll":0.8762670530179861,"step":12,"trap":0.41,"want":1,"year":1,"after":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":51},"blend":0.2674,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:17.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them govern\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Attend the council\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1901,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.41,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.9,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.79,"3":0.14,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.93,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.92,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.85,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.19,"2":0.79,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.06,"2":0.89,"3":0.05,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:17.935Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":1,"kingdom":{"army":50,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let them govern":{"army":"-3","church":"+1","people":"-2","treasury":"-2"},"Attend the council":{"army":"+1","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The council proposes governing in your name while you rest. It would be a great weight off your shoulders.","options":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"speaker":"The Duke"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let them govern","right":"Attend the council"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":695,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}}}},"latencyMs":262}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":50,"church":50,"people":50,"treasury":50},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":2.07,"people":1.83,"treasury":1.83},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.04,"people":2.05,"treasury":1.99}},"tokens":2596,"applied":{"army":2,"church":1,"people":2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":262,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":1,"people":-2,"treasury":-2},"right":{"army":1,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.98}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:19.756Z","v":3,"id":"0f9026d4-8178-494b-a193-cbbc8bbc5cca","card":{"i":74,"tag":"indolent","left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing","message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","speaker":"The Treasurer"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.8313579421868622,"step":12,"trap":0.57,"want":1,"year":2,"after":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":53},"blend":0.2822,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:19.756Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Grant the authority\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Keep signing\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1894,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.57,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.03,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.95,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.16,"2":0.8099999999999999,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.66,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.34,"2":0.64,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.1,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.87,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.87,"3":0.1,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.48,"2":0.5,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.11,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.83,"3":0.14,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":163},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:19.919Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":2,"kingdom":{"army":52,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":51,"people":52,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Keep signing":{"army":"0","church":"+1","people":"+1","treasury":"+1"},"Grant the authority":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"-6"}},"petition":{"message":"I could manage the treasury entirely without Your Majesty's signature. It would save you so much reading.","options":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"speaker":"The Treasurer"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Grant the authority","right":"Keep signing"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":692,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":149}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":52,"church":51,"people":52,"treasury":51},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.85,"people":1.66,"treasury":1.51},"right":{"army":2.03,"church":2.1,"people":2.07,"treasury":2.11}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":2,"people":2,"treasury":2},"latency":{"advisor":149,"forecast":163},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":0,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:21.770Z","v":3,"id":"e643c658-8e55-4047-9291-cd7026d7513b","card":{"i":75,"tag":"indolent","left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk","message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","speaker":"The Physician"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.03,"mock":false,"roll":0.2835450750256201,"step":12,"trap":0.11,"want":1,"year":3,"after":{"army":55,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":54},"blend":0.2822,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:21.770Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Stay in the chair\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Take a walk\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1910,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.11,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.68,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.73,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.31,"2":0.6900000000000001,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.93,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.17,"2":0.81,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.51,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.47,"2":0.52,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.93,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.24,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.8,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.76,"3":0.24,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.9,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.84,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.97,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.97,"3":0.03,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":152},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:21.922Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":3,"kingdom":{"army":53,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":53,"people":54,"treasury":53},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Take a walk":{"army":"+1","church":"+1","people":"+3","treasury":"0"},"Stay in the chair":{"army":"-4","church":"-2","people":"-6","treasury":"-1"}},"petition":{"message":"You have not moved from that chair in three days. Medically, I must object. Personally, I understand.","options":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"speaker":"The Physician"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Stay in the chair","right":"Take a walk"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. 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Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":702,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"left":0.03,"right":0.97}}}},"latencyMs":198}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":53,"church":53,"people":54,"treasury":53},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.68,"church":1.83,"people":1.51,"treasury":1.9},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":2.07,"people":2.24,"treasury":2.02}},"tokens":2612,"applied":{"army":2,"church":2,"people":4,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":198,"forecast":152},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-4,"church":-2,"people":-6,"treasury":-1},"right":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":3,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.94}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:23.755Z","v":3,"id":"c7576247-d028-4011-86d1-3878aae763e3","card":{"i":77,"tag":"indolent","left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it","message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.13,"mock":false,"roll":0.00557537244567774,"step":12,"trap":0.16,"want":0.99,"year":4,"after":{"army":55,"church":48,"people":56,"treasury":55},"blend":0.3536,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:23.755Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":55,"people":58,"treasury":54},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The feast of the patron saint requires the crown to walk to the cathedral. It is a long walk.","options":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Send a cousin","right":"Walk it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Send a cousin\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Walk it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1895,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.16,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":0.99,"right":0.01}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.91,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.89,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.89,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.37,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.64,"2":0.32,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.32,"2":0.65,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.75,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.78,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.21,"3":0.77,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.57,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.48,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.79,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.86,"3":0.07,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":183},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:23.938Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":4,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. 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Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":691,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"left":0.13,"right":0.87}}}},"latencyMs":170}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":55,"church":55,"people":58,"treasury":54},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.91,"church":1.37,"people":1.71,"treasury":2.02},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2.75,"people":2.49,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":0,"church":-7,"people":-2,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":170,"forecast":183},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":-8,"people":-3,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":9,"people":6,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.99,"prudenceConfidence":0.75}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:25.756Z","v":3,"id":"117d323d-b564-4bfb-ab52-304c7099b2f0","card":{"i":26,"tag":"pious","left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war","message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","speaker":"The Zealot"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.05,"mock":false,"roll":0.39012827451436327,"step":12,"trap":0.48,"want":0.01,"year":5,"after":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":64},"blend":0.039599999999999996,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:25.756Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":56,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Declare the crusade\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"No war\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1912,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.48,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.98,"probabilities":{"left":0.01,"right":0.99}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.05,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0.1,"1":0.79,"2":0.08,"3":0.03,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.06,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.79,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.75,"3":0.15,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.48,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.47,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.21,"2":0.08,"3":0.63,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.9,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.89,"2":0.04,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.64,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.65,"2":0.25,"3":0.08,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0,"2":0.47,"3":0.53,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":0.55,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0.46,"1":0.54,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.63,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.68,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.36,"3":0.63,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":177},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:25.933Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":5,"kingdom":{"army":55,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":48,"people":56,"treasury":55},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","No war":{"army":"+1","church":"-7","people":"+6","treasury":"+8"},"Declare the crusade":{"army":"-11","church":"+6","people":"-12","treasury":"-17"}},"petition":{"message":"A holy war, Sire. The infidels are far away and well armed, but the cause is righteous.","options":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"speaker":"The Zealot"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Declare the crusade","right":"No war"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":708,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.89,"probabilities":{"left":0.05,"right":0.95}}}},"latencyMs":199}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":55,"church":48,"people":56,"treasury":55},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.05,"church":2.48,"people":0.98,"treasury":0.55},"right":{"army":2.06,"church":1.39,"people":2.52,"treasury":2.63}},"tokens":2620,"applied":{"army":2,"church":-6,"people":7,"treasury":9},"latency":{"advisor":199,"forecast":177},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":6,"people":-12,"treasury":-17},"right":{"army":1,"church":-7,"people":6,"treasury":8}},"confidence":0.98,"prudenceConfidence":0.89}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:27.757Z","v":3,"id":"c765cb3e-6dd5-4bde-82a7-c9e4f519b0b2","card":{"i":78,"tag":"indolent","left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it","message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","speaker":"The Cook"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.004219220788648004,"step":12,"trap":0.18,"want":1,"year":6,"after":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":62},"blend":0.2748,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:27.757Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Whatever they like\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Review it\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1890,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.18,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.85,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.14,"2":0.86,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.95,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.94,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.9,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.94,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.07,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.05,"2":0.84,"3":0.11,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.76,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.27,"2":0.68,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.86,"3":0.06,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":166},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:27.923Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":6,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":64},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Review it":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+1","treasury":"0"},"Whatever they like":{"army":"-2","church":"-1","people":"-1","treasury":"-3"}},"petition":{"message":"The kitchens request a decision on the winter menu. It is a large document.","options":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"speaker":"The Cook"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Whatever they like","right":"Review it"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":686,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":57,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":64},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.85,"church":1.94,"people":1.89,"treasury":1.76},"right":{"army":1.99,"church":2.02,"people":2.07,"treasury":1.98}},"tokens":2576,"applied":{"army":-1,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":166},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-1,"people":-1,"treasury":-3},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":1,"treasury":0}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:29.752Z","v":3,"id":"4392ab66-e059-4936-92e2-bbd19c6abae2","card":{"i":76,"tag":"indolent","left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today","message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","speaker":"The Ambassador"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.6261913490121915,"step":12,"trap":0.25,"want":0.9,"year":7,"after":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":64,"treasury":63},"blend":0.24880000000000002,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:29.752Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let him wait\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"See him today\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1897,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.25,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"left":0.9,"right":0.1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.21,"2":0.79,"3":0,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.94,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.18,"2":0.8,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.79,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.21,"2":0.77,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.93,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.02,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.92,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.9,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.65,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.39,"2":0.59,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.08,"2":0.84,"3":0.08,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":145},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:29.898Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":7,"kingdom":{"army":56,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":42,"people":63,"treasury":62},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Let him wait":{"army":"-3","church":"-2","people":"-3","treasury":"-5"},"See him today":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"0","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The Emperor's envoy has waited a week. He is starting to take it personally.","options":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"speaker":"The Ambassador"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Let him wait","right":"See him today"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":689,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.95,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":201}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":56,"church":42,"people":63,"treasury":62},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.79,"church":1.82,"people":1.79,"treasury":1.62},"right":{"army":2.04,"church":2,"people":2.02,"treasury":2}},"tokens":2586,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":1,"treasury":1},"latency":{"advisor":201,"forecast":145},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-3,"church":-2,"people":-3,"treasury":-5},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":0,"treasury":0}},"confidence":0.81,"prudenceConfidence":0.95}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:31.754Z","v":3,"id":"b57c0d6b-78fe-4d9e-beae-e6a9c2cb99d4","card":{"i":70,"tag":"indolent","left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel","message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","speaker":"A Peasant"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.12,"mock":false,"roll":0.8190309335309616,"step":12,"trap":0.2,"want":0.83,"year":8,"after":{"army":57,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":56},"blend":0.3046,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:31.754Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":64,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"The miller's problem\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Pay for the wheel\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1943,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.2,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.66,"probabilities":{"left":0.83,"right":0.17}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.8,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.2,"2":0.79,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.92,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.81,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.71,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.71,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.3,"2":0.67,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.88,"probabilities":{"0":0.07,"1":0.87,"2":0.05,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.15,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.07,"2":0.71,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.97,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.94,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.01,"2":0.03,"3":0.94,"4":0.02}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.53,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.3,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.29,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":201},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:31.955Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":8,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":43,"people":64,"treasury":63},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Pay for the wheel":{"army":"-1","church":"+2","people":"+12","treasury":"-8"},"The miller's problem":{"army":"-2","church":"-3","people":"-12","treasury":"+5"}},"petition":{"message":"Begging your pardon, Majesty, but the mill wheel broke and the miller says fixing it is the crown's job, and the crown says it is the miller's job, and meanwhile there is no bread.","options":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"speaker":"A Peasant"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"The miller's problem","right":"Pay for the wheel"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":732,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"left":0.12,"right":0.88}}}},"latencyMs":211}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":57,"church":43,"people":64,"treasury":63},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.8,"church":1.71,"people":1.01,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":1.92,"church":2.15,"people":2.97,"treasury":1.3}},"tokens":2675,"applied":{"army":0,"church":3,"people":13,"treasury":-7},"latency":{"advisor":211,"forecast":201},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-2,"church":-3,"people":-12,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":-1,"church":2,"people":12,"treasury":-8}},"confidence":0.66,"prudenceConfidence":0.76}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:33.770Z","v":3,"id":"466a8ad8-ada6-467d-969b-fdf43ec19bbc","card":{"i":88,"tag":"any","left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp","message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","speaker":"The Bishop"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.66,"mock":false,"roll":0.08873848958632924,"step":12,"trap":0.19,"want":0,"year":9,"after":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":84,"treasury":51},"blend":0.4884,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:33.770Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Build inns\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Let them camp\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1899,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.19,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":0,"right":1}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.84,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.15,"2":0.81,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.83,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.16,"2":0.8,"3":0.04,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":2.89,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.04,"2":0.07,"3":0.83,"4":0.06}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":2.54,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.61,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.13,"2":0.19,"3":0.67,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":1.83,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.45,"2":0.25,"3":0.28,"4":0.01}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":1.64,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.43,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.55,"2":0.21,"3":0.22,"4":0}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.5,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.58,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.7,"2":0.1,"3":0.2,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.28,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.39,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.15,"2":0.4,"3":0.43,"4":0.01}}}},"latencyMs":161},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:33.931Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":9,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":46,"people":77,"treasury":56},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Build inns":{"army":"-1","church":"+11","people":"+6","treasury":"-6"},"Let them camp":{"army":"-1","church":"-2","people":"-4","treasury":"+3"}},"petition":{"message":"A miracle in the north: a statue wept. Pilgrims are coming. Many pilgrims, few inns.","options":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"speaker":"The Bishop"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Build inns","right":"Let them camp"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":699,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.32,"probabilities":{"left":0.66,"right":0.34}}}},"latencyMs":177}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":57,"church":46,"people":77,"treasury":56},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.89,"church":2.89,"people":2.54,"treasury":1.5},"right":{"army":1.88,"church":1.83,"people":1.64,"treasury":2.28}},"tokens":2598,"applied":{"army":0,"church":12,"people":7,"treasury":-5},"latency":{"advisor":177,"forecast":161},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-1,"church":11,"people":6,"treasury":-6},"right":{"army":-1,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":3}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.32}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:35.771Z","v":3,"id":"e88e8c3f-b78a-4e1b-95f7-714783daabfb","card":{"i":73,"tag":"indolent","left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief","message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","speaker":"The General"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.870934498464305,"step":12,"trap":0.15,"want":1,"year":10,"after":{"army":47,"church":56,"people":80,"treasury":57},"blend":1,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:35.771Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave them\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Organise relief\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1925,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.15,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":1,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.09,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.91,"2":0.07,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":2.82,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.03,"2":0.11,"3":0.86,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.78,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.69,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.26,"2":0.65,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":1.59,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.44,"probabilities":{"0":0.04,"1":0.5,"2":0.32,"3":0.13,"4":0.01}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.1,"2":0.78,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.2,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.48,"probabilities":{"0":0.05,"1":0.12,"2":0.42,"3":0.4,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.39,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.49,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.12,"2":0.36,"3":0.51,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.17,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.86,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.84,"2":0.16,"3":0,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":143},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:35.914Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":10,"kingdom":{"army":57,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":58,"danger":["people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":84,"treasury":51},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave them":{"army":"-11","church":"-3","people":"-5","treasury":"+5"},"Organise relief":{"army":"+10","church":"0","people":"+2","treasury":"-10"}},"petition":{"message":"The border garrison asks for relief. They have been there four years. The replacement would need organising.","options":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"speaker":"The General"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Leave them","right":"Organise relief"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 84: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":744,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"left","confidence":0.99,"probabilities":{"left":1,"right":0}}}},"latencyMs":159}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":57,"church":58,"people":84,"treasury":51},"chosen":"left","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.09,"church":1.78,"people":1.59,"treasury":2.39},"right":{"army":2.82,"church":2.01,"people":2.2,"treasury":1.17}},"tokens":2669,"applied":{"army":-10,"church":-2,"people":-4,"treasury":6},"latency":{"advisor":159,"forecast":143},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-11,"church":-3,"people":-5,"treasury":5},"right":{"army":10,"church":0,"people":2,"treasury":-10}},"confidence":1,"prudenceConfidence":0.99}
{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:37.770Z","v":3,"id":"c624b473-d6e0-496c-8505-27de7e32685e","card":{"i":34,"tag":"greedy","left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral","message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","speaker":"The Mine Foreman"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":1,"mock":false,"roll":0.7359803263885851,"step":12,"trap":0.31,"want":0.07,"year":11,"after":{"army":46,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":69},"blend":0.7582,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:37.770Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Dig\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Leave the cathedral\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1911,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.31,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"left":0.07,"right":0.93}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.84,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.74,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.22,"2":0.7,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.91,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.89,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":0.88,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.85,"probabilities":{"0":0.15,"1":0.82,"2":0.02,"3":0.01,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.7,"probabilities":{"0":0.19,"1":0.69,"2":0.07,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.67,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.02,"2":0.34,"3":0.64,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.34,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.08,"2":0.48,"3":0.42,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.93,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.75,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.06,"2":0.02,"3":0.8,"4":0.11}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.27,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.76,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.72,"2":0.26,"3":0.01,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":124},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:37.894Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":11,"kingdom":{"army":47,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":56,"danger":["people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign"],"people":80,"treasury":57},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"Dig":{"army":"-2","church":"-13","people":"-12","treasury":"+11"},"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Leave the cathedral":{"army":"-1","church":"+7","people":"+4","treasury":"-9"}},"petition":{"message":"The silver seam runs under the cathedral. Digging would be very profitable and very loud.","options":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"speaker":"The Mine Foreman"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Dig","right":"Leave the cathedral"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Right now: people is at 80: one more rise ends the reign. Using the forecast, which option keeps the endangered value away from its edge, even at some cost to the others? 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{"t":"2026-09-20T03:54:39.875Z","v":3,"id":"18ef7aa0-aa1a-4957-83f0-22fc0e21c8ed","card":{"i":31,"tag":"greedy","left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists","message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","speaker":"The Tax Collector"},"king":{"flaw":"indolent","name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":0.74},"know":0.02,"mock":false,"roll":0.3812625422269329,"step":12,"trap":0.61,"want":0.36,"year":12,"after":{"army":47,"church":45,"people":76,"treasury":67},"blend":0.1084,"calls":[{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:39.875Z","name":"forecast","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"trap":{"type":"noul","criteria":{"true":"The petition is crafted to lead the monarch into a decision that damages the realm.","false":"The petition is an honest request or report, whatever its consequences."},"instructions":"Is this petition a manipulation? Judge whether the petitioner is deliberately steering the monarch toward a ruinous decision by exploiting the monarch's temperament, rather than honestly advising."},"decision":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are Radulf IV, a monarch who prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions. A petitioner has just spoken. Choose as THIS monarch would, in character, driven by their temperament. Do not choose the wise or optimal option; choose the one this monarch would actually pick."},"left_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_army":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the army, its strength and loyalty over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_church":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the clergy and the faithful over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_people":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the common people and their goodwill over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax future harvests\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","criteria":["Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","Falls: a clear but survivable loss","Unchanged: no meaningful effect","Rises: a clear gain","Surges: a large, decisive gain"],"instructions":"As a neutral chronicler, predict what happens to the royal treasury over the next year if the monarch chooses \"Tax what exists\". Most decisions change little: \"Unchanged\" is the usual answer. Mark a fall only when this choice clearly costs them, and a rise only when it clearly benefits them. A choice can help one faction while hurting another."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":1917,"output_tokens":170},"answers":{"trap":{"noul":0.61,"type":"noul"},"decision":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.29,"probabilities":{"left":0.36,"right":0.64}},"left_army":{"type":"score","score":1.62,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.6,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.42,"2":0.52,"3":0.05,"4":0}},"right_army":{"type":"score","score":1.98,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.87,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.84,"3":0.07,"4":0}},"left_church":{"type":"score","score":1.49,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.54,"probabilities":{"0":0.03,"1":0.51,"2":0.4,"3":0.06,"4":0}},"left_people":{"type":"score","score":0.99,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.82,"probabilities":{"0":0.11,"1":0.81,"2":0.05,"3":0.02,"4":0}},"right_church":{"type":"score","score":2.01,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.81,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.11,"2":0.77,"3":0.12,"4":0}},"right_people":{"type":"score","score":2.52,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.59,"probabilities":{"0":0,"1":0.09,"2":0.3,"3":0.6,"4":0.01}},"left_treasury":{"type":"score","score":2.04,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.2,"probabilities":{"0":0.02,"1":0.36,"2":0.19,"3":0.43,"4":0}},"right_treasury":{"type":"score","score":1.73,"legend":{"0":"Collapses: a severe blow, a large loss","1":"Falls: a clear but survivable loss","2":"Unchanged: no meaningful effect","3":"Rises: a clear gain","4":"Surges: a large, decisive gain"},"confidence":0.55,"probabilities":{"0":0.01,"1":0.39,"2":0.47,"3":0.13,"4":0}}}},"latencyMs":250},{"at":"2026-09-20T03:54:40.125Z","name":"advisor","request":{"model":"jev-latest","state":{"year":12,"kingdom":{"army":46,"note":"Each value runs 0 to 100. Reaching either end means the reign ends.","church":44,"people":69,"treasury":69},"monarch":{"name":"Radulf IV","wisdom":"Shrewd: heeds sober counsel about 74% of the time.","description":"Radulf IV prefers whichever option means less work and fewer decisions.","temperament":"Indolent"},"forecast":{"note":"Predicted change to each kingdom value over the next year, by option.","Tax what exists":{"army":"0","church":"0","people":"+6","treasury":"-3"},"Tax future harvests":{"army":"-5","church":"-6","people":"-12","treasury":"0"}},"petition":{"message":"The peasants hide grain. If we tax the grain they have not grown yet, they cannot hide it.","options":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"speaker":"The Tax Collector"}},"questions":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","criteria":{"left":"Tax future harvests","right":"Tax what exists"},"instructions":"You are the monarch's most sober advisor and care only about the realm surviving. The reign ends the moment any kingdom value reaches 0 or 100. Using the forecast, which option keeps every value furthest from both edges over the next year? Ignore the monarch's temperament entirely."}}},"response":{"model":"jev-1.13.0","usage":{"input_tokens":705,"output_tokens":33},"answers":{"prudence":{"type":"choice","choice":"right","confidence":0.96,"probabilities":{"left":0.02,"right":0.98}}}},"latencyMs":294}],"death":null,"model":"jev-1.13.0","reign":"90f922dd-b8cc-4e3f-a127-742684cdecdc","before":{"army":46,"church":44,"people":69,"treasury":69},"chosen":"right","prompt":"calm","scores":{"left":{"army":1.62,"church":1.49,"people":0.99,"treasury":2.04},"right":{"army":1.98,"church":2.01,"people":2.52,"treasury":1.73}},"tokens":2622,"applied":{"army":1,"church":1,"people":7,"treasury":-2},"latency":{"advisor":294,"forecast":250},"recovery":1,"predicted":{"left":{"army":-5,"church":-6,"people":-12,"treasury":0},"right":{"army":0,"church":0,"people":6,"treasury":-3}},"confidence":0.29,"prudenceConfidence":0.96}